MOTIVATION FOR PHEV/BEV FEASIBILITY STUDY...MOTIVATION FOR PHEV/BEV FEASIBILITY STUDY At the outset, replacement of conventional fossil-fuel driven public transportation fleets with

MOTIVATION FOR PHEV/BEV FEASIBILITY STUDY

At the outset, replacement of conventional fossil-fuel driven public transportation fleets with cleaner and greener Plug-in Hybrid/BEV alternatives seems lucrative

Parameter Conventional Diesel

Plug-in Hybrid/BEV

Fuel Savings

Fuel Economy

Tailpipe CO2 Emissions

Noise Pollution

Initial Cost

Operating & Running Cost

Favorable Unfavorable

GLOBAL SCENARIO OF ELECTRIC BUSES/PILOTS

City/Country Bus Technology Bus Manufacturer Project Details

Bangalore BEV BYD Pilot tested

Gothenburg PHEV Volvo Test Stage Completed

Stockholm PHEV Volvo Test Stage

London HEV

Alexander Dennis

Volvo

WrightBus

800 diesel-electric hybrids

(NewRoutemasters) are running on

commercial routes

London PHEV Alexander Dennis Test Stage

US (Texas, Collarado,

Iowa) HEV BYD Test Stage

US (Long Beach, Los

Angeles)BEV BYD

Test Stage Complete

Commercial operation to begin

HongKong BEV BYD Test Stage

Shenzhen HEV

BEV

BYD

Wuzhoulong MotorsCommercial operation

Madrid HEV

Tata Hispano Motors

BYD

Hino Motors

Trial Operations with 10 buses

Japan (Hamura, Tokyo) BEV Hno Motors Commercial operation

Amsterdam BEV BYD35 Buses to be supplied for Airport

Operation

Poland BEV BYD Test Stage

Canada BEV BYD Test Stage

Israel BEV BYD700 Buses to be supplied for trials and

operation

Uruguay BEV BYD500 buses to be suppplied to Tourism

Department

Singapore BEV BYD Test Stage

OVERVIEW OF ELECTRIC DRIVE TECHNOLOGIES Technology Main Characteristics

HEV

• Uses electric motor + IC engine to propel vehicle • IC engine powered by conventional fuel • Motor powered by battery (charged through mechanical means such

as Regenerative Braking)

PHEV

• Propulsion similar to HEV • Motor powered by Battery and/or IC engine • Battery charged through plug-in electricity

BEV

• Propulsion through electric traction motor • Battery is only source to power motor and ancillary systems • Relatively large on-board battery

Depending on the degree of electrification

of propulsion system:

• Hybrid Electric Vehicle • Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle • Battery Electric Vehicle • Fuel Cell electric technologies

Figure: Different Degrees of Electrification of Vehicles

Energy Source Propulsion Device

Fuel Economy Benefits

(BEV uses no liquid fuel) HEV PHEV

Tailpipe Emission Reduction Benefits

HEV PHEV BEV

Operating and Running Fuel cost

savings

HEV BEV PHEV Increasing

Comparative Analysis of benefits from different electric drive technologies

PHEV POWERTRAIN ARCHITECTURES

Fig 1: Series Drivetrain Architecture Fig 2: Parallel Drivetrain Architecture Fig 3: Series-Parallel Hybrid Drivetrain Architecture

POWERTRAIN ARCHITECTURE

PARAMETERSSERIES HYBRID PARALLEL HYBRID

Prime Mover• Electric Motor Provides torque to axle

• IC Engine runs generator that charges battery

• Both Electric Motor and IC Engine provide torque

• IC Engine also acts as prime mover when necessary

Modes of Operation

• Charge Depleting Mode (CDM)

• Charge Sustaining Mode (CSM)

• Blended Mode

• CDM

• CSM

• Blended Mode

• Mixed Mode

Battery & All Electric Range• Bigger Battery Size

• Longer electric range

• Comparitively Smaller Battery size

• Limited electric range

Motor Size Larger motor Smaller Motor

Transmission SystemDoes not require conventional transmission

(Since IC engine not prime mover)

Requires conventional transmission

(IC engine and motor are prime movers)

Operational suitability

charging

Suitable for Small/Mid-range application (urban

environment)Suitable for Long Range applications (highways)

BATTERY TECHNOLOGY

Battery System (Complete without

charger) 2012 2015 2020

Li-ion (includes sophisticated BMS

and cooling) 600-750 400-500 250-300

NiMH (includes imple BMS & cooling

for HEV only) 500-700 400-500 350-400

NiCd (includes simple controller) 400-600 350-450 300-350

Lead-Acid/SLA (includes simple

controller) 220-250 200-220 180-200

Desirable features of an electrical battery pack are:

