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MUNICIPAL POPULATION FORECASTS LEHIGH & NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES

January 2013

INTRODUCTION This memorandum explains our process for creating population forecasts for municipalities in Lehigh and Northampton Counties from 2010 to 2040. Such forecasts are useful and necessary to guide public planning efforts at the regional and local level. They provide a database for other forecasts used in the design of public facilities. Sewage flows, traffic generation, and water supply needs, to name a few, are all developed in part from forecasts of future population growth. These forecasts are particularly important to transportation planning since they are a main data input for driving the regional travel demand forecasting model which is used to estimate future highway travel. METHODOLOGY The forecasts presented are based on a method developed by Bruce Newling and described in “Local Population and Employment Projection Techniques, Center for Urban Policy Research, Rutgers University, 1978. The Newling model operates on the basic principle of an inverse relationship existing between relative population growth (growth ratio) over a specified period of time and population density (i.e. as population density increases, the rate of growth slows). Critical population densities were developed for municipal sub-areas. Each sub-area’s critical density is dependent on whether the area is urban, suburban, or rural in character. Each of the 354 traffic zones within Lehigh and Northampton County were assigned one of six critical density classifications to grow the areas at varying rates. The greater the difference between the actual and assigned population densities, the greater the growth rate. Population forecast control totals for both Lehigh and Northampton counties for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are used as inputs to the Newling model, from which small area forecasts are made (at the 354 traffic zone level). The magnitude of these control totals drives the overall population growth within the two counties. The population control totals used in the model are: Year Lehigh Co. Northampton Co. Total

2010 349,497 297,735 647,232 2020 385,710 329,516 715,226 2030 427,162 365,766 792,928 2040 469,975 403,979 873,954

2010 – 40 Growth 120,478 106,244 226,722 Fourteen runs of the Newling Model were conducted, each with varying critical density classifications which resulted in voluminous amounts of data at the 354 traffic zone level which is not included in this handout. Consequently, forecasts at the traffic zone level have been aggregated to the municipal level and are presented here.

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The forecasts derived are potential directions and magnitudes of future growth based upon certain assumptions about factors that might affect growth in the future. They are not policy statements of desirable future municipal growth trends. They provide a view of likely future population growth in the Lehigh Valley from which other types of planning analysis might proceed. REFINEMENTS TO NEWLING MODEL FORECAST METHODOLOGY Several additional sources of data and planning judgments were used to refine the basic forecast methodology and act as an aid in assigning critical density classifications to the various sub-areas. Factors considered are outlined below. Available Developable Land – Vacant land zoned for rural, suburban, urban, agricultural, and mixed uses were assumed to develop at different housing densities resulting in varying population densities. Zoning/Rezoning/Redevelopment Potential – Higher (more intense) zoning classifications result in higher population densities. Rezoning is more likely to occur in areas recommended for urban development due to the presence of public sewer and water. Public Water & Sewer Availability (existing and future) – Development is most likely to take place where public sewer and water already exists. Future development is likely to occur where infrastructure is likely to expand. Agricultural Easements and Security Areas – Agricultural easements, through the sale of development rights, eliminate a property owner’s ability to develop land for non-agricultural purposes acting as a constraint on population growth. Areas that have a high concentration of agricultural easements and security areas are likely to see slower rates of population growth. Natural Resource Areas/Surface Terrain - Natural resource areas include floodplains, wetlands, woodlands, and steep slopes and are likely to see limited population growth potential at most. A portion of northeastern Northampton County contains sizeable amounts of all these features. Areas along South Mountain contain woodlands and steep slopes. Impacts of the Recession – Movement of people to more affordable housing in the cities and the resultant increases in household size; movement of persons from more costly urban areas (New Jersey) to more affordable areas. Immigration & the Multi-Generational Effect – Multi-generational households are defined by the Census Bureau as households that consist of 3 or more generations of parents and their families. Multiple generations of families living in a single household results in higher household densities. Some of the most prevalent circumstances that lead to a large number of multigenerational households include recent immigration where new

