My submission to the Boundary Commission on the proposals ......From: DONOVAN, Paul (Councillor) [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: 02 August 2009 21:00 To:

From: CROWE, Brian (Councillor) Sent: Tuesday, August 04, 2009 10:36 AM To: CROWE, Brian (Councillor) Subject: proposal

Proposals for the Boundary review for Cheshire West and Chester. I am submitting my proposal for the above review in my capacity as the Ward councillor for the Mickle Trafford ward of the Authority. I realise that the Status Quo for the authority as a whole is not feasible or desirable, however I believe that it would be unwise to break up a perfectly workable unit here in this ward (Mickle Trafford) that shares so much commonality of interest. I see no better solution to the review than to leave well alone here in this ward. I've scrutinised all the alternatives at length,some of which I have to tell you are unworkable impracticable and wholelly unacceptable to Parish Councils and the residents alike. A single member ward senario has no merit if implimented accross the Authority as a whole...for a raft of reasons, and the proposal being put forward by the CW&C that the Parishes of Mollington and Saughall be bundled in with the enormous conerbation of Upton by Chester certainly doesn't find favour with any..any..of the parishes or residents alike in the rural area affected. We sort the views of residents at several meetings accross the ward specfically to address the review options,where the general view was to leave well alone her in this area of the Authority. Those parishes have no commonality of interest,share virtually none of the services provided in Upton simply because of the geographical detail of distance and that the Shropshire Union Canal segregates the communities. My submission to the Boundary Commission on the proposals for Cheshire West and Chester be that Mickle Trafford Ward as it is at present ,meets the criteria of population numbers and commonality of interest. Brian Crowe Ward Councillor and Parish Councillor

From: DONOVAN, Paul (Councillor) [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: 02 August 2009 21:00 To: Jessica Metheringham Subject: CWAC boundary review

I wish to add my own comments and observations on the subject of the boundary review RE Cheshire West and Chester. At present I am an elected cllr in the Sutton Manor ward of CWAC having previously been a cllr for Pooltown ward on EP&NBC. My preference would be for SINGLE MEMBER wards, this would support the people and places submission accepted by parliament in 2008. At present, although my ward has three members the needs of the residents are completely diverse throughout it’s geography which does not assist effective casework or consistency in working with officers. I feel that single member wards would improve accountability and representation. It would also enable residents to identify more closely with the elected member whilst helping the member to get to know local people better. It would assist partnership working including the police/member relationship. It may be beneficial to a smaller ward to attract finance for certain projects. Basically in my experience members want to feel representative and can do a lot more for the residents of their ward if they feel that they have the local knowledge that SINGLE MEMBER wards bring Kind Regards Cllr Paul Donovan

BlaconOlder People

PopulationIn terms of population forecasts there is a significant increase predicted in the 65+ cohort of

5.3% up to 2011 and 21.1% up to 2016 which represent an increase of 500 residents

Population Change13,230 residents in 02 to 13,150 in 07 an increase of 0.01%

Blacon Hall Ward 7,840 in 2002 to 7,950 in 2007, an increase of 1.4%.

PopulationResident Population

Blacon Lodge Ward 5,390 in 2002 to 5,200 in 2007 a fall of 3.5%.

Note: These figures are based on the ONS published datasets. There

may be some evidence locally that they represent significant under

counts of the local population.

Source: Cheshire County Council Research and information unit. The estimates have been constrained to the Registrar General’s Annual population estimates ONS

PopulationChange in the age cohorts 2002 - 2007

60 -64

8.6%

5 - 9

-27%

90 +54%

30 - 34

-31%

Source: Cheshire County Council Research and information unit. The estimates have been constrained to the Registrar General’s Annual population estimates ONS

PopulationChange in Pensionable age Population

Source: Devised from data provided by Cheshire County Council

• There is a predicted fall in the population of Blacon over

the next ten year period of 4.5%

• This fall is mirrored in the 0 -15 and 16 – 44 with falls of -10.7% ands -8.2% respectively.

Population ForecastsBlacon unitary ward from 2006 to 2016

10.7% ands -8.2% respectively.

• There is a significant increase predicted in the 65+ cohort of 5.3% up to 2011 and 21.1% up to 2016

• 65 + increase in the older age cohort of 500 residents.

Source: Cheshire County Council Research and information unit.

West Cheshire and Chester Local Authority level up to 2026

In terms of providing a comparison the 2011 estimate for West Cheshire

predicts a 9.6 % increase in the over 65 population cohort, 4% above that

predicted based on the Blacon.

