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National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call December 19, 2016 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT Click here to listen to the recording and follow along with the presentation

National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Page 2: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

NCR HUG Call Details Conference Call Details: 1. Dial-in: 1-302-202-1110 2. Conference code: 697620

Join the Meeting through Adobe Connect: (No Registration Required)Click here to access the Adobe Connect meeting

The call will be recorded and the audio will be combined with the presentation and sent out at the end of the call. The audio and presentation will also be made available on the following websites:

NCR HUG Use HAZUS page - http://www.usehazus.com/ncrhugNCR HUG LinkedIn page - http://www.linkedin.com/groups/National-Capitol-Region-HAZUS-User-4790251?trk=myg_ugrp_ovr

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Page 3: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

Agenda• Welcome + Announcements

– Upcoming HAZUS training at EMI– New geospatial resources – New Leadership of the NCR HUG

• National Risk Index – National set of hazard-specific risk indices create a multi-hazard index that will be hosted on an Interactive online viewer. – Casey Zuzak, FEMA Region VIII & Cynthia McCoy, FEMA Region X

• Request for Volunteers – January 2017 NCR HUG Call

• Adjourn

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Page 4: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

Upcoming HAZUS Courses at EMIThe Emergency Management Institute (EMI) has the following HAZUS training course available:

E0317: Comprehensive Data Management for Hazus-MH – March 13-16 & May 1-4 & September 25-28E0176: Hazus-MH for Floodplain Managers – March 27-30E0313: Basic Hazus- MH – April 3-6E0172: Hazus-MH for Flood – June 12-15E0170: Hazus-MH for Hurricane – July 24-27E0296: Application of Hazus-MH for Risk Assessment - August 14-17E0179: Application of Hazus-MH for Disaster Operations – September 11-14E0174: Hazus-MH for Earthquake (updating)

Please note that enrollment is closed for each course, 6 weeks prior to the course!

HAZUS Training Specialist at EMI: Paul Ganem - [email protected] apply for a HAZUS training course, please visit: http://training.fema.gov/Apply/– To enroll, download the Admission Application For further information on

registration, please visit training.fema.gov/emiweb

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Page 5: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

New Geospatial Resources & Natural hazard News

The National Geospatial Training and Awareness Program has released its recent schedule of webinar GIS courseshttp://fsweb.geotraining.fs.fed.us/www/index.phpFor additional national application training visit the NRM training website and calendar.

– Website http://fsweb.nrm.fs.fed.us/support/training/– Calendar http://fsweb.nrm.fs.fed.us:8085/training/iweb_training

Vancouver Weighs Options for Flood Resiliencehttps://nextcity.org/daily/entry/vancouver-climate-change-resilience-strategies

New HUD Rules Plan for Future Floodinghttps://nextcity.org/daily/entry/hud-proposes-new-resilience-standard

Using The National Map Products and Services http://training.usgs.gov/TEL/TheNationalMap/TNM-TEL-Index.html

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Page 6: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

New National Capitol Region HUG LeadershipBeginning JAN 2017 the NCR HUG Leadership will be transitioned to:Bill Bohn, [email protected]://www.linkedin.com/in/bill-bohn-ab858214

Zachary Baccala, [email protected]://www.linkedin.com/in/zachary-baccala-gisp-cfm-9099b317

Aim to provide you with new tools and trainings to increase geospatial capacity and increase awareness of Hazus-MH functionality

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Page 7: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

FEMA’s National Risk Index

Monday December 19, 2016Casey Zuzak, FEMA Region VIII & Cynthia McCoy, FEMA Region X

Page 8: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Agenda National Risk Index (NRI) Background FEMA Region 8 Previous Work NRI Working Group Breakdown and Progress

• Hazard Data• Social Vulnerability and Resilience Data• Built Environment Data

Mockups Timeline

Page 9: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Project Goal To develop a Nationwide Natural Risk Index

• To include national set of hazard-specific risk indices • To be used independently, or combined to create a multi-hazard index• Aim to represent a level/rank/indicator of risk and will leverage existing baselines and datasets

as much as possible. • To include numerous authoritative geospatial datasets (hazard layers/areas, previous events

data, risk layers, etc.). • Interactive online viewer that will allow the user to:

Develop risk index for defined geographic region Export tabular and geospatial results for each hazard Generate maps and reports to be compatible for direct insertion into Hazard Mitigation Plans

Enhance FEMA Initiatives• The outputs from this project will serve to inform regional project prioritization, resource

allocation, mitigation/land use planning, and community engagement strategies across FEMA.

