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8/6/2019 National Australia Bank Monthly Business Survey for May
2011 (Released on 06 June 2011)
1/13
No embargo
6 June 2011
Monthly Business Survey Changes to surveyUsers of the NAB
business surveys should note the following data changes effective
from theMay monthly survey to be released 14 June 2011.
Seasonal reanalysis Many of the series in the NAB business
surveys are seasonally adjusted. The seasonal
factors are estimated periodically and forward estimates of the
factors are used to adjustthe most recent data. Starting with the
May issue of the NAB monthly business survey,seasonal factors will
be continuously re-estimated to avoid the need for forward
estimates.This means that the seasonally adjusted data will be
revised more frequently.
There will be revisions to existing seasonally adjusted series.
To provide an indication ofthe likely extent of revision, a
comparison of the major seasonally adjusted monthly seriesas
published in April and as they would have appeared had they been
seasonally adjustedin April is attached. Note that historical
observations from the April-revised series maychange when seasonal
factors are recalculated in the May release.
Export sales The export sales series in the NAB business surveys
has been calculated as the net
balance of businesses reporting increased or decreased export
sales during the period inquestion divided by the proportion of
exporting businesses. The intention is that the serieswill detect a
change in export conditions faced by exporting businesses. The
existingmeasure is really an indicator of exporters sales.
However, if the net balance changes only because of a change in
the proportion of firms inthe economy that are exporting, exporters
sales should be unchanged but exportconditions for the economy as a
whole (the unadjusted net balance) would change.Economy wide
exportsare represented by the unadjusted net balance, but in the
past thishas not been published.
Starting with the May issue of the NAB monthly business survey,
the current export sales
index will be renamed the exporters sales index and the
unadjusted net balance for allfirms (including non-exporters) will
also be included as the exportsindex. A comparison ofthese series
is attached.
Revision of monthly prices and costs For the mid-month of each
quarter (February, May, August and November), the changes in
prices and costs are based on responses to an interim reading of
the quarterly survey. Theother monthly observations have been
multiplied by three to convert them to a quarterlybasis. However,
it appears that some respondents to the interim quarterly survey
arequoting a monthly, rather than quarterly, change, making the
difference smaller. Analysis ofa large number of observations for
these series indicates that the quarterly observationsare between
1.5 and 2 times the monthly rates, depending on the series. The
impact ofchanging these adjustment factors is attached.
Seasonal adjustment of additional series Seasonality has been
detected in several additional series in the NAB monthly
survey.
These are: exports, exporters sales, purchase costs and capital
expenditure.
These series have been calculated as they would have appeared
had they beenseasonally adjusted in April and are attached. Note
that historical observations from theApril-revised series may
change when seasonal factors are recalculated in the
Mayrelease.
For more information contact:Alan Oster, Chief Economist(03)
8634 2927 0414 444 652
Next release: 14 June 2011 (May monthly)
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2/13
No embargo
Seasonal reanalysis
Business confidence
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
New
Old
Seasonally adjusted
Business conditions
-24
-16
-8
0
8
16
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-24
-16
-8
0
8
16
Net
bal
Net
bal
New
Old
Seasonally adjusted
Trading conditions
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Net
bal
Net
bal
New
Old
Seasonally adjusted
Profitability
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
New
Old
Seasonally adjusted
Employment
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
balNew
Old
Seasonally adjusted
Forward orders
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
New
Old
Seasonally adjusted
2
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No embargo
Stocks
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Net
bal
Net
bal
New
Old
Seasonally adjusted
Capacity utilisation
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
% %
New
Old
Seasonally adjusted
Impacts of seasonal reanalysis on key business survey series
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011
2011 2011
Business confidence: new 11 9 6 -1 8 10 7 7
Business confidence: old 10 8 6 -3 4 14 9 7
Business conditions: new 7 1 4 3 -5 0 10 5
Business conditions: old 7 2 4 6 -6 -2 9 5
Trading: new 11 4 4 5 -6 1 15 7
Trading: old 13 4 4 9 -7 -3 15 6
Profitability: new 5 -3 2 0 -9 -3 11 3
Profitability: old 6 -4 2 3 -10 -5 10 4
Employment: new 3 4 6 4 0 4 2 4
Employment: old 2 6 5 6 0 1 3 5
Forward orders: new 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 2 -1
Forward orders: old 4 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 3 0
Stocks: new 3 2 0 4 -1 -1 2 3
Stocks: old 3 7 1 5 -1 -4 3 3
Capacity utilisation rate: new 81.8 80.8 81.1 81.9 80.3 81.2
81.6 81.8
Capacity utilisation rate: old 81.6 81.1 81.0 82.3 80.5 81.1
81.5 81.8
Net balance
Per cent
The appendix contains sets of more detailed comparisons of key
summary measures forindustries and states.
