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Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

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Page 1: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

1

Page 2: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

OverviewOverview

• Regional demographic overviewRegional demographic overview

• Workforce supply analysis

i l d d f k• Regional demand for workers

• Balancing supply and demand

• Reviewing key cluster trends

• Key challenges for future workforceKey challenges for future workforce development policy

2

Page 3: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGEDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

Regional Growth Continues Faster than the US and Tennessee

3

Page 4: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Recent and Projected Population Growth for the Nashville Economic Market Areafor the Nashville Economic Market Area

2.5%

2.4%

2.0%

U.S.TennesseeNashville Area

1.5%

atio

n G

row

th

0.9%

1.3%

0 8%

1.3%

1.0%

Ann

ual P

opul

a

0.7%

0 3%

0.8%

0 3%

0.5%0.5%

0.3% 0.3%

0.0%2004-2009 2009-2014 2014-2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates; Projections f rom EMSI4

Page 5: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Annual Population Growth in theG N h ill A

Annual Population

Greater Nashville Area(2004 to 2009)

2.6% 2.5% 2.4%

1.2%

Annual PopulationGrowth

(2004-2009)

More than 3.4%

3.0%1.3% 1.3%

3 9% 4 0%

2.4% to 3.4%

Less than 2.4%

2.6%

3.9% 4.0%*United States: 0.9%**Tennessee: 1.3%***Nashville Area: 2.4%

0 20

Source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates

Miles

5

Page 6: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Nashville Region Commuting Patterns

0 25Miles

20 000+

Commuters

5,000 to 9,9992,500 to 4,999

10,000 to 19,99920,000+

Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics (2008)

1,000 to 2,499

6

Page 7: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Migration Patterns for the Nashville Economic Market Area

140,000

115,440120,000

In-migrantsOut-migrants

Average Annual Income102,935

80,000

100,000

7-20

08)

Average Annual IncomeIn-migrants: $45,222Out-migrants: $43,160

55,391 58,17954,87746 809

60,000

Mig

ran

ts (2

007

46,809

20,000

40,000M

0Total In-State Out of State

Source: US Internal Revenue Service7

Page 8: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Largest Origins and Destinations of N h ill A Mi 2007 2008Nashville Area Migrants, 2007‐20081 400

1,200

1,400Total Arriving to Nashville

Total Leaving Nashville

800

1,000

nts

(200

7-08

)

600

umbe

r of M

igra

n

200

400N

0

Source: IRS

8

Page 9: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Age Structure of the Existing PopulationPopulation

140,000

126,494

100,000

120,000

80,000

ange, 2000‐2009

46,772

67,582

40 000

60,000

Popu

lation

 Cha

,

24,357

39,917

20,000

40,000

0

Pre & Young Schoolers (0‐9)

Next Gen Talent (10‐19) Prime Working Age (20‐54)

Pre‐Retirees (55‐64) Retirees (65 and over)

Source: U.S Census Bureau Population Estimates

9

Page 10: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Population Growth by EthnicityPopulation Growth by Ethnicity9%

U.S.

8.0%

8.5%

7%

8%

U.S.TennesseeGreater Nashville Area

4 9%5%

6%

latio

n (2

004-

2009

)

3.3%

4.0%

4.9%

3%

4%

% C

hang

e in

Pop

ul

1 0%

2.7%

0 9%1.3%

1.8%

2.3%

1%

2%

%

0.2%1.0%0.9%

0%White alone Black or African American Hispanic or Latino (of any

race)Asian

EthnicitySource: Census, EMSI10

Page 11: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

WORKFORCE SUPPLYWORKFORCE SUPPLY

Unemployment Up; 

Lower Skill Workers at Greatest Risk

11

Page 12: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Unemployment RateUnemployment Rate

12%

10.5%

9 3%

10%

US

Tennessee

Nashville Area

9.3% 9.3%

8%

ent R

ate

5.5% 5.4%

4.5%4%

6%

Une

mpl

oym

e

4.5%

2%

4%

0%2004 2009

Source: Bureauof Labor Statistics

12

Page 13: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Unemployment by Educational Level in Nashville Market Area (2006‐2008)Nashville Market Area (2006 2008)

12.0%

Source: American Community Survey

9.9%10.0%

21.0%18.7%

5.5%6.0%

8.0%

Less than high school graduate

Hi h h l d5.5%

4.0%4.0%

4.5% avg.

