1

NATIONAL GRID SCENARIO

REGION HYDRO

THERMAL

NUCLEARR.E.S.

(MNRE)TOTAL

COAL LIGNITE GAS DIESEL TOTAL

NORTHERN 19707.77 49700.20 1580.00 5781.26 0.00 57061.46 1620.00 13633.91 92023.14

WESTERN 7547.50 70328.62 1540.00 10806.49 0.00 82675.11 1840.00 21024.18 113086.79

SOUTHERN 11774.83 42542.02 3240.00 6473.66 761.58 53017.26 3320.00 35971.07 104083.16

EASTERN 4942.12 27201.64 0.00 100.00 0.00 27301.64 0.00 1083.64 33327.40

N.EASTERN 1427.00 520.02 0.00 1775.81 36.00 2331.83 0.00 287.45 4046.28

ISLANDS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.05 40.05 0.00 12.56 52.61

ALL-INDIA 45399.22 190292.50 6360.00 24937.22 837.63 222427.34 6780.00 72012.81 346619.37

% 13.10 54.90 1.83 7.19 0.24 64.17 1.96 20.78 100.00

SECTOR HYDROTHERMAL

TOTAL NUCLEARR.E.S

(MNRE)TOTAL %

COAL LIGNITE GAS DIESEL

STATE 29878.80 62966.50 1290.00 7118.71 363.93 71739.13 0.00 1983.87 103601.80 30

PRIVATE 3394.00 74316.00 1830.00 10580.60 473.70 87200.30 0.00 68501.64 159095.94 46

CENTRAL 12126.42 53010.00 3240.00 7237.91 0.00 63487.91 6780.00 1527.30 83921.63 24

TOTAL 45399.22 190292.50 6360.00 24937.22 837.63 222427.34 6780.00 72012.81 346619.37 100

% 13.10 54.90 1.83 7.19 0.24 64.17 1.96 20.78 100.00

7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 2017-18

2018-19(As on

31.10.2018)

Target 22245 30537.7 40245.2 41109.8 78700 88537 13171 8106.15

Actual 21401.6 16422.6 19119 21180.2 54963.9 99209.47 9505 809.755

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

MW

PLAN

Plan Wise Capacity Addition

Target Actual

YEARTARGET (IN

MW)

ACHIEVEMENT (IN MW)

%

2017-18 13171 9505 72

2018-19* 8106 1470 18

• CAPACITY ADDITION TARGET AND ACHIEVEMENT FOR 2017-18 TO

2018-19*

* As on 31.10.2018

GROWTH OF INSTALLED CAPACITY(SECTOR WISE)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

State 63721 65512 66582 67505 69161 73235 73579 77523 79309 82905 87417 85919 89125 92265 95079 101790 103967

Private 9936 10800 11351 12325 13718 14135 16713 20511 22879 29014 35450 54276 68859 84838 104122 124001 142624

Central 27969 28734 29944 32854 35547 36917 42037 45027 45777 47479 50759 59682 65360 68126 72521 76297 80257

63721 65512 66582 67505 6916173235 73579

77523 7930982905

87417 85919 89125 92265 95079101790103967.28

9936 10800 11351 12325 13718 14135 1671320511 22879

2901435450

54276

68859

84838

104122

124001

142624.01

27969 28734 2994432854 35547 36917

4203745027 45777 47479

50759

5968265360 68126

7252176297

80257.25

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

State Private Central

GROWTH OF ALL INDIA INSTALLED CAPACITY OF HYDRO

508 560 1061 19174124

5907 6966

10833 1138414460

18307 1919421658

26269

34654

38990

44478.42

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

MW

Plan/Year

GROWTH OF INSTALLED CAPACITY(CATEGORY WISE)

PLAN/YEAR THERMALNUCLEAR HYDRO

RES(MNRE)

TOTALCOAL GAS DIESEL TOTAL

End of 9th Plan 62,130.88 11163.1 1134.83 74,428.81 2720 26268.76 1628.39 1,05,045.96

End of 10th

Plan71,121.38 13691.71 1201.75 86,014.84 3900 34,653.77 7,760.6 1,32,329.21

End of 11th

Plan1,12,022.38 18381.05 1199.75 1,31,603.18 4780 38,990.4 24,503.45 1,99,877.03

End of 12th

Plan1,92,162.88 25329.38 837.63 2,18,329.88 6780 44,478.42 57,260.23 3,26,848.53

(FIGURES IN MW)

