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NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
HEALTH CAPITAL AND THE PRENATAL ENVIRONMENT:THE EFFECT OF MATERNAL FASTING DURING PREGNANCY
Douglas AlmondBhashkar Mazumder
Working Paper 14428http://www.nber.org/papers/w14428
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138October 2008
We gratefully acknowledge comments from seminar participants at the NBER Cohorts meeting Spring2007, UC Davis, Chicago Harris, the National Poverty Center Life Events Conference, Brown University,Stockholm University (IIES), the NBER Childrens Program, the University of Illinois (Chicago), theFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Notre Dame, the Tinbergen Institute, Bristol University, UVA,Cornell, and the University of Chicago (Booth School of Business). We also thank Lena Almond,Hoyt Bleakley, Janet Currie, Carlos Dobkin, Phoebe Ellsworth, Andrew Gelman, Jon Guryan, JimHeckman, Hilary Hoynes, Darren Lubotsky, Doug Miller, Kevin Milligan, Diane Whitmore-Schanzenbach,and Kosali Simon for helpful comments. We thank Ana Rocca, Kenley Barrett, Sarena Goodman,and Shyue-Ming Loh for excellent research assistance and Christine Pal for careful copy editing. Theviews expressed here do not reflect the views of the Federal Reserve system, nor those of the NationalBureau of Economic Research.
NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies officialNBER publications.
© 2008 by Douglas Almond and Bhashkar Mazumder. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, notto exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including© notice, is given to the source.
Health Capital and the Prenatal Environment: The Effect of Maternal Fasting During PregnancyDouglas Almond and Bhashkar MazumderNBER Working Paper No. 14428October 2008, Revised May 2010JEL No. I1,I12,J1,J14
ABSTRACT
We use the Islamic holy month of Ramadan as a natural experiment in fasting and fetal health. In Michiganbirths 1989-2006, we find prenatal exposure to Ramadan among Arab mothers results in lower birthweightand reduced gestation length. Exposure to Ramadan in the first month of gestation is also associatedwith a sizable reduction in the number of male births. In Census data for Uganda, Iraq, and the USwe find strong associations between in utero exposure to Ramadan and the likelihood of being disabledas an adult. Effects are particularly large for mental (or learning) disabilities. We also find significanteffects on proxies for wealth, earnings, the sex composition of the adult population, and more suggestiveevidence of effects on schooling. We find no evidence that negative selection in conceptions duringRamadan accounts for our findings, suggesting that avoiding Ramadan exposure during pregnancyis costly or the long-term effects of fasting unknown.
Douglas AlmondDepartment of EconomicsColumbia UniversityInternational Affairs Building, MC 3308420 West 118th StreetNew York, NY 10027and [email protected]
Bhashkar MazumderFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago230 S. LaSalle StreetChicago, IL [email protected]
1 Introduction
Restricted maternal nutrition during critical windows of fetal development can lead to
adaptive physiologic responses that are irreversible and later lead to poor adult outcomes
[Gluckman and Hanson, 2005]. Recent studies by economists have utilized exogenous
shocks “caused by conditions outside the control of the mother” [Currie, 2009] to provide
compelling observational evidence on the importance of prenatal development, which can
impact both subsequent health capital and skill formation [Cunha and Heckman, 2007].
These studies have typically leveraged uncommon and severe historical events, such as
exposure to famine or infectious disease, for identification. It has yet to be established,
however, whether more commonly encountered circumstances also exert significant long-
term effects. Such exposures are not only more directly relevant to the physiologic path-
ways described in the biomedical literature, but also may be more amenable to policy
intervention.
In this study, we consider a common early-childhood exposure that is ongoing today:
disruptions to the timing of prenatal nutrition from meal skipping or dieting during preg-
nancy.1 Specifically we consider the effects of maternal fasting. Muslims generally fast
each day during the lunar month of Ramadan. Fasting includes abstaining from eating
and drinking during daylight hours. Certain persons are automatically exempted from
fasting: “children, those who are ill or too elderly, those who are traveling, and women
who are menstruating, have just given birth, or are breast feeding” [Esposito, 2003]. Preg-
nant women are not explicitly exempted. Three in four Muslim pregnancies overlap with
Ramadan and surveys indicate the majority of pregnant Muslims observe the fast.
Previous studies have shown that fasts associated with Ramadan during pregnancy
can lead to sharp declines in maternal glucose levels along with other biochemical changes
[Prentice et al., 1983, Malhotra et al., 1989]. The supply of glucose and oxygen are
considered to be the key signals of the maternal environment during early embryonic
development and disruptions in their availability can lead to permanent physiological
adaptations that may later lead to disease [Gluckman and Hanson, 2005]. Therefore,
repeated maternal fasting during pregnancy may present a more direct way to assess
1Nearly 1 in 4 women report skipping meals during pregnancy in the US [Siega-Riz et al., 2001].
1
the long term effects of alterations in the fetal environment than other more indirect
treatments such as exposure to disease. We provide new evidence on fasting’s effects on
birth outcomes and the first evidence of effects later in life using large-sample microdata
on Muslims in the United States, Iraq, and Uganda.
Our methodological approach addresses a key flaw in previous studies of Ramadan fast-
ing and birth outcomes. These epidemiological studies have compared pregnant women
who fasted to those who did not at a point in time, under the basic assumption that the de-
cision to fast is exogenous.2 Instead, we compare births over many years where Ramadan
overlaps with pregnancy to those where Ramadan does not and estimate the reduced
form effect of Ramadan’s timing.3 That is, we estimate an “intent to treat” (ITT) effect
without relying on the decision whether to fast for identification.4 This approach yields
distinct ITT estimates for specific months of gestation; Muslim births where Ramadans
falls in the early postnatal period serve as the control group. Because Ramadan follows
a lunar calendar, its occurrence moves forward by roughly 11 days each year. Thus, we
can disentangle the effect of prenatal overlap with Ramadan from season of birth, which
is also related to health in adulthood [Doblhammer and Vaupel, 2001, Costa and Lahey,
2005, Costa et al., 2007, Buckles and Hungerman, 2008].
Using natality data from Michigan, we find that prenatal exposure to Ramadan low-
ers birth weight and reduces gestation length. Further, the likelihood of a male birth
is about 10% lower when Ramadan falls very early in pregnancy and occurs during the
peak period of daylight fasting hours. Using Census data for the United States, Iraq, and
Uganda we find long-term effects on adult health and economic outcomes. We generally
find the largest effects on adults when Ramadan falls early in pregnancy. Rates of adult
disability are roughly 20% higher, with specific mental disabilities showing substantially
larger effects. Our estimates are conservative to the extent that Ramadan is not univer-
sally observed. Importantly, we detect no corresponding outcome differences when the
2Pre-pregnancy BMI, along with other characteristics, has been found to predict fasting observance[Kavehmanesh and Abolghasemi, 2004].
3We do not observe whether mothers fasted in our data. See Section 6.4We draw an analogy with research designs where there is random assignment to treatment and control
groups but where compliance may be endogenous. In our case we assume that the timing of Ramadanrelative to pregnancy is exogenous, but that the decision to fast is endogenous and is not universallyobserved.
2
same design is applied to non-Muslims as a falsification test.
As we discuss in Section 2, our findings are plausible in the context of the biomedical
literature where studies have documented that even relatively short fasts result in dra-
matic changes in the metabolic biochemical profiles of pregnant mothers, a phenomenon
known as “accelerated starvation”. For this reason, medical authorities generally discour-
age meal skipping during pregnancy. Accelerated starvation has specifically been found
in the context of Ramadan fasting in multiple countries suggesting that Ramadan is of
direct relevance to more general concerns about meal skipping or dieting during preg-
nancy. The altered metabolic profiles that occur with fasting have been associated with
diminished cognitive function during childhood and experimental animal studies suggest
that these alterations may hamper neurological development. One recent study has doc-
umented heightened levels of the hormone cortisol among pregnant women fasting during
Ramadan [Dikensoy et al., 2009], which has been associated with adverse long-term health
effects through fetal programming of the neuro-endocrine system. Our results are also
consistent with studies of the Dutch famine and 1918 Influenza Pandemic which found par-
ticularly large long-term health effects associated with early-pregnancy exposure. Several
studies have also documented that maternal nutrition during pregnancy varies positively
with male births (in the cross-section). One specific hypothesis suggests that a drop in
maternal glucose levels provides a signal of a poor future environment leading to fewer
completed pregnancies of male offspring.
Our identifying assumption is that pregnancies are not timed relative to Ramadan
along unobserved determinants of health. We present evidence that pre-determined ma-
ternal and paternal characteristics are not systematically related to the timing of concep-
tion relative to Ramadan. In our Michigan data, we observe maternal education, whether
previous birth was low birth weight, maternal diabetes, whether mother smoked, and
whether Medicaid paid for the delivery: each is unrelated to the timing of pregnancy
relative to Ramadan. Not surprisingly, controlling for these factors has a negligible effect
on our ITT estimates.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes previous
epidemiological work on Ramadan and health, referencing additional supporting material
in the Appendix. Section 3 describes our natality and Census data, ITT measures, and
3
econometric model. Section 4 presents our results for birth outcomes in Michigan and
Section 5 describes our findings for adult outcomes in Uganda, Iraq, and the US. Section
6 synthesizes and interprets our results and discusses future research.
2 Previous Literature
We briefly discuss previous studies relating maternal fasting to health or human capital
outcomes. In the interest of space, we refer the reader to additional background material
in Appendix, Section A.5 In discussing previous work on fasting and health it is instruc-
tive to separate studies that have evaluated: 1) measures of maternal and fetal health
during pregnancy, and; 2) health at birth. In contrast to prenatal health, measurement
of newborn health is relatively standardized (e.g., by birth weight or infant mortality).
However, studies of maternal and fetal health allow for comparisons over time for the
same pregnancy – in and out of the fasting state – addressing the potential endogeneity
of the fasting decision.
Our review of the previous literature is distilled into several hypotheses that are laid
out in Appendix Table A1 which we use to inform our analysis. The table highlights which
outcomes may be affected and which specific months of pregnancy are most vulnerable to
exposure to fasting for each outcome. Fasting early in pregnancy is most likely to matter
for adult outcomes whereas birth outcomes (e.g. birthweight) could potentially be affected
throughout gestation.
2.1 Ramadan and Health During Pregnancy
Writing in The Lancet, Metzger et al. [1982] documented a set of divergent biochemical
measures among pregnant women who skipped breakfast in the second half of pregnancy.
Relative to twenty-seven non-pregnant women with similar characteristics, “circulating
fuels and glucoregulatory hormones” changed profoundly in twenty-one pregnant women
when the “overnight fast” was extended to noon on the following day (relative to post-
5Appendix Section A summarizes the effects of fasting on caloric intake and weight gain; the ratesof observance of Ramadan fasting by pregnant women; the potential health effects of maternal biochem-ical changes on offspring; fasting and fetal programming; studies of Ramadan fasting’s effect on birthoutcomes; and our hypotheses relating specific periods of exposure to particular outcomes.
4
prandial baseline). Further, plasma glucose and alanine was lower in the pregnant women
than in the non-pregnant women after 12 hours of fasting while levels of free fatty acids
and beta-hydroxybutyrate, a ketone, were significantly higher. This set of biochemi-
cal changes, also known as “accelerated starvation”, occurred after only “minor dietary
deprivation” for both lean and obese women. Metzger et al. [1982] concluded that meal-
skipping “should be avoided during normal pregnancy.” Meis and Swain [1984] found
that daytime fasts during pregnancy caused significantly lower glucose concentrations
than nighttime fasts. Accelerated starvation has been associated with diminished cog-
nitive function [Rizzo et al., 1991] and animal studies have linked ketone exposure very
early in pregnancy to neurological impairments[Hunter and Sadler, 1987, Moore et al.,
1989, Sheehan et al., 1985]. Gluckman and Hanson [2005] emphasize the importance of
glucose supply during early embryonic development noting that “the developing embryo
will change the relative assignment of cells to the inner cell and outer cell mass according
to whether it perceives a problem in glucose supply” and show that among rats “poor
maternal nutrition at this stage produces offspring with higher blood pressure”.
According to survey data, most pregnant Muslims observe the Ramadan fast (See
Appendix Section A.1.2 for details). Following the study of breakfast skipping by Metzger
et al. [1982], Ramadan fasting was likewise found to cause accelerated starvation among
pregnant women in Gambia [Prentice et al., 1983] and in England [Malhotra et al., 1989].
Mirghani et al. [2004] found that maternal glucose levels were lower in the fasting state
compared to the postprandial baseline, a difference accentuated by the number days
fasted: “the effect on maternal glucose levels during Ramadan fasting is cumulative.”
Several studies of maternal fasting during Ramadan have found adverse effects carried over
to measures of fetal health: fetal breathing movements and fetal heart rate accelerations
[Mirghani et al., 2004, 2005].
Recently, Dikensoy et al. [2009] reported that Ramadan fasting is associated with
increases in cortisol levels during pregnancy, but not for non-fasting pregnant women
(both relative to pre-pregnancy levels). This finding is of interest because cortisol is
a stress hormone frequently invoked as a potential mechanism through which prenatal
experiences may “program” adult health [Kapoor et al., 2006] (See Appendix Section A.3
for more details).
5
To summarize, there is fairly consistent evidence that fasting during pregnancy has a
“first-stage” effect on maternal and fetal health measures. We summarize the literature
on potential fasting sequelae in Appendix Section A. Despite uncertainty whether these
first stage effects carry over to birth outcomes and longer-term effects (See Section 2.2
below), the Institute of Medicine nevertheless recommends pregnant women should “eat
small to moderate sized meals at regular intervals, and eat nutritious snacks” [Institute of
Medicine, 1992:45]. Similarly, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists
recommends that pregnant women avoid skipping meals.6
2.2 Ramadan and Perinatal Health
Whether there is an effect of fasting on birth outcomes has not been established. However,
it is important to note that measures of birth size are highly imperfect proxies for capturing
nutritional disruptions during embryonic or fetal development [Gluckman and Hanson,
2005]. Therefore, the absence of a finding of effects of fasting on birth weight, for example,
does not preclude the possibility of adverse effects on long-term outcomes. Nevertheless
it is useful to review the previous literature on fasting and birth outcomes. Most previous
studies have drawn comparisons over only a single Ramadan season. Since the panel-data
dimension is generally absent for analyses of birth outcomes, studies have resorted to
strong assumptions on the comparability of fasters and non-fasters. These two groups
are likely different in ways that would generate differences in birth outcomes absent any
causal effect of fasting. Pre-pregnancy BMI, along with other characteristics, has been
found to predict fasting observance [Kavehmanesh and Abolghasemi, 2004]. This basic
weakness in design has been exacerbated by: 1) small sample sizes that in general would
only be able to distinguish quite large effects from zero; 2) consideration of Ramadan fasts
observed exclusively in mid or late gestation. We refer the reader to the more detailed
discussion of these studies in Appendix A.4.1.
No previous study has exploited idiosyncratic variation across birth cohorts in the tim-
ing of Ramadan relative to birth. As Ramadan’s forward movement through the western
calendar is slow, the separation of Ramadan from seasonal effects on birth outcomes (e.g.,
6http://www.acog.org/publications/patient education/bp087.cfm?printerFriendly=yes
6
Doblhammer and Vaupel [2001], Costa and Lahey [2005]) requires data across many birth
years. Data availability, therefore, may have precluded implementation of an ITT analysis
like ours. Similarly, no previous study has exploited the number of daylight hours during
the Ramadan fast for identification (which is clearly not feasible for populations living
near the equator, e.g., in Uganda or Indonesia).
Finally, ours is the first study to analyze the relationship between outcomes in adult-
hood and in utero Ramadan exposure. The study closest to ours in this respect is by
Azizi et al. [2004] who found no significant difference in the IQ’s of school-age children by
maternal fasting behavior during the third trimester (please see Appendix Section A.4.2
for details). Subsequent to our study, Ewijk [2009] analyzed IFLS data from Indonesia,
finding evidence of long-term effects of fasting.7
3 Data and Methodology
Our identification strategy requires microdata with information on:
1. a substantial number of Muslims;
2. precise information on birth date (i.e., more detailed than age in years);
3. coverage of many birth cohorts (i.e., birth years);
4. health outcomes.
In datasets with a large number of both Muslims and non-Muslims, we would also
like to distinguish between these groups. We summarize the handful of suitable datasets
below (see Appendix B for details), followed by our econometric approach.
3.1 Michigan Natality Files
From Michigan’s Division for Vital Records and Health Statistics, we obtained birth cer-
tificate microdata for 1989 to 2006 in Michigan – approximately 2.5 million birth records.8
7Ewijk [2009] graciously notes that we are “the first to systematically examine [Ramadan’s] long-termeffects.”
8We thank Michael Beebe and Glenn Copeland in Michigan’s Vital Statistics Office for their assistancewith these data.
7
Although, there is no information on religion, ancestry of the mother is reported (ances-
try information is not recorded in the national vital statistics data produced by NCHS).
This feature of Michigan’s natality data allows us to construct a proxy for whether the
mother is Muslim based on reported “Arab” ancestry (or reported ancestries from pre-
dominantly Muslim countries).9 Compared to other US states, Michigan has a relatively
large Arab population.10 There are a total of about 50,000 births to mothers of Arab an-
cestry (about 2.2 percent of MI births) over this period. While there is a large population
of Arabs around Detroit, the Arabs are reasonably dispersed throughout the State (see
Appendix Figure A2, Panel A).
Since a large fraction of Arabs in Michigan are actually Chaldeans – a sect of Chris-
tianity – our proxy may misclassify many mothers and thereby attenuate our estimated
effects.11 We use the 2000 US Census SF3 (1 in 6 sample) data to identify Michigan
zipcodes with heavy concentrations of Chaldeans – who presumably do not observe the
fast – relative to Arabs (see Appendix Figure A2, Panel B). In some specifications, we
will drop observations from these zipcodes to compare ITT estimates. Appendix Table
A2 provides summary statistics for Michigan’s natality data.
3.2 Data from National Censuses
To consider whether health in adulthood is affected by prenatal Ramadan exposure, we
analyze Census microdata for the three countries where our identification strategy can
be implemented in publicly-available data. Data from the Uganda 2002 Census are best
suited for our analysis because religion is reported, there are large numbers of both Mus-
lims and non-Muslims in Uganda, month of birth is reported, and a host of disability
measures are queried. While less well-suited to our analysis, 1997 Iraq Census data and
US Census data allow us to assess whether the basic Uganda results are replicated in
other settings.
9See Section B.1 of the Appendix for more detail.10We thank Carlos Dobkin (UCSC) for suggesting we focus on Michigan’s Muslim population.11According to the 2000 Census, about a quarter of those of an Arabic speaking ancestry in Michigan
are Chaldean Christians. Our estimates based on the Detroit Arab American Study (DAAS) suggestthat about 47% of those who self-identify as “Arab American” in the Detroit area are Chaldean.
8
3.2.1 Uganda Census 2002
Our sample of Muslim adults includes approximately 80,000 men and women between
the ages of 20 and 80 in 2002. Muslims constitute about 11% of Uganda’s population
and have more schooling and lower rates of disability than non-Muslims (Appendix Table
A3). Both Muslims and non-Muslims share a strong seasonality in the number of births.
Muslims tend to live in the southeastern portion of the country.
Unlike other national censuses, the Uganda Census asks a battery of questions about
specific disabilities, including: blindness or vision impairments, deafness or hearing im-
pairments, being mute, disabilities affecting lower extremities, disabilities affecting upper
extremities, mental/learning disabilities, and psychological disabilities (lasting six months
or longer). As only about 5% of adults report a disability compared to over 10% in the US
Census, disabilities recorded in the Uganda Census may be more severe. Further, Uganda
reports information on the origin of disabilities: congenital, disease, accident, aging, war
injury, other or multiple causes. In the absence of direct measures of economic status
we use home ownership. We also consider several other socioeconomic outcomes such as
literacy, schooling, and employment.
3.2.2 Iraq Census 1997
Although religion is not reported in the Iraq Census, roughly 97% of the population
is Muslim, minimizing concerns about misclassification of religion. Our main sample
includes over 250,000 individuals born from 1958 to 1977 who were between the ages of
20 and 39 in 1997 and for whom we have reliable information on birth month.12 Because
we only cover 20 birth cohorts compared to 60 in Uganda, we may be more concerned
about confounding from seasonality. In addition, although our sample size is large this is
offset to some degree by surprisingly low rates of reported disabilities. At 1.5%, Iraqis are
substantially less likely than Americans (around 12%) or Ugandans (around 5%) to report
a disability. Part of this is of course, due to the fact that we have a younger sample. Along
with a general disability question, there are specific questions about disabilities involving
sight, hearing, lower extremities, upper extremities, and psychological disabilities. In
12Only 20 percent of those born prior to 1958 provide reliable data on birth month. We discuss thesedata limitations in greater detail in Appendix section B.3
9
contrast to Uganda, there is no variable to assess mental/learning disabilities.
In addition to home ownership, we consider a second proxy for wealth/status, polyg-
yny. Under Iraqi law, courts may only allow polygyny if husbands are able to financially
support multiple wives and if they are able to maintain separate households for each
wife.13 (Iraq Legal Development Project, 2005). More generally, polygyny reflects high
male status [Edlund, 1999]. Since polygyny is relatively infrequent for a young sample,
we expand our sample to include up to 45 year olds. Sample means for our outcomes are
shown with the regression results in Table 7.
3.2.3 US Census 1980, ACS 2005-2007
Our third Census sample is composed of immigrants to the US who were born in pre-
dominantly Muslim countries.14 We use a 6% sample from the 1980 Census along with
a pooled sample of the American Community Surveys (ACS) for the years 2005 through
2007 (3% sample). The ACS is modelled on the long form of the decennial Census. We
use these years because they provide the quarter of birth.15 Not observing birth month
dulls the empirical comparisons that we can make. On the positive side, we obtain a large,
national sample of US immigrants from Muslim countries in which to implement our ITT
analysis. Data quality is high, and includes additional outcomes beyond disability, such
as earnings.16 Selected sample means are shown at the bottom of Table 8.
13Under Iraqi Personal Status Code Number 188, Article 3(4) it is written that: Marriage of morethan one wife is prohibited in the absence of judicial permission on two conditions: (a) The husband hasfinancial sufficiency to marry more than one wife. (b) He should have a legal interest.
Iraqi Personal Status Code Number 188, Article 26 states that: The husband should not house hissecond wife in the same house with the first one without her approval, and should not house any otherrelative with her without her approval, except his minor child.
Roughly 2% of Iraqi men report polygynous unions.14Specifically, we use countries with at least an 80 percent Muslim population. To asses the magnitude
of misclassification attributable to this birth-county proxy, the same proxy variable was created in the2001 Canada Census, which includes self-reported religion. 67% of Canadian immigrants from these 80%Muslim countries reported being Muslim. We thank Kevin Milligan (UBC) for this information. SeeAppendix Section B.5 for additional details.
15In addition to not knowing birth month, we do not know the exact birth year in the ACS since it isnot asked and age is not reported as of a specific enumeration date as it is in the decennial Census. Giventhat Ramadan exposure shifts by only 11 days from year to year, using survey year - age provides agood approximation of birth year for the purposes of constructing Ramadan exposure measures at thequarterly level. The correlation between Ramadan exposure using survey year minus age, and surveyyear minus age minus 1, is about 0.93.
16Specifically we take the log of annual earnings and use the CPI for inflation adjustment. For consis-tency, we restrict the sample to ages between 20 and 80. Earnings are restricted to a sample between the
10
3.3 Ramadan Measures
We record start and end dates for the 104 Ramadans in the 20th century and construct
the following measures of prenatal Ramadan exposure:17
exppct calculates the fraction of days over the subsequent 30 days that overlap with
Ramadan.
exphrspct utilizes the number of daylight hours in each day to proxy for the length of
the Ramadan fast.18 The numerator is the number of daylight hours over the next
30 days that overlap with Ramadan; the denominator is the maximum number of
daylight hours over any 30 day period over the entire sample period (which depends
only on latitude). Daylight hours in Michigan vary from a low of around 9 to a high of
over 15 at the summer solstice when the effects of accelerated starvation may be most
evident. Please see Appendix Figure A3 for a an illustrative example of exphrspct
versus exppct coding from 1989 (and the associated description in Appendix Section
B.1).
rampct is the fraction of days in each month that overlap with Ramadan.19 rampct is
used when we observe just the birth month, as in our Uganda and Iraq samples and
is calculated for each month (not each day as for measures above). As Uganda is at
the equator, the number of daylight hours is fairly constant over the year at 12.
Each of the above measures is calculated at up to nine different points in time corre-
sponding to the gestation months (ten in some specifications where we include the month
prior to conception). exppct and exphrspct are calculated for the day beginning each preg-
nancy month. This feature of our research design is useful as specific health outcomes
ages of 20 and 60.17Many websites translate dates from the Islamic (Hijri) calendar. We used the following website
http://www.oriold.unizh.ch/static/hegira.html, but verified the dates from a second source.18The beginning of the Ramadan fast actually precedes sunrise and begins at the time of the morning
prayer (fajr). The precise timing of the morning prayer may vary across mosques and typically dependson a rule regarding the angle of the sun relative to the horizon. For this reason we actually understatethe number of fasting hours in our data. Daylight hours are measured for the city of Dearborn whichcontains a large share of the state’s Arab population.
19We opted to use this measure, rather than a simple dummy variable since it provides a continuousmeasure of treatment (more power).
11
may be more or less susceptible to nutrition depending on the stage of pregnancy (see
Appendix Table A1 and accompanying text in Appendix Section A). Finally, we construct
a fourth exposure measure by taking the average of rampct for each quarter of the year.
This quarterly measure is used for our US sample, where we observe just the quarter of
birth.
In general, we assign the Ramadan ITT by counting backwards from the birth date.
We consider alternatives to this approach where we have estimates of gestation length
(Michigan). In the rest of our data, we do not observe gestation length. Furthermore,
measurement error in gestation length, commonly based on date of last menstrual period,
may be substantial [Pearl et al., 2007]. For Michigan, we consider the following three
assignment rules:
1. The first approach uses the exact date of birth and simply assumes that all births
have a normal gestation length of 40 weeks since last menstrual period. The Ra-
madan exposure measures are assigned by going backwards from the birth date in
30 day increments and using daily exposure measures (exphrspct and exppct) from
30 days prior to birth to 270 days prior to birth. Using this approach the measure
of Ramadan exposure 9 months prior to birth is a proxy for the actual exposure
during the “first month” of gestation.
2. Our second approach incorporates the measures of gestation from the natality data
to match each individual to an estimated date of conception.20 We then assign
Ramadan exposure for the first month based on the daily exposure measures for the
date that is 4 days prior to the estimated date of conception.21 We then proceed
to assign Ramadan exposure measures forward in 30-day increments. Using this
approach a child born premature after say, 34-35 weeks of gestation would only have
been in utero for about 8 months and therefore only the first 8 exposure variables
are actually relevant for birth outcomes.
20Gestation based on last menstrual period (LMP) is used except if it is missing or if it differs withthe physician estimated gestation by more than 14 days, in which case the physician estimated measureis substituted. The conception date is estimated as occurring 14 days after LMP.
21This ensures that we have lined up the gestation month exposure in a parallel way to that used inthe first approach. In other words, if a birth has exactly 40 weeks or 280 days of gestation, using eitherapproach we will start measuring gestation exactly 270 days prior to birth.
12
3. Our third approach ignores information on exact birth date and actual gestation
and mimics what we can do with our Census samples where we only know month of
birth. Here we match individuals to the rampct measure for each of the 9 months
prior to birth.
3.4 Econometric Model
We regress each outcome, yi, on a set of nine Ramadan exposure measures (either ex-
phrspct, exppct or rampct). Separate exposure measures for each gestation month k are
included simultaneously in each regression, even though an individual will only be exposed
to Ramadan in at most two (adjacent) months of gestation. The effects of Ramadan ex-
posure in a given month of gestation, therefore, are measured relative to no prenatal
exposure to Ramadan – i.e., when Ramadan falls in the two to three months after birth.
yi = α +9∑
k=1
θk · exphrspctk + yeary + monthm + geogg + εi (1)
Additional controls include birth year dummies, a set of calendar birth month dummies
(or conception month dummies if gestation information is used), and a set of dummies
that measure geographic location at the time of birth.22 In the Michigan analysis we
also include a number of largely predetermined variables as additional controls: mother’s
age, mother’s age squared, mother’s years of education, father’s age, father’s age squared,
father’s education, a dummy for missing father’s education, parity, tobacco use during
pregnancy, alcohol use during pregnancy, the number of previous pregnancies where the
child was born dead, and whether the birth was paid for by Medicaid (an income proxy).23
In our pooled samples of adult men and women in Uganda, Iraq, and the US we also
include a female dummy.
