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MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUNDMARCH QUARTER 2017
Strictly Private & Confidential
2
DisclaimerNeither Munro Asset Management Limited, Munro Investment Holdings Pty Ltd nor Munro Partners (together “Munro”) are providing any general advice or personal advice regarding any potential investment in anyfinancial products within the meaning of section 766B of the Corporations Act.
• Munro Asset Management Limited is the holder of an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL) number 480509. Our Financial Services Guide can be located on our website: www.munropartners.com.au. Thispresentation is not an advertisement and is not intended for public use or distribution. As such, it is not to be released or made available to any other party, or used for any other purpose.
• Munro has issued a product disclosure statement (PDS) on 1 July 2016 offering investors an opportunity to subscribe for units in the Munro Global Growth Fund (Fund). If you would like to receive a copy of thePDS, then please contact Munro on (03) 9290 0900 or [email protected] and Munro will arrange for a copy of the PDS to be forwarded to you. Alternatively, a copy of the PDS for the Fund isavailable on our website www.munropartners.com.au/access. All prospective investors should consider the contents of the PDS in full prior to making a decision regarding an investment in the Fund.
• No consideration has been made of any specific person’s investment objectives, financial situation or needs. The provision of this presentation is not and should not be considered as a recommendation inrelation to an investment in any entity or that an investment in any entity is a suitable investment for any specific person. Recipients should make their own enquiries and evaluations they consider appropriateto determine the suitability of any investment (including regarding their investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs) and should seek all necessary financial, legal, tax and investment advice.
• Munro, its directors, related parties, representatives and employees do not accept any liability for results of any actions taken or not taken on the basis of information in this presentation, or for any negligentmisstatements, errors or omissions of any of its contents and no legal or other commitments or obligations shall arise by reason of the provision of this Presentation or its contents, except as required by law.
• It contains selected information and does not purport to be all‐inclusive or to contain all of the information that may be relevant. The information contained in the Presentation has not been independentlyverified, nor have they conducted any due diligence in respect of the information provided. It should be noted that any projections or past performance are provided for general reference purposes and arebased on assumptions relating to the general economy and other factors beyond the control of Munro. Returns of the Munro Global Growth Fund are net of applicable fees, costs and taxes. Returns have notbeen annualised. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The MSCI AC World TR Index (AUD) refers to the MSCI All Country World Net Index in Australian dollars. The Top 5 Holdingsdepict end of month figures and may have changed materially from holdings during the month or not disclosed due to confidentiality reasons. Numbers may not sum due to rounding. Please also see ourFinancial Services Guide, Privacy Policy and Terms of Use via www.munropartners.com.au/legals/.
• The recipient represents to Munro that it is capable of making its own independent assessment as to the validity and accuracy of the financial assumptions, data, results, calculations and forecasts contained,presented or referred to in the Presentation, and the economic, financial, regulatory, legal, taxation and accounting implications of such. The recipient further represents to the Munro that it is not relying on anyrecommendation or statement by Munro. The recipient acknowledges that no independent third‐party audit or review has been obtained by Munro or has been undertaken by an such an independent thirdparty of the financial assumptions, data, results, calculations and forecasts contained, presented or referred to in the Presentation.
• This Presentation may contain forward‐looking statements, forecasts, historical performance, estimates, projections and opinions ("Forward Statements"). No representation is made or will be made that anyForward Statements will be achieved or is correct. Actual future results and operations could vary materially from the Forward Statements. Similarly no representation is given that the assumptions disclosed inthis Presentation upon which Forward Statements may be based are reasonable. The recipient acknowledges that circumstances may change and the contents of this Presentation may become outdated as aresult.
CONTENTSGLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK 4
MGGF PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS 11
KEY INVESTMENT THEME: BIG DATA (LONG) 15
3
4
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK
5
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKGrowth is improving in most global economies...with stimulus still to come.
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data
51.5
52.6
50.4 50.4
46.0
51.9
53.5
51.4 51.2
46.3
53.253.7
51.351.7
46.2
54.7 54.9
52.4
51.4
45.2
56.055.2
52.7
51.3
44.0
57.7
55.4
53.3
51.6
46.9
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
US Eurozone Japan China Brazil
Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI's)
Sep‐16 Oct‐16 Nov‐16 Dec‐16 Jan‐17 Feb‐17
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Mar‐09 Jul‐09 Nov‐09 Mar‐10 Jul‐10 Nov‐10 Mar‐11 Jul‐11 Nov‐11 Mar‐12 Jul‐12 Nov‐12 Mar‐13 Jul‐13 Nov‐13 Mar‐14 Jul‐14 Nov‐14 Mar‐15 Jul‐15 Nov‐15 Mar‐16 Jul‐16 Nov‐16
(%)
US Real GDP Consensus Forecasts
6
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKUS GDP consensus forecasts have consistently revised down...can Trump change the playbook?
