National Weather Service Kansas City / Pleasant Hill Weather

Forecast Office Integrated Warning Team (IWT)

Workshop

Using the Weather and Society * Integrated

Studies (WAS*IS) Approach January 21, 2009

Eve Gruntfest and Julie Demuth

WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program

WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program

Weather & Society * Integrated Studies

JulieDemuth

EveGruntfe

st

WAS*IS addresses two persistent issues

– I don’t know how, &…– I don’t know anyone else

who does this kind of work”

“I want to do work that integrates meteorology & societal impacts BUT…

WAS*IS VisionTo change the weather enterprise by

comprehensively & sustainably integrating social science into meteorological research

& practice

WAS*IS Mission

1. Build an interdisciplinary community of practitioners, researchers, & stakeholders — from the grassroots up — who are dedicated to the integration of meteorology & social science

Capacity building -- creating a community for lifelong collaboration & support!

Capacity building -- creating a community for lifelong collaboration & support!

2. Provide opportunities to learn & examine ideas, methods, & examples related to integrated weather-society work• Tools – GIS, surveys, qualitative methods• Concepts – problem definition, speaking

the same language, end-to-end-to-end process

• Topics – risk perception, vulnerability, resilience

WAS*IS Mission

The WAS*IS Adventure

Began as 1 workshop … now 6 (so far)! Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (Nov 2005, Mar 2006) Condensed 3-day Norman WAS*IS (April 2006) Summer WAS*IS (July 2006) Australia WAS*IS (end of January 2007) Summer WAS * IS (July 2007) Summer WAS * IS (July 2008) Summer WAS*IS (August 2009) tentative

As of January 2009, 171 WAS*ISers!

WAS * IS workshops – --not like other workshops--dedicated to culture change! Now till Friday afternoon:We take into account regional conditions around Kansas City and

We build on the WAS * IS momentum to improve communication and effectiveness across the numerous sectors engaged in issuing warnings

10

WAS * IS work is underway

Some examples we will learn more about in next two days

Challenge ourselves to apply new practices • in OUR region

• appropriate for OUR weather

Dan Nietfeld – Scientific Operations Officer – Omaha –Specific questions forecasters can consider social impacts in forecasts

Who will be impacted?

Are people awake/sleeping/ driving/coaching, getting married?

What has happened up to this point?• Have there already been fatalities?• What are the TV stations saying?

Have earlier storms been “missed” ?

Dan Nietfeld Also teaching popular classes at University of Nebraska Lincoln

Public – private – nonprofit collaborations to improve all elements of weather enterprise

with emphases onBetter communication

More geographic specificity

Reduced confusion

Partnership opportunities

Kevin Barjenbruch-National WeatherService Salt LakeCity

MelissaTuttle Carr

Gina Eosco

Pursuing Ph.D. in risk communication at Oklahoma

Five years experience working at American Meteorological Society

Master’s work at Cornell University Interviewing forecasters & government officials

about their interpretations, objectives, & desired behavioral responses to the cone of uncertainty, a hurricane track graphic tool

Rebecca Morss - National Center for Atmospheric Research Newly elected member of the Council of the American Meteorological Society

L E A D E R in Problem definition Social science research agendas end- to-end-to-end processWorking with students at Texas A & M following Hurricane Rita

Local government

agencies (e.g., floodplain management)

End-to-End-to-End Researchers & Decision-Makers

Professional associations

Private engineering consultants

Broadcasters

Public (e.g., homeowners)

Private businesses

Local government

elected officials

State & regional governments

Federal government

Researchers

Morss, R. E., 2005 Problem definition in atmospheric science public policy: The example of observing system design for weather prediction Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86 181-191

Emphasis on social relevance rather than product performance --Provide what public needs/wants

Lindsey Barnes - New conceptual model of false alarms & close calls

Barnes L, Gruntfest E, Hayden M, Schultz D, Benight C (2007) False Alarms & Close Calls: A Conceptual Model of Warning Accuracy. Weather & Forecasting 22, 1140-1147

Other National Weather Service activities

Successful workshop in Springfield, Missouri (December 2008) with similar mission Including social science on post-event survey

assessment teams

Weaving social science into many training classes

Evaluating new socially- relevant metrics – not just performance based

Other WAS*IS accomplishmentsTEACHING - New course offerings in Weather & Society

U North Carolina Asheville U of Oklahoma U of Colorado Denver

RESEARCH•Grants •Publications•Presentations at professional meetings

NEW JOBSWAYS OF DOING BUSINESS STARTING TO CHANGE DIALOGUES WITHIN & BETWEEN AGENCIES – sensitivity to societal impacts

Chris Godfrey Sam Ng

Weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized

How can we change our forecasts & warnings to account for temporal & geographic specificity needs?

Understanding human behavior is difficult- perhaps comparable to bringing forecasting to its 2009 levels

Task of predicting human behavior may be as tough as predicting weather

Acknowledging the need is major first step One social scientist per agency is a start but he/she won’t change culture

National Weather ServicePrivate forecasters

Local Communities

The move from WAS to IS occurs when stovepipes are not the model Bring social science & policy into programs & research efforts in sustainable ways

Meteorologists, Hydrologists

UniversitiesInternational Agencies

Research Centers

Urban Drainage Districts

Broadcast meteorologists

Greg Mortenson’s Three Cups of Tea analogy One Man's Mission to Promote Peace . . . One School at a Time (Best selling book about building

schools in Afghanistan & Pakistan) 1st cup- stranger 2nd cup- honored guest 3rd cup- you’re part of family… takes years With 171 official WAS*ISers & hundreds of other like-

minded hard-workers

Social science & policy are having our 2nd cup of tea with meteorology

We’re not family yet – but we’re no longer strangers

What did the most influential players look like in meteorology prior to WAS*IS & SSWIM

WAS * ISers are NOT the same people with new technologies!

WAS*ISers are changing the culture to integrate societal impacts in sustainable ways

THE CHANGE IS UNDERWAY -Our WAS * IS inspired workshop

takes into account regional conditions around Kansas City and

builds on the momentum to improve communication and effectiveness across the numerous sectors engaged in issuing warnings

Road ahead will not be s m o o t h – but journey is well worth making!

Thanks for your participation – Let’s get to work!

WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program

WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program