In a typical specification where we include the nine exposure measures simultaneously,
we also run an F -test on the joint significance of all nine coefficients. This tests the
overall effect of Ramadan exposure during any point in gestation. In addition, since
22In Michigan we use 84 county dummies. In Uganda we use 56 district of birth dummies. In Iraq weuse 18 governates of birth and in the US we use 38 countries of birth.
23Parity is defined as the number of previous live births. Alcohol and tobacco use are arguably endoge-nous since their use may be reduced during the month of gestation that overlaps with Ramadan.
13
our hypotheses for some outcomes (Table A1) suggest an effect only in specific gestation
months, we also run tests of equality of all coefficients.
When we use a non-Muslim sample as a falsification check (in a separate regression),
the birth timing and birth location effects are allowed to vary across groups (along with
the other parameters). For estimates on population counts by month we use aggregate
measures at the cell level where cells are defined by each of the distinct conception or
birth months over the sample period. For Michigan, this yields 216 cells (18 years × 12
calendar months).
For the adult US sample where we only observe quarter of birth, there is an added
difficulty in identifying a control period with no in utero Ramadan exposure. If we assume
that all births were of normal gestation length, then individuals were in utero for each of
the two quarters prior to the birth quarter, along with some portion of their birth quarter.
This would suggest that we use the quarter three quarters prior to the birth quarter as the
omitted category. A more conservative approach would treat only those with Ramadan
exposure in the two quarters prior to birth as treated and omit both of the other two
birth quarters. We will show results using each of the two approaches.
4 Michigan Results
4.1 Birthweight Weight and Gestation
Table 1 presents the results for birthweight. In the first four columns we assign births
their Ramadan exposures by counting backwards from the date of birth (i.e., ignoring
the reported information on gestation and assuming pregnancies all had normal gestation
length). We designate the coefficients on Ramadan exposure according to the number of
months prior to birth.
Columns (1) and (2) use measures of Ramadan exposure that incorporate hours of
daylight (exphrspct). The first entry of column (1) indicates that birthweight was about
40 grams lower if an Arab mother was in the first month of pregnancy (i.e. nine months
before birth) during the peak period of daylight hours and Ramadan coincided with the
first month of gestation. This result is significant at the 5 percent level. In addition,
14
gestation months 2, 4, and 6 also show significant negative effects of around 40 grams.
We also find that the F -test on the joint importance of all the prenatal Ramadan exposure
measures is significant at the 8 percent level. The test of the equality of coefficients is
not rejected at conventional significance levels.
In column (2), we also include Ramadan exposure 10 months prior to birth as a
falsification and robustness check. As expected there is no detectable effect on birth weight
and its inclusion does not substantially affect the point estimates for other months. In
column (3) we measure Ramadan exposure by the fraction of days in the gestation month
that overlap with Ramadan. This treats a Ramadan falling in winter the same as one
during summer. It also changes the interpretation of the coefficient to reflect the average
effect of Ramadan exposure across all seasons. As expected, this reduces the magnitude
of the estimated effects to around 25-30 grams, which remain statistically different from
zero. In column (4) we again include exposure in the month prior to the beginning of
pregnancy and find no effect. Column (5) ignores information about the exact date of
birth and only utilizes the birth month to assign exposure measures of the fraction of
days in each month that overlap with Ramadan. With this approach we now find only
the second month of gestation to be significant and that the coefficients are far from
jointly significant or significantly different from one another. Nevertheless, the effect size
remains in the 30 gram range. Using only birth month re-allocates some Ramadan ITT
assignments to adjacent months.24
In columns (6)-(9) of Table 1, we assign Ramadan exposure using the time elapsed
since conception, and exclude the 7% of births that are pre-term (< 37 weeks gestation).
This ensures that at least the first 8 exposure measures are reasonably interpretable since
all of these births would have been in utero for 8 months.25 Columns (6) and (7) utilize
the daylight hours index of exposure. We find effects that are statistically significant at
the 5 percent level for exposure in month 1. As in columns (1) and (2), the size of these
effects are between 35 and 40 grams. In column (7) we again show no effect in the month
prior to conception. Thus, the pattern of birth weight effects we find are not an artifact
24For example, the effect of Ramadan falling nine months prior to birth in column (4) appears smoothedinto the adjacent month (8 months before birth) in column (5).
25In our tables we use italics to signify estimates that may include post natal exposure for some samplemembers.
15
of assigning the Ramadan ITT using date of birth. Columns (8) and (9) show smaller
effects from first month exposure when seasonal differences in the length of the diurnal
fast is ignored. The smaller sample used in columns (6) through (9) that ignores gestation
length have considerably higher significance levels on our joint test of an effect across all
gestation months (i.e., when we drop premature births and estimate the specifications
in columns (1)-(5)). This suggests that part of the difference between the two panels of
Table 1 may be due to selection on nearly full-term births. For example, the magnitude
of the effects for Ramadans that fall 4 months prior to birth are attenuated in the full
term sample.
We explore the role of conditioning on different gestation lengths and using a more
restricted sample of zipcodes that excludes zipcodes with a large fraction of Christian
Arabs (Chaldeans) in Appendix Table A4. We note that when we condition on full-
term births (39-42 weeks) and restrict the sample to those with a likely higher degree of
adherence to the fast we find larger ITT effects that are also significant in mid-gestation
months 5 and 7. The associated text in the Appendix discusses impacts on gestation
length itself, which are modest compared to those for intrauterine growth retardation
(IUGR).
4.2 Refutability Check Using Non-Arab Births
Identification of our ITT estimates comes from an idiosyncratic, non-linear function of
date of birth. If this function somehow introduced a mechanical relationship between
birth date and health outcomes (e.g. picking up a time trend), it should also be observed
among non-Muslims. As a check on the validity of the results above, we apply the same
ITT to our non-Arab sample in Table 2. The first six columns assign exposure assuming
normal gestation for the whole sample, while the seventh through ninth columns utilize
the gestation data and present the results for the sample of full-term births. Within each
of these sets of results, we use either all non-Arab mothers or a “super control” group
of non-Arab mothers living in zipcodes without any Arabs (according to the 2000 census
data).26 We find no birthweight effects among non-Arabs comparable to the results in
26The results are unaffected if we use the natality data to identify non-Arab zipcodes. However, giventhat we have more confidence in the reporting of ancestry detail in the Census we opted to use those
16
Table 1.27
4.3 Summary and Discussion of Birth Weight Results
Overall, in utero exposure to Ramadan is associated with lower birth weight among
Michigan’s Arab mothers. A full month of exposure to Ramadan during the peak period
of daylight hours could lead to a reduction in birth weight of about 40 grams especially
when Ramadan falls in the first month of gestation. Nevertheless, the size of this effect is
relatively small: 40 grams is only about 1.2 percent of the mean birth weight for Arabs.
These effects are population averages and do not account for the fact that some fraction
of these women are not actually fasting and more importantly, perhaps, that we may be
including a sizable fraction of Non-Muslim women among the Arabs. Table A4 provides
suggestive evidence that the effects may be larger and also occur during mid-gestation
when we account for these factors. In terms of the birth weight distribution, it appears
that most of the estimated effect for early pregnancy exposure is in the middle of the
distribution (see Appendix Figure A4), rather than a disproportionate increase in the
likelihood of low birth weights. Gluckman and Hanson [2005] emphasize that adaptive
responses to nutritional restrictions may occur throughout the birth weight distribution
(p.99). On the other hand, increases in low birth weight may be more closely tied
to other measures of newborn health than reductions at higher birth weights [Almond
et al., 2005]. In any event, since birth weight may be a poor proxy for the underlying
effects of nutritional shocks on fetal development (e.g. Franko et al. [2009]), we interpret
our findings on birth outcomes conservatively, using them primarily as confirmation that
prenatal fasting is indeed having a “first stage” effect on health measured at birth.
Finally, if Ramadan observance during pregnancy varied by socioeconomic or health
status, treatments effects would presumably also show a corresponding gradient, other
things equal. Interestingly, we observe no systematic gradient in the size of the birth
weight effects by maternal education, Medicaid use, or month prenatal care was initiated
(results available from authors). If treatment effects are relatively homogeneous, this
figures.27In column (3) of Table 2 we obtain two estimates of about -4 grams that are only significant at the
10 percent level, which may be chance occurrences among the 81 reported point estimates.
17
suggests that fasting observance is high or fairly uniform across socioeconomic groups by
month of gestation.
4.4 Fetal Death and the Sex Ratio at Birth
Mathews et al. [2008] found that poor maternal nutrition (possibly due to breakfast
skipping), around the time of conception skews the sex ratio in favor of girls, most likely
through the selective attrition of male conceptuses. Similarly, Almond et al. [2009] found
that severe morning sickness in early pregnancy is associated with female births, but also
a 50% fetal death rate due to severe nausea and vomiting.28 More generally, maternal
nutrition among mammals close to conception is positively associated with the likelihood
of male offspring Cameron [2004].
We consider Ramadan’s effect on sex at birth and the number of lives births in Table
3. Using our full sample of Arab mothers (column 1) we find a large effect of -3.7 percent-
age points (p-value = 0.06) on the likelihood of a male birth from exposure to Ramadan
during the longest diurnal fast in month 1 of pregnancy. In column (2) when we restrict
the zipcodes to those with fewer Chaldeans relative to Arabs, this point estimate rises
substantially to -6.6 percentage points and is significant at the 1 percent level. Inter-
estingly, we find some suggestive evidence of an effect in the month prior to conception
possibly reflecting the persistent effect of fasting just prior to conception. Columns (3)
and (4) show no analogous effects for our non-Arab samples.
To shed light on the cause of the sex ratio change, we aggregate counts of total births,
male births, and female births based on the month of conception. This results in 216
observations for conceptions between April 1988 and March 2006. The mean fraction of
births (weighted) that are male is 51.8 percent for Arabs over this period and the mean
sex ratio (male to female births) is 1.086. For non-Arabs, the respective means are 51.3
and 1.054. We regressed the log of the number of births on the exphrspct measures of
Ramadan exposure including dummies for month and year of conception and our full set
of controls.
Results for the more restricted sample of Arabs are shown in columns (5) through (7).
28By fetal death, we mean any attrition between conception and live birth. This could include attritionduring embryonic development before a fetus is fully formed.
18
Peak exposure to the Ramadan fast in the month after conception is associated with a 16
percent decline in total births. If male vulnerability [Kraemer, 2000] is the culprit, this
drop should be concentrated among male births. When we examine this by sex, we indeed
find this is driven by a 26 percent drop in male births (p-value = 0.005), while female
births fall by a statistically insignificant 4 percent.29 This decline in births associated with
fasting around the time of conception is probably not due to other behavioral changes
associated with Ramadan since it is difficult to imagine an alternative mechanism which
impacts sex-specific fertility.
Among those conceived shortly after Ramadan, (i.e., exposure in month zero, the
month prior to pregnancy) there is a statistically insignificant increase of 6.3 percent in
total live births associated with full exposure with some suggestive evidence of a female
skew.30 The fact that total births rise somewhat after Ramadan is not so surprising since
the end of Ramadan (Eid ul-Fitr) is a major event for Muslims and is celebrated with
a three day period of festivities.31 Further, the end of Ramadan marks the end of a
restriction on sex during daytime hours and the end of a period of piety. Nevertheless, the
increase in fertility is small, statistically insignificant and perhaps skewed toward female
births. We address potential selection issues that might arise from fertility changes in
section 4.6.
4.5 Other Birth Outcomes
We briefly summarize results for nine other birth outcomes: low birth weight, infant death,
APGAR scores, maternal weight gain, NICU unit, C-section, abnormal conditions, and
congenital anomalies. We used three different specifications and two different samples
but found that many of the results were sensitive to these choices.32 Appendix Table
A5 shows results with our more restricted sample of zipcodes and the broadest sample
29Several other gestation months show larger drops for female births associated with Ramadan exposure.30The increase in male births (one third of one percent) lags female births (9 percent). When we use
our full sample of Arab births (not shown) the increase in total births is 4 percent with male births risingby 0.5 percent and female births rising by 6.5 percent.
31In Hong Kong natality microdata, the lunar new year celebration is associated with a comparableincrease in births approximately nine months later (results available from authors).
32We varied gestation length (25-42 weeks, 37-42 weeks, and 39-42 weeks) and whether we used thefull sample of Arabs or the more restricted sample of zipcodes.
19
in terms of gestation (25-42 weeks) where only the first 5 gestation month coefficients
are readily interpretable (due to to compositional effects). The most consistent finding
concerned lower maternal weight gain due to exposure in the 7th month of gestation that is
apparent in all of our samples, though not always statistically significant. While maternal
weight gain might appear to be a desirable “first stage” measure, it has at least one
(unobserved) self-reported component (pre-pregnancy weight) and thereby suffers from
substantially more measurement error than newborn’s birth weight [Schieve et al., 1999].
4.6 Selective Timing of Conceptions Around Ramadan
Our identifying assumption is that the composition of Muslim parents does not change
systematically by their children’s in utero exposure to Ramadan. A general concern could
be that mothers of higher socioeconomic status (SES) seek to avoid having pregnancies
overlap with Ramadan by concentrating conceptions during the two to three months just
after Ramadan.33 Another concern could be if less healthy or less educated women are
more likely to conceive in the month prior to Ramadan which might account for our con-
sistent findings on first month exposure. Finally, although we did not detect a statistically
significant increase in conceptions following Ramadan, one might be concerned that there
is selection associated with which parents conceive just after Ramadan due to general
behavioral changes in society during this festive period.
We assess whether Ramadan exposure during pregnancy and the month prior to con-
ception is associated with a set of pre-determined characteristics of the pregnancy that
may be correlated with birth outcomes.34 Table 4 estimates equation (1) with twelve
“outcome” variables: mothers’ education, whether the pregnancy was paid for by Med-
icaid (income proxy), mother’s age, father’s age, father’s education, tobacco use during
pregnancy, alcohol use during pregnancy, parity, whether a previous child was born dead,
an indicator for missing father’s education, whether the mother had previously delivered
a small baby and whether diabetes was considered a risk factor for the mother. Out of the
33This might not alter our conclusions concerning differences due to exposure within the gestationperiod.
34Because we only observe those conceptions which result in a live birth, effects of post-conception Ra-madan exposure may be manifested in pre-determined characteristics if Ramadan-induced fetal mortalityhas a gradient in these same characteristics.
20
120 estimates, only 1 coefficient was significant at the 5 percent level. We found exposure
during the last month of pregnancy was associated with lower alcohol use. We found only
4 coefficients that were significant at the 10 percent level and three of them suggested Ra-
madan exposure was positively selected. For example mothers who had high exposure in
the fourth month of gestation had higher education than mothers whose pregnancies did
not overlap with Ramadan. Most importantly we found no evidence indicating positive
selection in mothers who conceive in the month after Ramadan and no evidence suggesting
that mothers who conceive in the month before Ramadan are negatively selected. In an
additional check, we have run all of our birthweight and gestation length results dropping
mothers who conceived in the month after Ramadan so that our effects are estimated
only relative to mother’s who conceived two to three months after Ramadan but whose
pregnancies did not overlap with Ramadan, and found very similar results.35
5 Census Results
5.1 Results from Uganda Census
Our presentation of potential long-term effects begins with Uganda, where self-reported
religion, birth month, and various health outcomes are available for a sizable number of
adult Muslims and non-Muslims. As in data from other countries (e.g., the US Census),
disability is the primary measure of health in the Uganda Census.
5.1.1 Disability Outcomes
Table 5 shows disability outcomes for Muslims and non-Muslims. Because these outcomes
have a low incidence rate we have multiplied the coefficients and standard errors by 100
to make them easier to read. The effects are therefore measured in percentage points. In
the first column we show the effects of Ramadan exposure over each of the nine months
preceding birth. In column (1) we find a statistically significant increase in the likelihood
35If anything, point estimates tend to increase in absolute value. For example the Table 1 column(6) estimate for the first month of gestation rises to -53.3 from -37.9 with a p-value of 0.02. The TableA4 column (6) estimate of the 2nd month effect on weeks of gestation is -0.16 rather than -0.11 with ap-value of 0.02.
21
of a disability (of any kind) for Muslims born nine months after Ramadan (point estimate
of 0.819 and p-value of 0.02). Relative to the mean disability rate of 3.8 percent, the effect
is substantial at 22 percent. We find that no other month prior to birth is statistically
significant and the p-value on the joint test of all nine coefficients does not approach
statistical significance. We cannot reject that all of the coefficients are equal.
Turning to specific disabilities (columns (2) to (5)), the most striking finding is the
increased incidence of a mental or learning disability (column (4)) when Ramadan occurs
during the first month pregnancy. The point estimate is 0.250 with a p-value of 0.001.
Given the mean rate of 0.14 percent this implies that the occurrence of Ramadan early
in pregnancy nearly doubles the likelihood of a disability related to diminished cognitive
function. Thus, the increase in mental/learning disabilities from month-one Ramadan
exposure would account for about 15% of all mental/learning disabilities among Muslims.
Furthermore, those with exposure in month 8 have a 100% increase (significant at the
5% level) and those with Ramadan exposure in months 5 or 6 show smaller increases
(significant at the 10% level). The joint test on all gestation months of no effect is
rejected at the 4 percent significance level.
We also find that the incidence of sight/blindness and hearing/deafness are higher for
those born 9 months after Ramadan. Specifically, the magnitude of the effects relative to
those not in utero are 33 percent for blindness (p-value = 0.07) and 64 percent for deafness
(p-value = 0.04). For hearing/deafness we also find a marginally significant effect for those
exposed to Ramadan in the fifth month of gestation.
We run the same specifications on our sample of non-Muslims in columns (6) - (10).
We find no cases of a corresponding significant result for Muslims also occurring for
Non-Muslims for these outcomes. We tested the sensitivity of the results for Muslims to
also including exposure during the 10th month prior to birth and found that the results
were unaffected and that in no case was the coefficient on the 10th month statistically
significant (see Appendix Table A6). We also ran our specifications separately for men
and women (not shown) and found that the results were qualitatively similar though the
estimates were much less precise.
22
5.1.2 Causes of Disability
Previous falsification tests have considered Ramadan exposure outside of pregnancy and
Ramadan exposure during pregnancy for non-Muslims. Information on the causes of dis-
abilities provides a third falsification test. We group these reported causes – accident,
occupational injury, war injury, aging, disease, or congenital – by whether they can rea-
sonably be linked to fasting via the mechanisms discussed earlier. Clearly, disabilities that
arise from accidents, occupational injuries, or war injuries are postnatal and should not
be related to maternal fasting during Ramadan. On the other hand, the fetal origins hy-
pothesis suggests that extended periods of nutritional restriction may be associated with
a reprogramming of the body’s systems that result in poor health outcomes later in life
(see Appendix for additional discussion). This would be consistent with those who report
“aging” as the source of a disability. Since it is conceivable that fasting might contribute
to a weakened immune system, respondents who report disabilities due to “disease” could
plausibly be related to the timing of Ramadan. Finally, whether maternal nutrition affects
congenital disabilities (those present at birth) is not clear-cut.36
We find no significant effects from accidents, occupational injury or war injuries for
Muslims or non-Muslims in any gestation month (Appendix Table A7). In contrast,
Muslims born nine months after Ramadan have an increased incidence of disabilities
due to aging of 0.37 percentage points (p-value = 0.006). We find no evidence linking
Ramadan exposure to disease-related or congenital disabilities (consistent with Michigan
results for congenital anomalies). We found no comparable effect of first month exposure
to Ramadan on disabilities caused by aging for non-Muslims.37
In order to address possible concerns about selective timing of pregnancy in Uganda,
we used a sample of children aged 17 or under and living with their parents and regressed
parent characteristics (education, illiteracy, and disability) on the child’s Ramadan expo-
sure using equation (1). As with Michigan, we found no statistically significant effects of
negative selection on parent characteristics. Finally, we also found that the results were
insensitive to excluding outlier cohorts that had extremely large or small disability rates.
36If the disability is epigenetic then it may be associated with maternal fasting.37Among non-Muslims the only significant effect is that those exposed to Ramadan one month before
birth are 0.12 percentage points (p-value = 0.017) more likely to have a congenital disability. This is a20 percent effect relative to the mean.
23
If anything, excluding outliers slightly increased the point estimates and their precision.
5.1.3 Sex Composition of Adult Population
With the Uganda data we explore the possibility that maternal fasting may influence the
sex composition of the adult population. This could arise either from alterations to the
sex composition at birth or because of selective mortality by sex after birth as implied by
some of the fetal origins literature (see Appendix Section 1). To assess this, we conduct
an analysis parallel to our Michigan analysis. First we simply regress male as an outcome
in equation (1). Second, we aggregate the population by cells constructed by birth month
both for the pooled sample as well as separately by sex and take the log of the population
counts as an outcome.
Results are shown in the left most panel of Table 6. In column (1) we find that every
implied gestational month has a negative coefficient and that the 1st, 4th and 7th months
of gestation are statistically significant at the 5 percent level The joint test of all the
exposure months is significant at the 10 percent level. In column (2) we find only slight
evidence cohort size is related to Ramadan exposure when we pool men and women.
When we look at the log of population counts of males in column (3), seven of the nine
months have negative coefficients and the 7th month of gestation has a particularly large
and statistically significant effect (15%). The effects on the sex in column (1) appear to
be driven by reductions in the number of males. In column (4) we show the analogous
results for women where the effects are all positive but only significant in one month.
In other results (not shown) we find no comparable effects on the sex composition for
non-Muslims.
5.1.4 Other Outcomes in Uganda
The remaining columns of Table 6 show results for non-health outcomes. Unfortunately
preferred economic outcomes, such as wages, income, and wealth, are not available. In
column (5) we examine whether home ownership, a proxy for wealth, is affected. We
restrict the sample to men since they are the vast majority of property owners in Uganda.38
38Uganda is a patriarchal society where land is passed down through sons. Although women arenot prevented from owning land, by one estimate, 93 percent of Ugandan land is owned by men.
24
We find that men exposed to Ramadan in the first month of gestation are 2.6 percentage
points less likely to own their home (p-value=0.027) and that men exposed in the 2nd
month of gestation are 2.1 percentage points less likely to own their home (p-value=0.051).
Given the high rate of male home ownership (73.4 percent), these effects are not especially
large. We can reject that there is no effect of Ramadan exposure over all gestation months
on home ownership at the 5 percent level. In contrast, we find no statistically significant
effects of Ramadan exposure on home ownership for non-Muslims.
In columns (6) through (9) we examine illiteracy, completed years of schooling, a
dummy for no schooling, and employment status at the time of the Census. We find
no statistically significant effects that associate greater Ramadan exposure with higher
illiteracy or lower schooling. In fact those born 8 months after Ramadan appear to have
higher human capital levels by both of these measures. The magnitude of these effects,
however, is very small. For example, the increase in years of schooling for these individuals
is only about a tenth of a year, or 1.6 percent of the sample mean.
In developing countries a reduction in health capital could be manifested in less pro-
ductive childhood labor and possibly lead to increased schooling. We also speculate that
these small but positive results might reflect a selective effect on surviving males, who
seem to bear the brunt of Ramadan-related attrition (either prenatally or postnatally). In
developing countries where average mortality rates are high, the selective effect of health
disruptions operating through early-life mortality may overwhelm “fetal origins” effects
on adult survivors [Deaton et al., 2009]. Scotland [1956] provides supportive evidence
that death rates among the frail were very high in Uganda during roughly the middle
of our sample period in the 1950s. When we split the sample by gender, we only found
these positive education effects for men and found negative (though insignificant) effects
on women. When we split the sample by those above age 50 versus those aged 50 or
younger, the effects are much larger for the older groups. These facts are consistent with
the possibility of sex-specific selective mortality.
(http://www.womensenews.org/article.cfm/dyn/aid/1456/context/archive).
25
5.2 Results from Iraq Census
We replicate the basic Uganda results using 1997 Iraq Census data. Columns (1) to (4)
of Table 7 show the effects on disability. Full exposure to Ramadan nine months before
birth is associated with a 0.33 percentage point increase in the probability of having a
disability (p-value = 0.016). While in Uganda the overall disability rate was 3.8 percent,
in Iraq it is just 1.5 percent. However, the effect size relative to the mean in Iraq is 23
percent, nearly identical to the 22 percent effect size that we estimated in Uganda. In Iraq
the rates of disabilities involving sight and hearing, however, are a much smaller fraction
of the reported rates for Uganda and this may explain why we detect no effect on these
measures for first month exposure in columns (2) and (3).39 We do find that exposure in
month 5 of pregnancy has an effect on vision related disabilities.
“Insane” is the sole mental disability queried, which IPUMS relabeled as “psycholog-
ical” disability. Interestingly, at 0.36 percent, Iraq’s psychological disability rate is actu-
ally higher than the combined rate of 0.28 percent for mental/learning plus psychological
disabilities in Uganda (despite Iraq’s lower overall disability rate). This suggests that
mental/learning disabilities that are related to cognitive impairments may be subsumed
in the psychological disability measure for Iraq. In column (4) we find strong effects on
psychological disabilities just as we did for mental/learning disabilities in Uganda. First
month exposure to Ramadan is associated with 0.23 percentage point increase in the like-
lihood of a psychological disability or a 63 percent effect relative to the mean (p-value
= 0.001). We also estimate positive but insignificant effects in 6 of the other 8 gestation
months. As was the case in Uganda with mental/learning disabilities, the joint test of
zero effect across all gestation months is easily rejected at the 5 percent level, as is the
test of equality of coefficients. The fact that both overall disability as well as disabilities
that likely capture cognitive impairments appear to be impacted in precisely the same
period of fetal development in two different societies is remarkable and reinforces that our
findings are not due to chance.
In columns (5) through (8) of Table 7 we turn to socioeconomic outcomes.40 The
39For vision/blindness only 0.14 percent report this disability which is only about one-tenth of the sharereporting a comparable disability in Uganda. For deaf/hearing only 0.02 percent report this disabilitywhich is only one-sixteenth of the rate found in Uganda.
40We experimented with measures of human capital such as years of schooling and illiteracy but found
26
1997 Iraqi Census asks about instances of men having multiple wives which we use to
proxy for wealth (as described earlier). For this measure, shown in column (5) we find
that men with first month exposure are more than half a percentage point less likely to
have multiple wives and negative point estimates are found throughout pregnancy. A
large and significant effect is also found during month 6 of gestation. Similarly, for home
ownership (column 6), we see highly significant effects of exposure throughout the in utero
period and the joint test of all gestation month coefficients is significant at the 8 percent
level. In column (7) we see no effects on the sex composition of the adult population
which may not be so surprising given that Iraq’s sex ratio is already skewed toward
women. Finally, in column (8) we find both small positive and small negative effects of
Ramadan exposure on employment that are statistically significant. We note that among
males, home owners are less likely to be employed (73%) than non-home owners (82%)
suggesting that employment may be a poor proxy for economic status in Iraq and may
actually signal lower status.41 As with our Uganda results, we have also run all of these
estimates including exposure 10 months prior to birth and in no case did it meaningfully
alter the results.
5.3 Results from US Census
The US data provide potentially higher quality measures of disability as well as direct
measures of labor market outcomes (unavailable for Iraq and Uganda). As mentioned in
Section 3.2.3, the data’s chief drawback is absence of month of birth information, which
dulls assignment of the Ramadan ITT. On the other hand, findings of long-term effects
in the US may address concerns that the Uganda and Iraq results do not generalize to
Muslims living in a high-income Western society.
Panel A of Table 8 presents results for four outcomes across three samples. In each
regression we estimated effects of Ramadan exposure in one’s birth quarter and in the
that there were extremely strong month of birth trends in these variables that could not be adequatelycontrolled for without having a full set of birth cohorts for whom Ramadan occurred throughout theentire calendar year. The seasonality in birth month are likely related to institutional issues concerningeducation (e.g. cutoff ages for starting or ending school tied to specific dates).
41If we control for home ownership and multiple wives the instances of positive effects of Ramadanexposure on male employment are eliminated.
