MR2 - PESFEB2010- MR on Senatorial Preferences (Final) 09 March 2010

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MEDIARELEASE(March 9, 2010)

FROM: Dr. Ana Maria L. Tabunda

Chief Research Fellow

Pulse Asia, Inc.

RE: Pulse Asias February 2010

Pre-election Survey for the Senatorial Elections

In keeping with our academic nature, Pulse Asia disseminates to the public somefindings from its February 2010 Pre-Election national survey.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from February 21 to 25, 2010 using face-to-

face interviews. Several developments dominated the news headlines in February 2010.

Among these are the: (1) speech delivered by Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. before hiscolleagues wherein he reiterated his innocence in connection with the C-5 road extension

project controversy and the failure of the senators to vote on the report of the Senate

Committee of the Whole seeking to censure Senator Villar; (2) Senator Panfilo M.

Lacsons departure from the country days prior to the issuance of a warrant of arrest forhim arising from his alleged involvement in the Dacer-Corbito double-murder case; (3)

various problems related to the May 2010 elections such as the delay in the printing ofballots and delivery of PCOS machines, the possibility of cellphone jammers disruptingthe transmission of election results, and the lack of telecommunications facilities in

certain provinces; (4) official start of the campaign period for national positions; (5)

COMELECs decision to unseat Pampanga Governor Ed Panlilio; (6) Supreme Courtsdismissal of a petition to nullify the poll automation deal between the COMELEC and

Smartmatic-TIM; (7) plans of Lakas-Kampi CMD to field President Gloria Macapagal-

Arroyo as its bet for House Speaker in the 15th

Congress; (8) resignation of appointed


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government officials running in the May 2010 polls; (9) continuing selection process forthe next Supreme Court Chief Justice; (10) arrest of 43 health workers who were tagged

by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) as members of the New Peoples Army

(NPA); (11) onset of the El Nio phenomenon which has already caused crop damageamounting to P 3.7 billion; (12) increase in power rates and fluctuations in oil prices; and

(13) occurrence of rotating brownouts in different parts of the country and the proposal togrant President Arroyo emergency powers to deal with the energy crisis.

For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia made use of a sample ballot,

measuring 8.5 x 26, that is a facsimile of the COMELEC official ballot. Respondents

were asked to indicate their preference on the ballot based on the instructions writtentherein.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years

old and above, Pulse Asias nationwide survey has a 2% error margin at the 95%

confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey

have the following error margins at 95% confidence level:

6% for Metro Manila,

4%for the rest of Luzon and 5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face fieldinterviews for this project were conducted from February 21 to 25, 2010. (Those

interested in further technical details concerning the surveys questionnaires andsampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of

the pre-tested questions actually used.)

Pulse Asias pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design andconduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In

keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group

influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its own

without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, PulseAsia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief

Research Fellow at 09189436816.


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Pulse Asias February 2010 Pre-Election Survey:

Senatorial Preferences for the May 2010 Elections

March 9, 2010

Fourteen candidates lead the contest for 12 senatorial seats in this election

If the May 2010 elections were held during the survey period, 14 senatorialcandidates would have a statistical chance of gaining a seat in the Philippine Senate.

Three incumbent senators seeking re-election, Sen. Ramon Kap/Bong Revilla Jr., Sen.

Jinggoy E. Estrada, and Sen. Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago, are statistically tied for first

place. Sen. Revillas overall voter preference of 53.6% translates to a statistical rankingof 1st to 3rd place, which he shares with Senator Estrada (52.6%). Sen. Defensor-Santiago

(49.4%) also has a chance at the top slot, as she ranks 1st to 5th. Not far behind her is

another re-electionist senator, Senator Pilar Juliana Pia S. Cayetano (45.4%), who isranked 3rd to 6th, a statistical ranking she in turn shares with former Senate President

Franklin M. Drilon (45%). In sixth place is incumbent Senate President Juan Ponce

Enrile (43.8%) with a statistical ranking of 4

th

to 6

th

. (See Table 1SenatorialPreferences)

