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2018 JULY Br+Ir 30d Full Detail inc Maps + Graphs Produced under Solar Lunar Action Technique SLAT15a – Summary - Detailed weather periods - Maps – Graphs Including Solar-based likely corrections to apply to Short-range Standard Meteo Forecasts WeatherAction are the only LongRange forecasts with independent proven published peer-reviewed skill (Ref Home page/Forecasts) WeatherAction LR forecasts are not substitutes for short range. They inform weather sensitive decisions wks+mths ahead Dates +/-1 or 2 days. General confidence B 75%. Br+Ir, USA, Europe 5 mths ahead on line => www.WeatherAction.com

Confidential 2018 JULY 30d Br & Ir SLAT15a (SolarLunarActionTechnique) Prod 26 June from 35d/160d ahead choices. News (p1+2) Graph p5 © WeatherAction Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946

Britain & Ireland JULY 2018 Detailed Forecast Maps + Sea State, winds + confidences p 2-4, Timings +-1d / 2d

Summary similar 35d Slat15a with more extremes detail (delaying issue slightly) - changed from 160d Slat14c

Mostly dry hot sunny & wild changes Widespread heatwaves, regional thunder-hail deluges - More variable first 6 days (compared to late June) with some less warm / cooler days - mainly in North/West. - Heatwave* from 7th breaking to major thunderstorms (Nth) mid July followed by another heatwave (*1d earlier than 35d) - Later July mostly unsettled with major thunder & hail Eire & West UK at end. Heatwaves may give many wildfires. South & East (esp

later) mostly hotter than N/W parts of Britain / Ireland. Extreme deluges thunder, hail & tornado events 13-17

(Nth) & 28th-1st (Ire/West). (R5 periods, not in 160d forecast) Weather warnings & corrections to short range standard meteorology

Standard short range meteorology TV forecasts will underestimate rain, snow, thunder/ tornado risk, cyclogenesis risk & wind levels in WeatherAction Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique (SLAT) R5, R4 and to some extent R3 ‘Red weather’ extra impact periods (induced by solar activity). In/around such periods standard Met forecasts from 24hrs ahead of precip need to be typically ~doubled esp in R5s. These factors & modifications to improve TV forecasts are independent of details of pressure patterns, verified or not, for these periods.

© Weather Action™& Piers Corbyn™ © accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of forecast information. Application of forecasts is entirely at the user’s risk. None of this forecast may be published or circulated in media or on web or used in production of other forecasts without agreement.

Br+Ir & W Eu Late June heatwave confirms WeatherAction 130d+4wk ahead BI map pto

Piers Corbyn Mini Ice Age is here NEW Vid https://youtu.be/zDBbfDbaiA4

WeatherAction Long-Range forecasts High pressure pattern description in BI (pto) from 130d ahead & B+I & Eu detail of 25d ahead well confirmed in ECMWF short range.

Detail confirmed: High BI+NW Eu, Africa heat plumimg Low West of Iberia, Cold Low N Finland, Low far SE Eu/Cyprus Cold Low Iceland

2018 JULY 30d Br-Ir SLAT15a (SolarLunarActionTechnique) Prod 26 June using 35d/160d ahead choices Graphs p5. Confidential © WeatherAction

Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946

Time periods normally accurate to +/- one day. At least 6 of the 8 should be basically correct this month. Key Solar Lunar Action Periods Solar factors statement and improvements to be made to short-range forecasts when they come on TV are the most confident. Details are generally less certain.

