Feasibility and Implications of

Moving to a 100% Renewable

Power System in New York and

United States

Mark Z. Jacobson IBM Research

Atmosphere/Energy Program New York

Stanford University June 17, 2015

What’s the Problem? Why act Quickly?

Air pollution causes 4-7 mil. premature air pollution deaths/yr worldwide. In the

U.S., 62,000/yr, costing 3.2% of U.S. GDP.

U.S. emissions may cost world u~$3 tril./yr in climate costs by 2050

Increasing fossil energy use increases energy prices economic, social,

political instability

Drastic problems require immediate solutions.

Beijing, China, Jan 11-14, 2013

Lung of LA Teenage

Nonsmoker in 1970s;

SCAQMD/CARB

Global Warming of 0.92 K=1.66 F Since 1900

NASA GISS, 2014

Primary Contributors to Net Observed

Global Warming

-2

-1

0

1

2

Tem

per

atu

re C

han

ge

Sin

ce 1

75

0 (

oC

)

Green-housegases

Fossil-fuel

+ biofuelsoot

particles

Urbanheat

island

Coolingparticles

Netobserved

globalwarming

ELECTRICITY TRANSPORTATION HEATING/COOLING INDUSTRY

Wind Battery-electric Electric heat pumps Electric resistance

Solar PV/CSP Hydrogen fuel cell Electric resistance Electric arc furnaces

Geothermal Cryogenic H2 Solar water preheat Induction furnaces

Hydro Dielectric heating

Tidal/Wave Hydrogen

Wind, Water, Solar (WWS) All-Sector Solutions to Energy

and Job Security, Air Pollution, Global Warming

Energy & Env. Sci, 2, 148 (2009)

ELECTRICITY HEATING/COOLING OTHER

CSP with storage Water Hydrogen

Pumped hydro Ice Demand-response

Existing hydroelectric Soil

Types of Storage for 100% WWS System

50-70 times more CO2 and air

pollution per kWh than wind

Methane from natural gas a main

contributor to Arctic ice loss.

Natural gas mining, transport, and

use causes 5000 premature

mortalities/year in the U.S.

Hydrofracking causes land and

water supply degradation and

enhanced methane leaks.

Why Not Natural Gas?

Gas wells in Upper Green

River Valley, WY:

Ecoflight.org

50 times more CO2 emissions per

kWh than wind

150 times more air pollutant

emissions per kWh than wind

Requires 25% more energy, thus

25% more coal mining and transport

and traditional pollution than normal

coal.

Why Not Clean Coal

(With Carbon Capture)?

Clean coal mining with wind

turbines obscuring the view:

Jonathan Leake

9-25 times more pollution per kWh than wind from mining & refining

uranium and using fossil fuels for electricity during the 10-19 years to permit

(6-10 y) and construct (4-9 y) nuclear plant compared with 2-5 years for a

wind or solar farm

Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted)

Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation

Unresolved waste issues

Why Not Nuclear?

Cellulosic E854.7-35.4% of US

Solar PV-BEV0.077-0.18%

Corn E859.8-17.6% of

US

Wind-BEVFootprint 1-2.8 km2

Turbine spacing

0.35-0.7% of US

Geoth BEV0.006-0.008%

Nuclear-BEV0.05-0.062%

Footprint 33%

of total; the rest is

buffer

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

End-Use Power Demand For All

PurposesYear and Fuel Type World US New York

2010 (TW) 12.8 2.5 0.092

2050 with current fuels (TW) 21.6 2.6 0.086

2050 WWS (TW) 13.4 1.6 0.055

2050 Reduction w/ WWS (%) 38 39 36

TECHNOLOGY PCT SUPPLY 2050 NUMBER

5-MW onshore wind turbines 31% 328,000

5-MW offshore wind turbines 19.1 156,200

5-kW Res. roof PV systems 3.98 75 million

100-kW com/gov roof PV systems 3.24 2.7 million

50-MW Solar PV plants 30.7 46,500

100-MW CSP plants 7.30 2,300

100-MW geothermal plants 1.25 208

1300-MW hydro plants 3.01 3

1-MW tidal turbines 0.14 8,800

0.75-MW wave devices 0.37 36,100

100%

Number of New Plants to Power U.S. in 2050 For All Purposes

Tidal+wave (0.51%)Spacing 0.01% of U.S.

Onshore wind (30.9%)Footprint 4.3 km2

Spacing 1.6% of USOffshore wind (19.1%)Footprint 2.0 km2

Spacing 0.76% of U.S.

Hydroelectric (3.01%)0.020% of U.S.

PV+CSP plants (38.0%)0.31% of U.S

Roof PV (7.2%)0.052% of U.S.

Geothermal (1.25%)0.001% of U.S.

