Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2014-2016 Kinh t v m Bi ging 27 Tng quan kinh t th gii David O. Dapice1Bin dch: Nguyn Qu Tm T T n ng g q qu ua an n k ki in nh h t t t th h g gi i i i ConferenceBoardlmtnhmccchuyngiakinhtvchuyngiadbochuynara nhngdbovccnnkinhtlnvccnvkinht.Theolgiicahtrongboco Trin vng Kinh t th gii 11/2014 nh sau: BocoTrinvngKinhtToncu2015caConferenceBoardaranhngdbo tng trng sn lng ca nn kinh t th gii trong ngn hn, trung hn v di hn, bao gm 11 khu vc chnh v nhng c tnh ring l i vi 33 nn kinh t pht trin v 22 nn kinh t mi ni trong nm 2015, 20152019, v 20202025. Bo co Trin vng Kinh t Ton cu c T chc Conference Board xut bn hng nm k t 2008. Bo co xem xt ng nngcaccyu t uvo sn xut (tit kim, u t v vic lm) v c im dn s ca mi nc. Cc d bo cn c theo m hnh hch ton tng trng c lng xuthtngtrngxttheonhngnggpcalaong,vnvnngsutchotngtrng GDP. Mc d tng trng lao ng c d boda trn thng tin nhn khu hc nh tui lao ng, tng trng vn v nng sut c c tnh trn c s mt lot nhng bin thin kh d gia sn lng thc t v tim nng. Bo co Trin vng Kinh t Ton cu ca Conference Board khc vi nhng d bo khc ch chng ti c cch tip cn gip xc nh nhng thay i c cu bn trong nn kinh t bng cch m rng cc d bo da trn m hnh hch ton tng trng, xem xt cc ng gp ca lao ng, vn v nng sut trong hn mt thp k. a s cc nh d bo ch tp trung vo mt trong hai nm ti, cn IMF th a ra trin vng ca nm nm. Conference Board a ra cc d bo 2015, 2015-2019 v 2020-2025 cho tng trng GDP thc. HdborngtngtrngGDPsvnkhngivonm2015sovi2014vtngtrng ton cu trong nhng nm cn li ca thp nin s l khong 3% mt nm, sau chm i. Bng bn di cho thy d bo ca h v tng trngGDP thc mi nm: (GDP theo gi th trng nm 2012 t WB). Tng trng GDP thc -> Thc tD bo Xu hng (ngn t $) Vng/quc gia2010-13201420152015-19 2020-20252012 GDP US2.2%2.2% 2.6%2.4% 1.9%$16.4 Europe0.9%1.4% 2.0% 2.1%1.5%$15.1 (Euro + UK) Japan1.8%0.9%1.1%1.4%1.1%$ 6.1 Tt c nn kinh t pt.1.8%1.9% 2.3%2.3% 1.8%$49.9 China8.8%7.3% 6.5%5.5%3.9%$ 7.7 India6.6%5.2% 5.5%5.5%5.0%$ 1.9 Other Asia5.2%4.4% 4.3%4.3%3.9% $ 2.4 Latin America3.6%1.5% 1.8%2.8%2.9%$ 5.3 Middle East3.3%3.0% 3.4%3.4%3.2%$ 1.4 Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2014-2016 Kinh t v m Bi ging 27 Tng quan kinh t th gii David O. Dapice2Bin dch: Nguyn Qu Tm Sub-Saharan Africa4.5%4.2%5.0% 5.0%5.3%$ 1.2 Russia/Central Asia4.1%0.8% 1.4% 2.1%1.7%$ 2.6 (gm mt s nc .u) Tt c nn KT mi ni6.2%4.8% 4.7%4.5%3.7%$21.9 Tng th gii3.7%3.2%3.4% 3.3%2.7%$71.7 Tho lun Phng php d phng ny c l cng tng t v tt hn hu ht cc phng php khc, nhng nhiuktqutngtrngcngchutcngcaccbinschnhtrcngnhkinht,cng ngh v c im dn s. Ai c th on c rng Quc hi M s gy p lc mnh ct gim thm ht khi m tht nghip vn cao? Hoc c t chi u t vo ngay c c s h tng ang haomncamnhkhitngtrngcahvcatonbchuutingnzerohaythmch m? Hoc Nga li c hnh ng ct gim nhp khu thc phm v y lm pht xu hn trc tnh hnh gi du xut khu gim v phng Ty p t cc bin