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8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 127
NATIONSIN TRANSIT2016
Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 227
CONTENTS
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact 983089
Turning o Xenophobia in Cenral Europe 983094
Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis 983096
Ukrainersquos Pivoal Year 983089983088
The EUrsquos Dilemma in he Balkans 983089983089
From Dicaorship o Dynasy 983089983094
Elecions 983090983088983089983094 983089983096
Map of Regime Types 983089983090
Methodology 983090983088
Category and Democracy Score Summary 983090983089
Democracy Score History by Region 983090983090
Average Regional Category Scores 983090983091
ON THE COVER
Hungarian soldiers wih barbed-wire encing on he border
wih Slovenia in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 Photo by Jure Makovec
RESEARCH AND EDITORIAL TEAM
Nae Schenkkan is projec direcor o Nations in Transit Senior
Researcher Zselyke Csaky and Research Associae Anna Bar
conribued o his bookle
2
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 327
While illiberal naionalism rose in Europe wih Cenral
European leaders closing borders and denounc-
ing reugees and migrans as a hrea o he naion
financial pressures brough abou by alling oil prices
and worker remitances undermined he economies
o Russia and mos ormer Sovie saes The risk is
ha hese separae developmens could convergewih he collapse o Eurasian saes adding o Europersquos
growing lis o roubles
Since 983089983097983097983093 Nations in Transit has racked he prog-
ress and regression o democracy in Cenral Europe
he Balkans and Eurasia Daa rom he las decade
presen a grim porrai o decline Weighed or popu-
laion he average Democracy Score in he region has
declined or 983089983090 years in a row A sark reurn o con-
solidaed auhoriarianism in Russia which accouns
or 983091983093 percen o he regionrsquos populaion has been
he op driver o he decline Bu he problem goes
well beyond Russia The region has had more declines
han improvemens every year since 983090983088983088983095 No a
single subregionmdashCenral Europe he Balkans or Eur-
asiamdashhas improved overall since 983090983088983089983089 These rends
have now coalesced ino undamenal hreas o he
regional order ha bode ill or 983090983088983089983094 and beyond
Europe in questionEuropean insiuions have aced a growing crisis o
confidence since 983090983088983088983096 riggered firs by he ongoing
sruggle o wind down he eurozone deb crisis Buhe increased flow o reugees and migrans rom he
Middle Eas and Norh Arica in 983090983088983089983093 presened he
European Union and is leading governmens wih an
emergency ha could no be conained wih hal-
measures or delay and he disjoined response hey
offered was plainly inadequae
Europersquos disuniy lef he field open or populiss
Leading poliicians in Cenral Europemdashbacked by
some counerpars in Wesern Europemdashembraced xe-
nophobia and naionalism posiioning hemselves as
proecors o heir counriesrsquo Chrisian ideniy agains
an ldquoinvasionrdquo o Muslims The challenge o Europe ha
or years has been embodied by he brazen illiberal-
ism o Hungaryrsquos Vikor Orbaacuten is no longer concen-
raed in a single counry i is becoming he preerred
Nations in Transit 2016Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
Europe and Eurasia ended 983090983088983089983093 mired in institutional and economic
crises that threatened both the survival of the European Union and
the stability of Eurasiarsquos entrenched dictatorships
wwwreedomhouseorg 1
by Nae Schenkkan
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 427
approach among he saes ha joined he EU afer
983090983088983088983088 Wha used o be ringe alk o he possible col-
lapse o he union is now widely discussed
Driven by Hungaryrsquos rapid backsliding Nations in Tran-
sitrsquos average Democracy Score or Cenral Europe has
declined 983089983090 percen rom is peak in 983090983088983088983094 Moreover
he Law and Jusice paryrsquos moves o rapidly akeconrol o sae insiuions and weaken checks and
balances in Poland damaged ha counryrsquos score in
983090983088983089983093 and porend urher declines in 983090983088983089983094
In he Balkans he leaders o Serbia Macedonia and
Monenegro have urned he EUrsquos disarray o heir
advanage rusing ha is longing or sabiliy will ou-
weigh clear evidence o individual poliicians and par-
ies capuring he sae o promoe heir own ineress
Despie allegaions o voe rigging corrupion and
raud ha promped Macedoniarsquos larges proess
in years ormer prime miniser Nikola Gruevski has
salled implemenaion o an EU-brokered reorm dea
and appears likely o reurn o power hrough early
elecions now scheduled or June In Serbia Prime
Miniser Aleksandar Vučić successully opened acces
sion negoiaions wih he EU even as he accused he
blocrsquos represenaive o unding invesigaive journal-
iss o undermine him Monenegro opened six new
chapers in is accession negoiaions and received
a ormal inviaion o join NATO bu i is mired in cor-
rupion under Prime Miniser Milo ETHukanović whohas run he counry in and ou o office since 983089983097983097983089
Afer subsanial progress rom 983090983088983088983092 o 983090983088983089983088 he
Balkans subregion has declined six years in a row and
is average Democracy Score is he same as i was in
983090983088983088983092 Wih he excepion o Albania he scores o all
he subregionrsquos EU candidaes and poenial candidae
are declining no improvingmdasha disurbing indicaor o
heir level o commimen o EU sandards
Number of changes in DS per year average changes weighted and unweighted for population
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
20
6
4
2
0
12
10
8
18
16
14
Improved Neutral Declined Average Score Weighted Score
Total number of changes in category scores Democracy Score
6
4
4
5
5
7
6
Europersquos disuniy lef he field
open or populiss
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
2
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 527
Eurasia on the brinkIn he Eurasian hal o he Nations in Transit region
he collapse in global commodiy prices especially
oil drove Russia ino recession and riggered similarly
desperae currency crises and budge shoralls in he
perosaes o Azerbaijan Turkmenisan and Kazakh-
san The decline rippled hrough he non-energyeconomies o he Eurasian periphery ha are depen-
den on Russia hrough subsidies and migran labor
Belarus Kyrgyzsan Tajikisan and Uzbekisan
Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed by he ac
ha vial sae insiuions have been hollowed ou
over decades The lack o ransparency accounabiliy
and checks and balances has lef he dicaors o he
region saddled wih bloaed indebed and deeply cor-
rup sae enerprises buil on high commodiy prices
Pety corrupion and official predaion weigh down
weak privae secors As we wrie in early 983090983088983089983094 banksare being shutered and Inernaional Moneary Fund
(IMF) delegaions are ouring he region on emergency
evaluaion missions I oil prices say low hroughou
983090983088983089983094 Eurasiarsquos much-vauned auhoriarian sabiliy
could come o a dramaic end
The majoriy o Eurasian leaders have responded wih
measures inended o ensure ha nohing hreaens
heir rule Vladimir Puinrsquos naked embrace o auocracy
since his reurn o he presidency in 983090983088983089983090 deepened
in 983090983088983089983093 wih an ever-harsher crackdown on civil soci-
ey and poliical organizing Applicaion o he ldquooreignagensrdquo law drove civic organizaions abroad or under-
ground and he lis o poliical prisoners coninued o
grow Russian ldquoinnovaionsrdquo in auhoriarianism such
as resricions on nongovernmenal organizaions
spread urher wihin Eurasia in some cases hrough
imiaion and in some cases hrough acive Russian
effors Wih he economic siuaion becoming more
desperae and he chance o success in Ukraine more
disan Puin opened a new ron in his challenge o
he Wes by launching miliary operaions in Syria o
back Presiden Bashar al-Assad
Tajikisan pursued one o he fierces consolidaions
o power he region has seen in he las decade ban-
ning he main opposiion pary and imprisoning is
leadership One opposiion leader Umarali Kuvvaov
was assassinaed in Isanbul Kazakhsanrsquos Presiden
Nursulan Nazarbayev held early elecions o rea-
firm his mandae while signing a new law o increase
conrol over civil sociey Azerbaijan coninued a
crackdown ha began in he summer o 983090983088983089983092 marked
in 983090983088983089983093 by he senencing o he counryrsquos mos
prominen invesigaive journalis Khadija Ismayilova
o seven and a hal years in prison
Showing his ypical Machiavellian flexibiliy Belarusrsquos
Presiden Alyaksandr Lukashenka ook he opposie
ack by reeing poliical prisoners and allowing mild
criicism ahead o a presidenial elecion in Ocober
in an effor o cour he EU and replace he paron-
Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed
by he ac ha vial sae insiuions
have been hollowed ou over decades
Normalized subregional Democracy Scores
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGE IN DEMOCRACY SCOREAVERAGES BY REGION
rsquo04 rsquo05 rsquo06 rsquo07 rsquo08 rsquo09 rsquo10 rsquo11 rsquo12 rsquo13 rsquo14 rsquo15 rsquo16
-040
-035
-030
-025
-020
-015
-010
-005
000
005
010
015
020
CentralEurope
Balkan
Eurasia
Averagechange
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
3
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 627
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 OVERVIEW OF RATINGS CHANGES
COUNTRY DS 2016 (DS 2015 ) EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO
Albania 414
Bosnia and Herzegovina 450 (446)Croatia 368
Kosovo 507 (514)
Macedonia 429 (407)
Montenegro 393 (389)
Serbia 375 (368)
Bulgaria 325 (329)
Czech Republic 221
Estonia 193 (196)Hungary 329 (318)
Latvia 207
Lithuania 232 (236)
Poland 232 (221)
Romania 346
Slovakia 261 (264)
Slovenia 200 (193)
Armenia 536
Azerbaijan 686 (675)
Belarus 664 (671)
Georgia 461 (464)
Kazakhstan 661
Kyrgyzstan 589 (593)
Moldova 489 (486)
Russia 650 (646)
Tajikistan 654 (639)
Turkmenistan 693
Ukraine 468 (475)
Uzbekistan 693
B A L K A N S
C E N T R A L E U R O P E
E U R A S I A
Decline Improvemen Unchanged
The NIT ratings arebased on a scale of 983089 to983095 with 983089 representing
the highest level ofdemocratic progressand 983095 the lowestThe NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from983089 January through 983091983089December 983090983088983089983093
Categories EP ndash Electoral Process CS ndash Civil Society IM ndash Independent Media NDG ndash National Democratic Governance
LDG ndash Local Democratic Governance JFI ndash Judicial Framework and Independence CO ndash Corruption DS ndash Democracy Score
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
4