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data
20112012
20132014
20152016
2017
7
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKThe transition from monetary accommodation to potential fiscal accommodation has led to some large trend reversals.
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data
‐20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Key Sovereign Bond Yields(10yr %)
US Italy Germany France
405060708090
100110120130
Apr‐15 Jun‐15 Aug‐15 Oct‐15 Dec‐15 Feb‐16 Apr‐16 Jun‐16 Aug‐16 Oct‐16 Dec‐16 Feb‐17
Global Commodities(%)
Gold Copper Brent Crude Oil CRB Commodity Index
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Global Currencies(%)
DXY Japanese Yen Euro Australian Dollar
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
CBOE Volatility Index
8
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKS&P 500 Index valuation is high, however earnings growth has now inflected positively and looks likely to continue.
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Mar‐90 Mar‐92 Mar‐94 Mar‐96 Mar‐98 Mar‐00 Mar‐02 Mar‐04 Mar‐06 Mar‐08 Mar‐10 Mar‐12 Mar‐14 Mar‐16 Mar‐18
S&P 500 Index Forward Valuation (RHS) and EPS (LHS)
S&P 500 Fwd EPS (LHS) S&P 500 Fwd P/E (RHS)
9
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKYield carry for equities has shrunk, but importantly remains positive.
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data
‐8
‐6
‐4
‐2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan‐62 Jan‐66 Jan‐70 Jan‐74 Jan‐78 Jan‐82 Jan‐86 Jan‐90 Jan‐94 Jan‐98 Jan‐02 Jan‐06 Jan‐10 Jan‐14
S&P 500 Earnings Yield ‐ US 10yr Bond Yield(%)
10
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKSelected market valuations…. Still look ok provided earnings growth comes through.
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data
P/E Ratio Dividend Yield (%)
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
S&P 500 Index 21.1 18.4 16.4 2.1% 2.1% 2.2%
European Stoxx 600 Index 25.8 15.6 14.3 3.5% 3.5% 3.7%
UK FTSE 100 Index 62.4 14.9 13.8 4.0% 4.2% 4.4%
Hang Seng Index 11.9 12.1 11.1 3.7% 3.4% 3.6%
Hang Seng China Enterprises Index 7.7 8.3 7.6 3.9% 3.6% 3.9%
Brazil Ibovespa Index 20.2 12.3 11.0 2.7% 3.5% 4.3%
Nikkei 225 Index 24.6 18.0 16.4 1.7% 1.8% 1.9%
S&P/ASX 200 Index 25.3 16.3 15.8 4.1% 4.3% 4.4%
11
FUND PERFORMANCE
12
MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUNDMonthly returns of the Munro Global Growth Fund compared to the ACWI TR Net AUD since inception (1 August 2016).
1MTH 2MTHS 3MTHS 6MTHS 9MTHS 12MTHS Since Inception
Local Currency Return 2.0% 2.4% 6.2% 5.0% 8.4%
+/‐ Currency Impact 0.1% ‐0.4% ‐2.2% ‐1.2% ‐2.0%
MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUND (AUD) 2.1% 2.0% 4.0% 3.7% 6.3%
MSCI AC World TR Index (Local Currency) 1.1% 4.0% 5.7% 10.0% 11.0%
+/‐ Currency Impact 1.0% ‐0.5% ‐4.1% ‐1.3% ‐2.0%
MSCI AC World TR Index (Net AUD) 2.0% 3.6% 1.5% 8.5% 8.8%
‐4%
‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
HANG SENG INDEX HANG SENG CHINAENT INDX
S&P 500 INDEX STXE 600 € Pr DOW JONES INDUS.AVG
SHANGHAI SECOMPOSITE
FTSE 100 INDEX NIKKEI 225 MSCI AWCI Net AUD MGGF
1 January to 31 March 2017(%)
13
MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUNDLocal currency returns of various global markets and the return of the MSCI World AC Index in AUD next to the return of the MGGF in AUD.
= FX Contribution
Index Return +1.5%
Fund Return +4.0%
14
MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUNDJanuary 1 to March 31 basis points attribution of the MGGF by investment category.
‐300 ‐200 ‐100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
FX
Long
Short
Hedging
MGGF Attribution(bps)
15
MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUNDJanuary 1 to March 31 basis point attribution of the MGGF by stock and by region.