= Traffic Light warning / descriptions for Weather periods: Red = danger / disruption, Green quiet/fine, Orange intermediate. For other warning notes and explanation see page 6

1-3 JULY 2018 B = 75% 4-6 JULY 2018 B = 75% Less warm & some showers eg in N/W. South UK and Eire dry and mostly fine. Warm at first, getting less warm especially in N/ W with more Cloud. (simil 35d)

Ireland and Scotland especially west: showery, less warm & more cloud. S/E England dry and fine. N/W England and Wales more variable sky and mostly dry. (Period ends 1d earlier than in 35d)

Winds: Becoming W/NW, mod in Nth; light variable Sth Winds: Light S/SW’ly

Temps: Getting less warm / cooler (espec nights) Temps: Cool far N/W; warm SE

Sky: Increasing cloud from N/W Sky: Cloudy N/W, fine SE

Solar Factors: R2 1-3 Solar Factors: R1 4-7

Late June Br+Ir Forecast Map

Likely possible weather map scenario: Atlantic Low pressures centred to north of BI. Higher pressure south.

Jet Stream: Essentially split

Likely possible weather map scenario: Atlantic Low pressures probably centred to N/W of Britain and Ireland. Higher pressure S/E & most other parts.

Jet Stream: Normal / blocked

Weather Action™ © & Piers Corbyn accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of forecast information. Application of forecasts is entirely at the user’s risk. None of this forecast may be published or circulated in media or web or used in production of other forecasts without agreement of Weather Action & Piers Corbyn. Media use is welcome but may only be from issued quotes to the media concerned or displays on www.weatheraction.com

Ch Isles Ch Isles

Mostly fine turning cooler/less warm (than eg late June)

Showery at times, cloudy getting cooler from West and North

Dry, fine + quite warm

Variable sky, possible showers, increasing cloud

Showery, cooler + cloudy

H H

(variable)

Mostly dry, coolish, variable sky

2018 JULY 30d Br-Ir SLAT15a (SolarLunarActionTechnique) Prod 26 June using 35d/160d ahead choices Graphs p5.

Confidential © WeatherAction Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946

Time periods normally accurate to +/- one day. At least 6 of the 8 should be basically correct this month. Key Solar Lunar Action Periods Solar factors statement and improvements to be made to short-range forecasts when they come on TV are the most confident. Details are generally less certain. = Traffic Light warning / descriptions for Weather periods: Red = danger / disruption, Green quiet/finr, Orange intermediate. For other warning notes and explanation see page 6

7-12 JULY 2018 BC = 70% 13-17 JULY 2018 B = 75% 18-21 JULY 2018 BC = 70% Heatwave - Quickly turning hot and very sunny over all Britain and Ireland. (much finer than 160d) WIDESPREAD WILDFIRES likely especially after 3 / 4 / 5 days of this ~5day heatwave. Timing starting 1d earlier than 35d

Becoming wet with major thunderstorms, tornado risk, damaging hail and windy with gales in Scotland, poss Nth Ireland & Nth England. Turning cool in Scotland . Mostly dry, fine and warm in south/SE.

Becoming Dry & sunny in all parts, developing v warm / heatwave Ireland and Britain especially in South England. (Simil 160d same as 35d) WIDESPREAD WILDFIRES.

Winds: Light, S/E’ly HOT WIND FROM EAST /SE ORIGINATING IN AFRICA

Winds: Westerly gales at sea/coasts N (of) Scotland Winds: Light, S/E’ly HOT WIND FROM EAST /SE ORIGINATING IN AFRICA

Temps: HOT - HEATWAVE Temps: cool North; warmish in South Temps: Hot, extreme heat

Sky: Sunny Sky: cloudy North, mostly dry in South Sky: Sunny

Solar Factors: R3 8-12 Solar Factors R5 13-17 Solar Factors: R3 / R2 18-21

Likely possible weather map scenario: High builds over Britain & Ireland extending into Scandinavia. East Scand and Eu lower pressure. Low South Iberia gives Afro-Spanish pluming of hot African air into France Britain Ireland and much of West Europe Jet Stream: Blocked/split.

Likely possible weather map scenario: Increasingly powerful low(s) track west to east into Scandinavia just north of Scotland. High pressure over Br+Ir pushed south/south west. Low pressure E Europe. Jet Stream: Normal / blocked.

Likely possible weather map scenario: High pressure builds quickly over Ireland & Britain probably becoming centred North (of) Britain. Low S/W Iberia giving Afro-Spanish pluming to West-Eu and Brit+Ire. Cold Low Germany-Poland-E Baltic Jet Stream: Essentially blocked.

