Nash Notebook Unit 3

8/12/2019 Nash Notebook Unit 3

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Notes fromNash: Unit 3 Globalisationand

Internationalism,and GlobalConflict

2011

Stephen Treloar


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Contents of Table

Area of Study 1: Global Conflict .............................................................................................................. 3

Globalisation ....................................................................................................................................... 3

TNCs and Globalisation ....................................................................................................................... 5

Globalisation & Internationalism ........................................................................................................ 5

Globalisation and Internationalism The effects on trade ............................................................ 7

McDonalds Theory of Peace .......................................................................................................... 7

Globalisation and Internationalism Effects on national sovereignty ........................................... 8

Globalisation and Internationalism Effects on environment ....................................................... 8

IMF, WTO, World Bank, UN .......................................................................................................... 12Millennium Development Goals (MDG)........................................................................................ 14

Examples for Area of Study 1, Unit 3 ............................................................................................ 15

Area of Study 2: Global Conflict ............................................................................................................ 17

The Causes and Nature of Conflict Phase 1 ............................................................................... 20

Phase 1 Conflicts ............................................................................................................................... 20

Iraq First Gulf War ...................................................................................................................... 20

Somalia & Rwanda ........................................................................................................................ 22

Chechnya ....................................................................................................................................... 23

Conflict in Balkans ......................................................................................................................... 24

Phase 2 Conflicts ............................................................................................................................... 25

Beirut 23 October 1983 .............................................................................................................. 25

Somalia .......................................................................................................................................... 25

Bin Ladens Grievances ................................................................................................................. 25

September 11 th 2001 .................................................................................................................... 25

Subsequent War on Terror ........................................................................................................ 26

State Definitions of Terrorism ....................................................................................................... 27

Effectiveness of groups and states in fulfilling objectives ............................................................ 27

Iraq and Afghanistan today ............................................................................................................... 27

Afghanistan ................................................................................................................................... 27

War on Terror ............................................................................................................................... 30

Iraq Synopsis .............................................................................................................................. 33

Factors that US is winning ............................................................................................................. 34Factors that US is losing ................................................................................................................ 34


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Other Terrorist organisations ........................................................................................................... 35

Hezbollah ...................................................................................................................................... 35

Extent of Americas power ................................................................................................................ 36

Limits to Americas power ................................................................................................................ 37

Unit Review ....................................................................................................................................... 37

Define terrorism ............................................................................................................................ 40

Global or International Terrorism ................................................................................................. 40

Views and causes and effects on international terrorism ............................................................ 40

Extent & Limits of US power ......................................................................................................... 41

Success or failure of Objectives ................................................................................................... 42

Glossary ................................................................................................................................................. 44

Table of causes of Phase 1 conflicts .................................................................................................. 44

Area of Study 1: Global Conflict

GlobalisationGlobalisation involves:

Increased mobility of goods

Exchange of services, labour

Movement/interaction of people

Exchange/sharing of ideas/technology/resources

Exchange of capital/money

Cultural interaction/exchange


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TNCs and Globalisation

Who benefits most from TNCs in LEDC?

The TNC, as it can easily acquire the resources needed to make the producto Cheaper labour costs

Workers get income (but exploited!)o Also get skills and technology

Government gets tax, establishment fee Base country economy

Who benefits least?

Workers

o

Pathetic wageso Little to no workers rights

The government, as they become dependent on TNC for economy The environment, lands get destroyed for factories Locals, lands taken, disempowered Corruption for government

How are workers exploited?

Lack of workers rights, eg Worksafe, Insurance, etc

Often paid under minimum wageo Eg. Malaysian factory workers paid $2 per hour to make silicon computer chips

Why does TNC set up in LEDC?

Access to resources not normally found in base countryo Eg. Aluminium for Coca-Cola cans sourced in Australia

Globalisation & Internationalism

Globalisation increases after Cold War

Globalisation includes:

Economy, Trade Culture, people Technology

Globalisation involves:

Increased mobility of goods


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Exchange of services Movement of people Exchange of ideas/tech/resource Cultural interaction

Effects of Globalisation are

Close integration between countries, culture, politics Breaking down of state barriers free trade Sense of global community/global village

Where Globalisation is the engine, Internationalism is the conscience.

Internationalism:

Requires the machinery of Globalisation for it to work. Resolves some problems caused by Globalisation. Aspires for equality and unity Wants shift to multilateralism (many countries working together) over unilateralism (one

state for itself)

Internationalism stresses common humanity beyond national identity.

International organisations include:

United Nations

Red Cross Greenpeace, Kyoto Protocol, etc. World Bank International Monetary Fund

Internationalism is concerned with:

Global Security and Conflict e.g. Nations working together to rid terrorism in Afghanistan Poverty Global Warming

EU & G8 examples of formal internationalism run by states or official organisations

Live 8, Live Aid concerts, informal internationalism run by people

Internationalism promotes multilateralism, not unilateralism


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Globalisation and Internationalism The effects on trade

Tariffs A protection tax on imports to protect local business Tax so imported item costs more than local

Eg. Mercedes Benz cars in Germany cost a great deal less than in Australia (186 830 euro or$258 000, compared to $464 000 in Australia), partly because of the transport costs involved, butalso due to the luxury tax or tariff

Aim of this is to strengthen our eco by protecting local jobs because:

Workers pay tax so our govt can provide services Are consumers so contribute to the functioning of the eco by putting money into it This is how things worked under the old system where national barriers existed to

look after national eco interests

Globalisation has forced the breakdown of these barriers rapidly since the 1990s

In 1980s Hawke/Keating reduced tariffs to increase competitiveness in the global marketplace thatwas to come. Job losses and unemployment followed, but it was the recession we had to have. Inthe long term, our industries were in a great position to deal with the rapid globalisation of the

1990s. Negative consequences

Companies forced off-shore where it is cheaper to make their product or do business.

Eg. Arnotts: sold to Canadian company, Rivers made in China, Qantas: maintenance done inSingapore

Jobs also lost because TNCs dont want to set up in Aus, because labour costs are so high.

Eg. Mitsubishi left Aus because it was in their (a nd shareholders) interest to do so.

McDonalds Theory of Peace If states are trading, no war

Maccas will not set up in a state in war


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Globalisation and Internationalism Effects on national sovereigntyDifference between a State and a Nation

A state governs a territory, that is it has laws, taxes, officials, currency, can run its own politicalsystem, has international relations, and has right to defend borders.

A nation is a collective consciousness; people claiming common bonds, such as history, language andculture. 98% common ethnicity is required to be a nation.