25.7%

High school graduate

Some college or associate's degree

2.5%

2.0%34.6%

degree

Bachelor's degree or higher

0.0%

Less than high school graduate High school graduate Some college or associate's degree

Bachelor's degree or higher 13Source: American Community Survey

Page 14: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Unemployment by Educational Level in Nashville Metro Area (2009)

18.3%18.0%

20.0%

Source: American Community Survey

Nashville Metro Area (2009)

14.0%

16.0%

19.1%16.7%

10.1%10.0%

12.0%Less than high school graduate

Hi h h l d

7.8%

6.0%

8.0% Nashville Metro Area: 7.7%

29.7%

High school graduate

Some college or associate's degree

3.5%

2.0%

4.0%34.5%

degree

Bachelor's degree or higher

0.0%

Less than high school graduate High school graduate Some college or associate's degree

Bachelor's degree or higherSource: American Community Survey 14

Page 15: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Educational Attainment of Population Aged 25 and Above

40%

33.5%

30%

35%

%

U.S.TennesseeGreater Nashville Area

28.1%

22.0%22.1%

29.5%

23.6%

25%

30%

atio

n (2

5+)

17.0%

14.1%

18.9%

15%

20%

% o

f Pop

ula

6.2%

10.6%

6.4%

9.7%

6.3%

11.4%

5.2%

7.5%

3.9%

9.3%

5.7%

8.9%

5%

10%

0%Less than 9th

grade9th to 12th grade,

no diplomaHigh School

Graduate (includes equivalency)

Some College, no degree

Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Graduate/ Professional

Educational Attainment (2009)Source: EMSI15

Page 16: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Areas with Concentrations of h d lHigh Educational Attainers

16

Page 17: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Earnings by Educational Attainment ( )(2006‐2008)

$55,452 G d t f i l

$63,174

$43,095

$54,165

$45,477

Bachelor's degree

Graduate or professional degree

$33 838

$47,853

$31,019

$34,121 Some college or associate's

degree

g

$27,448

$33,838

$25,485

$28,583 High school graduate (includes

equivalency) Greater Nashville Area

Tennessee

$19,989

$18,918

$34 712

$20,584

Less than high school graduateUS

$34,483

$30,562

$34,712

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000

Average Wages for Population 25+

Source: ACS

17

Page 18: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

WORKFORCE DEMANDWORKFORCE DEMAND

Continued Opportunities in Services,

Extended Road to Recovery

18

Page 19: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Nashville Supersectors as Percent of l lTotal Employment

18 0%18.7%

Trade, Transportation & Utilities

14.7%

15.9%

18.0%

13.1%

14.1%

Education & Health Services

Professional & Business Services

10.0%

10.4%

10 0%

10.6%

10.7%

Leisure & Hospitality

Government

5.3%

10.8%

6.0%

7.1%

10.0%

Construction

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

2.2%

5.7%

6.2%

2.5%

5.7%

Information

Other Services

Construction

2009

2019

0.9%

1.4%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

Agriculture & Mining

Percent of Total EmploymentSource: EMSI

19

Page 20: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Projected “Supersector” Industry h dGrowth Trend

