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1
National Opinion Poll: April 2018- for Publication on 6th May
41111511/PM
2
Introduction
A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 6th
May 2018.
The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with Government and party leaders, the confidence
and supply agreement, attitudes towards the upcoming Referendum on the 8th Amendment, including voting
intentions and strength of convictions.
Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+.
Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile.
1,003 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide.
Interviews were carried out between 18th – 30th April 2018.
Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+.
The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1%.
3
Introduction
The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/ Kantar
Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 1,003 adults representative of
the approximate 3.57 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in-
home at 64 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this
opinion poll is +/- 3.1%
The 1,003 interviews in the poll were carried out between 18th – 30th April 2018.
The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO
(European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report
may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Kantar Millward
Brown and The Sunday Independent.
© Kantar Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent 2018.
POLL
The Results
5
Nothing can be taken for granted as Referendum Poll shows Narrow Gap
This latest Sunday Independent / Kantar Millward Brown opinion poll, conducted over 12 days up to and including last Monday, will certainly focus the
minds on both sides of the 8th debate. It will serve as a clarion call to all, as it illustrates that with three more weeks to go, there is still plenty of hard
graft to be done, and nothing can be taken for granted.
The Repeal side, for so long in the ascendency, may be somewhat alarmed to see that the gap between both sides is relatively narrow.
Traditionally polls on plebiscites are reported on by those decided in their intentions – excluding the don’t knows. By this measure, the Yes side leads
by 57:43. However, for this referendum, this is at best simplistic, and arguably quite dangerous.
Looking at the overall electorate, 45pc are in favour of repeal versus 34pc against. That leaves a hardly insignificant 22pc of the pot left to play for
(18pc undecided and 4pc refusing to say).
The undecided, and the turnout, will dictate the final score of this referendum, although at this juncture, it still looks certain that the amendment will be
carried.
Focussing first on these floating voters, there is a school of thought that in referenda, those that are unsure tend to opt for the status quo. This well
may be the case in terms of more complex, legislative votes (think Lisbon or Nice before it), but this time it is different. It would seem that many are
genuinely unsure of what the best action should be (this also is evident among those that have made their decision).
In addition, we have to assume that there is a “Shy Tory” effect for some – they may well have made up their mind, but for their own reasons, are not
prepared to disclose it. For these reasons alone, there is still plenty of fire left in this campaign.
One of the more pressing issues seems to be the proposal of unrestricted access to abortion to up 12 weeks. There have been some shifts in opinion
since we last asked the question in February. Combined, those stating that the proposal is about right/does not go far enough, has risen to 53pc
(previously being 48pc). But this still leaves a combined 47pc either having reservations or undecided – From a statistical point of view, this is classic
margin of error territory.
6
Nothing can be taken for granted as Referendum Poll shows Narrow Gap (cont’d)
Those most likely to feel that this proposal goes too far tend to be older (55+), more rural, and supporters of Fianna Fail. In contrast, those aged 25-34
and Dubliners are most in favour. A slim majority of females of traditional child bearing age (18-44) feel that the proposal is about right (51pc).
Looking at the headline figure in more detail, there are some striking, if not altogether unsurprising, trends. There is a stark generational divide in
terms of those who are in favour of repeal. Over half (56pc) of those under 35 are in favour of the amendment, versus just one in three of those aged
55+. Of course, the implication here is not so much in terms of voting intent, but rather propensity to vote.
Traditionally turnout on the day is higher among certain cohorts, namely older, more affluent and rural voters. Turnout will be critical. We saw in the
Same Sex Marriage referendum, held nearly three years to the day from this referendum, that the youth vote was galvanised to vote on the day. One
suspects it will be no different this time out.
A more interesting finding is the stark East/West divide. Dublin and the Eastern seaboard has traditionally been considered more liberal, and this poll
reinforces that view. 51pc of Dubliners, and 46pc of Leinster residents are in favour of repeal, versus 41pc and 37pc of Munster and Conn/Ulster
residents respectively. In some respects this East/West divide is symptomatic of rural depopulation.