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immigrants may choose to live with relatives, areas with housing shortages and high housing costs, and places with large numbers of single parents who choose to have grandparents assist with child rearing. Factors having a significant influence on the application of the Newling Model include available developable land and public water and sewer availability. For example, the number of acres of available developable land for the urban, suburban, rural, agricultural, and mixed use zoning categories was compiled using our Geographic Information System. Each zoning category assumed different population development densities as well as whether or not the area is served by public water and sewers. The product of this data is a maximum buildout population the land could support at current zoning classifications and was used as a check against the forecasts. This information, coupled with the previously-mentioned graphical information, proved valuable in the development of these forecasts. COMMENTARY ON FORECASTS Map 1 depicts 1980 – 2010 Population Change. Map 2 depicts 2010 – 2040 Forecasted Population Change. Table 1 depicts the History and Forecast of Population by Municipality. Table 2 depicts the Municipal Population Forecasts, but also includes data on absolute and percentage change over time. The population forecasts depict Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton, all urbanized areas, as growing significantly during the next 30 years. During the past decade, the City of Allentown grew by 11,400 persons, mostly as a result of higher population densities caused by immigration in existing developed areas. Allentown will continue to grow as a result of increased population densities, the multi-generational housing effect, and efforts to redevelop the center city and waterfront areas. Similarly, many small boroughs are limited by the lack of available land for further development but will experience growth in a manner similar to Allentown. Boroughs are likely to experience population increases through higher densities over the next 30 years. Both Upper and Lower Macungie Townships will continue to be fast-growing municipalities, although Lower Macungie’s growth rate will slow as land is consumed by development. North Whitehall Township’s population will expand further from the Route 309 corridor while Whitehall Township populations will increase in the northern half of the township where available land remains. Upper Saucon Township has sizeable land available for development and will continue to become a more urbanized area. In Northampton County, Bethlehem Township will continue to be a growth community, although the rate of growth will slow as the township runs out of land to develop. Forks and Palmer Townships will remain strong growers due to the influx of immigrants from the eastern metropolitan areas. Moore Township also offers available land for development. A comparison of the 30-year forecasts was made both relative to our comprehensive plan and past 30 year growth. This information is depicted on the Map 3 - Community Development Categories 2010 – 2040. This map was created by mapping the forecasted 2040 population densities as they fell within the critical density thresholds used in the Newling Model. Municipal population forecasts were aggregated to each of the four categories (Rural, Suburban Low, Suburban High, and Urban) for the 1980 – 2010 and 2010 - 2040 30-year time periods. The suburban category was split into suburban high

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and suburban low. Municipalities classified as suburban high were not quite urban in nature, but contained higher population densities than municipalities classified as suburban low, which were not quite rural in nature. The aggregate 2010 – 2040 forecast for Lehigh County urban municipalities shows a population change of 30,746, representing 26 % of total population change. In comparison, the aggregate 1980 – 2010 population change totals 15,395, representing 20% of the total population change during this period. This changing demographic is supported by the increased population densities residing within Allentown. The aggregate 2010 – 2040 forecast for Northampton County urban municipalities depicts a population change of 27,644, representing 26% of total population change. In comparison, the aggregate 1980 – 2010 population change totals 10,981, representing 15% of the total population change during the period. This increased growth trend in urban areas results from increased population densities and redevelopment/reuse efforts in Bethlehem and Easton. Lehigh County municipalities classified as suburban high are forecast to grow by 73,171 from 2010 – 2040 which represents 61% of the total growth during this period. From 1980 – 2010, these same municipalities grew by 52,055 accounting for 67% of the population growth. Although the percentage share of growth is forecasted to be less in the next 30 years than in the previous 30-year period, the absolute growth is forecast to exceed the previous 30-year period. Northampton County municipalities classified as suburban high are forecast to grow by 28,460 from 2010 – 2040 which represents 27% of the total population growth during this period. From 1980 – 2010, these same municipalities grew by 31,865 accounting for 44% of the population growth. Lehigh County municipalities classified as suburban low are forecast to grow by 7,144 from 2010 – 2040 which represents 6% of the total growth during this period. From 1980 – 2010, these same municipalities grew by 3,099 accounting for 4% of the population growth. Northampton County municipalities classified as suburban low are forecast to grow by 42,961 from 2010 – 2040 which represents 40% of the total population growth during this period. From 1980 – 2010, these same municipalities grew by 26,656 accounting for 37% of the growth. A sizeable amount of Northampton County population growth is forecast to occur in the suburban low municipalities in the coming decades relative to the amount of growth that occurred in these municipalities in previous decades. Migration patterns from New Jersey and New York and the relative availability of affordable land are expected to fuel this population growth in the coming decades. Lehigh County municipalities classified as rural are forecast to grow by 9,417 from 2010 – 2040 representing 8% of total growth during this period. Northampton County municipalities classified as rural are forecast to grow by 7,180 from 2010 – 2040 representing 7% of total growth during this period. This limited growth reflects strong agricultural zoning and agricultural easements within the rural municipalities. Given the significant overall growth the Lehigh Valley is forecast to receive in the next 30 years, this municipal area forecast represents the most likely growth patterns the region could experience. Given the uncertainties associated with forecasting populations (zoning changes, building moratoriums, changes in development pressures, economic climate, social factors, etc.)