• Powerful • Durable • Dense

PHEV: Fast Charging Batteries Two characteristics of a battery make it feasible in an urban bus system:

• Rapid Charging (minimize time spent on charging)

• Long Cycle Life (minimal replacement of battery)

These conditions are satisfactorily fulfilled by a new breed of Li-ion

batteries called the Lithium Titanate Batteries (full name lithium metatitanate; Li4Ti5O12 or LTO). • LTO battery has been tested and proved to be most appropriate choice

for electric vehicles (PHEV in particular)

• Two key manufacturers of the LTO currently are Toshiba and Altair Nanomaterials.

This figure shows common batteries in automotive field. Lithium and Ni-MH batteries main stream for electric (PHEV, HEV, EV) and commercial (IC) vehicles Due to their shown

characteristics, Li-ion batteries are extremely suitable for use in electric vehicles..

5 times energy density

High Initial Cost

Low Discharge Rates

Sustained High Performance

Low Maintenance Cost

Longer Lifespan

Li-ion v/s Sealed Lead Acid (SLA) Batteries (automotive Batteries)

Cost Considerations The high costs are bound to decrease on Y-O-Y basis with tremendous amount of research being conducted in this area. Following table gives a cost projection of different battery types in USD/kWh

GOTHENBURG TRIALS: VOLVO PHEV CASE STUDY

Aspirations Uncertainties

Silent Durability

Fuel and energy efficient Vehicle Range

Low or Zero emissions Cost

Green House Gas reduction Infrastructure Compatibility

Sustainable energy resources

During 2013, Volvo buses undertook field testing of its plug-in hybrid model Electric 7900 in Gothenburg as a part of its Sweden electro-mobility plan. Three PHEV buses have been running on the public transportation system of Gothenburg since the summer of 2013.

ELECTRO-MOBILITY PLAN Step-by-Step Implementation (from Diesel to)

1) Confirmed Hybrid technology 2) a) Plug-in hybrids without charging

b) Plug-in hybrids with charging 3) Full Electric Buses

Phase I Introduction of Hybrid

Buses lowers fuel consumption by 40%

(Complete)

Phase II Introduction of charging

stations enable 75% electric drive with reliability of

diesel

Phase III Electric Buses introduced in city center and PHEV stays

efficient in inter-city operations

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Diesel HEV PHEV BEV Figure: Different Phases of Electro-mobility Plan


Electric Drive Technology PHEV

Charging Methodology Rapid/Fast Charging

Charging Technology Conductive Charging

Charging InfrastructureOverhead Charging (using

rooftop pantographs)

Bus Technology: Volvo Electric 7900

Drivetrain

Components

Small Diesel Engine

Lithium-ion Battery

Electric Motor

`Electric Motor Volvo I-SAM

Output: 150kW

Torque(max): 1200 Nm

Charging

Technology

BusBaar Rapid

Charging

(overhead

pantograph)

Li-ion Battery Voltage: 600V

Total Capacity: 19kWh

Charging Stations Route end stations Diesel Engine Volvo D5F215 EURO

V/EEV with

Charging Time 5-8 minutes Length 12m

All-electric

Distance

8-10kms Height 3280m

Fuel Saving 75% Width 2550m

Energy Reduction 60% Passenger

Capacity

95

CO2 Reduction 75% No. of Seats

(max)

32+1(folded)

Company Specifications


Field Trial Results

• PHEV fuel consumption is <11 litres per 100km (81% less than conventional diesel) • Total energy consumption – based on electricity and diesel- is 60% lower overall

• Appx 7km of all electric distance (70% of the trial route)

• Charging time ranges from 6-10 minutes • Tailpipe CO2 reductions estimated to be around 75% lower

The Way Ahead • Gothenburg continues in 2014 until completion of 10,000 operating hours • Stockholm has begun a demonstration with 8 Volvo Electric 7900 (PHEV) buses and 2 charging stations • Hamburg and Luxemburg have placed orders for starting demo runs • 7900 Electric Hybrid model has been launched in IAA 2014 • Commercial production by Volvo to commence from 2016

TfL (Travel For London) Electro-mobility Case Study

TfL Hybrid (HEV) Bus Fleet

• London Bus fleet around 8700 buses

• Carries 2.3 billion passengers per year serving over 700 routes with 20,000 stops

• Around 800 are hybrids (HEVs) (including New

Routemasters)

