Good morning.

My name is Medan Abdullah, managing director of Gazprom Marketing & Trading Singapore. I would like to thank the organisers of this conference for inviting me to speak here today to the esteemed audience of the 8th Asia LNG Summit.

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Before we begin, it is customary for us to share a disclaimer statement – one of the necessary evils of working in a business environment that is ever evolving, sometimes at a pace that surprises even an industry veteran like me.

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I doubt there are many here who will not have heard of Gazprom in the last week or so. Nevertheless, please allow me the privilege of speaking to you briefly on our parent company and the subsidiary I lead.

Gazprom holds the world’s richest natural gas reserves, with 17% of global and 70% of Russian gas reserves. Its 169,000 kilometres of pipeline is the largest gas transportation system in the world and plays a strategic role in Russia’s domestic gas distribution and export supplies.

Gazprom ranks as one of the most profitable companies globally, providing jobs for over 400,000 employees worldwide, who work across the entire oil and gas value chain.

Its variety of operations is matched by its global presence.

As you can see, Gazprom is involved in all aspects of the oil and gas industry, including geological exploration, production, transportation, storage, processing and sales of gas, gas condensate and oil, sales of gas as a vehicle fuel as well as generation and marketing of heat and electric power.

Its strategic objective is to maintain its global energy leadership position by diversifying destination markets, increasing reliability of supplies and enhancing efficiency of operations.

This means not only increasing market share in Europe in the long-term, but putting a growing focus on the Asia Pacific region and the LNG market.

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In 1999, Gazprom Marketing & Trading was set up in London to manage Gazprom's marketing and trading activities in the liberalised markets of Europe. GM&T is headquartered in London, and has offices in Singapore, USA, France, Germany, Switzerland and the UK.

In 2009, a Singapore subsidiary was set up. We initially focused on LNG trading based on a Sakhalin Energy contract we marketed into Asia Pacific.

As we developed direct relationships with the region’s buyers and traders, we diversified our trading business, building up a third-party portfolio, and are now a platform not just for LNG trading and marketing but also shipping and logistics, and trading in LPG.

To date, GM&T has delivered over 140 cargoes and GM&T Singapore today actively trades across India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, China, Malaysia and Thailand.

These trading deals are important as they allow Gazprom to develop an intimate understanding of the LNG market, particularly in our region, where LNG demand is the highest worldwide. They provide a solid base and sets Gazprom up nicely as an important supplier of LNG for the long term.

In recent years, Gazprom has made clear its ambition to expand its footprint into Asia. Just last week, a landmark deal was signed, the largest in Gazprom’s history, to supply 38 billion cubic metres of gas annually for 30 years to CNPC.

Our CEO, Alexey Miller, said on the occasion that this is the start of a fascinating story of Russian-Chinese cooperation, with many more essential chapters yet to be written.

Gazprom has also spoken often on its plans to increase its share of the global LNG market.

Both these aspirations are a perfect complement and I would like to take the next few minutes to share with you some of our views of the Asia Pacific LNG market. I’ll go briefly through the established news and traditional flows of the gas and LNG market before coming back to focus on what is changing in this market.

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To begin, demand for natural gas is expected to grow fastest of the fossil fuels at around 2% annually. This is driven by continued economic growth and increasing gas penetration in newer gas markets, particularly in non-OECD Asian countries, partly for environmental reasons.

Even with the expanding role that Renewables will play in global energy consumption, by 2030, natural gas will account for 23% of the world’s energy consumption.

More significantly, forecasts predict that Asia will account for 25% of natural gas consumption by 2030.

The LNG market is forecasted to grow even more quickly, at around 5% annually, than the overall gas market as countries look to enhance security of energy/gas supply, and significantly, as more LNG supply comes onstream later this decade.

A unique characteristic of the gas trade in Asia Pacific is the limited amount of natural gas that is traded via pipelines and the region’s growing dependence on LNG.

Though pipeline and LNG competition may exist in some markets, particularly in China, fundamentally there is a need for both.

Both long-standing Asian LNG buyers – the big traditional importers such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – as well as “new” LNG importers – particularly the Southeast Asian markets – will underpin LNG demand growth in the region.

Let’s take a look at the markets in Asia in greater detail.

In North Asia, demand in the traditional LNG import heavyweights of Japan and South Korea remains high.

These markets will continue to hold their leading position in the global LNG market, largely as a result of limited environmentally sound alternatives.

Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA), established in September 2012, has been reviewing the nuclear power plants for restarting based on a new set of safety standards.

The challenges facing all aspects of Japanese nuclear industry are well known, be it restarts, new builds or even decommissioning. LNG continues to be a reliable source of energy, competing effectively with other liquid fuels.

LNG demand in South Korea, currently the world’s second largest LNG market, will also remain robust as the country continues to face uncertainty over its nuclear power plant restarts.