27
prior two birth quarters, omitting Ramadan exposure three quarters prior to the birth
quarter and thereby treating that cohort as the control group. Since we have averaged our
monthly exposure measures within each birth quarter, our quarterly exposure measure
never exceeds one third (0.33) in any quarter. Therefore, our coefficients which represent
the effect of a unit change in exposure should be scaled down by one-third to be inter-
pretable as the effect of fasting for 30 days within the birth quarter. For this table we
have also multiplied all the dichotomous outcomes by 100.
The first four columns pool samples drawn from the 1980 Census and the 2005-2007
ACS. We find a significant effect of exposure in the quarter prior to birth on the incidence
of disability (column (1)). The coefficient of 3.50 suggests that Ramadan’s occurrence in
a particular month within that quarter would raise the likelihood of a disability by about
1.17 percentage points. Since the mean rate of disability in the sample is 6.07 percent, this
implies about a 19 percent effect at the mean, again quite similar to the corresponding
magnitudes in Uganda and Iran. The p-value on the joint test of the three quarters is
0.01. However, the timing of exposure appears to be concentrated more in the second
trimester rather than early in gestation.42 Of course it may be that effects are large in
the first month of gestation (as in Uganda and Iraq) in addition to the second trimester
but we are obviously unable to check this.
In column (4), we find that exposure both in the birth quarter and two quarters prior
to birth is associated with a reduction in log annual earnings of about 5.5 to 6 percent
(re-scaled). Both estimates are significant at the 5 percent level and the effects are jointly
significant at the 0.11 level. To measure human capital we began by examining completed
years of schooling as an outcome (not shown) and found a statistically significant effect of
about 0.15 years from one month’s exposure that occurs two quarters prior to birth. Since
this was a relatively small sized effect, we then looked for whether this was concentrated
at the low end of the education distribution by looking at failure to complete 12 years
of schooling as an outcome (“less than HS”). Column (2) shows a coefficient of 2.513 for
Ramadans falling two quarters prior to the birth quarter, significant at the 11 percent
42Depending on when in the quarter an individual is born, the prior quarter could reflect effectsanywhere from the 4th gestation month to the 9th. If births were uniformly distributed within a quarterthen the mean exposure month would be the fifth month of gestation.
28
level. The point estimate implies that one month of exposure to Ramadan fasting is
associated with about a 0.84 percentage point increase in the high school dropout rate
which implies a 6.4 percent effect size evaluated at the mean.
We find negative point estimates for the likelihood of being male (column (3)) that
are not statistically significant, but nevertheless potentially meaningful quantitatively.
Complete exposure in the quarter two quarters prior to the birth quarter is associated with
a roughly 1 percentage point decline in the male share of the adult Muslim population.
The General Accounting Office noted the “impact of measurement error appears to be
greater for the ACS” than for the long-form of the decennial US Census [GAO, 2002]. In
columns (5) through (8) we restrict the sample to those observed in the 1980 Census,43
about a third of the full sample, and observe broadly similar effects. With this sample
we also observe that the other two quarters of Ramadan appear to have strong effects
on adult disability. So it could be that in 1980, at least, there were in fact long-term
repercussions among those whose mothers fasted early in pregnancy. In columns (9)
through (12) we restrict the sample to the pooled ACS sample from more recent years.
We again see disability effects of a similar magnitude and timing. For both subsamples
the effects on earnings are insignificant but if anything appear to be stronger earlier in
pregnancy (two quarters prior to the birth quarter).
Panel B takes a more conservative approach in designating the control group. Although
we know that the vast majority of pregnancies that overlap with Ramadan’s occurrence
in the two quarters prior to birth will actually be exposed to Ramadan for the entirety
of the three months of the quarter, this is much less likely for the quarter of birth itself
and the quarter three quarters prior to the birth quarter. Therefore, here both of these
quarters are omitted and serve as the reference group. As can be seen in columns (1)
through (4) of Panel B, this does not alter our basic results. The effect size on disability
is a bit smaller but still highly significant. The effect on having fewer than 12 years of
schooling actually rises, becomes significant at the 5 percent level, and the joint test of
both exposure coefficients is now significant at the 8 percent level. On the other hand the
effect on earnings drops considerably and is no longer statistically significant.
We have also run all of these specifications on a sample of US born whites that are
43The last decennial Census to report quarter of birth.
29
presumably non-Muslims based on reported ancestry and found no effects of similar mag-
nitudes.
To summarize, in the US Census we find: 1) strong evidence of elevated rates of disabil-
ity from in utero exposure to Ramadan generally toward the middle of pregnancy; 2) evi-
dence of lower earnings with Ramadan exposure early in pregnancy (e.g., first trimester);
and 3) suggestive evidence linking Ramadan exposure early in pregnancy to a lower like-
lihood of completing high school.
6 Discussion and Future Research
6.1 How does fasting observance affect our estimates?
As rates of fasting by pregnant women during Ramadan approach unity, our ITT estimate
approaches the treatment effect of fasting (which cannot be said of previous comparisons
between fasters and non-fasters). Fasting observance may be highest in early pregnancy,
both because mothers may be unaware they are pregnant and the burden of pregnancy
is lower.44 Thus, the estimated health damage attributable to Ramadan falling in the
first month of pregnancy may approximate the treatment effect of fasting during this
period. Correspondence between our ITT estimate and fasting’s effect is likely higher
in Iraq and Uganda where we have little classification error in Muslim status. In our
Michigan data, our proxy for Muslims will include a higher fraction of non-Muslims due
to the likely presence of Chaldeans who report Arab ancestry. This is also likely to be
the case, albeit to a lesser extent, with our US Census data where we may include some
non-Muslim immigrants from predominantly Muslim countries. As compliance (fasting
during Ramadan) is presumably zero for non-Muslims, our US ITT estimates are likely
attenuated.
Ideally, we would observe fasting behavior by month of pregnancy and subsequent
health or human capital outcomes for a large sample of Muslims. With this information
44The only study that we are aware of that documented differences in fasting behavior across pregnancywas by Arab and Nasrollahi [2001] who found that of the 4,343 women delivering in hospitals in Hamadan,Iran in 1999, fasting was only slightly more common when Ramadan fell in the first trimester (77% )than in the second trimester (72%) or third trimester (65%).
30
and a sufficiently long span of birth years, we could construct Wald estimates of the
effect of fasting on health during each pregnancy month. Ramadan’s coincidence with
pregnancy month would be the binary instrumental variable for fasting observance. As
long as Muslims are not fasting for other reasons during the month of Ramadan (as seems
reasonable), this Wald estimate could be interpreted as the effect of fasting on fasters
(i.e., the treatment on the treated rather than simply a LATE estimate, see Angrist and
Pischke [2009]). Failing this, data on fasting behavior and pregnancy month could be used
to estimate the first stage effects of Ramadan timing (preferably for the US, Uganda, or
Iraq), and combined with our ITT estimates in a two-sample IV procedure. This approach
would also integrate potential heterogeneity in fasting rates by pregnancy month.
The most compelling previous studies of the developmental origins of health and dis-
ease have relied on exogenous shocks “caused by conditions outside the control of the
mother” [Currie, 2009]. These shocks have also typically involved relatively uncommon
and severe historical events and so the relevance to policy may be somewhat tenuous. Our
study departs from these in considering a treatment that to a greater degree is within the
control of the mother (but still identified by exogenous timing) and may potentially be
amenable to interventions. We also study a phenomenon that conforms more closely to
the established theories relating a decline in circulating levels of maternal glucose during
critical windows of embryonic and fetal development. That obtaining a dispensation to
postpone fasting until after pregnancy is apparently the exception rather than the norm
(see Appendix A.1.2) suggests two possibilities. First, the cost of requesting the dispen-
sation may be high – in part because mothers usually become aware of their pregnancies
after the first month [Floyd et al., 1999]. Alternatively, it may be that the full health
consequences of Ramadan fasting during pregnancy are unknown. This explanation also
seems plausible as ours is the first study to find long-term effects.
An alternative approach families could adopt is to time pregnancies to commence
shortly after Ramadan, and thereby avoid the overlap. That we do not observe this
behavior could suggest that timing pregnancies is costly or unreliable,45 or again that
fasting during pregnancy is not considered teratogenic.
45Dickert-Conlin and Chandra [1999] found a responsiveness to tax incentives in the timing of deliveries,not conceptions.
31
6.2 Synthesizing the Results
In table A1 we present hypotheses concerning which outcomes are likely to be affected by
fasting, and in which months of pregnancy. In accordance with our hypotheses, we find
evidence that fasting affects birth weight, gestation length and the sex composition at
birth using natality data from Michigan. For birth weight it appears that fasting during
the first month or two is consistently associated with lower birthweight. However, when
we limit our sample full-term births in non-Chaldean zipcodes, we find negative effects in
other stages of pregnancy. Our results on the sex composition of births are also consistent
with the hypothesis that nutrition shortly after conception matters.
We take these findings primarily as confirmation that there is a detectable effect of
fasting that is evident at birth. The absence of such evidence would make the case for
long-term effects superficially more suspect but still plausible from the point of view of
biological theory. Although some may interpret evidence of negative effects on birth
weight as an important finding in and of itself, we take the more conservative view that
it merely demonstrates the potential importance of nutritional disruptions during fetal
development on long-term outcomes.
Our literature review further suggests that irrespective of when in pregnancy fasting
may affect birth outcomes, adult outcomes are generally likely to be affected by prenatal
nutritional disruptions early in pregnancy.46 Accordingly, we find large effects on disability
from early exposure in Uganda and Iraq. In the US, where we have much more blunt data
on birth timing, we find that rates of disability are elevated by a very similar magnitude as
in Iraq and Uganda but that the timing of effects is now concentrated during the second
trimester, though we cannot rule out the possibility of large effects early in pregnancy
and find evidence of this when we use only the 1980 US Census (the last decennial Census
to report birth quarter).
With respect to education, although we find no evidence of a negative effect in Uganda
we do estimate a significantly lower likelihood of completing high school that is associated
with early exposure in the US. We note that theory is not clear on whether reductions
in health capital in the context of a developing country should reduce schooling since it
46Evidence from the 1918 and 1957 influenza pandemics suggests that the first half of pregnancy isparticularly important to subsequent health and human capital [Almond, 2006, Kelly, 2009].
32
may also reduce productivity among child laborers. For Uganda, we also find evidence
that is consistent with the possibility that sex-specific selective mortality may have led
to a positive association. It would be useful for future research to use administrative
educational data (e.g. test scores) to more directly ascertain whether there are effects on
human capital during adolescence.
Finally, with respect to economic outcomes, we find that fasting early in pregnancy
is associated with lower wealth using home ownership in Uganda and home ownership
and polygyny in Iraq. In the US we similarly find that early exposure is associated with
reduced earnings, although effects are also apparent in other periods of pregnancy.
6.3 Generalizability and Future Research
An important caveat of our analysis is that we only measure the reduced form effect of
exposure to all aspects of Ramadan’s occurrence, not just fasting. The fact that Ramadan
may alter other behaviors (e.g. sleeping patterns) may lead one to question whether the
effects of fasting during Ramadan generalizes to other contexts such as dieting during
pregnancy. We would first emphasize that there is a strong physiologic and empirical basis
in the medical literature for expecting that maternal fasting can lead to metabolic changes
in the intra-uterine environment (i.e. reductions in glucose and increases in ketones) that
could potentially result in adverse birth outcomes. Further, no other behavioral aspect of
Ramadan observance that we are aware of has been linked to adverse pregnancy or birth
outcomes. Therefore, the fact that accelerated starvation has in fact been documented
in both developed and developing countries during Ramadan provides a priori evidence
that Ramadan is of direct relevance for understanding the implications of nutritional
deprivation during pregnancy more generally. The presence of elevated levels of cortisol
provides further evidence of a likely effect. At a minimum, the results of this paper are
a clarion call for further research. It would be fruitful for future studies to analyze the
extent to which other behavioral aspects of Ramadan may interact with fasting behavior
and whether these other factors may serve to amplify or dampen the effects of restricted
prenatal nutrition. Finally, setting aside the issue of generalizability, the fact that millions
of pregnant Muslim women will fast each year implies that understanding the long-term
33
impacts of Ramadan is an important question per se.
Future research should also confirm whether other commonly-experienced disruptions
to prenatal nutrition exert similar effects as Ramadan fasting. Most US pregnancies are
not recognized until after the first month of gestation [Floyd et al., 1999]. Given the results
of this study, maternal behavior particularly during the first month of pregnancy, can have
permanent impacts on offspring health. Roughly 40% of US women of childbearing age
are attempting to lose weight [Cohen and Kim, 2009] and 24% of women reported meal-
skipping during pregnancy [Siega-Riz et al., 2001].47 Even in relatively well-nourished
populations, prenatal nutrition (and at a minimum its timing) may be sub-optimal for
fetal development. Future research should employ new identification strategies to evaluate
both short and long-term health effects of nutrition in early pregnancy on health and other
end points, e.g., test scores.
47Furthermore, approximately 5% of pregnant women manifest eating disorders [Turton et al., 1999].
34
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38
Tab
le1:
Effec
tsof
Ram
adan
Expos
ure
onB
irth
Wei
ght
by
Ges
tati
onM
onth
Mic
hig
anA
rabs
Tab
le 1
: E
ffec
ts o
f R
amad
an E
xpos
ure
on B
irth
Wei
ght
by G
esta
tion
Mon
th, M
ichig
an A
rabs
Dd
Vi
bl
iB
ih
ih
Cffi
iR
dE
(%fd
lih
h%
fd
)D
epen
den
t V
ari
able
is
Bir
thw
eigh
t, C
oeffic
ients
are
on R
amad
an E
xpos
ure
mea
sure
s (%
of day
light
hou
rs, %
of day
s)
Dep
enden
t V
aria
ble
is
Bir
thw
eigh
t, C
oeffic
ients
are
on R
amad
an E
xpos
ure
mea
sure
s (%
of day
ligh
t hou
rs, %
of day
s)
Ram
adan
Exp
osure
Usi
ng
Ges
tati
onD
ata
(37
42w
ks)
Ram
adan
Exp
osure
Ass
um
ing
Nor
mal
Ges
tati
onR
amad
an E
xpos
ure
Usi
ng
Ges
tati
on D
ata
(37-
42 w
ks)
Ram
adan
Exp
osure
Ass
um
ing
Nor
mal
Ges
tati
on
Mon
ths
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Ges
tati
on(6
)(7
)(8
)(9
)
pg
()
pg
Mon
ths
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Ges
tati
on(6
)(7
)(8
)(9
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)pri
orto
Bir
thD
ayB
irth
Day
Bir
thD
ayB
irth
Day
Bir
thM
oM
onth
Bir
thD
ayB
irth
Day
Bir
thD
ayB
irth
Day
pri
or t
oB
irth
Day
Bir
th D
ay
Bir
th D
ay
Bir
th D
ay
Bir
th M
o.
Mon
thB
irth
Day
Bir
th D
ay
Bir
th D
ay
Bir
th D
ay
Bir
thH
ours
Hou
rsD
ays
Day
sD
ays
expos
ure
Hou
rsH
ours
Day
sD
ays
Bir
thH
ours
Hou
rsD
ays
Day
sD
ays
expos
ure
Hou
rsH
ours
Day
sD
ays
10--
6.4
--4.
3--
0--
6.0
--5.
510
--6.
4--
4.3
--0
--6.
0--
5.5
(19
7)(1
38)
(18
1)(1
24)
(19.
7)(1
3.8)
(18.
1)(1
2.4)
(19.7
)(1
3.8
)(1
8.1
)(1
2.4)
939
8**
389
**26
7**
259
**10
81
379
**36
9**
223
*21
3*
9-3
9.8
**-3
8.9
**-2
6.7
**-2
5.9
**-1
0.8
1-3
7.9
**-3
6.9
**-2
2.3
*-2
1.3
*(1
85)
(18
7)(1
27)
(13
0)(1
27)
(16
9)(1
71)
(11
5)(1
17)
(18.5
)(1
8.7
)(1
2.7)
(13.0
)(1
2.7
)(1
6.9
)(1
7.1
)(1
1.5
)(1
1.7)
838
0**
357
*24
5**
228
*33
2**
*2
272
*25
016
914
78
-38.
0**
-35.
7*
-24.
5**
-22.
8*
-33.
2**
*2
-27.2
*-2
5.0
-16.
9-1
4.7
838
.035
.724
.522
.833
.22
27.2
25.0
16.9
14.7
(17
7)(1
91)
(12
4)(1
36)
(12
4)(1
61)
(17
5)(1
11)
(12
2)(1
7.7
)(1
9.1
)(1
2.4)
(13.6
)(1
2.4
)(1
6.1
)(1
7.5
)(1
1.1
)(1
2.2)
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
77
74
77
77.
69.
67.
59.
0-8
.83
-4.7
-2.8
-1.7
0.1
77.6
9.6
7.5
9.0
-8.8
3-4
.7-2
.8-1
.70.
1(1
83)
(19
2)(1
28)
(13
6)(1
28)
(16
6)(1
76)
(11
5)(1
23)
(18.
3)
(19.
2)(1
2.8)
(13.
6)
(12.
8)
(16.
6)(1
7.6)
(11.
5)
(12.
3)(1
8.3
)(1
9.2
)(1
2.8)
(13.6
)(1
2.8
)(1
6.6
)(1
7.6
)(1
1.5
)(1
2.3)
6-3
76
**-3
56
*-2
54
**-2
39
*-1
08
4-1
34
-11
5-8
9-6
96
-37.
6**
-35.
6*
-25.
4**
-23.
9*
-10.
84
-13.4
-11.5
-8.9
-6.9
(18
5)(1
95)
(13
0)(1
39)
(12
8)(1
66)
(17
7)(1
16)
(12
5)(1
8.5
)(1
9.5
)(1
3.0)
(13.9
)(1
2.8
)(1
6.6
)(1
7.7
)(1
1.6
)(1
2.5)
51
13
02
54
018
55
160
141
98
79
51.1
3.0
2.5
4.0
-18.
55
-16.0
-14.1
-9.8
-7.9
(18
8)(1
97)
(13
2)(1
40)
(13
2)(1
69)
(17
8)(1
19)
(12
6)(1
8.8
)(1
9.7
)(1
3.2)
(14.0
)(1
3.2
)(1
6.9
)(1
7.8
)(1
1.9
)(1
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433
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()
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110
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join
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N44
112
4411
232
101
4411
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112
4110
641
106
4110
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Not
es:
Col
um
ns
1-4
use
exac
t bir
th d
ate
but
do
not
uti
lize
ges
tati
on d
ata
. C
olu
mn 5
only
use
s bir
th m
onth
.
Colu
mns
6-10 u
se e
ither
sel
f re
port
ed o
r N
otes
:C
olu
mns
1-4
use
exact
bir
th d
ate
but
do n
ot
uti
lize
ges
tati
on d
ata
. C
olu
mn 5
only
use
s bir
th m
onth
.
Colu
mns
6-1
0 u
se e
ither
sel
f re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d g
esta
tion (
see
text)
. E
ntr
ies
show
the
coef
fice
nt
on t
he
rele
vant
Ram
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
re. C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
moth
er’s
age,
moth
er’
dh
’d
bl
hl
fh
’d
df
fh
’d
fh
’f
h’
Not
es:
Colu
mns
1-4
use
exact
bir
th d
ate
but
do n
ot
uti
lize
ges
tati
on d
ata
. C
olu
mn 5
only
use
s bir
th m
onth
.
Colu
mns
6-1
0 u
se e
ither
sel
f re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d g
esta
tion (
see
text)
. E
ntr
ies
show
the
coef
fice
nt
on t
he
rele
vant
Ram
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
re. C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
moth
er’s
age,
moth
er’
dh
’d
bl
hl
fh
’d
df
fh
’d
fh
’f
h’
Not
es:
Colu
mns
1-4
use
exact
bir
th d
ate
but
do n
ot
uti
lize
ges
tati
on d
ata
. C
olu
mn 5
only
use
s bir
th m
onth
.
Colu
mns
6-1
0 u
se e
ither
sel
f re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d g
esta
tion (
see
text)
. E
ntr
ies
show
the
coef
fice
nt
on t
he
rele
vant
Ram
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
re. C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
moth
er’s
age,
moth
er’
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
educa
tion, to
bacc
o u
se, alc
ohol use
, pari
ty, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion, dum
my for
mis
sing fath
er’s
educa
tion, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
squar
ednum
ber
ofpre
ious
pre
gnan
cies
that
resu
lted
indea
that
bir
thco
nce
pti
on(o
rbir
th)
mon
thdum
mie
sco
unt
dum
mie
sand
bir
thea
rdum
mie
s
Not
es:
Colu
mns
1-4
use
exact
bir
th d
ate
but
do n
ot
uti
lize
ges
tati
on d
ata
. C
olu
mn 5
only
use
s bir
th m
onth
.
Colu
mns
6-1
0 u
se e
ither
sel
f re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d g
esta
tion (
see
text)
. E
ntr
ies
show
the
coef
fice
nt
on t
he
rele
vant
Ram
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
re. C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
moth
er’s
age,
moth
er’
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
educa
tion, to
bacc
o u
se, alc
ohol use
, pari
ty, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion, dum
my for
mis
sing fath
er’s
educa
tion, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
squar
ednum
ber
ofpre
ious
pre
gnan
cies
that
resu
lted
indea
that
bir
thco
nce
pti
on(o
rbir
th)
mon
thdum
mie
sco
unt
dum
mie
sand
bir
thea
rdum
mie
s
Not
es:
Colu
mns
1-4
use
exact
bir
th d
ate
but
do n
ot
uti
lize
ges
tati
on d
ata
. C
olu
mn 5
only
use
s bir
th m
onth
.
Colu
mns
6-1
0 u
se e
ither
sel
f re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d g
esta
tion (
see
text)
. E
ntr
ies
show
the
coef
fice
nt
on t
he
rele
vant
Ram
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
re. C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
moth
er’s
age,
moth
er’
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
educa
tion, to
bacc
o u
se, alc
ohol use
, pari
ty, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion, dum
my for
mis
sing fath
er’s
educa
tion, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
squar
ed, num
ber
of pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
bir
th, co
nce
pti
on (
or b
irth
) m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
dbir
th y
ear
dum
mie
s.It
alici
zed
esti
mate
sm
ay
repre
sent
post
nata
lex
posu
refo
rso
me
sam
ple
mem
ber
s
Not
es:
Colu
mns
1-4
use
exact
bir
th d
ate
but
do n
ot
uti
lize
ges
tati
on d
ata
. C
olu
mn 5
only
use
s bir
th m
onth
.
Colu
mns
6-1
0 u
se e
ither
sel
f re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d g
esta
tion (
see
text)
. E
ntr
ies
show
the
coef
fice
nt
on t
he
rele
vant
Ram
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
re. C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
moth
er’s
age,
moth
er’
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
educa
tion, to
bacc
o u
se, alc
ohol use
, pari
ty, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion, dum
my for
mis
sing fath
er’s
educa
tion, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
squar
ed, num
ber
of pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
bir
th, co
nce
pti
on (
or b
irth
) m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
dbir
th y
ear
dum
mie
s.It
alici
zed
esti
mate
sm
ay
repre
sent
post
nata
lex
posu
refo
rso
me
sam
ple
mem
ber
s
Not
es:
Colu
mns
1-4
use
exact
bir
th d
ate
but
do n
ot
uti
lize
ges
tati
on d
ata
. C
olu
mn 5
only
use
s bir
th m
onth
.
Colu
mns
6-1
0 u
se e
ither
sel
f re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d g
esta
tion (
see
text)
. E
ntr
ies
show
the
coef
fice
nt
on t
he
rele
vant
Ram
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
re. C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
moth
er’s
age,
moth
er’
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
educa
tion, to
bacc
o u
se, alc
ohol use
, pari
ty, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion, dum
my for
mis
sing fath
er’s
educa
tion, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
squar
ed, num
ber
of pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
bir
th, co
nce
pti
on (
or b
irth
) m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
dbir
th y
ear
dum
mie
s.It
alici
zed e
stim
ate
s m
ay r
epre
sent
post
nata
l ex
posu
re for
som
e sa
mple
mem
ber
s.
Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
are
nth
eses
, *si
gnific
ant
at
10%
; ** s
ignific
ant
at
5%
; *** s
ignific
ant
at
1%
Not
es:
Colu
mns
1-4
use
exact
bir
th d
ate
but
do n
ot
uti
lize
ges
tati
on d
ata
. C
olu
mn 5
only
use
s bir
th m
onth
.
Colu
mns
6-1
0 u
se e
ither
sel
f re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d g
esta
tion (
see
text)
. E
ntr
ies
show
the
coef
fice
nt
on t
he
rele
vant
Ram
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
re. C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
moth
er’s
age,
moth
er’
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
educa
tion, to
bacc
o u
se, alc
ohol use
, pari
ty, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion, dum
my for
mis
sing fath
er’s
educa
tion, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
squar
ed, num
ber
of pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
bir
th, co
nce
pti
on (
or b
irth
) m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
dbir
th y
ear
dum
mie
s.It
alici
zed e
stim
ate
s m
ay r
epre
sent
post
nata
l ex
posu
re for
som
e sa
mple
mem
ber
s.
Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
are
nth
eses
, *si
gnific
ant
at
10%
; ** s
ignific
ant
at
5%
; *** s
ignific
ant
at
1%
Not
es:
Colu
mns
1-4
use
exact
bir
th d
ate
but
do n
ot
uti
lize
ges
tati
on d
ata
. C
olu
mn 5
only
use
s bir
th m
onth
.
Colu
mns
6-1
0 u
se e
ither
sel
f re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d g
esta
tion (
see
text)
. E
ntr
ies
show
the
coef
fice
nt
on t
he
rele
vant
Ram
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
re. C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
moth
er’s
age,
moth
er’
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
educa
tion, to
bacc
o u
se, alc
ohol use
, pari
ty, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion, dum
my for
mis
sing fath
er’s
educa
tion, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
squar
ed, num
ber
of pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
bir
th, co
nce
pti
on (
or b
irth
) m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
dbir
th y
ear
dum
mie
s.It
alici
zed e
stim
ate
s m
ay r
epre
sent
post
nata
l ex
posu
re for
som
e sa
mple
mem
ber
s.
Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
are
nth
eses
, *si
gnific
ant
at
10%
; ** s
ignific
ant
at
5%
; *** s
ignific
ant
at
1%
Not
es:
Colu
mns
1-4
use
exact
bir
th d
ate
but
do n
ot
uti
lize
ges
tati
on d
ata
. C
olu
mn 5
only
use
s bir
th m
onth
.
Colu
mns
6-1
0 u
se e
ither
sel
f re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d g
esta
tion (
see
text)
. E
ntr
ies
show
the
coef
fice
nt
on t
he
rele
vant
Ram
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
re. C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
moth
er’s
age,
moth
er’
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
educa
tion, to
bacc
o u
se, alc
ohol use
, pari
ty, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion, dum
my for
mis
sing fath
er’s
educa
tion, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
squar
ed, num
ber
of pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
bir
th, co
nce
pti
on (
or b
irth
) m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
dbir
th y
ear
dum
mie
s.It
alici
zed e
stim
ate
s m
ay r
epre
sent
post
nata
l ex
posu
re for
som
e sa
mple
mem
ber
s.
Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
are
nth
eses
, *si
gnific
ant
at
10%
; ** s
ignific
ant
at
5%
; *** s
ignific
ant
at
1%
Not
es:
Colu
mns
1-4
use
exact
bir
th d
ate
but
do n
ot
uti
lize
ges
tati
on d
ata
. C
olu
mn 5
only
use
s bir
th m
onth
.
Colu
mns
6-1
0 u
se e
ither
sel
f re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d g
esta
tion (
see
text)
. E
ntr
ies
show
the
coef
fice
nt
on t
he
rele
vant
Ram
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
re. C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
moth
er’s
age,
moth
er’
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
educa
tion, to
bacc
o u
se, alc
ohol use
, pari
ty, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion, dum
my for
mis
sing fath
er’s
educa
tion, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
squar
ed, num
ber
of pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
bir
th, co
nce
pti
on (
or b
irth
) m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
dbir
th y
ear
dum
mie
s.It
alici
zed e
stim
ate
s m
ay r
epre
sent
post
nata
l ex
posu
re for
som
e sa
mple
mem
ber
s.
Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
are
nth
eses
, *si
gnific
ant
at
10%
; ** s
ignific
ant
at
5%
; *** s
ignific
ant
at
1%
Tab
le2:
Effec
tsof
Ram
adan
Expos
ure
onB
irth
Wei
ght
by
Ges
tati
onM
onth
Mic
hig
anN
onA
rabs
Tab
le 2
: E
ffec
ts o
f R
amad
an E
xpos
ure
on B
irth
Wei
ght
by G
esta
tion
Mon
th, M
ichig
an N
on-A
rabs
pg
y,
g
AE
xpos
ure
Usi
ng
Ges
tati
onD
ata
Exp
osure
Ass
um
ing
Nor
mal
Ges
tati
onE
xpos
ure
Usi
ng
Ges
tati
on D
ata
Exp
osure
Ass
um
ing
Nor
mal
Ges
tati
on
Ex
Ara
bZip
All
Non
Ara
bs
Exc
.A
rab
Zip
All
Non
Ara
bs
Ex
Ara
b Z
ip(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)
All N
on A
rabs
Exc
. A
rab Z
ipA
ll N
on A
rabs
Mon
ths
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Ges
tati
on(7
)(8
)(9
)M
onth
s(1
)(2
)(3
)(4
)(5
)(6
)G
esta
tion
(7)
(8)
(9)
iB
ih
DB
ih
DB
ih
Mh
Bi
hD
Bi
hD
Bi
hM
hM
hB
ih
DB
ih
DB
ih
Dpri
orto
Bir
thD
ayB
irth
Day
Bir
thM
onth
Bir
thD
ayB
irth
Day
Bir
thM
onth
Mon
thB
irth
Day
Bir
thD
ay
Bir
thD
ay
pri
or t
oB
irth
Day
Bir
th D
ayB
irth
Mon
thB
irth
Day
Bir
th D
ayB
irth
Mon
thM
onth
Bir
th D
ay
Bir
th D
ay
Bir
th D
ay
Bi
thH
DD
HD
DH
DH
Bir
thH
ours
Days
Days
Hou
rsD
ays
Days
expos
ure
Hours
Days
Hours
Bir
thH
ours
Day
sD
ays
Hou
rsD
ays
Day
sex
pos
ure
Hours
Days
Hours
93
32
21
414
111
34
81
32
04
21
8*
9-3
.3-2
.2-1
.414
.111
.34.
81
-3.2
-0.4
21.8
**9
3.3
2.2
1.4
14.1
11.3
4.8
13.2
0.4
21.
8(3
3)(2
3)(2
4)(1
19)
(83)
(83)
(33)
(23)
(11
9)
(3.3
)(2
.3)
(2.4
)(1
1.9)
(8.3
)(8
.3)
(3.3
)(2
.3)
(11.9
)(3
.3)
(2.3
)(2
.4)
(11.
9)(8
.3)
(8.3
)(3
.3)
(2.3
)(1
1.9
)
80
50
82
38
44
69
72
25
30
10
98
-0.5
-0.8
-2.3
8.4
4.6
9.7
22.
53.0
10.
9(3
2)(2
3)(2
3)(1
14)
(81)
(80)
(32)
(22)
(11
2)
(3.2
)(2
.3)
(2.3
)(1
1.4
)(8
.1)
(8.0
)(3
.2)
(2.2
)(1
1.2
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)
7-2
9-2
5-4
0*
93
72
32
3-1
6-1
116
17
-2.9
-2.5
-4.0
*9.
37.
23.2
3-1
.6-1
.116.
1(3
3)(2
3)(2
3)(1
17)
(83)
(83)
(32)
(23)
(11
5)
(3.3
)(2
.3)
(2.3
)(1
1.7
)(8
.3)
(8.3
)(3
.2)
(2.3
)(1
1.5
)
60.
5-0
.10.
55.
34.
713
.54
-0.8
0.1
10.1
60.
5-0
.10.
55.
34.
713
.54
-0.8
0.1
10.
1(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(3
.3)
(2.3
)(2
.3)
(11.
6)(8
.3)
(8.3
)(3
.2)
(2.3
)(1
1.4
)(3
.3)
(2.3
)(2
.3)
(11.6
)(8
.3)
(8.3
)(3
.2)
(2.3
)(1
1.4
)
53
73
24
2*
88
71
44
50
60
75
85
-3.7
-3.2
-4.2
**8.
87.
1-4
.45
0.6
0.7
5.8
53.
73.2
4.2
8.8
7.1
4.4
50.
60.7
5.8
(33)
(24)
(24)
(11
8)(8
4)(8
3)(3
2)
(23)
(11
5)
(3.3
)(2
.4)
(2.4
)(1
1.8)
(8.4
)(8
.3)
(3.2
)(2
.3)
(11.5
)(3
.3)
(2.4
)(2
.4)
(11.
8)(8
.4)
(8.3
)(3
.2)
(2.3
)(1
1.5
)
41
00
61
92
92
511
76
01
08
55
41.
00.
6-1
.92.
92.
511
.76
0.1
0.8
5.5
(33)
(24)
(23)
(11
8)(8
5)(8
4)(3
2)
(23)
(11
5)
(3.3
)(2
.4)
(2.3
)(1
1.8
)(8
.5)
(8.4
)(3
.2)
(2.3
)(1
1.5
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)
33
82
70
59
67
12
97
08
05
22
3-3
.8-2
.70.
59.
67.
12.9
7-0
.80.5
-2.2
(33)
(23)
(23)
(11
8)(8
3)(8
4)(3
2)
(23)
(11
3)
(3.3
)(2
.3)
(2.3
)(1
1.8
)(8
.3)
(8.4
)(3
.2)
(2.3
)(1
1.3
)
2-0
.8-1
.5-3
.58.
87.
29.
18
-1.4
-1.1
8.5
2-0
.8-1
.5-3
.58.
87.
29.1
8-1
.4-1
.18.
5(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(3
.2)
(2.2
)(2
.2)
(11.
5)(8
.0)
(8.0
)(3
.1)
(2.2
)(1
1.0
)(3
.2)
(2.2
)(2
.2)
(11.5
)(8
.0)
(8.0
)(3
.1)
(2.2
)(1
1.0
)
10
80
21
44
56
23
39
48
31
25
10.
8-0
.2-1
.4-4
.5-6
.2-3
.39
-4.8
-3.1
-2.5
10.
80.2
1.4
4.5
6.2
3.3
94.8
3.1
2.5
(33)
(23)
(23)
(11
9)(8
3)(8
4)(3
2)
(23)
(11
5)
(3.3
)(2
.3)
(2.3
)(1
1.9)
(8.3
)(8
.4)
(3.2
)(2
.3)
(11.5
)(3
.3)
(2.3
)(2
.3)
(11.
9)(8
.3)
(8.4
)(3
.2)
(2.3
)(1
1.5
)
join
tte
stco
effici
ents
onm
onth
s1
to9
equal
to0
join
t te
st, co
effici
ents
on m
onth
s 1
to 9
equal
to
0j
,q
pval
ue
093
30
921
056
10
943
083
40
703
0857
0747
0677
p-v
alue
0.93
30.9
210.
561
0.9
430.
834
0.70
30.8
57
0.7
47
0.677
p join
tte
stco
effici
ents
onm
onth
s1
to9
are
equal
join
t te
st, co
effici
ents
on m
onth
s 1
to 9
are
equal
j,
qp
-val
ue
093
40
958
074
30
979
089
20
783
0813
0655
0768
p-v
alue
0.93
40.9
580.
743
0.9
790.
892
0.78
30.8
13
0.6
55
0.768
N15
6580
015
6580
015
6580
012
2844
1228
4412
2844
1070617
1070617
84675
N15
6580
015
6580
015
6580
012
2844
1228
4412
2844
1070617
1070617
84675
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
to
day
ligh
t hou
rs o
ver
subse
quen
t 30
day
s as
frac
tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
. C
olu
mns
1 a
nd
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
to
day
ligh
t hou
rs o
ver
subse
quen
t 30
day
s as
frac
tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
. C
olu
mns
1 a
nd
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
to
day
ligh
t hou
rs o
ver
subse
quen
t 30
day
s as
frac
tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
. C
olu
mns
1 a
nd
2 as
sum
e nor
mal
ges
tati
on. C
olum
ns
3 an
d 4
use
eit
her
sel
f re
por
ted o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed g
esta
tion
and u
se b
irth
s bet
wee
n 3
9 a
nd 4
2 w
eeks
tti
Cl
1d
3b
dl
fi
td
Ab
thb
dt
dt
Cl
2d
4f
tht
it
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
to
day
ligh
t hou
rs o
ver
subse
quen
t 30
day
s as
frac
tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
. C
olu
mns
1 a
nd
2 as
sum
e nor
mal
ges
tati
on. C
olum
ns
3 an
d 4
use
eit
her
sel
f re
por
ted o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed g
esta
tion
and u
se b
irth
s bet
wee
n 3
9 a
nd 4
2 w
eeks
tti
Cl
1d
3b
dl
fi
td
Ab
thb
dt
dt
Cl
2d
4f
tht
it
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
to
day
ligh
t hou
rs o
ver
subse
quen
t 30
day
s as
frac
tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
. C
olu
mns
1 a
nd
2 as
sum
e nor
mal
ges
tati
on. C
olum
ns
3 an
d 4
use
eit
her
sel
f re
por
ted o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed g
esta
tion
and u
se b
irth
s bet
wee
n 3
9 a
nd 4
2 w
eeks
gest
atio
n. C
olum
ns
1 an
d 3
use
a b
road
sam
ple
of im
pute
d n
on-A
rab m
other
s bas
ed o
n r
epor
ted a
nce
stry
or
race
. C
olu
mns
2 a
nd 4
furt
her
res
tric
t th
issa
mple
tom
oth
ers
livin
gin
zipco
des
wit
hno
Ara
bs
acc
ord
ing
toth
e2000
Cen
sus
Contr
ols
incl
ude
moth
er’s
age
moth
er’s
age
square
dm
oth
er’s
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
to
day
ligh
t hou
rs o
ver
subse
quen
t 30
day
s as
frac
tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
. C
olu
mns
1 a
nd
2 as
sum
e nor
mal
ges
tati
on. C
olum
ns
3 an
d 4
use
eit
her
sel
f re
por
ted o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed g
esta
tion
and u
se b
irth
s bet
wee
n 3
9 a
nd 4
2 w
eeks
gest
atio
n. C
olum
ns
1 an
d 3
use
a b
road
sam
ple
of im
pute
d n
on-A
rab m
other
s bas
ed o
n r
epor
ted a
nce
stry
or
race
. C
olu
mns
2 a
nd 4
furt
her
res
tric
t th
issa
mple
tom
oth
ers
livin
gin
zipco
des
wit
hno
Ara
bs
acc
ord
ing
toth
e2000
Cen
sus
Contr
ols
incl
ude
moth
er’s
age
moth
er’s
age
square
dm
oth
er’s
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
to
day
ligh
t hou
rs o
ver
subse
quen
t 30
day
s as
frac
tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
. C
olu
mns
1 a
nd
2 as
sum
e nor
mal
ges
tati
on. C
olum
ns
3 an
d 4
use
eit
her
sel
f re
por
ted o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed g
esta
tion
and u
se b
irth
s bet
wee
n 3
9 a
nd 4
2 w
eeks
gest
atio
n. C
olum
ns
1 an
d 3
use
a b
road
sam
ple
of im
pute
d n
on-A
rab m
other
s bas
ed o
n r
epor
ted a
nce
stry
or
race
. C
olu
mns
2 a
nd 4
furt
her
res
tric
t th
is s
ample
to
mot
her
s livin
g in
zip
codes
wit
h n
o A
rabs
acco
rdin
g to
the
2000
Cen
sus.
C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
mot
her
’s a
ge,
moth
er’s
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
ed
uca
tion
, to
bac
co u
se, al
cohol
use
, par
ity, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion
, dum
my for
mis
sing
fath
er’s
educa
tion
, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fat
her
’sage
square
d, num
ber
of
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
to
day
ligh
t hou
rs o
ver
subse
quen
t 30
day
s as
frac
tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
. C
olu
mns
1 a
nd
2 as
sum
e nor
mal
ges
tati
on. C
olum
ns
3 an
d 4
use
eit
her
sel
f re
por
ted o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed g
esta
tion
and u
se b
irth
s bet
wee
n 3
9 a
nd 4
2 w
eeks
gest
atio
n. C
olum
ns
1 an
d 3
use
a b
road
sam
ple
of im
pute
d n
on-A
rab m
other
s bas
ed o
n r
epor
ted a
nce
stry
or
race
. C
olu
mns
2 a
nd 4
furt
her
res
tric
t th
is s
ample
to
mot
her
s livin
g in
zip
codes
wit
h n
o A
rabs
acco
rdin
g to
the
2000
Cen
sus.
C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
mot
her
’s a
ge,
moth
er’s
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
ed
uca
tion
, to
bac
co u
se, al
cohol
use
, par
ity, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion
, dum
my for
mis
sing
fath
er’s
educa
tion
, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fat
her
’sage
square
d, num
ber
of
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
to
day
ligh
t hou
rs o
ver
subse
quen
t 30
day
s as
frac
tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
. C
olu
mns
1 a
nd
2 as
sum
e nor
mal
ges
tati
on. C
olum
ns
3 an
d 4
use
eit
her
sel
f re
por
ted o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed g
esta
tion
and u
se b
irth
s bet
wee
n 3
9 a
nd 4
2 w
eeks
gest
atio
n. C
olum
ns
1 an
d 3
use
a b
road
sam
ple
of im
pute
d n
on-A
rab m
other
s bas
ed o
n r
epor
ted a
nce
stry
or
race
. C
olu
mns
2 a
nd 4
furt
her
res
tric
t th
is s
ample
to
mot
her
s livin
g in
zip
codes
wit
h n
o A
rabs
acco
rdin
g to
the
2000
Cen
sus.
C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
mot
her
’s a
ge,
moth
er’s
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
ed
uca
tion
, to
bac
co u
se, al
cohol
use
, par
ity, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion
, dum
my for
mis
sing
fath
er’s
educa
tion
, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
square
d, num
ber
of
pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
bir
th, co
nce
pti
on (
or b
irth
) m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
d b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.*
%**
%**
*%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
to
day
ligh
t hou
rs o
ver
subse
quen
t 30
day
s as
frac
tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
. C
olu
mns
1 a
nd
2 as
sum
e nor
mal
ges
tati
on. C
olum
ns
3 an
d 4
use
eit
her
sel
f re
por
ted o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed g
esta
tion
and u
se b
irth
s bet
wee
n 3
9 a
nd 4
2 w
eeks
gest
atio
n. C
olum
ns
1 an
d 3
use
a b
road
sam
ple
of im
pute
d n
on-A
rab m
other
s bas
ed o
n r
epor
ted a
nce
stry
or
race
. C
olu
mns
2 a
nd 4
furt
her
res
tric
t th
is s
ample
to
mot
her
s livin
g in
zip
codes
wit
h n
o A
rabs
acco
rdin
g to
the
2000
Cen
sus.
C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
mot
her
’s a
ge,
moth
er’s
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
ed
uca
tion
, to
bac
co u
se, al
cohol
use
, par
ity, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion
, dum
my for
mis
sing
fath
er’s
educa
tion
, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
square
d, num
ber
of
pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
bir
th, co
nce
pti
on (
or b
irth
) m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
d b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.*
%**
%**
*%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
to
day
ligh
t hou
rs o
ver
subse
quen
t 30
day
s as
frac
tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
. C
olu
mns
1 a
nd
2 as
sum
e nor
mal
ges
tati
on. C
olum
ns
3 an
d 4
use
eit
her
sel
f re
por
ted o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed g
esta
tion
and u
se b
irth
s bet
wee
n 3
9 a
nd 4
2 w
eeks
gest
atio
n. C
olum
ns
1 an
d 3
use
a b
road
sam
ple
of im
pute
d n
on-A
rab m
other
s bas
ed o
n r
epor
ted a
nce
stry
or
race
. C
olu
mns
2 a
nd 4
furt
her
res
tric
t th
is s
ample
to
mot
her
s livin
g in
zip
codes
wit
h n
o A
rabs
acco
rdin
g to
the
2000
Cen
sus.
C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
mot
her
’s a
ge,
moth
er’s
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
ed
uca
tion
, to
bac
co u
se, al
cohol
use
, par
ity, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion
, dum
my for
mis
sing
fath
er’s
educa
tion
, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
square
d, num
ber
of
pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
bir
th, co
nce
pti
on (
or b
irth
) m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
d b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.Sta
ndar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%
; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
to
day
ligh
t hou
rs o
ver
subse
quen
t 30
day
s as
frac
tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
. C
olu
mns
1 a
nd
2 as
sum
e nor
mal
ges
tati
on. C
olum
ns
3 an
d 4
use
eit
her
sel
f re
por
ted o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed g
esta
tion
and u
se b
irth
s bet
wee
n 3
9 a
nd 4
2 w
eeks
gest
atio
n. C
olum
ns
1 an
d 3
use
a b
road
sam
ple
of im
pute
d n
on-A
rab m
other
s bas
ed o
n r
epor
ted a
nce
stry
or
race
. C
olu
mns
2 a
nd 4
furt
her
res
tric
t th
is s
ample
to
mot
her
s livin
g in
zip
codes
wit
h n
o A
rabs
acco
rdin
g to
the
2000
Cen
sus.
C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
mot
her
’s a
ge,
moth
er’s
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
ed
uca
tion
, to
bac
co u
se, al
cohol
use
, par
ity, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion
, dum
my for
mis
sing
fath
er’s
educa
tion
, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
square
d, num
ber
of
pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
bir
th, co
nce
pti
on (
or b
irth
) m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
d b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.Sta
ndar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%
; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
to
day
ligh
t hou
rs o
ver
subse
quen
t 30
day
s as
frac
tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
. C
olu
mns
1 a
nd
2 as
sum
e nor
mal
ges
tati
on. C
olum
ns
3 an
d 4
use
eit
her
sel
f re
por
ted o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed g
esta
tion
and u
se b
irth
s bet
wee
n 3
9 a
nd 4
2 w
eeks
gest
atio
n. C
olum
ns
1 an
d 3
use
a b
road
sam
ple
of im
pute
d n
on-A
rab m
other
s bas
ed o
n r
epor
ted a
nce
stry
or
race
. C
olu
mns
2 a
nd 4
furt
her
res
tric
t th
is s
ample
to
mot
her
s livin
g in
zip
codes
wit
h n
o A
rabs
acco
rdin
g to
the
2000
Cen
sus.
C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
mot
her
’s a
ge,
moth
er’s
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
ed
uca
tion
, to
bac
co u
se, al
cohol
use
, par
ity, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion
, dum
my for
mis
sing
fath
er’s
educa
tion
, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
square
d, num
ber
of
pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
bir
th, co
nce
pti
on (
or b
irth
) m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
d b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.Sta
ndar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%
; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
to
day
ligh
t hou
rs o
ver
subse
quen
t 30
day
s as
frac
tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
. C
olu
mns
1 a
nd
2 as
sum
e nor
mal
ges
tati
on. C
olum
ns
3 an
d 4
use
eit
her
sel
f re
por
ted o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed g
esta
tion
and u
se b
irth
s bet
wee
n 3
9 a
nd 4
2 w
eeks
gest
atio
n. C
olum
ns
1 an
d 3
use
a b
road
sam
ple
of im
pute
d n
on-A
rab m
other
s bas
ed o
n r
epor
ted a
nce
stry
or
race
. C
olu
mns
2 a
nd 4
furt
her
res
tric
t th
is s
ample
to
mot
her
s livin
g in
zip
codes
wit
h n
o A
rabs
acco
rdin
g to
the
2000
Cen
sus.
C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
mot
her
’s a
ge,
moth
er’s
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
ed
uca
tion
, to
bac
co u
se, al
cohol
use
, par
ity, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion
, dum
my for
mis
sing
fath
er’s
educa
tion
, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
square
d, num
ber
of
pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
bir
th, co
nce
pti
on (
or b
irth
) m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
d b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.Sta
ndar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%
; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Tab
le 3
: E
ffec
ts o
f R
amad
an E
xposu
re o
n S
ex a
t B
irth
and L
ive
Bir
ths,
Mic
hig
an A
rabs
and N
on A
rabs
Ges
tati
on(1
)(2
)(3
)(4
)(5
)(6
)(7
)(8
)(9
)(1
0)M
onth
All
Ara
bs
Exc.
All
Non
-Ara
bex
pos
ure
Ara
bs
Chal
dea
n Z
ipN
on-A
rabs
Zip
codes
Tot
alM
ale
Fem
ale
Tot
alM
ale
Fem
ale
0-0
.032
-0.0
330.
003
0.00
70.
063
0.00
30.
090
0.03
00.
050
0.04
4(0
.021
)(0
.025)
(0.0
03)
(0.0
12)
(0.0
68)
(0.0
87)
(0.0
97)
(0.0
40)
(0.0
49)
(0.0
47)
1-0
.037
*-0
.066
***
0.00
20.
011
-0.1
64**
-0.2
58**
*-0
.043
0.04
20.
051
0.03
1(0
.020
)(0
.023)
(0.0
03)
(0.0
12)
(0.0
63)
(0.0
82)
(0.0
87)
(0.0
35)
(0.0
44)
(0.0
42)
2-0
.008
-0.0
080.
001
-0.0
19-0
.007
0.01
70.
021
-0.0
16-0
.005
0.02
2(0
.020
)(0
.024)
(0.0
03)
(0.0
12)
(0.0
66)
(0.0
86)
(0.0
93)
(0.0
41)
(0.0
49)
(0.0
48)
3-0
.002
-0.0
070.
002
-0.0
09-0
.088
-0.1
43*
-0.0
600.
029
-0.0
100.
076
(0.0
20)
(0.0
24)
(0.0
03)
(0.0
12)
(0.0
65)
(0.0
83)
(0.0
93)
(0.0
39)
(0.0
48)
(0.0
46)
4-0
.022
-0.0
300.
002
-0.0
070.
047
-0.0
370.
084
0.04
50.
054
0.06
6(0
.020
)(0
.024)
(0.0
03)
(0.0
12)
(0.0
70)
(0.0
90)
(0.0
96)
(0.0
42)
(0.0
49)
(0.0
47)
50.
005
-0.0
15
0.0
01
0.01
4-0
.035
-0.0
550.
004
0.02
30.
032
0.02
1(0
.020
)(0
.024)
(0.0
03)
(0.0
12)
(0.0
69)
(0.0
84)
(0.0
97)
(0.0
38)
(0.0
48)
(0.0
46)
6-0
.013
-0.0
220.
001
-0.0
110.
037
-0.0
210.
078
-0.0
12-0
.018
0.02
4(0
.020
)(0
.024)
(0.0
03)
(0.0
12)
(0.0
66)
(0.0
85)
(0.0
90)
(0.0
38)
(0.0
48)
(0.0
45)
70
012
000
90
002
001
80
113
008
30
148
001
20
039
001
4
Dep
enden
t V
aria
ble
is
Mal
e
Ara
b S
ample
Non
-Ara
b S
ample
Dep
enden
t V
aria
ble
is
Log
Liv
e B
irth
s (T
otal
, M
ale
Fem
ale)
7-0
.012
-0.0
090.
002
0.01
8-0
.113
-0.0
83-0
.148
0.0
120.0
39-0
.014
(0.0
20)
(0.0
23)
(0.0
03)
(0.0
12)
(0.0
69)
(0.0
84)
(0.0
94)
(0.0
39)
(0.0
48)
(0.0
47)
8-0
.026
-0.0
310.
001
-0.0
050.
008
-0.0
630.
088
0.05
60.
038
0.07
7*(0
.019
)(0
.023)
(0.0
03)
(0.0
11)
(0.0
63)
(0.0
78)
(0.0
87)
(0.0
35)
(0.0
45)
(0.0
42)
9-0
.030
-0.0
300.
003
0.00
10.
003
-0.0
630.
060
0.00
70.
020
0.00
6(0
.020
)(0
.024
)(0
.003
)(0
.012
)(0
.068
)(0
.083
)(0
.097
)(0
.039
)(0
.049
)(0
.046
)
join
t te
st, co
effici
ents
on m
onth
s 1
to 9
equal
to
0p
-valu
e0.
520.3
41.
000.
210.
190.
340.
630.
690.
800.
58
N41
153
2995
514
3401
411
2516
216
216
216
216
216
216
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng s
am
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d. A
ll s
am
ple
s use
bir
ths
wit
h g
esta
tion b
etw
een 3
7 a
nd 4
2
wee
ks
and incl
ude
contr
ols
for
moth
er’s
age,
moth
er’s
age
square
d, m
oth
er’s
educa
tion, to
bacc
o u
se, alc
ohol use
, pari
ty, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion,
dum
my for
mis
sing fath
er’s
educa
tion, fa
ther
’s a
ge,
fath
er’s
age
square
d, num
ber
of pre
vio
us
pre
gnanci
es t
hat
resu
lted
in d
eath
at
bir
th,
conce
pti
on m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.
The
Ara
b s
am
ple
in c
olu
mns
5 t
hro
ugh 7
dro
ps
Ara
b m
oth
ers
livin
g in z
ipco
des
with a
larg
e sh
are
of C
hald
eans.
T
he
non-A
rab s
am
ple
in c
olu
mns
8 t
hro
ugh 1
0 d
rops
pre
sum
ed N
on A
rab m
oth
ers
livin
g in z
ipco
des
wit
h a
n A
rab p
rese
nce
. Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
are
nth
eses
. It
alici
zed e
stim
ate
s m
ay r
epre
sent
post
nata
l ex
posu
re for
som
e sa
mple
mem
ber
s.
*si
gnific
ant
at
10%
; ** s
ignific
ant
at
5%
; *** s
ignific
ant
at
1%
Tab
le4:
Effec
tsof
Ram
adan
Expos
ure
onC
har
acte
rist
ics
ofP
regn
anci
esR
esult
ing
inLiv
eB
irth
sM
ichig
anA
rabs
Tab
le 4
: E
ffec
ts o
f R
amad
an E
xpos
ure
on C
har
acte
rist
ics
of P
regn
anci
es R
esult
ing
in L
ive
Bir
ths,
Mic
hig
an A
rabs
gg
g
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
Ges
tati
onP
revio
us
Fat
her
’sP
revio
us
Dia
bet
esG
esta
tion
Pre
vio
us
Fat
her
sP
revio
us
Dia
bet
esM
hM
h’
Mh
’F
h’
Fh
’C
hild
Ed
Sll
Ri
kM
onth
Mot
her
’sM
other
’sFat
her
’s
Fat
her
’sC
hild
Educ.
Sm
all
Ris
kM
onth
Mot
her
sM
other
sFat
her
s Fat
her
sC
hild
Educ.
Sm
all
Ris
kE
Ed
tiM
di
idA
AE
dti
Tb
Al
hl
Pit
BD
dM
iB
bF
tE
xpos
ure
Educa
tion
Med
icai
dA
geA
geE
duca
tion
Tob
acco
Alc
ohol
Par
ity
Born
Dea
dM
iss.
Bab
yFac
tor
Expos
ure
Educa
tion
Med
icai
dA
geA
geE
duca
tion
Tob
acco
Alc
ohol
Par
ity
Born
Dea
dM
iss.
Bab
yFac
tor
00
030
000
10
111
025
60
007
000
10
002
004
00
029
000
70
001
000
80
0.0
300.
001
-0.1
11-0
.256
-0.0
070.
001
-0.0
020.
040
-0.0
29-0
.007
0.00
1-0
.008
00.
030
0.00
10.
111
0.25
60.
007
0.00
10.
002
0.04
00.
029
0.00
70.
001
0.00
8(0
138
)(0
019)
(022
6)(0
261)
(013
4)(0
008)
(000
2)(0
060)
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Not
es:
All
entr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
onR
amad
anex
pos
ure
today
ligh
thou
rsov
ersu
bse
quen
t30
day
sas
fract
ion
ofpea
kdaylight
hours
Not
es:
All
entr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
onR
amad
anex
pos
ure
today
ligh
thou
rsov
ersu
bse
quen
t30
day
sas
fract
ion
ofpea
kdaylight
hours
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng s
ample
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed. A
ll s
ample
s use
bir
ths
wit
h g
esta
tion
bet
wee
n 3
7 an
d 4
2 N
otes
:A
ll e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng s
ample
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed. A
ll s
ample
s use
bir
ths
wit
h g
esta
tion
bet
wee
n 3
7 an
d 4
2 N
otes
:A
ll e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng s
am
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d. A
ll s
am
ple
s use
bir
ths
wit
h g
esta
tion b
etw
een 3
7 a
nd 4
2
wee
ks.
