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Moore’s Law is Unconstitutional
Walden C. RhinesCHAIRMAN & CEO
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 20052
Moore’s Law
Source: Intel, Intel Developers Forum, 2/2003
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 20053
Moore’s LawThe Number of Transistors
Doubles every year ~ April 1965Doubles every 2 years ~ December 1975Doubles every 18 months ~ May 1997
“… In about a decade, were going to see a distinct slowing … it might be half as fast” ~ May 1997“We’re starting to shrink chips less rapidly than we have done in the past” ~ July 2002“The fact that we have been able to accelerate it by a third just amazes me” ~ Nov 2002“Moore’s Law good for another decade” May 2003
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 20054
Moore’s “Law” – An Empirical ObservationLaws Empirical Observations
• Newton’s Laws of Motion
• Laws of Thermodynamics
• The Code of Hammurabi
• Stock market prices and women’s dress lengths rise and fall together
• Ratio of I/O pins to logic gates is constant ~ 1.5 *
• Revenue per unit area of silicon is a constant
Note: * Rents Law k = I / (C)0.5
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 20055
“No Exponential is Forever” Physical Limits of Scaling
1999 ~ 1000 electrons available to switch a transistor2003 ~ 20 atoms in the smallest layer of a Pentium chip2010 ~ 8 electrons available to switch a transistor2020 ~ < 1 electron available to switch a transistor
Quantum collapse ~ 5 atoms
Source: California Computer News, 2003 & Physics Today, January 2000, “No Exponential is Forever” Gordon Moore, June 2003
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 20056
So Why Has Moore’s Law Been A Useful Approximation for 40 Years?
Based upon a basic “Law” of nature – The Learning CurveMoore’s Law is a special case of the learning curve when two things are true:1. Cumulative transistors produced
increase exponentially with time(e.g. 2x cum volume => fixed % cost decrease)
2. Almost all cost reduction comes from shrinking feature sizes (and growing wafer diameter)
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 20057
Learning CurvesCost per unit decreases by a fixed percent every time total cumulative volume doubles
Applies to all products (over centuries) when measured in constant currency
Used to predict future costs— Aircraft industry— Semiconductor industry
Also true for subsystem or component costs and improvements in reliability, quality, yield, etc.
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 20058
Integrated Circuit Learning Curve
$1.00
$10.00
$100.00
1 10 100 1000Industry Total Accumulated Volume ( million units )
Pric
e pe
r uni
t ( $
Con
stan
t )
Source: Boston Consulting Group
8
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 20059
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Cumulative Bit Volume (Bits x 10 12 )
DRAM Price Learning Curve
1978 19791980
19811982
19841983
1985
19871986
1988 19891990
19911992
1993
1994
1995
1997
1996
19991998
2001
2000
20022003
Excess Capacity Price Erosion
Strong DemandWeak Supply
Excess Capacity Price Erosion
Source: ICE Status 1998 & 2003 McClean Report IC Insights
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200510
Personal Computer Learning CurvePersonal Computer 2003 Cost per Mips
0.0
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
1,000.0
10,000.0
100,000.0
10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000Cumulative Unit Shipments (thousands of units)
2003 Cost/Mips
Source: Hans Moravec, Carnegie Mellon University & Woodrow Federal Reserve Bank & Dataquest “The Billionth PC Ships” 6/02
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200511
Japanese Beer
$10.00
$100.00
1000 10000 100000Industry Total Accumulated Volume ( million tons )
$0.20
$0.50
1951 1960 1968
Source: Mentor Graphics
11
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200512
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1.E+08
1.E+09
1.E+10
1.E+11
1.E+12
1.E+13
1.E+14
1.E+15
1.E+16
1.E+17
1.E+18
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Transistors Shipped/Year vs Semiconductor Revenue
Transistors/Year
Semiconductor Revenue/Year
Source: Semiconductor Industry Association
Non-Linearity of Growth in Transistor Consumption Led to Moore’s Law Adjustments
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200513
Reduction in Cost per Function WillContinue Forever…
Semiconductor Learning Curve
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
1.00E-03
1.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.00E+00
1.00E+01
1.00E+02
1.00E+03
1.00E+00 1.00E+02 1.00E+04 1.00E+06 1.00E+08 1.00E+10 1.00E+12 1.00E+14 1.00E+16 1.00E+18 1.00E+20
Cummulative Transistors Shipped
Semiconductor Learning Curve1959 – 2000 … Adjusted for Inflation
Source: Mentor Graphics, SIA, Woodrow Federal Reserve Bank
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200514