9

27.7925.24 25.01 26.19

19.5117.68

16.5315.19

11.43 10.49

0.05 1.05 1.555.86

12.26

12.33

12.9213.17

33.44

43.31

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

% Capacity share of Hydro and RES in the Installed Capacity

% Hydro Cap. Share % RES Cap. Share

ALL INDIA POWER SUPPLY POSITION

PERIOD

ANTICIPATED

PEAK

DEMAND(MW)

PEAK

DEMAND

MET(MW)

PEAK DEMANDDEFICIT/SURPLUS

ENERGY

REQUI-

REMENT(MU)

ENERGY

AVAIL-

ABILITY(MU)

ENERGYDEFICIT/SURPLUS

(MW) (- / +)

( % ) (- / +)

(MU) (- / +)

( % ) (- / +)

2012-13 135,453 123,294 -12,159 -9.0 998,114 911,209 -86,905 -8.7

2013-14 135,918 129,815 -6,103 -4.5 1,002,257 959,829 -42,428 -4.2

2014-15 148,166 141,160 -7,006 -4.7 1,068,9431,030,80

0-38,143 -3.6

2015-16 153,366 148,463 -4,903 -3.2 1,114,4081,090,85

0-23,558 -2.1

2016-17 159,542 156,934 -2,608 -1.6 1142,0921,134,63

1-7,461 -0.7

2017-18 164,066 160,752 -3,314 -2.0 1,213,3261,204,69

78,629 -0.7

APR,18-

NOV,18*177,022 175,528 1,494 -0.8 870,809.4 865,475.8 5,334 -0.6

* PROVISIONAL

Average PLF (%) of Gas Bases Plants

55.1855.43

66.97

66.94

62.06

37.25

24.2820.93

23.40 22.86

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

302.54330.63

355.38

367.36386.6

417.56454.6

487.9

535

574.83

574.87608

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

MT

YEAR

Coal consumption (MT)

592 612.5 631.5671.9

717.1 733.54778.63

818.8883.64 914.41

956.641010

10751122 1149

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2 0 0 3 - 0 4 2 0 0 4 - 0 5 2 0 0 5 - 0 6 2 0 0 6 - 0 7 2 0 0 7 - 0 8 2 0 0 8 - 0 9 2 0 0 9 - 1 0 2 0 1 0 - 1 1 2 0 1 1 - 1 2 2 0 1 2 - 1 3 2 0 1 3 - 1 4 2 0 1 4 - 1 5 2 0 1 5 - 1 6 2 0 1 6 - 1 7 2 0 1 7 - 1 8

PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (KWH)

REVIEW OF

12TH PLAN ( 2012-17) CAPACITY ADDITION

14

CONVENTIONAL CAPACITY ADDITION DURING 12TH PLAN (TYPE WISE)

Coal, 83560, 84%

Gas, 6880.5, 7%

Lignite, 1290, 1%

Nuclear, 2000, 2%

Hydro, 5479, 6%

Coal

Gas

Lignite

Nuclear

Hydro

TOTAL 99,209.5 MW

Coal, 69280,

78%

Gas, 2540, 3%

Lignite, 520, 1%

Nuclear, 5300, 6%

Hydro, 10897,

12%

Coal

Gas

Lignite

Nuclear

Hydro

Total 88,537 MW

TARGET ACHIEVEMENT

PRIVATE, 46,825.00,

53%CENTRAL,

26182, 30%

STATE, 15,530.00,

17%

PRIVATE

CENTRAL

STATE

PRIVATE, 55,479.50,

56%

CENTRAL, 20,452.60,

21%

STATE, 23,277.40,

23%

PRIVATE

CENTRAL

STATE

CAPACITY ADDITION DURING 12TH PLAN (SECTOR WISE)