Eg. Palestine is nation, Kurds in Iraq are a nation

How Globalisation and Internationalism affect economic sovereignty of states

With the increase in international trade and TNCs, as well as the rise of capitalism, state-ownedbusinesses have begun to privatise and downsize, impacting on public workers, reducing the taxbase, making the economy more unstable and creating greater unemployment.

United Nations and others have great influence if it feels it needs to intervene, as it did with therebuilding of Afghanistan. As well as having the ability to impose its own economic values, it canpunish nations by imposing trade sanctions, imposing no- fly zones, and freezing state leadersassets, as it has done with Col Gudafi.

FTAs AUSFTA 66% tariffs removed, PBS, FDI, Media

Globalisation and Internationalism Effects on environment

Earth hour 117 nations, started in Aus

Global Warming

With rapid increase of industrial growth, greenhouse gas emissions have increased. Temperature rises

o Eg. in 2003, extreme heat waves caused more than 20,000 deaths in Europe andmore than 1,500 deaths in India.

o In what scientists regard as an alarming sign of events to come, the area of theArctic's perennial polar ice cap is declining at the rate of 9 percent per decade.

o A 2007 study by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California found that theyaverage temperature had risen by about 2 degrees over the past 50 years, and thisincrease was even higher in the urban areas. They believe that this change wascaused mostly by the huge amounts of development going on.

Use of CFC (Chlorofluorocarbons) increased between 1928 through to the 1970s. British scientists find hole in ozone layer over Antarctica in 1985 The UN decided to intervene, with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change, a series of meetings held every year since 1995. The Kyoto Protocol was a product

of these conferences in 1997.


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Kyoto Protocol

Its aim is to reduce global greenhouse emissions. 5.2% from 1990 levels Developed countries should reduce emissions by specified amounts from 1990 levels by

2012: Europe: 8%; US: 7%; Japan 6% No immediate demands on developing countries. Kyoto Protocol entered into force in Oct. 2004 and went into effect in Feb. 2005. 141 countries, accounting for 55% of greenhouse gas emissions, ratified the Protocol. U.S. have signed, but not ratified, the Protocol. Without U.S. support, however, its effectiveness was limited. U.S. emits close to 25% of all greenhouse gases. In 2005, developing countries emissions accounted for approx. 40% of global greenhouse gas

emissions; by 2025, their emissions will exceed those of the developed world.

TNCs, globalisation and the impact on the environment TNCs set up in LEDCs because of the lack of environmental regulation. TNCs value money over a sustainable environment. Yeah. Eg. In 1986 the chemical company DuPont, the largest producer of CFCs (accounting for

one-quarter of global production), had decided to seek substitutes for CFCs. Two yearslater Du Pont announced it would phase out production of CFCs. The shift to CFCsubstitutes did not harm its profits; indeed, in many ways it gave DuPont a competitiveedge as other producers soon followed suit.

Bio-fuels

Are seen to be the answer to carbon emitting fuels. But some bio-fuels do not cut carbon emissions. With greater increase of bio-fuel products, especially amongst poorer states, they do not

have the capacity to grow staple crops.

Carbon Taxes

An alternative framework to Kyoto, which Gillard plans to adopt. Common tax on oil, coal, and gas at rates reflecting emissions when burned. Tax must be high enough to achieve common targets goals

o Household, firms, etc. will theoretically respond by reducing usage --thus, reducingemissions.

Each country keeps tax revenues (vs. giving to another country through system of buyingcarbon credits)

Reduces costs of emission reductions. Avoids contentious issue of setting targets.

Raises revenue --> can be used to stimulate growth.


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Efforts to address exploitation of resources

Indonesia has placed a moratorium on forest clearing.

Soil Degradation

Intense farming has caused 75% of Centr al Americas 20% of Africas, and 11% of Asias agriculturalland to be degraded.

40% all agricultural land is seriously degraded.

Destruction of biodiversity

GM crops reduce biodiversity by being resistant to certain herbicides.

Eg. Monsanto developing a Roundup resistant crop

EUGDP. 14.92

US 14.72

23 member states


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IMF, WTO, World Bank, UN

World Bank

Started in 1944 at the Bretton Woods conference to shape post-war economics.

187 members

The World Banks stated objectives are to:

Strengthen economies and expand markets to increase quality of life, especially for the poor. Invest in health, education and environment, assist with economic reforms Advise on private investment in development projects

Put simply, lends money to poor countries for development projects, such as, water supplysanitation, etc

187 members

US nominate head of WB

US have veto power 17.14%

Criticism

Accused of ignoring local socio-economic factors, as well as being too heavily influenced by richWestern countries, especially USA

E.g. 45% of World Bank lending goes to TNC bidding for overseas contract, 8% goes to primaryeducation, health and water

Pakistan eradicate polio in 2007

International Monetary Fund

Also started in 1944 at the Bretton Woods conference to shape post-war economics

Key objectives are:

Promote international monetary cooperation Facilitate balanced growth of international trade Promote high employment and sustainable economic growth Reduce poverty


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The IMF lends money to 184 member states, provided they accept IMF loan conditions, which ofteninvolve significant economic reform.

E.g. IMF bailout to Indonesia for 1997 currency crisis. Reforms included removing subsidies forstaple items, making life harder for poor. One size fits all policy.

EG 146billion bailout of Greece

The voting power in the IMF is determined by economic strength. US have 17.14%, allowing it toveto all key decisions. Sub-Saharan Africa has 4.43%. G8 has 48.18% of voting power.

Criticisms

One-size-fits-all approach Structured to further economically powerful countries, rather than reduce poverty. Tough and stringent conditions on loans

World Trade Organization

Set up in 1995, 153 signatories in 2008

One state, one vote system

Key aims are to:

Liberalise world trade, AUSFTA Promote economic stability

Define and enforce rules and regs for world trade. 2002 WTO ruled against US in sanctions

The main part of WTO activities is to reduce trade barriers and promote trade growth

E.g. the Doha Round Trade talks sought to remove many trade barriers in developing countries,

potentially $60 billion worth. However, it failed due to developed states protecting theirown economies

Cons

Protesters at The Battle of Seattle, 1999, argued that WTO progresses globalisation at the expenseof democracy.

That the WTO con override laws of member states.

Can remove subsidies. Bluescope lost 1000 Aus workers

The United Nations

UNs primary objective is the maintenance of international peace and security, as well as to maintainfriendly relations amongst nations. 193 members

Aims:


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To keep international peace throughout the world. 1991 1 st Gulf War. Resolution 1973 Libyaodyssey Dawn. Food for oil, embezzlement

To develop friendly relations between nations. Over 30 resolutions blocked re Middle East To make better lives, eliminate poverty, disease and illiteracy, develop rights and freedoms.