The higher level forecast predicts an increase in the over 65 population of

24.9% by 2016 only slightly higher than the Blacon unitary ward forecasts

Population ForecastsWest Cheshire & Chester LA Forecast 2006 - 2026

24.9% by 2016 only slightly higher than the Blacon unitary ward forecasts

of 21.1%.

Taking into account the clarity between the lower and higher level

estimates it is valid to project forward the population beyond 2016 for

Blacon based on the figures provided for West Cheshire and Chester

Local Authority.



Note: Population forecasts based on the 2006 ONS population estimate and produced by Cheshire County Council. Please note that all population forecastbecome increasingly less precise the further into the future you look. The data provided in the above table should only be used as a rather imprecise estimation offuture population rates.

Forecasted Blacon Unitary ward population 65 plus cohort 2016 – 2026 based on the West Cheshire and Chester Local

Authority 2006 – 2026 forecast.Source: 2006 – 2026 data Cheshire Lilac

Forecast year with 2006

as the base

Blacon Unitary Ward

population estimate 65 +

Increase form the baseline of

2006 in the 65 + cohort

West Cheshire estimates

2006 (base) 1,900

2016 2,400 500 21.05

2017 2,417 517 27.22


2017 2,417 517 27.22

2018 2,461 561 29.54

2019 2,495 595 31.32

2020 2,536 636 33.45

2021 2,580 680 35.77

2022 2,624 724 38.08

2023 2,667 767 40.39

2024 2,715 815 42.88

2025 2,769 869 45.73

2026 2,830 930 48.93


• Blacon ward will experience an increase of over 900

residents in the 65 plus cohort by 2026 based on the

West Cheshire population forecasts.

• A 48% increase in the 65 plus population cohort from


• A 48% increase in the 65 plus population cohort from

2006.

• Averaging out at approximately 2.5% growth per year.


HousingCheshire & District Housing Trust (CDHT) currently maintain 6,246 properties within Chester district.

35.4% of these properties are located in the Blacon area of Chester.

Sheltered Housing

• 317 properties have

been identified.

•This represents 5.5% of

all the dwelling stock

within the Blacon

•In terms of Blacon Hall

ward this represents 197

properties, 6.1% of all properties, 6.1% of all

dwellings in the area.

•In terms of Blacon

Lodge ward this

represents 119

properties, 4.7% of all

dwellings in the area

Chester & District Housing TrustLocation of properties by unit postcode

• 6,246 properties within

Chester district

•35.4% of these

properties are located in

the Blacon area of

Chester

•973 (15.6 % of stock)

located in Blacon North located in Blacon North

(Hall)

•1,235 (19.8% of stock)

located in Blacon South

(Lodge).

Current dwelling estimates in 2007 for Blacon Hall ward are 3,240; therefore 30% of all

dwellings in the area are administered by CDHT. In terms of Blacon Lodge ward the 2007

dwelling estimates are 2,550; therefore 48.4% of all dwellings in the area are administered by CDHT.

Crude population estimates based on CDHT Status Survey

Source: CDHT Status Survey

Blacon Lodge Blacon Hall Blacon Total Pop

Number of Residents Properties 973 1,235 2,208

1 52% 506 642 1,148

2 28% 545 692 1,236

3 8% 234 296 530

Chester & District Housing TrustArea Population Estimates

4 7% 272 346 618

5 5% 243 309 552

Total 2,773 3,520 6,293

Percentage of Area Properties 48% 30%

Estimate based on household composition of CDHT

properties 5,546 10,559 16,105

2007 ONS Population Estimates 5,200 7,950 13,150

22% Difference

Income Deprivation Affecting Older People

IDAOP

29% of identified older person households are affected by income deprivation in Blacon

Income deprivation affecting older people defined as those adults 60 or over living inpension credit (guarantee) households as a proportion of all those 60 or over.

HealthThe "prevalence" of a condition means the number of people who currently have the condition,

whereas "incidence" refers to the annual number of people who have a case of the condition.

IMD Health Domain

The most deprived

area in terms of this

index in the context

of the County is the

area to the south of

Blacon Lodge Ward

transected by

Blacon Point Road.

This domain identifies areas with relatively high rates of people who die prematurely or whose quality of life is impaired by poor health or who are disabled across the whole

population.

The "prevalence" of a condition means

the number of people who currently have the condition, whereas "incidence"

refers to the annual number of people who

Health

refers to the annual number of people who have a case of the condition.