TARGET ACHIEVEMENT

Total 88,537 MW TOTAL 99,209.5 MW

Coal , 192162.88

Gas, 25329.38

Diesel, 837.63

Hydro, 44478.42

Nuclear, 6780 RES, 57260.23

INSTALLED CAPACITY AS ON 31.03.2017

Coal Gas Diesel Hydro Nuclear RES

TOTAL IC: 3,26,848.53 MW

ALL INDIA INSTALLED CAPACITY AS ON 31.03.2017

SECTOR HYDRO THERMAL NUCLEAR R.E.S TOTAL

COAL GAS DIESEL TOTAL (MNRE)

STATE 29683.00 64685.50 7257.95 363.93 72307.38 0.00 1976.90 103967.28

PRIVATE 3144.00 73142.38 10580.60 473.70 84196.68 0.00 55283.33 142624.01

CENTRAL 11651.42 54335.00 7490.83 0.00 61825.83 6780.00 0.00 80257.25

TOTAL 44478.42 192162.88 25329.38 837.63 218329.88 6780 57260.23 326848.53

% 13.61 58.79 7.75 0.26 66.80 2.07 17.52 100.00

(FIGURES IN MW)

SCENARIO FOR 2021-22

YearPeak Demand

(GW)

Energy Requirement

(BU)

2021-22 225.7 1,566

2026-27 298.8 2,047

DEMAND

YearEnergy

Requirement (BU)

Peak Requirement

(GW)

2021-22 206 9

2026-27 273 12

RES CONTRIBUTION IN TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT DURING 2017-22

Total= 175 GW

WIND ENERGY MAP OF INDIA

Unevenly Distributed Renewable Resources

SOLAR MAP

WIND MAP

WIND FARM OUTPUT IN 30 SUCESSIVE DAYS

PATTERN OF SOLAR GENERATION ON AGGRREGATION

RES CONTRIBUTION IN TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT

ScenarioRES IC by

2022 (GW)RES Energy Contribution (BU) in

Total Energy requirement*

I 175 326 (20.88%)

II 150 285 (18.26%)

III 125 244 (15.64%)

Solar16250%

Wind11234%

BioMass37

SHP15

Projected Generation(BU) from RE Sources

Solar Wind BioMass SHP

Projected Generation(BU) from Renewable Energy Sources in 2021-22

TYPICAL ALL INDIA DEMAND & NET LOAD CURVE (2021-22)

25

20

36

75

20

03

24

19

69

01

19

47

71

19

53

54

19

94

12

20

49

88

20

55

98

20

51

94

20

71

61

20

94

87

21

03

31

20

80

52

20

52

04

20

45

51

20

53

89

20

54

10

20

28

24

20

23

70

22

07

98

22

57

51

22

10

86

21

77

90

21

57

02

19

68

01

19

43

56

19

11

76

18

88

76

18

86

36

19

24

83

19

87

26

19

40

79

17

26

74 15

66

13

14

71

47

14

10

50

13

67

40

13

79

38

14

56

95

16

07

06

17

94

18

19

31

63

19

43

62

21

03

23

21

53

26

21

12

14

20

77

65

20

70

85

1,11,000

1,31,000

1,51,000

1,71,000

1,91,000

2,11,000

2,31,000

2,51,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

MW

HOUR

ALL INDIA DEMAND VS. NET DEMAND OF PEAK DAY

ALL INDIA DEMAND NET DEMAND

DUCK CURVE

Key consideration – Hourly variation in energy demand in a day

The daily peak in demand occurs in the evening where solar is not available

Peak:

Min:

7 pm in the evening

3 am in the morning

The demand in non-solar

hours needs to be met with

• Other sources or

• Battery storage

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

GW

Hourly variation in demand in a day

Peak demand

time – 7 pm

Min demand

time – 3 am

Key consideration – Duck curve of energy demand

Requirement of energy from thermal and hydro sources reduces during day time when solar contribution is high

00:0

0

01:0

0

02:0

0

03:0

0

04:0

0

05:0

0

06:0

0

07:0

0

08:0

0

09:0

0

10:0

0

11:0

0

12:0

0

13:0

0

14:0

0

15:0

0

16:0

0

17:0

0

18:0

0

19:0

0

20:0

0

21:0

0

22:0

0

23:0

0

Drop in demand from

thermal and hydro

during day time

Net energy demand from thermal + hydroEnergy received from solar

00:0

0

01:0

0

02:0

0

03:0

0

04:0

0

05:0

0

06:0

0

07:0

0

08:0

0

09:0

0

10:0

0

11:0

0

12:0

0

13:0

0

14:0

0

15:0

0

16:0

0

17:0

0

18:0

0

19:0

0

20:0

0

21:0

0

22:0

0

23:0

0

Solar will increase

in day time

Key consideration – Seasonal variation in energy demandD

em

an

d

Jan DecFeb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Seasonal variation in demand does not match hydro profile necessitating other flexible capacities