WHO AIDS dropped 20% since 2001 To help nations achieve these aims

The UN is divided into six parts:

General Assemblyo Consists of all memberso Each state has a voteo Only recommendations, not binding

Security Councilo Responsible for maintain peace and world ordero Can make decisions, not just recommendationso Five permanent members: US, China, France, Britain and Russiao Ten Rotating members

International Court of Justiceo Aims to settle disputes between stateso All UN states have access

Trusteeship Councilo Helps former colonies to move to independence

Economic and Social council

o Deals with development and social issues. Secretariato Staff of UNo Led by Secretary General, who is elected by General Assembly

There were minimal reforms in September 2005, minimal because the USA watered them down.

Criticisms

National Interests overriding Internationalism

Critics say that the USA uses the UN when it needs it, but otherwise is unilateral.

Eg. Libyan no fly zone

Veto power

Some say that the veto power is more likely to hinder rather than help the Councils work . Onenation's objection, rather than the opinions of a majority of nations, may cripple any possible UNarmed or diplomatic response to a crisis. The r eason for the veto powers existence was so that USSRand USA would even consider sitting at the same table.

Millennium Development Goals (MDG) The best example of globalisation and internationalism working in synthesis.


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Put together by the UN, World Bank, IMF and other global agencies Specific aims are:

o Peace, security and disarmamento Development and poverty eradicationo Protecting the environmento Human Rights, democracy and good governanceo Protecting the vulnerableo Meeting the special needs of Africao Strengthening the UN

Examples for Area of Study 1, Unit 3

Examples of globalisation1. Facebook Revolution in Egypt, Burma. Technology being used to communicate

amongst protestors, presenting a more united front and a more coordinated

protest.

2. Positive: Many news journalists able to broadcast live to the rest of the world fromLibya, Egypt, etc.

3. Positive: Earth Hour, more specifically its ability to be communicated around theglobe.

4. Negative: Christmas Island being at overflowing, due to movement of peoples fromoverseas.

5. McCains, a Canadian company, docking pay for Australian potato farmers by 20%

Examples of internationalism1. Peoples reaction within the state reaction to operation Odyssey Dawn, Nick Clegg, Britain

Deputy PM, fears pacifist backlash from citizens as happened in Iraq.David Cameron insisted it was right to join international operations to stop theinhumanity by helping to oust murderous despot Colonel Muammar Gaddafi.

2. International community trying to stabilise Japanese currency: The G7 nations have agreedto help Japan lower its soaring currency by selling yen, in an effort to aid its disaster-hit

industries.Japan, as a trading nation, relies heavily on export for its GDP, particularly in the IT industry.

3. Positive: International Rescue workers aid in Christchurch from around4. Negative: US ceding responsibility of no fly zone to France, Britain or NATO, protecting own

national interest/image???5. Earth Hour, around the globe, self-sacrifice for environmental change6. UN condemnation of Australias treatment of asylum seekers

Work of the WTO, IMF and/or WB1. IMF Bailouts, $146 billion to Greece, with European Union assistance

2.

The IMFs demands were unpopular during the 1998 Asian financial crisis, receiving criticismfrom the World Bank, and its chief economist, Joseph Stiglitz.


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3. Requiring economic restructuring in NZ economy

Work of the UN

1.

Implementing No fly zone in Libya on 19th

March 2011, through UN Resolution 19732. Pressuring Hosni Mubarak to resign as Egyptian president

Impact of globalisation on international trade, environment, human rights & refugees,technology & communications and politics

International TradeNegative

Domestic companies move offshore

Response of internationalism to impact on international trade, environment, human rights& refugees, technology & communications and politicsG20 summit

Facebook, Internationalism and Globalisation.

The Square Coloured Profile Picture / Facebook Anti-Poverty Event (2011)Happening now at Everywhere!

IMPORTANT! - Invite ALL your friends! Welcome to the Square Coloured Profile Picture /World Anti-Poverty Event... 2011. An event that wants to turn the whole of facebook intocolourful squares on the 24 Of March 2011 to the 1st of April 2011. Let's get this crazestarted. This is the ANTI-POVERTY FACEBOOK MOVEMENT. The goal/purpose of this: To raisethe awareness of poverty to people of all races and cultures. The horrible problem ofpoverty is being faced by millions. Six million children die of hunger every year - 17,000every day. There are over 318 million people experiencing extreme poverty in Africa. Theseare just two of the millions of facts. Here's what you have to do: - Change your profilepicture to a simple solid colour by searching on Google images, e.g. "red square", "bluesquare", "green square". - Tell your friends. If you want to make a real difference

Impact of globalisation and internationalism on state sovereignty

Response of the state to that impact


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Area of Study 2: Global ConflictPost-Cold War:

Fundamental changes can be observed in terms of:

From -Global Security Architecture during the ColdWar

To Aspects of Global Security after the Cold War

bipolarity -near super power parity betweenthe 2 Main super powers US and USSR super power nuclear deterrence balances of power bloc interests and activity Islamic conflict contained within Middle EastconflictChina disconnected from global environment

US dominance as the re maining superpower(hegemon) changes in power blocs -extension of NATO,collapse of Warsaw pact increased possibilities for UN growth of confidence and security buildingmeasures new (?) sources of conflict -

nationalism and ethnic conflict trad ehuman rights break up of nation states and the rise of'warlord-ism'

Arrangements between USA and USSR achieved national and regional security Main details of security were:

o deterrence due to nuclear parity Associated with balancing power blocs .

o Between NATO and Warsaw Pact USA and USSR sought national security through control of nations or nationalist groups.

International Security maintained by the US superpower.

The US used a combination of unilateral, bilateral and multilateral arrangements to secureher hegemonic power.


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1stGulf War

expansion of NATO (+ old enemies)

UN in conflict resolution

ASEAN & APEC

with China

Axis of Evil, AQ

Collapse of USSR means more regional instability, due to lack of superpowerpressure

Made unstable relationships in:

Eastern Europe

Africa Middle East Southeast Asia

Discontinuity Thesis

there is something fundamentally different between the Cold War and the conflicts of thePost Cold War era

Emphasises importance of new issues since 1990o attempts to improve human rights,

o an increased reliance on the UN,o increase free tradeo the control of weapons proliferation (nuclear, biological and chemical)

But these dont replace existing issues.

And there are continuities, Bi-polarity, pah!