R
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
dum
mie
s fo
r co
nce
pti
on m
onth
, co
unty
and b
irth
yea
r. I
talici
zed e
stim
ate
s m
ay r
epre
sent
post
nata
l f
lb
St
dd
ith
*i
ifi
tt
10%
**
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tt
5%
***
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tt
1%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng s
am
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d. A
ll s
am
ple
s use
bir
ths
wit
h g
esta
tion b
etw
een 3
7 a
nd 4
2
wee
ks.
R
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
dum
mie
s fo
r co
nce
pti
on m
onth
, co
unty
and b
irth
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r. I
talici
zed e
stim
ate
s m
ay r
epre
sent
post
nata
l f
lb
St
dd
ith
*i
ifi
tt
10%
**
iifi
tt
5%
***
iifi
tt
1%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng s
am
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d. A
ll s
am
ple
s use
bir
ths
wit
h g
esta
tion b
etw
een 3
7 a
nd 4
2
wee
ks.
R
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
dum
mie
s fo
r co
nce
pti
on m
onth
, co
unty
and b
irth
yea
r. I
talici
zed e
stim
ate
s m
ay r
epre
sent
post
nata
l ex
posu
re for
som
e sa
mple
mem
ber
s. S
tandar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng s
am
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d. A
ll s
am
ple
s use
bir
ths
wit
h g
esta
tion b
etw
een 3
7 a
nd 4
2
wee
ks.
R
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
dum
mie
s fo
r co
nce
pti
on m
onth
, co
unty
and b
irth
yea
r. I
talici
zed e
stim
ate
s m
ay r
epre
sent
post
nata
l ex
posu
re for
som
e sa
mple
mem
ber
s. S
tandar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng s
am
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d. A
ll s
am
ple
s use
bir
ths
wit
h g
esta
tion b
etw
een 3
7 a
nd 4
2
wee
ks.
R
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
dum
mie
s fo
r co
nce
pti
on m
onth
, co
unty
and b
irth
yea
r. I
talici
zed e
stim
ate
s m
ay r
epre
sent
post
nata
l ex
posu
re for
som
e sa
mple
mem
ber
s. S
tandar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Tab
le5:
Effec
tsof
Ram
adan
Expos
ure
inM
onth
sP
rior
toB
irth
onD
isab
ilit
yO
utc
omes
inU
ganda
Tab
le 5
: E
ffec
ts o
f R
amad
an E
xpos
ure
in M
onth
s P
rior
to
Bir
th o
n D
isab
ilit
y O
utc
omes
in U
ganda
Mli
NM
liM
usl
ims
Non
-Musl
ims
Mth
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
Musl
ims
Non
Musl
ims
Mon
ths
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
Mon
ths
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
Pi
tSi
ht/
Hi
/M
tl/
Si
ht/
Hi
/M
tl/
Pri
or t
oSig
ht/
Hea
ring/
Men
tal/
Sig
ht/
Hea
ring/
Men
tal/
Pri
or t
oSig
ht/
Hea
ring/
Men
tal/
Sig
ht/
Hea
ring/
Men
tal/
Bi
thD
ibilit
Bli
dD
fL
iP
hD
ibilit
Bli
dD
fL
iP
hB
irth
Dis
abilit
yB
lind
Dea
fLea
rnin
gP
sych
.D
isab
ilit
yB
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Dea
fLea
rnin
gP
sych
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tyd
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gsy
csa
bty
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syc
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819*
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024
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025
0***
009
80
023
005
20
028
0037
0045
90.
819*
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349*
0.2
43**
0.25
0***
-0.0
98-0
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520.0
28
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37
0.045
(035
9)(0
193)
(011
7)(0
071)
(007
2)(0
146)
(008
0)(0
052)
(0028)
(0030)
(0.3
59)
(0.1
93)
(0.1
17)
(0.0
71)
(0.0
72)
(0.1
46)
(0.0
80)
(0.0
52)
(0.0
28)
(0.0
30)
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
80.
087
-0.0
780.
162
0.10
3-0
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0.0
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28
(033
7)(0
180)
(011
0)(0
066)
(006
7)(0
137)
(007
5)(0
049)
(0026)
(0028)
(0.3
37)
(0.1
80)
(0.1
10)
(0.0
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(0.0
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(0.1
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(0.0
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(0.0
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(0.0
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(0.0
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(0.3
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(0.1
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(0.1
10)
(0.0
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(0.0
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(0.1
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(0.0
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70
132
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130.0
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0.010
(034
9)(0
187)
(011
4)(0
069)
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9)(0
142)
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8)(0
051)
(0027)
(0029)
(0.3
49)
(0.1
87)
(0.1
14)
(0.0
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(0.0
69)
(0.1
42)
(0.0
78)
(0.0
51)
(0.0
27)
(0.0
29)
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
60.
197
0.07
40.
161
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0-0
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910.
082
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07
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60.
197
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082
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07
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17
0.017
()
()
()
()
()
(44
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(0
.353
)(0
.189
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.115
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)(0
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(0.0
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(0.3
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(0.1
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(0.0
70)
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(0.0
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111
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8)(0
187)
(011
4)(0
069)
(006
9)(0
143)
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9)(0
051)
(0027)
(0029)
(0.3
48)
(0.1
87)
(0.1
14)
(0.0
69)
(0.0
69)
(0.1
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(0.0
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()
()
()
()
()
()
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()
40
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()
()
()
()
()
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()
()
()
(0.3
52)
(0.1
89)
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(0.0
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(0.1
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(0.0
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(0.3
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(0.1
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(0.1
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(0.0
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(0.1
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(0.0
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(0.0
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00
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00
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000
00
(036
4)(0
195)
(011
9)(0
072)
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3)(0
147)
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1)(0
053)
(0028)
(0030)
(0.3
64)
(0.1
95)
(0.1
19)
(0.0
72)
(0.0
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(0.1
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(0.0
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(0.0
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(0.0
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(0.0
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()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
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2-0
266
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20
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-001
90
039
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()
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(0.3
50)
(0.1
87)
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(0.0
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(0.0
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3)(0
148)
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2)(0
053)
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(0030)
(0.3
66)
(0.1
96)
(0.1
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(0.0
72)
(0.0
73)
(0.1
48)
(0.0
82)
(0.0
53)
(0.0
28)
(0.0
30)
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
join
tte
stco
effici
ents
onm
onth
s1
to9
equal
to0
join
t te
st, co
effici
ents
on m
onth
s 1
to 9
equal
to 0
p-v
alue
0.39
00.
560
0.48
00.
040
0.74
00.
670
0.29
00.8
90
0.5
60
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50
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alue
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00.
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00.8
90
0.5
60
0.650
join
tte
st,co
effici
ents
onm
onth
s1
to9
are
equal
join
t te
st, co
effici
ents
on m
onth
s 1
to 9
are
equal
l4
77
44
p-v
alue
0.31
00.
460
0.83
00.
290
0.75
00.
570
0.24
00.9
10
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90
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80
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alue
0.31
00.
460
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00.2
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570
0.24
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10
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90
0.580
M3
80%
106
%0
38%
014
%0
14%
521
%1
49%
061%
017%
020%
Mea
n3.
80%
1.06
%0.
38%
0.14
%0.
14%
5.21
%1.
49%
0.6
1%
0.1
7%
0.2
0%
Mea
n3.
80%
1.06
%0.
38%
0.14
%0.1
4%5.
21%
1.49
%0.6
1%
0.1
7%
0.20%
N80
924
8092
280
923
809
2180
921
6408
2564
0789
640781
640777
640776
N80
924
8092
280
923
8092
180
921
6408
2564
0789
640781
640777
640776
N80
924
8092
280
923
809
2180
921
6408
2564
0789
640781
640777
640776
Not
es:
All
entr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on
Ram
adan
exposu
rem
easu
red
as
the
per
cent
ofdays
over
lappin
gw
ith
Ram
adan
duri
ng
the
nin
eN
otes
:A
ll e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
spre
cedin
gbir
th(r
am
pct
).E
ach
outc
om
eis
mult
iplied
by
100,so
that
coef
fici
ents
are
inunit
sofper
centa
ge
poin
ts.
All
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
spre
cedin
gbir
th(r
am
pct
).E
ach
outc
om
eis
mult
iplied
by
100,so
that
coef
fici
ents
are
inunit
sofper
centa
ge
poin
ts.
All
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g bir
th (
ram
pct
). E
ach o
utc
ome
is m
ult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge
poin
ts. A
ll
regre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
an indic
ato
r fo
r fe
male
, bir
th m
onth
dum
mie
s, d
istr
ict
of bir
th d
um
mie
s and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g bir
th (
ram
pct
). E
ach o
utc
ome
is m
ult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge
poin
ts. A
ll
regre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
an indic
ato
r fo
r fe
male
, bir
th m
onth
dum
mie
s, d
istr
ict
of bir
th d
um
mie
s and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.
Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
are
nth
eses
, *si
gnific
ant
at
10%
; ** s
ignific
ant
at
5%
; *** s
ignific
ant
at
1%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g bir
th (
ram
pct
). E
ach o
utc
ome
is m
ult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge
poin
ts. A
ll
regre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
an indic
ato
r fo
r fe
male
, bir
th m
onth
dum
mie
s, d
istr
ict
of bir
th d
um
mie
s and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.
Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
are
nth
eses
, *si
gnific
ant
at
10%
; ** s
ignific
ant
at
5%
; *** s
ignific
ant
at
1%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g bir
th (
ram
pct
). E
ach o
utc
ome
is m
ult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge
poin
ts. A
ll
regre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
an indic
ato
r fo
r fe
male
, bir
th m
onth
dum
mie
s, d
istr
ict
of bir
th d
um
mie
s and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.
Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
are
nth
eses
, *si
gnific
ant
at
10%
; ** s
ignific
ant
at
5%
; *** s
ignific
ant
at
1%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g bir
th (
ram
pct
). E
ach o
utc
ome
is m
ult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge
poin
ts. A
ll
regre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
an indic
ato
r fo
r fe
male
, bir
th m
onth
dum
mie
s, d
istr
ict
of bir
th d
um
mie
s and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.
Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
are
nth
eses
, *si
gnific
ant
at
10%
; ** s
ignific
ant
at
5%
; *** s
ignific
ant
at
1%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g bir
th (
ram
pct
). E
ach o
utc
ome
is m
ult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge
poin
ts. A
ll
regre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
an indic
ato
r fo
r fe
male
, bir
th m
onth
dum
mie
s, d
istr
ict
of bir
th d
um
mie
s and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.
Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
are
nth
eses
, *si
gnific
ant
at
10%
; ** s
ignific
ant
at
5%
; *** s
ignific
ant
at
1%
Tab
le6:
Effec
tsof
Ram
adan
Expos
ure
inM
onth
sP
rior
toB
irth
onO
ther
Outc
omes
Uga
ndan
Musl
ims
Tab
le 6
: E
ffec
ts o
f R
amad
an E
xpos
ure
in M
onth
s P
rior
to
Bir
th o
n O
ther
Outc
omes
, U
gandan
Musl
ims
p,
g
SC
ii
fA
dl
Pl
iS
ii
OSex
Com
pos
itio
n o
f A
dult
Popula
tion
Soc
ioec
onom
ic O
utc
om
es
h(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)
Sex
Com
pos
itio
n o
f A
dult
Pop
ula
tion
Soc
ioec
onom
ic O
utc
om
es
Mon
ths
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
Mon
ths
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
Pi
LL
LH
Yf
NP
rior
to
Log
Log
Log
Hom
e Y
ears
of
No
Pri
or t
oLog
Log
Log
Hom
e Y
ears
of
No
Bi
thM
lP
lti
Ml
Fl
Ohi
Illit
tS
hli
Sh
liE
ld
Bir
thM
ale
Popula
tion
Mal
esFem
ales
Ow
ner
ship
Illite
rate
Sch
ooling
Sch
ooling
Em
plo
yed
Bir
thM
ale
Pop
ula
tion
Mal
esFem
ales
Ow
ner
ship
Illite
rate
Sch
ooling
Sch
ooling
Em
plo
yed
90
020*
*0
001
003
00
053
002
6**
000
80
088
0004
0000
9-0
.020
**0.
001
-0.0
300.
053
-0.0
26**
0.00
8-0
.088
-0.0
04
0.0
00
90.
020
0.00
10.
030
0.05
30.
026
0.00
80.
088
0.0
04
0.0
00
(000
9)(0
047)
(005
9)(0
065)
(001
2)(0
008)
(006
8)(0
007)
(0009)
(0.0
09)
(0.0
47)
(0.0
59)
(0.0
65)
(0.0
12)
(0.0
08)
(0.0
68)
(0.0
07)
(0.0
09)
(0.0
09)
(0.0
47)
(0.0
59)
(0.0
65)
(0.0
12)
(0.0
08)
(0.0
68)
(0.0
07)
(0.0
09)
80
015*
001
50
034
008
10
021*
001
5**
011
9*0
007
0001
8-0
.015
*0.0
15-0
.034
0.08
1-0
.021
*-0
.015
**0.1
19*
-0.0
07
-0.0
01
(000
9)(0
044)
(005
6)(0
062)
(001
1)(0
007)
(006
4)(0
007)
(0008)
(0.0
09)
(0.0
44)
(0.0
56)
(0.0
62)
(0.0
11)
(0.0
07)
(0.0
64)
(0.0
07)
(0.0
08)
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
7-0
.003
0.00
7-0
.055
0.08
3-0
.017
0.00
7-0
.009
0.0
01
-0.0
09
7-0
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0.0
07-0
.055
0.08
3-0
.017
0.00
7-0
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0.001
-0.0
09
(000
9)(0
045)
(005
7)(0
063)
(001
1)(0
008)
(006
6)(0
007)
(0009)
(0.0
09)
(0.0
45)
(0.0
57)
(0.0
63)
(0.0
11)
(0.0
08)
(0.0
66)
(0.0
07)
(0.0
09)
(0.0
09)
(0.0
45)
(0.0
57)
(0.0
63)
(0.0
11)
(0.0
08)
(0.0
66)
(0.0
07)
(0.0
09)
60
021*
*0
047
008
10
010
008
001
4*0
010
013*
0013
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-0.0
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010.
008
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14*
0.01
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13*
0.0
13
(000
9)(0
045)
(005
7)(0
063)
(001
1)(0
008)
(006
7)(0
007)
(0009)
(0.0
09)
(0.0
45)
(0.0
57)
(0.0
63)
(0.0
11)
(0.0
08)
(0.0
67)
(0.0
07)
(0.0
09)
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
5-0
015
006
90
014
015
0**
-001
80
012
-001
50
005
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*5
-0.0
150.0
690.0
140.1
50**
-0.0
180.
012
-0.0
150.
005
-0.0
19**
(000
9)(0
045)
(005
7)(0
064)
(001
1)(0
008)
(006
7)(0
007)
(0009)
(0.0
09)
(0.0
45)
(0.0
57)
(0.0
64)
(0.0
11)
(0.0
08)
(0.0
67)
(0.0
07)
(0.0
09)
40
016*
000
20
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036
001
00
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004
50
006
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036
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008
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01
40.0
160.0
020.0
30.
036
0.01
00.
008
0.0
450.
006
0.001
(000
9)(0
045)
(005
7)(0
064)
(001
1)(0
008)
(006
7)(0
007)
(0009)
(0.0
09)
(0.0
45)
(0.0
57)
(0.0
64)
(0.0
11)
(0.0
08)
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67)
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07)
(0.0
09)
(0.0
09)
(0.0
45)
(0.0
57)
(0.0
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(0.0
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30
026*
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8**
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80
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20
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***
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0.00
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0)(0
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7)(0
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2)(0
008)
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9)(0
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(0.0
10)
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46)
(0.0
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(0.0
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12)
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08)
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()
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2-0
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9)(0
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6)(0
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1)(0
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7)(0
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10
009
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50
031
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20
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031
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0)(0
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9)(0
065)
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2)(0
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9)(0
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47)
(0.0
59)
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65)
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12)
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08)
(0.0
69)
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()
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join
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effici
ents
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onth
s1
to9
equal
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st, co
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Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amadan d
uri
ng
the
nin
e N
otes
:A
ll e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amadan d
uri
ng
the
nin
e N
otes
:A
ll e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amadan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. C
olu
mns
2-4
use
data
on p
opula
tion
tt
dt
thl
lfbi
thd
bi
thth
Cl
1d
l5
9l
il
ddi
ti
tfbi
thd
i
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amadan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. C
olu
mns
2-4
use
data
on p
opula
tion
tt
dt
thl
lfbi
thd
bi
thth
Cl
1d
l5
9l
il
ddi
ti
tfbi
thd
i
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amadan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. C
olu
mns
2-4
use
data
on p
opula
tion
counts
aggre
gate
d t
o t
he
level
of bir
th y
ear
and b
irth
month
. C
olu
mn 1
and c
olu
mns
5-9
als
o incl
ude
dis
tric
t of bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Col
um
n5
isre
stri
cted
tom
enC
olum
ns
69
incl
ude
adum
my
for
fem
ales
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amadan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. C
olu
mns
2-4
use
data
on p
opula
tion
counts
aggre
gate
d t
o t
he
level
of bir
th y
ear
and b
irth
month
. C
olu
mn 1
and c
olu
mns
5-9
als
o incl
ude
dis
tric
t of bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Col
um
n5
isre
stri
cted
tom
enC
olum
ns
69
incl
ude
adum
my
for
fem
ales
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amadan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. C
olu
mns
2-4
use
data
on p
opula
tion
counts
aggre
gate
d t
o t
he
level
of bir
th y
ear
and b
irth
month
. C
olu
mn 1
and c
olu
mns
5-9
als
o incl
ude
dis
tric
t of bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Col
um
n 5
is
rest
rict
ed t
o m
en. C
olum
ns
6-9
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.
Sta
ndard
erro
rsin
pare
nth
eses
*si
gnific
ant
at
10%
;**
signific
ant
at
5%
;***
signific
ant
at
1%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amadan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. C
olu
mns
2-4
use
data
on p
opula
tion
counts
aggre
gate
d t
o t
he
level
of bir
th y
ear
and b
irth
month
. C
olu
mn 1
and c
olu
mns
5-9
als
o incl
ude
dis
tric
t of bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Col
um
n 5
is
rest
rict
ed t
o m
en. C
olum
ns
6-9
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.
Sta
ndard
erro
rsin
pare
nth
eses
*si
gnific
ant
at
10%
;**
signific
ant
at
5%
;***
signific
ant
at
1%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amadan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. C
olu
mns
2-4
use
data
on p
opula
tion
counts
aggre
gate
d t
o t
he
level
of bir
th y
ear
and b
irth
month
. C
olu
mn 1
and c
olu
mns
5-9
als
o incl
ude
dis
tric
t of bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Col
um
n 5
is
rest
rict
ed t
o m
en. C
olum
ns
6-9
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.
Sta
ndar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amadan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. C
olu
mns
2-4
use
data
on p
opula
tion
counts
aggre
gate
d t
o t
he
level
of bir
th y
ear
and b
irth
month
. C
olu
mn 1
and c
olu
mns
5-9
als
o incl
ude
dis
tric
t of bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Col
um
n 5
is
rest
rict
ed t
o m
en. C
olum
ns
6-9
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.
Sta
ndar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amadan d
uri
ng t
he
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. C
olu
mns
2-4
use
data
on p
opula
tion
counts
aggre
gate
d t
o t
he
level
of bir
th y
ear
and b
irth
month
. C
olu
mn 1
and c
olu
mns
5-9
als
o incl
ude
dis
tric
t of bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Col
um
n 5
is
rest
rict
ed t
o m
en. C
olum
ns
6-9
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.
Sta
ndar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Tab
le7:
Effec
tsof
Ram
adan
Expos
ure
inM
onth
sP
rior
toB
irth
onV
ario
us
Outc
omes
Iraq
Tab
le 7
: E
ffec
ts o
f R
amad
an E
xpos
ure
in M
onth
s P
rior
to
Bir
th o
n V
ario
us
Outc
omes
, Ir
aqp
,q
Di
bili
OS
ii
OD
isab
ilit
y O
utc
omes
Soc
ioec
onom
ic O
utc
omes
h(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)
Dis
abilit
y O
utc
omes
Soc
ioec
onom
ic O
utc
omes
Mon
ths
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
Mon
ths
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
Pi
Bli
d/
Df/
Ml
il
HP
rior
to
Blind/
Dea
f/M
ult
iple
Hom
eP
rior
to
Blind/
Dea
f/M
ult
iple
Hom
eB
ith
Di
bilit
Vi
iH
iP
hW
iO
hi
Ml
El
dB
irth
Dis
abilit
yV
isio
nH
eari
ng
Psy
ch.
Wiv
esO
wner
ship
Mal
eE
mplo
yed
Bir
thD
isab
ilit
yV
isio
nH
eari
ng
Psy
ch.
Wiv
esO
wner
ship
Mal
eE
mplo
yed
90
333*
*0
022
000
20
228*
**0
542*
*1
422*
*0
355
1097**
90.
333**
0.02
2-0
.002
0.22
8**
*-0
.542
**-1
.422
**0.
355
1.0
97**
90.
333
0.02
20.
002
0.22
80.
542
1.42
20.
355
1.0
97
(014
1)(0
041)
(001
6)(0
070)
(027
6)(0
724)
(058
6)(0
444)
(0.1
41)
(0.0
41)
(0.0
16)
(0.0
70)
(0.2
76)
(0.7
24)
(0.5
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Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
nN
otes
:A
ll e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
nN
otes
:A
ll e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
nm
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. E
ach
outc
om
e is
mult
iplie
tht
ffi
it
iit
ft
it
Cl
5d
6t
it
dt
All
il
d
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
nm
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. E
ach
outc
om
e is
mult
iplie
tht
ffi
it
iit
ft
it
Cl
5d
6t
it
dt
All
il
d
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
nm
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. E
ach
outc
om
e is
mult
iplie
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. C
olum
ns
5 an
d 6
are
res
tric
ted t
o m
en. A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
on p
oole
d s
am
pan
dw
omen
incl
ude
adum
my
for
fem
ales
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
nm
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. E
ach
outc
om
e is
mult
iplie
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. C
olum
ns
5 an
d 6
are
res
tric
ted t
o m
en. A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
on p
oole
d s
am
pan
dw
omen
incl
ude
adum
my
for
fem
ales
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
nm
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. E
ach
outc
om
e is
mult
iplie
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. C
olum
ns
5 an
d 6
are
res
tric
ted t
o m
en. A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
on p
oole
d s
am
pan
d w
omen
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.Sta
ndard
erro
rsin
pare
nth
eses
*si
gnific
ant
at
10%
;**
signific
ant
at
5%
;***
signific
ant
at
1%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
nm
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. E
ach
outc
om
e is
mult
iplie
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. C
olum
ns
5 an
d 6
are
res
tric
ted t
o m
en. A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
on p
oole
d s
am
pan
d w
omen
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.Sta
ndard
erro
rsin
pare
nth
eses
*si
gnific
ant
at
10%
;**
signific
ant
at
5%
;***
signific
ant
at
1%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
nm
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. E
ach
outc
om
e is
mult
iplie
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. C
olum
ns
5 an
d 6
are
res
tric
ted t
o m
en. A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
on p
oole
d s
am
pan
d w
omen
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.Sta
ndar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
nm
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. E
ach
outc
om
e is
mult
iplie
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. C
olum
ns
5 an
d 6
are
res
tric
ted t
o m
en. A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
on p
oole
d s
am
pan
d w
omen
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.Sta
ndar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re m
easu
red a
s th
e per
cent
of days
over
lappin
g w
ith R
am
adan d
uri
nm
onth
s pre
cedin
g b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th m
onth
and b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. E
ach
outc
om
e is
mult
iplie
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. C
olum
ns
5 an
d 6
are
res
tric
ted t
o m
en. A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
on p
oole
d s
am
pan
d w
omen
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.Sta
ndar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Tab
le8:
Effec
tsof
Ram
adan
Expos
ure
inQ
uar
ters
Pri
orto
Bir
thon
Var
ious
Outc
omes
US
Tab
le 8
: E
ffec
ts o
f R
amad
an E
xpos
ure
in Q
uar
ters
Pri
or t
o B
irth
on V
ario
us
Outc
omes
, U
Sp
Q,
Pan
elA
:E
ffec
tsre
lati
veto
expos
ure
3qu
arte
rspri
orto
bir
thqu
arte
rP
anel
A: E
ffec
ts r
elat
ive
to e
xpos
ure
3 q
uar
ters
pri
or t
o bir
th q
uar
ter
AQ
uar
ters
Poo
led
1980
Cen
sus
AC
S,2005-2
007
Quar
ters
Poo
led
1980
Cen
sus
AC
S, 2005-2
007
Pri
orto
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
Pri
or t
o(1
)(2
)(3
)(4
)(5
)(6
)(7
)(8
)(9
)(1
0)
(11)
(12)
Bir
thD
isab
ilit
yLes
sH
SM
ale
Log
Ear
n.
Dis
abilit
yLes
sH
SM
ale
Log
Ear
n.
Dis
abilit
yLes
sH
SM
ale
Log
Earn
.B
irth
Dis
abilit
yLes
s H
SM
ale
Log
Ear
n.
Dis
abilit
yLes
s H
SM
ale
Log
Ear
n.
Dis
abilit
yLes
s H
SM
ale
Log E
arn
.**
21.
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752.
673
2.8
72-2
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370.
885
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24
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35
114
31
566
239
10
081
168
02
960
388
00
132
1445
1845
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31.
566
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1.68
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3.88
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45
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6)(0
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(1768)
(2826)
(0082)
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98)
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04)
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96)
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78)
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47)
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99)
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02)
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28)
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68)
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33)
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17)
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()
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ffl
join
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ters
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ual
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%%
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293
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Eff
tl
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ti
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tht
Pan
el B
: E
ffec
ts r
elat
ive
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xpos
ure
in b
irth
quar
ter
and 3
quar
ters
pri
or t
o bir
th q
uar
ter
Qt
Pl
d19
80C
AC
S2005
2007
Pan
el B
: E
ffec
ts r
elat
ive
to e
xpos
ure
in b
irth
quar
ter
and 3
quar
ters
pri
or t
o bir
th q
uar
ter
Quar
ters
Poo
led
1980
Cen
sus
AC
S, 2005-2
007
Quar
ters
Pi
()
()
()
(4)
()
()
(7)
()
()
()
()
()
Poo
led
1980
Cen
sus
AC
S, 2005
2007
Pri
orto
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
Pri
or t
o(1
)(2
)(3
)(4
)(5
)(6
)(7
)(8
)(9
)(1
0)
(11)
(12)
Bi
hD
ibili
LH
SM
lL
ED
ibili
LH
SM
lL
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ibili
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lL
EB
irth
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abilit
yLes
s H
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ale
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isab
ilit
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ale
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isabilit
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s H
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arn
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irth
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abilit
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ale
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n.
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abilit
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s H
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n.
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abilit
yLes
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arn
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08)
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79)
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04)
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05)
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70)
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
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()
()
()
ji
tt
tffi
it
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lt
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int
test
, co
effici
ents
on q
uar
ters
1 t
o 3
equal
to
0jo
int
test
, co
effici
ents
on q
uar
ters
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o 3
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to 0
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00
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00
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00
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Mea
n6
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25%
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24
05%
1595
%62
59%
899
67
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11
46%
54
45%
10
293
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n6.
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05%
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5%62
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67.0
9%
11.
46%
54.
45%
10.