Among supporters of the various parties, the standout figure is that of Fianna Fail supporters. They mirror the flux that is so apparent within their
parliamentary party. While supporters of all other main parties tow the party line, and are in favour of repeal, Fianna Fail supporters are divided. 39pc
are in favour, versus 41pc against.
On the face of it, all things point to a Yes vote. However, the final three weeks will still be critical. It is by no means certain that even those who have
made up their minds are steadfast in their view – one in six overall (17pc) have the potential to waver. 14pc either have some reservations/doubts
(16pc of Yes voters vs 11pc of No voters) and a further 3pc are not certain at all (2pc vs 4pc respectively).
Effective communications over the next three weeks will be key for both sides, in order to attract the endorsement of a somewhat dubious electorate.
National Opinion Poll:Party Support Trended Questions
8
Party Support – First Preference – Including Don’t Knows
Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate
would you give your first preference vote?
Opinion PollApril 2018Including
Don’t Knows%
Opinion PollApril 2018Excluding
Don’t Knows%
26
7
24
3
18
243
14
Independents/others
GeneralElection Result
2016%
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Green Party
Renua IrelandAAA-PBP
Social Democrats
28
4
22
2
18
7
20
34
5
27
3
22
8Others
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Green Party
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003)
Others
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Don’t know
Green Party
9
Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)
Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate
would you give your first preference vote?
Base: All giving a first preference
26 29 27 28 27 27 30 27 29 25 25 22 22 25 25 2924
29 27 26 30 29 2530
36 34
2928
25 27 27 2426
2122
20 2120 18
19 19
2323
2422 24
26 27 3329
2827
19 1921 19 19 21
1622 20
24 22 2621
26 24
2121
2121
14
20 20 20 2020 22
8 88 10 9 9 12
8 6 7 9 7
5
6 86
7
76
7
7 8 6 74 5
1 12
1 1 11
2 2 1 1 1
2
1 3 11
11
3
3 2 2 2 2 318 15 18 14 17 18 15
20 21 23 23 2332
23 20 20 2419
22 27
14 15 14 13 11 8
Independents/others*
Green Party
Labour
Sinn Féin
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
* Includes all other parties
Independents/Others:October
2016February
2017July2017
February2018
April2018
AAA-PBP 2% 3% 1% 1% 1%
Social Democrats 1% 2% * 1% *
Independent Candidates/ Other
Parties6% 4% 7% 6% 2%
Independent Alliance 5% 5% 5% 3% 5%
June20th–28th
2013%
Aug3rd-12th
2013%
Aug17th-27th
2013%
Sep13th–25th
2013%
Sep 30th -
Oct 9th
%
Nov 3rd-13th
%
Jan15th-24th
2014 %
Feb19th-28th
2014 %
Apr5th-15th
2014 %
Jul18th–30th
2014 %
Sep9th-18th
2014 %
Oct 21st–31st
2014%
Dec8th-18th
2014%
Jan 30th-Feb 9th
2015%
Mar 24th - Apr 2nd
2015%
19th-26th
June 2015
%
19th-30th
July 2015
%
28th Oct-6th Nov
2015%
25th Jan-4th Feb2016
%
GeneralElection
2016%
18th -30th
June2016
%
8th-20th
Oct2016
%
6th-16th
Feb2017
%
9th-21st July2017
%
6th-14th
Feb2018
%
18th-30th
April2018
%
10Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would
you give your first preference vote?
Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)
26
2927 28 27 27
30
2729
25 25
22 22
25 25
29
24
2927 26
30 29
25
30
3634
29 28
2527 27
2426
21 2220 21 20
18 19 19
23 23 2422
2426 27
33
29 28 27
19 1921
19 1921
16
2220
2422
26
21
2624
21 21 21 21
14
20 20 20 20 2022
8 8 810 9 9
12
86 7
97
5 68
6 7 7 6 7 7 86 7
4 5
1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 13
1 1 1 13 3 2 2 2 2 3
18
15
18
14
17 18
15
20 2123 23 23
32
23
20 20
24
19
22
27
14 15 14 1311
8
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jun 20th-28th 2013
Aug 3rd-12th 2013
Aug 17th-27th 2013
Sep 13th-25th 2013
Sep 30th-Oct 9th
Nov 3rd-13th
Jan 15th-24th 2014
Feb 19th-24th 2014
Apr 5th-15th 2014
Jul 18th-30th 2014
Sep 9th-18th 2014
Oct 21st-31st 2014
Dec 8th-18th 2014
Jan 29th-Feb 9th
2015
Mar 24th-Apr 2nd
2015
19th-26thJun 2015
19th-30thJul 2015
28th Oct-6th Nov
2015
25th Jan -4th Feb
2016
GeneralElection
2016
18th-30thJune 2016
8th-20thOct 2016
6th-16thFeb 2017
9th-21stJuly 2017
6th-14thFeb 2018
18th-30thApril 2018
Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Labour Green Party Independents/Others*
* Includes all other parties
Independents/Others:October
2016February
2017July 2017
February2018
April2018
Solidarity-PBP 2% 3% 1% 1% 1
Social Democrats 1% 2% * 1% *
Independent Candidates/ Other
Parties6% 4% 7% 6% 2
Independent Alliance 5% 5% 5% 3% 5
Base: All giving a first preference
11
Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)
Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate
would you give your first preference vote?
28272730
27292525
22222525
2924
2927263029
2530
3634
27272426
21222021201819192323242224262627
33292827
19192116
22202422
2621
262421212121
14202020202022
10 9 912
8 6 7 9 7 5 6 8 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 6 74 5
141718
152021232323
32
232020
2419
2227
141716151311
INDEPENDENTSOTHERS*
*Includes all others (including Greens)
Base: All giving a first preference
12Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Satisfaction with the Government has stabilised. Nearly half are happy with its performance
46%48%
7%
Don’t know(7%)
Dissatisfied(45%)
Satisfied(49%)
One in Two are happy
( ) = February 2018 Results
HIGHER AMONG %
Fine Gael Supporters 84
Dublin Residents 65
Farming Community* 60
ABs 54
Males 52
55+ 51
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003)
HIGHER AMONG %
Sinn Féin Supporters 80
Labour Supporters* 58
Conn/Ulster residents 58
Rural Residents 55
DEs 55
Munster Residents 55
Uncommitted Voters 52
Independents/Others Supporters 51
*Caution small base
13
Satisfaction with Government Over Time – Opinion is somewhat polarised on the performance of the
Government more recently
75 73 72 71 73 7468 71
66 6962
73 71 68 6963 67
60 62 60 62 64
5045 46
17 19 19 2021 19
23 2024
2327
2119 23
2629 25
32 2928
31 27
40 49 48
7 7 10 9 6 7 10 9 9 8 116
9 9 5 8 8 8 9 118 9 10
7 7
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
Don’t know
2013Results
2014Results
2015Results
2016Results
2017Results
June20th–28th
2013%
Aug3rd-12th
2013%
Aug17th-27th
2013%
Sep13th–25th
2013%
Sep 30th -
Oct 9th
2013%
Nov 3rd-13th
2013%
Jan15th-24th
2014 %
Feb19th-28th
2014 %
Apr5th-15th
2014 %
Jul18th–30th
2014 %
Sep9th-18th
2014 %
Oct 21st–31st
2014%
Dec8th-18th
2014%
Jan 30th-Feb 9th
2015%
Mar 24th - Apr 2nd
2015%
19th-26th
June 2015
%
19th-30th
July 2015
%
28th Oct-6th Nov 2015
%
25th Jan-4th Feb2016
%
18th -30th
June2016
%
8th-20th
Oct2016
%
6th-16th
Feb2017
%
9th-21st
July2017
%
6th-14th
Feb2018
%
18th-30th
April2018
%
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003)
2018Results
14
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mary Lou McDonald is doing her job as leader of Sinn
Féin?