U SN h ill E i M k t A U.S

2009 Emp Emp 

Change Annual Growth 

Annual Growth 

Nashville Economic Market Area

Supersector Estimate 2009‐2019 Rate RateTrade, Transportation & Utilities 199,316 19,288 0.9% 0.4%Professional & Business Services 150,418 42,933 2.5% 2.0%Ed ti & H lth S i 139 121 39 042 2 5% 2 1%Education & Health Services 139,121 39,042 2.5% 2.1%Government 113,385 13,493 1.1% 0.6%Leisure & Hospitality 113,268 8,416 0.7% 0.9%Financial Activities 106,953 23,767 2.0% 1.9%, ,Manufacturing 75,814 ‐11,805 ‐1.7% ‐0.9%Construction 63,670 12,230 1.8% 1.0%Other Services 60,621 8,922 1.4% 1.1%I f ti 26 480 323 0 1% 0 4%Information 26,480 ‐323 ‐0.1% 0.4%Agriculture & Mining 15,275 ‐4,326 ‐3.3% 0.0%Total 1,064,321 151,637 1.3% 1.1%Source: EMSI

20

Page 21: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Fastest Growing High Wage Occupations

Emp Annual

SOC Occupation2009 Emp Estimate

Emp Change

2009-2019

Annual Growth Rate 2009-2019

Median Earnings

Educational Requirements

29-1111 Registered nurses 16,346 5,561 2.97% $28.76Associate's degreeBachelor's

13-2011 Accountants & auditors 9,504 3,070 2.84% $21.89Bachelor s degree

43-1011

First-line supervisors/managers of office & administrative support workers 12,110 2,297 1.75% $20.66

Work exp. in a related field

11-9199 Managers, all other 10,695 2,109 1.82% $20.27Work exp. in a related field

13-1111 Management analysts 5,939 1,955 2.89% $25.36Degree plus work exp.

Source: EMSIG t th R i l M di E i f $17 30Greater than Regional Median Earnings of $17.30

21

Page 22: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Preparing for Transitionh ’ kThe region’s Most at‐risk Occupations

SOC Occupation2009 Emp Estimate

Emp Change

2009-2019

Annual Growth Rate 2009-2019

Median Earnings

Educational Requirements

11-9012 Farmers & ranchers 9,161 (3,456) -4.63% $7.26 Long-term OJT

51-2092 Team assemblers 11,085 (1,102) -1.04% $18.79Moderate-term OJT

35-3021

Combined food preparation & serving workers, including fast food 18,008 (779) -0.44% $8.07 Short-term OJT35 3021 food 18,008 (779) 0.44% $8.07 Short term OJT

11-9011Farm, ranch, & other agricultural managers 2,218 (654) -3.43% $11.15

Degree plus work exp.

53-7064 Hand packers & packagers 5,014 (477) -0.99% $9.38 Short-term OJTSource: EMSI

22

Page 23: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Employment Share by Education Requirement30 0%

4‐Year College Degree18%

Advanced Degree3%

24.0% 23.7%25.0%

30.0%

Short‐Term Training33%

18%

Short‐

Advanced Degree5%

20.0%

T h/S P t

ShortTerm 

Training24%

4‐Year College Degree24%

16.5%15.4% 15.1%

15.0%

Tech/Some Postsec9% Moderate 

Training15%

Long Term 

Training/

Tech / Some Postsec

10.0%

Training/Exp15%

17%

% of New Jobs

5.3%5.0%

Moderate Training19%

Long Term Training/Exp

18%% of Total  Jobs

0.0%

4‐Year College Degree

Short‐Term Training Tech/Some Postsec Moderate Training Long Term Training/Exp

Advanced Degree

Source: EMSI

Page 24: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Employment Composition by Educationp y p y

3 6%

3.4%Advanced Degree

18.5%

3.6%

17.7%4‐Year College Degree

9.9%

8.9%Tech/Some Postsec. % of Total Employment ‐ 2009

% of Total Employment ‐ 2019

17.5%

19 2%

17.8%Long Term Training/Exp.