293
N39
568
4105
640
828
2264
812
861
1376
413
659
6572
26707
27292
27169
16076
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568
4105
640
828
2264
812
861
1376
413
659
6572
26707
27292
27169
16076
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
quar
ters
pre
cedin
g (o
r in
cludin
g) b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th q
uar
ter,
bir
th y
ear
and c
ountr
y o
f bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Di
ht
t(d
ib
ilit
lH
Sd
l)
lti
lid
b10
0th
tffi
it
iit
ft
it
All
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
quar
ters
pre
cedin
g (o
r in
cludin
g) b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th q
uar
ter,
bir
th y
ear
and c
ountr
y o
f bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Di
ht
t(d
ib
ilit
lH
Sd
l)
lti
lid
b10
0th
tffi
it
iit
ft
it
All
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
quar
ters
pre
cedin
g (o
r in
cludin
g) b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th q
uar
ter,
bir
th y
ear
and c
ountr
y o
f bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Dic
hot
omou
s ou
tcom
es (
dis
bai
lity
, le
ss H
S a
nd m
ale)
are
mult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. A
ll
regr
essi
ons
are
onpoo
led
sam
ple
sof
men
and
wom
enin
clude
adum
my
for
fem
ales
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
quar
ters
pre
cedin
g (o
r in
cludin
g) b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th q
uar
ter,
bir
th y
ear
and c
ountr
y o
f bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Dic
hot
omou
s ou
tcom
es (
dis
bai
lity
, le
ss H
S a
nd m
ale)
are
mult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. A
ll
regr
essi
ons
are
onpoo
led
sam
ple
sof
men
and
wom
enin
clude
adum
my
for
fem
ales
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
quar
ters
pre
cedin
g (o
r in
cludin
g) b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th q
uar
ter,
bir
th y
ear
and c
ountr
y o
f bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Dic
hot
omou
s ou
tcom
es (
dis
bai
lity
, le
ss H
S a
nd m
ale)
are
mult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. A
ll
regr
essi
ons
are
on p
oole
d s
ample
s of
men
and w
omen
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.Sta
ndar
der
rors
inpar
enth
eses
*sig
nific
ant
at10
%;**
sign
ific
ant
at5%
;**
*si
gnific
ant
at1%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
quar
ters
pre
cedin
g (o
r in
cludin
g) b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th q
uar
ter,
bir
th y
ear
and c
ountr
y o
f bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Dic
hot
omou
s ou
tcom
es (
dis
bai
lity
, le
ss H
S a
nd m
ale)
are
mult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. A
ll
regr
essi
ons
are
on p
oole
d s
ample
s of
men
and w
omen
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.Sta
ndar
der
rors
inpar
enth
eses
*sig
nific
ant
at10
%;**
sign
ific
ant
at5%
;**
*si
gnific
ant
at1%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
quar
ters
pre
cedin
g (o
r in
cludin
g) b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th q
uar
ter,
bir
th y
ear
and c
ountr
y o
f bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Dic
hot
omou
s ou
tcom
es (
dis
bai
lity
, le
ss H
S a
nd m
ale)
are
mult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. A
ll
regr
essi
ons
are
on p
oole
d s
ample
s of
men
and w
omen
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.Sta
ndar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
quar
ters
pre
cedin
g (o
r in
cludin
g) b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th q
uar
ter,
bir
th y
ear
and c
ountr
y o
f bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Dic
hot
omou
s ou
tcom
es (
dis
bai
lity
, le
ss H
S a
nd m
ale)
are
mult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. A
ll
regr
essi
ons
are
on p
oole
d s
ample
s of
men
and w
omen
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.Sta
ndar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
quar
ters
pre
cedin
g (o
r in
cludin
g) b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th q
uar
ter,
bir
th y
ear
and c
ountr
y o
f bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Dic
hot
omou
s ou
tcom
es (
dis
bai
lity
, le
ss H
S a
nd m
ale)
are
mult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. A
ll
regr
essi
ons
are
on p
oole
d s
ample
s of
men
and w
omen
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.Sta
ndar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
quar
ters
pre
cedin
g (o
r in
cludin
g) b
irth
(ra
mpct
). A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
bir
th q
uar
ter,
bir
th y
ear
and c
ountr
y o
f bir
th d
um
mie
s.
Dic
hot
omou
s ou
tcom
es (
dis
bai
lity
, le
ss H
S a
nd m
ale)
are
mult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. A
ll
regr
essi
ons
are
on p
oole
d s
ample
s of
men
and w
omen
incl
ude
a dum
my for
fem
ales
.Sta
ndar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Ramadan Appendix Material
Contents
A Biomedical Studies of Fasting ii
A.1 First Stage Effects of Ramadan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
A.1.1 Caloric Intake and Weight Among Fasting Adults . . . . . . . . . . ii
A.1.2 Is Ramadan Observed by Pregnant Muslims? . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
A.2 Ramadan and Fetal Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv
A.2.1 Pathways from Maternal to Fetal Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv
A.2.2 Empirical Studies of Fetal Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
A.3 Mechanisms of Fetal Programming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
A.4 Ramadan and Perinatal Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
A.4.1 Birth Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
A.4.2 Longer-term Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii
A.5 Nutrition and the Sex Ratio at Birth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii
A.6 Hypotheses: Outcomes and Timing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x
B Data x
B.1 Michigan Natality Microdata . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x
B.2 Uganda Census 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xii
B.3 Iraq Census 1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
B.4 US Census 1980, ACS, 2005-2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
B.5 Other Suitable Datasets? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiv
C Birth Outcomes by Gestation Length xiv
D Distributional Effects on Birth Weight xvi
E Appendix Tables & Figures
Tables A1-A7, Figures A1-A4
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Ramadan Appendix Material
A Biomedical Studies of Fasting
We begin by summarizing evidence on the “first stage” effect of fasting during Ramadan.
That is, what is the existing evidence that Ramadan fasting can have a detectable effect
on health? In Section A.1, we consider studies of caloric intake and weight change during
intermittent fasting and summarize survey data on the prevalence of Ramadan fasting
among pregnant women. Second, we discuss the potential impacts of maternal biochemical
changes caused by fasting (accelerated starvation) on the fetus in Section A.2. Third,
we examine potential pathways by which intermittent fasting could have lasting effects
through “fetal programming” in Section A.3. Fourth, we review the empirical studies that
have explicitly examined the effects of Ramadan on birth and early childhood outcomes
in Section A.4. Fifth, we briefly summarize a separate literature on nutrition and the sex
ratio at birth – which to date has not used Ramadan fasting for identification – in Section
A.5 . Finally, we distill the preceding into research hypotheses which we will apply to our
data in Section A.6.
A.1 First Stage Effects of Ramadan
A.1.1 Caloric Intake and Weight Among Fasting Adults
Ramadan fasting in the adult population (i.e. not conditioning on pregnancy) has been
associated with modest but statistically significant declines in the weight of fasters of
around 1 to 3 kg (Husain et al. [1987]; Ramadan et al. [1999]; Adlouni et al. [1998]; Mansi
[2007]; Takruri [1989]) Reductions in weight are sometimes (but not always) accompanied
by declines in caloric intake and likely depend on dietary customs in specific countries.1
Two studies are of particular relevance. First, in a study of 185 pregnant women,
Arab [2003] found that over a 24 hour period encompassing the Ramadan fast, over 90
percent of the women had a deficiency of over 500 calories relative to the required energy
intake and 68 percent had a deficiency of over 1000 calories. Second, in the only large
scale population-based study we are aware of, Cole [1993] found striking evidence of sharp
weight changes during Ramadan for women in Gambia. The study was notable because it
used fixed effects with 11 years of panel data and controlled for calendar month, calendar
year, and stage of pregnancy (or lactation). Appendnix Figure A1, taken from the study,
shows that relative to the rest of the year, there is an increase in weight during the four
1For example, Husain et al. [1987] found reductions in caloric intake of between 6 percent and 25percent relative to nonfasting conditions among Malaysians. In contrast, Adlouni et al. [1998] found a 20percent increase in calories per day among Moroccans.
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weeks prior to Ramadan and a sharp increase in weight at the very beginning of Ramadan.
This is followed by an abrupt fall in weight of over 1kg (2.2 pounds) during the subsequent
3 weeks of fasting. The figure provides striking visual evidence that daytime fasting during
Ramadan is affecting weight gain.
In any case, as we discuss in section 2.1 of the paper, fasting may induce maternal
biochemical changes and reprogramming of the neuro-endocrine system due to alterations
in the the timing of nutritional intake even if overall caloric intake or weight change is
unaffected.
A.1.2 Is Ramadan Observed by Pregnant Muslims?
Although pregnant women may request an exemption from fasting, they are expected to
“make up” the fasting days missed during pregnancy after delivery and this requirement
may discourage pregnant women from seeking the exemption since they may be the only
member of the household fasting [Hoskins, 1992, Mirghani et al., 2004].2 Mirghani et al.
[2004] noted: “Most opt to fast with their families rather than doing this later”:636.
In addition, some Muslims interpret Islamic Law as requiring pregnant women to fast.
For example, the religious leader of Singapore’s Muslims held that: “a pregnant woman
who is in good health, capable of fasting and does not feel any worry about herself or
to her foetus, is required and expected to fast like any ordinary woman” [Joosoph and
Yu, 2004].3 Furthermore, since fasting during Ramadan is one of the five pillars of Islam
and is a central part of the culture of the Muslim community, many women fear a loss
of connection with the community or would feel guilty about not observing Ramadan
[Robinson and Raisler, 2005].
As far as we are aware, comprehensive data on Ramadan fasting during pregnancy
do not exist. Various surveys of Muslim women suggest that fasting is the norm. For
example, of the 4,343 women delivering in hospitals in Hamadan, Iran in 1999, 71%
reported fasting at least 1 day, “highlighting the great desire of Muslim women to keep
fasting in Ramadan, the holy month”[Arab and Nasrollahi, 2001]. In a study in Singapore,
87% of the 181 muslim women surveyed fasted at least 1 day during pregnancy, and
74% reported completing at least 20 days of fasting [Joosoph and Yu, 2004]. In a study
2There are some differences in interpretation of the Koran among Imams regarding whether pregnantwomen must make up the fasting days later or simply pay alms for the poor, or both. See, for example,http://islam1.org/iar/imam/archives/2006/09/09/fasting the month of ramadaan.php
3Similarly, Arab and Nasrollahi [2001] noted that “According the Islamic teaching pregnant womenare allowed to fast if it is not harmful to them”; faculty at the Kurdistan Medical Science Universityin Iran noted that pregnant and breastfeeding women “who fear for the their well being or that of thefoetus/child” may be exempted from fasting [Shahgheibi et al., 2005].
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conducted in Sana’a City, Yemen, more than 90 percent fasted over 20 days [Makki, 2002].
At the Sorrento Maternity Hospital in Birmingham, England, three quarters of mothers
fasted during Ramadan [Eaton and Wharton, 1982]. In a study conducted in Gambia, 90
percent of pregnant women fasted throughout Ramadan [Prentice et al., 1983]. In the
US, a study of 32 Muslim women in Michigan found that 28 had fasted in at least one
pregnancy and reported that 60-90 percent of women from their communities fast during
pregnancy [Robinson and Raisler, 2005].
In summary, survey data indicate that most but not all women observe the Ramadan
fast during pregnancy. To the extent that pregnant Muslim women do not fast, ITT
estimates are conservative estimates of fasting’s effect. As discussed in Section 6 of the
main paper, fasting observance is likely highest in early pregnancy.
A.2 Ramadan and Fetal Health
A.2.1 Pathways from Maternal to Fetal Health
Does exposure to ketones during “accelerated starvation” (Section 2.1 of the main text)
impair the neural development of the fetus? Controlled studies of mice and rats have
shown that prenatal exposure to ketones result in impaired neurological development.
[Hunter and Sadler, 1987, Moore et al., 1989, Sheehan et al., 1985]. Hunter and Sadler
[1987] reference studies showing ketones “rapidly diffuse from the maternal circulation
across extraembryonic membranes”:263. They also point out that in addition to the
period of neurulation (3rd to 4th week of gestation in humans), the earliest stages of
embryogenesis when the “primitive streak” is observed (the 13th day post-conception),
may be especially susceptible to ketones. Moore et al. [1989] noted that “even a relatively
brief episode of ketosis might perturb the development of the early embryo”:248. They also
emphasize that the effects of ketones were to slow neurological development rather than
to produce a malformation. This may explain why similar studies in human populations
have not (for the most part) found evidence of congenital malformations [ter Braak et al.,
2002]
A related literature has examined the effects of poor metabolic regulation during
pregnancy in mothers with Type 1 diabetes. In this case although the primary concern
is avoiding hyperglycemia (abnormally high blood glucose), this sometimes results in
severe cases of hypocglycemia (abnormally low blood glucose). The latter case may be
instructive for understanding the potential effects of accelerated starvation since blood
glucose drops after a prolonged fast. Some studies of in utero exposure to hypocglycemia
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among diabetic mothers have shown that fetal growth is reduced and that the key period
is between the fourth to sixth weeks of gestation [ter Braak et al., 2002]). It has also
been shown that hypoglycemia among non-diabetic mothers is also associated with lower
birth weight [Scholl et al., 2001]. Studies of diabetic mothers have shown long-term effects
of accelerated starvation on cognitive functioning during childhood (Rizzo et al. [1991],
Langan et al. [1991]).
A.2.2 Empirical Studies of Fetal Health
Fetal health measures have the advantage of permitting panel data techniques to address
selection in to maternal fasting but the disadvantage of not being standardized health
metrics. Several studies of maternal fasting during Ramadan have found adverse effects
on at least two of these fetal health indicators. Mirghani et al. [2004] found evidence of
reduced fetal breathing movements where measures of fetal breathing were taken both
before and after fasting on the same day. The same study, however, found no change
in overall body movements, fetal tone or maternal appreciation.4 Mirghani et al. [2005]
found a significantly fewer heart rate accelerations among pregnant women who were
fasting during Ramadan late in pregnancy compared to controls. This was observed
despite relatively short diurnal fasts (less than 10 hours duration) and the absence of
significant changes in glucose levels. DiPietro et al. [2007] found a strong association
between variation in fetal heart rate in utero and mental and psychomotor development
and language ability during early childhood. Finally, Mirghani et al. [2007] found no effect
of Ramadan fasting on uterine arterial blood flow.
In contrast, studies of hypoglycemia in animals and humans have examined the fetal
heart rate, fetal breathing movements, and limb and body movements in order to identify
impairments to fetal development. A review of these studies in ter Braak et al. [2002] do
not show much affect of moderate hypoglycemia on fetal conditions.
A.3 Mechanisms of Fetal Programming
We now discuss how disruptions to fetal health can have permanent effects. In a review
of epidemiological studies on the fetal origins of adult diseases, Jaddoe and Witteman
[2006] describe two hypotheses related to our study. The first is described as “fetal under-
nutrition.” According to this view, inadequate prenatal nutrition leads to developmental
adaptations that are beneficial for short-term survival but lead to lower birth weight.
4A significant reduction in upper limb movements was noted but there was a concern that this mightbe due to observer bias.
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However, by permanently reprogramming the physiology and metabolism of the fetus,
this ultimately makes the body susceptible to heart disease and diabetes during adult-
hood.5 Although most studies of fetal origins have relied on blunt measures such as birth
weight to proxy for nutritional restriction during pregnancy, a recurring theme in many
studies is that fetal programming may occur even in the absence of birth weight effects.
For example, studies of the Dutch famine have showed that those exposed to the famine
early in gestation had dramatically higher rates of heart disease but did not have lower
birth weight [Painter et al., 2005]. Similarly animal studies have often found evidence
of fetal programming without detecting significant changes in fetal weight. e.g. Nishina
et al. [2004]
A second prominent hypothesis is that nutritional restrictions inhibit the development
of a placental enzyme that is required to convert cortisol into inactive cortisone, thereby
exposing the fetus to excessive amounts of cortisol. It is suggested that exposure to
glucocorticoids such as cortisol in utero leads to a reprogramming of the hypothalamic–
pituitary adrenal axis (HPA) which in turn, could lead to impaired fetal development and
worse health during adulthood.
In controlled animal studies, researchers have linked nutritional restrictions very early
in gestation to an altered neuro-endocrine system, e.g., Nishina et al. [2004]. With respect
to humans, Herrmann et al. [2001] have shown an association between fasts of 13 hours or
longer and higher levels of plasma corticotrophin-releasing hormone (CRH) which could
reflect a reprogramming of the HPA axis. As noted in the main text, Dikensoy et al. [2009]
show that Ramadan fasting is associated with elevated cortisol levels during pregnancy
(relative to pre-pregnancy levels), but not for non-fasting mothers. Kapoor et al. [2006]
describe how the effects of fetal programming of HPA in humans may result in cognitive
impairment; due to the complex feedback mechanisms involved, these effects may not be
evident “until adulthood or early old age”. The authors also emphasize that many of the
long-term effects may be sex-specific.
The existing literature on fetal origins however, has made little use of quasi-experimental
research designs to address potential confounding factors or to identify the underlying
mechanisms. Jaddoe and Witteman [2006] recently concluded: “Thus far, it is still not
known which mechanisms underlie the associations between low birth weight and diseases
in adult life. The causal pathways linking low birth weight to diseases in later life seem
to be complex and may include combined environmental and genetic mechanisms in var-
5Jaddoe and Witteman [2006] note that this view has evolved into a more “general developmen-tal plasticity model in which various fetal and post-natal environmental factors lead to programmingresponses”:93.
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ious periods of life. Well-designed epidemiological studies are necessary to estimate the
population effect size and to identify the underlying mechanisms” Jaddoe and Witteman
[2006, 91].
A.4 Ramadan and Perinatal Health
A.4.1 Birth Outcomes
Existing studies of birth outcomes have relied on comparisons between mothers who re-
ported fasting to those who did not. Kavehmanesh and Abolghasemi [2004] compared 284
births to mothers in Tehran with a “history of fasting during pregnancy” to 255 mothers
who did not fast. Although there were no statistically significant differences with respect
to maternal education or height, pre-pregnancy BMI’s were substantially higher in the
fasting group. For such comparisons, the conditional independence assumption required
for causal inference [Angrist and Pischke, 2009] is tenuous. Shahgheibi et al. [2005] studied
179 newborns for whom Ramadan fell in the third trimester of pregnancy. Among fasters,
birth weight was lower by 33 grams, birth length was lower by about 0.2 centimeters
while head circumference was larger by 0.08 centimeters. Since these differences were not
statistically significant with the small sample used, the authors concluded that fasting
during the third trimester had “no effect” on growth indices. Arab and Nasrollahi [2001]
studied 4,343 pregnancies in the Hamdan province of Iran and concluded that fasting
did not impact birth weight. They did note however, that the incidence of low birth
weight (< 2500 grams) was higher among fasters in the second trimester but that this
was significant only at the 9 percent level.
The largest and perhaps most commonly cited study on the effects of Ramadan on
birth weight conducted a retrospective analysis of 13,351 babies born at full term from
1964-84 in Birmingham, England Cross et al. [1990]. Babies were categorized as Muslim
on the basis of the first three letters of the mother’s surname and were matched to control
groups by age. However, this study did not compare the birthweights of Muslims in
utero during Ramadan to Muslims who were not in utero during Ramadan but instead
compared across groups of Muslims and Non-Muslims. In addition, by design the study
did not look at the potential effects of Ramadan on gestation length. Although Cross et al.
[1990] found no significant effects on mean birth weight, like Arab and Nasrollahi [2001],
they also found a higher incidence of low birth weight among fasters during the second
trimester. Opaneye et al. [1990] found that in Al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia, the incidence of
low birth weight increased during Islamic festivals, Ramadan in particular. 9.9% of the
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415 births were below 2,500 grams during Ramadan, versus 6.3% for the 4,865 births in
non-Ramadan months. Finally, Malhotra et al. [1989] and Mirghani and Hamud [2006]
found no effects on birthweight and APGAR scores, even though they detected substantial
biochemical changes.
A separate literature has found that skipping meals (not associated with Ramadan)
has been associated with preterm delivery. Siega-Riz et al. [2001] studied diets during
the second trimester of pregnancy for over 2000 women in North Carolina and found that
women who did not follow the optimal guidelines of three meals and two snacks a day
were 30 percent more likely to deliver preterm. They suggest that this is consistent with
experimental evidence from animal studies. Herrmann et al. [2001] also reported that
women who fasted for 13 hours or more were three times more likely to deliver preterm.
While most studies have focussed on birth weight, Mirghani and Hamud [2006] consid-
ered a broader range of birth outcomes. Specifically, they compared 168 pregnant fasters
to a control group of 156 non-fasting mothers and found significantly higher rates of ges-
tational diabetes, induced labor, cesarian sections, and admission to the special baby care
unit.
A.4.2 Longer-term Effects
We are aware of just one previous study of on long-term effects of Ramadan. Azizi et al.
[2004] surveyed outcomes among 191 children enrolled in 15 Islamic primary schools in
Iran and their mothers about Ramadan fasting during pregnancy. Approximately half of
the mothers selected for the analysis sample reported fasting. More than 1,600 mothers
returned questionnaires regarding their fasting behaviour during pregnancy. However,
the fraction of this initial sample who fasted during pregnancy is not reported by Az-
izi et al. [2004]. Among fasting mothers, those fasting during the third trimester were
over-sampled. No significant difference in the IQ’s of the children were found by mater-
nal fasting behaviour. As mentioned in the main text, Ewijk [2009] analyzes long-term
Ramadan effects using the Indonesian Family Life Study data. This work was inspired
by ours and generally finds corroborative results.
A.5 Nutrition and the Sex Ratio at Birth
Widely studied in evolutionary biology, the Trivers-Willard hypothesis posits that the
reproductive success of sons is more sensitive to maternal condition than that of daughters
[Trivers and Willard, 1973]. Therefore, parents experiencing better conditions may favor
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male offspring. More generally, the sex ratio at birth and early childhood may proxy for
unobserved health conditions given disproportionate male susceptibility to fetal and infant
mortality [Kraemer, 2000, Mathews and Hamilton, 2005]. One proposed mechanism by
which adjustment to the sex ratio may take place is through the nutritional status of
the mother while pregnant [Cameron, 2004]. Roseboom et al. [2001] found that prenatal
exposure to the Dutch famine of 1944-45 reduced the sex ratio of live births. Similarly,
Almond et al. [2007] found the sex ratio in China was skewed toward females for cohorts
born during the Great Leap Forward Famine. Askling et al. [1999] showed that women
who experience severe morning sickness were much more likely to have girls.
A widely-publicized study by Mathews et al. [2008] has for the first time drawn a link
between maternal nutrition prior to conception and the sex ratio at birth. The authors
collected detailed information on food intake prior to pregnancy, early in pregnancy (14
weeks gestation) and late in pregnancy (28 weeks gestation) in Britain. They found no
differences in the rates of male births arising from differences in nutritional intake either
early or late in pregnancy but found a highly statistically significant positive relationship
between high nutritional scores prior to conception and the birth of male offspring. They
further examined the detailed data on sources of nutrition and found that among 133
food items consumed prior to pregnancy, only breakfast cereals was strongly associated
with infant sex. The authors speculated that the mechanism underlying this connection
is that the skipping of breakfast
“extends the normal period of nocturnal fasting, depresses circulating glucose
levels and may be interpreted by the body as indicative of poor environmental
conditions.”
Mathews et al. [2008] also referenced work by Larson et al. [2001] on in vitro fertiliza-
tion of bovine embryos showing that glucose “enhances the growth and development of
male conceptuses while inhibiting that of females.”
The study by Mathews et al. [2008] was observational and did not explore the source
of dietary differences across mothers, nor did it control for some other factors known to
influence the sex ratio (e.g., partnership status at the time of conception [Norberg, 2004]).
Short of a controlled experiment, the research design utilized here has the advantage of
leveraging plausibly exogenous differences in maternal fasting.
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A.6 Hypotheses: Outcomes and Timing
In this section, we distill findings from the biomedical literature most relevant to our
Ramadan analysis. Appendix Table A1 summarizes the set of health outcomes we might
expect to be affected by fasting (column 1), notes the mechanism (column 2), and lists
the months of prenatal exposure that have been found or suggested to be particularly
important (column 3). These hypotheses are based on either a clearly defined pathway
linking fasting to a particular outcome, or an empirical result that has been established,
irrespective of whether there is an explicit mechanism described in the study. In many of
the studies, the period of in utero exposure was selected by design and therefore does not
exclude effects in other periods.
In the case of birthweight, we describe four mechanisms through which fasting might
operate and one empirical finding based on the Dutch famine. Two of the birthweight
mechanisms are tightly linked to exposures occurring in early pregnancy. For several
outcomes there are no clear hypotheses concerning timing that we could discern; a rea-
sonable hypothesis would be to jointly test the effects of Ramadan exposure during all
gestation months.
With respect to longer-term effects, in virtually all cases exposure to fasting during
early pregnancy is the predominant hypothesis. For cognitive function, there are several
arguably distinct channels through which prenatal fasting might be detrimental.
B Data
B.1 Michigan Natality Microdata
Our ancestry-based proxy for Muslim status is coded as follows. For births from 1989
to 1992, we include mothers who report their ancestry as “Arab/Middle Eastern” in
the ITT (whose pregnancies also overlap with a Ramadan). Starting in 1993, several
specific country codes for ancestry are reported. From 1993 to 2006 our ITT group
includes mothers who report ancestry as: Arab/Middle Eastern, Arab/North African,
Iran, Afghanistan, Mauritania, Somalia, Turkey or Western Sahara. Overall, 96% of our
treatment group report their ancestry as Arab/Middle Eastern, hence we refer to the
group as Arabs.
We also implement several other sample selection rules to minimize measurement
error and misclassification of Muslims into the control group. We dropped births with no
reported ancestry or where the ancestry might possibly include parents who are practicing
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Muslims (e.g. Southeastern Asians). We also dropped non-Arab Blacks to avoid the
possibility that there might be “Black Muslims” in our sample. We also dropped twin
births and restricted the sample to births among mothers between the ages of 14 and 45.
The summary statistics are shown in Appendix Table A2. Arab mothers reported a
year less education than non-Arab mothers on average, and are substantially more likely
to receive Medicaid (46% versus 27%). Arab families are also larger (average parity is 18%
higher for Arabs). Despite these differences in socioeconomic measures, birth outcomes
are more similar. Rates of low birth weight and prematurity are actually slightly lower for
Arabs than for non-Arabs. The geographic distribution of Arabs by zipcode in Michigan
is shown in Appendix Figure A2. Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, Arabs do not appear
noticeably more concentrated around the Dearborn and Detroit area than non-Arabs
(Panel A).
The key variables for assigning in utero Ramadan exposure are birth date and gestation
length. Michigan natality data include exact date of birth and a self-reported date of last
menstrual period (LMP) for about 70 percent of the sample. The problem of selective
reporting of LMP based on socioeconomic status is well known [Hediger et al., 1999].
There is also a field containing the physician’s estimate of gestation length, but we do not
know how it is calculated or when during gestation.6 We follow related epidemiological
studies that utilize a simple algorithm for coding gestation (e.g., Siega-Riz et al. [2001],
Herrmann et al. [2001]): gestation based on LMP is used except if it is missing or if
it differs with physician estimated gestation by more than 14 days, in which case the
physician estimated measure is substituted.
Appendix Figure A3 provides a hypothetical example to illustrate how our daily mea-
sures of Ramadan exposure are calculated. In 1989, Ramadan began on April 7th and
ended on May 6th. For someone who was conceived on April 6th, his or her entire first
month of gestation would overlap with Ramadan, i.e. exppct=1. Since during this Ra-
madan, daylight hours averaged about 13.7 hours per day, compared to 15.2 during the
summer solstice, the hours exposure measure (exphrspct) peaks at about 0.9.
6A key concern is that this could be endogenous to Ramadan exposure. For example, if Ramadanaffects fetal size and if physician estimates of LMP are based on measures of fetal size, this could lead tomis-measurement of the timing of Ramadan exposure. In addition, this measure might not be calculateduniformly and may depend on the timing of the first doctor visit and could therefore, be correlated withmother’s socioeconomic status.
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B.2 Uganda Census 2002
The Uganda Census contains roughly 2.5 million records (10% sample). Our main anal-
ysis sample includes men and women ages 20 to 80. Individuals whose birth month or
birth year were imputed are dropped.7 For each outcome measure, we recoded those with
imputed data to missing. The disability question in the Uganda survey instrument asks:
“Does (name) have any difficulty in moving, seeing, hearing, speaking difficulty, mental
or learning difficulty, which has lasted or is expected to last 6 months or more?” The
following specific disabilities are recorded in the dataset: blind or vision impaired, deaf
or hearing impaired, mute, disability affecting lower extremities, disability affecting up-
per extremities, mental/learning disabilities and psychological disabilities. The original
unharmonized variables label the last two variables “mental retardation” and “mental
illness” while IPUMS-I relabelled them as “mental” and “psychological”. Our own read-
ing of the instructions to the Uganda Census enumerators suggests that this relabelling
was indeed appropriate. The former measure appears to identify those with “mental or
learning disabilities” while the latter identifies those exhibiting “strange behaviors”. A
subsequent question asks about the origin of the reported disability. The responses are
coded into the following categories: congenital, disease, accident, aging, war injury, other
or multiple causes.
The summary statistics are reported in Appendix Table A3. In contrast to Michigan,
Uganda Muslims tend to have higher average SES. Muslims are less likley to be illiterate
than non-Muslims (30% versus 36%) and completed more schooling. Disability rates for
Muslims are also lower – 3.8% versus 5.2% for non-Muslims. Both Muslims and non-
Muslims share a strong seasonality in the frequency of births by month. For both groups,
birth in June was more than 50% more likely than birth in December. The frequency
distribution across Ramadan ITT gestation months is much more uniform, and similar
between Muslims and non-Muslims.