Emergence of multi-polarity by the 1970s.

the Sino-Soviet split

the development of China:o as a nuclear power in the 1960so As an emerging eco power in the 1970s

the emergence of new global economic centres of power:o Japano W Germany and Europe as a whole

the emergence of Islam as an element in regional (Middle East and central Asia) and globalpolitics

There is much continuity between the CW and Post-CW eras:


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In South East Asia, the old international problems of borders, historical enmities, and powerdisparities exist

US defence alliances and the Pax Americana (post WW2 peace, USA hegemony) continuation of Cold War conflicts over Korea

The continuities of pre-existing tensions developed during the Cold War, but not part of it, whichhave flourished in the post cold war period:

problems associated with Islam ME/Western Tensions ME conflict, Israel/Palestine India-Pakistan conflict National conflicts in Africa

Terrorism

Does the Global War on Terror constitute a new security environment?

Terrorism is as old as the Trojan Horseo IRAo PLO

However, there are facets of contemporary terrorism that are new to the post CW world:

Its global nature Its trans-national nature

The use of non-conventional weaponry

The USA has sought to make it the rallying call for a new global unity of like-minded nations, basedaround a new world orde r


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The Causes and Nature of Conflict Phase 1

End of Cold War meant that less constraint for regional tensions

Cold War prevented violence; nuclear parity

America unsure how to use its power, new political relationships in ME, who were under Sovietinfluence.

Tensions which have existed for hundreds of years

Conflicts in First Phase of Post Cold War period (1991 2001):

Somalia Rwanda Breakup of Yugoslavia

Learn causes, outcomes

Phase 1 conflict traditional; state vs. state

Phase 2 conflicts non-conventional, asymmetrical: state vs. non-state

Primary non-state, al-Qaeda, non-military means.

US response includes pre-emption

Phase 1 Conflicts

Iraq First Gulf WarGulf Crisis of 1990

Iraq-Kuwait War of 1991

Iraqs motives to attack Kuwait ; not fully for Cold War reasons:

Historicalo Non-acceptance of its right to exist for years called South -Basra province.

Economical

o Existence of deep water port accesso Access to oil fields


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High oil prices needed to finance Iran-Iraq waro Fear of peak oil, worldwide recessiono OPEC (ME) control oil quota, therefore prices

Husseins development of Barthis t (Husseins political party) ideology, pan-Arabism (All Arabstates gathered together (against West), one community) under Iraq dominance.

USAs motives:

Desire to protect hegemonic influence in Persian Gulf Maintain stable oil prices to protect world economy, especially Japan, who were hit very

hard by oil recession. Protect small nations (Kuwait) from bullying neighbours.

o Main argument used by Bush Senior to develop multilateral sympathy.o New World Order, R2P, Human Rights more significant.

Concerns over WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction)o US wanted knew that Hussein had Biological Weapons because they supplied them

for Iraq- Iran War! Evidence of use on Kurds BUT o these weapons had been depleted by end of 1980s and these stockpiles didnt

exist.

Nature of the Conflict

Crisis caused by behaviour of rouge state. Iraq never accepted Kuwaits sovereignty. UK initiates condemnation of Kuwait invasion

US, fearing further attack, embarked on troop build-up (Desert Shield) Trade embargo Blockade didnt forc e Iraq out US and Gulf Coalition declared war to liberate Kuwait (Desert Storm) Very successful in liberating Kuwait

o Stopped short of full invasion of Iraq After 1991 the UN impose restriction

o No fly zone in north and south Iraqo Oil for food program

o

Weapons inspections

Summary Iraq nationalist and economic conflict Regional issues involved UN because of oil reserves Enforces US as hegemonic power First Gulf War big success for Security Council

o USSR collapsed, seeking help from Westo China wanting to be re-accepted in world affairs due to Tiananmen Squareo US led West in concerns over oil security.o Arab states wanted to contain Hussein and Iraqi military. (Contain the Tiger)


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Somalia & RwandaSomalia (1992) Ethnic and Regional tensions

Causes:

Somalia in state of civil war

o rival warlords struggle for control of countryo General Mohammad Aydid deposed President Barre

July 1992 UN estimated the entire population of 4.5 million was at risk of starvation UN Sec Gen. Boutros Boutros-Ghali encouraged the Security Council to approve 500 UN

troops (for food aid program) being sent in on 12 th August and massive food airlift began. By December up to 28,000 US troops and small groups from French Foreign Legion, Italy,

Canada, Australia, Nigeria, Zimbabwe and others

Nature:

Mission primarily humanitarian Boutros-Ghali also pushed for troops to be involved in disarmament and discussion between

hostile clans. US led military forces and UN misunderstood the tribal politics

Finish:

Clinton withdrew forces from Somaliao Pressured by democratic elections

Despite diplomatic attempts, Somalia still a fractured state (Piracy)

Summary:

Eg of regional, ethnic and economic conflict US couldnt resolve this conflict US suffered from lack of intelligence and forward strategic planning in face of well-armed

local militia. Significantly underestimated:

o Capacity of insurgentso Power of tribal loyaltieso Willingness of fledgling govts to engage with insurgents

Had to leave due to public pressure at home

Rwanda (1994) Ethnic historical conflict

Causes:

After Somalia

Osama Bin Laden , watching and learning


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o US and UN were reluctant to become involved in regional, nationalist and ethnicconflicts on the African continent

Led to late response in Rwandan humanitarian disaster in 1994 Colonisers Belgium leave in 1959 In 1959, the majority ethnic group, the Hutus, overthrew the ruling Tutsi king Thousands of Tutsis were killed, and 450,000 driven into exile Children of those formed a rebel group: Rwandan Patriotic Front in 1990

Nature:

The war exacerbated ethnic tensions, April 1994, genocide of roughly 800,000 Tutsis andmoderate Hutus.

As this was occurring, UN reduced numbers in Rwanda from 2500 to 270

In May, realised extent of genocide, wanted to send 5,500 US did not want another Somalia, blocked UNSC proposals

Finish:

Tutsi rebels finally defeat Hutu regime end the killing in July 1994 approx 2 million Hutu refugees flee to Burundi, Tunisia many return but 10000 still remain in DR Congo UN ineffective.

First Gulf War, Somalia and Rwanda are important in establishing the mindset and motivations ofal-Qaeda

Chechnya

Causes:

Impending collapse of Soviet Union in 1991o independence movement, Chechen National Congress was formed

Ultimately opposed by Boris Yeltsins Russi an Federation Chechnya part of Soviet State Chechnya resource rich, oil and gas. Russia cannot afford to lose Russia rejects Chechnyas appeal for independence.

