NAME TIER I FORECASTING – SUMMER 2003

Prepared by: Bob Maddox, Univ of AZWith Inputs From:

Pat Holbrook, NWS TUSErik Pytlak, NWS TUS

Art Douglas, Creighton Univ

Art Douglas, Erik Pytlak, and myself were the fomenters of this practice exercise and I have excluded the three of us from the following summations.

There were 18 participating individuals and forecasters at SMN contributing to the following statistics.

Note that there were no fixed schedules or assignments and individuals were asked to input forecasts as their interest and work schedules allowed.

THE PRACTICE FORECAST EXERCISE SUMMER 2003

ORGANIZATION/AFFILIATION OF FORECASTERS

NWS Forecasters 10 SMN 6-10

(individuals not specifically identified, so that SMN is "counted" as 1 participant)

NCEP Centers 4Private/retired 2University students 2

THE NAME PRACTICE FORECAST EXERCISE 2004

There was a general NAME Tier 1 forecast discussion posted each day from July 16 through August 30.

Forecasters providing these discussions were identified by name. Discussions were provided by:

Mike Bodner (NCEP HPC) Art Douglas (Creighton University) and several SMN

forecasters Kerry Jones (NWS ABQ)

Bob Maddox (University of Arizona) Erik Pytlak (NWS TUS) Jon Racy (NCEP SPC).

FF: Cold Front (Frente Fr’o) either eastward-moving or backdoor - SMN numbered - NONE 2003

WV: Westerly short wave trough or cutoff Associated with the polar westerlies - Peak vorticity above 700mb - General eastward motion or stationary - FOC numbered

C/IV: Cyclone and/or inverted trough - Westward-moving or stationary upper level system - Peak vorticity above 700mb - FOC numbered

DIF: Pronounced upper-level (above 300 mb) difluence - Not numbered

GS: Gulf of California surge (detected at either Yuma or Guaymas surface observations) - 24hr surface dewpoint change 10F or more - Surface dewpoint rises above 72F - Surface dewpoint remains above 65F for at least 36hrs - 24hr increase in southerly surface winds of 8 kts (4 m/s) or more - 24hr temp decrease 5F or more - 24hr increase in surface pressure of 3mb or more - FOC numbered – NONE WERE NUMBERED IN 2003

NAME FORECASTING FEATURES

WT: Tropical Wave (Onda Tropical) – Low-level trough line with peak vorticity at or below 700mb - Generally westward-moving - Numbered by SMN

TC: Tropical Cyclone - Includes tropical depression, tropical storm, and hurricane - Numbered/Named by TPC

TJ: Tropical easterly jet max - Distinct easterly jet at 200mb - Usually found far south of the subtropical high (central or southern Mexico) -Speed max 35kts or greater - Not numbered

ITCZ: InterTropical Convergence Zone - Self Explanatory Shown on SMN daily features chart

SC: Surface moisture convergence boundary - Including dry lines and orographically-induced convergence lines - Not numbered

NAME FORECASTING FEATURES

There was a daily (there were 46 potential forecast days) QPF forecast exercise for 9 different zones within NAME Tier 1.

Participants were assigned a forecaster number and a password

Sign up details were handled by Jose Meitin of JOSS.

Twenty-four individuals signed up with Jose and were assigned forecaster ID numbers.

Some never made any forecasts and thus don't show up in the Zone Forecast matrix at the JOSS web page

DATE WET ZONES FEATURES

7-17 5 7 8 9 Claudette

7-23 6 7 8 C/IV DIF

7-24 2 4 8 C/IV DIF

7-25 2 4 7 C/IV DIF

7-29 1 4 9 C/IV TD

7-31 4 7 8 C/IV TD

8-22 4 6 7 Ignacio DIF

8-23 6 7 8 Ignacio

WETTEST DAYS ACROSS TIER I BY ZONENorth Zones (1,2,3,4,5) Cat 3 or 4

South Zones (6,7,8,9) Cat 4DAILY AVE PRECIP – CAT 3 >4 to 8mm CAT 4 >8mm

DATE OBS AVE CAT FORECAST AVE CAT

7-17 4.0 2.1

7-23 4.0 2.5

7-24 3.3 2.8

7-25 3.7 2.9

7-29 3.7 2.3

7-31 4.0 2.8

8-22 3.7 3.0

8-23 4.0 3.2

FORECASTS FOR WETTEST DAYS ACROSS TIER I

Average Precip Categories Cat 1 <1 mm, Cat 2 1 to 4 mm, Cat 3 >4 to 8mm, Cat 4 >8mm

NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS AND TOTAL NUMBER OF FORECASTS MADE BY ORGANIZATION

Organization Participants Total forecasts from Organization

SMN Mexico City 6-10 28 ABQ - Southern Region 5 29

NCEP 4 21

PUB - Central Region 2 19

University AZ Students 2 17

TUS - Western Region 1 19

LAS - Western Region 1 5

PHX - Western Region 1 13

Vaisala 1 32

Retired 1 42

NUMBER OF FORECASTS MADE BY INDIVIDUAL PARTICIPANTS

>/= 40 1

>/= 30 < 40 1

>/= 20 <30 1

>/= 10 <20 6

< 10 10

ONLY A FEW INDIVIDUALS MADE A MEANINGFUL NUMBER OF PRACTICE FORECASTS !!!