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PREPARED WITH AN EPA DISCUSSION OR BRIEFING IN MIND. Why Are We Pushing for Aggressive Federal Rules to Reduce National/Regional NOx, SO2 and Hg Emissions?. NACAA Board Meeting July 31 to August 2, 2010. Six Highest Priority Categories. Multi-Pollutant Sector-Based Controls. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Why Are We Pushing for AggressiveFederal Rules to Reduce National/Regional
NOx, SO2 and Hg Emissions?
NACAA Board Meeting
July 31 to August 2, 2010
PREPARED WITH AN EPA
DISCUSSION OR BRIEFING IN MIND
2
Six Highest Priority Categories
• The Priority Sectors– EGUs– Tougher On-Road
Standards (NOx and VOC)
– ICI Boilers– Cement Kilns– Marine Engines– Locomotives
• “A+” level of controls• Why? … What’s Our
Logic?
Multi-Pollutant Sector-Based Controls
3
Understanding How Transport Really Works
• Every bad ozone day, in the morning hours, a large cloud or reservoir of ozone sits above Maryland and the Mid-Atlantic area waiting to mix down.
– Based upon real, measured data– Ozone levels in the reservoir are
routinely measured at 60 to 100 ppb.– In the morning, ozone levels at the
surface are very low (10 to 20 ppb).• Around 10:00 or 11:00 – when the
nocturnal inversion breaks down - the ozone (and any precursors) in the reservoir mix down to the surface and degrade air quality.
• Every bad ozone day, in the morning hours, a large cloud or reservoir of ozone sits above Maryland and the Mid-Atlantic area waiting to mix down.
– Based upon real, measured data– Ozone levels in the reservoir are
routinely measured at 60 to 100 ppb.– In the morning, ozone levels at the
surface are very low (10 to 20 ppb).• Around 10:00 or 11:00 – when the
nocturnal inversion breaks down - the ozone (and any precursors) in the reservoir mix down to the surface and degrade air quality.0
3000
6000
9000
12000
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105
Ozone (ppb)
He
igh
t (f
t)
Incoming OzoneAugust 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT)
Beltsville, MDGood Moderate Unhealthy for
Sensitive GroupsUnhealthy
Residual Layerfrom 1500 – 6000 ft
of 110 ppb110 ppb
Ozone-reduced surface layer
<< 40 ppb40 ppb
Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105
Ozone (ppb)
He
igh
t (f
t)
Incoming OzoneAugust 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT)
Beltsville, MDGood Moderate Unhealthy for
Sensitive GroupsUnhealthyGood Moderate Unhealthy for
Sensitive GroupsUnhealthy
Residual Layerfrom 1500 – 6000 ft
of 110 ppb110 ppb
Ozone-reduced surface layer
<< 40 ppb40 ppb
Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University
Residual Layerfrom 1500 – 6000 ft
of 110 ppb110 ppb
Ozone-reduced surface layer
<< 40 ppb40 ppb
Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University
Ozone as an Example
The Transport Cloud ... or the Elevated Ozone ReservoirCould the
reservoir be much larger ???
4
The Transport CloudA Regional Cloud of Pollution - Crashing Down to Earth
Measured ozone at aloft monitors
in the 60 to 90 ppb range all
night long
All monitors, ground level and aloft, record ozone levels that are almost identical to what
was measured all night long at the aloft monitors
5
How Do We Reduce the Transport Cloud?