Methods for Achieving the Cost Reduction Will Change
Changes in system design and component packaging & assemblyFixed costs of design, verification, software and toolingPower and performance constraints on cost reductionManufacturing methods
— Test— Design-for-manufacturability
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200515
Methods for Achieving the Cost Reduction Will Change
Changes in system design and component packaging & assemblyFixed costs of design, verification, software and toolingPower and performance constraints on cost reductionManufacturing methods
— Test— Design-for-manufacturability
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200516
Innovative Assembly & Packaging of Multiple Chips Will Drive Lowest Cost
Source: Amkor Technology
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200517
Changing Printed Circuit Board Technology Is Handling More of the Complexity Burden
Des
ign
Com
plex
ity
10+GigaBit10+GigaBit
MicroViasMicroVias
Embedded Actives & Passives
Embedded Actives & Passives
Multiple 1500+ Pin
FPGAs
Multiple 1500+ Pin
FPGAsGlobal Team
Design
Global Team
Design
1990 2000 2010
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200518
Methods for Achieving the Cost Reduction Will Change
Changes in system design and component packaging & assemblyFixed costs of design, verification, software and toolingPower and performance constraints on cost reductionManufacturing methods
— Test— Design-for-manufacturability
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200519
The $30M System-on-Chip (SoC)
CPUCore
Original HardwareContent
OriginalSoftwareContent
Glue Logic
BlueToothController
IR &RS232
Compression& Encryption
Engine
DSPCore
Composite SoC
Design costs $15 - $50 MVerification is 50-70% of effort$1M+ Tooling cost
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200520
Big Design Cost Requires Big MarketsR&D Spending $30MR&D as % of Revenue 20%
Revenue $150M
R&D Spending $30MR&D as % of Revenue 20%
Revenue $150MMarket Share 10%
Resulting Market $1.5B
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200521
Photomask Costs Are Increasing
$102$167
$310
$985
$62826 2830 32 34
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
0.35m 0.25m 0.18m 0.13m 0.09m
Process
($T
hous
ands
)
05101520253035404550
Tota
l Mas
k La
yers
Mask Set Cost Mask Layers
Source: IC Insights, 1/2003
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200522
Software Development a Growing Part of System Design
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
.35 micron .25 micron .18 micron .13 micron 90 nm
Des
ign
Cos
t ($M
illio
n)
Hardware Design Cost Software Design Cost
2 Million Logic Transistors
80 Million Logic Transistors
40 Million Logic Transistors
20 Million Logic Transistors
5 Million Logic Transistors
Source: IBS, Analysis of the Relationship Between EDA Expenditures and Competitive Positioning of IC Vendors
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200523
System Design Attention ShiftsFrom Hardware to Software
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200524
SoC Design Requires Integration of Disparate Parts
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200525
Verification Is the Largest Part of the SoC Design EffortBreakdown of Design Teams by Main Function
Source: 2002 IC/ASIC Functional Verification Study, Collett International Research, Used with Permission
Verification & Test46%
Other6% Software
14%
Design34%
Verification 47%
Design53%
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200526
IP Re-use Doesn’t Necessarily ReduceVerification Requirements
IP DominantIP Dominant
IP selection, evaluation, integration
Early assessment performance and power
Trade-off hardware vs. FPGA vs. software
Single algorithm, many hardware architectures
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200527
Idealized Design CycleStart
FCS
Software
SystemSystemLevel DesignLevel Design
ImplementationPhase
RTL BoundaryPhysical Verification
HardwareImplementation
HardwareSpecification
HardwarePrototype
CodeFreeze
SoftwareSpecification
IntegrationAnd Test
SoftwareImplementation
Hardware
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200528
Typical Design Cycle
SystemLevel Design
RTL BoundarySoftw
are
HardwareSpecification
HardwarePrototype
CodeFreeze
SoftwareSpecification
SoftwareImplementation
BeginsHardware
TimingTimingClosureClosure
I&TI&T
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200529
System Design Exploration and Optimization Require ESL and C-Based Tools
PlatformBased Design
~1 MHzTransaction
LevelModeling
PerformanceOptimization
~ 100 KHzHardware/Software
Co-Verification
~ 1 HzC-based
Simulation
C-basedSynthesis
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200530
TYPICAL RTL DESIGN FLOW C DESIGN FLOW
Floating PointModel
Fixed PointModel
Micro-architectureDefinition
RTLDesign
RTL Area/TimingOptimization
RTLSynthesis
Place & Route
HardwareASIC/FPGA
HardwareASIC/FPGA
Place & Route