Weather Action™ © & Piers Corbyn accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of forecast information. Application of forecasts is entirely at the user’s risk. None of this forecast may be published or circulated in media or web or used in production of other forecasts without agreement of Weather Action & Piers Corbyn. Media use is welcome but may only be from issued quotes to the media concerned or displays on www.weatheraction.com

Ch Isles Ch Isles Ch Isles Dry, fine + very warm / hot

Becomes wet & windy, major extreme thunder + hail + tornado risk

HEATWAVE Very fine, hot, sunny. WILDFIRES Heatwave - Becoming dry, very hot, sunny

in all parts. WIDESPREAD WILDFIRES H Mostly dry +

variable sky

H

H

2018 JULY 30d Br-Ir SLAT15a (SolarLunarActionTechnique) Prod 26 June using 35d/160d ahead choices Graphs p5.

Confidential © WeatherAction Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946

Time periods normally accurate to +/- one day. At least 6 of the 8 should be basically correct this month. Key Solar Lunar Action Periods Solar factors statement and improvements to be made to short-range forecasts when they come on TV are the most confident. Details are generally less certain. = Traffic Light warning / descriptions for Weather periods: Red = danger / disruption, Green quiet/finr, Orange intermediate. For other warning notes and explanation see page 6

22-24 JULY 2018 BC = 70% 25-27 JULY 2018 B = 75% 28 JULY – 1 AUG 2018 B = 75% Quickly turns wet windy & cold from Nth. South wetter + colder later. Colder & wetter (North) than 160d

Turns showery and cloudy Ireland, with thunder and hail. Britain variable sky warm / hot. Wetter + cooler (West / NW) than 160d.

Wet, windy & with gales / storms hail, thunder and tornado risk Ireland and West Britain. (far) Turning cool Ireland (Much wetter and cooler than 160d). E/SE likely stays HOT with wildfires.

Winds: Strong W / NW’ly in N, mod in South Winds: Mod/strong S/SW/cyclonic Ireland. S’ly mod/strong in East due to Euro blocking High.

Winds: S / SW-Cyclonic (Ireland) Sly Mod / strong in E / SE bringing extremely hot fast moving air (R5 driven) from France-(originating in Africa)

Temps: Cool/ suddenly colder in north Temps: Cool Ire, warm S/E Temps: Much cooler espec Ireland

Sky: Cloudy in N Sky: Cloudy Ireland Sky: Cloudy Ireland + W, SE less cloud

Solar Factors: R3 22-24 Solar Factors R3 25-27 Solar Factors: R5 Jul 28-Aug 1

Likely possible weather map scenario: Active Polar-type Low attacks Nth BI. Azores High extends to W Med. High E Finland+Russia. E Med Low-ish Jet Stream: Huge meanders/split.

Likely possible weather map scenario: Active Low attacks from W / NW of Br-Ir blocked by West Euro High. Azores extends to East Iberia. S Iberia Low. High N-Centre+E Scand. E Med Low-ish. Jet Stream: Normal/large meanders.

Likely possible weather map scenario: Powerful deep Low Ireland. High Azores extends into Iberia – W Med weak linked to (W) Scand High. E Med Low-ish. NW Africa-Spain Low gives SEVERE Africa-Spanish pluming to France/ W Eu

Jet Stream: Big meanders.

Weather Action™ © & Piers Corbyn accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of forecast information. Application of forecasts is entirely at the user’s risk. None of this forecast may be published or circulated in media or web or used in production of other forecasts without agreement of Weather Action & Piers Corbyn. Media use is welcome but may only be from issued quotes to the media concerned or displays on www.weatheraction.com

Ch Isles Ch Isles Ch Isles

Mostly dry, cooler

Becoming wet, windy + cool/cold

Wet + windy, major thunder + floods, hail + tornado risk

(L)

(L) Dry, hot, variable sky. More WILDFIRES possible. Dry + mostly fine

Showery, cloudy, thunder + hail

(L)

H

Showery / some showers – less further East. Thunder + hail. TORNADOES LIKELY.