SUPPORT National Stakeholders• This data can be incorporated into State Business Plans, State and Local Mitigation Plans,

inform the Areas of Mitigation Interest (AOMI) dataset to prioritize funding, and be used to identify action to reduce future risk.

Page 10: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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National Risk Index

Page 11: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Intended Applications & Use CasesIntended Applications –Public Serving Hazard Mitigation Planning RiskMAP THIRA Long Term Recovery Operations Planning Programmatic outreach

(earthquake program, NFIP hurricane program, etc.)

Research community Local officials, Emergency managers, Community planners

Possible Use Cases – Public Serving State/County/Tribal/Local Hazard

Mitigation Planning General risk awareness for the

public Hazard Mitigation Grant Program

application/prioritization Targeted investment of Federal risk

reduction programs Baseline risk assessment for

highlighting areas that could benefit from more detailed analysis

Encouraging community engagement in identifying risk reduction strategies

Page 12: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Whose Helping Develop the NRI

Local & Regional

Government

State Government

Academia Federal Government

Non Profit

Private Sector

FEMA

Page 13: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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FEMA Region 8 Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Index

Page 14: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Purpose• Standardized, documented, and actively maintained analysis platform

for “apples to apples” comparison on an intra- and inter- region basis.

• Method for identifying new and existing mitigation and planning projects including pilot projects and grant programs.

• Method for Identifying areas where high hazard risk is prevalent but planning and mitigation projects are lacking.

Page 15: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Hazards Flood Fire (Wildland and Grassland) Earthquake Severe Weather

• Winter Weather• Hail• Lightning• Severe Thunderstorm• Tornado

Landslide Levees

Data Sources

• HAZUS – Loss estimation software, Department of Homeland Security (FEMA)

• SHELDUS – Spatial Hazards Events & Losses Database for the United States (University of South Carolina)

• LANDFIRE – Landscape Fire & Resource Management Planning Tools Project (USDA Forest Service & Department of the Interior)

• HSIP – Homeland Security Information Program, Department of Homeland Security (FEMA)

• BureauNet – Department of Homeland Security (FEMA)

• Data Warehouse – Department of Homeland Security (FEMA)

• USACE – United States Army Corps of Engineers

Page 16: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Methodology Compilation of national datasets including historical hazard information

and modeled hazard loss

All data sets were compiled into an single data structure and database

Relative ranking of counties by deciles and deciles per capita for each hazard

Page 17: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Results

Page 18: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Results By CountyTotal Composite Hazard Risk

1. Larimer County, CO 16. Douglas County, CO2. Utah County, UT 17. Gunnison County, CO3. Washington County, UT 18. Minnehaha County, SD4. Jefferson County, CO 19. Denver County, CO5. Cass County, ND 20. Arapahoe County, CO6. Weber County, UT 21. El Paso County, CO7. Missoula County, MT 22. Ravalli County, MT8. Pitkin County, CO 23. Codington County, SD9. Summit County, CO 24. Boulder County, CO10. Summit County, UT 25. Park County, MT11. Pueblo County, CO 26. Lincoln County, MT12. Weld County, CO 27. Fremont County, CO13. Mesa County, CO 28. Lake County, MT14. Adams County, CO 29. Brown County, SD15. Salt Lake County, UT 30. Grand Forks County, ND

Total Composite Hazard RiskPer Capita

1. Hinsdale County, CO 16. Juab County, UT2. San Juan County, CO 17. Pitkin County, CO3. Ouray County, CO 18. Daggett County, CO4. Mineral County, CO 19. Crook County, WY5. Gunnison County, CO 20. Archuleta County, CO6. Treasure County, MT 21. Petroleum County, MT7. Garfield County, UT 22. Custer County, CO8. Sheridan County, MT 23. Meagher County, MT9. Golden Valley County, MT 24. Toole County, MT10. Jackson County, CO 25. McCone County, MT11. Garfield County, MT 26. Kiowa County, CO12. Summit County, CO 27. Campbell County, SD13. San Miguel County, CO 28. Dolores County, CO14. Piute County, UT 29. Mineral County, MT15. Morgan County, UT 30. Madison County, MT

Page 19: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Risk – the intersection of hazard and consequence

What is Risk?