• Deliver minimum 30% reduction in CO2 and 30% better fuel economy

• More being introduced in a rolling program

• Target is 20% (1700) fleet substitution by hybrid buses by

2016 • Projected tailpipe reduction in CO2 emissions upon 20%

substitution is around 20,600 tonnes a year


TfL Electric Bus (BEV) Trials

• All single deck buses • Total count of electric buses in London is 6 and target

was 8 by 2015 • High initial costs but low O&M • Charging time: 5hrs overnight or 2hrs with fast charging • Typical range: 160km (subject to operating conditions)

Challenges for Electric Buses • Size of batteries; a range of 250km requires a

battery of over 2 tonnes (weight of 30 passengers) • Impact of ancillary loads reduces available range • During extreme weather conditions, ancillary loads

(HVAC, lights, air compressor, power steering, battery cooling) could take up as much energy as moving vehicle


TfL Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) Trials

• Aim to operate vehicles on grid electricity as much as

possible (70% electric distance)

• Buses being provided by Alexander Dennis and charging technology by IPT Technology

• Demo on Route 69 between Canning Town and

Walthamstow bus stations (appx 12km)

• London buses operate in a highly busy environment • Wireless charging is the selected method because of its

convenience to quickly charge buses

• Recharging at end stations (like Gothenburg)

• Alexander Dennis Enviro400H E400 buses (double deck)

PHEV CASE STUDY FOR AHMEDABAD MTS

PARAMETER VALUE SOURCE

Total Fleet 942 AMTS Data

Fleet Utilization 84.80% Metropolitan fleet Data

Rapid Charging Time (8C) (minutes) 10 Volvo Gotheburg Test Results

Nominal Cost of Diesel (Rs/L) 66 mypetrolprice.com

Y-O-Y increase in Diesel Price 7% Historic Trends rom mypetrolprice.com

LTO battery Cost ('000 Rs/kWh) 30 Roland Berger Strategic Consultant Battery

Projections Report 2012

Y-O-Y decrease in battery cost 9% Roland Berger Strategic Consultant Battery

Projections Report 2012

ICEV Diesel Fuel Efficiency (km/l) 5 AMTS Data

PHEV Diesel Fuel Efficiency (km/l) 8 Proterra and Volvo trials

Electric mileage (kWh/km) 2 Volvo Gotheburg Test Results

Research work on Electric buses Electricity Equivalency (tCO2/kWh) 0.00078 CEA Data for NEWNE Grids

Diesel Equivalency (tCO2/litre) 0.00287 IPCC 2006 Guidelines

Normal Electricity Charges (Rs/unit) 3.9 Torrent Power Ltd-Ahmedabad

Peak Electricity Charges (Rs/unit) 4.6 Torrent Power Ltd-Ahmedabad

Demand Charges (Rs/kW/month) 210 Torrent Power Ltd-Ahmedabad

The following analysis carried out for the Ahmedabad MTS : 1) Charging Infrastructure Analysis 2) Cost Analysis 3) Energy Consumption/Savings Patterns 4) CO2 Emission Patterns

Variables Used: 1) Level of PHEV Fleet Substitution 2) Level of PHEV Electromobility (electric

distance as fraction of total distance)

Assumptions Used

ASSUMPTION VALUE

Life of bus (years) 10 Cost of PHEV (Rs lakh) 300

Vehicle Productivity 250

Operational days per year 300

Battery Technology Toshiba LTO

Battery Size 24kWh (380kg)

Parameters Used

PHEV CASE STUDY FOR AMTS: Charging Infrastructure • PHEV operation in busy urban environment becomes

practical only with intra-day charging

• Intra-day charging causes hindrance to travel time and so practical only with fast/rapid charging infrastructure.

• The charging analysis is based on the assumption that

Rapid Charging Infrastructure has been used.

Two-fold objectives of Charging Infrastructure

1. It allows maximum possible electromobility (electric distance travelled) within constraints of practical operational

2. Minimum time is spent on charging during routine operation

Practical Operation Constraints Inter-City (250km): Alternate Stations (and in-turn successive charging) are at least 40 km apart. Increase in journey time (due to charging) is at most 20% Intra-City (250km per day): Selected routes are such that charging done at end-stations.

