27
Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference, London 26 March 2014 Jan Erik Back, CFO

Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference, London 26 March 2014 Jan Erik Back, CFO

Page 2: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Resilience and franchise growth key attributes post-Lehman

Enhanced profitability and customer satisfaction key future deliveries

2

Page 3: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

The past

3

Page 4: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Our way of doing business

Full-service customers

Holistic coverage

Investments in core services

Large Corporate

2,200 customers

Financial Institutions

700 customers

Corporate

400k customers

Private

4m customers

Since 1856 focus on…

4

Page 5: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Leverage ratio (Basel 3)

CET 1 ratio (Basel 3)

Strong asset quality and balance sheet

CT 1 (Basel 2.5)

Liquidity resources

Customer deposits

2009 2012 2013

28.6bn 13.8bn 9.5bn

65% 66% 72%

0.92% 0.08% 0.09%

750bn 862bn 849bn

>10% ~25% ~25%

N.A. 113% 129%

11.7% 15.1% 17.8%

N.A. 13.1% 15.0%

4.2%

Non-performing loans

Liquidity coverage ratio

NPL coverage ratio

Asse

t qua

lity

Fund

ing

and

liqui

dity

C

apita

l (SEK)

Net credit loss level

5

Page 6: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Substantially reduced non-performing loans SEK bn

NOTE: Sale of the German retail operations reduced German NPLs by SEK 817m in Mar ‘11

NPLs / lending:

NPL coverage ratio:

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dec

'07

Dec

'08

Dec

'09

Dec

'10

Dec

'11

Dec

'12

Mar

'13

Jun

'13

Sep

'13

Dec

'13

Dec

'07

Dec

'08

Dec

'09

Dec

'10

Dec

'11

Dec

'12

Mar

'13

Jun

'13

Sep

'13

Dec

'13

Dec

'07

Dec

'08

Dec

'09

Dec

'10

Dec

'11

Dec

'12

Mar

'13

Jun

'13

Sep

'13

Dec

'13

Dec

'07

Dec

'08

Dec

'09

Dec

'10

Dec

'11

Dec

'12

Mar

'13

Jun

'13

Sep

'13

Dec

'13

SEB Group Nordics Germany Baltics

Portfolio assessed - past due >60 days

Individually assessed - impaired loans with specific reserves

0.7%72.0%

0.2%75.8%

0.8%86.9%

5.0%66.6%

-32%

-7%-4%

-44%

6

Page 7: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

A liquid balance sheet based on a solid funding base

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13

1. Liquid assets = trading assets excluding derivatives + central bank holdings + bond portfolios in Treasury + bank lending. 2. Short-term funding = central bank funding + CP/CD + bank funding 3. Core Gap = Core Gap Ratio is an SEB defined internal measure similar to the regulatory-defined NSFR but based on internal behavioural modelling. It measures the amount of more than 1 year funding in relation to more than 1 year assets.

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13

Structural liquidity – Core gap ratio: stable funding to long-term assets3 has been stable

Short-term liquidity – Liquid assets1 to short-term funding2 has structurally improved

7

Page 8: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Basel 2.5 Core Tier 1 ratio (per cent)

Strong capital situation

17.8 Strong capital formation

Basel III leverage ratio 4.2%

Maintain buffer to minimum regulatory levels

- In Sweden CET 12% in 2015 (+ countercyclical buffer+ pillar 2+…?)

Significantly more capital attributed to divisions to support capital rationalisation and pricing dynamics

8.6

Basel III fully implemented 13.1 15.0

8

Page 9: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Profit before losses, FY Operating profit, FY

Profit generation throughout the financial and sovereign debt “crises”

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Operating income Operating expenses Net credit losses

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201320062007200820092010201120122013

2)

1)

3)

1) of which SEK 1.3bn buy back of sub debt 2) of which SEK 3.0bn goodwill write-offs 3) of which SEK 0.8bn restructuring costs in our German subsidiary, SEB AG 4) write-down of IT infrastructure SEK 0.8bn 5) of which SEK 1.0bn in write-backs of credit loss provisions

4)

5)

36.7 37.7 38.8

23.8 23.5 23.7

15.2 15.0 14.2

11.4 13.0

14.2

22.3

41.6

19.3 18.1

Income, expenses and net credit losses (SEK bn)

Highest operating profit to date (SEK bn)

9

Page 10: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

5.8 5.9 5.7 5.6

Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013

Increased operating leverage Average quarterly income (SEK bn)

9.2 9.4 9.8 10.4

Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013

Average quarterly expenses (SEK bn)

Notes: Excluding one-offs (restructuring in 2010, and bond buy-back and IT impairment in 2012) Estimated IAS 19 costs in 2010

Average quarterly pre-provision profit (SEK bn)

3.4 3.5 4.1

4.8

Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013

10

Page 11: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Ope

ratin

g ex

pens

es

(SE

K b

n)

<22.5bn

23.8 23.5 22.9 22.3

2010 2011 2012 2013

Improved cost efficiency

Structural

Activ

ities

Mindset

• Common support functions • Pooled procurement • Agile IT development • Off-shoring

• Decentralisation • Cost caps

11

Page 12: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Building-up the client franchise… Fr

anch

ise

Share-of-wallet in customer segments Number of clients

Large corporates

2009 2013

2,200 +400

Sweden

Baltics

SME/MidCorp

2009 2013

140,000 +41,000

2009 2013

94,000 +21,000

Sweden

Baltics

Private

2009 2013

466,000 +60,000

2009 2013

844,000 +179,000

12

Page 13: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

...and creating credit portfolio growth SEK bn

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Dec '09 Jun '10 Dec '10 Jun '11 Dec '11 Jun '12 Dec '12 Jun '13 Dec '13

+185bn, CAGR 7%

Households

Corporates

+125bn, CAGR 7%

13

Page 14: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Increased focus on savings and asset gathering Full range of savings products through bancassurance model

050

100150200250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Unit-linked AuM (SEK bn)

+15% CAGR

Private Banking AuM (SEK bn)

0

200

400

600

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

+25% CAGR

Household deposits (SEK bn)

+8% CAGR

0

50

100

150

200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

14

Page 15: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Sum-up: profit growth enabling dividend growth

Dividend policy: 40% or above of Net profit (EPS)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2010 2011 2012 2013

Total dividend Net profit

DPS, SEK 1.50 1.75 2.75 4.00 Pay-out ratio 49% 35% 52% 59%

SEK m

15

Page 16: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

The future

16

Page 17: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Our strategic direction remains

The leading Nordic bank for corporates & institutions

Top universal bank in Sweden and the Baltics

17

Page 18: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Execution is key

Corporate expansion Nordics & Germany

SME expansion Sweden

Cost control (flexibility)

Balance sheet resilience

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Improve customer loyalty

Increase share-of-wallet

Profitable growth

Continued resilience and flexibility

Business Plan 2010-2012

Business Plan 2013-2015

Business Plan 2014-2016

18

Page 19: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

SME NPS

Baltics

+27 +30

2012 2013

Sweden

+19 +24

2012 2013

Private NPS

Sweden

Baltics

+34 +34

2012 2013

+19 +28

2012 2013

Improving customer satisfaction…and loyalty C

usto

mer

s Customer loyalty/satisfaction Targeted measures

Financial Institutions

Willingness to recommend

#1

Willingness to recommend

#1

Large corporates

19

Private SKI SME SKI

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

2007 2009 2011 2013

SEB SHBNordea Swedbank

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

2007 2009 2011 2013

SEB SHBNordea Swedbank

Page 20: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

413

305

209

# of new clients

84

Increase share of wallet Large Corporates and Financial Institutions New client income contribution (%)

2%

5%

7%

10%

171

49

93

100

5

4

3

2

1

0 2010 2011 2012 2013

”Vintage”2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

6

7

8

9

Average MB client

Number of products per customer

20

Page 21: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Actions to raise divisional performance

Merchant Banking

Retail Banking

Asset Gathering

Baltic

Income growth by 2015

~15%

~20%

~5%

~15%

Second phase in the Nordic and German expansion

Increase cross-selling on existing customer base

Further strengthen corporate profile

Leverage multi-channel approach

Reduce complexity in fund offering and grow PB

Improve Life insurance online solutions

Focus on customer profitability

Improve advisory services to corporates

21

Page 22: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Income growth in line with communicated target

Growth target 2012-15

3 years

Each year

Actual growth 2013

Merchant Banking ~15% ~5% vs. +6%

Retail Banking ~20% ~6% vs. +10%

Life & Wealth ~5% ~1.5% vs. +2%

Baltic ~15% ~5% vs. +3%

Group ~15% ~5% vs. +7%

Operating profit

(SEK bn)

Large Corps &

Institutions

Asset

Gathering

Baltic

Private &

Corporates

Target ROE>peers = approx. 13%

Capital generation assuming dividend payout >40%

”2015”

Approx. 20

ROE approx. 13%

I L L U S T R A T I V E

15.4

2012

ROE 11%

From Q4 2012:

22

Page 23: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Business conditions

Deloitte/SEB Swedish CFO Survey

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

23

Page 24: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Financial targets

Profitability Return on Equity Competitive with peers

- long-term aspiration of 15% Capital Common Equity Tier 1

ratio Total capital ratio

13% 16%

TBD, always compliant with

regulation

Dividend Pay-out ratio 40% or above of EPS

Ratings Funding access and

credibility as counterpart

Maintain credit ratings in support of competitive funding access and costs and as a viable counterpart in financial markets

Liquidity

Liquidity Coverage Ratio > 100% according to Swedish requirements

Efficiency Nominal cost cap < SEK 22.5bn 2013 and 2014 …and 2015

2013 2014

24

Page 25: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Putting extra focus on…

Grow SME business

Continued expansion in Nordics and Germany

Increase private customer satisfaction

Growth in debt capital markets

Capture Savings opportunity

25

Page 26: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Sum-up

26

Page 27: Morgan Stanley European Financials Jan Erik Back, CFO ... · 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. Profit before losses, FY. Operating profit, FY. Profit generation throughout

Keeping SEB’s uniqueness against competitors

27

Competitive and sustainable returns

Enhance customer loyalty and brand perception

Increase share-of-wallet

Cost, capital & funding efficiency +