MULTI-HAZARD RISK ANALYSIS

of Climate-Related Disasters in

Bangladesh

• Risk is a result of the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and hazard

• INFORM indexing Method

• 24 indicators

• three dimensions- hazard and exposure, vulnerability, and lack of coping capacity

• Classes-

o very high (>=6.5),

o high (>=5-6.49),

o medium (>=3.5-4.99),

o low (>=2-3.49), and

o very low (<2)

Figure: Climate-related hazard risk components and indicators

Multi-Hazard Risk

Hazards

X X =

Exposure Vulnerability

Multi-Hazard Risk Index

Forecasted People In Need

• The climate-related hazard risk based on the

deterministic impact population data (2014-2020)

impacted the population vary significantly- ranging

from 5 to 778 per thousand people.

• The researchers have reached an inference that

660 per 1,000 people (95 percent confidence

intervals) will be impacted by climate-related

hazards annually in the next five years.

• The study estimated that annually 12.10 million

people (2.71 million households) that could be

potentially impacted out of 18.33 million people

(4.10 million households) who will be annually

exposed to climate-related multi-hazards.

0

0.0002

0.0004

0.0006

0.0008

0.001

0.0012

0.0014

0.0016

0.0018

0.002

-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000

No

rmal

ised

val

uer

of

Aff

ecet

d p

er 1

00

0

Normal distribution curve of affected population (2014-2020)

660 at (95%

confidence

level)

Hazard Based Severity Ranking

List of contextualized indicators used for forecasting priority needs

Living Standards The basic needs are measured using the following indicators:

▪ poor people

▪ household dietary diversity score

▪ dwelling structure

Coping Capacity The severity of the coping strategies is measured using the

following indicators:

▪ livelihood groups

▪ poor female headed HHs

▪ ethnic population

Physical and Mental

Wellbeing

Physical and mental health is measured using the following

indicators:

▪ persons with disability

▪ elderly persons,

▪ prevalence of undernourishment (severely stunted children)

Type of Hazard Number of DistrictsNumber of Household

Total Potential Impact HH

Minimal # Stress # Severe # Extreme #Cyclone and Strom Surge 17 104,919 145,935 180,299 152,409 583,562

Flood and Riverbank Erosion (17 Districts are

Riverbank Erosion Prone)

38 327,006 469,782 712,195 556,799 2,065,781

Flash Flood (all districts overlapped with

flood)

6 50,611 76,496 109,221 86,391 322,719

Landslide (3 Districts overlapped with

Cyclone and Strom Surge)

5 18,680 23,501 27,381 23,557 93,119

Threshold And Trigger Analysis

Flood Forecast and Trigger Cyclone Forecast and Trigger

Landslide Forecast and Trigger

LIK

EL

IHO

OD

HIGH >89 km/h maximum sustain wind speed (Signal 8,9,10) >3 m surge height

MEDIUM 62-88 km/h maximum sustain wind speed (Signal 5,6,7) 2-3 m surge height

LOW 51-61 km/h maximum sustain wind speed (Signal 4) 1-2 m surge height

X

VERY

LOW

<50 km/h maximum sustain wind speed (Signal 1, 2, 3) up to 1 m surge height

Risk Seriousness

500,000 Pop 1,000,000

Pop 1,500,000 Pop 2,000,000 Pop

VERY LOW

(MINIMAL)

LOW

(MINOR)

MEDIUM

(SIGNIFICANT)

HIGH

(SEVERE)

IMPACT

(The cyclone landfall district plus other two adjacent districts)

LIK

EL

IHO

OD

(5

ye

ars

an

d 2

0 Y

ea

rs) HIGH >70%

MEDIUM 50%-70%

LOW 30%-50% X

VERY LOW >30%

Risk Seriousness

<2 Years (70,000

to 75,000 m'3)

2-5 Years

(75,000 to

90,000 m'3)

5-20 Years

(90,000 to

105,000 m'3)

>20 Years

(>105,000

m'3)

VERY LOW

(MINIMAL)

LOW

(MINOR)

MEDIUM

(SIGNIFICANT)

HIGH

(SEVERE)

IMPACT

(at Bahadurabad Station)

LIK

EL

IHO

OD

HIGH >300 mm rain within 10

days (40% probability)

MEDIUM >150 mm rain within 10

days (60% probability)

LOW >50 mm rain within 10

days (80% probability) X

VERY LOW <50 mm rain within 10

days

Risk Seriousness

0-20% area 20-40% area 40-60% area >60% area

VERY LOW

(MINIMAL)

LOW

(MINOR)

MEDIUM

(SIGNIFICANT)

HIGH

(SEVERE)

IMPACT

(Most vulnerable landslide site)

Riverbank Erosion Forecast and Trigger

LIK

EL

IHO

OD

HIGH 70% vulnerable to erosion X

MEDIUM 50% vulnerable to erosion X

LOW 30% vulnerable to erosion

VERY LOW <30% vulnerable to erosion

Risk Seriousness

1-10 Ha settlements

10-20 Ha settlements

20-30 Ha settlements

>30 Ha settlements

VERY LOW

(MINIMAL)

LOW

(MINOR)

MEDIUM

(SIGNIFICANT)

HIGH

(SEVERE)

IMPACT

(Riverbank erosion in each district)

Questions and Answers

• GoB: MoDMR; DDM: FFWC; Disaster

Management Committees (DMCs) at District,

Upazila and Union level

• Anticipatory Action 2021 framework and

Collaboration: OCHA; RCO; FAO, UNFPA,

UNICEF, WFP, Red Cross/Red Crescent, BDRCS,

the Start Network, Save the Children

• The CERF Anticipatory Action piloted in 2020;

in 2021, targeted 05 flood prone districts in

Jamuna basin;

around 100,000 households would be in receipt

of anticipatory action support (cash and non-

cash assistance)

Anticipatory Action Partnership, Framework and Collaboration

DEM LULC RainfallWater

Level

Socio economic

factors

Final Target Areas

Factors Considered for Identifying 5 most Flood prone Districts from 13 districts

1. DEM (Digital Elevation Model)

2. Land Use Land Cover (LULC)

3. Rainfall

4. Water Level and distance from river

5. Socio-Economic Factors like 1. Poor Housing (1.Kutcha + Jhupri);

2. HHs without Electricity (percentage); 3. HH heads with “no

education”; 4. Agriculture as major occupation (HH head); 5.