PHEV CASE STUDY FOR AMTS: Charging Infrastructure

Charging Parameters PHEV (% electromobility)

100% 80% 60% 40% 30% 20% 10%

Battery Capacity 24kWh 24kWh 24kWh 24kWh 24kWh 24kWh 24kWh

Electric Distance Travelled in single Charge (km)

12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Number of Charging Stations Required on route

20 16 12 8 6 4 2

Distance between charging Stations (km)

12.5 15.6 20.8 31.3 41.7 62.5 125.0

Number of Charging Cycles per day

22 18 14 10 8 6 4

Chargin time per trip (hrs) 3.7 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.7

Number of charging cycles per year

6600 5400 4200 3000 2400 1800 1200

Number of Battery Replacements during vehicle lifespan

6 5 4 3 2 1 1

Journey Parameters Conventional

Diesel

PHEV (% electromobility)

100% 80% 60% 40% 30% 20% 10%

Distance Travelled per Day (km)

250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250

Avergae Speed (kmph) 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40

Fuelling/Charging Time (hrs) 0 3.7 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.7

Total Journey Time (hrs) 7.3 11.0 10.3 9.6 9.0 8.6 8.3 8.0

The tables contain estimated values for different Journey Parameters and Charging Parameters. Selection of Appropriate Electromobility Level for long haul and short haul distances depends on these parameters



100% 80% 60% 40% 30% 20% 10%



12 12 12 12 12 12 12


20 16 12 8 6 4 2


12.5 15.6 20.8 31.3 41.7 62.5 125.0


22 18 14 10 8 6 4



6600 5400 4200 3000 2400 1800 1200

Number of Battery Replacements during lifespan

6 5 4 3 2 1 1

Journey Parameters Conventional Diesel


100% 80% 60% 40% 30% 20% 10%


250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250



Total Journey Time (hrs) 7.3 11.0 10.3 9.6 9.0 8.6 8.3 8.0 Increase in journey time is 10% - 18% due to added charging time Hence, electromobility levels of 30% and below favorable for Long Haul Journey

Distance between successive stations (and charging) on the route ranges from 41-125 km Hence, electromobility levels of 30% and below favorable for Long Haul Journey

Practicality Considerations for Inter-City Journey (Long Haul)



100% 80% 60% 40% 30% 20% 10%



12 12 12 12 12 12 12


20 16 12 8 6 4 2


12.5 15.6 20.8 31.3 41.7 62.5 125.0


22 18 14 10 8 6 4



6600 5400 4200 3000 2400 1800 1200

Number of Battery Replacements during lifespan

6 5 4 3 2 1 1

Journey Parameters Conventional

Diesel


100% 80% 60% 40% 30% 20% 10%


250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250



Total Journey Time (hrs) 7.3 11.0 10.3 9.6 9.0 8.6 8.3 8.0

Practicality Considerations for Intra-City Journey (Short Haul)

Distance between successive stations (and charging) decides the route on which PHEV are deployed So, a route distance of 12 km can have a PHEV running at 100% electromobility Hence, High electromobility is favorable for short intra-city routes

Increase in journey time is translated into reduced number of trips per day and so not significant Hence, High electromobility is favorable for intra-city travel

PHEV CASE STUDY FOR AMTS: Cost Analysis

Cash Flow representation for one PHEV bus operating at 60% electromobiliy (i.e 60% electric distance) • Life of bus is 10 years

• Battery is 24kWh Toshiba Scib

LTO(assumption)

• Involves 3 battery replacements over the lifespan

• With more substitution of fleet with PHEV buses, increase in diesel savings is much more than increase in fuel costs

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

(‘0

00

Rs)

Year (life of bus)

Single PHEV Cash Flow: 60% Electromobility

Bus Cost ('0000 Rs) Diesel Savings ('000 Rs) Battery Costs ('000 Rs) Fuel Costs ('000 Rs)(Electricity + Diesel)

(25,000)

(20,000)

(15,000)

(10,000)

(5,000)

-

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

CA

PEX

: Bu

s an

d C

har

gin

g In

fras

tru

ctu

re C

ost

(m

illio

n R

s)

Axis Title

PHEV Fleet Substitution

60% Electromobility 80% Electromobility 100% Electromobility

(1,400)

(1,200)

(1,000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

-

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bat

tery

Re

pla

cem

en

t C

ost

s

(mil

lion

Rs)

Axis Title



(7,000)

(6,000)

(5,000)

(4,000)

(3,000)

(2,000)

(1,000)

-

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Fuel

(El

ect

ric+

Die

sel)

Co

sts

(m

illio

n R

s)

Axis Title



-

10,00,000

20,00,000

30,00,000

40,00,000

50,00,000

60,00,000

70,00,000

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Die

sel S

avin

gs (

mill

ion

Rs)



PHEV CASE STUDY FOR AMTS: Cost Analysis Figure 1: Total capital costs for varying levels of PHEV fleet substitution at different electromobility levels

