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October 5, 2015
“Most car segments continue at a more accelerated depreciation rate than truck products. This will most likely continue throughout the rest of the year.”
Anil Goyal, Vice President of Automotive Valuation and Analytics
Model Years: 2007-2013, Volume Weighted Wholesale Average Values, Weekly Change from 9/25/15 to 10/1/15
Car and Trucks Experiencing Softening in Fall Market
Volume-weighted, overall car values decreased by 0.60% last week. This is the largest depreciation
rate seen since the 3rd week of June.
The Compact Car Segment saw large depreciation this past week with a decrease of 1.27%.
Volume-weighted, overall truck values decreased by 0.35% last week. This is higher than last week’s
depreciation, but lower than two weeks ago.
Compact Pickup and Full-Size CUV segments saw the largest dollar adjustments this past week with
-$128 and -$135, respectively.
-$99-1.27%
-$58-0.92%
-$75-0.87%
-$65-0.72%
-$28-0.14%
-$6-0.04%
-$83-0.22%
-$59-0.20%
-$106-0.67%
-$36-0.34%
-$67CARS
-0.60%
-1.5%
-1.3%
-1.1%
-0.9%
-0.7%
-0.5%
-0.3%
-0.1%
+0.1%
WEE
KLY
CH
AN
GE
-$71-0.59%
-$128-0.87%
-$95-0.48%
-$135-0.84%
-$7-0.04%
-$112-0.58%
-$6-0.04%
-$10-0.07%
-$73-0.26% -$54
-0.35%
+$8+0.07%
-$71-0.42%
-$44-0.82%
-$35-0.30%
-$56TRUCKS-0.35%
-1.1%
-0.9%
-0.7%
-0.5%
-0.3%
-0.1%
+0.1%
WEE
KLY
CH
AN
GE
2
October 5, 2015
Sentiment from the Auction Lanes
Our editors and personnel attend about 60 auctions every week across the country to provide key insights:
“Not a lot of dealers buying here today with above normal amount of no-
sales.” Doug from TN
“Dealers are looking for units with low mileage, clean history and in clean
condition.” Gerry from FL
“Good sale with normal amount of selection, but vehicle prices have come
down a little on most segments.” Jim from WA
“No action on convertibles this week, but still a good sale in general.” Mark from CA
“A fall market adjustment seems to be taking place, but market is still good.” Bob from WA
“Lots of no-sales today. Sales were slightly down from last week.” David from TX
Vehicle Highlight 2016 Buick Cascada will be available Spring 2016 with a base MSRP of $33,065. The convertible will come in 2 trims: Base and Premium. It will have a 1.6L 200-HP turbocharged engine with a sport lowered chassis, StabiliTrak technology, and 20 inch wheels. Close competitors include Audi A3, Volkswagen Eos, and BMW 2-Series.
This week’s report includes our Monthly Edition Supplement on Specialty Markets.
Industry Events Black Book personnel will be attending several upcoming events. Among them:
October 10 – 11, 2015 Harvey’s Lake Tahoe
Association of Consumer Vehicle Lessors
October 15-18, 2015 Orlando, FL
Hope to see you there!
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
U.S. Average Fuel Prices
Gasoline Diesel Source: EIA
Continued Declines
Gasoline price decreased last week by $0.05 to $2.322, lowest since February.
Diesel price decreased last week by $0.017 to $2.476, lowest seen this year.
3
October 5, 2015
Pre-War American Classics Dominate Labor Day Sales “The collectible market continues to be strong. Auctions featuring all types of
vehicles, from pre-war American Classics to European Exotics, were well attended
this past month in places as diverse as the Midwest and Great Britain. As true
vintage exotics have become too expensive for most collectors, many are turning their attention to less
exclusive European makes, such as Porsche, Jaguar, and Alfa-Romeo. Many of their more desirable
models, such as early 911 turbos, E-Types, and Giulias, have doubled or even tripled in value.”
Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets
Auctions America’s annual Labor Day sale in Auburn, Indiana was attended by over 85,000 automotive enthusiasts. Total sales came in at a healthy $20,000,000, with 870 cars changing hands, a sell through rate of 73%. Just down the road, Worldwide sold 43 cars for a total of $4,800,000.
RM Sotheby’s London sale was success, with total sales breaking through the $25,000,000 mark. Fifty five of the seventy five vehicles were declared sold, and several others were just shy of their reserve.
Recent Notable Sales Included: 1929 Dusenberg Model J Conv $1,400,000 (AA)
1972 Ferrari 365 GTC/4 $315,000 (AA)
1953 Oldsmobile Fiesta Convertible $209,000 (AA)
1979 Porsche 930 Turbo $159,000 (AA)
1965 Shelby Cobra Dragonsnake $1,300,000 (WW)
1970 Buick GS455 Stage 1 Conv $143,000 (WW)
1933 Lincoln KB Convertible $324,000 (WW)
1964 Ferrari 250 GT/L Lusso $1,985,000 (RMS)
1965 Aston Martin DB5 Vantage $1,262,000 (RMS)
1995 Bugatti EB110 Super Sport $1,000,000 (RMS)
Photo courtesy of Auctions America
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
Jan/Feb2014
Mar/Apr2014
May/June2014
July/Aug2014
Sept/Oct2014
Nov/Dec2014
Jan/Feb2015
Mar/Apr2015
May/June2015
July/Aug2015
Sep/Oct2015
European Sports Car Values
SPECIALTY MARKETS:
COLLECTIBLE CARS
4
October 5, 2015
RV Market Once Again Showing Mixed Patterns “The only constant in the RV market of late has been its inconsistency. That may
sound counterintuitive, but the values of motorized and towable units have not
moved in the same direction since April. Once again reversing the prior month’s pattern, Motor Homes
took a fairly significant hit, dropping 7.1%, while towables actually went up 1.8%. By this time of year, I
would expect them to both start declining as we head into colder weather. Auction volume was up a
touch, as remarketers attempt to dispose of their inventory instead of storing units until Spring.” Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets
For Motor Homes (including Class A, B, and C)
Average selling price was $37,363, down $2,874 (7.1%) from previous month
One year ago, the average selling price was $37,995
Auction volume was up 8% from previous month
For Towables (including Travel Trailers, Fifth Wheels, and Camping Trailers)
Average selling price was $11,046, up $202 (1.8%) from previous month
One year ago, the average selling price was $10,168
Auction volume was up 10% from previous month
30000
32000
34000
36000
38000
40000
42000
44000
46000
Jan
-12
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay Jun
Jul
Au
gSe
pO
ctN
ov
De
cJa
n-1
3Fe
bM
arA
pr
May Jun
Jul
Au
gSe
pO
ctN
ov
De
cJa
n-1
4Fe
bM
arA
pr
May Jun
Jul
Au
gSe
pt
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
-15
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ayJu
ne
July
Au
g
Motor Home Value Trends
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
Jan
-12
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay Jun
Jul
Au
gSe
pO
ctN
ov
De
cJa
n-1
3Fe
bM
arA
pr
May Jun
Jul
Au
gSe
pO
ctN
ov
De
cJa
n-1
4Fe
bM
arA
pr
May Jun
Jul
Au
gSe
pt
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
-15
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ayJu
ne
July
Au
g
Travel Trailer and Fifth Wheel Value Trends
SPECIALTY MARKETS:
RECREATIONAL VEHICLES
5
October 5, 2015
Powersports Market Begins Late Summer Decline “ATVs and utility vehicles see unusual declines in value this month, while the
on road bike segments continue to depreciate normally as we enter Fall and
encounter cooler weather.”
Scott Yarbrough, Motorcycle & Powersports Editor
ATVs are down 3.1% and utility vehicles are down 3.6%, which is very unusual as this is both the
prime selling season and the heaviest use season for these vehicles.
Personal Watercraft and Jet Boats continue to drop in value this month, declining 2.3% each, or
$133 for watercraft and $449 for Jet Boats.
The snowmobile segment is rising slowly, up another $23, or 0.6% on average, with larger gains
likely in the coming months.
