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Impact of Tropical Deforestation on Impact of Tropical Deforestation on the Oxidizing Capacity of the the Oxidizing Capacity of the

AtmosphereAtmosphere

Impact of Tropical Deforestation on Impact of Tropical Deforestation on the Oxidizing Capacity of the the Oxidizing Capacity of the

AtmosphereAtmosphere

Laurens GanzeveldLaurens Ganzeveld11, Lex Bouwman, Lex Bouwman22, Bas Eickhout, Bas Eickhout22, Patrick Jöckel, Patrick Jöckel11, Jos Lelieveld, Jos Lelieveld11, , Swen MetzgerSwen Metzger11, Meryem Tanarhte, Meryem Tanarhte11, and the MESSy team, and the MESSy team11

11Max-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany Max-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany 22National Institute for Public Health and theEnvironmentNational Institute for Public Health and theEnvironment (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands. (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands.

Laurens GanzeveldLaurens Ganzeveld11, Lex Bouwman, Lex Bouwman22, Bas Eickhout, Bas Eickhout22, Patrick Jöckel, Patrick Jöckel11, Jos Lelieveld, Jos Lelieveld11, , Swen MetzgerSwen Metzger11, Meryem Tanarhte, Meryem Tanarhte11, and the MESSy team, and the MESSy team11

11Max-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany Max-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany 22National Institute for Public Health and theEnvironmentNational Institute for Public Health and theEnvironment (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands. (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands.

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The OH Radical: the Atmosphere‘s detergentThe OH Radical: the Atmosphere‘s detergent

Oxidizing Capacity of the AtmosphereOxidizing Capacity of the Atmosphere

OH HO2

recyclingsource

sink NMHC

CO, CH4, CH2O

CO2, H2O

CH2O

hν

H2O2

HO2

NO2

NOhν

NO2

O3 + hvO(1D) + H2O

Primary OH Formation

O3 + h → O2(1Δ) + O(1D)

O(1D) + M → O(3P) + M

O(3P) + O2 + M → O 3 + M

O(1D) + H2O → 2 OH

OH Recycling

HO2 + NO → OH +NO2 (high NOx)

HO2 + O3 → OH + 2O2 (low NOx)

urban (U.S.)

remoteagricultural

(U.S.)

Wet tropical forestMaritime

(pacific)

Courtesy: Franz Meixner, from: Chameides

LBA-EUSTACH 1

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*

Courtesy: Jos Lelieveld

Oxidizing Capacity of the AtmosphereOxidizing Capacity of the Atmosphere

Major influences on tropospheric OHMajor influences on tropospheric OHForcing Mechanism Response

NOx ↑ O3 formation, OH recycling OH ↑

H2O ↑ H2O + O(1D) → 2OH OH ↑

CH4 ↑ CH4 + OH → products OH ↓

CO ↑ CO + OH → products OH ↓

NMHC ↑ NMHC + OH → products OH ?

Clouds ↑ light scattering, multiphase chemistry OH ?

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Hypothesis:Hypothesis:

Deforestation will affect the atmospheric Deforestation will affect the atmospheric oxidizing efficiency through changes in oxidizing efficiency through changes in tracer, energy and water surface exchangestracer, energy and water surface exchanges

Oxidizing Capacity of the AtmosphereOxidizing Capacity of the Atmosphere

This change can only be assessed with This change can only be assessed with coupled chemistry-climate models that coupled chemistry-climate models that explicitly consider the dependence of explicitly consider the dependence of surface exchanges on land cover and land surface exchanges on land cover and land use properties use properties

urban (U.S.)

remoteagricultural

(U.S.)

Wet tropical forest

Maritime (pacific)

Future tropical forest?

Future tropical forest?

and the interactions between atmospheric and the interactions between atmospheric chemistry and the hydrological cycle, e.g., the chemistry and the hydrological cycle, e.g., the changes in photo-dissociation due to changes changes in photo-dissociation due to changes in cloud coverin cloud cover

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N emissions [kg N kmN emissions [kg N km-2-2 yr yr-1-1]: fertilizers]: fertilizers

Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Present-day versus FutureLand Cover and Land Use Changes: Present-day versus Future

Forest fraction [0 - 1]Forest fraction [0 - 1]

2100210011

1010Present-dayPresent-dayPresent-dayPresent-day11

404021002100

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ECHAM’s energy and HECHAM’s energy and H22O surface exchangesO surface exchanges

5 soil layers, T5 soil layers, Tsoilsoil

Sea ice

Bare soil

SeaWet skin surface

Snow/ice

z0

Soil moisture (WSoil moisture (Wss))

turbulenceturbulence

radiation, heatradiation, heat HH22OO

Dry deposition Dry deposition ∫∫(radiation, W(radiation, Wss , turb.) , turb.)