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the forecasts will be reviewed and revised on a five year cycle with a major revision coinciding with the release of the 2020 Census.

1900 1950 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Municipality Census Census Census Census Census Census Forecast Forecast Forecast

Alburtis 979 1,428 1,415 2,117 2,361 2,588 2,848 3,132Allentown 35,416 106,756 103,758 105,301 106,632 118,032 122,666 130,338 139,617Bethlehem (part) 13,804 19,865 18,866 19,029 19,343 19,840 21,097 22,538Catasauqua 3,963 4,923 6,711 6,662 6,588 6,436 6,763 7,157 7,621Coopersburg 556 1,462 2,595 2,599 2,582 2,386 2,558 2,749 2,951Coplay 1,581 2,994 3,130 3,267 3,387 3,192 3,304 3,458 3,668Emmaus 1,468 7,780 11,001 11,157 11,313 11,211 11,607 12,088 12,676Fountain Hill 1,214 5,456 4,805 4,637 4,614 4,597 4,729 4,884 5,072Hanover Twp. 3,324 588 2,223 2,033 1,913 1,571 1,658 1,843 2,093Heidelberg Twp. 1,411 1,169 2,691 3,250 3,279 3,416 4,163 4,639 4,963Lower Macungie Twp. 2,920 2,997 12,958 16,871 19,220 30,633 33,749 37,011 40,596Lower Milford Twp. 1,233 1,390 2,865 3,269 3,617 3,775 4,252 4,541 4,859Lowhill Twp. 715 562 1,356 1,602 1,869 2,173 2,588 3,045 3,501Lynn Twp. 2,366 1,875 2,733 3,220 3,849 4,229 5,033 5,607 6,174Macungie 692 983 1,899 2,597 3,039 3,074 3,210 3,364 3,537North Whitehall Twp. 3,280 4,337 8,820 10,827 14,731 15,703 19,903 24,049 26,324Salisbury Twp. 4,582 4,583 12,259 13,401 13,498 13,505 15,120 16,896 18,551Slatington 3,773 4,343 4,277 4,678 4,434 4,232 4,400 4,589 4,798South Whitehall Twp. 2,472 5,604 15,919 18,261 18,028 19,180 21,513 24,119 26,621Upper Macungie Twp. 2,081 3,148 7,446 8,757 13,895 20,063 24,992 30,232 36,235Upper Milford Twp. 2,712 2,834 5,013 6,304 6,889 7,292 8,382 9,012 9,642Upper Saucon Twp. 2,271 4,240 9,635 9,775 11,939 14,808 18,880 23,568 28,672Washington Twp. 3,096 2,883 5,152 6,356 6,588 6,624 8,510 9,866 10,897Weisenberg Twp. 1,366 1,248 2,272 3,246 4,144 4,923 6,054 7,346 8,437Whitehall Twp. 7,935 11,269 21,538 22,779 24,896 26,738 29,247 32,815 36,801LEHIGH COUNTY 93,893 198,207 272,349 291,130 312,090 349,497 385,710 427,162 469,975Allen Twp. 6,541 1,095 2,465 2,626 2,630 4,269 5,433 6,821 8,195Bangor 4,106 6,050 5,006 5,383 5,319 5,273 5,765 6,310 6,985Bath 731 1,824 1,953 2,358 2,678 2,693 2,776 2,855 2,967Bethlehem (part) 52,536 50,554 52,561 52,300 55,639 57,970 62,092 67,007Bethlehem Twp. 3,090 3,940 12,094 16,425 21,171 23,730 26,116 29,323 32,917Bushkill Twp. 1,586 