Flood

Hurricane

Earthquake

Tornado

Snowstorm

Social Vulnerability

Resilience

Built Environment

consequence Hazard

RISK

Page 20: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Developing the NRI

Task: Develop recommendations for

symbology, aggregation, normalization, and index methodologies for each

dataset

Task: Design & Develop a National Hazards and

Vulnerability Risk Index Tool based upon

recommendations

Task: Identify Hazard Types& Dataset Sources

Natural Hazards Working Group

Social Vulnerability

Working Group

Data Analytics

Working Group

Page 21: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Working GroupsSocial

Vulnerability Data Set

Identification Aggregation Normalization and

Standardization Visualization Authoritative data

source Type of data to use

Data Analytics Uniting Social

Vulnerability and Hazard data and their Working Group Findings

Visualization Final Products

Hazards• Vulnerability or

Resilience• Methodologies• Data Set

Identification• All-Hazards and

Nationally Applicable

Page 22: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Hazard Working Group Identify Hazards to Include in the National Risk Index Confirm and identify best available data sources Develop a process to incorporate Hazard Data

Page 23: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Hazards1212

1044

482

4723

1231

148

231

123

3820

262

3210

3044

169

4736

45

Avalanche*Coastal Flood *Community Fire

Dam FaliureDrought

DustEarthquake

EriosonExpansive Soils*

Extreme TemperaturesFissure

FloodFogHail

High SurfHurricane*Landslide

Levee FailureLightning

Salt Water IntrusionSevere Summer Weather

Sea Level RiseSubsidence

TornadoTsunami/Seiche*

Volcano*Wildfire

WindWinter Weather

Reviewed the 50 State Hazard Mitigation Plans

Natural Hazards Only

Identified hazards to include and potential data sources

• Must be nationally applicable/available

• Public• Probabilistic or Frequency based• Census Tract level

0 10 20 30 40 50

Page 24: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Categorizing the Hazards

Geography

CoastalVolcanoPlainsEtc.

Source

MeteorologicalGeophysicalEtc.

Hazard Type

Severe StormEarthquakeFlooding

Hazard

IceHailLightning

Page 25: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Hazards to include Drought Earthquake Extreme Temperature

• Hot and Cold

Flooding• Flash Flooding• Riverine Flooding

Hurricane• Wind• Surge

Mass Movement• Avalanche• Expansive Soil/Subsidence• Landslide/Mudslide

Sea Level Rise Severe Weather

• Hail• Lightning• Strong Winds• Tornado

Tsunami/Seiche Volcano Wildfire

• Wildfire• Grassland Fire

Winter Weather• Snowstorm/Blizzard• Ice Storm

Page 26: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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List of Hazard Datasets Wind (HURRICANE / TROPICAL STORM)

• NOAA National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#hurdat Historic Atlantic from 1951-2015, Pacific from 1949-2015

• Hazus Wind Probabilistic Geodatabase: https://msc.fema.gov/portal/resources/hazus

• NOAA Storm Events Database: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/ County Level from 1996-2011

Hail• NOAA Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

Includes Lat/Long and FIPS code

• NOAA Storm Events Database: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/ Lat/long from 1996-2016

Lightning NOAA NCDC Severe Weather Data Inventory: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/swdi/#Intro

1986-present data but raw data is only allowed to govt. and military users. Summarized data for public

NOAA Storm Events Database: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/ Separate datasets for each year that must be combined (1950-2016)

Page 27: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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List of Hazard Datasets (cont.) Strong Winds

• NOAA Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data• NOAA Storm Events Database: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/

Tornado• NOAA Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data• NOAA Storm Events Database: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/

Ice• US Army Corps of Engineers: http://rsgisias.crrel.usace.army.mil/ice/icegis.html#

Includes “storm footprints” as a shapefile. 1940s – present data. Shows damage to powerlines/towers.

