More effective then the Duke of Sutherland in clearing the Highlands? 

10 years of rising fuel prices in rural Scotland

Professor David GrayThe Centre for Transport PolicyThe Robert Gordon University

Rural Journey Making: Current Areas Of Interest

• Relationship between social capital, informal lift giving and community mobility

• Impact of fuel price rises on rural motoring and rural communities

Rural Fieldwork

Car Dependence in Rural Scotland (1998)

• Price of fuel in rural Scotland starting to cause concern

• Research aimed to establish level of car dependence and likely impact of rising pump prices:– Over 1000 questionnaires drawn from 5 study

areas– 100+ travel diaries and interviews– Focus groups in each area

Sutherland

Sutherland Focus Group:Anger Over Fuel Prices

“Isolation should read victimisation”

“The old way of life that we see at the moment would disappear”

Sutherland Focus Group:Anger Over Fuel Prices

“I believe that this is going to be the straw for rural areas that will break the camel’s back. It’s as

simple as that it will decimate rural areas”

Sutherland Focus Group:Anger Over Fuel Prices

“You’d be more effective than the Duke of Sutherland in clearing the Highlands”

Sutherland Focus Group:Anger Over Fuel Prices

“You’d be more effective than the Duke of Sutherland in clearing the Highlands”

…10 years on?

Key Rural Transport Issues In Skye (last week)

• Potholes and the condition of local roads• Shortcomings of local bus network • New liquid gritting agent

Key Rural Transport Issues In Skye (last week)

• Potholes and the condition of local roads• Shortcomings of local bus network • New liquid gritting agent

• NOT rising fuel prices

Key Rural Transport Issues In Skye (last week)

“Fuel prices have fallen off the political radar”(Discussion group participant, Glenelg)

Why Have Fuel Prices Fallen Off The Political Radar?

Why Have Fuel Prices Fallen Off The Political Radar?

• The myth of the ‘heroic’ rural car user• Supermarket location and subsequent impact on

travel behaviour• Rise of internet shopping• Reduction in fuel price differentials between urban

and rural areas• Relative financial burden of fuel prices rises• Anger over fuel prices and cultural identity• Overstated fears of 1998 versus mundane reality of

2008

Why Have Fuel Prices Fallen Off The Political Radar?

• The myth of the ‘heroic’ rural car user• Supermarket location and subsequent impact on

travel behaviour• Rise of internet shopping• Reduction in fuel price differentials between urban

and rural areas• Relative financial burden of fuel prices rises• Anger over fuel prices and cultural identity• Overstated fears of 1998 versus mundane reality of

2008

The Heroic Rural Car User

Household Expenditure On Fuel By Rural Type (2006)

Average monthly expenditure on fuel

Scottish average £91

Large urban areas £78

Accessible small towns £103

Remote small towns £87

Accessible rural areas £116

Remote rural areas £101

Why Have Fuel Prices Fallen Off The Political Radar?

• The myth of the ‘heroic’ rural car user• Supermarket location and subsequent impact

on travel behaviour• Rise of internet shopping• Reduction in fuel price differentials between urban

and rural areas• Relative financial burden of fuel prices rises• Anger over fuel prices and cultural identity• Overstated fears of 1998 versus mundane reality of

2008

Supermarket Location And Subsequent Impact On Travel

Behaviour

• The (re)emergence of the mid-size supermarket in small towns

The Mid-Size Supermarket (a poor example!)

Why Have Fuel Prices Fallen Off The Political Radar?

• The myth of the ‘heroic’ rural car user• Supermarket location and subsequent impact on

travel behaviour• Rise of internet shopping• Reduction in fuel price differentials between urban

and rural areas• Relative financial burden of fuel prices rises• Anger over fuel prices and cultural identity• Overstated fears of 1998 versus mundane reality of

2008

Rise Of Internet Shopping

• Internet shopping was virtually unheard of in 1998

• Why drive to Inverness when you can shop online?

Why Have Fuel Prices Fallen Off The Political Radar?

• The myth of the ‘heroic’ rural car user• Supermarket location and subsequent impact on

travel behaviour• Rise of internet shopping• Reduction in fuel price differentials between

urban and rural areas• Relative financial burden of fuel prices rises• Anger over fuel prices and cultural identity• Overstated fears of 1998 versus mundane reality of

2008

Why Have Fuel Prices Fallen Off The Political Radar?

• The myth of the ‘heroic’ rural car user• Supermarket location and subsequent impact on

travel behaviour• Rise of internet shopping• Reduction in fuel price differentials between urban

and rural areas• Relative financial burden of fuel prices rises• Anger over fuel prices and cultural identity• Overstated fears of 1998 versus mundane reality of

2008

Average House Price By Rural Type (2007)

Average house price

Mortgage repayment (63%)

Variance from Scottish average

Scottish average £159,981 £735 -

Remote rural £156,679 £725 - £10

Accessible rural £164,695 £755 + £20

Aberdeen City £184,942 £856 + £121

Edinburgh City £226,434 £1048 + £313

Additional Monthly Burden For Average Household In Remote Rural Area

Cost Additional monthly expenditure

10p/litre rise in fuel prices £11

Five 0.25% rises in interest rates

£75-100

Inflationary Pressures On Rural Standard Of Living

• Mortgage interest rate rises• Energy and heating prices (especially heating oil)• Price of food• Fuel prices

Why Have Fuel Prices Fallen Off The Political Radar?

• The myth of the ‘heroic’ rural car user• Supermarket location and subsequent impact on

travel behaviour• Rise of internet shopping• Reduction in fuel price differentials between urban

and rural areas• Relative financial burden of fuel prices rises• Anger over fuel prices and cultural identity• Overstated fears of 1998 versus mundane reality of

2008

Sutherland Focus Group:Anger Over Fuel Prices

“Isolation should read victimisation”

“You’d be more effective than the Duke of Sutherland in clearing the Highlands”

Sutherland Focus Group:Anger Over Fuel Prices

“We can delude ourselves into thinking that we can influence the policy mandarins in London, who are going to dictate this policy…whatever we say, it’s not going to make the slightest bit of difference with these people”

Anger over fuel prices

Anger over fuel prices can be partly explained by:

• The historical relationship between Scotland’s Highland periphery and its Lowland core; and

• The need to maintain a sense of place, identity and community in an ever-changing world

Why Have Fuel Prices Fallen Off The Political Radar?

• The myth of the ‘heroic’ rural car user• Supermarket location and subsequent impact on

travel behaviour• Rise of internet shopping• Reduction in fuel price differentials between urban

and rural areas• Relative financial burden of fuel prices rises• Anger over fuel prices and cultural identity• Overstated fears of 1998 versus mundane

reality of 2008

More Effective Than The Duke Of Sutherland In Clearing The Highlands?

• In 1998, rising fuel prices were the key concern in remote rural communities

• In 2008, rising fuel prices are still an issue but not the issue

Outstanding Questions

• Is Skye and Lochalsh perspective on fuel prices typical?

• Or is anger over fuel prices still evident, but very localised (geography at work!)?

• How much more will fuel prices rise before it reappears on the political radar?