18.7%

32.3%

19.2%

Sh t T T i i

Moderate Training

31.2%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

Short‐Term Training

Source: EMSI

24

Page 25: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Summary of Regional Workforce DemandRegional Workforce Demand

• Employment growth to return– Added 46,000 net new jobs since 2004; but lost 

ground during the recession;ground during the recession; Not enough to retain full employment

– Back to full employment by 2014/2015– Expected to add more than 150,000 jobs by 2019p j y

• Two‐thirds of new employment growth will occur in 3 economic supersectors:– Professional & business service– Education & health services – Trade, transportation & utilities

• Highest growth in high skill occupations:– Nursing– Accounting and financial management– Various managerial positions– High skill IT‐related occupations– Truck driving

25

Page 26: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

The Potential Labor Market GapThe Potential Labor Market Gap

A L b F A d 16+ (2009)* 894 051Estimated Need for Workers

A Labor Force Aged 16+ (2009)* 894,051        B Labor Force Aged 16+ (2019 Projected)* 942,188          C Projected Net New Workers (B‐A) 48,137             D Available Unemployed Workers (2009) 80,231D Available Unemployed Workers (2009) 80,231           E Unemployed at "Full Employment" (est. 4%) 34,508             F Total Available Workers 2009 Due to Recession (D‐E) 45,723            G Total Existing Local Workers Available by 2019** (C+F) 93,860             H Projected New Job Creation (2009‐2019) 151,637          I Projected Additional People Required for these New Jobs*** 117,548          J Projected Gap by  2019 (H‐G) 23,688            Calculations:  CREC based on Data from EMSI, DemographicsNow

**Assumes unemployment rate of 4.0%

*Based on Population times estimated labor force participation rate in 2008 and 2018 as published in BLS, "Labor Force Projections to 2018," Monthly Labor Review, November 2009.

26

Assumes unemployment rate of 4.0%***Assumes 1.2 jobs filled by each person in the labor force (similar ratio as 2009) due to combination of turnover and individuals holding multiple jobs

Page 27: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

KEY CLUSTER TRENDSKEY CLUSTER TRENDS

Growth “Engines” Rebounding,

But the “Bounce” Varies Widely

27

Page 28: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Where the Jobs Will Be:  l hHealth Care

SOC OccupationEst Cluster Emp 2009

Est Cluster Emp 2019

Δ Emp 2009 - 2019

Median Earnings

Educational Requirements

29 1111 Registered nurses 13 158 18 182 5 024 $28 76 Associate's degree

Key Industry Trends• Aging population driving increased demand• Increased competition between medical service providers in29-1111 Registered nurses 13,158 18,182 5,024 $28.76 Associate s degree

31-1012Nursing aides, orderlies, & attendants 6,109 8,121 2,012 $11.90 Postsec. voc. award

29-2061Licensed practical & licensed vocational nurses 5,051 6,617 1,566 $18.59 Postsec. voc. award

29 1069 Ph i i & 4 433 5 535 1 102 $91 81 Fi t f i l d

• Increased competition between medical service providers in retail settings vs. traditional hospital or medical offices

• Uncertain impact of health care reform29-1069 Physicians & surgeons 4,433 5,535 1,102 $91.81 First professional degree31-1011 Home health aides 3,485 4,780 1,295 $10.34 Short-term OJT29-1051 Pharmacists 526 688 162 $54.19 First professional degreeSource: EMSIKey Occupations and Workforce Issues• Family practice physiciansFamily practice physicians• Nursing and allied health• Health care programmers and IT support

28

Page 29: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Where the Jobs Will Be: f h lInformation Technologies

Key Industry Trends

SOC OccupationEst Cluster Emp 2009

Est Cluster Emp 2019

Δ Emp 2009 - 2019

Median Earnings

Educational Requirements

• Banking, distribution, and health care administration big regional drivers

• Increased pressure to improve worker productivitySOC Occupation Emp 2009 Emp 2019 - 2019 Earnings Requirements15-1021 Computer programmers 1,028 1,612 584 $26.69 Bachelor's degree

15-1031Computer software engineers, applications 699 1,597 898 $34.28 Bachelor's degree

15-1051 Computer systems analysts 638 1,400 762 $27.81 Bachelor's degree15 1041 C t t i li t 475 1 222 747 $19 90 A i t ' d