Peak:

Min:

October

December

Peak season

Lean season

Hyd

ro

Jan DecFeb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Peak:

Min:

August

January

Peak season

Lean season

Key consideration – Seasonal variation in energy demandW

ind

*S

ola

r*

Jan DecFeb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Jan DecFeb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Seasonal variation in demand does not match solar and wind profile necessitating other flexible capacities

Peak:

Min:

June

January

Peak:

Min:

March

August

*A tentative profile for wind and solar was assumed based on discussions with MNRE however MNRE has been formally requested to provide hourly

generation profile of wind and solar energy sources for 2030 to CEA

Peak season

Lean season

Peak seasonLean season

PROJECTED OFF PEAK/PEAK (DAILY)

(2021-22)

0.4000

0.5000

0.6000

0.7000

0.8000

0.9000

1.000001

-Ap

r-21

11-A

pr-

21

21-A

pr-

21

01-M

ay-2

1

11-M

ay-2

1

21-M

ay-2

1

31-M

ay-2

1

10-J

un

-21

20-J

un

-21

30-J

un

-21

10-J

ul-

21

20-J

ul-

21

30-J

ul-

21

09-A

ug

-21

19-A

ug

-21

29-A

ug

-21

08-S

ep

-21

18-S

ep

-21

28-S

ep

-21

08-O

ct-

21

18-O

ct-

21

28-O

ct-

21

07-N

ov

-21

17-N

ov

-21

27-N

ov

-21

07-D

ec

-21

17-D

ec

-21

27-D

ec

-21

06-J

an-2

2

16-J

an-2

2

26-J

an-2

2

05-F

eb

-22

15-F

eb

-22

25-F

eb

-22

07-M

ar-2

2

17-M

ar-2

2

27-M

ar-2

2

Pe

ak V

alu

e/

Off

Pe

ak v

alu

e(2

4 h

ou

rs)

Day of the year

Peak /Off Peak ComparisonTotal Demand & Net Load

Total Demand

Net Load

ALL INDIA LOAD DURATION CURVES (2021-22)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

1,00,000

1,20,000

1,40,000

1,60,000

1,80,000

2,00,000

2,20,000

2,40,000

0.0

%4

.2%

8.4

%1

2.6

%1

6.8

%2

1.0

%2

5.2

%2

9.4

%3

3.6

%3

7.8

%4

2.0

%4

6.2

%5

0.4

%5

4.6

%5

8.8

%6

3.0

%6

7.2

%7

1.4

%7

5.6

%7

9.8

%8

4.0

%8

8.2

%9

2.4

%9

6.6

%

MW

Total Demand (MW)

2,25,751

1,58,785

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

1,00,000

1,20,000

1,40,000

1,60,000

1,80,000

2,00,000

2,20,000

2,40,000

0.0

%3

.9%

7.8

%1

1.7

%1

5.6

%1

9.5

%2

3.4

%2

7.3

%3

1.2

%3

5.1

%3

9.0

%4

2.9

%4

6.8

%5

0.7

%5

4.6

%5

8.5

%6

2.4

%6

6.3

%7

0.2

%7

4.1

%7

8.0

%8

1.9

%8

5.8

%8

9.7

%9

3.6

%9

7.5

%

Titl

e

Net Demand (MW)