EXTREME HEAT & HOT WIND + WILD-FIRES E/SE

2018 JULY 30d Br-Ir SLAT15a (SolarLunarActionTechnique) Prod 26 June using 35d/160d ahead choices. NEWS p1 & 2. Confidential © WeatherAction

Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946

Easy Look Forecast Graph JULY 2018 Br+Ir: 30d ahead detailed UPDATE of Longer Range. Normally accurate to 1 day. Showing likely rain, temperature & 'brightness' levels around the dates shown, NOT PRECISE DAILY PREDICTIONS. Weekends & holidays shaded. 1981-2010 norms standard.

Region; Rest of Britain & Ireland. For confidence of each weather period forecast refer to Date row. For possible Alternative Scenarios see notes on maps p2-4. NEWS p 1 & 2.

Advice on getting best from your graph: Print out & mark with a coloured pen on each graph the line or interpolated line which suits your area. Date Weekend => 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1st Confidence = > 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 70 70 70 70 70 75 75 75 75 75 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 ‘IN A WORD’ N showery, S fine Mostly fine Heatwave Major thunder Heatwave N/S split W/E split E/W split PRECIP % normal Showery N Dry exc Ire + N/W Brit Dry Wet N, dry S Dry Wet N Ire wet (major deluges); (Far) East Dry

Wet 400% plus

Wet 200%

Average 100% (e.g. 0.1inch)

Mostly Dry 50%

Dry 0%

WINDS Mod Light Light Windy / gales (north) Light Mod Mod Windy(Ire); HOT S wind in E Thund-tornado risk Low Low Mod V High Low/isolated Mod Mod V High MEAN Temps Rel to norm °C N cool, S warm Ire + W Scot cool Hot (Dangerous heat) Cool in N, S warm Hot (dangerous) Cooler Cool Ire Cool Ire, (far) E hot

+5C HOT +2.5C WARM NORMAL +/-

CET (1981-2010) mean start to end

Mean 15.6 to 16.6ºC -2.5C COOL

-5C VERY COOL

SKY/SUN % of normal N cloudy Mostly fine Sunny Cloudy in N Sunny Cloudy N Ire cloudy Cloud Ire; E sun

Sunny/Clear 200%

Variable 150%

Normal 100%

Cloudy 50%

Overcast 0%

Weekends / Hols

!st July Mostly Fine & warm/hot; less N/W. 7-8 July Heatwave + wildfire risk all parts. 14-15 July N Major rain hail thunder, tornadoes likely; S dry. 21-22 July Heatwve + wildfire risk all parts, dangerous heat. 28-29th July Deluges + hail Ireland; East Dry and hot (dangerous+ wildfire risk)

Weather Action™ © & Piers Corbyn accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of forecast information. Application of forecasts is entirely at the user’s risk. None of this forecast may be published or circulated in media or web or used in production of other forecasts without agreement of Weather Action & Piers Corbyn. Media use is welcome but may only be from issued quotes to the media concerned or displays on www.weatheraction.com

N

S/ E

Ire

Ire + West

Ire N

S E

N

S/E

S

S

N

N + Ire

S

N +Ire

S

Scotland / N N Ire

S E

S

N

Ire West

E

Ire

E S/E S

N

N

S

Ire

HEATWAVE + WILDFIRES

HEATWAVE + WILDFIRES

HEATWAVE +WILDFIRES

(East /SE)

(far) E / SE

(far) E / SE

(far) E / SE

Major (N) thunder hail floods tornadoes

Major (Ire) thunder hail floods tornadoes

2018 JULY 30d Br-Ir SLAT15a (SolarLunarActionTechnique) Prod 26 June using 35d/160d ahead choices NEWS P1 & 2 Confidential. © WeatherAction

Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946

JULY 2018 Britain & Ireland Forecast deviations from normal. (rel to 1981-2010 averages) PRECIPITATION % of normal (area averages) MEAN TEMP deviation from local normal SUNSHINE/SKY % of normal

WELL BELOW NORMAL in all parts. Ireland closer to normal. DROUGHT in many parts

OVERALL HOT. WILD CHANGES. Overall Less hot in Ireland. Some cold nights.