• The NOx SIP Call as an example– OTAG collaboration in late 90’s
– EPA finalizes SIP Call in 1998
– Very significant regional NOx reductions across the East in the 2003/2004 timeframe
– Dramatic drops in ozone levels
• Similar story for SO2 controls and PM
• The NOx SIP Call as an example– OTAG collaboration in late 90’s
– EPA finalizes SIP Call in 1998
– Very significant regional NOx reductions across the East in the 2003/2004 timeframe
– Dramatic drops in ozone levels
• Similar story for SO2 controls and PM
6
55.5%of Units
22.3%of Units
2 1 25
18
23
77
50
13
8
30
15
62 2
2 3 5 10
28
51
128
178191
199
229
244250 252 254
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1995 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250Number of Units
Cumulative Total Units
Controls From the NOx SIP Call
Phase I
Minimal SCR UnitsExpect Minimal NOx
Reductions
Phase II
Large Number of SCR Units InstalledExpect SIGNIFIANT NOx Reductions
Especially after 2003-2004Air Quality
should decrease dramaticallyData courtesy of The Institute of Clean Air Companies (ICAC).
77.8% of Units Installedbetween 2003-2007 Scheduled Startup Units
7
Regional NOx Emission Reductions
1.92
1.22
0.59 0.520.38
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1990 2000 2005 2008 2009
Year
Ozo
ne
Sea
son
NO
X (
mil
lio
n t
on
s) .
• Dramatic regional NOx emission reductions in the 2003/2004 time frame
• NOx reductions from Tier II/LEV II standards also – very gradually - occurring in this same period
• Dramatic regional NOx emission reductions in the 2003/2004 time frame
• NOx reductions from Tier II/LEV II standards also – very gradually - occurring in this same period
NOx Reductions at NOx Budget Program Sources
Thanks: EPA Clean Air Markets
8
Reducing O3 in the Transport Cloud
Average ozone levels in the elevated
reservoir before 2004
Average ozone levels in the elevated
reservoir after 2004
9
Maryland's 1-Hour Ozone Design Value per Year
100
120
140
160
180
200
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
1-H
our
Ozo
ne D
esig
n V
alue
(pp
b)
1-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb) 1-Hour Ozone Standard (125 ppb)
Maryland’s 1-Hour Ozone Design Value per Year
10
Maryland’s 8-Hour Ozone Design Value per YearMaryland's 8-Hour Ozone Design Value per Year
60
80
100
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
8-H
our
Ozo
ne D
esig
n V
alue
(pp
b)
8-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb) 8-Hour Ozone Standard (85 ppb)8-Hour Ozone Standard (75 ppb)
11
Very Preliminary Ozone Modeling
• Very rough, preliminary OTC “Screening” modeling – Thanks to NYDEC
• From a 2007 Base• Three scenarios
– 50% NOx and 30% VOC cuts across all states and all sectors in domain
– 70% NOx and 30% VOC cuts across all states and all sectors in domain
– Federal Measures “Plus” Run• Tried to mimic federal rules and local
controls being targeted by OTC– “Top 6” Federal Measures across
domain » 65% cut to stationary NOx» 75% cut to on-road mobile NOx
(includes post-2007 Tier II benefits)
» 35% cut to area NOx» 30% VOC» In total about a 55% NOx and
30% VOC run– Additional 5% NOx in all OTC states
12
Results – Toughest Monitors in the EastNON
ATTAINMENT AREAS
Monitored Design Value
After
50% NOx & 30% VOC Run
After
70% NOx & 30% VOC Run
After
Federal Measures “+“ Run
New York
- Bayonne 85 81 74 78
- NYC/Queens 77 72 67 69
Philadelphia
- Camden 88 75 65 68
- Bristol 90 76 64 67
Cleveland/A/L
-Mayfield 79 74 64 71
-Eastlake 79 72 62 69
Columbus
- Albany HS 84 71 62 67
Washington
- River Terrace 83 70 59 62
Baltimore
- Edgewood 91 68 55 59
Getting closer …But still more to do.