Increased pressure to improve worker productivity

Key Occupations and Workforce Issues15-1041 Computer support specialists 475 1,222 747 $19.90 Associate's degree

15-1081Network systems & data communications analysts 444 897 453 $23.09 Bachelor's degree

Source: EMSI

• Continuous demand for IT workers throughout the recession– Specialized programmers, engineers, network systems managers & analystsg y

• Continuous professional/skill development– Technology leads to rapid erosion of skillsN d f t t l k l d f lti l fi ld• Need for contextual knowledge from multiple fields– E.g., IT/healthcare, IT/Finance

29

Page 30: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Where the Jobs Will Be:dHeadquarters

E t Cl t E t Cl t Δ E 2009 M di Ed ti l

Key Industry Trends• Found across a wide array of clusters – health care, 

finance/insurance, manufacturing, information, restaurants, etc.SOC Occupation

Est Cluster Emp 2009

Est Cluster Emp 2019

Δ Emp 2009 -2019

Median Earnings

Educational Requirements

43-4051 Customer service representatives 570 990 420 $14.23 Moderate-term OJT11-9199 Managers, all other 514 600 86 $20.27 Work exp. in a related field11-1021 General & operations managers 505 803 298 $38.37 Degree plus work exp.11 1011 Chief executives 422 522 100 $39 94 Degree plus work exp

• Growth projected in these activities, competing for regional and national HQs

11-1011 Chief executives 422 522 100 $39.94 Degree plus work exp.11-3031 Financial managers 376 657 281 $33.40 Degree plus work exp.Source: EMSIKey Occupations and Workforce Issues• Executives and managers• Finance professionals• Finance professionals• Administrative personnel• Customer service representatives

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Page 31: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Where the Jobs Will Be:h dFinance & Shared Services

Key Industries in Cluster

Est Cluster Est Cluster Δ Emp 2009 Median Educational

Key Industries in Cluster• Traditional and specialty insurance, accounting, and regional bankingD t i i di l tili ti t iSOC Occupation Emp 2009 Emp 2019 - 2019 Earnings Requirements

41-3021 Insurance sales agents 5,247 5,710 463 $17.20 Bachelor's degree13-2052 Personal financial advisors 4,230 5,832 1,602 $14.93 Bachelor's degree43-4051 Customer service representatives 3,564 4,009 445 $14.23 Moderate-term OJT13-2011 Accountants & auditors 3,540 4,804 1,264 $21.89 Bachelor's degree

• Data mining, medical utilization management, insurance intermediation, and employee benefit consulting

, , , $ g

41-3031Securities, commodities, & financial services sales agents 3,036 4,124 1,088 $17.42 Bachelor's degree

Source: EMSI

Key Occupations and Workforce Issues• Jobs of varying skill‐level required across the industryI d d kill i l d B i IT i ti bilit t• In demand skills include: Basic IT, communication, ability to manage high skill and technical people

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Page 32: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Where the Jobs Will Be:Creative Economy

Key Industry Trends

Est Cluster Est Cluster Δ Emp 2009 - Median Educational

Key Industry Trends

• Large proportion of proprietors and independent artists

• Recession’s reduce willingness for individuals risk‐takingSOC Occupation Emp 2009 Emp 2019 2019 Earnings Requirements

27-3043 Writers & authors 3,696 4,329 633 $11.23 Bachelor's degree27-2042 Musicians & singers 3,348 3,068 (280) $18.05 Long-term OJT27-2041 Music directors & composers 1,898 2,193 295 $10.15 Degree plus work exp.