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 727
age ha Russia can no longer provide The cosmeic
ldquohawrdquo worked The EU has lifed sancions and he
IMF is in alks o prop up he economy
Muddling throughEven in a dark year here are small reasons or hope
Civil socieyndashdriven effors o uproo a corrup sysemin Ukraine showed inermiten progress in 983090983088983089983093 wih
he governmen enjoying relaive sabiliy and laying
he groundwork or insiuional reorms in he judi-
ciary he prosecuorrsquos office and anicorrupion bod-
ies So ar he EU and democraic donor governmens
have remained firm in making assisance condiional
on reorms and i is vial ha his approach coninue
les enrenched elies urn such aid ino ye anoher
embezzlemen scheme Ukraine is and should be he
op prioriy or reorm effors in he region and aid
mus no become a blank check or is leaders The
same is rue or Moldova where he EU and is allies
sill have a chance o build on popular ourage over
he 983090983088983089983092 hef o 983076983089 billion rom he counryrsquos banks
and orce he sae o finally ackle corrupion
In Georgia despie he poliicizaion o high-profile
cases he judiciary has improved a he day-o-day
level offering a posiive sign ha even in a polarized
sysem srucural reorm may sill have momenum
Parliamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983094 will be a major es
o he durabiliy o his rend Kyrgyzsan held on-
schedule elecions in Ocober ha improved mod-
esly on is previous round in 983090983088983089983088 Alhough here is
disurbing evidence o consolidaion o power around
Presiden Almazbek Aambayev he elecoral process
was open enough ha his pary could no secure a
majoriy in he parliamen Kosovo he wors perorm-
er in he Balkans or years made some progress on
insiuion building in 983090983088983089983093 alhough a serious crisis
beween he opposiion and governmen brough he
parliamen o a sandsill lae in he year hreaening
o cripple he governmenrsquos work in 983090983088983089983094
Rising to the challengeIn Europe and Eurasia no o menion he Unied
Saes he poliicians who sand ou oday are he oneswih he paricularis plaorms and he easy answersmdash
build a wall crush he erroriss proec he aherland
I is no enough o say ha hese populiss are doomed
o ail ha heir disregard or checks and balances or
heir dismissal o basic economics will evenually be
heir undoing The damage hey do can live on long
pas heir ime on he poliical sage
Europe mus choose beween creaing accoun-
able mechanisms wih enough power o address
undamenally supranaional issues or waching as
individual member saes ake apar he union piece
by piece On migraion he EUrsquos March 983090983088983089983094 deal wih
Turkey neiher solves he problem nor complies wih
inernaional law By graning accession progress o
Turkeyrsquos deeply auhoriarian governmen in exchangeor a crackdown on reugees he EU has undermined
is moral auhoriy and lef isel vulnerable o black-
mail A leas on his ron he Hungary modelmdasho
unilaeral border conrols dismissal o inernaional
law and sigmaizaion o ousidersmdashappears o be
winning
Paradoxically despie he EUrsquos ailures on migraion
here are signs ha i is gaining asseriveness on good
governmen elsewhere For candidae counries ac-
cession crieria have grown more sringen For mem-
bers he relaive success o he unionrsquos Cooperaion
and Verificaion Mechanism in encouraging Romania
o curb corrupion and he early invocaion o he
EUrsquos new rule-o-law mechanism regarding Poland
show ha here is hope or more accounabiliy wihin
he bloc
Afer an iniial hesiaion he Unied Saes has done
an admirable job o supporing ar-reaching reorms in
Ukraine which is sill he single mos imporan policy
or susaining democraizaion in he region The
decision o deploy more roops in Easern Europe and
he Balics is anoher posiive sign ha Washingon is
responding appropriaely o Moscowrsquos hreas
The Unied Saes is less well prepared for he moresuble challenge of prevening backsliding inside he EU
and in he Balkans The concep of a Europe ldquowhole and
freerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed o recognize
he inernal hreas o Europersquos uniy and libery namely
he reurn of naionalism and he dismanling of checks
and balances o allow sae capure A forward-looking
US policy will suppor Europe no only agains exernal
aggression bu also agains he dangers posed by grand
corrupion and illiberalism a home
The concep o a Europe ldquowhole and
reerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed
o recognize he inernal hreaso Europersquos uniy and libery
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
5
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827
In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished
hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion
and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-
pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-
ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem
solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he
Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland
and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-
rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-
ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades
VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu
he facual poin is ha all he
erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-
graed o he European Unionrdquo
Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-
oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o
score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-
lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o
European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral
European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-
phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir
posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary
poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences
MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being
organized by he Muslim Broh-
erhood using financial means
from a number of saeshellip The
Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-
rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a
growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo
The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries
share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa
o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088
or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in
Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia
and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-
cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir
populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-
Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe
ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism
or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz
pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in
opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical
discourse in boh counries
ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian
counry we canno olerae
an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088
Muslim immigrans who would
like o sar building mosques
all over our land and rying o change he naure
culure and values o he saerdquo
Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries
Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous
in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey
provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech
presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader
Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion
o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a
significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-
back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains
he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope
or he region
JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of
parasites and protozoa which hellip
while not dangerous in the or-
ganisms of these people could
be dangerous hererdquo
The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders
is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified
acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on
liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have
also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-
cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-
raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed
rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin
proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as
an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
6
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927
Hungary drives the decline
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Latvia
EstoniaSlovenia
Czech Republic
Poland
Lithuania
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Hungary
Romania
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10 Regime Type
Consolidated
Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated
Democracy (SCD)
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
7
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027
Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis
A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil
prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced
hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-
ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12 Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES
2013 2014 2015
Source World Bank
TurkmenistanUzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
GeorgiaAzerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
PERCENTAGE OF
REGIONAL GDP
74
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
8
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127
Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013
$20
$30
$110
$120
200
100
0
180
160
140
120
80
60
40
20
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar
SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL
UAH
GEL
AZN
KGS
TJS
KZT
BYR
RUB
MDL
Brent Oil Price
Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks
201520142013
ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan
REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR
Percent decline 2014-2015
Millions of USD
0
$1000
$2000
$3000
$4000
$5000
$6000
$7000
-70
-75
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
9
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227
Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year
The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when
he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced
an associaion agreemen wih he European Union
All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry
oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on
he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how
Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in
he official accession process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
JudicialFrameworkand Independence
Local Democratic
Governance
National
DemocraticGovernance
IndependentMedia
Civil Society
Electoral Process
Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates
How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union
While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o
EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-
ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial
candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen
media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic
governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-
pendence and naional democraic governance wih
he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen
insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas
remain under occupaion
Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-
ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he
judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy
Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen
expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could
sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos
office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-
onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he
counry is o reain US and European suppor
Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which
includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088
percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b
implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h
need or complex consiuional changes o undergird
i These amendmens were submited o he Con-
siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In
addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion
such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-
man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he
proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence
during he revoluion
The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching
Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he
poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-
mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or
economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona
Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he
nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-
ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing
corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress
coninues
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU
Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
10
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327
The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans
Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094
years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-
pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he
appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process
Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and
Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-
orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih
he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where
i was in 983090983088983088983092
The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance
beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans
and pressing or convergence wih European norms
Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu
in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he
hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes
as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he
Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o
naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy
has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an
-03
-02
-01
00
01
02
03
04
05
Average
Serbia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Kosovo
Croatia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Albania
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i
is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible
wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage
ha Dayon encourages
The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or
membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-
naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-
sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made
some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular
inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example
o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing
atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly
hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU
visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like
Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue
In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical
srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook
heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter
choice
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS
Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
11
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427
wwwfreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
13
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
12
The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic
development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy
Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the
2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration
from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime
types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-
consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
BELARUS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECH REP
SLOVAKIA
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
MACEDONIA
ALBANIAKOSOVO
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BOSNIA amp HERZ
HUNGARY
SLOVENIACROATIA
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016
SURVEY FINDINGS
Regime Type
Consolidated Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)
Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)
Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)
Total
7
6
6
3
7
29
No of countries
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 227
CONTENTS
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact 983089
Turning o Xenophobia in Cenral Europe 983094
Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis 983096
Ukrainersquos Pivoal Year 983089983088
The EUrsquos Dilemma in he Balkans 983089983089
From Dicaorship o Dynasy 983089983094
Elecions 983090983088983089983094 983089983096
Map of Regime Types 983089983090
Methodology 983090983088
Category and Democracy Score Summary 983090983089
Democracy Score History by Region 983090983090
Average Regional Category Scores 983090983091
ON THE COVER
Hungarian soldiers wih barbed-wire encing on he border
wih Slovenia in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 Photo by Jure Makovec
RESEARCH AND EDITORIAL TEAM
Nae Schenkkan is projec direcor o Nations in Transit Senior
Researcher Zselyke Csaky and Research Associae Anna Bar
conribued o his bookle
2
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 327
While illiberal naionalism rose in Europe wih Cenral
European leaders closing borders and denounc-
ing reugees and migrans as a hrea o he naion
financial pressures brough abou by alling oil prices
and worker remitances undermined he economies
o Russia and mos ormer Sovie saes The risk is
ha hese separae developmens could convergewih he collapse o Eurasian saes adding o Europersquos
growing lis o roubles
Since 983089983097983097983093 Nations in Transit has racked he prog-
ress and regression o democracy in Cenral Europe
he Balkans and Eurasia Daa rom he las decade
presen a grim porrai o decline Weighed or popu-
laion he average Democracy Score in he region has
declined or 983089983090 years in a row A sark reurn o con-
solidaed auhoriarianism in Russia which accouns
or 983091983093 percen o he regionrsquos populaion has been
he op driver o he decline Bu he problem goes
well beyond Russia The region has had more declines
han improvemens every year since 983090983088983088983095 No a
single subregionmdashCenral Europe he Balkans or Eur-
asiamdashhas improved overall since 983090983088983089983089 These rends
have now coalesced ino undamenal hreas o he
regional order ha bode ill or 983090983088983089983094 and beyond
Europe in questionEuropean insiuions have aced a growing crisis o
confidence since 983090983088983088983096 riggered firs by he ongoing
sruggle o wind down he eurozone deb crisis Buhe increased flow o reugees and migrans rom he
Middle Eas and Norh Arica in 983090983088983089983093 presened he
European Union and is leading governmens wih an
emergency ha could no be conained wih hal-
measures or delay and he disjoined response hey
offered was plainly inadequae
Europersquos disuniy lef he field open or populiss
Leading poliicians in Cenral Europemdashbacked by
some counerpars in Wesern Europemdashembraced xe-
nophobia and naionalism posiioning hemselves as
proecors o heir counriesrsquo Chrisian ideniy agains
an ldquoinvasionrdquo o Muslims The challenge o Europe ha
or years has been embodied by he brazen illiberal-
ism o Hungaryrsquos Vikor Orbaacuten is no longer concen-
raed in a single counry i is becoming he preerred
Nations in Transit 2016Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
Europe and Eurasia ended 983090983088983089983093 mired in institutional and economic
crises that threatened both the survival of the European Union and
the stability of Eurasiarsquos entrenched dictatorships
wwwreedomhouseorg 1
by Nae Schenkkan
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 427
approach among he saes ha joined he EU afer
983090983088983088983088 Wha used o be ringe alk o he possible col-
lapse o he union is now widely discussed
Driven by Hungaryrsquos rapid backsliding Nations in Tran-
sitrsquos average Democracy Score or Cenral Europe has
declined 983089983090 percen rom is peak in 983090983088983088983094 Moreover
he Law and Jusice paryrsquos moves o rapidly akeconrol o sae insiuions and weaken checks and
balances in Poland damaged ha counryrsquos score in
983090983088983089983093 and porend urher declines in 983090983088983089983094
In he Balkans he leaders o Serbia Macedonia and
Monenegro have urned he EUrsquos disarray o heir
advanage rusing ha is longing or sabiliy will ou-
weigh clear evidence o individual poliicians and par-
ies capuring he sae o promoe heir own ineress
