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NADIR – Focus Area V:Forecasting Geomagnetic Activity
MURI All-Hands Meeting, Boulder, CO, October, 21-22, 2008
David Falconer University of Alabama & NASA/MSFC,
Huntsville, AL
Tim Fuller-Rowell University of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, CO
Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, CO
Vic Pizzo NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO
Jimmy Raeder Space Science Center, University of New Hampshire, New Hampshire, NH
Lead Times in Forecasting
Observations Lead time
Heliospheric disturbances at L1 ~30-50 min
Coronal eruptions ~1-3 days
Solar active regions ~3-5 days
Larger Lead Time of Geoeffectivity Predictions
DAY 1 DAY 2 DAY 3 DAY 4
Probabilities of the solar eruption (A%), interplanetary shock (B%), and ejecta (C%), and geo-effectivity (D%) before the actual eruption
Pre-computed scenarios ready if actual eruption happens
EARTH
ACTIVE REGION
EARTH EARTH EARTH
SHOCK SHOCK SHOCK
EJECTA
ACTIVE REGION ACTIVE REGION ACTIVE REGION
Photospheric Magnetic Field CME Probabilistic Model
2006-12-10 2006-12-11 2006-12-12 2006-12-132006-12-09
2006-12-09
CAR=E26S10
PCME = 16%
RCME = 470
VCME = slow
2006-12-10
CAR=E13S10
PCME = 15%
RCME = 490
VCME = slow
2006-12-11
CAR=E00S10
PCME = 13%
RCME = 510
VCME = slow
2006-12-12
CAR=W13S10
PCME = 17%
RCME = 520
VCME = slow
2006-12-13
CAR=W26S10
PCME = 15%
RCME = 500
VCME = slow
CME Probabilistic Model CME Initial Parameters
2006-12-09
CAR=E40S10
PCME = 16%
RCME = 470
Run 1V=1000 km/sR = 200
Run 2V=1000 km/sR = 400
Run 3V=1000 km/sR = 600
Run 4V=1500 km/sR = 200
Run 5V=1500 km/sR = 400
Run 6V=1500 km/sR = 600
Run 7V=2000 km/sR = 200
Run 8V=2000 km/sR = 400
Run 9V=2000 km/sR = 600
CME Initial Parameters ICME Propagation
RUN 7: V = 2000 km/s, R = 200
RUN 4: V = 1500 km/s, R = 200
RUN 1: V = 1000 km/s, R = 200
ICME Propagation Ensemble StudyRUN 2: V = 1000 km/s, R = 400 RUN 3: V = 1000 km/s, R = 600
RUN 5: V = 1500 km/s, R = 400 RUN 6: V = 1500 km/s, R = 600
RUN 8: V = 2000 km/s, R = 400 RUN 9: V = 2000 km/s, R = 600
Ensemble Study Disturbances at Geospace
Ensemble Study Disturbances at Geospace
Ensemble Study All-Clear Conditions
12/09 12/1112/10 12/12 12/14 12/1512/13
SUN-EARTH
Run 1V=1000 km/sR = 200
Run 3V=1000 km/sR = 600
Run 4V=1500 km/sR = 200
Run 5V=1500 km/sR = 400
Run 6V=1500 km/sR = 600
Run 7V=2000 km/sR = 200
Run 8V=2000 km/sR = 400
Run 9V=2000 km/sR = 600
EAST LIMB
WEST LIMB
25% - 50%
50% - 75%
75% -100%
Strength:
Run 2V=1000 km/sR = 400
0% - 25%
Ensemble Studies All-Clear Conditions
12/09 12/1112/10 12/12 12/14 12/1512/13
SUN-EARTH
EAST LIMB
WEST LIMB
25% - 50%
50% - 75%
25% -100%
Strength:
0% - 25%
2009-12-09
12:00Run1 Run2 Run3Run4 Run5 Run6Run7 Run8 Run9
2009-12-11
12:00Run1 Run2 Run3Run4 Run5 Run6Run7 Run8 Run9
2009-12-10
12:00Run1 Run2 Run3Run4 Run5 Run6Run7 Run8 Run9
All-Clear Conditions Probabilistic Forecast
12/09 12/1112/10 12/12 12/14 12/1512/13
25% - 50 %0% - 25 % 25% - 50 % 25% - 50 %Probability:
Based on Observations of 2006-12-09 12:00 UT
12/09
12/10
12/11
12/12
12/13
Date of Disturbance at Earth
Dat
e of
Eru
ptio
n at
Sun
Eruption Observed Prediction of ICME ParametersLead Time ~ 1-2 days
Computational System at Univ. New Hampshire
• Meerkat: cluster of 40 PlayStation 3 game consoles
• Cluster is controlled from a quad-processor head node
• OpenGGCM has beedn ported to the cluster; runs > 5 times faster than on Opteron 246 nodes Zaphod cluster
• ENLIL has been ported on quad-processor head node; runs > 5 times faster than on devmoels-01 at SWPC
Solar Wind Velocity – Messenger/Mercury Flyby
Solar Wind Predictions – Streams at Earth
ENLIL-OpenGGCM: Shock Interaction with MagnetosphereWork in progress..