php trng pht? Nhng hnh nghayphnngnykhcthlpmhnhvthngtoranhngcscchnhschkh on.D trong trng hp no, vn d m t nhng g mi xy ra hn l m t tng lai! T 2000 n 2010,ccnnkinhtphttrintng1,8%,gnvitngtrngkvngdihncah.Tng trng dn s cc nn kinh t giu tnh chung l thp hoc thp ch m (khng tnh nhp c), do iu ny cng gn vi tc tng trng thu nhp bnh qun u ngi. M nh c nhp c v phn no l tc tng t nhin cao hn, c k vng tng trng dn s trong thp nin ny l 0,8%, trong khi chu u ch l 0,1% v Nht l -0,3%! Ngay c nh vy, trin vng l gn nh khng i vi tng trng nhn chung tch cc nhng chm.Trinvngcaccncangphttrinthkhc.Htngtrng6,4%t2000n2010v 6,2% t 2010 n 2013, nhng ch yu v Trung Quc v n ang chm i, d tr cc nc ang pht trin s tng trng chm i cn 4,5% n 2020 v sau l 3,7%. y l s chm li ng k, nhng c l v nu n v Trung Quc gim tng trng t mc cao 8-11% ca thp nin trc, th nhu cu nguyn liu th s gim v nhiu nc ang pht trin c li t mc gi cao do chnh s tng trng thm dng nguyn liu trong qu kh tora. Cng c kh nng l chnh sch ni lng tin t bt thng ca cc ngn hng trung ng giu c s chm dt v iu nysphnnokhinlisutcaohn.Mtphnstngtrngmininhanhchnglnh vo ti chnh d di.Mtiukhccnnhlnucnhgitheotgihioithtrngthayvngangbng scmua,ccncgiuvnchimkhong70%GDPtoncu.Tuynhin,khiccnnkinht Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2014-2016 Kinh t v m Bi ging 27 Tng quan kinh t th gii David O. Dapice3Bin dch: Nguyn Qu Tm minitiptctngtrngnhanhhnthsbinthincahsctrngslnhntrong nhngthayitngtrngtoncu.Do,scbinnglnhntrongtngtrngGDP ton cu ni chung trong thi gian ti.Cui cng, tt nht nn xem nhng d phng ny nh l xu hng trung tm hn l kt cc kh d. Nhiu chuyn c th xy ra i vi mt nn kinh t, t dch bnh n lng thc hay thay i gi du, hoc xung t. Nhng iu ny kh on c v cn kh hn lp m hnh xt tc ng kinh t ca chng.Sau y l phn im li nhng nn kinh t ln: 1.M vn l nn kinh t ln nht th gii tnh theo t gi th trng mc d khng phi theo cn bng sc mua. S ging co chnh tr gia Tng thng v Quc hi dn n hot ng ngn sch thtchtgip gim mnh thm ht ca lin bang nhngcnglm chm tng trng kinh t v to nhiu l hng v c s h tng. Lm pht l thp bt k nhng t bm thanh khon bt thng ca ngn hng trung ng, hin nay va kt thc. (d vn t cc t mua li tri phiu n hn s mt phn c ti u t khi tri phiu n hn thay v rt vn hon ton; li sut gn zero s khng c nng ln cho n cui 2015). S bng n nng lng phi truyn thng lm gim thm ht thng mi, lm ng la mnh ln, v gim lm pht. Mc d t l tht nghip gim xung phm vi gn bnh thng (5,8%), tin lng kh tng theogi tr thc dc nhiu lao ng lm vic bn thi gian khi h mun c cng vic ton thi gian. Bt bnh ng thu nhp ang tr thnh mt vn chnh tr, nhng chin thng p o ca phe Cng ha trong t bu c quc hi cho thy c tri khng tin phe Dn ch trong vic gii quyt vn ny. Nh ang phchinhvntiudngsovithunhplthphnsoviccnmtrc.Tng trng nng sut khng c hiu thu o v tr tr nhng bt u c du hiu phc hitmthi.Nhnchung,trinvngltngtrngskhimtnkhong2,5%trong nhiu nm ti, nh vo gi du thp. iu ny c th chu ri ro tiu cc nu EU