In-canopy interactions In-canopy interactions ∫∫(turb., chemistry)(turb., chemistry)

Soil-biogenic N emissions Soil-biogenic N emissions ∫∫(W(Wss, T, Tsoilsoil, fertil., ecosystem), fertil., ecosystem)

biogenic VOC emissions biogenic VOC emissions ∫∫(T(Tsurfsurf, radiation, ecosystem), radiation, ecosystem)

and reactive trace gas and aerosol exchangesand reactive trace gas and aerosol exchanges

ECHAM’s tracer, energy and water surface exchangesECHAM’s tracer, energy and water surface exchanges

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Forest PastureLAI [m2 m-2] ~ 6-7 1.5Canopy height [m] 15-30 0.5z0 [m] 1-2 0.05C5H8 emis. [μg C g-1 hr-1] 16 5NO emis. [ng N m-2 s-1] 2.6 0.36Cult. intensity [0-1] 0 0.2Fertil. use [ng N m-2 s-1] 0 13CRF [0-1] 0.2-0.3 0.7-0.8

Impact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes on Atmospheric Chemistry: SCM studyImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes on Atmospheric Chemistry: SCM study

deforestation

Ganzeveld, L., and J. LelieveldGanzeveld, L., and J. Lelieveld, , Impact of Amazonian deforestation on Impact of Amazonian deforestation on atmospheric chemistryatmospheric chemistry, , Geophys. Res. Lett., 31Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L06105, , L06105,

doi:10.1029/2003GL019205, 2004.doi:10.1029/2003GL019205, 2004.

deforestation

ΔOH ~ +100 %

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MModular odular EEarth arth SSubmodel ubmodel SySystem (MESSy) coupled to GCM ECHAM5stem (MESSy) coupled to GCM ECHAM5http://www.messy-interface.orghttp://www.messy-interface.org

MModular odular EEarth arth SSubmodel ubmodel SySystem (MESSy) coupled to GCM ECHAM5stem (MESSy) coupled to GCM ECHAM5http://www.messy-interface.orghttp://www.messy-interface.org

ECHAM5ECHAM5

Polar Stratospheric Cloudsmicro-physics and sedimentation

Polar Stratospheric Cloudsmicro-physics and sedimentation

Aerosol Physics (& chemistry) Thermodynamical aerosol

composition module and size-resolving dynamical module

Aerosol Physics (& chemistry) Thermodynamical aerosol

composition module and size-resolving dynamical module

14CO / Radonnatural atmospheric tracer, evaluation

of tropospheric OH. STE / PBL transport

14CO / Radonnatural atmospheric tracer, evaluation

of tropospheric OH. STE / PBL transport

Eulerian Transport Schemes Eulerian Transport Schemes

Lagrangian Transport SchemeLagrangian Transport Scheme

Natural and Anthropogenic Emissionsbiogenic surface emissions and anthropogenic emissions

Natural and Anthropogenic Emissionsbiogenic surface emissions and anthropogenic emissions

Gas-phase and Heterogeneous Chemistry

using Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP)

Gas-phase and Heterogeneous Chemistry

using Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP)

MBL Chemistryswitchable extension with chemistry scheme

MBL Chemistryswitchable extension with chemistry scheme

Photolysisfast on-line scheme

Photolysisfast on-line scheme

Diagnostic and Output(e.g., PBL and tropopause height)

Diagnostic and Output(e.g., PBL and tropopause height)

ScavengingBelow and in-cloud scavenging of

gases and aerosols

ScavengingBelow and in-cloud scavenging of

gases and aerosols

Dry Depositiondry deposition of gases and aerosols

Dry Depositiondry deposition of gases and aerosols

Convection & Tracer TransportConvection & Tracer Transport

Stratospheric Water VaporStratospheric Water Vapor

Lightning NOxLightning NOx

Coupled chemistry-GCMCoupled chemistry-GCM

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IMAGEIMAGE, 19 land cover Classes, 19 land cover Classes

Experiment Set-up: Scenario CompilationExperiment Set-up: Scenario Compilation

Experiments with MESSy-echam5: 1995-2050-2100 A2 land cover and Experiments with MESSy-echam5: 1995-2050-2100 A2 land cover and land use scenario’s of the IMAGE modelland use scenario’s of the IMAGE model

N emissions [kg N kmN emissions [kg N km-2-2 yr yr-1-1]: fertilizers]: fertilizersForest fraction [0 - 1]Forest fraction [0 - 1]

2100210011

1010Present-dayPresent-dayPresent-dayPresent-day11

404021002100Land cover/Land use param. Process

Forest fraction micro-met./dry dep.LAI " "Canopy height " "Roughness " "Foliar density biogenic VOC emis.C5H8 emis. factor " "LAD profile " "NO emis. factor biogenic NO emis.Cultivation. intensity " "Fertilizer. use " "