Trailing the Senate President by at least 10 percentage points, former Senator

Vicente Tito C. Sotto III (33.2%), former senator and former National Economic andDevelopment Authority (NEDA) Director General Ralph G. Recto (33.1%), former

Senator Sergio Serge Osmea III (29.1%), Ilocos Norte Representative Ferdinand

Bongbong Marcos Jr. (28.2%), re-electionist Senator Manuel Lito Lapid (25.8%),Bukidnon Representative Teofisto TG Guingona III (24.3%), businessman Jose Joey

De Venecia III (23.5%) and Muntinlupa Representative Rozzano Rufino Ruffy Biazon(22.7%) complete the list of likely senatorial winners. Of these candidates, former

Senators Sotto, Recto and Osmea and Rep. Marcos would have joined the winning

circle of 12 senators if the elections were held at the time of the survey. Their poorestpossible showing, statistically speaking, is 9th place for the first two former senators, 11th

for former Sen. Osmea and 12th for Rep. Marcos. On the other hand, the senatorial bids

of Sen. Lapid, Rep. Guingona, Mr. de Venecia and Rep. Biazon are more vulnerable asthey could land outside of the winning circle, their worst statistical ranking being in the

range of 14th to 16th. (See Table 1Senatorial Preferences)

With less than three months to go before the May 2010 elections, 8.3% ofregistered voters do not express electoral support for any senatorial candidate, refuse to

name their senatorial preferences or have yet to decide on the candidates they will vote

for. Meanwhile, registered voters are naming a mean of seven and a median of eight (outof a maximum of 12) senatorial candidates. These figures are comparable to the figures

obtained in the February 28 March 5, 2007 and the February 16-20, 2004 pre-election

surveys of Pulse Asia, both of which had the mean and median at seven candidates. (See

Table 1Senatorial Preferences)


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Table 12010 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

February 21 - 25, 2010 / Philippines(Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)

Base: Total Registered Voters, 100%

Party Aware Voting For Rank

BONG REVILLA, Ramon Jr. "Kap" B. LAKAS 96 53.6 1-3ESTRADA, Jinggoy E. PMP 96 52.6 1-3DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO, Miriam P. PRP 96 49.4 1-5CAYETANO, Pilar Juliana "Pia" S. NP 81 45.4 3-6DRILON, Franklin "Frank" M. LP 93 45.0 3-6

ENRILE, Juan Ponce "JPE" PMP 93 43.8 4-6SOTTO, Vicente III "Tito" C. NPC 94 33.2 7-9RECTO, Ralph G. LP 93 33.1 7-9OSMEA, Sergio III "Serge" R. Ind 82 29.1 7-11MARCOS, Ferdinand Jr. "Bongbong" R. KBL 88 28.2 9-12

LAPID, Manuel "Lito" M. LAKAS 91 25.8 9-14GUINGONA, Teofisto III "TG" D. LP 74 24.3 10-14DE VENECIA, Jose III "Joey" P. PMP 82 23.5 11-15BIAZON, Rozzano Rufino "Ruffy" B. LP 52 22.7 11-16PIMENTEL, Gwendolyn "Gwen" D. PDP-L 41 19.9 13-17

REMULLA, Gilbert Cesar "Gilbert" C. NP 49 19.4 14-17HONTIVEROS-BARAQUEL, LP 41 16.8 15-18

Ana Theresia "Risa Hontiveros" H.ROCO, Sonia "Son" M. LP 51 14.8 17-20OSMEA, Emilio Mario "Promdi" R. --- 34 12.2 18-24TATAD, Francisco "Kit" S. GAD 55 12.0 18-24

LOZADA, Jose Apolinario Jr. "Jun Lozada" L. PMP 53 11.4 19-25

MITRA, Ramon "Mon-Mon" B. NP 50 11.4 19-25LANGIT, Rey M. LAKAS 63 10.9 19-26LIM, Danilo "General Danny" D. Ind 34 10.4 19-26QUERUBIN, Ariel "Marines" O. NP 28 8.8 21-29