Snowstorm/Blizzard• NOAA Storm Events Database: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/

Bulk download from NOAA. Must filter by “Snowstorm”

• NOAA National Weather Service/National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC): http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/#snow_reports Shapefiles of data from 2003 - present

Page 28: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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List of Hazard Datasets (cont.) Heat Wave

• NOAA North American Climate Extremes Monitoring: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ghcn/comparative-climatic-data Txt. Format. Shows highest temperature on record + mean days over 90 deg. per station

• NOAA Storm Events Database: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/

Cold Wave NOAA North American Climate Extremes Monitoring:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ghcn/comparative-climatic-data NOAA Storm Events Database: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/

• Coastal Flood NOAA NWS: http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/sloshPub/disclaim.php NOAA Storm Events Database: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/

• Flash Flood• NOAA: http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/index.html• NOAA: http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/index.html

Page 29: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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List of Hazard Datasets (cont.) Riverine Flood

• FEMA Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) Exposure Resource Map: http://fema.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=5767b4c3ac164e54916bc7ebc20d25d6

• FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL): https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-hazard-layer-nfhl

Drought• National Drought Mitigation Center – UNL:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/MapsAndData/GISData.aspx

Wildfire• USGS: http://wildfire.cr.usgs.gov/firehistory/data.html

Sea Level Rise• NOAA Coast: https://coast.noaa.gov/slrdata/

3 Data sets – raster and 2 polygon sets

Page 30: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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List of Hazard Datasets (cont.) Earthquake

• 2014 NEHRP PGA 2,500 year

Tsunami / Seiche• NOAA NCEI: https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/tsu_db.shtml

Volcanic Activity• UN office for Disaster risk reduction: https://data.humdata.org/dataset/volcano-

population-exposure-index-gvm

Avalanche• CO Avalanche Information Center: http://avalanche.state.co.us/accidents/statistics-

and-reporting/

Expansive Soil / Subsidence• USDA: http://websoilsurvey.sc.egov.usda.gov/App/HomePage.htm

Landslide / Mudslide• USGS: http://landslides.usgs.gov/hazards/nationalmap/

Page 31: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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• We have discussed multiple approaches:

Risk Approaches

• Historic• A record of incidents that have already occurred

• For example, a map showing that over the past 50 years, 3 major hurricanes occurred in the same Florida county

• Probabilistic • A probability of an event occurring based on the magnitude of the event

• For example, 100-year storms or 1000-year storms where the rate of occurrence of an event is linked to the severity of a storm

• Annualized• The probability that a risk will occur in a particular year

• For example, if insurance data suggests that a serious fire is likely to occur once in 25 years, then the annualized rate of occurrence is 1/25 = 0.04 (or 4%)

• Loss Estimation• Based on the economic impact of an incident

• For example, average dollar losses per year

Page 32: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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• The NGDC/WDS Tsunami Runup database (left) and the USGS Federal Fire Occurrence database (right) both show historic data, locations where these hazards have occurred in the past

Data Source - Example

Page 33: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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• The USGS National Seismic Hazard Map, however, takes an probabilistic approach, showing peak ground accelerations likely to be exceeded in a 50 year period

Data Source - Example

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Data Classification: Type

• Goal is to present data as risk scores• Individual hazard probability• Individual hazard risk score• Composite hazard risk score

• Need to have a consistent data classification for each individual hazard in order to compare risk scores across hazards

Page 35: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Hazard + _________ = Risk? Social Vulnerability – susceptibility of social groups to the impacts of

hazards such as disproportionate death, injury, loss, or disruption of livelihood

Resilience – ability to adequately recover from the impacts of hazards

Risk – the intersection of hazard and assets

Are we limited to just Social Vulnerability OR Resiliency?What about exploring both options and let the end user decide?

Our Goal is to create a National Risk Index, not to create a Social Vulnerability or Resiliency Index.

What about the Built Environment Exposure?

Page 36: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Potential Response OptionsN

eed

Maintaining IndependenceCommunicationTransportationSupervisionMedical Care

Dem

ogra

phic

Socioeconomic StatusGenderRace and EthnicityAgeEmployment StatusResidence TypeOccupationEducationFamily StructureMedical ServicesSocial DependenceSpecial-needs Population

Haz

ard

Sour

ce

AtmosphericHydrologicGeologic/ Geophysical

Hyd

rolo

gic

Haz

ards

Coastal HazardsSea Level RiseDroughtsFlooding (incl. Dam Failure)

Social Vulnerability and Resiliency for

All-Natural Hazards

(As defined by the Natural Hazards Working Group)

Page 37: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Social Vulnerability Indices

