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Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants Capturing Behavioral Change Göran Marklund 2016-11-03

Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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Page 1: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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Mutual Learning Exercise

Evaluating Business Grants

Capturing Behavioral Change

Göran Marklund

2016-11-03

Page 2: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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Marklund,G (based on Geels, 2011) Value Transformation

Syst

em

Tra

nsi

tio

n

Paradigm

Transition

General conditions

Landscape Global challenges

Socio-Technical

Regime

System Innovation Mechanisms

Variation

Selection

Amplification

Page 3: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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Motives

Page 4: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

Why Public

SME Business

Grants? 1(4)

Branscomb, L.M. och Auerswald, P.E., Between Invention and Innovation – An Analysis of Funding for Early-Stage Technological Development,

NIST GCR 02-841, Washington D.C., 2002

Variation – Selection – Amplification

Page 5: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

Why Public (SME) Business Grants 2(4)?

Business R&D Allocation Patterns

Branscomb, L.M. and Auerswald, P.E., Between Invention and Innovation – An Analysis of Funding for Early-Stage Technology Development,

ATP, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Washington DC, 2002

Page 6: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

Why Public (SME) Business Grants 3(4)?

Four different innovation routes

Auerswald, P.E., Branscomb, L.M., Demos, N., Min, B.K., Understanding Private-sector Decision-Making for Early-Stage Technology Development – A

“Between Invention and Innovation Project” Report, NIST GCR 02-841A, Washington D.C., 2005

Page 7: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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Why Public (SME) Business Grants 4(4)?

Private vs. Social Benefits

Vinnova ”Uncertainty Degree”

”Non-probalistic – Ex ante”

Jaffe, A. (1998) The importance of "spillovers" in the policy mission of the advance technology program.

Journal of Technology Transfer

Page 8: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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Different Types and Scale of Impacts

Evaluation – Learning

Page 9: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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Innovation Journey

Expectations

Page 10: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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Idea

test Idea

Concept

verification

Customer

offer

Market

delivery

Ack

um

ulate

d

Pro

fits - Inve

stm

en

ts

I II III

Break

even

Early Development Stage

Vinnova’s SME Business Grants

Three Grant Types – Stage Gate Principle

Page 11: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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Idea Verification

Financing Certification

Risk Certification

Growth Processes

Subsequent Projects

R&D Projects Selection

Increased R&D-investments

R&D-cooperations

Intangible Assets

Licensing

Market Introduction

Value Added

Export

Product Profitability

Firm Level Profitability

Business Firm Growth

10 years

5 years

Spillover Processes

15 years

System Impacts

Ideation Volume

Idea Testing

Impact Logic

2

1

Organising Processes

Further Development Buy Outs & Mergers

Scaling up

Page 12: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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X

Y

1

2

3

Z

Z

Business

Firm

”Innovation

Journey”

Business

Group

Business

Networks

Value Systems

Value Chain

Development

Value Chain

Development

Funded

”Project”

Portfolio Expectations

Page 13: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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Methodological

Implications

Page 14: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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B1

Bu

sin

ess F

irm

P

ersp

ec

tive

P

ro

je

ct A

sse

t P

ersp

ec

tive

B2

B1 B2 B1 B2

B1 B2

B3

B1 B2

B3

B1 B2

B3

Idea

test Idea

Concept

verification

Customer

offer

Market

delivery

Ack

um

ulate

d

Pro

fits - Inve

stm

en

ts

I II III

Break

even

Ack

um

ulate

d

Pro

fits - Inve

stm

en

ts

Page 15: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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Population

Distribution

Loss

Profit

Control Group Challenges Type I

Betalar för resten

Normalfördelningskurva

Page 16: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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Firm X

Business Group

A

Narrow and Static Business Firm Focus

Control Group Challenges Type II

Project

Business Firm Structure

Firm Y

Firm Z

Intangible

Asset

License

Use

Page 17: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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Method Triangulation

Innovation

Knowledge

Frontier

Longitudinal

Intangible Asset

Monitoring

Project

Development

Monitoring

Long-term

Counter Factual

Analysis

System Analysis

𝑡0- 𝑡3

𝑡0- 𝑡10

𝑡7- 𝑡10

Page 18: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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Methodological Framework

For Understanding Impacts of SME Business Grants

Page 19: Mutual Learning Exercise Evaluating Business Grants - RIO MLE SME Caturing... · Customer offer Market d delivery s -s I II III Break even Early Development Stage Vinnova’s SME

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