2,162 4,469 5,512 6,982 8,178 10,065 11,119 11,955Chapman 319 285 255 254 234 199 154 165 177East Allen Twp. 1,137 1,275 3,605 4,572 4,903 4,903 5,937 6,381 6,861East Bangor 983 988 955 1,006 979 1,172 1,359 1,570 1,820Easton 25,238 35,632 26,027 26,276 26,263 26,800 28,295 30,801 33,858Forks Twp. 1,147 1,948 4,612 5,923 8,419 14,721 16,709 19,308 22,186Freemansburg 596 1,739 1,879 1,946 1,897 2,636 2,649 2,666 2,714Glendon 704 601 354 391 367 440 396 431 474Hanover Twp. 401 891 6,073 7,176 9,563 10,866 12,125 13,657 15,446Hellertown 745 5,435 6,025 5,662 5,606 5,898 6,006 6,170 6,429Lehigh Twp. 3,769 3,595 7,985 9,296 9,728 10,526 11,544 12,417 13,350Lower Mt. Bethel Twp. 1,335 1,990 2,745 3,187 3,228 3,101 3,845 4,691 5,654Lower Nazareth Twp. 1,034 1,639 3,535 4,483 5,259 5,674 7,343 9,353 10,995Lower Saucon Twp. 4,141 4,506 7,372 8,448 9,884 10,772 12,336 13,840 15,488Moore Twp. 2,293 2,725 7,519 8,418 8,673 9,198 11,471 13,545 15,120Nazareth 2,304 5,830 5,443 5,713 6,023 5,746 5,984 6,293 6,689North Catasauqua 2,629 2,554 2,867 2,814 2,849 3,088 3,347 3,664Northampton 9,332 8,240 8,717 9,405 9,926 10,135 10,415 10,829Palmer Twp. 2,051 4,086 13,926 14,965 16,809 20,691 22,450 24,567 27,092Pen Argyl 2,784 3,878 3,388 3,492 3,615 3,595 3,938 4,327 4,815Plainfield Twp. 2,042 3,204 4,833 5,444 5,668 6,138 7,563 9,120 10,212Portland 490 551 540 516 579 519 643 793 976Roseto 1,676 1,484 1,555 1,653 1,567 1,798 2,064 2,391Stockertown 757 661 641 687 927 1,141 1,396 1,708Tatamy 260 681 910 873 930 1,203 1,406 1,646 1,941Upper Mt. Bethel Twp. 2,446 2,613 4,247 5,476 6,063 6,706 8,083 9,612 11,332Upper Nazareth Twp. 731 2,011 3,407 3,413 4,426 6,231 6,843 7,598 8,485Walnutport 1,427 2,007 2,055 2,043 2,070 2,177 2,284 2,419Washington Twp. 2,614 2,227 3,205 3,759 4,152 5,122 6,769 8,159 8,772West Easton 1,000 1,368 1,033 1,163 1,152 1,257 1,364 1,481 1,623Williams Twp. 1,819 2,381 3,843 3,982 4,470 5,884 6,744 7,519 8,084Wilson 8,159 7,564 7,830 7,682 7,896 8,015 8,139 8,361Wind Gap 711 1,577 2,651 2,741 2,812 2,720 3,082 3,492 3,988Bethlehem (Total L & N) 23,625 66,340 70,419 71,427 71,329 74,982 77,810 83,188 89,545NORTHAMPTON COUNTY 99,687 185,243 225,418 247,105 267,066 297,735 329,516 365,766 403,979LEHIGH VALLEY 193,580 383,450 497,767 538,235 579,156 647,232 715,226 792,928 873,954

HISTORY AND OFFICIAL FORECAST OF POPULATION BY MUNICIPALITY

TABLE 1

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; forecasts by the Lehigh Valley Planning Commission.