Satisfaction with Party Leaders
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003)
24 27 3225 31 27 27 29 27
4958 56
23 25 26 20 24 22 27 25 26 28 22 26 29 30 36 32 32 27
43 43 44 45 48 4429 32 30 30 27 27 31 29 30 35 39
46
64 6759
66 60 62 63 59 62
28 29 34
61 6557
65 62 62
43 47 48 43 48 50 4957
45 49 49 4838 40 40 36 36 39
50 56 52 51 55 51 51 51 5444
37 37
Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry AdamsBrendan Howlin
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
Don’t know
Feb’15%
Mar/Apr’15%
Jun’15%
Jul’15%
Oct/Nov’15%
Feb’16%
Jun’16%
Oct’16%
Feb‘17%
Jul‘17%
Feb‘18%
Apr‘18%
Enda Kenny Leo Varadkar Mary Lou McDonald
(12) (7) (9) (9) (9) (11) (11) (12) (11) (24) (13) (10) (16) (11) (16) (14) (14) (16) (30) (27) (26) (29) (30) (25) (22) (13) (19) (19) (20) (25) (18) (18) (16) (19) (16) (17) (21) (12) (18) (19) (18) (21) (18) (19) (16) (22) (24) (17)
Feb’15%
Mar/Apr’15%
Jun’15%
Jul’15%
Oct/Nov’15%
Feb’16%
Jun’16%
Oct’16%
Feb‘17%
Jul‘17%
Feb‘18%
Apr‘18%
Feb’15%
Mar/Apr’15%
Jun’15%
Jul’15%
Oct/Nov’15%
Feb’16%
Jun’16%
Oct’16%
Feb‘17%
Jul‘17%
Feb‘18%
Apr‘18%
Feb’15%
Mar/Apr’15%
Jun’15%
Jul’15%
Oct/Nov’15%
Feb’16%
Jun’16%
Oct’16%
Feb‘17%
Jul‘17%
Feb‘18%
Apr‘18%
15Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach?
Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Leo Varadkar
34%
56%
10%
Don’t know(13%)
Dissatisfied(29%)
Satisfied(58%)
( ) = February 2018 Results
HIGHER AMONG %
Fine Gael Supporters 89
Satisfied with Gov't 88
Dublin Residents 71
Farming Community* 70
35-44 65
ABs 63
C2s 62
Urban Residents 59
Labour Supporters* 59
HIGHER AMONG %
Sinn Féin Supporters 69
Dissatisfied with Gov't 65
DEs 48
Conn/Ulster Residents 46
45-54 42
Munster Residents 39
Fianna Fáil Supporters 39
Rural Residents 37
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003)
*Caution – small base size
16Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?
Satisfaction with Brendan Howlin
50%26%
25% Don’t know(30%)
Dissatisfied(48%) Satisfied
(22%)
( ) = February 2018 Results
HIGHER AMONG %
Labour Supporters* 79
Farming Community* 44
Fine Gael Supporters 40
C2s 37
Dublin Residents 34
25-44 30
Males 29
HIGHER AMONG %
Sinn Féin Supporters 79
45-54 62
Conn/Ulster Residents 58
55-64 57
Dublin Residents 56
DEs 55
ABs 54
Urban Residents 54
65+ 54
Fianna Fáil Supporters 53
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003)
*Caution – small base size
17Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?
Satisfaction with Michéal Martin
HIGHER AMONG %
Fianna Fáil Supporters 81
Labour Supporters* 55
Munster Residents 47
C1s 47
65+ 53
Farming Community* 48
39%
44%
17%
Don’t know(16%)
Dissatisfied(36%) Satisfied
(48%)
HIGHER AMONG %
Sinn Féin Supporters 63
Dublin Residents 49
Independents/Others
Supporters46
Farming Community* 45
Fine Gael Supporters 45
35-54 43
( ) = February 2018 Results
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003)
*Caution – small base size
18Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mary Lou McDonald is doing her job as leader of Sinn
Féin?