2,15,326

71,146

44400

54400

64400

74400

84400

94400

104400

114400

124400

01

-04

-20

21

21

-04

-20

21

11

-05

-20

21

31

-05

-20

21

20

-06

-20

21

10

-07

-20

21

30

-07

-20

21

19

-08

-20

21

08

-09

-20

21

28

-09

-20

21

18

-10

-20

21

07

-11

-20

21

27

-11

-20

21

17

-12

-20

21

06

-01

-20

22

26

-01

-20

22

15

-02

-20

22

07

-03

-20

22

27

-03

-20

22

MW

Total VRE(Solar+Wind)Peak of each day

2021-22

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

1

18

35

52

69

86

10

3

12

0

13

7

15

4

17

1

18

8

20

5

22

2

23

9

25

6

27

3

29

0

30

7

32

4

34

1

35

8

MW

Days of the Year

VRE Peak of each dayDuration Curve

2021-22

1

42

100

202

20

0

50

100

150

200

250

140000 - 155000 155000 - 170000 170000 - 185000 185000 - 200000 200000 - 216000

No

. of

Day

s/ye

ar

MW

Daily Peak Demand (Net) Distribution2021-22

SCENARIO FOR 2022

YearPeak Demand

(GW)

Energy Requirement

(BU)

2021-22 225.7 1,566

DEMAND( CAGR 6.18%)

YearsCoal

RES Capacity by March,2022(MW)

Retirement of Coal Based Plants

(2017-22) (MW)

Hydro Nuclear Gas

2017-22 6,823 3,300 406 47,855 175,000 22,716

Capacity addition

Additional Coal based capacityActually required during 2017-22 (MW)*

Coal Based Generation (Gross) (GWh) Expected PLF% during 2021-22During 2017-22*

6445 1072 56.5%

*Actual coal based capacity addition required during 2017-22 is 6,445 even though 47,855 MW are expected to come between 2017-22.However, this addition of 47,855 MW of coal based capacity during 2017-22 would bring down the PLF as indicated in the result.

8080420

6210 5510

15290

25640

25737

1300

6455

17101

19195

12350

13771

1660

2016

12745

10891 3470

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

0-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90

MW

PLF(%)

EXPECTED SECTOR-WISE PLF OF COAL BASED PLANTS IN 2021-22

CENTRAL STATE PRIVATE

33059

3010

16145

25895

3352527910

15440

18180

22620

21060

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

0-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90

MW

PLF(%)

EXPECTED PLF OF SUB-CRITICAL AND SUPER CRITICAL PLANTS IN 2021-22

SUB-CRITICAL SUP-CRITICAL

Projected Generation(MU) and PLF(%) from Conventional Sources in 2021-22 (Base Case)

Coal107278%

Gas836%

Nuclear635%

Hydro15611%

Projected Generation(BU)

Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro

ALL FIGURES IN BU

56.5

36.731.9

70.9

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Coal + Lignite Gas Hydro Nuclear

PLF

%

Conventional Generation Source

PLF %

SCENARIO FOR 2027

YearPeak Demand

(GW)

Energy Requirement

(BU)

2026-27 298.8 2,047

DEMAND( CAGR 5.51%)

Years

Coal based Capacity under construction

during 2017-22 (MW)

RESCapacity

by March,2027(MW)

Retirement of Coal Based Plants

(2022-27) (MW)

Hydro Nuclear Gas

2022-27 12,000 6,800 0 47,855 275,000 25,572

Capacity addition considered

Additional Coal based capacityRequirement during 2022-27 (MW)

Coal Based Generation (Gross) (GWh) Expected PLF% during 2026-27

46,420 1259 60.5%

COAL REQUIREMENT

(2021-22 & 2026-27)(BASE CASE)

Description Unit 2021-22 2026-27

RES IC GW 175 275

Total coal based generation* BU 1118.8 1336.1

Total Coal Requirement MT 685 827

*Considering 30% reduction in Hydro Generation assuming failure of monsoon

Our renewable progress so far and 2022 targets

Coal + Lignite

58%Gas 7%

Nuclear2%

Hydro 13%

Solar6%

Wind10%

Other RE4%

Capacity share 2018

Coal + Lignite

45%

Gas 5%

Nuclear2%

Hydro 11%

Solar21%

Wind13%

Other RE3%

Capacity share 2022

Source Capacities (GW) 2018

Coal + Lignite 197Gas 25

Nuclear 7Hydro 45

Solar 22Wind 34Other RE 13Total 343

Source Capacities (GW) 2022

Coal + Lignite 217Gas 26

Nuclear 10Hydro 51

Solar 100Wind 60Other RE 15Total 479

Projected Installed Capacity(Base Case)

March,2022 March,2027

Coal+Lignite2,17,302

45%

Gas25,736

5%

Hydro51,301 11%

Nuclear10,080

2%

Renewables1,75,000

37%

TOTAL 4,79,419 MW

Coal+Lignite2,38,150

39%

Gas25,735

4%Hydro63,301 10%

Nuclear16,880

3%

Renewables2,75,000

44%

TOTAL 6,19,066 MW

ALL FIGURES IN MW

India’s commitments towards a renewable future

India submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the UNFCCC Secretariat highlighting its

pathways to sustainable development.

