MR1 - PESAPR2010- MR on Presidential and VP Preferences (Final) 29 Apr 2010

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MEDIARELEASE(April 29, 2010)

FROM: Prof. Ronald D. Holmes

President and Managing Fellow

Pulse Asia, Inc.

RE: Pulse Asias April 2010

Pre-election Survey for National Elective Positions

In keeping with our academic nature, Pulse Asia disseminates to the public somefindings from its April 2010 Pre-Election national survey.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from April 23 to 25, 2010 using face-to-face

interviews. Key developments in April 2010 include the following: (1) defections from

the Lakas-Kampi Christian Muslim Democrats (CMD) mostly to the Nacionalista Party(NP) and the Liberal Party (LP); (2) election-related issues such as the purchase of

ultraviolet lamps (UV) because the UV readers of the Precinct Count Optical Scan

(PCOS) machines were unable to read the UV markings on the ballots, the scrapping of

the P 700 million contract for the purchase of ballot secrecy folders, and the re-bidding ofthe contract for the purchase of indelible ink; (3) completion of the printing of ballots for

the May 2010 elections; (4) various incidents of election-related violence across thecountry; (5) Senator Francis G. Escuderos endorsement of Senator Benigno Simeon C.Aquino III for president and Makati City Mayor Jejomar C. Binay for vice-president; (6)

accusations made by former President Joseph E. Estrada and Senate President Juan Ponce

Enrile against Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. that while serving as Senate President in2007, Senator Villar used his position to pressure the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) to

decide in his favor on a matter concerning the public offering of his real estate companys

shares; (7) Senator Richard J. Gordons filing of charges against two survey groups; (8)


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petitions from various sectors for a parallel manual count of votes; (9) the SupremeCourts final ruling allowing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to appoint the next

chief justice (but not the next Sandiganbayan Justice); (10) calls for the resignation and

disbarment of Department of Justice (DOJ) Acting Secretary Alberto Agra following hisdecision to clear two key suspects in the Maguindanao massacre; and (11) increase in

power rates despite rotating brownouts in Metro Manila and other parts of the country.

For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia made use of a sample ballot,

measuring 8.5 x 26, that is a facsimile of the COMELEC official ballot. Respondents

were asked to indicate their preference on the ballot based on the instructions written

therein.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 registered voters 18 years old

and above, Pulse Asias nationwide survey has a 2% error margin at the 95%confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey

have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: 7% for Metro Manila, 3%

for the rest of Luzon and 5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face fieldinterviews for this project were conducted from April 23 to 25, 2010. (Those interested

in further technical details concerning the surveys questionnaires and sampling design

may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-testedquestions actually used.)

Pulse Asias pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and

conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. Inkeeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group

influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its own

without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse

Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia ChiefResearch Fellow at 09189436816.


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Pulse Asias February 2010 Pre-Election Survey

Voter Preferences for National Positions

April 29, 2010

Senator Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III continues to lead the presidential race (39%)

With almost four in ten Filipino registered voters (39%) supporting hispresidential bid, Senator Aquino remains the leading presidential contender in the May

2010 elections. Tied for second place with an overall voter preference of 20% are former

President Joseph M. Estrada Ejercito and Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. The other

presidential hopefuls have the support of at most 7% of registered voters. Less than onein ten registered voters (9%) does not support any presidential candidate. (See Table 1,

Distribution of Presidential Preferences by Area and Socioeconomic Class ).

Table 1

FIRST CHOICE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCEApril 23 - 25, 2010 / Philippines

(Column Percent)

Base: Total Registered Voters, 100%

If the coming 2010 election were LOCATION CLASS

held today, whom would you vote for as BAL

PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINES? RP NCR LUZ VIS MIN ABC D E

AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. "Noynoy" 39 39 37 47 36 45 39 37

ESTRADA EJERCITO, Joseph M. "Erap" 20 19 18 11 34 7 21 24

VILLAR, Manuel Jr. B. "Manny" 20 15 21 23 16 16 19 22

TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. "Gibo" 7 7 6 11 6 12 7 6

VILLANUEVA, Eduardo C. "Bro. Eddie" 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 2

GORDON, Richard J. "Dick" 2 5 2 0 1 4 2 0

ACOSTA, Vetallano S. "Dodong" 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1

PERLAS, Jesus Nicanor P. "Nick" 0.3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

DE LOS REYES, John Carlos G. "JC" 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MADRIGAL, Jamby AS. "Jamby" 0.1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

None / Refused / Undecided 9 11 12 6 3 12 8 8

Q1. Kung ang darating na eleksyon sa Mayo 2010 ay gaganapin ngayon, sino po ang inyong

iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE NG PILIPINAS?

Senator Aquino leads the other presidential candidates in the rest of Luzon (37%),Metro Manila (39%), and the Visayas (47%), as well as all socio-economic classes (37%

to 45%). In Mindanao, nearly the same percentages of registered voters support either

Senator Aquino or former President Estrada (36% versus 34%). (See Table 1,

Distribution of Presidential Preferences by Area and Socioeconomic Class ).