Despie allegaions o voe rigging corrupion and
raud ha promped Macedoniarsquos larges proess
in years ormer prime miniser Nikola Gruevski has
salled implemenaion o an EU-brokered reorm dea
and appears likely o reurn o power hrough early
elecions now scheduled or June In Serbia Prime
Miniser Aleksandar Vučić successully opened acces
sion negoiaions wih he EU even as he accused he
blocrsquos represenaive o unding invesigaive journal-
iss o undermine him Monenegro opened six new
chapers in is accession negoiaions and received
a ormal inviaion o join NATO bu i is mired in cor-
rupion under Prime Miniser Milo ETHukanović whohas run he counry in and ou o office since 983089983097983097983089
Afer subsanial progress rom 983090983088983088983092 o 983090983088983089983088 he
Balkans subregion has declined six years in a row and
is average Democracy Score is he same as i was in
983090983088983088983092 Wih he excepion o Albania he scores o all
he subregionrsquos EU candidaes and poenial candidae
are declining no improvingmdasha disurbing indicaor o
heir level o commimen o EU sandards
Number of changes in DS per year average changes weighted and unweighted for population
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
20
6
4
2
0
12
10
8
18
16
14
Improved Neutral Declined Average Score Weighted Score
Total number of changes in category scores Democracy Score
6
4
4
5
5
7
6
Europersquos disuniy lef he field
open or populiss
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
2
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 527
Eurasia on the brinkIn he Eurasian hal o he Nations in Transit region
he collapse in global commodiy prices especially
oil drove Russia ino recession and riggered similarly
desperae currency crises and budge shoralls in he
perosaes o Azerbaijan Turkmenisan and Kazakh-
san The decline rippled hrough he non-energyeconomies o he Eurasian periphery ha are depen-
den on Russia hrough subsidies and migran labor
Belarus Kyrgyzsan Tajikisan and Uzbekisan
Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed by he ac
ha vial sae insiuions have been hollowed ou
over decades The lack o ransparency accounabiliy
and checks and balances has lef he dicaors o he
region saddled wih bloaed indebed and deeply cor-
rup sae enerprises buil on high commodiy prices
Pety corrupion and official predaion weigh down
weak privae secors As we wrie in early 983090983088983089983094 banksare being shutered and Inernaional Moneary Fund
(IMF) delegaions are ouring he region on emergency
evaluaion missions I oil prices say low hroughou
983090983088983089983094 Eurasiarsquos much-vauned auhoriarian sabiliy
could come o a dramaic end
The majoriy o Eurasian leaders have responded wih
measures inended o ensure ha nohing hreaens
heir rule Vladimir Puinrsquos naked embrace o auocracy
since his reurn o he presidency in 983090983088983089983090 deepened
in 983090983088983089983093 wih an ever-harsher crackdown on civil soci-
ey and poliical organizing Applicaion o he ldquooreignagensrdquo law drove civic organizaions abroad or under-
ground and he lis o poliical prisoners coninued o
grow Russian ldquoinnovaionsrdquo in auhoriarianism such
as resricions on nongovernmenal organizaions
spread urher wihin Eurasia in some cases hrough
imiaion and in some cases hrough acive Russian
effors Wih he economic siuaion becoming more
desperae and he chance o success in Ukraine more
disan Puin opened a new ron in his challenge o
he Wes by launching miliary operaions in Syria o
back Presiden Bashar al-Assad
Tajikisan pursued one o he fierces consolidaions
o power he region has seen in he las decade ban-
ning he main opposiion pary and imprisoning is
leadership One opposiion leader Umarali Kuvvaov
was assassinaed in Isanbul Kazakhsanrsquos Presiden
Nursulan Nazarbayev held early elecions o rea-
firm his mandae while signing a new law o increase
conrol over civil sociey Azerbaijan coninued a
crackdown ha began in he summer o 983090983088983089983092 marked
in 983090983088983089983093 by he senencing o he counryrsquos mos
prominen invesigaive journalis Khadija Ismayilova
o seven and a hal years in prison
Showing his ypical Machiavellian flexibiliy Belarusrsquos
Presiden Alyaksandr Lukashenka ook he opposie
ack by reeing poliical prisoners and allowing mild
criicism ahead o a presidenial elecion in Ocober
in an effor o cour he EU and replace he paron-
Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed
by he ac ha vial sae insiuions
have been hollowed ou over decades
Normalized subregional Democracy Scores
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGE IN DEMOCRACY SCOREAVERAGES BY REGION
rsquo04 rsquo05 rsquo06 rsquo07 rsquo08 rsquo09 rsquo10 rsquo11 rsquo12 rsquo13 rsquo14 rsquo15 rsquo16
-040
-035
-030
-025
-020
-015
-010
-005
000
005
010
015
020
CentralEurope
Balkan
Eurasia
Averagechange
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
3
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 627
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 OVERVIEW OF RATINGS CHANGES
COUNTRY DS 2016 (DS 2015 ) EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO
Albania 414
Bosnia and Herzegovina 450 (446)Croatia 368
Kosovo 507 (514)
Macedonia 429 (407)
Montenegro 393 (389)
Serbia 375 (368)
Bulgaria 325 (329)
Czech Republic 221
Estonia 193 (196)Hungary 329 (318)
Latvia 207
Lithuania 232 (236)
Poland 232 (221)
Romania 346
Slovakia 261 (264)
Slovenia 200 (193)
Armenia 536
Azerbaijan 686 (675)
Belarus 664 (671)
Georgia 461 (464)
Kazakhstan 661
Kyrgyzstan 589 (593)
Moldova 489 (486)
Russia 650 (646)
Tajikistan 654 (639)
Turkmenistan 693
Ukraine 468 (475)
Uzbekistan 693
B A L K A N S
C E N T R A L E U R O P E
E U R A S I A
Decline Improvemen Unchanged
The NIT ratings arebased on a scale of 983089 to983095 with 983089 representing
the highest level ofdemocratic progressand 983095 the lowestThe NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from983089 January through 983091983089December 983090983088983089983093
Categories EP ndash Electoral Process CS ndash Civil Society IM ndash Independent Media NDG ndash National Democratic Governance
LDG ndash Local Democratic Governance JFI ndash Judicial Framework and Independence CO ndash Corruption DS ndash Democracy Score
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
4
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 727
age ha Russia can no longer provide The cosmeic
ldquohawrdquo worked The EU has lifed sancions and he
IMF is in alks o prop up he economy
Muddling throughEven in a dark year here are small reasons or hope
Civil socieyndashdriven effors o uproo a corrup sysemin Ukraine showed inermiten progress in 983090983088983089983093 wih
he governmen enjoying relaive sabiliy and laying
he groundwork or insiuional reorms in he judi-
ciary he prosecuorrsquos office and anicorrupion bod-
ies So ar he EU and democraic donor governmens
have remained firm in making assisance condiional
on reorms and i is vial ha his approach coninue
les enrenched elies urn such aid ino ye anoher
embezzlemen scheme Ukraine is and should be he
op prioriy or reorm effors in he region and aid
mus no become a blank check or is leaders The
same is rue or Moldova where he EU and is allies
sill have a chance o build on popular ourage over
he 983090983088983089983092 hef o 983076983089 billion rom he counryrsquos banks
and orce he sae o finally ackle corrupion
In Georgia despie he poliicizaion o high-profile
cases he judiciary has improved a he day-o-day
level offering a posiive sign ha even in a polarized
sysem srucural reorm may sill have momenum
Parliamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983094 will be a major es
o he durabiliy o his rend Kyrgyzsan held on-
schedule elecions in Ocober ha improved mod-
esly on is previous round in 983090983088983089983088 Alhough here is
disurbing evidence o consolidaion o power around
Presiden Almazbek Aambayev he elecoral process
was open enough ha his pary could no secure a
majoriy in he parliamen Kosovo he wors perorm-
er in he Balkans or years made some progress on
insiuion building in 983090983088983089983093 alhough a serious crisis
beween he opposiion and governmen brough he
parliamen o a sandsill lae in he year hreaening
o cripple he governmenrsquos work in 983090983088983089983094
Rising to the challengeIn Europe and Eurasia no o menion he Unied
Saes he poliicians who sand ou oday are he oneswih he paricularis plaorms and he easy answersmdash
build a wall crush he erroriss proec he aherland
I is no enough o say ha hese populiss are doomed
o ail ha heir disregard or checks and balances or
heir dismissal o basic economics will evenually be
heir undoing The damage hey do can live on long
pas heir ime on he poliical sage
Europe mus choose beween creaing accoun-
able mechanisms wih enough power o address
undamenally supranaional issues or waching as
individual member saes ake apar he union piece
by piece On migraion he EUrsquos March 983090983088983089983094 deal wih
Turkey neiher solves he problem nor complies wih
inernaional law By graning accession progress o
Turkeyrsquos deeply auhoriarian governmen in exchangeor a crackdown on reugees he EU has undermined
is moral auhoriy and lef isel vulnerable o black-
mail A leas on his ron he Hungary modelmdasho
unilaeral border conrols dismissal o inernaional
law and sigmaizaion o ousidersmdashappears o be
winning
Paradoxically despie he EUrsquos ailures on migraion
here are signs ha i is gaining asseriveness on good
governmen elsewhere For candidae counries ac-
cession crieria have grown more sringen For mem-
bers he relaive success o he unionrsquos Cooperaion
and Verificaion Mechanism in encouraging Romania
o curb corrupion and he early invocaion o he
EUrsquos new rule-o-law mechanism regarding Poland
show ha here is hope or more accounabiliy wihin
he bloc
Afer an iniial hesiaion he Unied Saes has done
an admirable job o supporing ar-reaching reorms in
Ukraine which is sill he single mos imporan policy
or susaining democraizaion in he region The
decision o deploy more roops in Easern Europe and
he Balics is anoher posiive sign ha Washingon is
responding appropriaely o Moscowrsquos hreas
The Unied Saes is less well prepared for he moresuble challenge of prevening backsliding inside he EU
and in he Balkans The concep of a Europe ldquowhole and
freerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed o recognize
he inernal hreas o Europersquos uniy and libery namely
he reurn of naionalism and he dismanling of checks
and balances o allow sae capure A forward-looking
US policy will suppor Europe no only agains exernal
aggression bu also agains he dangers posed by grand
corrupion and illiberalism a home
The concep o a Europe ldquowhole and
reerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed
o recognize he inernal hreaso Europersquos uniy and libery
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
5
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827
In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished
hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion
and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-
pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-
ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem
solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he
Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland
and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-
rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-
ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades
VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu
he facual poin is ha all he
erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-
graed o he European Unionrdquo
Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-
oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o
score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-
lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o
European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral
European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-
phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir
posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary
poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences
MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being
organized by he Muslim Broh-
erhood using financial means
from a number of saeshellip The
Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-
rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a
growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo
The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries
share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa
o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088
or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in
Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia
and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-
cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir
populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-
Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe
ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism
or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz
pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in
opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical
discourse in boh counries
ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian
counry we canno olerae
an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088
Muslim immigrans who would
like o sar building mosques
all over our land and rying o change he naure
culure and values o he saerdquo
Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries
Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous
in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey
provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech
presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader
Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion
o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a
significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-
back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains
he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope
or he region
JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of
parasites and protozoa which hellip
while not dangerous in the or-
ganisms of these people could
be dangerous hererdquo
The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders
is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified
acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on
liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have
also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-
cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-
raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed
rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin
proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as
an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
6
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927
Hungary drives the decline
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Latvia
EstoniaSlovenia
Czech Republic
Poland
Lithuania
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Hungary
Romania
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10 Regime Type
Consolidated
Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated
Democracy (SCD)
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
7
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027
Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis
A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil
prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced
hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-
ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12 Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES
2013 2014 2015
Source World Bank
TurkmenistanUzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
GeorgiaAzerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
PERCENTAGE OF
REGIONAL GDP
74
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
8
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127
Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013
$20
$30
$110
$120
200
100
0
180
160
140
120
80
60
40
20
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar
SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL
UAH
GEL
AZN
KGS
TJS
KZT
BYR
RUB
MDL
Brent Oil Price
Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks
201520142013
ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan
REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR
Percent decline 2014-2015
Millions of USD
0
$1000
$2000
$3000
$4000
$5000
$6000
$7000
-70
-75
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
9
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227
Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year
The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when
he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced
an associaion agreemen wih he European Union
All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry
oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on
he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how
Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in
he official accession process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
JudicialFrameworkand Independence
Local Democratic
Governance
National
DemocraticGovernance
IndependentMedia
Civil Society
Electoral Process
Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates
How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union
While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o
EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-
ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial
candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen
media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic
governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-
pendence and naional democraic governance wih
he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen
insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas
remain under occupaion
Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-
ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he
judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy
Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen
expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could
sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos
office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-
onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he
counry is o reain US and European suppor
Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which
includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088
percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b
implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h
need or complex consiuional changes o undergird
i These amendmens were submited o he Con-
siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In
addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion
such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-
man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he
proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence
during he revoluion
The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching
Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he
poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-
mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or
economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona
Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he
nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-
ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing
corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress
coninues
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU
Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
10
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327
The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans
Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094
years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-
pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he
appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process
Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and
Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-
orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih
he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where
i was in 983090983088983088983092
The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance
beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans
and pressing or convergence wih European norms
Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu
in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he
hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes
as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he
Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o
naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy
has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an
-03
-02
-01
00
01
02
03
04
05
Average
Serbia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Kosovo
Croatia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Albania
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i
is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible
wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage
ha Dayon encourages
The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or
membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-
naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-
sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made
some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular
inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example
o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing
atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly
hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU
visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like
Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue
In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical
srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook
heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter
choice
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS
Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
11
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427
wwwfreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
13
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
12
The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic
development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy
Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the
2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration
from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime
types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-
consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
BELARUS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECH REP
SLOVAKIA
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
MACEDONIA
ALBANIAKOSOVO
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BOSNIA amp HERZ
HUNGARY
SLOVENIACROATIA
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016
SURVEY FINDINGS
Regime Type
Consolidated Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)
Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)
Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)
Total
7
6
6
3
7
29
No of countries
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 327
While illiberal naionalism rose in Europe wih Cenral
European leaders closing borders and denounc-
ing reugees and migrans as a hrea o he naion
financial pressures brough abou by alling oil prices
and worker remitances undermined he economies
o Russia and mos ormer Sovie saes The risk is
ha hese separae developmens could convergewih he collapse o Eurasian saes adding o Europersquos
growing lis o roubles
Since 983089983097983097983093 Nations in Transit has racked he prog-
ress and regression o democracy in Cenral Europe
he Balkans and Eurasia Daa rom he las decade
presen a grim porrai o decline Weighed or popu-
laion he average Democracy Score in he region has
declined or 983089983090 years in a row A sark reurn o con-
solidaed auhoriarianism in Russia which accouns
or 983091983093 percen o he regionrsquos populaion has been
he op driver o he decline Bu he problem goes
well beyond Russia The region has had more declines
han improvemens every year since 983090983088983088983095 No a
single subregionmdashCenral Europe he Balkans or Eur-
asiamdashhas improved overall since 983090983088983089983089 These rends
have now coalesced ino undamenal hreas o he
regional order ha bode ill or 983090983088983089983094 and beyond
Europe in questionEuropean insiuions have aced a growing crisis o
confidence since 983090983088983088983096 riggered firs by he ongoing
sruggle o wind down he eurozone deb crisis Buhe increased flow o reugees and migrans rom he
Middle Eas and Norh Arica in 983090983088983089983093 presened he
European Union and is leading governmens wih an
emergency ha could no be conained wih hal-
measures or delay and he disjoined response hey
offered was plainly inadequae
Europersquos disuniy lef he field open or populiss
Leading poliicians in Cenral Europemdashbacked by
some counerpars in Wesern Europemdashembraced xe-
nophobia and naionalism posiioning hemselves as
proecors o heir counriesrsquo Chrisian ideniy agains
an ldquoinvasionrdquo o Muslims The challenge o Europe ha
or years has been embodied by he brazen illiberal-
ism o Hungaryrsquos Vikor Orbaacuten is no longer concen-
raed in a single counry i is becoming he preerred
Nations in Transit 2016Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
Europe and Eurasia ended 983090983088983089983093 mired in institutional and economic
crises that threatened both the survival of the European Union and
the stability of Eurasiarsquos entrenched dictatorships
wwwreedomhouseorg 1
by Nae Schenkkan
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 427
approach among he saes ha joined he EU afer
983090983088983088983088 Wha used o be ringe alk o he possible col-
lapse o he union is now widely discussed
Driven by Hungaryrsquos rapid backsliding Nations in Tran-
sitrsquos average Democracy Score or Cenral Europe has
declined 983089983090 percen rom is peak in 983090983088983088983094 Moreover
he Law and Jusice paryrsquos moves o rapidly akeconrol o sae insiuions and weaken checks and
balances in Poland damaged ha counryrsquos score in
983090983088983089983093 and porend urher declines in 983090983088983089983094
In he Balkans he leaders o Serbia Macedonia and
Monenegro have urned he EUrsquos disarray o heir
advanage rusing ha is longing or sabiliy will ou-
weigh clear evidence o individual poliicians and par-
ies capuring he sae o promoe heir own ineress
Despie allegaions o voe rigging corrupion and
raud ha promped Macedoniarsquos larges proess
in years ormer prime miniser Nikola Gruevski has
salled implemenaion o an EU-brokered reorm dea
and appears likely o reurn o power hrough early
elecions now scheduled or June In Serbia Prime
Miniser Aleksandar Vučić successully opened acces
sion negoiaions wih he EU even as he accused he
blocrsquos represenaive o unding invesigaive journal-
iss o undermine him Monenegro opened six new
chapers in is accession negoiaions and received
a ormal inviaion o join NATO bu i is mired in cor-
rupion under Prime Miniser Milo ETHukanović whohas run he counry in and ou o office since 983089983097983097983089
Afer subsanial progress rom 983090983088983088983092 o 983090983088983089983088 he
Balkans subregion has declined six years in a row and
is average Democracy Score is he same as i was in
983090983088983088983092 Wih he excepion o Albania he scores o all
he subregionrsquos EU candidaes and poenial candidae
are declining no improvingmdasha disurbing indicaor o
heir level o commimen o EU sandards
Number of changes in DS per year average changes weighted and unweighted for population
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
20
6
4
2
0
12
10
8
18
16
14
Improved Neutral Declined Average Score Weighted Score
Total number of changes in category scores Democracy Score
6
4
4
5
5
7
6
Europersquos disuniy lef he field
open or populiss
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
2
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 527
Eurasia on the brinkIn he Eurasian hal o he Nations in Transit region
he collapse in global commodiy prices especially
oil drove Russia ino recession and riggered similarly
desperae currency crises and budge shoralls in he
perosaes o Azerbaijan Turkmenisan and Kazakh-
san The decline rippled hrough he non-energyeconomies o he Eurasian periphery ha are depen-
den on Russia hrough subsidies and migran labor
Belarus Kyrgyzsan Tajikisan and Uzbekisan
Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed by he ac
ha vial sae insiuions have been hollowed ou
over decades The lack o ransparency accounabiliy
and checks and balances has lef he dicaors o he
region saddled wih bloaed indebed and deeply cor-
rup sae enerprises buil on high commodiy prices
Pety corrupion and official predaion weigh down
weak privae secors As we wrie in early 983090983088983089983094 banksare being shutered and Inernaional Moneary Fund
(IMF) delegaions are ouring he region on emergency
evaluaion missions I oil prices say low hroughou
983090983088983089983094 Eurasiarsquos much-vauned auhoriarian sabiliy
could come o a dramaic end
The majoriy o Eurasian leaders have responded wih
measures inended o ensure ha nohing hreaens
heir rule Vladimir Puinrsquos naked embrace o auocracy
since his reurn o he presidency in 983090983088983089983090 deepened
in 983090983088983089983093 wih an ever-harsher crackdown on civil soci-
ey and poliical organizing Applicaion o he ldquooreignagensrdquo law drove civic organizaions abroad or under-
ground and he lis o poliical prisoners coninued o
grow Russian ldquoinnovaionsrdquo in auhoriarianism such
as resricions on nongovernmenal organizaions
spread urher wihin Eurasia in some cases hrough
imiaion and in some cases hrough acive Russian
effors Wih he economic siuaion becoming more
desperae and he chance o success in Ukraine more
disan Puin opened a new ron in his challenge o
he Wes by launching miliary operaions in Syria o
back Presiden Bashar al-Assad
Tajikisan pursued one o he fierces consolidaions
o power he region has seen in he las decade ban-
ning he main opposiion pary and imprisoning is
leadership One opposiion leader Umarali Kuvvaov
was assassinaed in Isanbul Kazakhsanrsquos Presiden
Nursulan Nazarbayev held early elecions o rea-
firm his mandae while signing a new law o increase
conrol over civil sociey Azerbaijan coninued a
crackdown ha began in he summer o 983090983088983089983092 marked
in 983090983088983089983093 by he senencing o he counryrsquos mos
prominen invesigaive journalis Khadija Ismayilova
o seven and a hal years in prison
Showing his ypical Machiavellian flexibiliy Belarusrsquos
Presiden Alyaksandr Lukashenka ook he opposie
ack by reeing poliical prisoners and allowing mild
criicism ahead o a presidenial elecion in Ocober
in an effor o cour he EU and replace he paron-
Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed
by he ac ha vial sae insiuions
have been hollowed ou over decades
Normalized subregional Democracy Scores
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGE IN DEMOCRACY SCOREAVERAGES BY REGION
rsquo04 rsquo05 rsquo06 rsquo07 rsquo08 rsquo09 rsquo10 rsquo11 rsquo12 rsquo13 rsquo14 rsquo15 rsquo16
-040
-035
-030
-025
-020
-015
-010
-005
000
005
010
015
020
CentralEurope
Balkan
Eurasia
Averagechange
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
3
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 627
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 OVERVIEW OF RATINGS CHANGES
COUNTRY DS 2016 (DS 2015 ) EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO
Albania 414
Bosnia and Herzegovina 450 (446)Croatia 368
Kosovo 507 (514)
Macedonia 429 (407)
Montenegro 393 (389)
Serbia 375 (368)
Bulgaria 325 (329)
Czech Republic 221
Estonia 193 (196)Hungary 329 (318)
Latvia 207
Lithuania 232 (236)
Poland 232 (221)