RTLSynthesis
Fixed PointC++ Model
Floating PointModel
Catapult CSynthesisConstraints
Logic Analyzer
++
LogicAnalyzer
ASIC or FPGAVendor
Algorithm Functional Description
Algorithm Functional Description
Replaces manual RTL creation with automationConnects system domain to hardware designSingle source for ASIC or FPGAUp to 20X reduction in RTL creation
Reducing Design Time with C Synthesis
ManualMethods
MATLAB
C/C++
Precision RTLor DC
Syst
em D
esig
ner
Har
dwar
e D
esig
ner
Vend
or
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200531
Raising the Level of Abstraction for Design
Performancedriven HWR
3G ENGINE
BlueTooth Controller
IR &RS232
Compression& Encryption
Engine
CPUCore
DSPCore
RTOSBlueTooth Driver
Comp/Enc DriverIR/RS232 Driver FPGA
FunctionalDifferentiation
SoftwareRTL
IP Blocks & Buses
Gate
Transistor
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200532
Platforms Enable the Rapid System Evolution of SoC Design
Customer demands— Fast turn-around time— Easy access to pre-qualified
building blocks— Web enabled
Design technology— Core platforms— ‘Big’ IP— Emerging SoC bus standards— Embedded software— HW/SW co-verification
Far Peripherals
Near Peripherals
Core
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200533
And Automation of IP Selection & Integration
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200534
A Major Shift in System/SoC DesignIP & Platform Creation
5,000+Designers
100,000+Designers
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200535
Field Programmable Logic Will Continue to Gain Share of Designs …
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
# of D
esig
n St
arts
ASIC COT PLDs >100K
Source: Dataquest, ASIC/SOC: “Rebuilding After the Storm”, 11/19/02
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200536
… And FPGA Design Complexity Will Approach the Complexity of ASICs
High-End FPGA/FPSoC- IP integration- Complex timing- HW/SW design- Complex debug- Prototyping- SDC constraints- C-based design- Physical timing problems- PCB integration issues- Team design
Mainstream FPGA/PLDs
-Simulate/Debug-Synthesize
-Place/Route
Low cost toolsPush button flow
Sophisticated tools ASIC-like flow
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200537
ASIC Methodologies Must Change to Reduce Fixed Cost
Structured or platform ASICs?Embedded FPGA’s in standard products and vice versaRicher design reuse librariesE-Beam direct slice writingChange the ASIC methodology…
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200538
Methods for Achieving the Cost Reduction Will Change
Changes in system design and component packaging & assemblyFixed costs of design, verification, software and toolingPower and performance constraints on cost reductionManufacturing methods
— Test— Design-for-manufacturability
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200539
Increasing Frequency and Leakage Create Power Density Problems
Source: “Circuit, Platform Design and Test Challenges in Technologies Beyond 90nm”, Grundmanm, Galivanch, DATE 2003
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200540
Increasing Frequency and Leakage Create Power Density Problems
Source: “Circuit, Platform Design and Test Challenges in Technologies Beyond 90nm”, Grundmanm, Galivanch, DATE 2003
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200541
Increasing Frequency and Leakage Create Power Density Problems
Source: “Circuit, Platform Design and Test Challenges in Technologies Beyond 90nm”, Grundmanm, Galivanch, DATE 2003
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200542
Increasing Frequency and Leakage Create Power Density Problems
Source: “Circuit, Platform Design and Test Challenges in Technologies Beyond 90nm”, Grundmanm, Galivanch, DATE 2003
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200543
Power-Aware Design Requires Design Changes at All Levels
Architectural level— Clock speeds of computational elements (CPUs, DSPs)— Frequency of buses— Memory access - optimized caches and tightly coupled memories— Static vs. dynamic design
Device/interconnect level— Reduce capacitance of interconnects— Reduce operating voltage— Reduce size of transistors— Reduce hot spots via analysis
Process level— Reduce static current drain
High K dielectricsSelective oxide thicknessBack Bias? Oxide isolation?
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200544
Power Aware Design Starts With Hardware/Software Partitioning Tradeoffs
Synthesize power hungry software functions into hardware— Slowing the CPU clock saves milliwatts— New hardware blocks add microwatts
Equivalent Function in HardwareEmbedded Code
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200545
SoC Verification, Integration, SynthesisVe
rific
atio
nIn
tegr
atio
nSy
nthe
sis
ALGORITHM-C/C++
COMPILATION SYNTHESIS
AAP
OS
HARDWARE DEBUG
PERIPHERAL
SOFTWARE DEBUG
PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200546
Power Optimization Example
Gaussian calc.