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2010 - 20 2010 - 30 2010 - 40 2010 - 20 2010 - 30 2010 - 40 MUNICIPALITY CENSUS CENSUS CENSUS CENSUS PROJ. PROJ. PROJ. CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE % CHANGE % CHANGE % CHANGE

ALBURTIS 1428 1415 2117 2361 2588 2848 3132 227 487 771 10% 21% 33%ALLENTOWN 103758 105301 106632 118032 122666 130338 139617 4634 12306 21585 4% 10% 18%BETHLEHEM 19865 18866 19029 19343 19840 21097 22538 497 1754 3195 3% 9% 17%CATASAUQUA 6711 6662 6588 6436 6763 7157 7621 327 721 1185 5% 11% 18%COOPERSBURG 2595 2599 2582 2386 2558 2749 2951 172 363 565 7% 15% 24%COPLAY 3130 3267 3387 3192 3304 3458 3668 112 266 476 4% 8% 15%EMMAUS 11001 11157 11313 11211 11607 12088 12676 396 877 1465 4% 8% 13%FOUNTAIN HILL 4805 4637 4614 4597 4729 4884 5072 132 287 475 3% 6% 10%HANOVER 2223 2033 1913 1571 1658 1843 2093 87 272 522 6% 17% 33%HEIDELBERG 2691 3250 3279 3416 4163 4639 4963 747 1223 1547 22% 36% 45%LOWER MACUNGIE 12958 16871 19220 30633 33749 37011 40596 3116 6378 9963 10% 21% 33%LOWER MILFORD 2865 3269 3617 3775 4252 4541 4859 477 766 1084 13% 20% 29%LOWHILL 1356 1602 1869 2173 2588 3045 3501 415 872 1328 19% 40% 61%LYNN 2733 3220 3849 4229 5033 5607 6174 804 1378 1945 19% 33% 46%MACUNGIE 1899 2597 3039 3074 3210 3364 3537 136 290 463 4% 9% 15%NORTH WHITEHALL 8820 10827 14731 15703 19903 24049 26324 4200 8346 10621 27% 53% 68%SALISBURY 12259 13401 13498 13505 15120 16896 18551 1615 3391 5046 12% 25% 37%SLATINGTON 4277 4678 4434 4232 4400 4589 4798 168 357 566 4% 8% 13%SOUTH WHITEHALL 15919 18261 18028 19180 21513 24119 26621 2333 4939 7441 12% 26% 39%UPPER MACUNGIE 7446 8757 13895 20063 24992 30232 36235 4929 10169 16172 25% 51% 81%UPPER MILFORD 5013 6304 6889 7292 8382 9012 9642 1090 1720 2350 15% 24% 32%UPPER SAUCON 9635 9775 11939 14808 18880 23568 28672 4072 8760 13864 27% 59% 94%WASHINGTON 5152 6356 6588 6624 8510 9866 10897 1886 3242 4273 28% 49% 65%WEISENBERG 2272 3246 4144 4923 6054 7346 8437 1131 2423 3514 23% 49% 71%WHITEHALL 21538 22779 24896 26738 29247 32815 36801 2509 6077 10063 9% 23% 38%