Stunting prevalence; 6. Lower poverty Line 2016; 7. Popn %

Under 5 & over 65; 8. Multi Hazards Risk Categories

Union Targeting MethodologyFinal Result

Flood Depth calculation for 29 stations (Max. WL-DL)

Flood Depth map prepared for the 5 districts

Profiling (Three zones identified-Severe Flood, Flood and Warning areas)

Socio-economic condition merged with flood depth condition for each union

Prepared Composite Scoring

Highest Vulnerable Ranks

Number of Unions

6,7,8 321

• 321 highest vulnerable unions list has

been prepared using [Maximum WL

data (29 stations)-DL (29 Stations)]

and poverty condition (Composite

score 8,7 and 6)

• Map classification has been done

based on FFWC definition 26

85

74

75

61

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Bogra

Gaibandha

Jamalpur

Kurigram

Sirajganj

Number of Vulnerable Unions in 5 districts

Household Targeting for AA Common Database

Lists of vulnerable households collected from Union and Upazila Parishad

Existing beneficiary lists of emergency responses by humanitarian agencies (WFP, UNFPA, FAO, UNICEF, BDRCS, NGOs)

Government social safety net programme such as Vulnerable Group Development (VGD), Mother and Child Benefit Programme (MCBP)

Lists of vulnerable third gender and sex worker communities available for the districts -NGOs

Vulnerability indicators for household verification

Structure of the participant's house

with facilities

HH experience in a severe flood

disaster in the last 5 years?

HH main source of income

HH amount of land (in decimals)

HH having total family member

HH having children, adolescent girl,

Women

HH having elderly member (Over 60

years)

HH having Widow/widower,

abandoned or divorced women?

Children of the HH involved in

labour/work outside of the home?

HH having Pregnant or lactating mother?

HH having person with disability (e.g. difficulty seeing, hearing,

walking/climbing, communicating, remembering/concentrating or self-care)

Ethnic/Indigenous HH

Female headed HHHH impacted by COVID-19 (Physically affected,

Lose of income and livelihoods)

Number of livestock (cow/buffalo) owned

by the household

Pre-activation Trigger (GLOFAS 15 days lead time) – Pre-

activation Trigger reached when flow at Bahadurabad

likely (50% or above) to cross the 1 in 10 year return

period at least for three days. This corresponds to an

impact forecast of 3.7 million population affected.

Activation Trigger (5 days lead time)- Trigger reached

when forecast water level by FFWC at Bahadurabad (5

days lead-time) shows to cross the DL+0.85m and remain

above for 3 days. This corresponds to an impact forecast

of loss of household assets over 25% and over 40%

affected population.

Impact based flood triggers -BDRCS, RCCC, GRC

Real Time Geographical Targeting (after activation trigger)

RCCC Impact based

Forecast

VAM Analysis

MoDMR’sSituation Report Total 141 Unions

were targeted for AA

Thank you

Global INFORM Index-Bangladesh Sub-national Pilot and Scale Up

Special Meeting

Humanitarian Coordination Task Team (HCTT)

22 August 2021

• INFORM is a collaboration of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee Reference Group on Risk, Early Warning and Preparedness and the European Commission.

• INFORM is a multi-stakeholder forum for developing shared, quantitative analysis relevant to humanitarian crises and disasters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVcOiuDQIFs

INFORM products are used

by all kinds of organisation

and can be adapted to suit

their decision-making

processes.

INFORM Bangladesh is an initiative to localize the Global INFORM Risk Index for

Bangladesh at the sub-national (27 Upazilas) level, and this exercise included three

flood prone districts (Jamalpur, Kurigram and Sunamganj) for piloting the

localization following global INFORM framework.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/jafar.iqbal/viz/LocalisedInformRiskIndex-

Bangaldesh/INFORMBangladesh

https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/bangladesh/document/2

0213003nawgindex-rankinginformbangladesh-subnational27-upazila

Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh

Evidence-based decision-making for prevention, preparedness, and response to humanitarian crises and disasters. The localized INFORM risk index

will cover all Districts (64 Districts) and all Upazilas (492 Upazilas) of Bangladesh. The planned Subnational INFORM risk assessment for Bangladeshrequires six months.

UNDRR and UNRCO in collaboration with MoDMR

Months

SN Activity 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 Partnership and Collaboration

1.1 Consultations with Humanitarian and Development Platform

1.2 Consultations with GoB, UN, IFRC and INGO Co-Leading National Cluster

1.3 Regional (Divisional) Level Consultations

1.4 Consultation with Technical Expert Group

2 Localization and Development

2.1. Data collection

2.2. Processing and analyzing

2.3. Prepare report

3 Promotion and Update

3.1. Prepare interactive maps using tableau

3.2. Develop communication materials

3.3. Organize sharing workshop

3.4. Publish information on website

Required support and commitments from MoDMR by nominatingfocal point to scale up and updates regularly.

Questions and Answers