Satisfaction with Mary Lou McDonald
HIGHER AMONG %
Sinn Féin Supporters 86
C2s 53
25-34 52
Rural Residents 52
55-64 50
Leinster Residents 49
37% 46%
17%
Don’t know(24%)
Dissatisfied(37%) Satisfied
(39%)
HIGHER AMONG %
Independents/Others
Supporters51
Fine Gael Supporters 49
Dublin Residents 46
Labour Supporters* 46
ABs 46
45-54 45
Fianna Fáil Supporters 44
Conn/Ulster Residents 44
Urban Community 43
65+ 43
C1s 43
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003)
*Caution – small base size( ) = February 2018 Results
19
Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach?Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mary Lou McDonald is doing her job as leader of Sinn Féin?
56%
26%
44%
46%
Total
34%
50%
39%
37%
8 35 39 69 36
43 13 53 79 53
45 38 14 63 46
49 46 44 10 51
Supporters%
Supporters*%
Supporters%
Supporters%
Independent/ Other PartySupporters*
%
89 59 56 27 51
40 79 25 9 21
43 55 81 26 40
38 43 45 86 36
* Includes all other parties
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
# Previously Gerry Adams
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003)
*Caution – small base size
Leo Varadkar (49) (58)
Brendan Howlin (28) (22)
Michéal Martin (45) (48)
Mary Lou McDonald (35)# (39)
Leo Varadkar (28) (29)
Brendan Howlin (43) (48)
Michéal Martin (36) (36)
Mary Lou
McDonald(44)# (37)
July
2017
Feb
2018
Apr
2018
20
Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Fianna Fáil remain the least toxic of the main parties
Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any
upcoming election?
()=previous results
WOULD NOT
CONSIDER
* Includes all other parties
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003)
27%
26%
21%
34%
24%
24%
21%
Feb
2016
June
2016
Oct
2016
Feb
2017
July
2017
Feb
2018
Fine Gael (34) (35) (32) (32) (25) (22)
Labour (31) (28) (22) (24) (25) (24)
Fianna Fáil (24) (25) (21) (21) (18) (17)
Sinn Féin (37) (40) (38) (36) (34) (36)
Solidarity/People Before
Profit(16) (17) (18) (22) (24) (21)
Green Party (n/a) (18) (17) (20) (24) (22)
Social Democrats (9) (8) (10) (14) (19) (18)
Apr
2018Supporters
%Supporters*
%Supporters
%Supporters
%
Independent/ Other partySupporters
%
- 32 32 67 40
16 - 40 41 25
21 26 - 51 30
49 41 50 - 39
30 16 35 17 13
21 18 37 27 21
27 13 27 14 12
*Caution – small base size
21Q. The current government is held together by a “Confidence and Supply” agreement between Fine Gael
and Fianna Fáil for three budgets. The third budget is this October. Do you think these parties should
renew their deal after the budget, or should there be a general election?
One in three want to have the Confidence and Supply Agreement renewed.
40%
32%
10%19%
HIGHER AMONG %
Sinn Féin Supporters 62
Ind/Others 51
C2s 46
Dublin Residents 46
Munster Residents 46
Labour Supporters* 46
35-54 45
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003)
Don’t know
It depends
Should be aGeneral Election
Should renew Agreement
HIGHER AMONG %
Leinster 46
Fine Gael Supporters 46
65+ 45
Satisfied with Gov't 44
55-64 42
ABs 42
Rural Residents 37
*Caution – small base size
HIGHER AMONG %
Conn/Ulster 34
Farming Community* 27
25-34 26
Undecided 26
Dublin Residents 25
Fianna Fáil Supporters 24
• Additional Issues for
publication:
The 8th Amendment
23
Q. The Oireachtas Committee on the Eighth Amendment, which currently gives equal right to life to the
mother and the foetus, has recommended that Abortion should be available without restriction up to
12 weeks of pregnancy. Do you think that this recommendation goes too far, not far enough, or is
about right?
