National Hydrometeorological

Services (NHMS): An Assessment of the

Philippines

Consultation Meeting, 30 April 2012, AIM, Makati, Philippines

Tasks undertaken• An update and review of the draft report of MMHS

under the project “Strengthening Meteorological and Hydrological Services in East Asia”• Mar-Apr 2012; UNISDR AP, Bangkok• PAGASA’s collaboration <Dr. Nathaniel

Servando/Nancy Lance, Planning>• Review by staff led by Dr. Susan Espinueva, 19 Apr• Interview with DOST/PCIEERD <Raul Sabularse>, 23

Apr• Review of socio-economic analysis <Danilo Israel>

Analysis according to TOR 1. Review existing capacity and infrastructure

issues;2. Assess services needs of user community3. Identify the existing meteorological and

relevant data collection and exchange procedures

4. Identify relevant data-sharing protocols and requirements, considering, standards for hydrological data exchange within and among states;

Analysis according to TOR 5. Prepare two investment scenarios for the region

assuming that: (a) protocols will be established whereby data are fully and freely, and shared among the member states, and (b) data sharing as it occurs today;

6. Prepare data sharing requirements and standards based on their needs and assuming that capacity will be improved;

7. Prepare detailed investment plans for each country program;

8. Identify potential partnerships between national and international weather agencies based on the technical assistance needs identified in the study.

Outline-Draft report (ca 2011)• Executive Summary• Philippine Context• Results of cost benefit analysis• User needs assessment• Philippine NHMS: PAGASA

- Organization/Resources - Current services- Network of monitoring stations

Outline (Cont’d)• Philippines: NHMS (Continuation)• Maintenance, calibration and manufacturing of

monitoring facilities• Numerical weather prediction (NWP)• Information, Communication Technology (ICT)• National & international cooperation and data

sharing• Development plans proposed by PAGASA• Summary• Recommendations to strengthen NHMS services

• Project proposal

Report: Table of contents• Executive Summary • Philippines in a Nutshell

(description, economic overview, climate , disaster risk profile, institutional and planning context)

• Socio-economic Benefits of Hydro-Meteorological Services

• User Needs Assessment of Hydro-meteorological Services & Information

• The National Meteorological & Hydrological Services in the Philippines

• Current Services of the NHMS • PAGASAs Network for Monitoring

Stations (Surface, remote sensing observations)

• Maintenance, Calibration & Manufacturing of Monitoring Facilities

• Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)• Information , Communication

Technology (ICT) • National & International Cooperation

and Data Sharing• Development Plans Proposed by

PAGASA • Summary• Recommendations to Strengthen the

Meteorological & Hydrological Services

• Project Proposal • Persons Met During the Mission • References • Appendices

General observations since completion of draft• Significant changes in legal and institutional

framework in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation/mitigation; mainstreaming • Enhanced weather forecasting capacity in terms of

hardware • Evolving arrangements in the process of fast tracking

mitigation measures for flood and hydromet events• Heightened socio-political dimensions relative to

awareness level and Philippine development planning

Disasters and NHMS

• All sectors realized • the importance of HMS• the need to share data and other

information to other NMHS’ in the region.

• Establishment of mechanism for public-private partnership in disaster reconstruction

Assessment of NHMS in the Philippines

• Automation program to address need for accurate and frequent updates on severe weather• Doppler radar installation Transport,

construction, industry• Tailor-made forecast Agriculture

• Upgrading of facilities increase value of forecast products• Pursuing commercialization of some specialized

products to private companies and others (aviation, shipping, etc.)

PAGASA as NHMS: National set-up•Mandate: to provide weather, climate,

agro-met and hydrological services in the Philippines for public safety and in support of economic development; to disseminate official time and provide basic astronomical services.

PAGASA as NHMS

• Operates & maintains 98% of all hydromet observation networks- aviation met service offices in major airports- Weather, climate and hydrology within PAGASA

headquarters• Official forecasts, warnings, advisories, outlooks,

press releases on severe weather & extreme events (tropical cyclone, flood, drought, El Nino/La Nina

PAGASA plans

• Updated Strategic Plan (SP) in line with WMO Regional Association V SP 2012-2015 <SP2008-2012 Output of 2011 SP workshop>• Long-term Plan/PAGASA Onwards 2020• R&D-Operations and Services Framework• Investment Portfolio – annual review

Planning context

• Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2011-2016• National S&T Plan• National Disaster Risk Reduction &

Management Plan 2011-2028• National Climate Change Action Plan 2011-

2038 • Pres. Aquino’s 16-point agenda

Philippine Context-PAGASA input• Climate projections using PRECIS/Hadley

Centre• Second National Communication to IPCCC•Weather & climate-dependent economic

sectors, 61% of GDP: manufacturing <23%>, agriculture <14%>, post/telecommunication <5%>, construction <4.5%>, fishing <4.3%> forestry, land transport, electricity/gas/water supply, mining/quarrying, hotels/restaurants.