Nature:

First Chechen War 1994 1996o Russian forces attempt to stop Chechnya from secedingo Despite overwhelming military strength, Russia was hurt fromo Casualty estimates 46,500 to 80,000


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o Russia sort of wins first conflict Destroyed economy leads to crime (kidnapping), political violence and religious extremism

o SoE declared by Chechen PM Second conflict emerged between Chechen loyalists to democratically elected govt &

Muslims who felt that the Chechen govt had collapsed into a puppet of Russian regimeo On Oct 1 1999, PM Putin sent troops in after Chechen militants crossed into the

neighbouring Muslim region of Dagestan in unsuccessful attempt to start an armed uprising

o Labelled as terrorist by Putin after several bomb attacks on Russian soil. Much better organised

o recaptured Grozny (Capital) in Feb 2000

Finish:

Muslim separatist movement was weakened Russia installs pro-Moscow Chechen regime

o poor leadership undermined effectiveness Guerrilla activity in southern mountainous regions continue Sighting still sporadic across entire North Caucasus Links with al-Qaeda Russia could use language of terrorism to defend its resistance to Chechnyan independence. Fuelled fundamentalist Islamic resentment of West

Conflict in BalkansYugoslavia, Balkan nations together make fake state during Cold War

Causes:

The Bosnian War or War of Bosnia and Herzegovinao Between April 1992 and Dec 1995

Involved many sides:o Bos and Hero Bosnian Serbso Bosnian Croatso Republika Srpska and Herzeg-Bosnia

War came about as result of breakup of Yugoslavia after Cold Waro Slovenia and Croatia successfully secede from Socialist Federal Republic of

Yugoslavia in 1991o Socialist Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina then passed a referendum for

independence on Feb 29 199o State does not want to lose territory, lose power

Kosovo War 98-99 o Wants independence from Serbiao Serbia attacks Kosovo

Legacy


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Break up of State

Serbs were able to use Islamic religion to vilify the enemy and minimise EU/US/UN/NATO supportfor Muslim Croats. Increase Islamic tensions.

Phase 2 Conflicts

Beirut 23 October 1983 Just before 6:30am, a Mercedes truck, packed with explosives, drove into a US marine

compound. 241 marine and other US personnel deaths. At the same time, another suicide bomber attacked the French barracks, killing 58

Somalia It is not known whether members of Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaeda organisation were

involved in the fire fight in Mogadishu but his people were certainly in Somalia at the time. In 1997 Bin Laden remarked to CNN's Peter Arnett how they had been surprised by the 'low

spiritual morale' of the Americans. He noted how 'the largest power on earth' left 'aftersome resistance from powerless, poor, unarmed people

Bin Laden learned that casualty intolerance was a key US vulnerability.

If their adversaries wanted to persuade the Americans to back off from any undesirable stance on anissue, they had to find some way of killing them on a significant scale.

Bin Ladens Grievances Major grievance was at US presence in Saudi Arabia in August 1990. Wanted US withdrawal. Also wanted to force it to 'desist from aggressive intervention against Muslims in the whole

world.' By causing mass casualties on a regular basis he could hope to persuade the Americans to

keep clear of overseas conflicts.o Also wanted to punish US decadence and its Middle East policies

September 11 th 2001

Events AA Flight 11 crashes into north tower at 8.46am

UA Flight 175 crashes into south tower at 9.03am

AA Flight 77 crashes into Pentagon 9.37am

South Tower collapses at 9.59am

UA Flight 93 crashes into field in Shanksville, Pennsylvania at 10.03am

North tower collapses at 10.28am

Between 16,400 and 18,000 civilians were in the WTC complex at the time of the first impact.


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2,986 people in total died as a direct result of the attacks.

2,752 of them in the WTC complex.

US Response

Strategic pre-emption

Allows US to attack any government or form of government which may offer safety toterrorist groups.

OBL became Americas most wanted

First target was the Taliban government

6 weeks after the disaster, the US led a full military operation into Afghanistan.

On October 7, the US led coalition launched cruise missiles and bombs against Talibanmilitary targets

On November 2001, the Northern Alliance won Kabulo A dangerously quick victory

Subsequent War on Terror It was launched after September 11 th , with the aim of ending international terrorism by stoppingterrorist groups and state funding of terrorist groups.

War on Terrorism has largely been dominated by the use of Special Forces, intelligence,police work, diplomacy and propaganda.

o Unlike earlier concepts and definitions of war -with defined nations, boundaries, andstanding armies and navies.

The 2 nd Gulf War was incorporated into the war on terror.

The US argued that Husseins government supported WMD activities, and financial andlogistical support for Palestinian terrorist groups, including payments of $25,000 US forsuccessful suicide bombings.

Spent most of 2002 trying to convince UN to allow invasion of Iraq.

US Counter Terrorism Steps

Denial of safe havens in which terrorists can train and equip members. Restriction of funding of terrorist organizations. Degradation of terrorist networks by capturing or killing intermediate leaders. Detention of suspected and known terrorists. Getting information, through various techniques, such as interrogation, from captured

terrorists of other members of their organization, training sites, methods, and funding. Expanding and improving efficiency of intelligence capabilities and foreign and domestic

policing.


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State Definitions of Terrorism The US National Counterterrorism Center:

o The term terrorism means premeditated, politically motivated violenceperpetrated against non-combatant targets by sub national groups or clandestineagents, usually intended to influence an audience

The United States Department of Defence:o the calculated use of unlawful violence or threat of unlawful violence to inculcate

fear; intended to coerce or to intimidate governments or societies in the pursuit ofgoals that are generally political, religious, or ideological.

The Patriot Act passed following S-11o acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the US or

any other state The UK s terrorism Act (2000):

o the use or threat of action to influence a government or intimidate the public for

political, religious or ideological reasons The Australian Defence Force:

o the use or threatened use of violence for political ends, or any use or threatened useof violence for the purpose of putting the public or any section of the public in fear.

Effectiveness of groups and states in fulfilling objectivesBetter intelligence: might have a better idea of what is going on

If anything, the whole war on terror has only fanned the flames.

Provided radicals with the immediate pr opaganda theyve needed.

Iraq and Afghanistan today

AfghanistanNext door to Pakistan

US vs. Taliban (fundamentalist Islam)

Initial NATO invasion successful, Taliban government knocked out in three weeks.

Afghanistan struggles to find stability as Taliban insurgency

Bush junior moves out of Afghanistan into Iraq, weakening operation.

US supported (funded, supplied) Muslims (mujahadeen) who were fighting Soviets during Cold War.

Afghanistans Power assets? (USD)

GDP: $30 billion (approx. 2010 estimate)

GDP/capita:

$1000 (2010 estimate)GDP growth 2010:


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8.9%Inflation:

13.3% (2009 estimate)Deficit:

Relies on foreign aid. Had structural (really bad) deficit from 80s

Debt relief: Russia, Afghanistans largest bilateral creditor, announced in August 2007 that it wouldcancel US$10 billion of Soviet-era debt.

US and Ger many, Afghanistans other major bilateral creditors, have cancelled debt owed. These concessions, in combination with Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) debt relief program,means that about 99% of debt will eventually be forgiven.