Entertainers & performers, sports

Recession s reduce willingness for individuals risk taking

• Importance of the region’s artistic “milieu” as an amenity for other high skill sectors

27-2099p , p

& related workers, all other 1,697 1,560 (137) $12.33 Long-term OJT27-1014 Multi-media artists & animators 1,048 1,206 158 $12.70 Bachelor's degreeSource: EMSIKey Occupations and Workforce Issues

I d d d f id ( i i )• Increased demand for content providers (writers, artists)

• Need for business and career management skills (e.g., music management) integrated with “talent”management) integrated with  talent

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Page 33: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Where the Jobs Will Be:  d d fAdvanced Manufacturing

SOC OccupationEst Cluster Emp 2009

Est Cluster Emp 2019

Δ Emp 2009 -2019

Median Earnings

Educational Requirements

Key Industry Trends• Investments in capital lead to increased productivity, but also job 

lSOC Occupation Emp 2009 Emp 2019 2019 Earnings Requirements51-2092 Team assemblers 5,673 4,810 (863) $18.79 Moderate-term OJT

51-2099 Assemblers & fabricators, all other 3,020 2,696 (324) $15.73 Moderate-term OJT51-9199 Production workers, all other 1,003 873 (130) $13.57 Moderate-term OJT

First line supervisors/managers of

loss• Major “unexpected” investments can change projections

51-1011First-line supervisors/managers of production & operating workers 981 792 (189) $23.49 Work exp. in a related field

51-4041 Machinists 942 739 (203) $20.43 Long-term OJTSource: EMSI

Key Occupations and Workforce Issues• Replacements and incumbents alike will need: increased technical 

skills greater flexibility across jobs and occupationsskills, greater flexibility across jobs and occupations• Firms looking for:

– Machine operators, industrial engineering techsCh i l d l i i– Chemical and electronic engineers

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Page 34: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Where the Jobs Will Be:  b d

Key Industry Trends

Distribution and Logistics

SOC OccupationEst Cluster Emp 2009

Est Cluster Emp 2019

Δ Emp 2009 - 2019

Median Earnings

Educational Requirements

53-3032 Truck drivers, heavy & tractor-trailer 8,658 9,427 769 $18.14 Moderate-term OJT

53 7062 Laborers & freight, stock, &

• Increase in sophisticated information management systems

• Traditional retailers and wholesalers are assuming greater role in di t ib ti ti iti53-7062 g , ,

material movers, hand 3,587 3,591 4 $10.93 Short-term OJT

53-3033 Truck drivers, light or delivery services 1,787 1,944 157 $16.31 Short-term OJTSales representatives, wholesale &

distribution activities

Key Occupations and Workforce Issues41-4011p ,

manufacturing, technical & scientific products 1,370 1,471 101 $23.73 Moderate-term OJT

41-4012Sales representatives, wholesale & manufacturing, except technical &

Key Occupations and Workforce Issues

• Increased demand for heavy truck drivers with CDL and updated safety certifications

scientific products 1,289 1,343 54 $23.81 Moderate-term OJTSource: EMSI• Increased demand for IT and engineering personnel familiar with 

logistics operations

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Page 35: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Where the Jobs Will Be: l

Key Industry Trends

Hospitality

SOC OccupationEst Cluster Emp 2009

Est Cluster Emp 2019

Δ Emp 2009 - 2019

Median Earnings

Educational Requirements

• Huge impacts from spring flooding, future growth from new projects– Music City Convention Center downtown

• Declines in business and leisure travel may begin to see the “light at p p p g q35-3031 Waiters & waitresses 16,717 19,093 2,376 $8.44 Short-term OJT

35-3021 Combined food preparation & serving workers, including fast food 15,462 14,241 (1,221) $8.07 Short-term OJT

35-2014 Cooks, restaurant 6,196 7,153 957 $10.90 Long-term OJT11-9051 Food service managers 4,441 5,205 764 $18.22 Work exp. in a related field

the end of the tunnel”

Key Occupations and Workforce Issues35-1012

First-line spvrs. /mgrs. of food preparation & serving workers 4,324 4,380 56 $13.20 Work exp. in a related field

Source: EMSI

y p• Most in‐demand occupations require OJT• Greater need  for incumbent worker supervisory and customer 

service skill trainingg– STEM areas in food, worker, and customer safety

• Older workforce reduces turnover– e.g., front desk and housekeeping personnelg , p g p