Figure 2: Battery costs (from replacements) for varying levels of PHEV fleet substitution at different electromobility levels

Figure 4: Total Diesel monetary savings for varying levels of PHEV fleet substitution at different electromobility levels

Figure 3: Total fuel (electric + diesel) costs for varying levels of PHEV fleet substitution at different electromobility levels

**All cash flows shown in figures have been estimated over the lifespan of Bus (10 years)

-

10,00,000

20,00,000

30,00,000

40,00,000

50,00,000

60,00,000

70,00,000

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Ne

t P

rese

nt

Val

ue

(ove

r 1

0 y

ear

Lif

e) (

mil

lion

Rs)



PHEV CASE STUDY FOR AMTS: Cost Analysis

• For a given level of fleet substitution and electromobility, the different cash flows are used to estimate the Net Present Value (NPV) of the bus over its lifetime (10 years) (Discount Rate taken as 5%)

• The graph clearly shows a positive correlation between the NPV and level of substitution

• Highly positive NPV can be attributed to huge savings accrued from reduction in Diesel usage

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Elec

tric

ity

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

MU

s/ye

ar)



0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Elec

tric

ity

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n a

s %

of

Ah

med

abad

En

ergy

Req

uir

emen

t

0.00%

0.02%

0.04%

0.06%

0.08%

0.10%

0.12%

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Elec

tric

ity

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n a

s %

of

Gu

jara

t En

ergy

Req

uir

emen

t



PHEV CASE STUDY FOR AMTS: Energy Consumption

Figure 1: Annual electricity consumption for varying levels of PHEV fleet substitution at different electromobility levels

Figure 2: Annual electricity consumption as a fraction of Ahmedabad and Gujarat annual energy requirement

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Die

sel S

avin

gs (

kL/y

ear)



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Die

sel C

on

sum

pti

on

(kL

/yea

r)



PHEV CASE STUDY FOR AMTS: Energy Consumption

Figure 3: Annual diesel consumption by PHEV buses for varying levels of fleet substitution at different electromobility levels

Figure 4: Annual diesel savings by shift from conventional bus to PHEV bus for varying levels of fleet substitution at different electromobility levels

0

20

40

60

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Me

tric

to

nn

es

of

CO

2

Life of Bus (year)

Single PHEV Net Emission Data 60% Electromobility; 5% Renewable Fraction*

CO2 Emitted (metric tonnes) CO2 Saved (metric tonnes)

PHEV CASE STUDY FOR AMTS: CO2 Emission Pattern

• The emission estimates take into account a. CO2 emitted by coal based grid electricity generation which is in-turn used for charging PHEVs b. Tailpipe emissions

• The saving estimates take into account savings in tailpipe emission • Higher renewable fraction (higher fraction of electricity coming from clean sources) reduces net

emissions by a PHEV *Renewable fraction means fraction of grid electricity generation that comes from renewable (zero-emission) sources

Figure2: Net emissions and savings of CO2 with substitution of one conventional bus with a PHEV bus at the given levels

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Me

tric

to

nn

es o

f C

O2

Life of Bus (years)

Single PHEV Emission Data Tailpipe Emission; 60% Electromobility

Tailpipe CO2 Emitted (metric tonnes) CO2 Saved (metric tonnes)

Figure1: Tailpipe emissions and savings of CO2 with substitution of one conventional bus with a PHEV bus at the given levels

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Highly positive NPVs have been observed for PHEV fleet substitution over the life of project. There is a positive correlation between NPV and the levels of substitution (due to non-linear increase in accrued diesel savings)

Taking into account practical considerations of charging infrastructure following observations have been made for inter-city and intra-city PHEV bus usage: Inter-City: PHEV20 - PHEV30 are more favorable Intra-City: PHEV60 - PHEV100 are more favorable

Maximum annual electricity consumption (100% electromobility & 100% fleet substitution) is only 1.08% of

annual Ahmedabad energy requirement

PHEV fleet substitution reduces tailpipe CO2 emission with the reduction ranging from 50% (20% Electromobility) to 100% (100% electromobility)

PHEV fleet substitution project becomes a NET SAVER of CO2 emissions only at (or above) 65-70% renewable fraction. Below this fraction the project acts as a NET EMITTER of CO2

Documents

MOTIVATION FOR PHEV/BEV FEASIBILITY STUDY...MOTIVATION FOR PHEV/BEV FEASIBILITY STUDY At the outset, replacement of conventional fossil-fuel driven public transportation fleets with