3
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No embargo
Export sales
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Exports Exporters' sales
Exports & exporters' sales
The exports index is a new series thatrepresents the net balance
for exports acrossthe whole economy, including businesses thathad
no exports.
The exporters sales index (formerly exportsales index)
represents the net balance forthe exports of exporters only.
Note that the exporters sales index declinedmore rapidly than
the exports index in 2008.This reflected a decrease at that time in
theproportion of businesses that were exporting.
Exports and exporters sales, original
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011
Net balance
Exports (new series) -1 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 -1 -1
Exporters' sales -5 -13 -10 -15 -22 -17 -5 -6
Previously "export sales"
Revision of monthly prices and costs
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.0
May-00 May-02 May-04 May-06 May-08 May-10
Final product prices Purchase costs
Labour costs
Ratio of average monthly to interim quarterlyThe key series
involved are final productprices (total and retail), purchase costs
andlabour costs. For the mid-month of eachquarter, the changes in
prices and costs arebased on responses to an interim reading ofthe
quarterly survey. This is assumed to be aquarterly change. The
other monthlyobservations have been multiplied by three toconvert
them to a quarterly basis.
However, it is possible that some respondentsto the interim
quarterly survey are quoting amonthly, rather than quarterly,
change. This
means that the true interim quarterly changemight be smaller
than three times the monthlychange.
The true monthly data were estimated usingthe average of the
immediately preceding andfollowing months for each series. If
theexisting procedure is correct, the truemonthly data should be
one-third of theinterim quarterly data on average.
The ratios were generally well above the assumed value of
one-third (see chart where someextreme values have been removed),
with a statistically significant difference at the 1% level.The
long-term average ratios were estimated to be: 0.56 (final product
prices), 0.65 (purchase
costs) and 0.60 (labour costs).
4
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No embargo
Revision of monthly prices and costs (cont.)
Consequently, the interim quarterly data tends to under-estimate
the true quarterly change andneeds to be multiplied by more than
one-third to convert it to a monthly basis. These
adjustedobservations for each mid-month of quarter are combined
with the other monthly observationsto produce an adjusted monthly
series. To express this adjusted monthly series at a quarterly
rate, it is then multiplied by three. For each month in the
middle of the quarter this yields anestimate higher than the
interim quarterly observation. Consequently, the new prices and
costsseries tend to be higher on average than the existing
series.
Final prices
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
% %
Old
Monthly % change at a quarterly rate; seasonally adjusted
New
Final retail prices
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
% %
Old
Monthly % change at a quarterly rate; seasonally adjusted
New
Purchase costs
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
% %
Old (nsa)
Monthly % change at a quarterly rate
New (sa)
Labour costs
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
% %
Old
Monthly % change at a quarterly rate; seasonally adjusted
New
Revised series seasonally adjusted
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011
Labour costs: new 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5
Labour costs: old 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.4
Purchase costs 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.8
Purchase costs: old (n.s.a.) 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.8
Final products prices: new 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Final products prices: old 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Final retail products prices: new 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2
0.1
Final products prices: old -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
% change at quarterly rate
Note that seasonal factors for labour costs and final products
prices have been re-analysed.
Seasonal factors for purchase costs have been applied for the
first time.
5
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6/13
No embargo
Seasonal adjustment of additional series
Exporters' sales
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2006 2008 2010
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Net
bal
Net
bal
New (sa)
Old (nsa)
Capital expenditure
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2008 2010
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
New (sa)
Old (nsa)
New seasonally adjusted series
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011
Exports (new series) -1 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 -1 -1
Exports (new series) s.a. -2 -4 -3 -2 -4 -3 -1 -1
Exporters' sales -5 -13 -10 -15 -22 -17 -5 -6
Exporters' sales, s.a. -7 -15 -13 -11 -15 -14 -1 -7
Previously "export sales"
Capital expenditure 4 7 10 2 -7 5 7 6
Capital expenditure, s.a. 2 5 8 6 3 5 7 6
Net balance
Purchase costs are shown in previous table.
Sample summary table
Had these changes been implemented in the April survey, the
summary table would haveappeared as follows.