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Page 36: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Where the Jobs Will Be:ConstructionConstruction

Key Industry Trends

SOC OccupationEst Cluster Emp 2009

Est Cluster Emp 2019

Δ Emp 2009 - 2019

Median Earnings

Educational Requirements

• Recession have great impact on regional construction industry, but several large projects will create opportunity

• Significant changes afoot in construction methods and processesSOC Occupation Emp 2009 Emp 2019 2019 Earnings Requirements47-2031 Carpenters 7,805 8,512 707 $20.87 Long-term OJT47-2061 Construction laborers 6,767 8,074 1,307 $16.37 Moderate-term OJT

47-1011First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades & extraction workers

5,501 6,362 861 $23.39 Work exp. in a related field

g g p– LEED and green‐related construction outpacing the market’s willingness to pay 

a premium

– Adoption of building information modeling (BIM) in the design phase will likely workers11-9021 Construction managers 5,035 5,653 618 $23.60 Bachelor's degree47-2111 Electricians 3,476 4,660 1,184 $19.33 Long-term OJTSource: EMSI

p g g ( ) g p yimprove construction processes, reduce down time and costs

Key Occupations and Workforce Issues• Continued gap in finding electricians and carpenters with appropriate skills

G t d f i ti j t l t d t ti• Greater need for existing project managers, selected construction engineers, and/or front‐line supervisors– Need for some additional skills to improve competitive position 36

Page 37: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Summary: Key ClustersSummary:  Key ClustersWhere the Jobs Will Be… 

EventuallyWhere Key Challenges Exist

Eventually• Health Care• Headquarters

• Construction 

• Advanced Mfg• Finance & Shared Services• Distribution and Logistics

I f ti T h l

Advanced Mfg 

• Creative Economy

• Information Technology, esp. for– Health care– Logistics– Finance

• Hospitality

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Page 38: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Policy ImplicationsChallenge Strategy Recommendations

• Improve information dissemination about job opportunities (e.g., web‐scraping & real‐time LMI)

• Improve efficiency of labor market exchange (e.g., www.myskillsmyfuture.org) 

• Improve information dissemination about job opportunities (e.g., web‐scraping & real‐time LMI)

• Improve efficiency of labor market exchange (e.g., www.myskillsmyfuture.org) 

Short‐term unemployment

• Target training for incumbent workers (to save jobs)• Target training for incumbent workers (to save jobs)

• Increase labor force participation among older and special populations

• Increase labor force participation among older and special populationsLong‐term worker 

h • Reinforce in‐migration (and retention) of skilled workers through unique amenities & academic programs

• Reinforce in‐migration (and retention) of skilled workers through unique amenities & academic programs

shortages

• Identify specialized education/training needs for target sectors

• Identify specialized education/training needs for target sectorssectors

• Fill curriculum and program gaps and provide contextual learning opportunities to meet sector SKILL needs

• Expand internships/apprenticeships at colleges and universities to help with work readiness

sectors• Fill curriculum and program gaps and provide contextual learning opportunities to meet sector SKILL needs

• Expand internships/apprenticeships at colleges and universities to help with work readiness

Targeting to growth sectors

universities to help with work readinessuniversities to help with work readiness

• Increase career education esp. re: high skill high demand occupations

• Increase college graduation rates, esp. STEM disciplines

• Increase career education esp. re: high skill high demand occupations

• Increase college graduation rates, esp. STEM disciplinesPreparing the talent 

pipeline • Enable greater access and incent completion of post‐secondary programs through support programs

• Enable greater access and incent completion of post‐secondary programs through support programs

pipeline

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Page 39: Nashville data presentation 092910 330pm 45 minute€¦ · Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006‐2008) $55,452 Gd t f i l $63,174 $43,095 $54,165 $45,477 Bachelor's de gree Graduate

Thank you

For more information:

Ken Poole [email protected]

Mark White [email protected]

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