Land cover/Land use param. Process

Forest fraction micro-met./dry dep.LAI " "Canopy height " "Roughness " "Foliar density biogenic VOC emis.C5H8 emis. factor " "LAD profile " "NO emis. factor biogenic NO emis.Cultivation. intensity " "Fertilizer. use " "

Present-dayPresent-dayAgric. Land

Grassland

Regrowth forest

Ice

Tundra

Wooded tundra

Boreal forest

Cool conifer forest

Temp. mixed forest

Temp. dedic. forest

Warm mixed forest

Grassland/steppe

Hot desert

Scrubland

Savanna

Tropical woodland

Tropical forest

21002100Agric. Land

Grassland

Regrowth forest

Ice

Tundra

Wooded tundra

Boreal forest

Cool conifer forest

Temp. mixed forest

Temp. dedic. forest

Warm mixed forest

Grassland/steppe

Hot desert

Scrubland

Savanna

Tropical woodland

Tropical forest

MPI-CHEMIEImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: MeteorologyImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Meteorology

dTdTsurfsurf [ [ºKºK]]

22050 - 1995

-2.5

0

dNet surface radiation [%] dNet surface radiation [%]

2050 - 1995 20%

0%

-20%

dSoil Moisture [%]dSoil Moisture [%]2050 - 1995

-30%

0%

30%

dWet skin fraction [%]dWet skin fraction [%]2050 - 1995 100%

0%

-100%

MPI-CHEMIEImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Surface ExchangesImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Surface Exchanges

Biogenic Emissions and Dry DepositionBiogenic Emissions and Dry Deposition

change in Foliar Densitychange in Foliar Density

2050 - 1995 50%

-50%

0%

VdHNO3; 2050 - 1995 25%

-40%

0%

0%

60%

-60%

VdO3; 2050 - 199550%

0%

-100%

FNO; 2050-1995

FC5H8; 2050 - 1995 50%

0%

-150%

ΔFc5H8 ~ Δ biomass

ΔFNO ~ ΔCRF, Tsoil, ws, precip, fert.

ΔVdHNO3 ~ Δturbulence

ΔVdO3 ~ Δturb., Rstom, ws, wet skin fraction

MPI-CHEMIEImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Oxidizing capacityImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Oxidizing capacity

Oxidizing CapacityOxidizing Capacity

NOx; 2050 - 1995 60%

0%

-100%

C5H8; 2050 - 1995 90%

0%

-150%

100%

0%

-50%

OH; 2050 - 199515%

0%

-20%

O3; 2050 - 1995

ΔC5H8 ~ ΔFC5H8ΔNOx ~ ΔFNO, chemistry, dry deposition

ΔO3 ~ ΔC5H8, dry deposition

ΔO3 ~ ΔNOx

ΔOH ~ ΔC5H8

-

-

+

+

MPI-CHEMIEImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Oxidizing capacityImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Oxidizing capacity

Oxidizing CapacityOxidizing Capacity

100%

0%

-50%

OH; 2050 - 1995

OH; 2050 - 1995 70%

35%

0%

-50%

11

5

9

7

3

1

Hei

gh

t [k

m]

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Conclusion/OutlookConclusion/Outlook

Including more feedbacks in model experiments: Including more feedbacks in model experiments:

I.I. Using consistent anthropogenic emission Using consistent anthropogenic emission scenarios: scenarios: IMAGE land cover/use scenariosIMAGE land cover/use scenarios are consistent with are consistent with SRESSRES scenarios scenarios

II.II. Including aerosol-radiative forcing effectsIncluding aerosol-radiative forcing effectsIII.III. Coupling emissions/dry deposition to carbon Coupling emissions/dry deposition to carbon

cycle model (ECHAM5-JSBACH)cycle model (ECHAM5-JSBACH)IV.IV. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulationsCoupled ocean-atmosphere simulations

Consequently, we will perform longer integrations/transient simulations to study Consequently, we will perform longer integrations/transient simulations to study the significance of the climate change signal;the significance of the climate change signal;

1-year annual mean dT1-year annual mean dTsurfsurf

[[ºKºK]] 22050 - 1995

-2.5

0

Our study indicates that deforestation will generally result in an increase in the oxidizing Our study indicates that deforestation will generally result in an increase in the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere, largely reflecting the decreases in isoprene emissions capacity of the atmosphere, largely reflecting the decreases in isoprene emissions

It does not include for example the potential role of the natural and anthropogenic It does not include for example the potential role of the natural and anthropogenic emissions of oxygenated VOC’s for the OH productionemissions of oxygenated VOC’s for the OH production

However, the analysis only considers the impact of land-cover and land-use changes However, the analysis only considers the impact of land-cover and land-use changes on atmospheric chemistry, for a 1-year integration for 1995 and 2050on atmospheric chemistry, for a 1-year integration for 1995 and 2050

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Outlook: Process RepresentationOutlook: Process Representation

Model (a) mean annual NO flux (ngModel (a) mean annual NO flux (ng  NN  mm 22  ss 11), (b) mean annual soil), (b) mean annual soilnitrogen (NOnitrogen (NO

33 and NH and NH

44++ and sum) concentration ( and sum) concentration (gg  gg 11  dd 11).).