• Adger, et al. – Predictive Indicators of Vulnerability• Cutter, et al; University of South Carolina, Hazards and Vulnerability Research

Institute – Social Vulnerability Index• CDC Social Vulnerability Index• ESRI – Social Vulnerability• Texas Coastal Planning Atlas – Social Vulnerability Mapping Tools• Wisner, et al.: PAR model, Access model

• Hazard-specific:• Davidson and Shah – EDRI (Earthquake Disaster Risk Index)• Lambert and Davidson – HDRI (Hurricane Disaster Risk Index)• NOAA, Coastal Services Center –Social Vulnerability Profiling (SVP), Roadmap for Adapting to

Coastal Risk• Rygel, et al. – Social Vulnerability Index

Page 38: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Social Vulnerability Path Forward

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Social Vulnerability Indices: SoVI Developed by the University of South Carolina’s HVRI

• Grouped into 7 components with 29 variables (SoVI 2010):1) Race and class (7 variables); 2) Wealth (5 variables); 3) Elderly residents (6 variables); 4) Hispanic ethnicity (5 variables); 5) Special needs individuals (2 variables); 6) Native American ethnicity (1 variables); and 7) service industry employment (2 variables).

• Data used: five-year American Community Survey estimates (Census), the Geographic Names and Information System (GNIS), and model-based Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE) (Census)

• Comparative index at the county or subcounty level• Positive and Negative component loading

Page 40: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Why Resilience In a traditional Risk calculation, Resilience is

excluded

We argue that Resilience should be included• Overall community risk will be increased if resilience is low• Vulnerability and Resilience are not the same Vulnerability – pre-event Resilience – post-event

Page 41: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Resilience Multiple definitions of resiliency

• Commonly: “The ability of a community exposed to hazards

to adapt, by resisting or changing, in order to reach or maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure”

• Generally: The ability to adequately recover from the

impacts of hazards

There is no standard methodology or framework

No consensus on factors – What makes something ‘resilient’?

In other words – What goes into the funnel?

Demographic

CommunitySocial

Systems

Economic

Infrastructure

Ecological

Transportation

Resiliency

Page 42: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Studies that are wide in scope tend to narrow in focus and vice-versa • Nationwide evaluations only measure singular metrics

Examples: America’s Infrastructure Report Card

Looks only at health of major infrastructure categories Risk Nexus: Enhancing Community Flood Resilience: a way forward

Only looks at risk of flood

• Use of composite metrics is limited to localized evaluations Examples:

Coastal Resilience Index Looks at many variables but only in Gulf of Mexico Region

Framework for Measuring Coastal Hazard Resilience in New Jersey Looks at many variables but some are only pertinent to NJ and Coastal Communities

New Orleans Index Looks mainly at economic resilience of city of New Orleans and surrounding communities

Trending Challenges

Page 43: National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call · 2016-12-19  · National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call. December 19, 2016. 11:00 AM ET/8:00 AM PT . Click here to listen to

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Baseline Resilience Indicators for Counties: HVRI

• 6 category scores, plus total score

• Identified set of quantitative baseline indicators for measuring disaster resilience

• Relationship between resilience, vulnerability, and the relative impact of disasters on rural and non-rural places

Example 1

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University of Missouri IPP Working Paper Takes both a vulnerability

and a resiliency index for each of four factors: Social Economic Environmental Infrastructure

8 Indices total

•Vulnerability Index

•Resiliency Index

•Vulnerability Index

•Resiliency Index

•Vulnerability Index

•Resiliency Index

•Vulnerability Index

•Resiliency Index

Social Economic

InfrastructureEnvironment

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Incorporating the Built Environment Currently identified vulnerability and resiliency indices focus primarily

on socio-demographic factors

Quantitative metrics and tools for assessing built environment on a nationwide scale

• Using the overall infrastructure investment dollars in an area as a measure of potential consequence?

• Ability to incorporate into census tracts on a national scale?

• Current through is to incorporate the Hazus GBS (General Building Stock) Building Value in 2016 dollars

Have discussed building footprints, postal service geocode, parcels, etc.

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Components Vulnerability – Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) procured

from HVRI-University of South Carolina Resilience

• Nation-wide top-down index• Have not received final decision from workgroup yet

Built Environment – FEMAs Hazus GBS• Built Environment Dollar Exposure (adjusted for inflation)• Does this need to be normalized for population?