In China, the government’s goal to increase gas usage, due to environmental reasons, as an important part of its 12th Five-Year Plan is a positive for the gas and LNG market.

Even with Gazprom and CNPC’s recent agreement for pipeline gas supply, we still expect to see a big growth in LNG demand in China.

China’s LNG imports could rise to 30 MTPA by 2015 and we believe Chinese demand will increase even more significantly from 2016.

Unconventional gas’ impact on the market in the future is still unknown as progress has been slow but consensus expects unconventional gas to become an important contributor to domestic gas production post-2020s, if technical and environmental challenges can be overcome.

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The newest player in the LNG market, and probably one of the most interesting given its challenges and diversity, is Southeast Asia.

New LNG markets of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore are currently importing and, in the medium to longer term, will be supplemented by Vietnam and the Philippines.

Domestic gas demand in Indonesia and Malaysia is outstripping domestic supply, forcing these countries to turn to LNG imports.

At the same time, exports are decreasing, so reuse of liquefaction facilities is being considered.

Gas demand from Thailand will also increase significantly post-2020. Certainly beyond what can be supplied by domestic production and pipeline imports as government policy decisions limit the number of coal-fired power generation.

In summary…

By 2025, demand for LNG in AP will increase by around 150 MTPA to surpass 320 MTPA, accounting for more than 70% of global LNG demand, which is estimated to reach around 450 MTPA.

Returning to the theme of change of today’s session – what is changing on the demand side in the Asia Pacific region?

We can see a general trend of demand uncertainty in the established markets, created by evolving national energy policies affecting both power generation and market structure and a far greater emphasis competitive on energy prices nationally.

For many years now North Asia has been regarded as the premium market for LNG and there seemed to be a tacit acknowledgement that being the premium market was a price worth paying for receiving a premium (i.e. reliable) supply.

We can see national policies developing that reflect a change in this view. The Japanese government has been outspoken about the need to purchase LNG more competitively and is looking at a number of ways to achieve this.

Japan is looking at the idea of a LNG buying consortium with the objective of diminishing perceived competition between Japanese buyers that they believe has driven up prices.

We are not sure we would agree with the assessment, and indeed given that Japan is also seeking to liberalise their power and gas markets, one could argue that this latter step will generate sufficient incentive for competitive purchasing without creating a consortium on the buy side.

Japan is also keen to promote more transparency in pricing and has recently started to publish the spot prices paid for their supplies.

Over the last few years we have seen the growth of the short-term/spot supply market – to the extent that Asian buyers are now coming to rely on this short term market for some of their base demand, instead of relying exclusively on long term transactions to meet such demand as they did in the past.

This does not diminish the fundamental requirement for the secure supply of LNG, but rather creates a new pattern of contracting, the full impact of which is yet to be known.

We are also starting to see cooperation between LNG buying countries to provide each other with support and this broader view of the market-place is also reflected in a growing desire of buyers for greater flexibility in their supplies.

Indeed, another potential source of change would be the development of a regional trading hub and greater price transparency as paper markets develop.

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I will move on now to the supply side and then reflect on the changes there.

Will supply keep up with the world’s, and particularly Asia’s, unrelenting demand for LNG?

This LNG demand will be supplied by both operational liquefaction projects, and those currently under construction, until 2018. Post-2018 new LNG supplies, from liquefaction projects that have not yet been sanctioned, will be required to meet demand.

2013 saw the highest amount of new LNG supply capacity reaching FID since 2005 – almost 30 MTPA of new LNG supply was sanctioned.

Much of the new yet-to-be-sanctioned LNG supply will be imported from new areas or new resources for LNG production such as East Africa, the Russian Arctic and unconventional gas from North America and Australia.

So what is significant about these new sources of supply?

Looking first at Australia, while it is often quoted that Australia will become the largest producer of LNG, overtaking Qatar, it is important to note that in Australia there are a number of unconnected projects, each seeking their own place in the market.

In Qatar, there is a common majority shareholder in all of the producing projects which enables a more coherent approach to marketing that LNG. We should not expect the significance of Qatar as a flexible LNG marketer to diminish in the face of Australian supply growth.

Moving on to the US – supplies from the Gulf Coast can be seen as another major change to the LNG supply pattern in the future. I will not dwell on this here other than to mention the impact on pricing. Supplies from the US are priced on a cost plus basis with a reference to a gas price index at a remote (from Asia) physical gas hub in Louisiana.

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While there may be times that this looks attractive compared with oil indexed prices, it is important to remember that there is no scope for price review in a cost plus system where the fixed cost is incurred up front.

There remains considerable uncertainty as to what extent the various LNG projects with significant volumes of proposed LNG export capacity will eventually reach FID and supply Asian LNG demand, but what we do believe is that oil-indexed LNG sales contracts are here to stay.