To adopt a climate friendly and a cleaner path than the one followed hitherto by others at corresponding level of economic development.

1

The following INDCs specifically calls for actions from the Ministry of Power

To reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35 percent by 2030 from 2005 level.

2

To achieve about 40 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel based energy resources by 2030.

3

* Generation from RES also included.

43

India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)40 % cumulative power installed capacity from non-fossil fuels by 2030.

YearLikely IC

(GW)Likely IC of

Fossil Fuel (GW)

Likely IC of Non-Fossil Fuel

(GW)

% of Non-Fossil Fuel in IC

March2022

479.4 243.0 236.4 49.3%

March2027

619.0 263.9 355.1 57.4%

FUTURE CHALLENGES

•RES INTEGRATION – ADEQUATE TRANSMISSION CORRIDOR, FORCASTING OF DEMAND AND RES GENERATION

•FLEXIBILITY IN CONVENTIONAL GENERATION- FREQUENT START/STOP, RAMPING UP AND RAMPING DOWN OF GENERATION

•ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE – RETIREMENT OF AGED COAL-BASED PLANTS

•FIVE MINUTES SCHEDULING

• INTRODUCTION OF ANCILIARY SERVICES

•MERIT BASED SCHEDULING AT PAN INDIA LEVEL

•REDUCTION OF AT&C LOSS – SMART GRID

•CAPACITY AUGUMENTATION OF HYDRO- CHANGE IN HYDRO POLICY

•MANAGEMENT OF STRESSED ASSETS – ABSENCE OF LONG-TERM PPAs

•LOW PLF OF THERMAL PLANTS

•ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF GASES FOR GAS BASED PLANTS

Thank You

Evolution of the Grid

46

Pre 1991:

Five Regional Grids - Five Frequencies

October 1991: East and Northeast synchronized

March 2003: West synchronized with East & Northeast

August 2006: North synchronized with Central Grid

Dec 2013:

All India Synchronized Grid

Maps not to scale

Electricity Act, 2003, Open

AccessMerchant

Power

Merging of Markets, Power

Exchanges

Addition of large 500 MW & above gen. units and 765 kV trans. Lines, Ultra Mega Power Projects

Changing load profileIntegration of RenewablesNeed for Flexible Systems

47

Peculiarities of Regional Grids in India

SOUTHERN

REGION

WESTERNREG

ION

EASTERN

REGION

NORTHERN

REGION NORTH-EASTERN

REGION

REGIONAL GRIDS

Deficit Region

Snow fed – run-of –the –river hydro

Highly weather sensitive load

Adverse weather conditions: Fog & Dust Storm

Very low load

High hydro potential

Evacuation problems

Industrial load and agricultural load

Low load

High coal reserves

Pit head base load plants

High load (40% agricultural load)

Monsoon dependent hydro

CHICKEN-NECK

4922-Jan-19 POWERGRID - NRLDC 49

Spatial Distribution Of Load

High loaddensity

Resource rich areas

73.676.8 78.6 77.2 77.48 75.07 73.32

69.9365.55 64.46 62.28 60.01 60.67 61.14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

PLF

YEAR

THERMAL PLF (%)

Increasing Trend in Per Capita Consumption in India

592 612.5 631.5671.9

717.1 733.54778.63

818.8883.64 914.41

956.641010

10751122 1149

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2 0 0 3 - 0 4 2 0 0 4 - 0 5 2 0 0 5 - 0 6 2 0 0 6 - 0 7 2 0 0 7 - 0 8 2 0 0 8 - 0 9 2 0 0 9 - 1 0 2 0 1 0 - 1 1 2 0 1 1 - 1 2 2 0 1 2 - 1 3 2 0 1 3 - 1 4 2 0 1 4 - 1 5 2 0 1 5 - 1 6 2 0 1 6 - 1 7 2 0 1 7 - 1 8

PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (KWH)

RAMP DURATION CURVES

-32,500-30,000-27,500-25,000-22,500-20,000-17,500-15,000-12,500-10,000

-7,500-5,000-2,500

02,5005,0007,500

10,00012,50015,00017,50020,00022,50025,000

0%

5%

9%

14

%

18

%

23

%

27

%

32

%

36

%

41

%

54

%

50

%

45

%

41

%

36

%

32

%

27

%

23

%

18

%

13

%

9%

4%

MW

/HR

Ramping Duration Curve

(Total Demand)

-32,500-30,000-27,500-25,000-22,500-20,000-17,500-15,000-12,500-10,000

-7,500-5,000-2,500

02,5005,0007,500

10,00012,50015,00017,50020,00022,50025,000

0%

5%

9%

14

%1

8%

23

%2

7%

32

%3

6%

41

%5

4%

50

%4

5%

41

%3

6%

32

%2

7%

23

%1

8%

13

%9

%4

%

MW

/HR

Ramping Duration Curve

(Net Demand)

4400

14400

24400

34400

44400

54400

64400

74400

84400

01

-04

-20

21

11

-04

-20

21

21

-04

-20

21

01

-05

-20

21

11

-05

-20

21

21

-05

-20

21

31

-05

-20

21

10

-06

-20

21

20

-06

-20

21

30

-06

-20

21

10

-07

-20

21

20

-07

-20

21

30

-07

-20

21

09

-08

-20

21

19

-08

-20

21

29

-08

-20

21

08

-09

-20

21

18

-09

-20

21

28

-09

-20

21

08

-10

-20

21

18

-10

-20

21

28

-10

-20

21

07

-11

-20

21

17

-11

-20

21

27

-11

-20

21

07

-12

-20

21

17

-12

-20

21

27

-12

-20

21

06

-01

-20

22

16

-01

-20

22

26

-01

-20

22

05

-02

-20

22

15

-02

-20

22

25

-02

-20

22

07

-03

-20

22

17

-03

-20

22

27

-03

-20

22

06

-04

-20

22

MW

Daily Peak solar & Wind 2021-22Solar Wind

Key consideration – Hourly variation in energy demand in a day

The daily peak in demand occurs in the evening where solar is not available

Peak:

Min:

7 pm in the evening

3 am in the morning

The demand in non-solar hours

needs to be met with

• Other sources or

• Battery storage

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

GW

Hourly variation in demand in a day

Peak demand

time – 7 pm

Min demand

time – 3 am

Key consideration – Duck curve of energy demand

Requirement of energy from thermal and hydro sources reduces during day time when solar contribution is high

00

:00

01

:00

02

:00

03

:00

04

:00

05

:00

06

:00

07

:00

08

:00

09

:00

10

:00

11

:00

12

:00

13

:00

14

:00

15

:00

16

:00

17

:00

18

:00

19

:00

20

:00

21

:00

22

:00

23

:00

Drop in demand from

thermal and hydro

during day time

Net energy demand from thermal + hydroEnergy received from solar

00

:00

01

:00

02

:00

03

:00

04

:00

05

:00

06

:00

07

:00

08

:00

09

:00

10

:00

11

:00

12

:00

13

:00

14

:00

15

:00

16

:00

17

:00

18

:00

19

:00

20

:00

21

:00

22

:00

23

:00

Solar will increase

in day time

Key consideration – Seasonal variation in energy demandD

eman

d

Jan DecFeb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Seasonal variation in demand does not match hydro profile necessitating other flexible capacities

Peak:

Min:

October

December

Peak season

Lean season

Hyd

ro

Jan DecFeb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Peak:

Min:

August

January

Peak season

Lean season

Key consideration – Seasonal variation in energy demandW

ind

*So

lar*

Jan DecFeb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Jan DecFeb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Seasonal variation in demand does not match solar and wind profile necessitating other flexible capacities

Peak:

Min:

June

January

Peak:

Min:

March

August

*A tentative profile for wind and solar was assumed based on discussions with MNRE however MNRE has been formally requested to provide hourly generation

profile of wind and solar energy sources for 2030 to CEA

Peak season

Lean season

Peak seasonLean season