Impact of deforestation on soil-biogenic NOImpact of deforestation on soil-biogenic NOxx emis emis.; DayCent, .; DayCent,

Kirkman, Meixner et al., (submitted)Kirkman, Meixner et al., (submitted)

Introducing more mechanistic Introducing more mechanistic representation of soil-biogenic N emissionsrepresentation of soil-biogenic N emissions

Role of subgrid-scale land conversion: non-linear effects Role of subgrid-scale land conversion: non-linear effects on meteorology and atmospheric chemistry; on meteorology and atmospheric chemistry;

Single-Column Model, Meso-scale models, e.g., RAMSSingle-Column Model, Meso-scale models, e.g., RAMS70-80 km

echam5-T106 > 100 km

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MESSy – coupling chemistry etc. to GCMsMax-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germanyin collaboration withDLR Oberpfaffenhofen, GermanyMPI for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

Chemistry: R. Sander, A. Kerkweg, R. von Kuhlmann, B. Steil, R. von Glasow

Lagrangian Advection: C. Reithmeier, V. Grewe,G. Erhardt, R. Sausen, P. Jöckel, M. Traub

Aerosols: S. Metzger, P. Stier, A. Kerkweg,J. Wilson+, E.Vignati+, J. Feichter

Emission/Deposition: L. Ganzeveld, P. Stier,J. van Aardenne, Y. Balkanski+, M. Schulz+,W. Guelle+, V. Grewe, P. Jöckel, S. Metzger,G. J. Roelofs+

Polar stratospheric clouds: J. Buchholz,S. Meilinger, K. Carslaw

Photolysis: J. Landgraf, C. Brühl, P. Jöckel,R. Sander

Scavenging: H. Tost, L. Ganzeveld

Convective tracer transport: M. Lawrence, H. Tost,P. Jöckel, S. Brinkop, M. Ponater, C. Kurz

14CO, 222Rn, and passive tracer diagnostics:P. Jöckel

Tropopause diagnostics: P. Jöckel, M. TraubStratospheric H2O: C. Brühl, B Steil, P. JöckelTracer assimilation: L. Ganzeveld, P. JöckelFlexible data output: A. Rhodin, R. Sander,

P. Jöckel

Automatic rediscretization of input data: P. Jöckel

http://www.messy-interface.org

+external contribution, current maintainer/coordinator

... to be extended ...

more detailed references: see web-page

Scientific Coordination: Jos LelieveldTechnical Coordination: Patrick Jöckel & Rolf Sander

Contributions to the program code:

MPI-CHEMIEConclusions/Outlook: Scenario CompilationConclusions/Outlook: Scenario Compilation

How realistic are the IMAGE land cover and land use scenarios? How realistic are the IMAGE land cover and land use scenarios?

ComparisonComparison with with local/regionallocal/regional scale land cover and land use management scenarios scale land cover and land use management scenarios

LAI: IMAGE-2050 – IMAGE-1995 3.5

0

-2.5

LAI: IMAGE-1995 – Olson-1995 3.5

0

-2.5

Olson ’92Olson ’92, 72 ecosystems &, 72 ecosystems &NDVI data: annual cycle in NDVI data: annual cycle in biomassbiomass

IMAGEIMAGE, 19 land cover, 19 land coverclasses, 10-year intervalclasses, 10-year interval

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Laurens Ganzeveld:

Introduction: the oxidizing capacity is also often referred to as the clean(s)ing capacity since the oxidation of precursor gasses such as methane, CO and SO2 results in the production of more soluble and reactive reaction products which are more efficiently being removed by wet and dry deposition or prone to further chemical destruction. So a change in the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere will result in a change in the atmospheric lifetime of many precursors such as methane is therefore also relevant to climate change.

Laurens Ganzeveld:

Introduction: the oxidizing capacity is also often referred to as the clean(s)ing capacity since the oxidation of precursor gasses such as methane, CO and SO2 results in the production of more soluble and reactive reaction products which are more efficiently being removed by wet and dry deposition or prone to further chemical destruction. So a change in the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere will result in a change in the atmospheric lifetime of many precursors such as methane is therefore also relevant to climate change.