LACSON, Alexander "Pinoy" L. LP 29 8.2 23-29OCAMPO, Saturnino "Satur" C. BM 39 7.5 25-30MAZA, Liza "Liza Masa ng Gabriela" L. Ind 28 7.3 25-30PAPIN, Imelda A. KBL 86 6.6 25-31TAMANO, Adel A. NP 25 5.4 27-35

Q1. Kung ang darating na eleksyon sa Mayo 2010 ay gaganapin ngayon, sino po ang inyong iboboto bilang mga Senador? (SHOW SAMPLE

BALLOT AND LIST OF CANDIDATES). Ito po ay sample ballot lamang na ginagamit sa survey na ito. Paki basa po ang instruksyon

sa sample ballot bago kayo bumoto. Pagkatapos po ninyong bumoto, pakibalik po sa akin ang inyong sample ballot.

Q46. May nabasa o narinig na ba kayo ng kahit na ano tungkol sa mga sumusunod?

Legend:

BM- Bayan Muna LP- Liberal Party

BP- Bangon Pilipinas Party NP- Nacionalista Party

GAD- Grand Alliance For Democracy NPC- Nationalist People's Coalition

Ind- Independent PDP-L- PDP-Laban

KAP- Ang Kapatiran Party PMP- Pwersa Ng Masang Pilipino

KBL- Kilusang Bagong Lipunan PRP- People's Reform Party

LAKAS- Lakas-Kampi CMD Party

Page 1 of 2


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Table 12010 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

February 21 - 25, 2010 / Philippines(Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)

Base: Total Registered Voters, 100%

Party Aware Voting For Rank

BELLO, Silvestre III "Bebot" H. LAKAS 17 4.5 29-39VILLANUEVA, Hector "Ka Hector" L. KBL 12 4.4 30-39ACOSTA, Nereus Jr. "Neric" O. LP 17 3.9 30-43OPLE, Susan "Toots" V. NP 28 3.8 30-44BAUTISTA, J.V. Larion PMP 7 3.6 30-44

BAUTISTA, Martin "Dr. Balikbayan" D. LP 6 3.5 31-44LAMBINO, Raul L. LAKAS 12 3.2 31-47OCAMPO, Ramoncito "Monching" P. BP 10 3.2 31-47ALBANI, Shariff Ibrahim "Shariff" H. KBL 5 2.9 31-50PALPARAN, Jovito Jr. "Jovi" S. Ind 25 2.7 33-50

TAMAYO, Reginald "Regie" B. KAP 8 2.7 33-50GUICO, Ramon Jr. "Monching" N. LAKAS 13 2.6 33-52PLAZA, Rodolfo Rodrigo "Ompong" G. NPC 13 2.3 33-54ESPINOSA, NANETTE "Ate Nanette" M. Ind 10 2.2 34-56ALONTO, Zafrullah "Noldy" M. BP 4 2.0 37-56

SISON, Adrian O. KAP 8 2.0 37-56INOCENCIO, Ma. Katherine BP 11 1.8 37-57

Luningning "Kata" R.PAREDES, Zosimo Jesus II "Jess" M. KAP 7 1.6 39-61LAO, Yasmin "Yas" B. LP 4 1.5 39-61TINSAY, Alexander "Alex Tinsay" B. BP 8 1.5 39-61

CAUNAN, Henry B. PDP-L 4 1.4 42-61

DAVID, Rizalito "Lito" Y. KAP 5 1.4 42-61NIKABULIN, Adz "Count Habib" G. Ind 2 1.3 43-61MAAMBONG, Regalado "Dodong" E. KBL 5 1.2 43-61IMBONG, Jo Aurea "Ate Jo" M. KAP 3 1.0 44-61

TARRAZONA, Hector "Tarzan" M. KAP 3 1.0 44-61RIOZA-PLAZO, Maria Gracia "Grace" DV. KAP 3 0.9 47-61LOOD, Alma A. KBL 2 0.7 48-61PRINCESA, Reynaldo "Prince" R. BP 5 0.6 48-61VALDEHUESA, Manuel Jr. "Manny" E. KAP 2 0.6 48-61VIRGINES, Israel "Dr. Israel" N. BP 2 0.6 48-61