LEHIGH CO TOTAL 272349 291130 312090 349497 385710 427162 469975 36213 77665 120478 10% 22% 34%

ALLEN 2465 2626 2630 4269 5433 6821 8195 1164 2552 3926 27% 60% 92%BANGOR 5006 5383 5319 5273 5765 6310 6985 492 1037 1712 9% 20% 32%BATH 1953 2358 2678 2693 2776 2855 2967 83 162 274 3% 6% 10%BETHLEHEM 50554 52561 52300 55639 57970 62092 67007 2331 6453 11368 4% 12% 20%BETHLEHEM TWP 12094 16425 21171 23730 26116 29323 32917 2386 5593 9187 10% 24% 39%BUSHKILL 4469 5512 6982 8178 10065 11119 11955 1887 2941 3777 23% 36% 46%CHAPMAN 255 254 234 199 154 165 177 -45 -34 -22 -22% -17% -11%EAST ALLEN 3605 4572 4903 4903 5937 6381 6861 1034 1478 1958 21% 30% 40%EAST BANGOR 955 1006 979 1172 1359 1570 1820 187 398 648 16% 34% 55%EASTON 26027 26276 26263 26800 28295 30801 33858 1495 4001 7058 6% 15% 26%FORKS 4612 5923 8419 14721 16709 19308 22186 1988 4587 7465 14% 31% 51%FREEMANSBURG 1879 1946 1897 2636 2649 2666 2714 13 30 78 0% 1% 3%GLENDON 354 391 367 440 396 431 474 -44 -9 34 -10% -2% 8%HANOVER 6073 7176 9563 10866 12125 13657 15446 1259 2791 4580 12% 26% 42%HELLERTOWN 6025 5662 5606 5898 6006 6170 6429 108 272 531 2% 5% 9%LEHIGH 7985 9296 9728 10526 11544 12417 13350 1018 1891 2824 10% 18% 27%LOWER MT BETHEL 2745 3187 3228 3101 3845 4691 5654 744 1590 2553 24% 51% 82%LOWER NAZARETH 3535 4483 5259 5674 7343 9353 10995 1669 3679 5321 29% 65% 94%LOWER SAUCON 7372 8448 9884 10772 12336 13840 15488 1564 3068 4716 15% 28% 44%MOORE 7519 8418 8673 9198 11471 13545 15120 2273 4347 5922 25% 47% 64%NAZARETH 5443 5713 6023 5746 5984 6293 6689 238 547 943 4% 10% 16%NO.CATASAUQUA 2554 2867 2814 2849 3088 3347 3664 239 498 815 8% 17% 29%NORTHAMPTON 8240 8717 9405 9926 10135 10415 10829 209 489 903 2% 5% 9%PALMER 13926 14965 16809 20691 22450 24567 27092 1759 3876 6401 9% 19% 31%PEN ARGYL 3388 3492 3615 3595 3938 4327 4815 343 732 1220 10% 20% 34%PLAINFIELD 4833 5444 5668 6138 7563 9120 10212 1425 2982 4074 23% 49% 66%PORTLAND 540 516 579 519 643 793 976 124 274 457 24% 53% 88%ROSETO 1484 1555 1653 1567 1798 2064 2391 231 497 824 15% 32% 53%STOCKERTOWN 661 641 687 927 1141 1396 1708 214 469 781 23% 51% 84%TATAMY 910 873 930 1203 1406 1646 1941 203 443 738 17% 37% 61%UPPER MT BETHEL 4247 5476 6063 6706 8083 9612 11332 1377 2906 4626 21% 43% 69%UPPER NAZARETH 3407 3413 4426 6231 6843 7598 8485 612 1367 2254 10% 22% 36%WALNUTPORT 2007 2055 2043 2070 2177 2284 2419 107 214 349 5% 10% 17%WASHINGTON 3205 3759 4152 5122 6769 8159 8772 1647 3037 3650 32% 59% 71%WEST EASTON 1033 1163 1152 1257 1364 1481 1623 107 224 366 9% 18% 29%WILLIAMS 3843 3982 4470 5884 6744 7519 8084 860 1635 2200 15% 28% 37%WILSON 7564 7830 7682 7896 8015 8139 8361 119 243 465 2% 3% 6%WIND GAP 2651 2741 2812 2720 3082 3492 3988 362 772 1268 13% 28% 47%BETHLEHEM (TOT L&N) 70419 71427 71329 74982 77810 83188 89545 2828 8206 14563 4% 11% 19%

NORTHAMPTON CO TOTA 225418 247105 267066 297735 329516 365766 403979 31781 68031 106244 11% 23% 36%

REGIONAL TOTAL 497767 538235 579156 647232 715226 792928 873954 67994 145696 226722 11% 23% 35%

MUNICIPAL POPULATION FORECASTS

TABLE 2

ALLENTOWN

BETHLEHEM(NC)

EASTON

EMMAUS

BETHLEHEM(LC)