• blood pressure and blood cholesterol concentrations usually rise, increasing the risk of heart attacks and strokes;

• insulin resistance increases and glucose tolerance declines, increasing the risk of diabetes;

• intravascular pressure rises increasing the risk of

Health and Old Age

• intravascular pressure rises increasing the risk of glaucoma and visual loss;

• immune function deteriorates increasing the risk of infections and cancers;

• loss of bone mass increases the risk of fracture;

• nerve degeneration increases the risk of loss of cognitive function and dementia;

• cartilage degeneration predisposes to arthritis; and

• muscle loss leads to reduced strength.

Health Prevalence Data 01/02 – 05/06Chester MLSOA

Source: North West Health Observatory

Health Incidence Data 01/02 – 05/06Chester MLSOA


Health Incidence/Prevalence Data Chester MLSOA


Prevalence - Average of common old age diseases by MLSOA in

Chester

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Incidence - Average of common old age diseases by MLSOA in

Chester

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Ches

ter 0

01C

heste

r 002

Ches

ter 0

03C

heste

r 004

Che

ster

005

Ches

ter 0

06C

heste

r 007

Ches

ter 0

08C

heste

r 009

Ches

ter 0

10C

heste

r 011

Ches

ter 0

12C

heste

r 013

Ches

ter 0

14C

hest

er 0

15C

heste

r 016

Ches

ter 0

17

0

Ches

ter 0

01C

heste

r 002

Ches

ter 0

03C

heste

r 004

Ches

ter 0

05C

heste

r 006

Ches

ter 0

07C

heste

r 008

Ches

ter 0

09C

heste

r 010

Ches

ter 0

11C

heste

r 012

Ches

ter 0

13C

heste

r 014

Ches

ter 0

15C

heste

r 016

Ches

ter 0

17

KEY

Blacon

Other Chester MLSOA

Health Prevalence Data Chester MLSOA


Average Prevalence

COPD

Diabetes Acute Respiratory

Coronary

Heart Disease

Arthroses of

the Hip

Cardiovascular Disease

Incapacity Benefit (IB) is paid to people who are incapable of work because of sickness or disability. It replaced Sickness Benefit and Invalidity Benefit in 1995. There are three rates of IB.

Short-term IB • Short-term IB at the lower rate is paid to people who do not get

Statutory Sick Pay and have been sick for at least four days in a row, or who qualify under special rules for young people. Short-term IB at the higher rate is paid to people who have been sick for more than 28 weeks and less than 52 weeks.

Long-term IB

Incapacity Benefit

Long-term IB Long-term IB is paid to those who have been sick for over 52 weeks.

Severe Disablement Allowance (SDA) Severe Disablement Allowance (SDA) is paid to people aged 16 to 65 who have been unable to work for at least 28 weeks in a row because of illness or disability, and are unable to get Incapacity Benefit (IB) because they have not paid enough National Insurance (NI) contributions. People who have never been able to work may also be entitled to SDA.

Incapacity Benefit

The table below displays the distribution of incapacity benefit claimants by LSOA

and provides percentage counts of these claimants based on total population. LSOA

8317 (Blacon Point Road) has significantly more residents who are claiming benefit,

whilst three area have relatively low claimant levels (below 6%).

Summary

Summary data

Challenges and Further Research

Re alignment - Joined up service delivery model - Increasing pressure

• Increasing older population – review sheltered housing provision.

• Increasing pressure on local services.

• Engaging voluntary organisations (Age concern etc).

Challenges

• Re alignment of service from younger to older ?

• Mobile service provision (larger elderly cohort with physically limited access to services).

• Joined up service delivery model

• Detailed health profile

• Analysis of GP list

• Detailed consultation with all RSL in area particularly those providing sheltered

accommodation what are the current demand on the properties.

• Detailed analysis of perception data (CDHT Status survey and local level analysis of

the Place Survey),

Further Research

the Place Survey),

• Analysis of voids – can they be converted to sheltered accommodation.

• Detailed youth profile – accessing data from the Child Index in order to assess the

balance of provision.

• Consultation locally and at County level with Adult social services providers.

• Undertake a detailed population survey of the area to define a true population count.