FFT
Hamming window
Fixed pt divider
48.0 mW
Watt WatcherPower Est
12.3 mW
11.1 mW
0.4 mW
0.4%
0.3%
4.7%
2.1%
TimeActive
0.19 mW
0.04 mW
0.52 mW
0.01 mW
HW powerEst
Total power consumed 0.76 mW
CPU 0.57 mW 32 MHz
43.89 mWSW only algorithms (0.57 mW x 77MHz) =
Function converted to hardware
18.24 mW
19.00 mWCustom Hardware + CPU =Project Goal 25 mW
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200547
Battery Driven Power Management
llc_mem
fcs_memfcs_comp
wep_memwep_initwep_compicv_mem
pli_mem
icv_comp
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 20 40 60 80
time (ms)
Cu
rre
nt
(mA
)
Ex. T
race
s
Current Profile
Original profile
Ex. T
race
s
Current Profile
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
time (ms)
Cu
rren
t (m
A)
llc_mem
fcs_memfcs_comp
wep_memwep_initwep_compicv_mem
pli_mem
icv_comp
Rated Ct.
OptimizedProfile
Rated Ct.
New “Battery Driven” Power Management Customizes Current Discharge Profile
Traditionally power management has targeted reduction of average power / total energy
For battery powered systems:
— Minimizing average power ≠ maximizing battery life
— Power management needs to shape the power profile
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200548
Methods for Achieving the Cost Reduction Will Change
Changes in system design and component packaging & assemblyFixed costs of design, verification, software and toolingPower and performance constraints on cost reductionManufacturing methods
— Test— Design-for-manufacturability
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200549
Methods for Achieving the Cost Reduction Will Change
Changes in system design and component packaging & assemblyFixed costs of design, verification, software and toolingPower and performance constraints on cost reductionManufacturing methods
— Test— Design-for-manufacturability
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200550
Test Complexity Has Been Offsetting Cost Reduction
Source: IC Knowledge, 2004
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200551
New Failure Modes Require New Failure Models
EE Times Article: Failures plague 130-nanometer IC processes, By Ron Wilson, August 27, 2002
Transition FaultsBridging FaultsOther Models
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200552
At-Speed Testing Will IncreaseStuck-at-test alone is no longer sufficient
— Defects uniquely detected by “at-speed” tests increase 12X - 20X from .18 micron to .13 micron
Source: Nvidia, Fabless Forum March 2003
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200553
Compression of Test Patterns Will Make Increased Test Possible at Reduced Cost
““stuckstuck--atat””
““atat--speedspeed””
compressedtest
EmbeddedTest
Compression
Requires 3X-5X pattern volume10X-100X pattern compression and tester throughput
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200554
Methods for Achieving the Cost Reduction Will Change
Changes in system design and component packaging & assemblyFixed costs of design, verification, software and toolingPower and performance constraints on cost reductionManufacturing methods
— Test— Design-for-manufacturability
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200555
Lithography Costs Are Increasing Faster Than Wafer Throughput
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200556
Resolution Enhancement Technology Will Increase Lithography Equipment Lifetime
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200557
What You Design Is Not What’s Printed on the Photomask
Layout Result on Silicon Wafer
WithoutOPC
WithOPC
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200558
Resolution Enhancement Requires Optical Modeling
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200559
At 250nm RET was for Yield Enhancement
Target No RET
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200560
At 250nm RET was for Yield Enhancement
Target With RET
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200561
At 130 nm RET Began to be About Yield Creation
Target No RET
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200562
At 130 nm RET Began to be About Yield Creation
Target With RET
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200563
At 90nm There is No Yield Without RET
No RETTarget
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200564
At 90nm There is No Yield Without RET
Target – Poly OPC Silicon Simulation - Poly
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200565
At 90nm There is No Yield Without RET
No RETTarget
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200566
At 90nm There is No Yield Without RET
With RETTarget
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200567
Growing Importance of RET
250 nm 180 nm 130 nm 90 nm1
35
Incr
easi
ng N
umbe
r of C
hip
Laye
rs W
ith R
ET
13• OPC
• 248nm Scanner
• OPC• Attenuated PSM• Annular Illumination• 248nm Scanner
• OPC• Attenuated PSM• Annular Illumination• Quadrapole/Quasar Illumination
• 248/193nm Scanner
• OPC• Attenuated PSM• Annular Illumination• Quadrapole/Quasar
Illumination• 248/193nm Scanner
65 nm
28
• OPC• Attenuated PSM• Annular Illumination• Quadrapole/Quasar
Illumination•Double Exposure• 248/193nm Scanner
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200568
Manufacturing Yield is Becoming a Design Problem
IC Generation (µ)Source: PDF Solutions/Solida State Technology
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200569
And Designers Need to Help- Design-for-Manufacturability -
DRC Rules– Check design
compliance with process rules
DFM Guidelines– Define the optimal layout
for highest yield– Must be implemented in
RET-aware environment
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200570
Evaluation of Designs For Manufacturability Requires Statistical Analysis of the Design
Software highlights an area that is a potential problemVisualize the appearance ofcircuit in siliconCalculate metrics based onevaluation of DFM rules
# of transistors involved% of transistors that can be fixed
Make suggestions of possible fixes
Overlay Statistical Color MapsPinpoint specific problems
Via Check Adequate spacing todouble 45% of single via instances.