v Nht c kt qu km hn kvng, v h l nhng th trng xut khu ln. Nhng kh nng tch cc hn s l ci cch thu d kh xy ra, mt tha thun ngn sch lm tng chi tiu cho c s h tng, hoc s phc hi tt hn k vng cc th trng xut khu ln. 2.EU gn nh suy thoi khi tng trng hng nm di 1% (xem bo vit ca Economist: http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21633832-germanys-economy-getting-too-weak-pull-europe-out-its-crisis-sputtering-engine ) ngay c khi Ngn hng trung ng chu u tm ra cch ni lng ng k chnh sch tin t ca h, th nhngyu km cn li trong cc ngn hng v mc n cao km theo Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2014-2016 Kinh t v m Bi ging 27 Tng quan kinh t th gii David O. Dapice4Bin dch: Nguyn Qu Tm tngtrngdnsthpvlmphtrtthpcthgyranhiurcrihn.Ngayc Gio hong Francis gn y cng ni chu u ging nh b ngoi, khng cn sinh sn hochotbt.cstiptcdodvichnhschtikhanilnghnnhngvn khngbucphicnhngcicchccunghimtccnthit.ngeuroyu hn s tt cho xut khu v mt s nn kinh t min nam ang rt suy sp ang bt u tng trng tr li. Ginng lng thp hn sh tr mt phn. Tuy nhin, v Php u c nhng vn nghim trng nh n cao v khu vc t nhn yu km, trong khi h l cc nc ln. Anh i mt vi mt tng lai khng chc chn v c th tht s rt khi EU, mc d iu s gy thit hi cho tng trng kinh t ca h. Nhng yu km cn bao gm khng ch l t l sinh sn thp v lc lng lao ng ang t i, m cn l mt cu trc x hi khng phi lc no cng d dng tip nhn dn nhp c. a s cc nc ucthtnghiphaiconsvthtnghipgiitrchimnmtphnbahaylao ng tr. Nhng ngi tr ny ang mt thi gian v k nng lm vic nhng s cn n trong vi nm ti h tr cho lc lng dn s hu tr. Cc ng phi chnh tr cc hu edaccchnhschdavosngthunxhimangchtrngnha.Tng trng GDP nm sau c d bo l 2% nhng ri ro mt tri l c c s. 3.Nht ang i mt vi khng hong khi cc k hoch kinh t ca Th tng Abe khng c kt qu. Nht c dns anggim i, tng trngrtchm v ncht chng.Ngn hng trung ng Nht ha tin t ha mt lng ln tng n chnh ph, mc 227% GDP.(nrngtrongcngchnglhn130%GDPvthmhtnm2014l8,4% GDP).BOJangcngthm1%GDPmtthngvocstintbngcchmuatri phiu chnh ph, gp i lng tng ng m FED thc hin qua cc t mua m hin cngngng.Khithucnnglngimthmht,nnkinhti vosuythoi nghim trng v GDP thc ang thu hp tc 4-5% hng nm trong hai qu va qua. Vicctgimchitiuskhkhnvphnln chitiulivotinhutrchongi gi. S thu ca chnh ph s phi tng mt na t 28% GDP ln hn 40% GDP i vo qu o ngn sch bn vng. nh mc li sut tri phiu s b gim v ng Abe va ku gibuc.NgaycngYenyucngkhnggipcnhiuchoxutkhuvphn ln hot ng sn xut cng nghip di ra hi ngoi. Khi chnh sch tin t v ti kha khng t ra c nhiu tc ng, th ch c nhng ci cch c cu quyt lit mi gip c, nhngkhcthtrinkhai.Phngnkhcltuynbvn,liucthkhng trnh khi nu li sut tng r rt. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2014-2016 Kinh t v m Bi ging 27 Tng quan kinh t th gii David O. Dapice5Bin dch: Nguyn Qu Tm 4.Nga hin l mt m hn n, khi hai tr ct m rng kinh t l gi xut khu nng lng cao v chi tiu tiu dng ang o chiu. Chnh ph cnh bo kh nng suy thoi nm 2015 k t khi d bo ca Conference Board c cng b. C th xem phn tch v cc vn ny ti: http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21633816-more-decade-oil-income-and-consumer-spending-have-delivered-growth-vladimir-putinsVi gi du ri xung $70 mt thng i vi du th Brent, vn trc l $115 hi u nm, nn kinh t ph thuc du la gp nguy c ngn sch bt cn i nghim trng vi th trng tri phiu ni ayu km. (c ngha l khngc vay mn bn ngoi, thm ht s c tc ng gy lm pht). Gi 100 la mt thng l cn thit cn bng ngn sch 2014; ngay c khi ngn sch c iu chnh vi mc 80 la mt thng vo nm 2015.ascccngtycn lahoceurophitr(130tvocui 2015)vas ngn hng nc ngoi v th trng vn ngng khng cho vay do gi du, theo l cuc khng hong Ukraine v h ly trng pht. Trc s sp ca ng rp hn 40% so vi la trong nm nay, lm pht ang gia tng ln hai con s v vic thu tin cng tr n l rt kh. Dng vn ra hn 2 t la mt tun v tng trng ang chm i l vn ngay c trc cuc khng hong Ukraine v gim gi du, kh nng thu hp 1-2% nm 2015 rt c th xy ra vi gi du hin nay. Mc d tng d tr ngoi hi vn l 370tla,phnlnbrngbucvonhngutdihnngngvphichuyn thnh tin mt. Cc mi quan h ang xung dc vi EU buc Nga phi bn kh t v du theo gi mc c cho Trung Quc v cc nc Trung ng. Hn na, s di c ca lao ngtrvctrnhanglmgimlclnglaongtonngsuttnglai(n nay gn nh l cn i nh nhp c t Trung , t ra l theo con s). Theo , t l sinh sn thp c ngha l dn s tui lao ng s gim gn 1% nm. Khi b ngt khi vn, cng ngh v b quyt phng ty, Nga s kh c th duy tr sn lng du v kh t t cc m ang cn kit. Quyt nh da trn nn tng chnh tr ngn cmnhp khu thc phm phng ty lm cho mi vic t hi hn, mc d vn c hng vn chuyn t nc th ba vi chi phcao hn. Nhn chung, nn kinh t Nga tht bi trong vic a dng ha trong hai thp ningi du cao vgi ygi du rt mnh,ch ngha t bn thn hu v s phiu lu chnh tr ang to ra mt thch thc to ln. 5.Nn kinh t Trung Quc chm li vo khong 7% nm 2014 nhng phn ln tng trng gn y l da vo t l u t/GDP cc k cao (54% nm 2013), phn nh tnh trng c s h tng v nh c chnh thc h tr m theo nh gi ca cc nh phn tch ca chnh ph Trung Quc l phung ph hoc y tham nhng. Mt nghin cu gn y ca Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2014-2016 Kinh t v m Bi ging 27 Tng quan kinh t th gii David O. Dapice6Bin dch: Nguyn Qu Tm ybanCicchvPhttrinQucgianhnthyrngkt2008,gn7ngntla hoc 42 ngn t NDT u t l khng hiu qu! Phn ln nhng khon u t khng l nyldavovayn.Nhngtctgimlisutgnychothyngnhngtrung ngTrungQucangquantmnkhnngnnkinhtmtquntnhkhiccngn hng ang xoay x vi n xu. Nu tht s mt na khon u t gn y l phung ph (nghin cu ny cng b ch trch) th d bo tng trng 2015 mc 6,5% c th l lc quan1, d rng lun c kh nng quay tr li m hnh tng trng da vo u t cch lm m theo mt nh quan st Trung Quc l nh ung nc mn. V s chuyn dch lao ng t khu vc nng thn nng sut thp sang vic lm th nng sut cao hu nh hon tt, v v tng trng lc lng lao ng nhn chung ang chuyn thnh m, nn ch c thm dng vn v nng sut mi c th thc y tng trng tng lai, d rng gi du v hng nguyn liu khc