However, difficult for West to cancel debt (Greece, Spain, Portugal in trouble)Power Deficits

GDP per capita ranking: 216

Below Togo

Current account balance: $-2.475 billion (2009 est.)

External debt: $2.7billion (2009 est.)

Unemployment: 40% (2008 est.)

Annual Military spending: $122,400,000 (2005)

% of GDP: 1.9% (2009 est.)

Population: 33,609,937 (July 2009 est.)

Literacy: 29%

Diminishes productive and leadership capacity of state

80% of workforce in agriculture, only 10% in industry

Net importer (buy more than they sell)

Import: $5.3billion (2008 est.)

Export: $547 million (2009 est.)o Note. Not including illicit exports or re-exports

Opium economy is largest export earner

Afghanistan supply 90% of world opium

Afghanistan dependant on foreign aid to stimulate economy

Aid equivalent to over 40% of GDP, more than 90% of public spending Yet still developing own-source revenue, is managing economy.

Current Status of Government


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Positive

Trade increased Infrastructure rebuilt Economy recovered greatly

o Still amongst poorest nations

Negative

More than half of households have no electricity whatsoever Drought, affected Most live on about $4 per day Half of rural population in poverty.

War on Terror

Going badlyo southern half in chaos

Domestic support failingo Percentage of Afghani people perceiving US as positive: 68% in 2005. 42% in 2007

Big challenge in Pakistan, US image erodedo Majority of Pakistanis blame America for countrys internal violence

India in second place uh oh.

Pakistan vulnerable to Taliban/AQ message According to polls in Afghanistan:

o Most people in south believe Taliban grew stronger in 2008o Foreign troops criticised for killing civilians, and not providing securityo Those who want foreigners to leave outnumber those who want to stay by more

than two to one. US backing Israel against Palestine in Gaza strip, negative view

Obamas Priority

To reverse momentum in Afghanistan Shut down safe havens which Al-Qaeda and Taliban and other jihadists have built in Pakistan

US plan to regain control by implementing aggressive plan to seek out insurgents and cuttingoff escape routes into Pakistan

Need to rebuild confidence amongst Afghanis and Pakistanis that US and West will notabandon them once Taliban and AQ are defeated

Need for rebuilt Afghan army. o American troop surge very effective in breaking Taliban momentum in Afghanistan

10-15000 Taliban estimated Taliban fighting in the nation. The Taliban have been saying, and Mullah Omar in particular has been saying, "Victory is in

sight. NATO's will is breaking. The Europeans already want to go home."o Within a couple of years, he promises his supporters, NATO will leave and they will

take over.


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o Now he's even offered in the last month safe passage for any NATO forces thatwant to leave, akin to the safe passage that the mujahadeen gave the Soviets in1989.

o Until the coalition force breaks that sense of confidence and momentum, there willnot be any serious willingness to negotiate

Cooperation between Pakistan (President Zadari) and Karzai essential o Fortunately both comfortable working with each other o Yet no real productive relationship on border.

Pakistan and Taliban

Pakistan not trained in counter-insurgency Obsessed with war against India.

Taliban has influence in tribal areas north and south of Pakistan

US and Pakistan

Obama has begun talks with Karzai and Zadari, aiming to create a coordinated approach tothe Taliban insurgence.

In May 2010, the Pakistani government showed it was serious when it launched offensives inBuner and Lower Dir districts to flush out advancing armed Taliban

Elements of Just War jus ad bellum - Right to make War

Just Cause

Defending West against attack? Clearing Iraq of WMD

Cause must be proportionate

Does invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq = 9/11, Bali Bombing, London, Madrid, Mumbai? Do ongoing terrorist attacks legitimise ongoing War on Terror

Right Intention

What are US objectives? What is legitimate intention

Authorisation by appropriate authority

UN support for Afghanistan BUT no support for Iraq

Reasonable prospect of success

Ignorance is bliss?


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Fighting unknown, intangible enemy Definite improvement in Iraq Afghanistan is in chaos spilling into Pakistan

Be last resort

What other efforts did US make before launching the war on terror?

When can US condone invasion?UN obliged to protect state sovereignty

Human Rights abuses, pressure to reform state (Zimbabwe, Sudan, Burma) Genocide, it will go in to protect civilians to restore peace (Somalia)

o But in neither case is UN removing sovereign govt

UN only challenges state sovereignty when it threatens other states

R2Po Such as Libya

Afghanistan did this by harbouring Taliban

So UN backed Afghanistan, Taliban

Didnt back Iraq, reasons werent good enough. WMD (investigated, then rejected), harbouring AQ(immediately rejected)

Elements of Just WarDiscrimination

No attacking of innocento 96% of Guantanamo Bay inmates recognised by US govt as non-terrorists

High civilian casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq

Proportionality

Minimum necessary force Was US response to Iraq, Afghanistan proportional? Killing of OBL rather than trial?

Winning?

At all costs? Conceding draw and negotiate

o eg. UK/IRA ROBOTICS

o Reduces soldier casualties, takes humans out of military equation takes heat off USgovt


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o Creates greater risk taking behaviour by US military, increased risk of civiliancasualty heat back on US govt

Al-Qaeda can be more aggressive than USA because they have no one to answer too not govto not democracyo no civilian community to be outraged

all willing to die for cause

Origins of Islamist terror activity Afghanistan under Soviet invasion

o Al Qaeda Contemporary Islamist issues

o Global and National 9/11 and US response generating subsequent terrorist activity

Feeling that this once great culture is being attacked by the West

Ideological support:

Wahabism, Saudi Arabia Deobandism, Pakistan Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt

Israel Palestine conflictRole of Mahmood Ahmedinejad

Stirring up anti-West and jihadist fundamentalism. Mysterious puppeteer

Iraq SynopsisIn terms of Iraq, all international combat troops have been withdrawn in 2010, focus moves awayfrom Iraq, which is still unstable (Sunni, Shia(govt) civil war

US created population balance representation when installing govt after 2003

o Excluded Sunni (Hussein) from govt

Peter Singer on robotics

200 Air Strikes in Pakistan by UAV, not reported Geneva Convention (1940s) need changing. Star Trek Prime Directive? People take advantage of laws of war. High end military using technology,lower actors circumvent them


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Sunni now minority in govt (represents population)o resentful, infighting in govt

Iraq not a basketcase; functioning, but unstableo where there is unstability, voido where there is a void, terrorism fills it

Iraq and Afghanistan

Similarities DifferencesAustralia US ally in both UN justification in Afghanistan, not IraqWar on Terror justification Afghanistan is broadly based multi-lateral

commitment whilst Iraq has limited internationalsupport

Both going badly. Civil war in Iraq, Talibanresurgence

Western govts (US, UK, Aust) manipulated truthre Iraq and WMD, terrorism

When arguing whos winning war on terror, use: 1. Factor s for US/West winning. 2. Factors forUS/West winning

Can be argued as see-saw

2001-2 Initial success in Afghanistan

2006-7 US struggle in Iraq, surge of troops

2008 US regains control in Iraq

2009-10 Afghanistan and Pakistan explode, Iran threatens, US on back foot again

2010 Surge curtails Taliban in Afghanistan but not really in Pakistan

2011 US kills OBL

Factors that US is winning1. No repeat of 9/11. (But Madrid, Bali and London)2. Arrest/death of one-third to one-half of AQ leadership (OBL)3. Effective monitoring and homeland security (at expense of civil liberties?)