Marginal gains in electoral support are enjoyed by Senator Aquino and formerPresident Estrada between March and April 2010 (+2 percentage points). However, a

significant decline in voter preference is experienced by Senator Villar during this period

(-5 percentage points). The other presidential candidates register nominal/no changes intheir respective voter preferences between March and April 2010. (See Table 2

Comparative Presidential Preference, March 2010 April 2010)


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Table 2

COMPARATIVE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCEMarch and April 2010 / Philippines

(In Percent)

First Choice

Mar10 Apr10

(10 names) (10 names)

AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III "Noynoy" C. 37 39 + 2

ESTRADA EJERCITO, Joseph "Erap" M. 18 20 + 2

VILLAR, Manuel Jr. "Manny" B. 25 20 - 5

TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. "Gibo" C. 7 7 0

VILLANUEVA, Eduardo "Bro. Eddie" C. 2 3 + 1

GORDON, Richard "Dick" J. 2 2 0

ACOSTA, Vetallano "Dodong" S. 0.1 1 +0.9PERLAS, Jesus Nicanor "Nick" P. 0.3 0.3 0

DE LOS REYES, John Carlos "JC" G. 0.2 0.2 0

MADRIGAL, Jamby "Jamby" AS. 0.1 0.1 0

None / Refused / Undecided 9 9 0

Note: *Change = Figures of April 2010 minus Figures of March 2010.

Change*

Apr10 -

Presidential Preference Mar10

The vice-presidential race is now between Senator Manuel A. Roxas II and Makati

City Mayor Jejomar C. Binay (37% versus 28%)

Despite a 6-percentage point decline in his overall voter preference during the

period March to April 2010, Senator Roxas still has the lead in the vice-presidential racewith 37% of registered voters supporting his candidacy. However, the 20-percentage

point lead enjoyed by the latter over Senator Loren B. Legarda in March 2010 (43%

versus 23%) has now been reduced to a 9-percentage point lead over Makati City Mayor

Binay (37% versus 28%). Riding on a 9-percentage point gain in electoral support, theMakati City Mayor now finds himself in second place in the vice-presidential race. On

the other hand, Senator Legarda, who is now ranked third, is supported by 20% of

registered voters slightly lower than her March 2010 voter preference (23%). The other

vice-presidential candidates register voter preferences of at most 3% while 9% ofregistered voters do not have a preferred candidate for vice-president. (See Table 3 Vice

Presidential Voter Preference)


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Table 3FIRST CHOICE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE

April 23 - 25, 2010 / Philippines

Base: Total Registered Voters, 100%

If the coming 2010 election were held today, LOCATION CLASS

whom would you vote for as BAL

VICE-PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINES? RP NCR LUZ VIS MIN ABC D E

ROXAS, Manuel II Mar A. 37 34 34 44 38 55 36 32

BINAY, Jejomar Jojo C. 28 38 29 21 27 13 30 27

LEGARDA, Loren B. 20 10 21 20 24 9 20 24

FERNANDO, Bayani BF F. 3 6 3 3 3 5 2 4

MANZANO, Eduardo Edu B. 3 0 1 4 4 2 2 4

YASAY, Perfecto Kidlat R. 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

SONZA, Jose Jay Sonza Y. 0.3 0 0 1 0 1 0 0

CHIPECO, Dominador Jr. Jun F. 0.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

None / Refused / Undecided 9 11 12 6 3 15 8 8

Q1. Kung ang darating na eleksyon sa Mayo 2010 ay gaganapin ngayon, sino po ang inyong iboboto bilang BISE-PRESIDENTE NG PILIPINAS?

(SHOW SAMPLE BALLOT AND LIST OF CANDIDATES) . Ito po ay sample ballot lamang na ginagamit sa survey na ito. Paki basa po

ang instruksyon sa sample ballot bago kayo bumoto. Pagkatapos po ninyong bumoto, pakibalik po sa akin ang inyong sample ballot.

(In Percent)

Across geographic areas, Senator Roxas is the leading candidate in Mindanao(38%) and the Visayas (44%). Practically the same voter preferences are recorded by

Senator Roxas and Makati City Mayor Binay in Metro Manila (34% versus 38%) and the

rest of Luzon (34% versus 29%). Meanwhile, a small majority of those in Class ABC

(55%) favors Senator Roxas over the other vice-presidential bets while almost the samepercentages of those in Class D support either Senator Roxas or Makati City Mayor

Binay (36% versus 30%). Three candidates have the support of about the samepercentages of those in Class E Senator Roxas (32%), Makati City Mayor Binay (27%),

and Senator Legarda (24%). (See Table 4Comparative Vice Presidential Preference)


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Table 4

COMPARATIVE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCEMarch and April 2010 / Philippines

(In Percent)

First ChoiceMar10 Apr10

(8 names) (8 names)

ROXAS, Manuel II Mar A. 43 37 - 6

BINAY, Jejomar Jojo 19 28 + 9

LEGARDA, Loren 23 20 - 3

FERNANDO, Bayani BF 3 3 0

MANZANO, Eduardo Edu B. 2 3 + 1

YASAY, Perfecto Kidlat R. 1 1 0

SONZA, Jose Jay Sonza Y. 0.5 0.3 - 0.2

CHIPECO, Dominador Jr. Jun F. 0.1 0.05 - 0.05

None / Refused / Undecided 9 9 0

Note: *Change = Figures of April 2010 minus Figures of March 2010.

Change*Apr10 -

Vice-Presidential Preference Mar10

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MR1 - PESAPR2010- MR on Presidential and VP Preferences (Final) 29 Apr 2010