National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark

Use of models for Maritime spatial

planning

Output from the data modelling workshop in Hamburg

by

Christian Mohn and Karsten Dahl

National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark

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Introduction• What is the goals we would like to reach with regard

to use of models within the framework of BaltSeaPlan

– Can we get a common understanding of the potential and limitations of use of models in MSP

– What output would we (the whole project) like to produce ?

• How to structure the work done at this meeting ?

• Examples of BaltSeaPlan model results

National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark

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Models – what is it good for ?

• Fill gaps between actual measurements• Study specific processes• Scenarios (what if ...?)• Setting ecological targets

– Specific case– Favourable conservation status (sensus Hab- Dir.)– Good environmental status (sensus VFD)– Targets for descriptors (sensus the Marine

Strategy Dir.)

National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark

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BALANCE: Marine landscapes

Based on:• Geology• Salinity• photic/nonphotic zone

BaltSeaPlan:

A more compehensive description of marine landscapes based on: Extension of BALANCE parameters to a longer period (2002-2009) Oxygen Improve acoustic mapping

A question of scale

National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark

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BaltSeaPlan project Output

• Three string strategy

– Direct input in the form of GIS maps and data to be used in the Maritime spatial planning in relevant pilot areas

– A BaltSeaPlan report describing use of models in MSP

– Specific (BaltSeaPlan) scientific publication(s) NERI has an intention to produce one on key environmental parameters and model validation

National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark

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Synopsis for a ”model report”• The reason to use models is to (e.g. fill observational data gaps,

investigate and understand processes, to carry out ‘what happens if’ scenarios, assist setting ecological targets) …

• Definition and short introduction to different types of models

• How can modelled data be integrated in MSP and SEA analysis (tools like MARXAN and ??)

• What questions do planners like to get answered by use of models (development of a set of table)

• Description of successful BaltSeaPlan case stories

• Conclusion and recommendations

National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark

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Example

Question: How do shipping activities influence the marine ecosystem?

Types of model-ling and modelled variables

Related questions Human pressures Natural forcing factors

Area covered at present

Importance Baltic Sea wide / Regional / Local

Existing data source

Data provider

Comments (limitations, requirements, etc.)

Simple “distance models” Disturbance distance of birds

Disturbance, habitat loss

Shipping Military exercises’ Wind parks

Baltic Sea ? NERI Expected for selected bird species and windfarms

Disturbance distance of seals

Disturbance, habitat loss

Shipping Military exercises’

Disturbance distance of harbour porpoise

Disturbance, habitat loss

Shipping Military exercises’

Pilot area 1

Hydrodynamic modelling Bio-connectivity Area of influence

of protected areas, impact of constructions on connectivity ( wind farm case story)

Shipping, maritime constructions (e.g. wind farms)

Current patterns, bottom roughness

Pilot area 1 Baltic wide BSP modelling

NERI Under development

Combined spatial and statistical modelling Oil transportation vs. quality of valuable habitats in sensu the EU Habitat Directive

Impact of oil spills on valuable habitats, sensitivity of valuable habitats to oil spills

Shipping, eutrophication

Salinity, bottom topography, substrate type, wind/ waves, upwelling intensity, ice conditions

Estonian waters

Local but interesting for the Baltic scale

Database of the Estonian Marine Institute

EMI Can be potentially done

Evaluation: …. (Comment - To be further developed, here some keywords: identification of knowledge gaps, limitations of the range of parameters, spatial and temporal resolution, reliability in relation to validation)

National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark

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Tursday session (block III-a) afternoon 16:00-17:00

• Task:To discuss and formulate relavant MSP questions that models might be able to help answeringexample of Question: How does shipping activities influence the marine ecosystem?

• Background information:Draft Synopsis distributed by mail from S-PRO Thursday 6 May

National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark

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Questions/suggestions ?

• Suggestions/comments to – the suggested outputs (maps, common report,

scientific papers) ?

– The draft synopsis for the ”model report” ?

– The content of the tables (e.g. more colums with new information, changed headdings …..?

National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark

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Tursday session (block III-b) afternoon 17:30-18:30

• Task:To discuss and agree on specific Baltic Sea wide model outputs

• Preparation: consider variables, indicators as well as spatial and temporal scale(List available for inspiration)

National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark

Env. parameters:

•Currents•Sea surface height•Temperature•Salinity•Oxygen…

Indicators:

•Variability•Extreme values•Peak events•Specific worst case conditions•Time series•Spatial/temporalaverages•Scenarios…

Temporal and spatial scales:

hourly, daily, monthly, seasonal, annual,individual grid locations, pilot areas, sub-basins, Baltic wide,…

? ?

Model parameters and related products – what is relevant for MSP ?

National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark

7 year (2002 – 2008) mean bottom oxygen

mmol.m3

hypoxic / anoxic conditions

Main areas affected by hypoxia / anoxia

National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark

7 year (2002 – 2008) minimum bottom oxygen

hypoxic / anoxic conditions

Areas sometimes or regularly affected by hypoxia / anoxia mmol.m3

National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark

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Awareness of model limitations

• List of model parameters + spatial, temporal coverage + their relevance for MSP and SEA (which questions can be answered with models – Model table as the baseline information)

• Strategies for model validation (repository of observational data)

• Spatial maps to identify areas where models provide reliable and robust information (model skill, distance to observational data)