ITT assignment is determined by the reported birth month. We found age heaping:
spikes in the number of respondents reporting of ages ending in zeroes (e.g. 20, 30,
40), suggesting measurement error. We therefore excluded records reporting these round-
number ages.
7The IPUMS-I “unharmonized” variables contain imputation flags. We allowed records with “logicalimputations” but dropped records imputed by “hot-deck”.
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B.3 Iraq Census 1997
The Iraq Census is also a 10 percent sample. We dropped individuals who reported ages
ending in seven because of heaping at those ages. We also drop those reporting birth
months of January and July because of heaping at those months. We also drop those
born before 1958 due to extremely high levels of missing values for month of birth. This
leaves us with a sample of over 250,000 individuals between the ages of 20 and 39 in 1997.
The reduced number of birth cohorts can potentially affect our ability to separate the
effects of Ramadan exposure from season of birth trends for outcomes that are highly
seasonal. We found school related outcomes to be highly seasonal in Iraq. We suspect
that this is due to institutional factors that determine school starting or leaving ages at
particular dates of the calendar year. We find, for example, that mean schooling levels were
about 12 percent higher for those born between September and December than for those
born between February and April. Because of the timing of Ramadan among the 1958 to
1977 cohorts, those born between February through April had no exposure to Ramadan
in the first month of pregnancy, while those born between September and December had
mean exposure of about 0.11 thereby inducing a highly positve correlation between early
Ramadan exposure and schooling. In contrast, we find no evidence of strong season of
birth patterns in our main outcomes of interest. For example, mean disability rates are
only about 1.2 percent lower for those born in September through December compared
to those born between February and April with no discernible monthly pattern.
B.4 US Census 1980, ACS, 2005-2007
We assigned our Muslim proxy to respondents born in a country which currently has at
least 80 percent Muslims.8 We used the following 38 countries: Saudi Arabia, Soma-
lia, Afghanistan, Maldives, Western Sahara, Turkey, Iran, Algeria, Mauritania, Yemen,
Tunisia, Oman, Comoros, Djibouti, Morocco, Pakistan, Libya, Iraq, Iraq/Saudi Arabia,
Tajikistan, Jordan, Qatar, Senegal, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Mali, Niger, Gambia, Uzbekistan,
Turkmenistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Syria, Guinea, Kuwait, Bahrain, West Bank and
Gaza. We excluded individuals who reported languages that would suggest they were
non-Muslims.9 We also dropped Iranian immigrants living in California who are predom-
inantly Jewish.
8We took estimates derived from US State Departments’s International Religious Freedom Report,the CIA World Factbook and Adherents.com as reported on the following Wikipedia URL:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam by country9For example, some individuals born in Indonesia may report “Dutch” as their language.
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Ramadan Appendix Material
In order to roughly gauge the extent of classification error, we can consider data
from the 2001 Canada Census, which includes measures both of religion and country of
birth. 67% of Canadian immigrants born in our predominantly-Muslim countries reported
Muslim as their religion.10 If the immigration patterns were assumed to be identical, then
this would imply that roughly one in three of our sample of Census sample will not observe
the Ramadan fast because they are not Muslim. Our control sample was restricted to
whites born in the United States who did not report ancestries outside of the US or
Western Europe. We chose not to use reported ancestry for assigning the Muslim proxy
because of high rates of underreporting and the fact that it would combine first and second
generation immigrants. We might suspect that that Ramadan observance is higher for
first generation immigrants.
For earnings we use the CPI to convert values into 1997 dollars and restrict the sample
to those aged 20 to 60 years.
B.5 Other Suitable Datasets?
The Uganda and Iraq Census microdata were obtained from the Integrated Public Use
Microdata Series - International (IPUMS-I). Other potentially relevant IPUMS-I samples
are those for Egypt, Jordan, and Malaysia. Each has a large population of Muslims with
Census data that purportedly include birth month.11 Religion is not reported for Egypt
and Jordan, but like Iraq, are overwhelmingly Muslim. However, in Egypt 85% of the
sample is missing birth month. 40% are missing birth month in Malaysia, and only .5%
of adults report a work disability. In Jordan’s data, birth year and place of birth are
missing.
In the US, month of birth is not reported in the decennial Census. While the National
Health Interview Survey (NHIS) reports birth month, it does not disclose religion, detailed
ethnicity, or country of birth.
C Birth Outcomes by Gestation Length
As noted in the main text, variation in gestation length can generate compositional effects
for pregnancies exposed to Ramadan late in gestation. For example, pregnancies with
exposure to Ramadan in month 9 of pregnancy are exclusively full-term, but ITT estimates
10We thank Kevin Milligan (UBC) for providing these estimates.11Birth month and religion are available in the census of South Africa (unharmonized variables in
IPUMS-I), but South Africa’s Muslim population is relatively small (roughly 1.5% of the population).
xiv
Ramadan Appendix Material
of the month 9 effect include premature births where Ramadan fell after delivery. Even
for earlier months of pregnancy, the relationship to the ITT may differ depending on
gestation length. Finally, gestation itself may respond to the ITT.
In Appendix Table A4, we vary the samples used to estimate birthweight effects based
on the length of gestation. In column (1) we start with a sample of all births with gestation
length 25 weeks to 42 weeks allowing us to include preterm births. The coefficients for
months 1 to 5 are interpretable for all sample members.12 We then progressively tighten
the sample restriction by increasing the lower bound on gestation age producing samples
of length 31-42 weeks in column (2), 35-42 weeks in column (3) and 39-42 weeks in
column (4). This gradually increases the number of exposure month coefficients that can
be interpreted. Interestingly, this does not appear to have any pronounced effects on the
results. With the larger samples that include some preterm births, exposure during the
sixth months is significant at the 10 percent level in two of the three specifications. The
gestation samples that include pre-term births now provide additional evidence (on top
of the “no gestation” sample results from Table 1 of the main text), that the coefficients
are jointly different from zero with significance levels ranging from 6.1 percent to 12.4
percent.
In column (5) we attempt to address the fact that out ITT estimates may be attenuated
by the inclusion of Chaldeans, who are not Muslim but might self identify as Arab.
Specifically we use the sample of full-term births and drop mothers whose zipcode of
residence has a ratio of Chaldeans to Arabs of greater than 0.5 according to the 2000
Census. This drops our sample by more than 25 percent and raises the standard errors
considerably. However, there is some suggestive evidence of a stronger ITT effect. The
most dramatic change is for exposure in the 7th month of gestation where we now see
an effect: nearly a 60 gram drop in birthweight that is significant at the 1 percent level.
The p-value on the F -test of joint significance also falls to 0.071 from 0.277 in column
(4). In other specifications we have not always found much of a difference between the
overall sample and the sample that drops heavily Chaldean zipcodes. This may be due to
the large geographic overlap in the concentrations of Arabs and Chaldeans zipcodes and
the relatively coarse approach dictated by the available data. In this sub-sample, we are
arguably, estimating the effects of Ramadan exposure among Arabs in less concentrated
areas where observance rates may be lower.
In columns (6) through (9) we estimate the effects of in utero Ramadan exposure on
12For example, exposure in months 6 to 9 will include the effects of Ramadan exposure in the postnatalperiod for the small subsample of those with only 25 weeks gestation.
xv
Ramadan Appendix Material
gestation weeks using the same approach on the full sample of Arabs. Among those with
25-42 weeks gestation, we estimate that Ramadan exposure during the second and fifth
months of pregnancy reduces gestational age by a little more than 0.1 weeks or by roughly
a day (p < 0.10). However, these are the only months where exposure is statistically
significant and we cannot reject that the first five gestation months jointly, have no effect.
The effect from month 5 exposure weakens a bit as the sample is gradually restricted.
Interestingly, column (9) shows that when the sample is confined to only full term births,
four gestation months (2, 3, 5 and 8) are significant at at least the 10 percent level.
Finally, in column (10) with the more restricted sample of non-Chaldean zipcodes we find
a highly significant effect from second month exposure. In order to assess what portion
of the birthweight effect might be attributed to decreased gestation, we ran a separate
regression of birthweight on gestation for the sample of non-Arab mothers and found that
each additional week of gestation adds about 165 grams. This suggests that a reduction
in gestation of 0.1 weeks is associated with a 16 gram reduction in birthweight. From this
rough exercise, it appears that less than half of the overall reduction in birthweight of
around 40 grams that we typically estimate in Tables 1 and Appendix Table A4 is due to
reduced gestation as opposed intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). For those exposed
in the first month of pregnancy, it appears that virtually all of the birthweight reduction
is due to IUGR.
D Distributional Effects on Birth Weight
In Figure A4 we show which parts of the birthweight distribution are affected by early
exposure to Ramadan fasting. We plot kernal densities comparing the birthweight distri-
bution of those Arabs with no in utero exposure to those who had a significant exposure
to Ramadan in the first month of gestation (exphrspct1 > 0.5).13 Most of the effect is
in the middle part of the distribution. Specifically, those with first month exposure to
Ramadan are more likely to have birthweight between 2800 and 3200 grams and less likely
to have birthweight between 3250 and 3900 grams.14 This suggests that little of the effect
is at the low end of the distribution among those classified as “low birthweight” (<2500
grams).
13We also ran linear probability regressions using indicator variables of being in specific intervals ofthe birthweight distribution (e.g. 300-600 grams, 600-900 grams etc.) as an outcome including our othercontrols and obtained very similar results.
14There are also small differences between the samples in the interval from 2100 grams to 2700 grams,and for birthweight greater than 4500 grams.
xvi
Ramadan Appendix Material
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xx
Tab
leA
1:Sum
mar
yof
Hypot
hes
esC
once
rnin
gO
utc
omes
Affec
ted
by
Fas
ting
and
Tim
ing
InU
tero
Tab
le A
1: S
um
mar
y o
f H
ypot
hes
es C
once
rnin
g O
utc
omes
Affec
ted b
y F
asti
ng
and T
imin
g In
Ute
roy
yp
gy
gg
Outc
ome
Des
crip
tion
ofM
echan
ism
(stu
die
s)G
esta
tion
month
Outc
ome
Des
crip
tion
of M
echan
ism
(st
udie
s)G
esta
tion m
onth
Bir
thO
utc
omes
Bir
th O
utc
omes
Bir
thw
eigh
tD
irec
tef
fect
oflo
wblo
odgl
uco
se(S
chol
let
al20
01)
6to
7B
irth
wei
ght
Dir
ect
effe
ct o
f lo
w b
lood
glu
cose
(Sch
oll et
al,
2001
)6
to 7
gg
()
Bir
thw
eigh
tE
xpos
ure
toket
ones
anim
alst
udie
s(H
unte
r19
87;M
oore
1989
)1
Bir
thw
eigh
tE
xpos
ure
to k
eton
es, an
imal
stu
die
s (H
unte
r, 1
987;
Moo
re, 19
89)
1(
)B
irth
wei
ght
HP
Aax
is(v
ario
us
studie
s)1
to2
Bir
thw
eigh
tH
PA
axis
(var
ious
studie
s)1
to 2
Bir
thw
eigh
tLow
bir
thw
eigh
tdue
tosh
orte
rge
stat
ion
(Sie
ga-R
izet
al20
01)
5to
7B
irth
wei
ght
Low
bir
thw
eigh
t due
to s
hor
ter
gest
atio
n (
Sie
ga-R
iz e
t al
, 20
01)
5 to
7(
)B
irth
wei
ght
Em
pir
ical
resu
lt--
Dutc
hFam
ine
(Pai
nte
ret
al20
05)
7to
9B
irth
wei
ght
Em
pir
ical
res
ult
--D
utc
h F
amin
e (P
ainte
r et
al 20
05)
7 to
9(C
A)
Low
Bir
thW
eigh
tE
mpir
ical
resu
lt(C
ross
etal
1990
;A
rab
and
Nas
rollah
i,20
01)
4to
6Low
Bir
th W
eigh
tE
mpir
ical
res
ult
(C
ross
et
al 1
990;
Ara
b a
nd N
asro
llah
i, 2
001)
4 to
6G
iF
ii
di
hhi
hP
lC
RH
(Si
Ri
l20
01)
57
Ges
tati
onFas
ting
asso
ciat
edw
ith
hig
hP
lasm
aC
RH
(Sie
ga-R
izet
al,20
01)
5to
7G
esta
tion
Fas
ting
asso
ciat
ed w
ith h
igh P
lasm
a C
RH
(Sie
ga-R
iz e
t al
, 20
01)
5 to
7N
ICU
ii
ll
(Mi
hi
dH
d20
06)
8N
ICU
empir
ical
res
ult
(M
irghan
i an
d H
amud, 20
06)
8N
ICU
empir
ical
res
ult
(M
irgh
ani an
d H
amud, 20
06)
8C
tii
il
lt(M
ih
id
Hd
2006
)8
C-s
ecti
onem
pir
ical
res
ult
(M
irghan
i an
d H
amud, 20
06)
8C
sect
ion
empir
ical
res
ult
(M
irgh
ani an
d H
amud, 20
06)
8I
dd
Lb
ii
llt
(Mi
hi
dH
d20
06)
8In
duce
d L
abor
empir
ical
res
ult
(M
irghan
i an
d H
amud, 20
06)
8In
duce
d L
abor
empir
ical
res
ult
(M
irgh
ani an
d H
amud, 20
06)
8S
Rti
Eff
tfl
li
il
lt(M
tth
tl
2008
)0
Sex
Rat
ioE
ffec
t of
low
glu
cose
, em
pir
ical
res
ult
(M
atth
ews
et a
l, 2
008)
0Sex
Rat
ioE
ffec
t of
low
glu
cose
, em
pir
ical
res
ult
(M
atth
ews
et a
l, 2
008)
0
Lg
TO
tLon
g-T
erm
Outc
omes
Lon
gT
erm
Outc
omes
Dia
bet
esFet
alnutr
itio
n(v
ario
us
studie
s)1
to3
Dia
bet
esFet
al nutr
itio
n (
var
ious
studie
s)1
to 3
()
Hea
rtD
isea
seFet
alnutr
itio
n(v
ario
us
studie
s)1
to6
Hea
rt D
isea
seFet
al nutr
itio
n (
var
ious
studie
s)1
to 6
()
Cog
nit
ive
Funct
ion
Expos
ure
toket
ones
anim
alst
udie
s(H
unte
r19
87;M
oore
1989
)1
Cog
nit
ive
Funct
ion
Expos
ure
to
ket
ones
, an
imal
stu
die
s (H
unte
r, 1
987; M
oore
, 19
89)
1g
p,
(,
;,
)C
ognit
ive
Funct
ion
Low
blo
odgl
uco
se(R
izzo
etal
1991
)1
to3
Cog
nit
ive
Funct
ion
Low
blo
od g
luco
se (
Riz
zo e
t al
, 19
91)
1 to
3g
g(
,)
Cog
nit
ive
Funct
ion
HP
Aax
is(K
apoo
ret
al20
06)
1to
2C
ognit
ive
Funct
ion
HP
A a
xis
(K
apoo
r et
al, 2
006)
1 to
2g
(p
,)
Cog
nit
ive
Funct
ion
Fet
alH
eart
Rat
e(M
irgh
ani
2005
)7
to9
Cog
nit
ive
Funct
ion
Fet
al H
eart
Rat
e (M
irgh
ani, 2
005)
7 to
9(
)A
dult
Sex
Rat
ioH
PA
axis
(Kap
oor
etal
2006
)1
to2
Adult
Sex
Rat
ioH
PA
axis
(K
apoo
r et
al, 2
006)
1 to
2(
)
Not
es:
This
table
isbas
edon
are
vie
wof
sele
cted
studie
san
ddoe
snot
incl
ude
allre
levan
tst
udie
sin
the
med
ical
Not
es:
This
tab
le is
bas
ed o
n a
rev
iew
of s
elec
ted s
tudie
s an
d doe
s n
ot incl
ude
all re
levan
t st
udie
s in
the
med
ical
lite
ratu
re. S
tudie
s in
clude
bot
h h
um
an a
nd a
nim
al s
tudie
s. In
man
y o
f th
e st
udie
s, t
he
per
iod o
f in
ute
ro e
xpos
ure
was
N
otes
: T
his
tab
le is
bas
ed o
n a
rev
iew
of s
elec
ted s
tudie
s an
d doe
s n
ot incl
ude
all re
levan
t st
udie
s in
the
med
ical
lite
ratu
re. S
tudie
s in
clude
bot
h h
um
an a
nd a
nim
al s
tudie
s. In
man
y o
f th
e st
udie
s, t
he
per
iod o
f in
ute
ro e
xpos
ure
was
N
otes
: T
his
tab
le is
bas
ed o
n a
rev
iew
of s
elec
ted s
tudie
s an
d doe
s n
ot incl
ude
all re
levan
t st
udie
s in
the
med
ical
lite
ratu
re. S
tudie
s in
clude
bot
h h
um
an a
nd a
nim
al s
tudie
s. In
man
y o
f th
e st
udie
s, t
he
per
iod o
f in
ute
ro e
xpos
ure
was
se
lect
ed b
y d
esig
n a
nd t
her
efor
e th
e fa
ct t
hat
an e
ffec
t w
as fou
nd in t
he
chos
en g
esta
tion
per
iod d
oes
not
rule
out
pos
sible
Not
es:
This
tab
le is
bas
ed o
n a
rev
iew
of s
elec
ted s
tudie
s an
d doe
s n
ot incl
ude
all re
levan
t st
udie
s in
the
med
ical
lite
ratu
re. S
tudie
s in
clude
bot
h h
um
an a
nd a
nim
al s
tudie
s. In
man
y o
f th
e st
udie
s, t
he
per
iod o
f in
ute
ro e
xpos
ure
was
se
lect
ed b
y d
esig
n a
nd t
her
efor
e th
e fa
ct t
hat
an e
ffec
t w
as fou
nd in t
he
chos
en g
esta
tion
per
iod d
oes
not
rule
out
pos
sible
Not
es:
This
tab
le is
bas
ed o
n a
rev
iew
of s
elec
ted s
tudie
s an
d doe
s n
ot incl
ude
all re
levan
t st
udie
s in
the
med
ical
lite
ratu
re. S
tudie
s in
clude
bot
h h
um
an a
nd a
nim
al s
tudie
s. In
man
y o
f th
e st
udie
s, t
he
per
iod o
f in
ute
ro e
xpos
ure
was
se
lect
ed b
y d
esig
n a
nd t
her
efor
e th
e fa
ct t
hat
an e
ffec
t w
as fou
nd in t
he
chos
en g
esta
tion
per
iod d
oes
not
rule
out
pos
sible
ef
fect
s in
oth
er p
erio
ds.
Not
es:
This
tab
le is
bas
ed o
n a
rev
iew
of s
elec
ted s
tudie
s an
d doe
s n
ot incl
ude
all re
levan
t st
udie
s in
the
med
ical
lite
ratu
re. S
tudie
s in
clude
bot
h h
um
an a
nd a
nim
al s
tudie
s. In
man
y o
f th
e st
udie
s, t
he
per
iod o
f in
ute
ro e
xpos
ure
was
se
lect
ed b
y d
esig
n a
nd t
her
efor
e th
e fa
ct t
hat
an e
ffec
t w
as fou
nd in t
he
chos
en g
esta
tion
per
iod d
oes
not
rule
out
pos
sible
ef
fect
s in
oth
er p
erio
ds.
Not
es:
This
tab
le is
bas
ed o
n a
rev
iew
of s
elec
ted s
tudie
s an
d doe
s n
ot incl
ude
all re
levan
t st
udie
s in
the
med
ical
lite
ratu
re. S
tudie
s in
clude
bot
h h
um
an a
nd a
nim
al s
tudie
s. In
man
y o
f th
e st
udie
s, t
he
per
iod o
f in
ute
ro e
xpos
ure
was
se
lect
ed b
y d
esig
n a
nd t
her
efor
e th
e fa
ct t
hat
an e
ffec
t w
as fou
nd in t
he
chos
en g
esta
tion
per
iod d
oes
not
rule
out
pos
sible
ef
fect
s in
oth
er p
erio
ds.
Table A2: Summary Statistics for Michigan Natality Data, 1989-2006
mean s.d. N mean s.d. N
Mother’s Age 27.54 5.72 46979 27.41 5.73 1638059
Mother’s Education 12.03 3.55 45584 13.18 2.37 1625226
Father’s Age 33.81 6.48 45588 30.21 6.13 1462349
Father’s Education 12.92 3.33 43931 13.40 2.39 1428050
Male Child 0.52 0.50 46983 0.51 0.50 1638213
Tobacco 0.04 0.19 46203 0.19 0.39 1611440
Alcohol 0.00 0.04 46170 0.02 0.12 1608527
Maternal Weight Gain 29.73 12.70 42216 31.04 13.03 1520595
No Prenatal Care 0.01 0.10 45068 0.01 0.08 1607940
Prenat. Care Begins 1st Trim. 0.86 0.34 45068 0.87 0.34 1607940
Prenat. Care Begins 2nd Trim. 0.10 0.29 45068 0.11 0.31 1607940
Prenat. Care Begins 3rd Trim. 0.03 0.17 45068 0.02 0.13 1607940
Medicaid 0.46 0.50 46315 0.27 0.45 1616231
Fraction Arab, Zipcode 0.21 0.25 46369 0.01 0.03 1612481
Birthweight 3325.08 513.65 46896 3427.71 565.23 1635183
Low Birthweight 0.04 0.21 46988 0.05 0.21 1638244
Infant Death 0.01 0.07 46988 0.01 0.08 1638244
Parity 1.64 1.74 46592 1.39 1.49 1628783
Preterm 0.06 0.23 46868 0.07 0.25 1633654
Gestation (author’s calc.) 39.27 1.72 46868 39.29 1.85 1633654
Apgar 5 minute 8.94 0.56 46902 8.94 0.67 1632994
NICU 0.03 0.17 46915 0.04 0.19 1634113
Complication 0.25 0.43 46188 0.28 0.45 1618589
Abnormal Condition 0.06 0.24 46012 0.07 0.25 1611065
Medical Risk 0.20 0.40 46169 0.23 0.42 1618107Medical Risk Diabetes 0.03 0.16 46169 0.03 0.17 1618107
Born January 0.077 0.27 46988 0.078 0.27 1638244
Born February 0.074 0.26 46988 0.077 0.27 1638244
Born March 0.083 0.28 46988 0.087 0.28 1638244
Born April 0.079 0.27 46988 0.084 0.28 1638244
Born May 0.084 0.28 46988 0.088 0.28 1638244
Born June 0.087 0.28 46988 0.086 0.28 1638244
Born July 0.089 0.29 46988 0.089 0.28 1638244
Born August 0.091 0.29 46988 0.088 0.28 1638244
Born September 0.087 0.28 46988 0.085 0.28 1638244
Born October 0.084 0.28 46988 0.083 0.28 1638244
Born November 0.081 0.27 46988 0.076 0.27 1638244
Born December 0.083 0.28 46988 0.078 0.27 1638244
Mo. 1, Ram Hrs Exposure 0.056 0.15 46868 0.056 0.15 1633654
Mo. 2, Ram Hrs Exposure 0.059 0.15 46868 0.058 0.16 1633654
Mo. 3, Ram Hrs Exposure 0.058 0.15 46868 0.059 0.16 1633654
Mo. 4, Ram Hrs Exposure 0.059 0.15 46868 0.060 0.16 1633654
Mo. 5, Ram Hrs Exposure 0.057 0.15 46868 0.060 0.16 1633654
Mo. 6, Ram Hrs Exposure 0.056 0.15 46868 0.060 0.16 1633654
Mo. 7, Ram Hrs Exposure 0.056 0.15 46868 0.061 0.16 1633648
Mo. 8, Ram Hrs Exposure 0.057 0.15 46865 0.061 0.16 1633617
Mo. 9, Ram Hrs Exposure 0.059 0.16 46861 0.060 0.16 1633475
Arab Non-Arab
Table A3: Summary Statistics for Uganda Census Sample
mean s.d. N mean s.d. Nfemale 0.494 0.500 81197 0.498 0.500 643300age 34.546 12.675 81197 36.697 13.907 643300illiterate 0.304 0.460 78990 0.356 0.479 626473years of schooling 6.944 3.269 60117 6.797 3.599 449968no schooling 0.247 0.431 80142 0.290 0.454 635282employed 0.660 0.474 74348 0.631 0.483 581842elementary occupation 0.042 0.200 46284 0.042 0.200 347248home ownership (males)# of wives (males)
disability 0.0380 0.191 80924 0.0521 0.222 640825blind/vision impaired 0.0106 0.102 80922 0.0149 0.121 640789deaf/hearing impaired 0.0038 0.062 80923 0.0061 0.078 640781mute/speech impaired 0.0009 0.030 80921 0.0015 0.038 640780lower extremities 0.0125 0.111 80921 0.0161 0.126 640794upper extremities 0.0039 0.062 80921 0.0056 0.075 640779mental/learning 0.0014 0.037 80921 0.0017 0.041 640777psychological 0.0014 0.038 80921 0.0020 0.045 640776epilepsy 0.0005 0.023 80921 0.0009 0.031 640777rheumatism 0.0009 0.030 80921 0.0016 0.039 640776
congen 0.0050 0.070 80921 0.0058 0.076 640778disease 0.0203 0.141 80924 0.0283 0.166 640803accident 0.0056 0.074 80921 0.0079 0.088 640782occupational injury 0.0053 0.072 80921 0.0074 0.086 640786war�injury 0.0007 0.027 80921 0.0013 0.036 640777aging 0.0053 0.072 80921 0.0074 0.086 640786
Born January 0.105 0.306 81197 0.096 0.294 643300Born February 0.076 0.265 81197 0.075 0.263 643300Born March 0.072 0.258 81197 0.072 0.259 643300Born April 0.110 0.313 81197 0.106 0.308 643300Born May 0.070 0.256 81197 0.070 0.256 643300Born June 0.102 0.302 81197 0.105 0.307 643300Born July 0.094 0.292 81197 0.098 0.298 643300Born August 0.079 0.269 81197 0.083 0.275 643300Born September 0.079 0.269 81197 0.081 0.272 643300Born October 0.078 0.268 81197 0.077 0.267 643300Born November 0.069 0.253 81197 0.069 0.253 643300Born December 0.067 0.250 81197 0.068 0.251 643300
rampct1 0.081 0.215 81197 0.081 0.216 643300rampct2 0.079 0.214 81197 0.079 0.215 643300rampct3 0.077 0.211 81197 0.078 0.212 643300rampct4 0.084 0.219 81197 0.083 0.218 643300rampct5 0.086 0.223 81197 0.085 0.221 643300rampct6 0.084 0.217 81197 0.083 0.217 643300rampct7 0.087 0.222 81197 0.085 0.221 643300rampct8 0.090 0.226 81197 0.089 0.226 643300rampct9 0.087 0.221 81197 0.087 0.221 643300
Muslim Non-Muslim
Tab
leA
4:E
ffec
tsof
Ram
adan
Expos
ure
onB
irth
wei
ght
and
Ges
tati
onby
Var
yin
gG
esta
tion
Mic
hig
anA
rabs
Tab
le A
4: E
ffec
ts o
f R
amad
an E
xpos
ure
on B
irth
wei
ght
and G
esta
tion
, by V
aryin
g G
esta
tion
, M
ichig
an A
rabs
Dd
ibl
iB
ih
ih
Dd
ibl
iW
kfG
iD
epen
den
t va
riab
le is
Bir
thw
eigh
tD
epen
den
t va
riab
le is
Wee
ks o
f G
esta
tion
Gi
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
Dep
enden
t va
riab
le is
Bir
thw
eigh
tD
epen
den
t va
riab
le is
Wee
ks o
f G
esta
tion
Ges
tati
on(1
)(2
)(3
)(4
)(5
)(6
)(7
)(8
)(9
)(1
0)G
esta
tion
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
Mth
2542
3142
3542
3942
NC
hld
2542
3142
3542
3942
NC
hld
Mon
th25
-42
31-4
235
-42
39-4
2N
on-C
hal
dea
n25
-42
31-4
235
-42
39-4
2N
on-C
hal
dea
nM
onth
2542
3142
3542
3942
Non
Chal
dea
n25
4231
4235
4239
42N
onC
hal
dea
nk
kk
k39
42k
kk
kk
3942
kex
pos
ure
wee
ks
wee
ks
wee
ks
wee
ks
39-4
2 w
ks
wee
ks
wee
ks
wee
ks
wee
ks
39-4
2 w
ks
expos
ure
wee
ks
wee
ks
wee
ks
wee
ks
3942
wks
wee
ks
wee
ks
wee
ks
wee
ks
3942
wks
131
7*
324
*41
6**
406
**35
40
020
030
060
010
011
-31.