4. Removal of Taliban in Afghanistan (re-emerged in Pakistan. Rebuilding in Afghanistan)5. Removal of Hussein, brutal regime (not linked to AQ terrorism! Problems with new govt)

Factors that US is losing1. AQ gone more global2. The war has been going on for a decade, with no sign of it ending.3. US Defense and intelligence leaders describe the new al Qaeda leader, Egyptian surgeon

Ayman al-Zawahiri, as disorganized and less charismatic than Osama bin Laden, hispredecessor.


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Other Terrorist organisations

Hezbollah Started as Islamic terrorist group Funded by Iran, based in Lebanon

Focus

Anti-West, Anti-Israel

Goals

Expel US, French, and Allies definitely To let people choose form of government, liberty Islamic government guarantees justice and liberty Islamic government will stop infiltration of Western presence (infidels)

Targets

Israel, and Western forces therein States which work with West: Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia

Activities

Shifted from terrorism to political arena Suicide bombings (none since 06) and kidnappings (of Israeli soldiers, Westerners in Israel)

For every Hezbollah hostage, 100 Palestinians in Israeli jail

In 2010, Hezbollah (govt) claimed Israeli gas fields (Dal it, Tamaar), actually belonged toLebanon

Cross border raids, Human Shield tactics (see Peter Singer)

2006 Lebanon War 34 day conflict

Hezbollah kidnap soldiers in cross border raid Israel respond with large air strikes

International pressure led to agreed ceasefire 1200 Lebanese killed, 1000 civilians 158 Israelis killed, 41 civilians

Hezbollah goes political

In 2005 election, won 10.9% of parliamentary seats In Mar 11, withdrew from government in protest West still sees them as terrorist, either as a whole, or just security forces.


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4th highest exporter ($1.27 trillion (2010)), highest importer ($1.903 trillion (2010)) US has used financial influence to generate allies, through pumping money into poorer

countries. US dollar is the global currency $15.08 trillion in publically traded shares (#1)

Political Power

Seat on Security Councilo Veto used 81 times (more than 30 concerning Israel/Palestine)

Leading member of major organisationso WB, WTO, IMF (with EU), NATO, APEC

Alliances key source of powero NATO looks to USo Coalition of the Willing

Military Power

Most advanced military, mostly offensive forceso Yet need more knowledge (Somalia, Iraq)

Limits to Americas power Power Defecits

Unemployment: 9.7% (2010) Imports: 1.9 trillion Exports: 1.27 trillion Current account balance: $-561 bill Public Debt: 58% GDP External Debt: $13.98 trillion Federal Reserve Interest Rate: 0.25%

Unit ReviewShift from:

Bush vs. Bin Laden, Iraq, War on Terror to Obama, diplomacy and Afghanistan/Pakistan

Examine Phase 1 &2 causes (cause of conflict) and nature (how do people fight, resolution andlegacy) of conflict.

Conflicts are based upon either nationalist, religious, economic or ethnic tensions. These tensions came together in September 11 th and War on Terror/ism

USA hegemony after collapse of Soviet bloc, with China and India emerging as potentiallypowerful states.


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Emergence of global terrorism Role of UN? Growth of EU Economic growth in Asia-Pacific region

Emerging power of China. New aspect of international affairs tension between EU and USA (condemning Bushsinvasion of Iraq)

In todays world, states are still key actors. Conflict is result of challenge to state sovereignty.

Sovereignty allows state to mediate disputes between citizenry with measure of independence fromother gov ts. Key concepts: Self-determination, non-intervention, self-defence. Challenged byglobalisation and internationalism (eg UNs responsibility to protect)

Traditionally, states were only global actors. Respect for sovereignty of states crucial. Security ofstate was most important (borders, citizens, economy). Diplomacy was crucial tactic in forgingrelations between states; UN important manifestation of modern society of states

Today, states have to share space with non-state actors such as:

TNCs NGO Oil and currency speculators Terrorist networks

States security expanded to include new threats:

Climate Change AIDS, SARS, Avian flu International Terrorism Illegal trade Refugees & asylum seekers

Key Q: What role does globalisation play in global conflict today?

Diplomacy remains crucial tactic in forging relations between states

States no longer have control/monopoly on violence, now targets. Non-state actors now createconflict, too costly for states (particularly Western).

Why the change? Globalisation and technological advances in IT. Globalisation is framework whichall international relations, war, trade and communications, interaction between people.

Conflict

End of Cold War (bi-polar balance) did not bring sustained peace. Regional tensions explode; newfreedom to express nationalism based on religion and ethnicity.

In Nash, 50% discussion, 50% examples


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Cause and Nature of PCW Conflict

Western perpective: Move from:

old nationalism (civic, western, good) to

new nationalism (ethnic, non -western, evil in view of west)

9 wars out of 10 are civil wars in which the great majority of the casualties are citizens.

Internal Conflict External conflictIraq and Kuwait. Expansionist state RwandaIndia Pakistan. Opposed regimesIsrael Palestine. Rival territorial claimsN Korea and Iran. Nuclear proliferation

Afghanistan (and Iraq) War on terror

1st Gulf War

Causes

nationalist and economic Iraqi: territorial expansion US: Territorial control and establishment of hegemony

Nature multilateral force swift military attack (desert Shield and Desert Storm) Un sanctions involved. Unique set of circumstances allowed for success

Legacy

US established in ME US/UN feeling invincible Iraq caged AQ grievance grows

Congruence

Phase 1 flare-up of longstanding regional and ethnic tensions, set up foundation for Phase 2: USmilitary bases in ME, UN ineffectiveness revealed.

Nature/balance of power shift after CW

US hegemon Emergence of non-state actors

Some things remain


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Nationalist and territorial concerns

Influence of national interest in foreign policy decision making.