Opinions on the 12 week Abortion Proposal. One in three have reservations, and there still is a
substantial minority undecided
32%
11%
15%42%
HIGHER AMONG %
Farming Community* 57
65+ 48
Munster Residents 48
55-64 45
Rural Residents 43
Fianna Fáil Supporters 40
DEs 38
Leinster Residents 35
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003)
Too far(33%)
OPINIONS ON THE 12 WEEK ABORTION
PROPOSAL
Don’t know/Refusal(19%)About right
(40%)
Not far enough(8%)
*Caution – small base size( ) = February 2018 Results
HIGHER AMONG %
25-34 54
C2s 53
Females 18-44 51
Dublin 51
Ind/Others 49
35-44 48
18-24 47
Sinn Féin Supporters 47
24Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to repeal the 8th amendment of the
constitution. Will you vote in favour or against this amendment?
There is a clear majority in favour of Repeal of the 8th , although over one in five are keeping
their cards close to their chests
34%
45%
18%
4%
Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003)
Including undecideds
Don’t know
43%
57%
Excluding undecideds
Will voteagainst
Base: All who have made up their minds (n=787)
Will votein favour
Refused
Will voteagainst
Will votein favour
25
Nearly one in five of those who have made a decision are still uncertain of their choice
Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to?
R. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to Repeal the 8th amendment of
the constitution. Will you vote in favour or against this referendum?
Base: All who have decided how to vote (787)
82%
52%
30%
17%
14%
3%
1%
Apr
2018
Voting infavour(453)
%
VotingAgainst
(334)%
81 84
49 56
32 28
18 15
16 11
2 4
1 1
All certain (Combined)
Absolutely certain
Pretty certain
All uncertain (Combined)
Some reservations/doubts
Not at all certain
Don't know
26
Voting intentions x Demographics: The Yes side is heavily skewed toward younger voters
Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to Repeal the 8th amendment of
the constitution. Will you vote in favour or against this referendum?
Base: All who have decided how to vote (787)
45%
34%
18%
4%
Apr
2018 Male%
Female%
18-24%
25-34%
35-44%
45-54%
55-64%
65+%
Females18-44
%
42 47 58 54 48 44 35 32 54
33 35 21 27 27 31 43 51 27
21 15 18 15 21 19 18 15 15
4 4 3 4 3 6 5 2 4
Will vote in favour
Will vote against
Don't know
Refused
Sex Age
Voting intentions by Demographics
27Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to Repeal the 8th amendment of
the constitution. Will you vote in favour or against this referendum?
Base: All who have decided how to vote (787)
45%
34%
18%
4%
Apr
2018 AB%
C1%
C2%
DE%
F*%
Dublin%
Rest ofLeinster
%Munster
%
Conn/Ulster
%
44 51 47 42 18 51 46 41 37
32 30 30 35 62 29 33 37 38
16 15 19 19 20 12 19 20 22
8 3 4 4 - 8 2 2 2
Will vote in favour
Will vote against
Don't know
Refused
Social Class Region
Voting intentions by Demographics
*Caution – small base size
Voting intentions x Demographics: Dublin is driving the Yes side, but there is a distinct
East/West divide
28Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to Repeal the 8th amendment of
the constitution. Will you vote in favour or against this referendum?
Base: All who have decided how to vote (787)
45%
34%
18%
4%
Apr
2018 Fianna Fáil%
Fine Gael%
Labour*%
Sinn Féin%
Ind/Other%
39 44 29 52 45
41 33 46 35 26
18 18 13 11 28
2 5 12 2 1
Will vote in favour
Will vote against
Don't know
Refused
Voting intentions by Party Support
*Caution – small base size
Voting intentions x Party Support: Of the main parties, Fianna Fáil supporters are most
polarised
2941111511/PM
For more information, please contact: Paul Moran [email protected] 087 286 0773
6 Ely Place Dublin 2
t. +353 (1) 297 4500 | www.millwardbrown.com/ie