None / Refused / Undecided --- --- 8.3 ---

Q1. Kung ang darating na eleksyon sa Mayo 2010 ay gaganapin ngayon, sino po ang inyong iboboto bilang mga Senador? (SHOW SAMPLE

BALLOT AND LIST OF CANDIDATES). Ito po ay sample ballot lamang na ginagamit sa survey na ito. Paki basa po ang instruksyonsa sample ballot bago kayo bumoto. Pagkatapos po ninyong bumoto, pakibalik po sa akin ang inyong sample ballot.

Q46. May nabasa o narinig na ba kayo ng kahit na ano tungkol sa mga sumusunod?

Legend:

BM- Bayan Muna LP- Liberal Party

BP- Bangon Pilipinas Party NP- Nacionalista Party

GAD- Grand Alliance For Democracy NPC- Nationalist People's Coalition

Ind- Independent PDP-L- PDP-Laban

KAP- Ang Kapatiran Party PMP- Pwersa Ng Masang Pilipino

KBL- Kilusang Bagong Lipunan PRP- People's Reform Party

LAKAS- Lakas-Kampi CMD Party

Page 2 of 2


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Among the probable winners, Sen. Defensor-Santiago registers the biggestimprovement in voter support (+8.2 percentage points) during the approximately one-

month period between the January and February 2010 surveys. Other candidates

registering significant improvements in voter preferences are independent candidate Atty.Gwendolyn Gwen D. Pimentel (+11.4 percentage points), former Cavite Representative

Gilbert Cesar Gilbert C. Remulla (+10.5 percentage points) and AKBAYAN Party-ListRepresentative Ana Theresia Risa Hontiveros H. Hontiveros-Baraquel (+5.8 percentagepoints). The only candidate posting a significant decline in voter support is Atty.

Alexander Pinoy L. Lacson (-10.9 percentage points). (See Table 2Comparative

Senatorial Voter Preferences).

Table 2COMPARATIVE SENATORIAL VOTER PREFERENCES

January and February 2010 / Philippines(Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)

Page 1 of 2

Change*Jan Feb Feb10 -10 10 Jan10

62 61names names

BONG REVILLA, Ramon Jr. "Kap" B. 51.9 53.6 + 1.7ESTRADA, Jinggoy E. 50.4 52.6 + 2.2DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO, Miriam P. 41.2 49.4 + 8.2CAYETANO, Pilar Juliana "Pia" S. 46.8 45.4 - 1.4DRILON, Franklin "Frank" M. 43.2 45.0 + 1.8

ENRILE, Juan Ponce "JPE" 39.7 43.8 + 4.1SOTTO, Vicente III "Tito" C. 30.5 33.2 + 2.7RECTO, Ralph G. 34.4 33.1 - 1.3OSMEA, Sergio III "Serge" R. 31.6 29.1 - 2.5MARCOS, Ferdinand Jr. "Bongbong" R. 26.3 28.2 + 1.9

LAPID, Manuel "Lito" M. 29.7 25.8 - 3.9GUINGONA, Teofisto III "TG" D. 19.7 24.3 + 4.6DE VENECIA, Jose III "Joey" P. 24.0 23.5 - 0.5BIAZON, Rozzano Rufino "Ruffy" B. 19.8 22.7 + 2.9PIMENTEL, Gwendolyn "Gwen" D. 8.5 19.9 +11.4

REMULLA, Gilbert Cesar "Gilbert" C. 8.9 19.4 +10.5HONTIVEROS-BARAQUEL, 11.0 16.8 + 5.8

Ana Theresia "Risa Hontiveros" H.ROCO, Sonia "Son" M. 14.6 14.8 + 0.2OSMEA, Emilio Mario "Promdi" R. 11.6 12.2 + 0.6TATAD, Francisco "Kit" S. 10.2 12.0 + 1.8

LOZADA, Jose Apolinario Jr. "Jun Lozada" L. 9.9 11.4 + 1.5MITRA, Ramon "Mon-Mon" B.