Feb Mar Apr Feb Mar Apr
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011
Net balance Net balance
Business confidence 10 7 7 Employment 4 2 4
Business conditions 0 10 5 Forward orders -1 2 -1
Trading 1 15 7 Stocks -1 2 3
Profitability -3 11 3 Exports -3 -1 -1
% change at quarterly rate % change at quarterly rate Labour
costs 1.1 1.1 1.5 Retail prices 0.0 0.2 0.1
Purchase costs 0.8 1.0 1.0 Per cent
Final products pr ices 0.5 0.6 0.6 Capacity utilisation rate
81.2 81.6 81.8
6
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7/13
No embargo
Appendix: seasonal reanalysis of industry data
Business conditions: Mining
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business conditions: Manufacturing
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business conditions: Construction
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business conditions: Retail
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
balOld
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business conditions: Wholesale
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business conditions: Transport & utilities
7
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8/13
No embargo
Appendix: seasonal reanalysis of industry data (cont.)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business conditions: Finance/business/property
-10
0
10
20
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-10
0
10
20
30
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business conditions: Recreation & personal
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Net
bal
Net
balOld
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business confidence: Mining
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business confidence: Manufacturing
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business confidence: Construction Business confidence:
Retail
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
8
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9/13
No embargo
Appendix: seasonal reanalysis of industry data (cont.)
Business confidence: Wholesale
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
balOld
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business confidence: Transport & utilities
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business confidence: Finance/business/property
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
balOld
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business confidence: Recreation & personal
Employment: Mining
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Employment: Manufacturing
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
9
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10/13
No embargo
Appendix: seasonal reanalysis of industry data (cont.)
Employment: Construction
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Employment: Retail
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Employment: Wholesale
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
balOld
New
Seasonally adjusted
Employment: Transport & utilities
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Employment: Finance/business/property
-20
-10
0
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-20
-10
0
10
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Employment: Recreation & personal
10
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11/13
No embargo
Appendix: seasonal reanalysis of state data
Business conditions: NSW
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business conditions: VIC
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business conditions: QLD
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business conditions: SA
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business conditions: WA
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business conditions: TAS
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old New
Seasonally adjusted
11
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12/13
No embargo
Appendix: seasonal reanalysis of state data (cont.)
Business confidence: NSW
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business confidence: VIC
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business confidence: QLD
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
balOld
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business confidence: SA
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business confidence: WA
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
Business confidence: TAS
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Net
bal
Net
bal
Old
New
Seasonally adjusted
12
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13/13
Macroeconomic, Industry & Markets ResearchAustralia
Alan Oster Group Chief Economist +(61 3) 8634 2927
Jacqui Brand Personal Assistant +(61 3) 8634 2181
Rob Brooker Head of Australian Economics & Commodities +(61
3) 8634 1663
Alexandra Knight Economist Australia +(61 3) 9208 8035Ben
Westmore Economist Australia & Commodities +(61 3) 8634
8602
Michael Creed Economist Agribusiness +(61 3) 8634 3470
Dean Pearson Head of Industry Analysis +(61 3) 8634 2331
Gerard Burg Economist Industry Analysis +(61 3) 8634 2788
Robert De Iure Economist Property +(61 3) 8634 4611
Brien McDonald Economist Industry Analysis & Risk Metrics
+(61 3) 8634 3837
Tom Taylor Head of International Economics +(61 3) 8634 1883
John Sharma Economist Country Risk +(61 3) 8634 4514
Tony Kelly Economist International +(61 3) 9208 5049
James Glenn Economist Asia +(61 3) 9208 8129
Global Markets Research - Wholesale Banking
Peter Jolly Head of Markets Research +(61 2) 9237 1406
Robert Henderson Chief Economist Markets - Australia +(61 2)
9237 1836
Spiros Papadopoulos Senior Economist Markets +(61 3) 8641
0978
David de Garis Senior Economist Markets +(61 3) 8641 3045
New ZealandTony Alexander Chief Economist BNZ +(64 4)474
6744Stephen Toplis Head of Research, NZ +(64 4) 474 6905Craig Ebert
Senior Economist, NZ +(64 4) 474 6799Doug Steel Markets Economist,
NZ +(64 4) 474 6923
London
Tom Vosa Head of Market Economics - Europe +(44 20) 7710
1573David Tinsley Market Economist Europe +(44 20) 7710 2910
Foreign Exchange Fixed Interest/Derivati ves
Sydney +800 9295 1100 +(61 2) 9295 1166
Melbourne +800 842 3301 +(61 3) 9277 3321
Wellington +800 64 642 222 +800 64 644 464
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Singapore +(65) 338 0019 +(65) 338 1789
DISCLAIMER: [While care has been taken in preparing this
material,] National Australia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937)
does not warrant or represent that the information,recommendations,
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