thp hnc thgip ci thin khim tn.Trc hn hp u t/GDP gia tng vi tng trng gim, y chnh l bng chng cho thy nng sut cautanggimi.Kthpvitngtrngxutkhuchmivmcnang tng ln i vi nhiu doanh nghip, cu hi quan trng l tng trng s chm i nhanh nmcno.ylcuhiquantrngvcqunhiuncphthucvonhucu nguynliuthcaTrungQuc.ConferenceBoarddbotngtrngGDP5,5%khi cnichothpninnyvthphn4%sau.iunyphnnhvicutlm gim nhim v gim thiu ht nc v tm kim nhiu ngun tng trng bn vng hn thay v tng trng da vo xut khu v u t ca nhng thp nin trc y.6.Nn kinh t n c k vng tng t 5-5,5% nm nay ln hn 6%trong nm 2014 theo nhiu ngun thng tin khc nhau mc d t chc Conference Board ch d bo l 5,5%. Th tng mi lngi thn thin vigii doanh nghip v scgngctgim thtc,gimphungphtrongnhiuchngtrnhtrcp(ngtactgimtrcp nhinliu)vcithincshtng.Mcdnnkinhtnchtngngvi Canada tnh theo tgi th trng,c kh nng h c th duy tr tng trng kh nhanh trongtrunghnnuThtngModicththchinttcckhochcamnh.Tuy nhin, c s h tng v thm ht nng lng vn ln v ch ngha bo th x hi to ra lc lng lao ng nng thn ng o nhng thiu trnh v iu ny s phi thay i.

1 Ngay c khi tng trng c bo co mc 7.3% l ng ng theo mt s nh phn tch. S liu nhp khu gn y cho thy c gim st trong gi tr nhp khu bt k c tch tr du, v nhu cu in tng ch 4%. Mc d iu ny phn nh kh nng bo tn nng lng, cc kin khc cho rng tng trng tht s thp hn bo co. Thng thng, in s tng nhanh hn GDP. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2014-2016 Kinh t v m Bi ging 27 Tng quan kinh t th gii David O. Dapice7Bin dch: Nguyn Qu Tm 7.MLatinclitsbngnginguynliuthtrongthpninqua,nhnghin ang chm dn khi gi mm i. Brazil, Venezuela v Argentina hoc gn nh suy thoi, cho thy gi nguyn liu th thp hn v qun l kinh t v m sai lm. Mexico, l nn kinh t Latin ln, gn kt nhiu hn vi nn kinh t M v c kh nng tng tc trong nm 2015 ln gn 4%, v ton b khu vc c k vng s c kt qu kh quan hn mt cht so vi tng trng 1,5% ca 2014. 8.ChuPhicnSaharacquimnhxttheoGDPgithtrng(3/5quimca) nhngcithinmtlnnanhvoginguynliutthn,nhutcaTrung Qucvphnnonhqunlkinhttthn.TuynhincmEbola,xungtvgi nguynliuththpsvnctcngtiucc,nhngckhnngtngtrngGDP vn mc 4-5% ca nhng nm gn y. 9.Trung ng s gnh chu thit hi do xung t tip din v hng trm t la tht thu do gi du gim, nhng mt tha thun gn y gia chnh ph Iraq vi ngi Kurd s y mnh doanh s du v c Th Nh K v Ai cp u c th ci thin, khi h l cc nc nhp khu nhin liu rng. GDP ca h theo gi th trng l nhnh hn so vi chu Phi cn Sahara, do s khng c tc ng ln ln tng trng ton cu.Tmli,cnhngdngchychuyndchanxenkhinchovicdbokhtntrnnkh khn. Dn s gi i, chnh sch m rng tin t bt thng trc tnh trng n qu mc tip din, cc chnh sch ti kha kh tin liu v nhng c sc bt ng nh gi du, cc t trng pht v dch bnh Ebola khin cho ta khng th bit chc chn iu g xy ra k tip. iu ny bn thn n cng c tc ng km hm i vi u t. Thay v t p lc nng n ln im c lng c th,skhnngoanhnnutodngcslinhhotvvngvngtronghotngqunl doanh nghip v chnh sch t nc, khi cc bin c xy ra th nhng phn ng s tc thi v ph hp.