Hazard – Authoritative Hazard Data Sources

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Calculating Risk Risk = Consequence * Probability Risk = Hazard * (Vulnerability – Resources) Risk = (Hazard * Vulnerability) / Capacity to Cope Risk = Impact * (Threat * Vulnerability)/ Countermeasures

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Composite Risk Score Calculation

Likelihood (Hazard) – is the probability or historic observed frequency of a hazard Consequence (Built Environment + SoVI) – exposure

component of NRI Resilience (TBA) – Communities ability to recover after a

disaster

𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻 + 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑅𝑅𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 − 𝑅𝑅𝐶𝐶𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶

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Composite Hazard Score• Old version of SHEDLUS

Number of Events • Uses small subset of

hazards• Flood• Hail• Lightning• Severe

Thunderstorms• Tornado• Wind• Winter Weather

• Created using the likelihood method outlined in slide 6

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Built Environment Score• Hazus GBS Building

Counts• Recommend using

the Building Values for final index

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Social Vulnerability Score• Social Vulnerability Index

(SoVI) at the county level

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Resilience Score• Baseline Resilience

Indicators for Communities (BRIC)

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Composite Risk Score (H+C)-R

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User Interface & Experience

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1. Develop and save multiple projects2. Credentials3. Select datasets4. Adjust hazard weighting5. Adjust data symbology/transparency6. Perform data analytics7. Export project8. Develop report 9. Create presentation10. Pop-up11. Zoom in and out/Pan12. Make Map

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

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Utilize AGOL Functionality & Tools

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Utilize Change Symbology Style functionality

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Utilize perform analysis on datasets functionality

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1. Download datasets2. Review metadata3. Provide user feedback4. Identify intended audiences for tool5. Explain use cases for tool6. Provide case studies where tool informed

improved decision making7. Identify limitations of data – geographic and

confidence in accuracy8. Tool development Methodology Tab9. Include images, video and other media

1.

2.

3.

4. 5. 6. 7.

9.

8.

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Utilize existing Overview & Background

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Timeline Feb. 2016 – Complete SOW May 2016 – Kick-off working groups June 2016 – Identify Component Data Sources July 2016 – Formalize Data Sources Aug. 2016 – Review and Obtain Data Sept. 2016-Jan 2017 – Data Visualization and Analysis Nov 2016 - March 2017 – Develop Methodology Reports, Future

Maintenance, Update Cycle, and Enhancement Cycle Dec 2016-Feb. 2017 – Develop National Risk Index Tool and User

Experience February. 2017 – Additional User Requirements April-May 2017 – Beta Version of Tool & Testing June 2017 – Complete Tool Development

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Questions

Contacts

Casey ZuzakFEMA Region VIII, Risk Analyst

[email protected]

Cynthia McCoyHazus Modernization Team

FEMA Region X, Risk [email protected]

425-487-2241

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FEMA Map Service Center (MSC) Hazus Download http://msc.fema.gov/portal/resources/hazusAnnouncements on Hazus fema.gov http://www.fema.gov/hazusSoftware and Educational Materials https://training.fema.gov/emi.aspxHazus Hotzone Newsletters https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/101915

Virtual and EMI Course listings flyers are now up on fema.gov http://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/105722

Check to see if you qualify for Hazus Professional or Practitioner Certificationhttp://www.fema.gov/fema-hazus-multi-hazard-training-credentialing-program

DocumentationHazus Download Tutorial & Factsheet http://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/31693Flyers & Handoutshttp://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/105722User Release Noteshttps://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/105743Technical Manualshttp://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/24609

Available Outreach Materials

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Technical SupportHazusHelp Desk: [email protected]

Program ContactScott McAfee: [email protected]

EMI HazusCourse ContactPaul Ganem: [email protected]

Outreach EmailHazusOutreach Team: [email protected]

NEW National Capitol Region Hazus User Group LeadersBill Bohn: [email protected] Zachary Baccala: [email protected]

Hazus Contacts

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Thursday January 26, 2017 at 10:00 AM ET / 7:00AM PT

Look for a new conference call number and webinar format to be emailed with the January invitation.

**Request volunteer for next month’s presentation• HAZUS / Risk Assessment project• HAZUS “How to” presentation

Meeting notes and an updated presentation with audio will be sent out after this callAdjourn

Next Call

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