Mostly very SUNNY, Ireland closer to normal.

JULY 2018 Notes and Additional Information Confidence order: STR Sun and Temp more confident than amounts of rain (regionalized)

Main uncertainty: Penetration of fronts attacking Britain & Ireland form West

Main Warnings: Many dangerous extremes: heatwaves, wildfires thunderfloods, tornadoes

Key Solar Lunar Action Periods. Solar factors statement and improvements to be made to short-range forecasts when they come on TV are the most confident of forecast statements. Details are generally less certain. In periods of Extra Activity (R5, R4, R3) weather fronts are (much) more active than Standard Met Forecasts (Smfs) as on TV a few days ahead of events - making more rain, cloud, thunder, wind, & tornado risk. R5 (Red 5) = most extreme / dangerous. Q = Quieter. NSF = No Specific Solar Factors. JSS = Jet Stream South tendency. Confidence levels A (85%), AB (80%), B (75%), BC (70%); C (65%)

Confidence levels Information on Confidence and Timing of weather events and weather periods. 'A' - about 85% chance of being essentially right, 15% of being unhelpful. 'B' - about 75% chance of being essentially right, 25% of being unhelpful. 'C' - about 65% chance of being essentially right, 35% of being unhelpful

The Headline summary (page 1) is the most confident summary statement about the month. The Key weather type / development notes (page 1) gives main developments through the month. The detailed most likely weather periods, typically of around 4 days duration, are the Solar Lunar Action Technique highest resolution long range forecast detail. They are not to be taken as exact predictions & include confidence levels. The weather period timings in period details (p 2–4) are most likely core time periods for the weather events or weather types specified. If the events / types occur the core time periods should include the specified events / types on at least 85% of occasions; with a probability of 15% or less that they occur in the wings of an extended time period which is one or two days longer than the given core on each side* . The time window does not mean that all that period will have certain (e.g.) extreme events but that they are expected to occur at some time during that period. The most probable sub-parts of periods for events may also be stated. [*Or poss longer in: (i) long weather periods, (ii) longest range forecasts where 1% uncertainty in 300 days ahead is 3 days or (iii) where consecutive weather periods are similar.]

© . Weather Action & Piers Corbyn ™ © accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of forecast information. Application of forecasts is entirely at the user’s risk. None of this forecast may be published or circulated in media or web or used in production of other forecasts without specific agreement of Weather Action & Piers Corbyn. Newspaper or media use is welcome but may only be from a specific issued statement from WeatherAction or agreed with the newspaper or media concerned. The news content of this bulletin is entirely public. Weather Action’s forecast skill has been independently peer-review verified in the Journal of Atmospheric & Solar-Terrestrial Physics Vol 63 (2001) p29-34, Dennis Wheeler, Univ of Sunderland.]. Research Reports by Weather Action / Piers Corbyn on Solar Activity / Climate Change/Global warming available including at the Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow, Institute of Physics, London. and New York E:piers@weatheraction.com for latest or visit www.weatheraction.com . WeatherAction, Delta House, 175-177 Borough High St, London SE1 1HR. Tel 020 7939 9946

Ch I

Normal / Above +0.5 to +2.0 C

Very warm +1.5 to +3.5C

Ch I

Ch I

Below / close

to normal, 55%-90%

Extremely dry, 0% to 25% DROUGHT

Very sunny, 150% to 250% of normal

Sunny / normal 100%-150%

Well below normal 20%-50% widespread

DROUGHT

Below normal 40%-60%

Near record heat

+3.0 to + 5.5C

Sunny inc contrasts, 140% to 200% of normal.