More of the same,but faster?

Or a chance to create a platform for real innovation?

Simon de Haastsimon@ideafarm.co.za / 083 326 3496

3GAfrican Telecoms 2005Rosebank Park Hyatt 2-4 March

The things we fear most in

organizations

-- fluctuations, disturbances, and

imbalances --

are the primary sources of

creativity.

~ Margaret J. Wheatley ~

Disruptive Change

Deja moo?

Spectrumauction fallout...

My goal today

Offer new thinking frameworks &

tools

Help you re-perceive the opportunities

within and around the mobile ecosystem

The fallacy ofsafetyin numbers,or in more savage terms,

the status quo

Creating your own future?

Signature theme

The best way to

predict the future

is to invent it.Alan Kay

‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface

Rear view innovation

Marshall McLuhan:

The “medium is the message” & “the Global Village” guy

Smart fellow. Predicted the effects of having information at our beck and call, instantly

through cable TV & the Internet - in the1960s.

Rear view innovation“When faced with a totally new situation

we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past.

We look at the present through a rear view mirror.

We march backwards into the future.”

- Marshall McLuhan

Embedded Worldview

Mobile Telephone services

Linear shift to new generation networks

Voice-device centric

A blank slate?

How differently would things look?

Long Tail? Time-shifting?Innovation possibilities?

This innovation thing...

• “Innovation begins with an eye” -

IDEO

• Hole in a wall, not a drill

• Seeing stuff differently

• Insight

Creating your future IIWrite the word

R E A C T I V Eon a piece of paper.

Creating your future IIWrite the word

R E A C T I V Eon a piece of paper.

Now move the “C” to the front of the word.

R E A C T I V E

C R E A T I V E

So how do you see things?

Seeing Differently

Other worlds- DNA, RNA -> Distribution model...

Naïve experts &

Dumb questionsVu jà dé

- where to put the armour plating?

Innovation LagPeter Senge - The Fifth DisciplineEnsemble of component technologies: 30-

40yrsDC-3:• variable pitch propeller • retractable landing gear, • monocque body construction • radial air-cooled engine• wing flaps+ later, radar & jet engines.

vs Boeing 247?

Making connections“I’m not sure

who discovered water,but I’m pretty sure

it wasn’t a fish.”

The Long TailChris Anderson - Wired.com- Amazon, Netflix biz models

The Long Tail

The Long Tail

The Long Tail“Touching the Void” - mediocre seller...1o years later, “Into Thin Air”Big successThen Void sales increased

- now 2:1Bye bye 80:20 rule in bit-based

business

Long Tail with 3GiPod Shuffle + CellphoneFlat rate music downloadDRM expires content unless boughtChoice widens, curiosity incentiveWag the Long Tail“Lease” content to other devices

-keep renewing periodically

Time-ShiftingVCRsMy time, not their time!TiVO....RSS...BitTorrent...Google

VideoMe-TVNot anonymous on network

We’re just warming up!Operators:

Advanced Services = Key DifferentiatorIncrease ARPU, more SIM provisioning

Users: 70%Simple phone please!!Simple phone please!!

Thinking outside the handset

Mobile phone service components- Handset- SIM card- Wireless network- Content and services provision- Billing system- Customer relationship.

Thinking outside the handset

Creatively re-combine:- Handset- SIM card- Wireless network- Content and services provision- Billing system- Customer relationship.

+ Small box of electronics

3G Appliance

Something to consume Long Tail and Time Shifted services with

Operator sells another SIM card

3G Appliance

Just some scenariosCreating possibilities!What business am I really in?

The ‘Un-dialed’Borrow from the banks...unbanked.Mzansi: No frills bank account

Do the same for a no-frills telecoms service?

Key Point“When faced with a totally new situation

we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past.

We look at the present through a rear view mirror.

We march backwards into the future.”

- Marshall McLuhan

Simon de Haastsimon@ideafarm.co.za / 083 326 3496

A copy of the talk will be available on www.ideafarm.co.za/blog

African Telecoms 2005Rosebank Park Hyatt 2-4 March

Thank you