The on road bike segments: street, scooter, cruiser, and dual sport (on/off road) are all down by a
collective average of 3.2%.
-3.10%
-3.40%
-2.30%
-1.90%
-2.70%
-3.50%
0.60%
-3.10%
-3.60%
-2.30%
-4.00%
-3.50%
-3.00%
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
Motorcycle & Powersports Percent Change September to October 2015
SPECIALTY MARKETS:
POWERSPORTS
6
October 5, 2015
Truck Value Depreciation Stable
“Heavy Duty Truck depreciation increases, while Heavy Duty
Construction/Vocational units continue to depreciate the least.”
Charles Cathey, Editor – Heavy Duty Truck Data
All Heavy Duty segments except for the late model Construction/ Vocational units depreciated more in September
than they did in August. We expect this downward trend to continue through the end of the year as more and more
used units enter the market. Below, we have listed a snapshot of these value changes.
2013-2014 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $480 (0.6%) in September compared to the average decline of $486 (0.6%) in August.
2013-2014 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $806 (1.0%) in September compared to the average drop of $681 (0.8%) in August.
2013-2014 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $766 (1.1%) in September compared to the average depreciation of $710 (1.0%) in August.
2005-2012 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $301 (0.7%) in September compared to the $280 (0.7%) average drop in August.
2005-2012 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $367 (1.0%) in September compared to the $359 (1.0%) average depreciation in August.
2005-2012 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $353 (1.2%) in September compared to the average drop of $330 (1.1%) in August.
Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change
10/01/15 85,128 -480 -0.6% 79,137 -806 -1.0% 69,997 -766 -1.1% 2013-2014
09/01/15 85,608 -486 -0.6% 79,943 -681 -0.8% 70,763 -710 -1.0% 2013-2014
DATE
MODEL
YEARS
Constructional/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors
Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change
10/01/15 41,066 -301 -0.7% 36,865 -367 -1.0% 29,076 -353 -1.2% 2005-2012
09/01/15 41,367 -280 -0.7% 37,232 -359 -1.0% 29,429 -330 -1.1% 2005-2012
DATE
MODEL
YEARS
Constructional/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors
SPECIALTY MARKETS:
HEAVY DUTY
7
October 5, 2015
Medium Duty Segment takes a sharper decline
“How long will we see fuel prices continue to drop and will this decline delay the
purchase of more fuel efficient trucks?”
Bret Swanson, Editor – Medium Duty Truck Data
As we head into October, the Medium Duty segment took a little sharper dip. Let’s look at how these
trucks performed for the past two months. We see that in August, the four to ten year old trucks on
average, dropped $236. In September, this same group had an average decline of $349. This same type of
pattern shows up with the one and two year old models as well. In August, this group declined on average,
$504 compared to September’s decline of $644.
Diesel prices have continued their downward trek, after a slight uptick mid-September. This time last
month, the national average for a gallon of diesel stood at $2.51. With the overall decline since then, that
number has dropped to $2.47 per gallon.
1745 N. Brown Rd., Suite 130, Lawrenceville, GA 30043| 1.866.452.1400
www.blackbookauto.com| [email protected] Opt-in to receive reports from Black Book at http://www.blackbookauto.com/insights/market-insights
Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change
10/01/15 20,399 -349 -1.7% 2005-2012 10/01/15 45,527 -644 -1.4% 2013-2014
09/01/15 20,748 -236 -1.1% 2005-2012 09/01/15 46,171 -504 -1.1% 2013-2014
MODEL
YEARS
MODEL
YEARS DATE
Medium Duty
DATE
Medium Duty
-$0.02-$0.02-$0.02
+$0.02
-$0.05
-$1.28-$1.29-$1.28-$1.28-$1.30-$1.40
-$1.20
-$1.00
-$0.80
-$0.60
-$0.40
-$0.20
$0
+$0.20
09/28/1509/21/1509/14/1509/07/1508/31/15
Diesel Price Changes
Change/Week Change/Year
SPECIALTY MARKETS:
MEDIUM DUTY