From: JONES, Reggie (Councillor) [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: 02 August 2009 12:58 To: Jessica Metheringham Cc: NELSON, Marie (Councillor) Subject: Cheshire West & Chester - Ward Boundaries

Jessica Metheringham Boundary Committee for England Trevalyan House, Great Peter Street, London SW1 2HW 1st August 2009 Dear Jessica, Re: Cheshire West and Chester Ward Boundary Review 2009 We are writing to express our opposition to the Cheshire West and Chester Ward Boundary Review proposals for 2009. We support the principle of Single Member Wards for the geographical area covered by the authority, unless exceptional circumstances can be demonstrated. Whilst not wishing to comment on the majority of the proposals, it is our belief that the proposals for Blacon lack an understanding of the current local area working and community cohesion that has been developed during the lifetime of the Governments Neighbourhood Management Pathfinder and the emerging Alliance successor organisation. If implemented they would divide the community and create uncertainty and confusion. We believe there are exceptional circumstances and the best option for Blacon is a Multi-Member Ward of 3 Councillors, based on the current boundaries. In no particular order (and not an exhaustive list), our reasons for Blacon having a strong case for a 3 Member Ward are;

The geographical boundaries of Blacon, provide a strong sense of place and community belonging. These boundaries create a natural community of interest.

Residents and organisations living and working in Blacon do not recognise a natural affinity between Blacon and Sealand. Sealand residents do not e.g send their children to Blacon schools or use Blacon shops. They are separate communities and have their own unique characteristics. This was reflected in the decision to delete Sealand as part of Blacon during a previous boundary review.

The 2001 census figures provide us with a circa 13,000 plus population, when measured against the 2008 figures there seems to be a big drop in population, This may be short of the optimum ward size, however these people are still in Blacon and still provide a number of social challenges, which is reflected in the IMD figures for Blacon. Chester & District Housing Association have completed studies that suggest there is currently a significant underestimate of the numbers of people living in Blacon. Using CDHT data, they have estimated that the population could be 22% higher than the Office of National Statistics figures. We are attaching reference material for this work, as this should not be ignored.

The IMD figures provide a valuable indicator for the additionality of resource allocation into a defined area of Blacon. This funding could be diluted with the creation of a revised Sealand Boundary, that divides Blacon.

The Neighbourhood Pathfinder which ended in March 2009 has been succeeded by the creation of a Blacon Alliance that is committed to continuing to develop the sophisticated network of Key Partnership Groups (KPGs) that now exist in Blacon. These KPGs are thematic, cross cutting and are led by residents from the Blacon community. The Alliance has a 3 staged approach to delivery. (1). A Foundation stage that has gained partnership agreement to work together in Blacon. (2). We are currently at the stage of integrating the service delivery plans across, Health, Education, Youth Services, Older Persons, Economy & Enterprise, Cleaner Safer and

Greener and Image & Infrastructure. (3). The third stage is aimed at convincing the local authority and partners to devolve ownership of assets and their management.

The Local Community Forum works closely with the resident led 'One Voice for Blacon', which is a non political forum for local issues to be discussed.

The proposals are contrary to the risks identified by Cheshire West & Chester in its report to Councillors dated 23rd July.

The proposals are not co-terminus with the defined Community Forum Areas in the emerging local area working programme. Indeed the Chief Executive of the PCT Helen Bellairs praised Blacon as "being the most organised community that she deals with" at a meeting of the Blacon Community Forum held on the 29th July.

Residents at the Blacon Community Forum held on the 29th July, unanimously agreed to oppose the current proposals as being divisive and not reflective of our community.

We would urge you to give serious consideration to recognising that behind the numbers are people and their communities. The current proposals create unnecessary divisions. The ability of local people to be effectively represented, will be compromised if the review fails to ensure the representation of genuine communities, is robust and genuine. Adequate representation, based on a narrow numeric formula will fall short of the principle that representation in Blacon should reflect a real community of genuine interest. We hope that these comments will be taken into account and that we might have the opportunity to express our views further at some stage in the future. Yours sincerely, Cllr Reggie Jones Cllr Marie Nelson Blacon Ward Councillors, Cheshire West & Chester Hard Copies to follow in the post. ************************************************************************ Note: This E-Mail is intended for the addressee only and may include confidential information. Unauthorised recipients are requested to please advise the sender immediately by telephone and then delete the message without copying or storing it or disclosing its contents to any other person. We have taken all reasonable precautions to ensure that no viruses are transmitted from the Authority to any third party. Copyright in this e-mail and attachments created by us unless stated to the contrary belongs to the Council. Any liability (in negligence or otherwise) arising from any party acting, or refraining from acting on any information contained in this e mail is hereby excluded. Should you communicate with anyone at the Council by e-mail, you consent to us monitoring and reading any such correspondence. Printing this email? Please think environmentally and only print when essential! ************************************************************************

