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Multi-Sector Urban System Initiatives

Colin Harrison

IBM Distinguished Engineer Emeritus

colinh@us.ibm.com

Regional Approaches to Urban Sustainability

A National Academies Workshop

Portland, OR – May 28-29, 2013

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From Engineering Efficiency to a Science of Cities

• 2005-7 Life on an Instrumented Planet

• 2008-10 Integrated, sustainable urban systems

• 2011- Sustainable and resilient urban systems

• 2012- People and urban systems

A Science of Cities

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Measuring, Monitoring, Modeling and Managing

Metering Sensing

Real Time Data Integration

Real Time + Historical Data

Data Modeling + Analytics

Visualization + Decisions

Data modeling and analytics to create insights from data to feed decision support and actions

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Comparison of historical data, with newly collected data

Data collection

Improved performance derived from data and models to increase efficiency

and effectiveness

Data Integration

Source: “Instrumenting the Planet”, IBM Journal of Research & Development, March 2009

Life on an Instrumented Planet

• The world’s resources are finite

– Energy – cost, GHG emissions

– Water – “no cost”, Tragedy of the Commons

– Space – roads take 20% of space

• Technology is cheap and available

– Billions of sensors

– Pervasive networks

– Capacity to store and analyze

• Need to close the loop

– Price signals

– Social Computing

– Behavioural Economics

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Integrated, sustainable urban systems

Intelligent Transportation Systems - Integrated Fare Management - Road Usage Charging - Traffic Information

Management - Electric Vehicles

Energy Management - Network Monitoring & Stability - Smart Grid – Demand

Management - Intelligent Building Management - Automated Meter Management

Environmental Management - City-wide Measurements - KPI’s, scorecards - CO2 Management

Smart Integrated Building Management

- Integrated control systems - Property Performance

Management - Building to Grid

Enhanced Public Safety - Intelligent Surveillance - Integrated Emergency Services - “Weatherproofing” - Micro-Weather Forecasting

Water Management - Smart metering - Network instrumentation - Combined Sewage

Overflow

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Source: Economist Intelligence Unit survey

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Loss of data

Human error

System failure

Supply chain disruption

Virus, worm or other malicious attack on IT systems

Employee malfeasance, e.g. theft or fraud

Natural disasters, such as fires or floods

Unplanned downtime of online systems

Terrorism

Power outage

Pandemic

Application failure

Industrial action

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31

29

28

25

22

22

16

13

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Natural disasters, human error, cascading failures, and cyber-security attacks highlight the complexity and fragility of our global society, its businesses and infrastructure

Thailand: Flooding 2011

Loss ~$4 B, 550 Lives

Auto and HDD are hit hard

Australia: Bushfires, 2009

Loss ~$4B, 173 Lives

WW: Cloud Service

Outage , 2011

Loss ~$5600/min

USA: Cyber-attack, 2011

Loss ~$170M,

Personal information

is stolen

Japan: Quake/Tsunami/

Nuclear, 2011

Loss ~$200B, 30K Lives

Global supply chain impact

USA: Port Strikes, 2002

Loss ~$15B

Retail and supply chain

disruptions

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Number of

incidents

reported to

US-CERT

(Source: US-CERT)

$200B

1900 2011

Estimated damage

caused by

reported natural

disasters

(Source: EM-DAT)

Types of threats

most important

for operational

risk management

planning

(% respondents)

China: + 37 countries,

SARS, 2002-2003

Loss ~$15B, 916 Lives

Major workforce

disruptions

Iceland: Volcano, 2010

Loss ~$1.7B

10M Passengers affected

Sustainable and Resilient Urban Systems

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People and Urban Systems

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Urban Systems

Information

Capture

Structure Integrate

Store

Typology Taxonomy

Networks Scaling

Economics

Basic

Resources

Natural

Environment

Flows &

Connections

Built

Environment

Integrated

Simulations

Engineers Complexity

Theorists

Urbanists

Transportation

Planners

Transportation

Managers

Energy/Utility

Managers

Public Safety

Managers

Public Health

Managers

Environmental Managers

Economic

Development

Leaders

Urban

Systems

Analysts

Social

Scientists

Civic Groups /

Open Data

A Science of Cities

Architects

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Closing thoughts…the City as a Design Problem

• Cities are and always have been information processing systems.

• Cities today are both the source and the solution of many of our global society’s challenges.

• Given the increasingly rich pathways between and among urban systems and people for digital information….what would Steve do?

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Thanks for your attention!

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Global Systems Science Challenges for Urban Systems 1. Formal representation of Urban Systems

• Structures of components • Interactions (P2P, P2S, S2P, S2S) • Inter-dependencies (P<-S, S<-S)

2. Spatial, Temporal, and Domain Integration • “Single View of the Truth” • What real-world problems are we trying to solve?

3. The Need for Flower Collecting • Patterns & Principles to simplify model building

4. Scientific Modeling and Practical Modeling • Understanding and insight • Support for decision-making • Rule of one hand – tipping points

5. Resource consumption & production • Natural and Man-Made resources • By-products, waste • Economic outcomes

6. View of “what is the City trying to do?” • “Real-time” sensing of interactions, resource consumption & production • Match between intention and capabilities • City as a Design Problem – How well does it work?

7. Transformation of how the city works • Transition from Industrial Age to Information Age • Planning for One