NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey by Quartermedia01.commpartners.com/NAM/041918/NFIB Small...Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar Employment Situation,

Revised April 17, 2018

56.6%

61.7% 61.0%

77.8%

93.3%

89.5% 89.8%

94.6% 93.5%

2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1

NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey by Quarter(First Quarter 2016 – First Quarter 2018)

Source: NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey

Note: Percentage of respondents who characterized the current business outlook as somewhat or very positive.

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1

Expected Manufacturing Growth Over Next 12 Months(First Quarter 2016 – First Quarter 2018)

Sales Exports Capital Investments Full-Time Employment

Avg. 12-Month Growth Rates Sales: ↑ 5.7%

Exports: ↑ 1.2%Capital Investments: ↑ 3.9%

Full-Time Employment: ↑ 2.9%


Note: Expected growth rates are annual averages.

5.5%

5.7%

12.0%

15.0%

18.8%

64.6%

68.8%

74.7%

Weaker global growth and slower export sales

Challenges with access to capital

Weaker domestic economy and sales for our products

Strengthened U.S. dollar relative to other currencies

Unfavorable business climate (e.g., taxes, regulations)

Rising raw material costs for our products

Rising health care/insurance costs

Attracting and retaining a quality workforce

Primary Current Business Challenges(First Quarter 2018)


Note: Respondents were able to check all that apply. Therefore, responses exceed 100 percent.

-1.4%

-1.0%

-0.6%

-0.2%

0.2%

0.6%

1.0%

1.4%

1.8%

2.2%

2.6%

Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar

Percentage Changes in Manufacturing Production(January 2017 – March 2018)

Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods

Source: Federal Reserve Board

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%


Year-Over-Year Industrial Production Growth(January 2017 – March 2018)

Industrial Production Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods

Source: Federal Reserve Board

259

200

73

175

155

239

190

221

14

271

216

175 176

326

103

18 2110 10

414

-4

39

6

20 3039

2032

22


Monthly Changes in Employment(January 2017 – March 2018, in Thousands of Employees)

Nonfarm Payrolls Manufacturing

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

4.0%

4.1%

4.2%

4.3%

4.4%

4.5%

4.6%

4.7%

4.8%

4.9%

12.30

12.32

12.34

12.36

12.38

12.40

12.42

12.44

12.46

12.48

12.50

12.52

12.54

12.56

12.58

12.60

12.62

12.64


Employment Situation, January 2017 – March 2018

Manufacturing Employment Unemployment Rate

Millions of Workers Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

1.2%

3.1%3.2%

2.9%

2.5%

3.5%

3.0%

2.8%

2017:I II III IV 2018:I II III IV

Real Gross Domestic Product(Chained 2009 Dollars)

Real GDP Forecast:

↑ 2.3% (2017)

↑ 3.0% (2018)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NAM calculations using Moody’s Analytics simulation model

NFIB SMALL BUSINESS

ECONOMIC TRENDS

11

Thursday, April 19, 2018Washington, D.C.

Small Business Optimism IndexBased on 10 Survey Indicators

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

76

79

82

85

88

91

94

97

00

03

06

09

12

15

18

Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Feb., Mar.)

Outlook for General Business ConditionsNet Percent (“Better” minus “Worse”) Six Months from Now

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

74

77

80

83

86

89

92

95

98

01

04

07

10

13

16


Ne

t P

erc

en

t of

Fir

ms

Percent of Firms Reporting Taxes as Their #1 Business Problem

5

10

15

20

25

30

74

77

80

83

86

89

92

95

98

01

04

07

10

13

16

Quarterly (Jan., Apr., July, Oct.) Monthly data (Feb., Mar.)

Perc

en

t of

Fir

ms

Percent of Firms Reporting Labor Quality as Their #1 Business Problem

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

74

77

80

83

86

89

92

95

98

01

04

07

10

13

16

Quarterly (Jan., Apr., July, Oct.) Monthly data (Feb., Mar.)

Perc

ent

of

Firm

s

Unfilled Job OpeningsPercent with at Least One Unfilled Opening

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

76

79

82

85

88

91

94

97

00

03

06

09

12

15

18


Perc

ent

of

Firm

s

Job Creation PlansNet Percent (“Increase” minus “Decrease”) in Next Three Months

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

76

79

82

85

88

91

94

97

00

03

06

09

12

15

18


Ne

t P

erc

en

t of

Fir

ms

Changes in Prices and Labor CompensationNet Percent (“Higher” minus “Lower”) Compared to Three Months Ago

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

84

87

90

93

96

99

02

05

08

11

14

17

Compensation Raised Prices

Perc

ent

of

Firm

s

Quarterly data plus Feb. & Mar.

Actual Earnings ChangesNet Percent (“Higher” minus “Lower”) the Last

Three Months Compared to the Prior Three Months

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

76

79

82

85

88

91

94

97

00

03

06

09

12

15

18


Perc

ent

of

Firm

s

Planned Capital OutlaysPercent Planning to Make a Capital Expenditure in the Last Six

Months

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

77

80

83

86

89

92

95

98

01

04

07

10

13

16


Perc

ent

of

Firm

s

Sales ExpectationsNet Percent (“Higher” minus “Lower”) in the

Next Three Months

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

76

79

82

85

88

91

94

97

00

03

06

09

12

15

18


Pe

rce

nt

of

Firm

s

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

77

80

83

86

89

92

95

98

01

04

07

10

13

16


Perc

ent

of

Firm

s

Actual Sales ChangesNet Percent (“Higher” minus “Lower”) the Last

Three Months Compared to the Prior Three Months

Relative Interest Rate Paid by Regular Borrowers

Net Percent (“Higher” Minus “Lower”) Compared to Three Months Ago

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

76

79

82

85

88

91

94

97

00

03

06

09

12

15

18


Perc

ent

of

Firm

s

Documents

NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey by Quartermedia01.commpartners.com/NAM/041918/NFIB Small...Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar Employment Situation,