Display locations
Make global change
Find first instance
Defect density at 85%
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200571
Integration of Physical Verification and Test Will Enhance Debug and Yield
Improvement
Logic view
AA
Layout view
C
B
D
E
Possible bridging sites
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200572
Physical Yield Analysis Will Connect Design With Statistical Physical Layout Analysis
99.97%
99.97%
99.97%
99.97%
99.98%
99.98%
99.98%
99.98%
99.98%
99.99%
99.99%
99.99%
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4Min Space M1
Act
ual Y
ield
CompressedNet Yield
Diagnostics
Defect Type Pareto
poly1/poly1 bridge
metal2/metal2 bridge
metal1/metal2 via open
poly1/p-well bridge
metal1/metal2 via res.
poly1/n-well bridge
open contact
metal1 open
metal2/gnd bridge
metal2 open
Unit # mm mm mm # %
Single Vias
Length M1
Length M2
Min Space
M1
Min Space M1-45
N348342 2 3.72992 1.29073 0.70642 3 99.979%N723000 5 2.41953 2.13749 0.55512 3 99.979%N722774 4 4.54991 1.95610 0.52412 3 99.977%N868686 2 4.81466 1.90007 0.26846 2 99.981%N906825 3 0.82530 1.95039 0.44865 3 99.984%N430501 2 0.24455 2.05877 0.72941 2 99.985%N306671 2 3.05894 2.20033 0.25910 2 99.985%N960836 3 3.19550 2.00096 0.24427 3 99.983%N631146 2 3.50581 1.57913 0.48508 4 99.980%N899470 4 1.33828 2.59918 0.39739 4 99.979%N001955 2 4.36102 1.68437 0.41973 2 99.978%N022249 2 4.39427 1.62443 0.66852 2 99.981%N309851 3 2.48415 2.88285 0.72739 2 99.978%
Actual Yield
Open Mechanisms Bridging Mechs
NetName
Net LevelDesign Feature toYield Correlation
Design Featureand Volume
Test Data Extract
Net FeatureExtraction
StatisticsdBGDSII
Feature TargetedCompressed ATPG
DefectRules
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200573
DFM Design Guidelines Feature AnalysisCombine rule priority and degree of severity with statistical occurrence information by region or cell Identify layout features
— Polygon, edge, edge clustersPresent statistics of occurrence
— Whole Chip— By Area— By Cell— Single feature or multi-feature— Equations Regions of High Occurrence
of Low Yielding Feature
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200574
Grayscale Analysis of DFM Guidelines
MinimumDesign Rule
Optimal DFMDesign Rule
Priority Fixes
Determine “grayscale” of adherence to recommended and guideline rulesPresent statistics
— Whole Chip— By Area— By Cell
Visualization with viewer— By rule priority— Histograms— Color Maps
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200575
Feed Forward Process ModelingProcess Models
Litho Etch
CMP
Overlay
Identify weak post-RET regions
Probability to failure report
Probability of failure ranking
Best
Worst
12% Underdose 8% Underdose 4% Underdose
Silicon Validation
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200576
The Cost per Function Will Continue to Decline Long After Moore’s Law is Obsolete
Vacuum-Tube1941 - 1955
2003 Cost/MIPs
1.000E-021.000E-011.000E+001.000E+011.000E+021.000E+031.000E+041.000E+051.000E+061.000E+071.000E+081.000E+091.000E+101.000E+111.000E+121.000E+13
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Discrete Transistor1955 - 1966
Integrated Circuit1966 - Today
WCR, Moore's Law is Unconstitutional, January 200577