Profile of PAGASA• “Aging” workforce: 873 staff

- 82, R&D; 11, education/training - 11, PhD; 50, MSc: 5, Diploma • 5 Regional Service Division • Modernization program <3-year plan>:• 14 Doppler radars; > 150 automatic weather stations

(AWS); 100 automatic rain gauges (ARGs)• 2 Aviation Weather Observing Systems (AWS), 2 marine

meteorological buoys, 1 wind profiler, 6 upper air stations, forecast automation

• Uninterrupted service 24/7/365 basis• Annual budget: Php817 million (2011) __% increase from

2010

Current Services of PAGASA• Weather services• Early warning System • Climatological and agrometeorological services • Hydrological services • Marine services • Environmental services • R&D based Expert services • Information services• Library services• Training services• Internet• Partnerships with other agencies to expand observing

network & data sharing

PAGASA’s modernization

• Development of a 3-year modernization plan• Additional state-of-the-art equipment,

instruments, machines, computers & other facilities• Manpower training & human resource dev.• Strengthening Regional Weather Service Centers• Greater public awareness through education

projects/programs

PAGASA’s Collaboration

• Designated WMO Regional Training Center for South Pacific• Member of Typhoon Committee• UNO: WMO, ICAO, UNESCO, UNDP, UNESCAP• Links with UNEP, IPCC, APCN, ICTP, IOC, COST<

APCC, RIMES• Data sharing/Research/Training MOU with

NHMCs of Korea, Viet Nam, Mongola• JAMSTEC, DWD

User needs assessment: Sectors• Status, government measures• Agriculture, environmental

protection/forest management, water resources, energy production & distribution, transport, construction, land use & planning, recreation/tourism, health, insurance, disaster reduction, military, climate change, media

PAGASA Gaps/Limitations

• Manual production/dissemination of hydromet forecasting & warning services needing data integration & processing• Online hydromet obervations very limited in

Visayas & Mindanao• Quality of information is fair because of limited

automatic editing and production system• No nowcasts due to lack of appropriate

equipment & inadequate skills of technical staff.

Institutional capacities: gaps & needs (Table 12.1)

Issue Gaps and needs

Data products

- Data rescue of historical climate data is urgently needed-High performance Data Quality Management system to support NWP system-Integrated database system for NWP data assimilation-Replacement and timely calibration schedule of met. and climate Instruments in some remote stations-Reliable and low-cost observation data communication system needed for efficiency

Hazard analysis

-Sufficient number of expert in disaster mitigation and risk assessment -Applied R&D products for domestic weather and climate forecasting still relatively limited

Institutional capacities: gaps & needs (Table 12.1)

Issue Gaps and needs

Forecasts & warnings

- High performance NWP assimilation system in place and operational- Radar and satellite data assimilation and remote sensing-based observation product development- Development of human resources in weather and climate modeling (NWP and climate models) - Flood forecasts showing height and limits of inundation areas- Extended hydrological forecasts- Tailor made forecasts for various sectors

EWS expertise & advisory service

Continuous upgrading the skills of PAGASA’s operational staffs to utilize and manage the latest technology instruments and systems

Institutional capacities

No gaps/needs articulated for • Cooperation with other technical agencies• International• National

• Dissemination mechanisms• Communication and media

Cooperation with other technical agencies

National level• Various Departments:

Disaster Risk Reduction and Management, Public Works, Energy, • Agriculture, Health, • Transport, • National Mapping, • Mines &Geoscience, • Civil Defense, etc. • Local/provincial governments• Universities: University of the

Philippines, Ateneo de Manila

International level• ASEAN’s SCMG• JAMSTEC Japan• KOICA Korea• KMA Korea• JICA Japan• JMA Japan• CMA China• DMHCC Vietnam• TECO Taiwan• Norad Norway• UNDP• AusAID• USTDA• USAID• ADPC• RIMES

PAGASA’s Skill Level: Distribution of Rating per Level

2 (5%)

6 (17%)

19 (53%)

9 (25%)

Level 1: Very bad

Level 2: Poor

Level 3: Moderate

Level 4: Good

36 parameters, 5 levels of rating

PAGASA’s Skill Level

Disaste

r red

uction

Data sh

aring/G

TS

Networki

ng to re

gional

hydro

met org

Internati

onal co

operation

Wea

ther forec

ast

No. of W

F pro

ductsNW

P

Hydro

logical

forecast

Agromete

orologic

al ser

vices

Automated pro

cessin

g/visu

alizati

on

Climate

chan

geR&D

Support

of R&D to

main

lines

Surfa

ce syn

op network

Upper-air

data

Radar

data

Lightning d

etecti

on

Hydro

logical

obs. Netw

ork

Envir

onmental

obs.

Mainten

ance

& calib

ration

Communcation sy

stem

Data m

anag

emen

t

Web

page

Human re

source

s

Level

of staff

educati

on

Training p

rogra

mme

Competitive

ness on la

bour mark

et

Manag

emen

t

Organiza

tion

Competitive

ness

Public vis

ibility

Public ap

preciati

on

Customer

orientati

on

Cooperation w

ith m

edia

Market

position

Fores

een possi

bility f

or susta

inable

devt

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

PAGASA’s Skills: Level rating

• Level 1 (Very bad): 2/36• Lightning detection; environmental

observation• Level 2 (Poor): 6/36• Networking to regional hydromet organizations• Automated processing & visualization• R&D• Radar data• Communication system• Data management

PAGASA’s Skill Level Rating- Disaster reduction - Weather forecast - No. of WF products - NWP - Hydrological forecast - Agrometeorological

services - Support of R&D to main

lines - Surface synop network - Hydrological obs. Network - Maintenance & calibration

• Human resources• Level of staff

education Training programme Competitiveness on labour market • Management • Organization • Public appreciation• Customer orientation• Market position

Level 3 (Moderate): 19/36

PAGASA’s Skill Level

• Data sharing/GTS • International cooperation • Climate change • Upper-air data • Webpage • Competitiveness • Public visibility • Cooperation with media • Foreseen possibility for sustainable devt

Level 4 (Good)

PAGASA Vision

• Leading role in hydromet EWS• Provide public access to quality products• Strong advocacy in climate change adaptation• Excellence in tropical cycle forecasting (SEA)• A strong & dynamic organization with inspired &

dedicated workforce• Well-managed resources

Project Proposal

• 5-year investment plan• To improve PAGASA’s services for the benefit of

the various socio-economic sectors• Reflects the large increase in operational cost to

the government as a results of its modernization• DRR that emphasizes coordination and

integrated system of information• User-centered

Integration of forecasts, warnings and related information

PAGASA’s Commitment

• Enhancement of weather forecasting capabilities• HRDP- Improving capacities of PAGASA

forecasting personnel• Strengthening flood monitoring, forecasting &

warning system• R&D: Strengthening support to climate change

adaptation related measures• DRR related S&T program/awareness promotion

(incl. establishing a National Meteorological & Climate Center)

PAGASA’s Commitment: Enhancement of Weather Forecasting Capabilities

• Automated Data Integration, Analysis and Display System for Timely and Reliable Weather Information for Disaster Mitigation and Decision Support • Doppler Weather Radar Program • Rolling-out of Automated Weather Stations, Rain

gauges, and Water level sensors • Warning system for Marine Navigation and

Transport • Redundant Communication System

Doppler radar network showing existing and under implementation

Source: Engineering Technical Services Division, PAGASA.

Components

• International cooperation of experts• Modernization of on-going projects (flood

forecasting, radar, wind profiler, marine buoy, AWOS, AWS, high-speed PC cluster computing system, upgrading of tecommunication system, acquisition of equipment• Specialized training involving strengthening of

cooperation in SEA for data sharing, information exchange and research collaboration

Socio-economic value• For a 20% reduction in damages, improvements

from 2010-2020 yield discounted benefits = USD173.70 million

Option Costs (USD million) Cost/benefit ratio

Stand alone 32.70 1:6.3

With regional cooperation

27.14 1:6.4

Note: (1) C/B ratios are inferior to the 1:7 ratio set by WMO.(2) Regional system is more desirable.(3) C/B ratios would improve if indirect benefits and benefits beyond 2029 are included.

Financing

• National government & foreign donors• Government counterpart funds &

technical personnel in project implementation• Government budget allocation for O&M

costs

Concluding remarks

• The positive direction taken by PAGASA and other stakeholders to reduce disaster risk through hydromet services is proper in the context of WMO. It shall need further tweaking in terms of two major streams: (1) Philippine government’s overall development, and (2) regional demands as evidenced by weather extremes and climate variability. • There is need for a constructive regular dialogue

among the major stakeholders from S&T community and users.

Next Steps

• A regional system to enhance early warning and disaster risk reduction is mainly beneficial to the Philippines in terms of human resource development. • The Philippines can contribute to

data/information sharing in the region needing further dialogue among relevant stakeholders.