Additional Area Needed to Power 100% of 50 States for all

Purposes With Wind, Water, & Solar in 2050

All solar over land in high-solar locations~ 340 TW

= 25 times world end-use WWS power demand 2050 of 13.4 TW

Surface downward solar radiation (W/m2) (global avg: 193; land: 183)

100

150

200

250

-180 -90 0 90 180-90

0

90

World Surface Solar

-180 -90 0 18090

0

-90

90

6

2

10

4

8

All wind over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 70-80 TW

= ~5-6 times world end-use WWS power demand 2050 of 13.4 TW

World Wind Speeds at 100m

Power extracted by 328,000 onshore and

156,000 offshore 5-MW turbines providing

50% all-purpose U.S. Power 2050 and loss in

power extracted when competition among

turbines for KE accounted for (8.5%)

b) 4ox5

o ∆ Power extracted W/m

2 (-0.077 TW total)

-0.07

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

-140 -120 -100 -80 -60

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

554

ox5

o Power extracted w/feedback (W/m

2) (0.828 TW total)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

-140 -120 -100 -80 -60

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Jacobson et al. (2015)

Matching 100% 2050-2055 U.S. Load With WWS for 6 Years

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

0 12 24 36 48 60 72

Total electricity+heat generation before losses

Load+Dstored energy+storage losses+T&D losses+shed energy

D E

ner

gy e

ach m

onth

(T

Wh/m

onth

)

Month of simulation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 12 24 36 48 60 72

D E

ner

gy e

ach m

onth

(T

Wh/m

onth

)

Month of simulation

Wind

Total electricity+heatgeneration before losses

Solar-elec

Hydro

Wave+tidal+geo

Solar-thermal

Jacobson et al. (2015)

Matching 100% U.S. Load With WWS July 1-4, 2052

Jacobson et al. (2015)

Matching 100% U.S. Load With WWS July 1-4, 2052

Wind onshore 3.7 -8.1

Wind offshore 11 -21.4

Geothermal 8.9 -14.2

Hydroelectric 4 -6

CSP with 18 hr storage 11.8 -13

Utility-scale solar PV 7.2 -8.6

Commercial rooftop PV 12.6 -17.7

Residential rooftop PV 18.0 -26.5

Gas combined cycle 6.1 -8.7

Gas peaking 17.9 -23.0

Advanced pulverized coal 6.6 -15.1

Diesel generator 29.7 -33.2

2014 Unsubsidized Costs of Energy (¢/kWh)

Lazard (2014)

Health & Climate Cost Savings due to WWS

Air pollution causes ~62,000 premature mortalities each

year in the U.S. and injures hundreds of thousands more,

costing ~$510 billion/year, or ~3.2% of U.S. GDP

July 15, 2012 by DS Jacobson

Jobs From WWS in the United States

WWS will generate 3.9 million

40-yr construction jobs and 2

million 40-yr operation jobs in

the U.S.

These gains will exceed the 3.9

million jobs lost in the fossil and

nuclear industries

Info.ussolarinstitute.com

Timeline for U.S. Transition to WWS

Katrina Isaac

Data from Central Florida Hurricane Center

Modeled (GATOR-black and GFDL) vs.

Observed Tracks of Katrina and Isaac

No turbines With turbines

Hurricane Katrina Surface Winds

August 28, 22:00 GMT

-95 -90 -85 -80

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2200 GMT 8/28/05 Wind speed 15 m AGL (m/s) New Orleans turbs (7.66; peak: 45.6)

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No turbines With turbines

Hurricane Katrina Surface Winds

August 29, 18:00 GMT

-95 -90 -85 -80

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1800 GMT 8/29/05 Wind speed 15 m AGL (m/s) no turbines (7.05; peak: 37.4)

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1800 GMT 8/29/05 Wind speed 15 m AGL (m/s) New Orleans turbs (6.80; peak: 35.0)

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Reduces power demand ~39%

Eliminates ~62,000 premature air pol deaths/yr ($510 bil ~3.2% of GDP)

Eliminates up to $3.3 trillion/year global climate costs

Creates 3.9 mil 40-y construction; 2.0 million 40-y operation jobs

Costs 3.9 mil fossil and nuclear jobs

Requires only 0.42% U.S. land for footprint; 1.6% for spacing

WWS w/storage+DRM gives 100% reliability @ ~11-12 ¢/kWh

Barriers : up-front costs, transmission needs, lobbying, politics.

Materials are not limits

Summary – Converting U.S. to 100% WWS

Articles and dataweb.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-

USState-plans.html

Infographic maps

www.thesolutionsproject.org

Shots of Awe – The Solutions Projecthttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnY_FlaYqUk

Tommy and the Professor

http://100.org/tommy-time-bro/

Some Media Content to Date

Snap Poll (Note: All Polls are Anonymous)

Do you believe it is possible to change the energy infrastructure to an entirely clean and

renewable one in the next 30 years?

Yes

No

33 IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, June 17, 2015 Third Annual SERI Conference

Snap Poll (Note: All Polls are Anonymous)

Do you believe renewable energy sources are too expensive to play a large role in a future

energy infrastructure?

Yes

No

34 IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, June 17, 2015 Third Annual SERI Conference

Snap Poll (Note: All Polls are Anonymous)

Do you believe there is enough renewable energy to supply a future 100% clean and

renewable energy infrastructure?

Yes

No

35 IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, June 17, 2015 Third Annual SERI Conference

Snap Poll (Note: All Polls are Anonymous)

Do you believe vested interests will make it too difficult for renewables to supply a 100%

future renewable energy infrastructure?

Yes

No

36 IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, June 17, 2015 Third Annual SERI Conference