BANGOR

BATH

NORTHAMPTON

NAZARETH

WILSON

WINDGAP

PENARGYL

SLATINGTON

MACUNGIE

CATASAUQUA

HELLERTOWN

GLENDON

ALBURTIS

COPLAY

ROSETO

TATAMY

STOCKERTOWN

COOPERSBURG

EASTBANGOR

WALNUTPORT

PORTLAND

FOUNTAIN HILL

FREEMANSBURG

CHAPMAN

NORTH CATASAUQUA

WESTEASTON

LYNN

MOORE

LEHIGH

BUSHKILL

UPPER MT. BETHEL

PLAINFIELD

WEISENBERG

WILLIAMS

HEIDELBERG

FORKS

ALLEN

LOWHILL

UPPERSAUCON

NORTH WHITEHALL

LOWERSAUCON

UPPERMACUNGIE

PALMER

LOWERMACUNGIE

WASHINGTON(LC)

LOWER MT. BETHEL

BETHLEHEM

EASTALLEN

LOWERMILFORD

WHITEHALL

WASHINGTON (NC)

UPPERMILFORD

SOUTH WHITEHALL

SALISBURY

LOWERNAZARETH

HANOVER(NC)

UPPERNAZARETH

HANOVER (LC)

SALISBURY

ALLENTOWN

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!(33 N.J.N.J.

COUNTY

COUNTY

NORTHAMPTONCOUNTY

LEHIGH

COUNTY

NORTHAMPTON

COUNTY

LEHIGHCOUNTY

BERKS

COUNTY

MONTGOMERY

BUCKS

COUNTY

N.J.

MONROE

CARBON

COUNTY

SCHUYLKILL

COUNTY

1980 - 2010 POPULATION CHANGE

±0 21,000 42,000

Feet

LEHIGH VALLEY PLANNING COMMISSION961 Marcon Boulevard, Suite 310

Allentown, PA 18109-9397(610) 264-4544

LVPC

Print Date: January 14, 2013Source: US Census Bureau

MAP 1

Population ChangeLess than 500500 - 2,5002,501 - 5,0005,001 - 10,00010,001 - 15,000Greater than 15,000Major RoadsMunicipal BoundariesCounty BoundariesRivers

County Boundaries

Municipal Boundaries

Major RoadsForecasted Population Change

Less than 500

500 - 2,500

2,501 - 5,000

5,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 15,000

Greater than 15,000

Rivers

ALLENTOWN

BETHLEHEM(NC)

EASTON

EMMAUS

BETHLEHEM(LC)

BANGOR

BATH

NORTHAMPTON

NAZARETH

WILSON

WINDGAP

PENARGYL

SLATINGTON

MACUNGIE

CATASAUQUA

HELLERTOWN

GLENDON

ALBURTIS

COPLAY

ROSETO

TATAMY

STOCKERTOWN

COOPERSBURG

EASTBANGOR

WALNUTPORT

PORTLAND

FOUNTAIN HILL

FREEMANSBURG

CHAPMAN

NORTH CATASAUQUA

WESTEASTON

LYNN

MOORE

LEHIGH

BUSHKILL

UPPER MT. BETHEL

PLAINFIELD

WEISENBERG

WILLIAMS

HEIDELBERG

FORKS

ALLEN

LOWHILL

UPPERSAUCON

NORTH WHITEHALL

LOWERSAUCON

UPPERMACUNGIE

PALMER

LOWERMACUNGIE

WASHINGTON(LC)

LOWER MT. BETHEL

BETHLEHEM

EASTALLEN

LOWERMILFORD

WHITEHALL

WASHINGTON (NC)

UPPERMILFORD

SOUTH WHITEHALL

SALISBURY

LOWERNAZARETH

HANOVER(NC)

UPPERNAZARETH

HANOVER (LC)

SALISBURY

ALLENTOWN

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!(248

!(611

!(987

!(987

!(378

!(412!(100

!(873

!(863

!(946

!(309

!(248

!(611

!(191

!(512

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!(33 N.J.

N.J.

COUNTY

COUNTY

NORTHAMPTONCOUNTY

LEHIGH

COUNTY

NORTHAMPTON

COUNTY

LEHIGHCOUNTY

BERKS

COUNTY

MONTGOMERY

BUCKS

COUNTY

N.J.