7*
-32.
4*
-41.
6**
-40.
6**
-35.
4-0
.02
-0.0
3-0
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-0.0
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(18
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77)
(17
1)(1
89)
(22
4)(0
06)
(006
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05)
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(18.4
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7.7
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7.1)
(18.9
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(0.0
6)(0
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(0.0
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()
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2-4
32
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71
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92
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36
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65
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-007
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(0.0
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(0.0
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7.6
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6.9
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6.3)
(17.9
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(0.0
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(0.0
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37
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9-7
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63
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7.9
7.5
11.3
21.1
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.07
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(18
2)(1
74)
(16
8)(1
84)
(22
0)(0
06)
(005
)(0
05)
(003
)(0
04)
(18.2
)(1
7.4
)(1
6.8)
(18.4
)(2
2.0
)(0
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(0.0
5)(0
.05)
(0.0
3)(0
.04)
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
411
312
111
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258
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-25.
8-0
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3-0
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(18
2)(1
74)
(16
8)(1
86)
(22
3)(0
06)
(005
)(0
05)
(003
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04)
(18.2
)(1
7.4
)(1
6.8)
(18.6
)(2
2.3
)(0
.06)
(0.0
5)(0
.05)
(0.0
3)(0
.04)
47
77
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(18
5)(1
78)
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5)(1
7.8)
(17.
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(19.
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(0.0
6)(0
.06)
(0.0
5)
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4)
(18.5
)(1
7.8
)(1
7.2)
(19.0
)(2
2.7
)(0
.06)
(0.0
6)(0
.05)
(0.0
3)(0
.04)
630
6*
316
*30
8*
144
258
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1.6
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0.8
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4.4
-25.
8-0
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78)
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5)(1
7.8
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)(2
2.7
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6)(0
.05)
(0.0
3)(0
.04)
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
7-2
27
-18
2-2
07
-29
5-5
68
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007
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832
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(17.9
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(7
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68)
(6
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2)(2
16)
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05)
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)(0
03)
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)(1
7.9)
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2)(1
6.6)
(18.2
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5)(0
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join
tte
stal
lsh
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coef
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t te
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l sh
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ff e
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5
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
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Not
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All e
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adan e
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quen
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ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
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ng
sam
ple
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esta
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elf re
port
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r physi
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see
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quen
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ays
as
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f pea
k d
aylight
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duri
ng
sam
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
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er s
elf re
port
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r physi
cian e
stim
ate
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see
text)
. Shaded
are
as
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fici
ents
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evan
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ven
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ld
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ith
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All e
ntr
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adan e
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o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng
sam
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d (
see
text)
. Shaded
are
as
show
coef
fici
ents
that
are
rel
evan
t fo
r gi
ven
sa
mple
. C
olu
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10)
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fath
er’s
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Not
es:
All e
ntr
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are
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ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng
sam
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d (
see
text)
. Shaded
are
as
show
coef
fici
ents
that
are
rel
evan
t fo
r gi
ven
sa
mple
. C
olu
mns
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and (
10)
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ude
zipco
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rab r
ati
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=0.5
. C
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incl
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ers
age,
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er’s
age
squar
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tion
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tyfa
ther
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uca
tion
dum
my
for
mis
sing
fath
er’s
educa
tion
fath
er’s
age
fath
er’s
age
square
d
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng
sam
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d (
see
text)
. Shaded
are
as
show
coef
fici
ents
that
are
rel
evan
t fo
r gi
ven
sa
mple
. C
olu
mns
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10)
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ude
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ati
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incl
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age,
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er’s
age
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ed,
mot
her
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tion
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obac
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se, al
cohol
use
, par
ity, fa
ther
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tion
, dum
my for
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sing
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ther
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ther
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th,co
nce
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onm
onth
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mie
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unty
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mie
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dbir
thyea
rdum
mie
s.
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng
sam
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d (
see
text)
. Shaded
are
as
show
coef
fici
ents
that
are
rel
evan
t fo
r gi
ven
sa
mple
. C
olu
mns
(5)
and (
10)
excl
ude
zipco
des
wit
h a
Chald
ean/A
rab r
ati
o ¿
=0.5
. C
ontr
ols
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ude
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ther
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sing
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ther
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ther
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nce
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onm
onth
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mie
s,co
unty
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mie
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dbir
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rdum
mie
s.
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng
sam
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d (
see
text)
. Shaded
are
as
show
coef
fici
ents
that
are
rel
evan
t fo
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ven
sa
mple
. C
olu
mns
(5)
and (
10)
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ude
zipco
des
wit
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Chald
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rab r
ati
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=0.5
. C
ontr
ols
incl
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ers
age,
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age
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her
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tion
, t
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, par
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ther
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tion
, dum
my for
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sing
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, fa
ther
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ther
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quar
ed ,
num
ber
of pre
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us
pre
gnan
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that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
birth
, co
nce
pti
on m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
d b
irth
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r dum
mie
s.It
alici
zed e
stim
ate
s in
dic
ate
that
the
esti
mate
may r
epre
sent
post
nata
l ex
posu
re for
som
e sa
mple
mem
ber
s.
Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
aren
thes
es,
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng
sam
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d (
see
text)
. Shaded
are
as
show
coef
fici
ents
that
are
rel
evan
t fo
r gi
ven
sa
mple
. C
olu
mns
(5)
and (
10)
excl
ude
zipco
des
wit
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Chald
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rab r
ati
o ¿
=0.5
. C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
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ers
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er’s
age
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ed,
mot
her
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tion
, t
obac
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se, al
cohol
use
, par
ity, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion
, dum
my for
mis
sing
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tion
, fa
ther
’s a
ge, fa
ther
’s a
ge s
quar
ed ,
num
ber
of pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
birth
, co
nce
pti
on m
onth
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mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
d b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.It
alici
zed e
stim
ate
s in
dic
ate
that
the
esti
mate
may r
epre
sent
post
nata
l ex
posu
re for
som
e sa
mple
mem
ber
s.
Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
aren
thes
es,
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng
sam
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d (
see
text)
. Shaded
are
as
show
coef
fici
ents
that
are
rel
evan
t fo
r gi
ven
sa
mple
. C
olu
mns
(5)
and (
10)
excl
ude
zipco
des
wit
h a
Chald
ean/A
rab r
ati
o ¿
=0.5
. C
ontr
ols
incl
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ers
age,
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er’s
age
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ed,
mot
her
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tion
, t
obac
co u
se, al
cohol
use
, par
ity, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion
, dum
my for
mis
sing
fath
er’s
educa
tion
, fa
ther
’s a
ge, fa
ther
’s a
ge s
quar
ed ,
num
ber
of pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
birth
, co
nce
pti
on m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
d b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.It
alici
zed e
stim
ate
s in
dic
ate
that
the
esti
mate
may r
epre
sent
post
nata
l ex
posu
re for
som
e sa
mple
mem
ber
s.
Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
aren
thes
es,
*si
gnific
ant
at
10%
; ** s
ignific
ant
at
5%
; *** s
ignific
ant
at
1%
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
am
adan e
xposu
re t
o d
aylight
hours
over
subse
quen
t 30 d
ays
as
fract
ion o
f pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng
sam
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion is
eith
er s
elf re
port
ed o
r physi
cian e
stim
ate
d (
see
text)
. Shaded
are
as
show
coef
fici
ents
that
are
rel
evan
t fo
r gi
ven
sa
mple
. C
olu
mns
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10)
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ude
zipco
des
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h a
Chald
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rab r
ati
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=0.5
. C
ontr
ols
incl
ude
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ers
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er’s
age
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ed,
mot
her
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tion
, t
obac
co u
se, al
cohol
use
, par
ity, fa
ther
’s e
duca
tion
, dum
my for
mis
sing
fath
er’s
educa
tion
, fa
ther
’s a
ge, fa
ther
’s a
ge s
quar
ed ,
num
ber
of pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
res
ult
ed in d
eath
at
birth
, co
nce
pti
on m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
d b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.It
alici
zed e
stim
ate
s in
dic
ate
that
the
esti
mate
may r
epre
sent
post
nata
l ex
posu
re for
som
e sa
mple
mem
ber
s.
Sta
ndard
err
ors
in p
aren
thes
es,
*si
gnific
ant
at
10%
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ignific
ant
at
5%
; *** s
ignific
ant
at
1%
Tab
leA
5:E
ffec
tsof
Ram
adan
Expos
ure
onO
ther
Bir
thO
utc
omes
by
Ges
tati
onM
onth
Mic
hig
anA
rabs
Tab
le A
5: E
ffec
ts o
f R
amad
an E
xpos
ure
on O
ther
Bir
th O
utc
omes
by G
esta
tion
Mon
th, M
ichig
an A
rabs
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
Gi
LI
f5
iM
lN
lG
esta
tion
Low
Infa
nt
5-m
inute
Mat
ernal
Neo
nat
alG
esta
tion
Low
Infa
nt
5m
inute
Mat
ernal
Neo
nat
alM
thB
ith
Dth
AP
GA
RW
iht
It
iP
Ab
lC
itl
Mon
thB
irth
Dea
thA
PG
AR
Wei
ght
Inte
nsi
ve
Pre
gnan
cyA
bnorm
al
Conge
nit
al
Mon
thB
irth
Dea
thA
PG
AR
Wei
ght
Inte
nsi
ve
Pre
gnan
cyA
bnorm
al
Congen
ital
expos
ure
Wei
ght
Per
inat
alsc
ore
Gai
nC
are
Unit
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ctio
nC
omplica
tion
Condit
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Anom
aly
expos
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Wei
ght
Per
inat
al
scor
eG
ain
Car
e U
nit
C-s
ecti
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omplica
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Condit
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Anom
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pg
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fici
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day
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mat
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ths
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hge
stat
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wee
n25
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42
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es:
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ntr
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fici
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ple
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tion
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ntr
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rs o
ver
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quen
t 30
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frac
tion
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k d
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ple
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esta
tion
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elf re
por
ted o
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imat
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ll s
ample
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ths
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ther
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fici
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rs o
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quen
t 30
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k d
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ng
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ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion
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elf re
por
ted o
r physi
cian
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imat
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ll s
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ths
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ther
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ther
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es:
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ntr
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t 30
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ng
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ths
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ty,
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ther
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ther
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gnan
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sult
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eath
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th, co
nce
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on m
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ounty
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All e
ntr
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coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
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day
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t hou
rs o
ver
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quen
t 30
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tion
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k d
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tion
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sult
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th, co
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ounty
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mie
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irth
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r dum
mie
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sam
ple
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b m
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codes
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h a
lar
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lici
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ate
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mat
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ay r
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ntr
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fici
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day
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rs o
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quen
t 30
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frac
tion
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k d
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ng
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ple
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tion
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ty,
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ther
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gnan
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sult
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th, co
nce
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mie
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ounty
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mie
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irth
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r dum
mie
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b m
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h a
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lici
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ndard
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ntr
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fici
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rs o
ver
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quen
t 30
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tion
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ll s
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other
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ty,
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ther
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th, co
nce
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mie
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r dum
mie
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mat
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fici
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tion
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ple
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tion
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ll s
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h g
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gnan
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re
sult
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eath
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th, co
nce
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on m
onth
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mie
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ounty
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mie
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irth
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r dum
mie
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b m
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tion
of pea
k d
aylight
hours
duri
ng
sam
ple
per
iod. G
esta
tion
is
eith
er s
elf re
por
ted o
r physi
cian
est
imat
ed. A
ll s
ample
s use
bir
ths
wit
h g
esta
tion
bet
wee
n 2
5 a
nd 4
2
wee
ks.
A
ll r
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ude
contr
ols
for
mot
her
s ag
e, m
other
’s a
ge s
quar
ed, m
other
’s e
duca
tion
, t
obac
co u
se, al
cohol use
, pari
ty,
fath
er’s
educa
tion
, dum
my for
mis
sing
fath
er’s
educa
tion
, fa
ther
’s a
ge, fa
ther
’s a
ge s
quar
ed, num
ber
of pre
vio
us
pre
gnan
cies
that
re
sult
ed in d
eath
at
bir
th, co
nce
pti
on m
onth
dum
mie
s, c
ounty
dum
mie
s an
d b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s. T
he
sam
ple
dro
ps
Ara
b m
oth
ers
livin
g in
zip
codes
wit
h a
lar
ge s
har
e of
Chal
dea
ns.
Ita
lici
zed e
stim
ates
indic
ate
that
the
esti
mat
e m
ay r
epre
sent
pos
t nat
al e
xposu
re for
som
e sa
mple
mem
ber
s. S
tandar
d e
rror
s in
par
enth
eses
, *s
ignific
ant
at 1
0%; **
sig
nific
ant
at 5
%; **
* si
gnific
ant
at 1
%
Tab
leA
6:E
ffec
tsof
Ram
adan
Expos
ure
onD
isab
ilit
yO
utc
omes
Uga
ndan
Musl
ims
by
Mon
ths
Pri
orto
Bir
thT
able
A6:
Effec
ts o
f R
amad
an E
xpos
ure
on D
isab
ilit
y O
utc
omes
, U
gandan
Musl
ims
by M
onth
s P
rior
to B
irth
py
,g
y
Mon
ths
Mon
ths
Pri
orto
Men
tal/
Low
erU
pper
Pri
or t
oM
enta
l/Low
erU
pper
Bir
thD
isab
ilit
ySig
ht/
Blind
Hea
ring/
Dea
fLea
rnin
gP
sych
olog
ical
Extr
emit
ies
Extr
emit
ies
Bir
thD
isab
ilit
ySig
ht/
Blind
Hea
ring/
Dea
fLea
rnin
gP
sych
olog
ical
Extr
emit
ies
Extr
emit
ies
10-0
.127
0.00
0-0
.080
0.02
80.
038
-0.1
12
0.0
32
10-0
.127
0.0
00-0
.080
0.02
80.
038
-0.1
12
0.032
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
(0.4
03)
(0.2
16)
(0.1
32)
(0.0
79)
(0.0
80)
(0.2
36)
(0.1
33)
(0.4
03)
(0.2
16)
(0.1
32)
(0.0
79)
(0.0
80)
(0.2
36)
(0.1
33)
90
793*
*0
349*
022
7*0
255*
**0
091
0312
0064
90.
793*
*0.
349*
0.22
7*0.
255*
**-0
.091
0.3
12
-0.0
64
90.7
930.
349
0.22
70.
255
0.0
910.3
12
0.064
(036
8)(0
197)
(012
0)(0
073)
(007
3)(0
216)
(0122)
(0.3
68)
(0.1
97)
(0.1
20)
(0.0
73)
(0.0
73)
(0.2
16)
(0.1
22)
(0.3
68)
(0.1
97)
(0.1
20)
(0.0
73)
(0.0
73)
(0.2
16)
(0.1
22)
80
035
007
80
129
011
50
052
0011
0021
80.
035
-0.0
780.
129
0.11
5-0
.052
0.0
11
0.021
(037
5)(0
201)
(012
3)(0
074)
(007
5)(0
220)
(0124)
(0.3
75)
(0.2
01)
(0.1
23)
(0.0
74)
(0.0
75)
(0.2
20)
(0.1
24)
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
7-0
176
-002
20
102
003
80
071
-0355
0088
7-0
.176
-0.0
220.
102
0.03
80.
071
-0.3
55
0.088
(037
5)(0
201)
(012
3)(0
074)
(007
5)(0
220)
(0124)
(0.3
75)
(0.2
01)
(0.1
23)
(0.0
74)
(0.0
75)
(0.2
20)
(0.1
24)
60
152
007
40
132
011
008
40
191
0096
60.
152
0.07
40.
132
0.11
-0.0
84-0
.191
0.0
96
60.
152
0.0
740.
132
0.11
0.0
840.1
91
0.096
(038
2)(0
205)
(012
5)(0
075)
(007
6)(0
224)
(0126)
(0.3
82)
(0.2
05)
(0.1
25)
(0.0
75)
(0.0
76)
(0.2
24)
(0.1
26)
(0.3
82)
(0.2
05)
(0.1
25)
(0.0
75)
(0.0
76)
(0.2
24)
(0.1
26)
50
040
004
016
80
139*
004
40
085
0025
50.
04-0
.004
0.16
80.
139*
-0.0
44-0
.085
-0.0
25
(037
6)(0
202)
(012
3)(0
074)
(007
5)(0
221)
(0125)
(0.3
76)
(0.2
02)
(0.1
23)
(0.0
74)
(0.0
75)
(0.2
21)
(0.1
25)
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
40
229
003
90
044
012
7*-0
036
-0007
019
40.
229
0.0
390.
044
0.12
7*-0
.036
-0.0
07
0.1
9(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(0
.379
)(0
.203
)(0
.124
)(0
.075
)(0
.076
)(0
.222)
(0.1
26)
(0.3
79)
(0.2
03)
(0.1
24)
(0.0
75)
(0.0
76)
(0.2
22)
(0.1
26)
30
059
012
40
071
004
90
004
0158
0017
30.
059
0.12
40.
071
0.04
90.
004
-0.1
58
-0.0
17
30.
059
0.1
240.
071
0.04
90.
004
0.1
58
0.017
(039
1)(0
210)
(012
8)(0
077)
(007
8)(0
229)
(0130)
(0.3
91)
(0.2
10)
(0.1
28)
(0.0
77)
(0.0
78)
(0.2
29)
(0.1
30)
(0.3
91)
(0.2
10)
(0.1
28)
(0.0
77)
(0.0
78)
(0.2
29)
(0.1
30)
20
307
027
20
015
3**
000
70
095
0012
2-0
.307
-0.2
720
0.15
3**
-0.0
07-0
.095
0.012
(037
3)(0
200)
(012
2)(0
074)
(007
4)(0
219)
(0124)
(0.3
73)
(0.2
00)
(0.1
22)
(0.0
74)
(0.0
74)
(0.2
19)
(0.1
24)
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
1-0
158
001
80
052
010
1-0
017
-0106
-0042
1-0
.158
0.0
180.
052
0.10
1-0
.017
-0.1
06
-0.0
42
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
(0.4
05)
(0.2
17)
(0.1
32)
(0.0
80)
(0.0
81)
(0.2
37)
(0.1
34)
(0.4
05)
(0.2
17)
(0.1
32)
(0.0
80)
(0.0
81)
(0.2
37)
(0.1
34)
ji
tt
tffi
it
th1
t9
lt
0jo
int
test
, co
effici
ents
on m
onth
s 1
to 9
equal
to
0jo
int
test
, co
effici
ents
on m
onth
s 1
to 9
equal
to 0
l0
380
058
00
680
006
00
780
0370
0830
p-v
alue
0.38
00.
580
0.68
00.
060
0.78
00.3
70
0.8
30
pval
ue
0.38
00.
580
0.68
00.
060
0.78
00.3
70
0.8
30
M3
80%
106
%0
38%
014
%0
14%
125%
039%
Mea
n3.
80%
1.06
%0.
38%
0.14
%0.
14%
1.2
5%
0.3
9%
Mea
n3.
80%
1.06
%0.
38%
0.14
%0.
14%
1.2
5%
0.39%
N80
924
8092
280
923
8092
180
921
80921
80921
N80
924
8092
280
923
8092
180
921
80921
80921
N80
924
8092
280
923
8092
180
921
80921
80921
NA
lli
ffi
iR
dd
hfd
li
ih
Rd
di
hi
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
nin
e m
onth
spre
cedin
gbir
th(r
ampct
)E
ach
outc
ome
ism
ult
iplied
by
100
soth
atco
effici
ents
are
inunit
sof
per
centa
gepoi
nts
All
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
nin
e m
onth
spre
cedin
gbir
th(r
ampct
)E
ach
outc
ome
ism
ult
iplied
by
100
soth
atco
effici
ents
are
inunit
sof
per
centa
gepoi
nts
All
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g bir
th (
ram
pct
). E
ach o
utc
ome
is m
ult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. A
ll
regr
essi
ons
incl
ude
anin
dic
ator
for
fem
ale
bir
thm
onth
dum
mie
sdis
tric
tof
bir
thdum
mie
san
dbir
thyea
rdum
mie
s
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g bir
th (
ram
pct
). E
ach o
utc
ome
is m
ult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. A
ll
regr
essi
ons
incl
ude
anin
dic
ator
for
fem
ale
bir
thm
onth
dum
mie
sdis
tric
tof
bir
thdum
mie
san
dbir
thyea
rdum
mie
s
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g bir
th (
ram
pct
). E
ach o
utc
ome
is m
ult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. A
ll
regr
essi
ons
incl
ude
an indic
ator
for
fem
ale,
bir
th m
onth
dum
mie
s, d
istr
ict
of b
irth
dum
mie
s an
d b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.
Not
es:
All e
ntr
ies
are
coef
fici
ents
on R
amad
an e
xpos
ure
mea
sure
d a
s th
e per
cent
of d
ays
over
lappin
g w
ith R
amad
an d
uri
ng
the
nin
e m
onth
s pre
cedin
g bir
th (
ram
pct
). E
ach o
utc
ome
is m
ult
iplied
by 1
00, so
that
coe
ffic
ients
are
in u
nit
s of
per
centa
ge p
oints
. A
ll
regr
essi
ons
incl
ude
an indic
ator
for
fem
ale,
bir
th m
onth
dum
mie
s, d
istr
ict
of b
irth
dum
mie
s an
d b
irth
yea
r dum
mie
s.
Tab
leA
7:E
ffec
tsof
Ram
adan
Expos
ure
onC
ause
sofD
isab
ilit
ies
Uga
ndan
Musl
ims
by
Mon
ths
Pri
orto
Bir
thT
able
A7:
Effec
ts o
f R
amad
an E
xpos
ure
on C
ause
s of D
isab
ilit
ies,
Uga
ndan
Musl
ims,
by M
onth
s P
rior
to
Bir
thg
y
Mth
Ul
td
tt
lt
iti
Pib
lR
lt
dt
tl
tit
iM
onth
s U
nre
late
d t
o pre
nat
al n
utr
itio
nP
ossi
bly
Rel
ated
to
pre
nat
al n
utr
itio
nM
onth
s
Pi
t
Unre
late
d t
o pre
nat
al n
utr
itio
nP
ossi
bly
Rel
ated
to
pre
nat
al n
utr
itio
n
Pri
or t
oP
rior
to
Bi
thA
idt
OI
jW
Ij
Ai
Di
Cit
lB
irth
Acc
iden
tO
cc. In
jury
War
Inju
ryA
gin
gD
isea
seC
onge
nit
alB
irth
Acc
iden
tO
cc. In
jury
War
Inju
ryA
ging
Dis
ease
Con
genit
al9
006
00
059
005
40
373*
**0
199
005
99
-0.0
600.
059
0.0
540.3
73**
*0.
199
0.0
599
006
00
059
005
037
30
990
059
(014
2)(0
074)
(005
2)(0
136)
(026
7)(0
074)
(0.1
42)
(0.0
74)
(0.0
52)
(0.1
36)
(0.2
67)
(0.0
74)
()
()
()
()
()
()
80
042
-002
30
001
013
7-0
025
-002
38
0.04
2-0
.023
0.0
010.1
37-0
.025
-0.0
23(0
.133
)(0
.070
)(0
.049
)(0
.127
)(0
.250
)(0
.070
)(0
.133
)(0
.070
)(0
.049
)(0
.127
)(0
.250
)(0
.070
)
70
102
006
30
000
003
40
248
006
37
-0.1
02-0
.063
0.00
0-0
.034
-0.2
48-0
.063
70.
102
0.06
30.
000
0.03
40.
248
0.06
3(0
137)
(007
2)(0
050)
(013
2)(0
259)
(007
2)(0
.137
)(0
.072
)(0
.050
)(0
.132
)(0
.259
)(0
.072
)(0
.137
)(0
.072
)(0
.050
)(0
.132
)(0
.259
)(0
.072
)
6-0
025
005
00
043
022
2*-0
369
005
06
-0.0
250.
050
0.0
430.
222*
-0.3
690.0
50(0
139)
(007
3)(0
051)
(013
4)(0
262)
(007
3)(0
.139
)(0
.073
)(0
.051
)(0
.134
)(0
.262
)(0
.073
)
50
127
000
90
085*
002
20
100
000
95
0.12
7-0
.009
-0.0
85*
-0.0
220.
100
-0.0
095
0.12
70.
009
0.08
50.0
220.
100
0.00
9(0
137)
(007
2)(0
050)
(013
2)(0
258)
(007
2)(0
.137
)(0
.072
)(0
.050
)(0
.132
)(0
.258
)(0
.072
)(0
.137
)(0
.072
)(0
.050
)(0
.132
)(0
.258
)(0
.072
)
40
179
001
80
064
005
50
252
001
84
0.17
90.
018
0.0
640.0
55-0
.252
0.0
18(0
139)
(007
3)(0
051)
(013
3)(0
261)
(007
3)(0
.139
)(0
.073
)(0
.051
)(0
.133
)(0
.261
)(0
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)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)(
)
473
-0.0
90.
031
0.04
70.
110
0.00
60.
031
3-0
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0.03
10.0
470.1
100.
006
0.0
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144)
(007
5)(0
053)
(013
8)(0
270)
(007
5)(0
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)(0
.053
)(0
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)(0
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)(0
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)(0
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)(0
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)(0
.053
)(0
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)(0
.270
)(0
.075
)
20
161
006
30
021
001
10
158
006
32
0.16
1-0
.063
0.0
21-0
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-0.1
58-0
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(013
8)(0
072)
(005
0)(0
132)
(025
9)(0
072)
(0.1
38)
(0.0
72)
(0.0
50)
(0.1
32)
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ts. A
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Figure A1: Women’s Weight Change Around Ramadan in Gambia
Source: Cole (1993)
Figure A2: Michigan Arab Population by Zipcode
Panel A: Quartiles of the Arab Population
Panel B: Ratio of the Chaldean to Arab Population
Source: Author's calculations using the 2000 Census SF3 file
Panel A: Quartiles of the Arab Population
Panel B: Ratio of the Chaldean to Arab Population
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eigh
t0.
001
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t0.
001
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
000
09
0.00
1
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
000
09
0.00
1
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
0.00
09
0.00
1
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
000
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
000
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
000
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
000
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
tyFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
tyFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
nsityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
nsityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
ensityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
ensityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
l densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
l densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
nal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
nal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
ernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
ernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
000
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
000
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
000
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
000
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1 1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
3600
3900
4200
4500
4800
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1 1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
3600
3900
4200
4500
4800
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1 1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
3600
3900
4200
4500
4800
Kernal densityFi
gure
A4:
Dis
trib
utio
nal E
ffect
of F
irst M
onth
Exp
osur
e on
Birt
hwei
ght
0
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1 1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
3600
3900
4200
4500
4800
Kernal density
Birt
hwei
ght
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
0
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1 1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
3600
3900
4200
4500
4800
Kernal density
Birt
hwei
ght
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
0
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1 1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
3600
3900
4200
4500
4800
Kernal density
Birt
hwei
ght
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
0
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1 1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
3600
3900
4200
4500
4800
Kernal density
Birt
hwei
ght
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
0
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1 1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
3600
3900
4200
4500
4800
Kernal density
Birt
hwei
ght
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
not i
n ut
ero
1st m
onth
exp
osur
e
0
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1 1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
3600
3900
4200
4500
4800
Kernal density
Birt
hwei
ght
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
not i
n ut
ero
1st m
onth
exp
osur
e
0
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1 1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
3600
3900
4200
4500
4800
Kernal density
Birt
hwei
ght
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
not i
n ut
ero
1st m
onth
exp
osur
e
0
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1 1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
3600
3900
4200
4500
4800
Kernal density
Birt
hwei
ght
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
not i
n ut
ero
1st m
onth
exp
osur
e
0
0.00
01
0.00
02
0.00
03
0.00
04
0.00
05
0.00
06
0.00
07
0.00
08
0.00
09
0.00
1 1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
3600
3900
4200
4500
4800
Kernal density
Birt
hwei
ght
Figu
re A
4:D
istr
ibut
iona
l Effe
ct o
f Firs
t Mon
th E
xpos
ure
on B
irthw
eigh
t
not i
n ut
ero
1st m
onth
exp
osur
e