Műanyagipari gépberuházások 2011

8/7/2019 Manyagipari gpberuhzsok 2011

1/20

Krzis, vltozs s alkalmazkods a

Bdy Lszl

2011. Mrcius 30.


2/20

Agenda

1. Krzis elmlet2. A vlsg szmokban

3. A magyar manyagipar szmokban.


3/20

Vlsg elmlet

No problem can be solved from the same level of .

Gazdasgi vlsg = a vilggazdasg struktrinakm s e gte ens ge economy,

Feladat: vltoztats, jrastrukturls,

A vlsg vgetr ha a szksges vltozsok vgbemennek,

A vltozs sebessge meghatrozza a vlsg hosszt,

vlsgban lv struktrkhoz.


4/20

A vlsg szmokban / GDP

Real GDP growth rate between 2000 and 2014

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

years

China, People's Republic of India Russian Federation United States European Union World


5/20

A vlsg szmokban / GDP

Real GDP growth rate between 2000 and 2014

10

6

8

2

4

%

-4

-2

0

-8

-6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

years

Eastern Europe Europe Western Europe

Central and Eastern Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Euro area

Euro ean Union World


6/20

A vlsg szmokban / Oil price

OPEC weekly basket price

100,00

120,00

80,00

r

40,00

60,00USD

/ba

20,00

0,00

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


7/20

A vlsg szmokban / Oil price

OPEC monthly basket price

120

100

110

80

90

U

SD/barr

70

60

February-11 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 August-11 Sep-10 Oct-10 November-11 December-11 January-11 February-11 Mar-11


8/20

A vlsg szmokban / manyagalapanyag rak

Country (All) Data2 Average prices () Name of grade type (All) Resin (All)

1350

1450

1050

1150

1250

(Euro/m

HDPE

LDPE

PP copo

PP homo

Resin Type

850

950

9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Averageofweek

AverageofWeek

Averageofweek1

Averageofweek1

Averageofweek1

Averageofweek1

Averageofweek1

Averageofweek1

Averageofweek1

Averageofweek1

Averageofweek1

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

Averageofweek

fforecasted_week

fore

casted_week1

fore

casted_week1

fore

casted_week1

fore

casted_week1

fore

casted_week1

fore

casted_week1

fore

casted_week1

Average

Averageo

Averageo

Averageo

Averageo

Averageo

Averageo

Averageo

Data


9/20

A vlsg szmokban / polimer kereslet

Polyolefin consumption in newly joined EU countries

1600

1200

800

1000

(kt

LD+LLD

HD+MD

PP

400

600

0

200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F


10/20

Eurpa a vlsg vesztese?

Foly fizetsi mrleg 1997 s 2015 kztt a GDP %-ban

20,0%

25,0%

10,0%

15,0%

0,0%

5,0%

-10,0%

-5,0%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Middle East and North Africa ASEAN-5

Euro area Commonwealth of Independent States European Union

Advanced economies Major advanced economies (G7) India

Central and eastern Euro e


11/20

Hozzadott rtk a manyagiparban

European Union (27 countries) 43,16 43,9 44,8 46,59

Portugal 30,3 25,8 30,6 33,4

Slovenia 30,6 28,8 30,0 29,8

, , , ,

Poland 14,7 16,6 17,8 19,6Slovakia 14,1 16,3 16,0 19,1

Hungary 15,7 17,6 17,2 18,7

Estonia 12,3 12,8 15,0 17,0

Latvia 8,6 10,4 10,4 15,3

Lithuania 9,3 11,2 16,2 14,7

Romania 6,5 7,5 8,5 10,7Bulgaria 3,9 4,5 5,7


12/20

A legmagasabb a hozzadott rtk az auts E+E ipargakban

50%

60%

30%

40%Packaging

Construction

Automotive

20% E/EOthers

0%

r ia ic ia ry iva ia nd ia kia nia

Bulg

CzechRepu EstoHun La

Lithua Po

RomaSlovSlov


13/20

A magyar manyagipar helyzete

Distribution of LDPE consumption in CE in (2006)

7%

11%

1%

15%

10% Bulgaria

1%

EstoniaHungary

Latvia

Lithuania

14%

Poland

Romania

Slovakia

Slovenia

1%

3%37%


14/20


Distribution of LDPE consumption in CE in (2009)

9%

10%

4%

12%

Bulgaria

3%

EstoniaHungary

Latvia

12%Poland

Romania

Slovakia

2%

3%34%


15/20


Distribution of LDPE consumption in Hungary (2006)

38%

Packaging

Construction

Automotive

55% Others

7%0%

0%


16/20


Distribution of LDPE consumption in Hungary (2009)

14%

0%

Packaging

Construction

Automotive

E/E

Others

76%


17/20


LDPE 49,9 6,2 0,0 0,0 33,9 90,0

HDPE 33,2 30,0 5,4 0,0 38,5 107,0

PP 76 5 10 3 29 7 29 9 60 3 206 7

PVC 10,0 80,0 1,0 3,0 11,0 105,0

Total: 169,6 126,5 36,1 32,9 143,7 508,7

2009 Packaging Construction Automotive E/E Others Total ChangesLDPE 53,0 7,3 0,0 0,0 9,5 69,8 77,6%

HDPE 31,5 22,3 5,1 0,0 20,3 79,2 74,0%

PP 85,2 12,5 34,8 24,7 48,5 205,7 99,5%

PVC 15,0 40,0 2,0 1,5 9,5 68,0 64,8%

Total: 184,7 82,1 41,9 26,2 87,8 422,7 83,1%Changes 108,9% 64,9% 116,2% 79,6% 61,1% 83,1%


18/20

Kvetkeztetsek

A vil me vltozott

Az alapanyagok ra folyamatosan n,

Nvekv verseny a hazai piacokon is lesed verseny az erforrsokrt,

Alacsony fedezet,

A tllshez s alkalmazkodshoz szksges: iacok,

j vevk,

j termkek, Verseny szablyozs,

Kooperci,


19/20

Kvetkeztetsek

kvetelmn ek

Nem a gp, hanem a termk a fontosabb, A termkfejleszts (mit?) elzze meg a beruhzst,

Piacpts (kinek?) elzze meg a beruhzst,

kzsen, (sok tlet jhet innen) A magasa hozzadott rtk a fontos, a packaging j irny de

minsg kell, cl lehet az import kivltsa (pl: shrink sleevs),

Nem a mennyisgi nvekeds a cl, hanem a fedezet nvelse.


20/20

Documents

Műanyagipari gépberuházások 2011