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More Is DifferentSorin Solomon
HUJ and ISI
Real world is controlled …– by the exceptional, not the mean; – by the catastrophe, not the steady drip; – by the very rich, not the ‘middle class’.
we need to free ourselves from ‘average’ thinking.
Philip Anderson
Executive Abstract:
The Multi-Agent Complex Systems approach identifies-singular local elements of change / growth (even at early stages where, as whole, the system seems in regress)
-spatio-temporal patterns of growth relevant resources - socio-economic / human interactive causal mechanisms leading to growth (e.g. education / cultural level / tradition).
Concrete interdisciplinary example: post-liberalization Poland- identifies emergence of resilient, sustainable, developing patterns likely to support sustainable global growth
- prediction of (space-time) singular fluctuation patterns that may lead to increased social inequality and economic instability (but also to novelty emergence)
The classical paradigms fail in predicting emergence of novelty / development in bio/ cogni / socio/ econo systems
- Extension of study to other regions / disciplines
“Almost all the social phenomena…
obey the logistic growth” Elliot W Montroll
I would urge… logistic equation early in the education
… in the everyday world of politics and economics Lord Robert May
- Nonlinear Terms (Competion/Saturation) Growth ~ Size“continuum” Logistic Solution: uniform in space and time:
< 0
Size
TIME
In reality, in Growth ~ Size, is the result of multi-agent spatio-temporal distributed discrete contributions
This leads to a complex solution presenting fractal / intermittentcollective macro-objects with self-organized adaptive behavior
Theorem: resilience and sustainability
even for <><0
Logistic
Differential Equation < 0
Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction
TIME
Size
ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 0
Andrzej Nowak lab
Poland Post-Liberalization
Social-Economic-Political Development predictions:
Multi-Agents vs Differential Equations
Seemingly similar regions before liberalization
Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction
Logistic
Differential Equation < 0
1989 1990 19921991
Nowak
Emerges islandof growth
Large region of decay
First year: Global Decay;
- MACS predicts Future Growth- DE predicts continuous decay (based on the same Logistsic parameters !)
Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction
Logistic
Differential Equation < 0
1989 1990 19921991
ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 1
Andrzej Nowak lab
Most regions are devastated
But MACS sees already nuclei of growth
Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction
Logistic
Differential Equation < 0
1989 1990 19921991
ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 2
Andrzej Nowak lab
Yr2:Globally, the situation seems getting worse and worse
MACS wins over DE
(for the same Logistic parameters)
Development spreads from the nuclei to the rest of the country
Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction
Logistic
Differential Equation < 0
1989 1990 19921991
ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 3
Andrzej Nowak lab
What were the A’s ?
ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 12
Andrzej Nowak lab
EDUCATION (‘88) !!!!
Nowak
the A’s !
Andrzej Nowak lab
EDUCATION (‘88)(note complete correspondence with growth areas AFTER but NOT BEFORE liberalization !)
Nowak
Economic Growth is in turn “A’s” for Political Transformation
Voting for Reformist Parties
Nowak
Fractal Wealth Distribution: Scaling; Power laws
Dell
Buffet
20ALLEN
GATES
WALMART
No one however, has yet exhibited a stable social order, ancient or modern, which has not followed the Pareto pattern… Davis; Cowles Commission for Research in Economics
Pareto’s curve … great generalizations
of human knowledge. Snyder 1939
stochastic Logistic systems=> Pareto Laws
Theorem : Generically
The 100 year old Pareto puzzle is solved by combining
the 100 year old logistic Lotka-Volterra equation with the 100 year old Boltzmann Statistical Mechanics
Wide Interdisciplinary Experimental ConfirmationNr of Species vs individuals size Nr of Species vs number of specimensNr of Species vs their life time Nr of Languages vs number of speakersNr of countries vs population / size Nr of towns vs. populationNr of product types vs. number of units soldNr of treatments vs number of patients treatedNr of patients vs cost of treatmentNr of moon craters vs their size Nr of earthquakes vs their strenthNr of meteorites vs their size Nr of voids in universe vs their sizeNr of galaxies vs their size Nr of rives vs the size of their basin
Globalization (efficient but unstable fluctuations)
Local Consumption Economy (inefficient but very stable (if population is stable))
Theorem: Logistic Multi-Agent Systems=>Intermittent Fluctuations
Distribution of individual wealth ~
(by MACS Prediction)
Distribution of global financial fluctuations
Social equity is good for the financial stability!
Levy
fractal space distributionPrediction of campaign success (15/17) Goldenberg
Air-view of a sub-urban neighborhood;
crosses on the roofs indicate air-conditioner purchase
Desertification/ Reclaim space-time localized patterns
Mediterranean; uniform 500mm
Semi-arid; patchy
Desert;uniform200mm
Lavee+Sarah
Piemonte
Belarus
Piemonte
Romania
Future and on-going studies
Conclusions• The connections between the main
ubiquitous complexity features Pareto-Zipf scaling laws / Levy-stable fat-tail fluctuations,
Fractal-Intermittent singular spatio-temporal Growth patterns, Logistic Malthus-Verhulst-Lotka-Volterra-Eigen-Schuster system Percolation, phase transitions, Emergence of adaptive objects
can be understood and expressed within a comprehensive coherent interdisciplinary research framework.
• Its applicability in monitoring and inducing novelty emergence, social change, stable economic growth and sustainable development has been demonstrated.