Many developers outside the US will be looking for predominantly oil-indexed prices. We also believe that Asian buyers have a limit to the exposure they would want to Henry-Hub linked prices, meaning that the demand for oil indexation will continue for the balance of their supply.

For sellers, the requirement is to secure a significant proportion of long-term contracted demand at viable and predictable prices before making the massive investments required for LNG projects.

For buyers, there continues to be a requirement for a majority of their supplies on a long-term basis, but there is a willingness to rely on short-term supplies to some extent and also contract on a variety of indices while continuing to seek geographic supply diversity.

The interdependency between seller and buyer has been the cornerstone of the LNG industry in the past and will continue to be so in the future.

Gazprom’s intention to increase its presence in the global gas market will be achieved through an optimal mix of pipeline gas and LNG deliveries and notwithstanding the recent news of pipeline sales into China, LNG is the main focus of that effort in the Asia Pacific.

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I have commented on changes on both the demand and supply side, so I am now going to comment on changes on what joins the two of them together – transportation.

Development of Gazprom’s key infrastructure projects, with their proximity to key demand centres in Asia, will allow it to become a strategic partner and reliable supplier to the Asian market.

This is illustrated by what you see here – approximations of the travel time from some key supply centres to Japan, the world’s largest LNG demand centre.

Aside from developments affecting the actual LNG vessels, the two most significant developments in transportation have been the demonstrable delivery of LNG through the Northern Sea Route, or the NSR, and the work to expand the Panama Canal.

The former brings supply sources in the Arctic much closer to demand centres in North Asia and the latter reduces the journey time from the US Gulf Coast to Asia. While the NSR can only be used in the summer and the completion and cost of Panama are as yet uncertain, we can anticipate that these developments will clearly change delivery patterns of LNG to Asia.

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This is a snapshot of three of Gazprom’s LNG projects.

Baltic LNG is a 10 mln t/year LNG plant to be constructed in the Baltic region.

In June 2013, Gazprom and the Leningrad Region signed a Memorandum of Understanding and Cooperation for the project.

The first 5 mln t/year line is to be commissioned in 2020. Its target markets are European countries not reached by Russian pipeline gas deliveries, such as Spain or Portugal, Latin American countries and the bunker fuel market.

The other two LNG projects you see here – Sakhalin 2 and Vladivostok LNG – are targeted at Asia Pacific markets, so I would like to provide you greater detail on them in the next slides.

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Sakhalin 2 is currently the key source of Russian LNG exports, accounting for 5% of global LNG supplies.

Phase 2 was launched in 2003 and the plant was commissioned in Feb 2009. Its reserves are 600 bcm of gas and 170 million tonnes of oil and condensate. The LNG plant has two trains producing 9.6 mtpa; in 2013 it produced 10.52 mt of LNG and 5.26 mt of oil.

Just three months ago, Gazprom and Shell signed a memorandum roadmap for the third train of Sakhalin 2.

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The Vladivostok LNG project is of great importance for developing the eastern part of the Unified Gas Supply System of Russia and boosting Russian gas supplies to the Asia Pacific markets.

Under this project, a liquefied natural gas plant will be built in the Khasansky District of the Primorye Territory in Lomonosov Peninsula, at Perevoznaya Bay. The plant will have three process trains with an annual capacity of 5 million tons of LNG each. The first train is expected to become operational – before 2020.

The first two trains of the LNG plant will be fed with gas from the Sakhalin gas production centre, while the third train will be fed from the Yakutia and Irkutsk centres.

In February 2013, the project entered the investment stage. In March 2013, the Action Plan for VLNG, as well as the Action Plan on the resource base of the project, was approved.

At present, the design documentation is being developed. In addition, design and survey operations are underway on the Lomonosov Peninsula and the Perevoznaya Bay – the proposed location of the LNG plant and surrounding infrastructure.

Marketing of VLNG is underway and my colleagues from GM&TS have already met with some of you here on the subject.

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It has been a pleasure speaking to you all here today.

It would seem to be stating the obvious when I say that while the Asia Pacific LNG market is robust and full of opportunities, reacting to, as well as anticipating, the changes mentioned here, is challenging.

We believe a long-term approach, underpinned by strong relationships and partnerships that we are seeking as part of our new LNG project developments, coupled with the ability to respond swiftly to shifts in the global LNG market provided by our global trading team, is the key to success in the evolving LNG market.

Over the past decade, Gazprom has been developing its position in Asia – through its positions in the LNG market and investments in infrastructure and will continue to do so into the future.

With the GM&T office in Singapore, we have the perfect platform to support the broader activities of Gazprom in the region, meet the demands of traditional importers, and play a role in the development of emerging markets.

We look forward to working with you and our many other partners to be a reliable supplier of gas in the region, as we have been to Europe for so many years.

Thank you and I wish you all a very successful conference.

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