Majority of monitors < 65ppb
13
Reducing Regional NOx
Emissions WorksThe 6 Priority Categories Represent
About 75% of the NOx Left to Regulate
14
The Fine Particle/SO2 Story• Similar to Ozone
– Regional reservoir of SO2 and PM dominates the East’s problem– Summertime SO2 “westerly” transport dominates Mid-Atlantic PM
levels and acts pretty much like Ozone for westerly transport• However …
– More complex chemistry– Different behavior at night
• Little debate over the regional nature of SO2 piece of the PM problems in the East
15
Eastern State - SO2 Controls
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Controlled Units
• Some controls driven by Title IV• Some controls driven by early CAIR
Source: EPA Clean Air Markets
16
SO2 Emission Reductions
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
East States
National
Thanks: EPA Clean Air Markets
17
Maryland Annual PM2.5 Trends (μg/m3)
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2000-2002
2001-2003
2002-2004
2003-2005
2004-2006
2005-2007
2006-2008
2007-2009
Glen Burnie
Essex
Fair Hill
Edgewood ArmyBase
Rockville
P.G. EquestrianCenter
Hagerstown
South East PoliceStation
Current Annual
Standard
18
Maryland PM2.5 24-Hr Trends (μg/m3)
2527293133353739414345 Davidsonville
Glen BurnieRiviera Beach E.S
Padonia E.S.
EssexFair Hill
Edgewood Army BaseRockville
Blabensburg VFD
HagerstownNorth East P.S.
North West P.S
South East P.S.Fairfield FMC
Old Town FDWestport E.S.
Current Daily
Standard
19
Reducing Regional SO2
Emissions WorksThe 6 Priority Categories Represent
About 85% of the NOx Left to Regulate
20
What Has This Meant to Maryland?
181
135 137
151 152147 143
137126
121
80
120
160
200
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008*
1-H
our
Ozo
ne (
ppb)
1-Hour Ozone
17.1
15.8 15.9
14.5
15.616.215.9
10
14
18
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
Ann
ual P
M2.
5 (u
g/m
3 )
Annual Fine Particulate
41 4139
35
4241
37
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
Dai
ly P
M2.
5 (
ug/m
3 )
30
34
38
42
46Daily Fine Particulate
8-Hour Ozone
110 110106 103
91 94
107 107 104
95 93 91
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
8-H
our
Ozo
ne (
ppb)
60
100
140
*2008 data are preliminary.
21
Just a Little on the Mercury Story
• Another Major Issue to the States– Joint effort between state water
and air programs
• 319 G Process initiated by Northeast states just beginning
• Moving towards 4 State/Federal Partnership efforts– National and local controls– Product stewardship– Global/International efforts– Communications
22
Clearly a National Problem
Thanks: EPA 319G Meeting
23
U.S. Mercury Emissions (2005)
Thanks: EPA 319G Meeting
The 6 Priority Categories
Represent About 75% of the 2005
national Hg emissions
24
So …
• Let’s work together on “A+” Multi-Pollutant control programs for the highest priority sectors– We need to do whatever we can to further reduce regional NOx, SO2
and Mercury emissions– Many lives to be saved
• Again - The Priority Sectors– EGUs– Tougher On-Road Tailpipe Standards (NOx and VOC)– ICI Boilers– Cement Kilns– Marine Engines– Locomotives
• These categories represent– About 85% of the SO2 that is left to regulate– About 75% of the NOx that is left to regulate and – About 75% of the 2005 national mercury emissions
25
Benefits
• Many lives to be saved– EPA has estimated the improvements
in public health resulting from just the 2004 NOx SIP Call
• Up to 1800 lives saved through 2008
• Significant health benefits to asthmatics and other individuals with lung disease
• Dramatically help states with old and new Ozone, PM, NO2 and SO2 SIPs
• Multiple other benefits– Haze/Visibility, Chesapeake Bay,
Mercury, other toxics, etc.
26
Next Steps? Consider a NACAA resolution or
letter?? Have appropriate NACAA
Committees develop recommendations on what “A+ Multi-Pollutant Controls” means for 6 priority categories?– Include EPA?– Build from earlier NACAA work and
other information• LEV III• CARB analyses of Locomotives and
Marine Engines and• LADCO/OTC work on EGUs and ICI
Boilers.
? Push for earlier state involvement in national rules as co-regulators?
• Discussion