MONROE

CARBON

COUNTY

SCHUYLKILL

COUNTY

2010 - 2040 FORECASTED POPULATION CHANGE

±0 2 4 6

Miles

LEHIGH VALLEY PLANNING COMMISSION961 Marcon Boulevard, Suite 310

Allentown, PA 18109-9397(610) 264-4544

LVPC

Print Date: January 14, 2013Source: US Census Bureau

MAP 2

Forecasted Population ChangeLess than 500500 - 2,5002,501 - 5,0005,001 - 10,00010,001 - 15,000Greater than 15,000Major RoadsMunicipal BoundariesCounty BoundariesRivers

§̈¦78

§̈¦78

§̈¦78

§̈¦78

§̈¦476

§̈¦476

§̈¦476

£¤22

£¤22

£¤22

£¤222

OP29

OP33

OP29

OP33

OP329

OP100

OP987

OP309

OP145

OP143OP329OP873OP309

OP145

OP512

OP611

OP329

OP191

OP191

OP946

OP946

OP512

OP248

OP378 OP412

OP145

OP100 OP309

OP309

OP248

OP611

OP987

OP987

OP378

OP412OP100

OP873

OP863

OP946

OP309

OP248

OP611

OP191

OP512

£¤222

LYNN

MOORE

LEHIGH

BUSHKILL

UPPER MT. BETHEL

PLAINFIELD

WEISENBERG

WILLIAMS

HEIDELBERG

FORKS

ALLEN

LOWHILL

UPPER SAUCON

NORTH W HITEHALL

LOWER SAUCONALLENTOWN

UPPER MACUNGIE

WASHINGTON (LC)

PALMER

LOWER MT. BETHEL

LOWER MACUNGIE

EAST ALLEN

LOWER MILFORD

WHITEHALL

UPPER MILFORD

WASHINGTON (NC)

SOUTH WHITEHALL

BETHLEHEM (NC)

BETHLEHEM TWP.

SALISBURY

LOWER NAZARETH

EASTON

HANOVER (NC)

UPPER NAZARETH

EMMAUS

HANOVER (LC)

BETHLEHEM (LC)

BANGOR

BATH

NORTHAMPTON

NAZARETH

WILSON

WIND GAP

PEN ARGYL

SLATINGTON

CATASAUQUA

COPLAY

ALBURTIS

TATAMY

HELLERTOWN

MACUNGIE

GLENDON

ROSETO

STOCKERTOWN

COOPERSBURG

EAST BANGOR

WALNUTPORT

PORTLAND

FOUNTAIN HILL

FREEMANSBURG

CHAPMAN

NORTH CATASAUQUA

WEST EASTON

COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT CATEGORIES2010 - 2040

LEHIGH VALLEY PLANNING COMMISSION961 Marcon Boulevard, Suite 310

Allentown, PA 18109-9297(610) 264-4544

LVPC

±0 2 4 6

Miles

Print Date: January 22, 2013

County Community Development Category Population Change by 30-Year Period Comparison

Lehigh County Comparisons

1980 - 2010 Population Change Absolute % share of Change total change L. County Rural Municipalities 6,599 9% L. County Suburban Low Municipalities 3,099 4% L. County Suburban High Municipalities 52,055 67% L. County Urban Municipalities 15,395 20% 77,148 100% 2010 - 2040 Population Change Absolute % share of Change total change L. County Rural Municipalities 9,417 8% L. County Suburban Low Municipalities 7,144 6% L. County Suburban High Municipalities 73,171 61% L. County Urban Municipalities 30,746 26% 120,478 100%

Northampton County Comparisons 1980 - 2010 Population Change Absolute % share of Change total change N. County Rural Municipalities 2,815 4% N. County Suburban Low Municipalities 26,656 37% N. County Suburban High Municipalities 31,865 44% N. County Urban Municipalities 10,981 15% 72,317 100% 2010 - 2040 Population Change Absolute % share of Change total change N. County Rural Municipalities 7,180 7% N. County Suburban Low Municipalities 42,961 40% N. County Suburban High Municipalities 28,460 27% N. County Urban Municipalities 27,644 26% 106,244 100%

2040 Population Density

Rural (< 383 persons/sq.mi.)Suburban Low (384 - 854 persons/sq. mi.)Suburban High (855 - 3,030 persons/sq. mi.)Urban (> 3,030 persons/sq.mi.)

Major RoadsMunicipal BoundariesCounty Boundaries

MAP 3