Top 5 Performers Region Bps
Micron Technologies US 87
Siltronic GY 86
Facebook US 84
Activision Blizzard US 76
ASML NA 57
Bottom 5 Performers Region Bps
Anadarko Petroleum US ‐30
Anglo American UK ‐29
RPC Group UK ‐19
Cirrus Logic US ‐19
Thor Industries US ‐16
‐50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
United States Euro Region Japan Hong Kong Korea Sweden UnitedKingdom
Australia
Regional Performance (bps)
16
CASE STUDY: BIG DATA
BIG DATA
CREDIT AGENCIES
INFORMATION SERVICES
ADVERTISERS
MEASUREMENT & ANALYTICS
17
CASE STUDY: BIG DATA
AoI WinnersSub ‐ Trends
In a Artificial Intelligence world the ability to capture relevant and accurate information and then correctly analyse and interpret this data is critical for companies, social agencies and governments. Big Data and data providers assists organisations to make better decisions and ultimately helps them to drive productivity.
EXCHANGES
18
Credit agencies have been collecting data on individuals from before the internet even existed. The major credit agencies (Equifax, Experian and Transunion) have been pivotal to enabling mortgage, credit card and auto financing for years. Today their datasets extent to other verticals including employment, healthcare, insurance, utilities and ultimately have become relevant to silicon valley and the AI revolution.
CREDIT REPORTING AGENCIES: UNIQUE DATASETS AND PRODUCTS
Example: Employee Data Exchange and network effects
Source: Munro Partners estimates & Equifax company dataSource: Munro Partners (a simplification of Equifax TALX presentation, Feb 2007)
Build the dataset, technology and platform once and “sell it many times over”
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
31/12/2010 31/12/2011 31/12/2012 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 31/12/2016 31/12/2017e 31/12/2018e
Equifax Revenue Growth (US$ millions)
Mortgage Solutions Employer Services Financial Marketing Services
Online Information Solutions International Global Consumer
Verification Services
9.6% CAGR
19
KEY STOCK IDEA: EQUIFAX (LONG)Equifax is a global information solutions company that uses unique data, analytics, technology and industry expertise to provide insights to organisations and individuals to help them make more informed decisions. The company organises, assimilates and analyses data on more than 820 million consumers and more than 91 million businesses worldwide.
Key Stock EquifaxKey Details Market Cap: USD 16.4 billion
Listed: United States Revenue 2016: USD 3.1 billion
Qualitative Tests Growth: Forecasting top‐line growth of 9.6% CAGR from 2010‐2018, as company continues to develop new products and data sets, and expands across verticals and geographies. Also moved into higher‐value, complimentary analytics solutions. Economic Leverage: Expect EBITDA margins to expand to 38% by 2018 (from 31.8% in 2010). Leveraging datasets, platforms and technology spend across new verticals and geographic regions drives margin upside.Sustainability: The combination of proprietary data from multiple sources on one platform allows for sustainable sales across many verticals. Network effects get stronger with scale.Control: CEO owns ~US$35mn of stock, CFO ~US$12mn. Divisional chiefs have between $1mn and $10mn worth of stock.Customer Perception: Mission critical information, deeply embedded in client processes. New product innovation historically gets good take up by the client base.
Quantitative Tests Earnings upside: Sell‐side earnings estimates likely conservative. Street underestimates EFX’s structural organic growth profile. High incremental margins not properly reflected in consensus margin assumptions. Multiple upside: NTM P/E of 21.9x is attractive for a company of EFX's quality and growth characteristics.Catalysts / Sizing: 1Q17 earnings 26 Apr, AGM 4 May
Outcome Investment made: Feb 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Apr‐10 Apr‐11 Apr‐12 Apr‐13 Apr‐14 Apr‐15 Apr‐16
Forw
ard PE
Multip
le
Share Price
Stock Price Forward P/E Multiple
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Apr‐10 Apr‐11 Apr‐12 Apr‐13 Apr‐14 Apr‐15 Apr‐16
Forw
ard EP
S
Share Price
Stock Price Forward EPS
20
MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUNDConclusion
Positive returns for the quarter, with the Munro Global Growth Fund returning 4.0% compared to the MSCI AC World TR Index (AUD) returning 1.5%.
Sentiment indicators continue to improve pointing to better economic growth ahead, while interest rates remain supportive of further economic growth.
Assuming growth improves, earnings have room to inflect higher. Higher earnings contrasted against full but not expensive valuations should be mildly supportive of equity markets over the medium term.
Our investment process at Munro continues to identify winners from evolving structural forces in the economy. Our work on investment winners of the Artificial Intelligence revolution has yielded some good winners around ‘compute’ year to date and we have recently expanded our work in this area to focus on the ‘data’ side of the equation.
THANK YOU
Munro Partners (Australia)Level 1980 Collins StreetMelbourne VIC 3000+ 61 3 9290 [email protected]
Munro Partners (United Kingdom)Ground Floor
7 Melville CrescentEdinburgh Scotland EH3 7JA
+ 44 131 503 0016 www.munropartners.com.au