From: TATE, Alex (Councillor) [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: 03 August 2009 19:26 To: Jessica Metheringham Cc:

Subject: Single Member Wards

Jessica, I am one of three Cheshire West and Chester members for the ward of Blacon, Chester. Before LGR, Blacon was a ward with seven councillors, one Cheshire County councillor for the whole ward, 3 Chester City councillors for Blacon Lodge and three for Blacon Hall. Blacon has a natural boundary making it effectively an independent community, universally recognized with recent visits by Government ministers and even Prince Charles a few months ago. All recognizing the special nature of the strong community cohesion of Blacon. The Cheshire West and Chester proposal is for Blacon to become a two member ward with a dividing line removing the whole of the southern part to be joined with a part of Sealand, (currently part of an entirely different ward of Chester). This will form a completely new entity and effectively separate this area from the rest of Blacon. Separate representation for this section of the community will serve only to create disharmony and disarray. The residents will be alienated by the separation and will not wish to recognize the artificial boundary separating them from their fellow residents. In all likelihood, they are likely to continue to address any issues they may have to the councillors of their current ward of Blacon with which they identify. There are additional major factors which should be taken into account. The special circumstances of Blacon with it’s high level of multi deprivation (top 10% of Uk) mean that there is an extremely high level of resident contact with elected members and considerable consequent required action by the members. This factor alone, when taken into account, would justify a lower elector ratio than the applied formula. Additionally, it is recognized, again due to the high deprivation nature of Blacon, that there is a higher number of non registration of voters in the ward. It is estimated to be 1-2 K in number, which would bring the current voter register to 10 – 11k. Applying the current formula to this figure would certainly prove a need for three members to represent the residents. The People and Places submission to the Cheshire (Structural Changes) Order 2008, was accepted by the Secretary of State as a basis for the efficient delivery of local government in Cheshire and included the creation of single member wards. This People and Places submission clearly states ‘both authorities will quickly explore the range of options available and with the help of the Boundary Committee for England, will adopt single member wards’ (People Places, page 5) Single member wards have an easily recognized and clearly defined relationship between the elected member and the individuals they represent. Three single member wards for the undivided community of Blacon would allow the electors to remain within an identified community and elected members to be strong community leaders. I would hope that the Committee will have consideration for the people who form the community of Blacon and will be minded to allow it to remain a vibrant, cohesive and undivided fellowship of

residents. Three members being many less that the representation which the community had before LGR, it surely should be the minimum representation for our residents. Regards Alex

Councillor Alex Tate

Blacon Ward, Cheshire West and Chester

From: THOMPSON, Robert (Councillor) [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: 26 July 2009 11:05 To: Reviews@ Subject: CHESHIRE WEST AND CHESTER BOROUGH COUNCIL

Dear Sir or Madam, I am writing to submit my views on the issue of single member or multi-member wards for the 2011 borough council elections. The original submission on LGR made it clear that the preference was for single member wards and that was what each of the then district councils and indeed each of the political parties signed off on. To change policy now would not be true to the process and would reverse one of the key drivers for supporting the formation of the new unitary. I understand Cheshire West and Chester Borough Council have submitted to yourselves a case for multi-member wards. You will appreciate that this submission actually represents only the view of the ruling Conservative administration and not that of either the Labour or the Liberal Democrats parties. Multi-member wards provide the opportunity for one party to gain the two or three councillors with a low turnout. This does not strike me as a fair voting system. 2 or 3 member wards can provide the opportunity for 1 councillor to do all the work and the others to do little but hide behind the protective shield of the worker! Single member wards provide exposure, clarity and transparent accountability. Please keep to the original plan and establish single member wards. Otherwise please initiate a consultation process to establish a fair voting system such as proportional representation to ensure every vote counts the number of councillors reflects the wishes of the electorate. Regards, Councillor Bob Thompson Hoole & Newton Ward

:

Sent: 22 July 2009 10:00 To: Jessica Metheringham Subject:

Dear Jessica,

I sincerely hope the decission of the boudary committee will be for "single member wards".

In the short space of time since we in Winsford became part of C W A C, residents have reported to me they have noticed a general reduction in local services.

Regards,

Cllr Des Worthington.

Documents

My submission to the Boundary Commission on the proposals ......From: DONOVAN, Paul (Councillor) [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: 02 August 2009 21:00 To: