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Wednesday, September 26, 2018 | 1
Technical Analysis
Cyril BAUDRILLART, CFTe [email protected] +33.1.40.74.19.32
Morning Trading Comments
SUMMARY OF TRADING VIEWS
Stockmarket indices remain robust in the US and Europe ahead of tonight’s FOMC meeting. The technical outlook is also improving in Asia with Nikkei 225 back near January’s highs and Chinese indices bouncing back. On the opposite, government bond markets are feeling the heat whilst Oil prices are on fire. Even German 10-year bond yields broke above an important resistance at 0.50% yesterday with US peers close to year highs and holding above 3%. Fed comments will be closely monitored by markets tonight and should give the tune.
CROSS ASSET EVENTS
Oil is on fire
As highlighted yesterday morning, Brent prices indeed broke above a key resistance at 80 USD, a rather bullish technical event. This breakout also triggered a triple-top buy on Point & Figure charts, a signal I will discuss in tomorrow’s Weekly Global Roadmap report. Overall this upside breakout shows that Oi prices remain incredibly strong and likely to keep outperforming most commodities. Natural Gas futures also made a nice breakout on Monday. Unsurprisingly, these events are triggering renewed interest for the Oil & Gas sector with numerous stocks breaking out (see charts of Aker BP and ENI on page 4).
Wednesday, September 26, 2018 | 2
DETAILED TRADING OUTLOOK ON MAIN INDICES
S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURE (ESZ8)
RESISTANCES 2936 / 2940 / 2947 SUPPORTS 2920 / 2905-2900 / 2883
Comments
Still holding above 2920 support zone.
PREFERRED CASE for next days
The 2920 area remains an important support zone ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. A breakdown below these levels is still needed to deteriorate the index’s technical outlook.
EURO STOXX 50 FUTURE (VGZ8)
RESISTANCES 3420 / 3444 / 3454
SUPPORTS 3380 / 3355-3350 / 3318
Comments
Taking a breather after strong revival.
PREFERRED CASE for next days
The index traded sideways yesterday, in line with expectations, and will probably continue to do so today before the Fed. The 3380 area remains firs important support for the day with 3420 resistance.
Wednesday, September 26, 2018 | 3
DAX 30 FUTURE (GXZ8)
RESISTANCES 12440 / 12500 / 12565 SUPPORTS 12300 / 12200 / 12075
Comments
Formation of a range between 12300 and 12400.
PREFERRED CASE for next days
The index should continue to trade sideways today. Keep watching the 12300 area as an important support zone. A break below this level is still needed to deteriorate the ST outlook which remains strong at this stage.
DAILY SCREENING OF EUROPEAN EQUITIES (STOXX 600)
TREND FOLLOWING IDEAS
Upside breakouts Next, Aker BP, Eni
Downside breakouts -
CONTRARIAN TRADING IDEAS
TRADING BUY
Near 200-day MAs Endesa
Perfected TD setup 9 Buy Deutsche Wohnen
Oversold -
TRADING SELL
Perfected TD setup 9 Sell Anglo American, BillerudKorsnas, Bankinter, BHP Billiton, Epiroc, G4S, Metso
Overbought Carnival
See all charts in next pages…
Wednesday, September 26, 2018 | 4
TREND FOLLOWING IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX
Upside breakouts
NXT LN Equity : Next PLC AKERBP NO Equity : Aker BP ASA
ENI IM Equity : Eni SpA
Wednesday, September 26, 2018 | 5
CONTRARIAN TRADING BUY IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX
Daily Perfected Setup 9 Buy signals
DWNI GY Equity : Deutsche Wohnen SE
Stocks back on 200-day MA
ELE SQ Equity : Endesa SA
Wednesday, September 26, 2018 | 6
CONTRARIAN TRADING SELL IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX Daily Perfected Setup 9 Sell
AAL LN Equity : Anglo American PLC BILL SS Equity : BillerudKorsnas AB
BKT SQ Equity : Bankinter SA BLT LN Equity : BHP Billiton PLC
Wednesday, September 26, 2018 | 7
Wednesday, September 26, 2018 | 8
Daily Perfected Setup 9 Sell
EPIA SS Equity : Epiroc AB GFS LN Equity : G4S PLC
METSO FH Equity : Metso OYJ
Wednesday, September 26, 2018 | 9
Stocks overbought on a daily basis
CCL LN Equity : Carnival PLC
Wednesday, September 26, 2018 | 10
Technical Analysis Equity Sales
Cyril BAUDRILLART [email protected] +33.1.40.74.19.32
Methodology
All technical indicators used in this publication are based on historical prices broadcasted by Bloomberg. Several types of indicators are used in this report such as
Bollinger Bands, Oscillators (RSI, MACD), Point & Figure charts, Ichimoku, Keltner Bands and other technical analysis tools. More details on how to interpret and use
these tools are available upon request. Market timing indicators developed by Tom DeMark are also used in this report. The DeMark Indicators are a registered
trademark of DeMark Analytics, LLC. Please note that all the content shown are my personal views and based on my own interpretation of the DeMark Indicators
using the DeMark Service for Bloomberg. Please visit www.demark.com for more information.
Disclaimer
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