Define terrorism

the use of: a deliberate strategy of violence or intimidation which is arbitrary or seems to beunprovoked and is usually against citizens, to achieve political or broader outcomes.

May be used by non-state actors, or by governments themselves.

State based examples: Zimbabwe (Mugabe using arbitrary violence against political opponents)

State based terrorism characterised by:

Use of murder, violence, monitoring, threat or illegal arrests against its own citizens External behaviour is more difficult to define as terrorist Israel, US

Non State egs: Hezbollah, nationalist objectives, growing inter-connection with global ideals > AQideological leadership?

Global or International Terrorismthe real Axis of Evil in the world: poverty & ignorance; disease & environmental disorder;corruption & political oppression Al Gore

When is T. global? Attacks across national boundaries, involes the globe

Why is T. global? AQ and Jemaah Islamiah have global reach (thanks to globalisation!) Recruitment

from Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and Australia. David Hicks & JihadJack Thomas good examples

Popular, xenophobic reaction to Islam and Islamic community.

Views and causes and effects on international terrorismCauses

Islamic: Resentment of US hegemony, pervasive Western culture, sense of alienation, desire forIslamist state

Western: Hatred of all things Western

Effects

Western: Change in US foreign policy (containment to pre-emption), US pre-occupation with neo-imperialism, war on terror, undermining of UN, fracturing of int. community.

Islamic: Propagation of Islamic extremism, linking of previously individual Islamic causes, increasingoppression of Islamic peoples.

Globalisation: Provides networking and technology for attacks

Internationalism: Provides sense of global community for terrorists & targets/victims


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Effects

Legal & HR impact

Patriot Act 2001, State monitoring of personal communication and financial transactions,

expanded definition of terrorism to broaden net UK Anti-Terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001 & Terrorism Act 2006

Economic Impact

Cost of clean up

Costs to/for victims familieso rate of destruction return is 100,000 to 1 (for every one person killed, 100,000 killed

in Iraq and Afghanistan)

Increased US response

WoT Bush War on Terrorism Obama

Increased anti-US sentiment

US seen as ruthless, aggressive, arrogant, easily provoked & biased

Why is US target?

Economic and cultural globalisationo Americanisation pressure to erode Islamic traditional culture throughout the world

US appears to tolerate persecution of Islamic peopleso In Bosnia, Chechnya & Somalia

Pax Americana in regional conflicts US support for Israel US occupation in Saudi Arabia after 1 st Gulf War

Power=control

US is hegemon, greater than any other state in Military, Economic, Political and Cultural

Extent & Limits of US power Has Immense economic power, 2 nd largest economy Highly advanced military in the world

Limitations

Has struggled to understand the nature of non-State actors, changing nature of conflict Ill-prepared and ill-equipped for resurgence (2007 and 2010) Poor diplomacy under Bush Jnr

Foreign Debt etc


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Success or failure of Objectives

USObjectives

Bush Pre-emptive strikes 'War on Terror' Defeat terrorists such as Osama bin Laden, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and destroy their

organizations Identify, locate and destroy terrorists along with their organizations Deny sponsorship, support and sanctuary to terrorists

o End the state sponsorship of terrorismo Establish and maintain an international standard of accountability with regard to

combating terrorismo Strengthen and sustain the international effort to fight terrorismo Work with willing and able stateso Enable weak stateso Persuade reluctant stateso Compel unwilling stateso Interdict and disrupt material support for terroristso Eliminate terrorist sanctuaries and havens

Diminish the underlying conditions that terrorists seek to exploito Partner with the international community to strengthen weak states and prevent

(re)emergence of terrorismo Win the war of ideals

Defend US citizens and interests at home and abroado Implement the National Strategy for Homeland Securityo Attain domain awarenesso Enhance measures to ensure the integrity, reliability, and availability of critical

physical and information-based infrastructures at home and abroado Integrate measures to protect US citizens abroado Ensure an integrated incident management capability

Obama

Stabilise states Reduce tensions withdrawing 33k troops from Afghanistan by 2012

Kill OBL Destroy Taliban and al-Qaeda

Success

Removal of Taliban government in 2001, Hussein government in 2003 No repeat of 9/11 OBL killed May 2nd 2011 More positive attitude towards civilians in Iraq, and greater tendency towards democracy Combat troop withdrawal from Iraq

Restriction of terrorist fundso Washington froze $140 million in terrorist assets across 1400 bank accounts by 2005


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Failure

Terrorist activity continues

AQ and other radical Islamic groups have successfully executed attacks since 9/11 Afghanistan failed state Ex-President Rabbani killed, peace talks halted International support for war on terror in Iraq has collapsed AQ and Taliban rebuilding, growing; Afghanistan and Pakistan. Sense of futility in combating terrorism

o London 2005, Glasgow 2007,

AQObjectives:

Summed up by three targetso World Trade Centre, White House and Pentagon

Remove Islamic/Arab countries current leadership Removing American involvement in ME weakening Israel, an US ally

Success:

Growing recruitmento Base in Iraq after 2003

Resurgence of Taliban Focal point for other nationalist Islamic causes Reactionary of Western FP; response to fear Israel more under spotlight Capacity to maintain conflict

o Against world greatest military Posed challenge to US and UN

Ayman al-Zawahiri replaced OBL as chief of al-Qaeda

Obama to withdraw 33 000 troops in Afghanistan by the end of 2012.

Second Gulf War costing US more than $2 billion per week


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GlossaryGlobalisation Globalisation involves the flow of goods and services, labour & people, capital,communications and technology. It creates and is facilitated through the breakdown of barriersbetween states and results in the exchange of ideas, culture, technology and resources.

Hegemony one superpower (America after Cold War)

Internationalism is a consciously collaborative process whereby nations work together in acommunity of shared interests and are willing to make sacrifices on national sovereignty to achievethose outcomes.

Moratorium debate where work is halted until issue is resolved.

Multilateralism is multiple countries working together to solve a particular issue

Nation - a community of people who share common link, which may be language, history, etc.

Sovereignty A state s capacity making laws, controlling resources, taxes, international relations,and declaring war, whilst being independent from other states.

State a country or nation with its own sovereign independent government. Politically organisedhuman groupings, occupy distinct territory

Tariff a tax on imported goods designed to protect the local economy

Trade liberalisation - Trade of goods without trade barriers, such as tariffs. Reflects true supply anddemand

Unilateralism is nations acting on their own, without other nations

Warsaw Pact Alliance of Soviet Nations. Pitted against NATO

Table of causes of Phase 1 conflictsConflict Regional? Nationalist? Ethnic? Economic? Religious? Historical?1st Gulf War(Iraq)

Somalia Rwanda Chechnya LaterBalkans Later on

Documents

Nash Notebook Unit 3