12.5 11.4 - 1.1LANGIT, Rey M. 9.2 10.9 + 1.7LIM, Danilo "General Danny" D. 11.4 10.4 - 1.0QUERUBIN, Ariel "Marines" O. 3.9 8.8 + 4.9

LACSON, Alexander "Pinoy" L. 19.1 8.2 - 10.9OCAMPO, Saturnino "Satur" C. 4.2 7.5 + 3.3MAZA, Liza "Liza Masa ng Gabriela" L. 4.0 7.3 + 3.3

, me a . 6.7 6.6 - 0.1TAMANO, Adel A. 3.9 5.4 + 1.5

Note: *Change = Figures of February 2010 minus Figures of January 2010.

Senatorial Preferences Voting For (%)


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Table 2

COMPARATIVE SENATORIAL VOTER PREFERENCESJanuary and February 2010 / Philippines

(Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)Page 2 of 2

Change*

Jan Feb Feb10 -10 10 Jan10

62 61names names

BELLO, Silvestre III "Bebot" H. 4.0 4.5 + 0.5VILLANUEVA, Hector "Ka Hector" L. 2.8 4.4 + 1.6ACOSTA, Nereus Jr. "Neric" O. 4.4 3.9 - 0.5OPLE, Susan "Toots" V. 6.1 3.8 - 2.3BAUTISTA, J.V. Larion 3.6 3.6 0.0

BAUTISTA, Martin "Dr. Balikbayan" D. 3.7 3.5 - 0.2LAMBINO, Raul L. 3.2 3.2 0.0OCAMPO, Ramoncito "Monching" P. 2.2 3.2 + 1.0ALBANI, Shariff Ibrahim "Shariff" H. 2.6 2.9 + 0.3PALPARAN, Jovito Jr. "Jovi" S. 2.4 2.7 + 0.3

TAMAYO, Reginald "Regie" B. 2.5 2.7 + 0.2GUICO, Ramon Jr. "Monching" N. 1.6 2.6 + 1.0PLAZA, Rodolfo Rodrigo "Ompong" G. 1.4 2.3 + 0.9ESPINOSA, NANETTE "Ate Nanette" M. 3.9 2.2 - 1.7ALONTO, Zafrullah "Noldy" M. 2.2 2.0 - 0.2

SISON, Adrian O. 1.3 2.0 + 0.7

INOCENCIO, Ma. Katherine 1.8 1.8 0.0Luningning "Kata" R.

PAREDES, Zosimo Jesus II "Jess" M. 1.1 1.6 + 0.5LAO, Yasmin "Yas" B. 1.2 1.5 + 0.3TINSAY, Alexander "Alex Tinsay" B. 0.6 1.5 + 0.9

CAUNAN, Henry B. 1.6 1.4 - 0.2DAVID, Rizalito "Lito" Y. 2.0 1.4 - 0.6NIKABULIN, Adz "Count Habib" G. 0.6 1.3 + 0.7MAAMBONG, Regalado "Dodong" E. 1.4 1.2 - 0.2IMBONG, Jo Aurea "Ate Jo" M. 1.6 1.0 - 0.6

TARRAZONA, Hector "Tarzan" M. 0.3 1.0 + 0.7

RIOZA-PLAZO, Maria Gracia "Grace" DV. 0.5 0.9 + 0.4LOOD, Alma A. 0.2 0.7 + 0.5PRINCESA, Reynaldo "Prince" R. 0.6 0.6 0.0VALDEHUESA, Manuel Jr. "Manny" E. 0.7 0.6 - 0.1VIRGINES, Israel "Dr. Israel" N. 0.7 0.6 - 0.1

Note: *Change = Figures of February 2010 minus Figures of January 2010.

Senatorial Preferences Voting For (%)

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MR2 - PESFEB2010- MR on Senatorial Preferences (Final) 09 March 2010