Romania 346
Slovakia 261 (264)
Slovenia 200 (193)
Armenia 536
Azerbaijan 686 (675)
Belarus 664 (671)
Georgia 461 (464)
Kazakhstan 661
Kyrgyzstan 589 (593)
Moldova 489 (486)
Russia 650 (646)
Tajikistan 654 (639)
Turkmenistan 693
Ukraine 468 (475)
Uzbekistan 693
B A L K A N S
C E N T R A L E U R O P E
E U R A S I A
Decline Improvemen Unchanged
The NIT ratings arebased on a scale of 983089 to983095 with 983089 representing
the highest level ofdemocratic progressand 983095 the lowestThe NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from983089 January through 983091983089December 983090983088983089983093
Categories EP ndash Electoral Process CS ndash Civil Society IM ndash Independent Media NDG ndash National Democratic Governance
LDG ndash Local Democratic Governance JFI ndash Judicial Framework and Independence CO ndash Corruption DS ndash Democracy Score
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
4
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 727
age ha Russia can no longer provide The cosmeic
ldquohawrdquo worked The EU has lifed sancions and he
IMF is in alks o prop up he economy
Muddling throughEven in a dark year here are small reasons or hope
Civil socieyndashdriven effors o uproo a corrup sysemin Ukraine showed inermiten progress in 983090983088983089983093 wih
he governmen enjoying relaive sabiliy and laying
he groundwork or insiuional reorms in he judi-
ciary he prosecuorrsquos office and anicorrupion bod-
ies So ar he EU and democraic donor governmens
have remained firm in making assisance condiional
on reorms and i is vial ha his approach coninue
les enrenched elies urn such aid ino ye anoher
embezzlemen scheme Ukraine is and should be he
op prioriy or reorm effors in he region and aid
mus no become a blank check or is leaders The
same is rue or Moldova where he EU and is allies
sill have a chance o build on popular ourage over
he 983090983088983089983092 hef o 983076983089 billion rom he counryrsquos banks
and orce he sae o finally ackle corrupion
In Georgia despie he poliicizaion o high-profile
cases he judiciary has improved a he day-o-day
level offering a posiive sign ha even in a polarized
sysem srucural reorm may sill have momenum
Parliamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983094 will be a major es
o he durabiliy o his rend Kyrgyzsan held on-
schedule elecions in Ocober ha improved mod-
esly on is previous round in 983090983088983089983088 Alhough here is
disurbing evidence o consolidaion o power around
Presiden Almazbek Aambayev he elecoral process
was open enough ha his pary could no secure a
majoriy in he parliamen Kosovo he wors perorm-
er in he Balkans or years made some progress on
insiuion building in 983090983088983089983093 alhough a serious crisis
beween he opposiion and governmen brough he
parliamen o a sandsill lae in he year hreaening
o cripple he governmenrsquos work in 983090983088983089983094
Rising to the challengeIn Europe and Eurasia no o menion he Unied
Saes he poliicians who sand ou oday are he oneswih he paricularis plaorms and he easy answersmdash
build a wall crush he erroriss proec he aherland
I is no enough o say ha hese populiss are doomed
o ail ha heir disregard or checks and balances or
heir dismissal o basic economics will evenually be
heir undoing The damage hey do can live on long
pas heir ime on he poliical sage
Europe mus choose beween creaing accoun-
able mechanisms wih enough power o address
undamenally supranaional issues or waching as
individual member saes ake apar he union piece
by piece On migraion he EUrsquos March 983090983088983089983094 deal wih
Turkey neiher solves he problem nor complies wih
inernaional law By graning accession progress o
Turkeyrsquos deeply auhoriarian governmen in exchangeor a crackdown on reugees he EU has undermined
is moral auhoriy and lef isel vulnerable o black-
mail A leas on his ron he Hungary modelmdasho
unilaeral border conrols dismissal o inernaional
law and sigmaizaion o ousidersmdashappears o be
winning
Paradoxically despie he EUrsquos ailures on migraion
here are signs ha i is gaining asseriveness on good
governmen elsewhere For candidae counries ac-
cession crieria have grown more sringen For mem-
bers he relaive success o he unionrsquos Cooperaion
and Verificaion Mechanism in encouraging Romania
o curb corrupion and he early invocaion o he
EUrsquos new rule-o-law mechanism regarding Poland
show ha here is hope or more accounabiliy wihin
he bloc
Afer an iniial hesiaion he Unied Saes has done
an admirable job o supporing ar-reaching reorms in
Ukraine which is sill he single mos imporan policy
or susaining democraizaion in he region The
decision o deploy more roops in Easern Europe and
he Balics is anoher posiive sign ha Washingon is
responding appropriaely o Moscowrsquos hreas
The Unied Saes is less well prepared for he moresuble challenge of prevening backsliding inside he EU
and in he Balkans The concep of a Europe ldquowhole and
freerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed o recognize
he inernal hreas o Europersquos uniy and libery namely
he reurn of naionalism and he dismanling of checks
and balances o allow sae capure A forward-looking
US policy will suppor Europe no only agains exernal
aggression bu also agains he dangers posed by grand
corrupion and illiberalism a home
The concep o a Europe ldquowhole and
reerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed
o recognize he inernal hreaso Europersquos uniy and libery
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
5
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827
In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished
hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion
and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-
pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-
ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem
solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he
Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland
and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-
rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-
ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades
VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu
he facual poin is ha all he
erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-
graed o he European Unionrdquo
Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-
oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o
score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-
lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o
European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral
European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-
phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir
posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary
poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences
MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being
organized by he Muslim Broh-
erhood using financial means
from a number of saeshellip The
Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-
rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a
growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo
The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries
share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa
o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088
or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in
Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia
and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-
cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir
populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-
Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe
ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism
or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz
pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in
opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical
discourse in boh counries
ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian
counry we canno olerae
an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088
Muslim immigrans who would
like o sar building mosques
all over our land and rying o change he naure
culure and values o he saerdquo
Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries
Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous
in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey
provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech
presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader
Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion
o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a
significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-
back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains
he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope
or he region
JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of
parasites and protozoa which hellip
while not dangerous in the or-
ganisms of these people could
be dangerous hererdquo
The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders
is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified
acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on
liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have
also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-
cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-
raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed
rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin
proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as
an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
6
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927
Hungary drives the decline
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Latvia
EstoniaSlovenia
Czech Republic
Poland
Lithuania
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Hungary
Romania
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10 Regime Type
Consolidated
Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated
Democracy (SCD)
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
7
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027
Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis
A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil
prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced
hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-
ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12 Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES
2013 2014 2015
Source World Bank
TurkmenistanUzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
GeorgiaAzerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
PERCENTAGE OF
REGIONAL GDP
74
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
8
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127
Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013
$20
$30
$110
$120
200
100
0
180
160
140
120
80
60
40
20
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar
SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL
UAH
GEL
AZN
KGS
TJS
KZT
BYR
RUB
MDL
Brent Oil Price
Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks
201520142013
ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan
REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR
Percent decline 2014-2015
Millions of USD
0
$1000
$2000
$3000
$4000
$5000
$6000
$7000
-70
-75
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
9
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227
Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year
The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when
he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced
an associaion agreemen wih he European Union
All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry
oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on
he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how
Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in
he official accession process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
JudicialFrameworkand Independence
Local Democratic
Governance
National
DemocraticGovernance
IndependentMedia
Civil Society
Electoral Process
Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates
How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union
While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o
EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-
ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial
candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen
media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic
governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-
pendence and naional democraic governance wih
he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen
insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas
remain under occupaion
Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-
ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he
judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy
Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen
expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could
sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos
office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-
onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he
counry is o reain US and European suppor
Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which
includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088
percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b
implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h
need or complex consiuional changes o undergird
i These amendmens were submited o he Con-
siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In
addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion
such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-
man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he
proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence
during he revoluion
The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching
Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he
poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-
mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or
economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona
Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he
nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-
ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing
corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress
coninues
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU
Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
10
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327
The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans
Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094
years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-
pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he
appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process
Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and
Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-
orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih
he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where
i was in 983090983088983088983092
The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance
beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans
and pressing or convergence wih European norms
Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu
in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he
hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes
as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he
Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o
naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy
has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an
-03
-02
-01
00
01
02
03
04
05
Average
Serbia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Kosovo
Croatia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Albania
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i
is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible
wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage
ha Dayon encourages
The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or
membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-
naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-
sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made
some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular
inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example
o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing
atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly
hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU
visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like
Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue
In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical
srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook
heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter
choice
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS
Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
11
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427
wwwfreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
13
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
12
The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic
development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy
Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the
2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration
from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime
types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-
consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
BELARUS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECH REP
SLOVAKIA
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
MACEDONIA
ALBANIAKOSOVO
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BOSNIA amp HERZ
HUNGARY
SLOVENIACROATIA
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016
SURVEY FINDINGS
Regime Type
Consolidated Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)
Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)
Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)
Total
7
6
6
3
7
29
No of countries
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 427
approach among he saes ha joined he EU afer
983090983088983088983088 Wha used o be ringe alk o he possible col-
lapse o he union is now widely discussed
Driven by Hungaryrsquos rapid backsliding Nations in Tran-
sitrsquos average Democracy Score or Cenral Europe has
declined 983089983090 percen rom is peak in 983090983088983088983094 Moreover
he Law and Jusice paryrsquos moves o rapidly akeconrol o sae insiuions and weaken checks and
balances in Poland damaged ha counryrsquos score in
983090983088983089983093 and porend urher declines in 983090983088983089983094
In he Balkans he leaders o Serbia Macedonia and
Monenegro have urned he EUrsquos disarray o heir
advanage rusing ha is longing or sabiliy will ou-
weigh clear evidence o individual poliicians and par-
ies capuring he sae o promoe heir own ineress
Despie allegaions o voe rigging corrupion and
raud ha promped Macedoniarsquos larges proess
in years ormer prime miniser Nikola Gruevski has
salled implemenaion o an EU-brokered reorm dea
and appears likely o reurn o power hrough early
elecions now scheduled or June In Serbia Prime
Miniser Aleksandar Vučić successully opened acces
sion negoiaions wih he EU even as he accused he
blocrsquos represenaive o unding invesigaive journal-
iss o undermine him Monenegro opened six new
chapers in is accession negoiaions and received
a ormal inviaion o join NATO bu i is mired in cor-
rupion under Prime Miniser Milo ETHukanović whohas run he counry in and ou o office since 983089983097983097983089
Afer subsanial progress rom 983090983088983088983092 o 983090983088983089983088 he
Balkans subregion has declined six years in a row and
is average Democracy Score is he same as i was in
983090983088983088983092 Wih he excepion o Albania he scores o all
he subregionrsquos EU candidaes and poenial candidae
are declining no improvingmdasha disurbing indicaor o
heir level o commimen o EU sandards
Number of changes in DS per year average changes weighted and unweighted for population
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
20
6
4
2
0
12
10
8
18
16
14
Improved Neutral Declined Average Score Weighted Score
Total number of changes in category scores Democracy Score
6
4
4
5
5
7
6
Europersquos disuniy lef he field
open or populiss
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
2
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 527
Eurasia on the brinkIn he Eurasian hal o he Nations in Transit region
he collapse in global commodiy prices especially
oil drove Russia ino recession and riggered similarly
desperae currency crises and budge shoralls in he
perosaes o Azerbaijan Turkmenisan and Kazakh-
san The decline rippled hrough he non-energyeconomies o he Eurasian periphery ha are depen-
den on Russia hrough subsidies and migran labor
Belarus Kyrgyzsan Tajikisan and Uzbekisan
Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed by he ac
ha vial sae insiuions have been hollowed ou
over decades The lack o ransparency accounabiliy
and checks and balances has lef he dicaors o he
region saddled wih bloaed indebed and deeply cor-
rup sae enerprises buil on high commodiy prices
Pety corrupion and official predaion weigh down
weak privae secors As we wrie in early 983090983088983089983094 banksare being shutered and Inernaional Moneary Fund
(IMF) delegaions are ouring he region on emergency
evaluaion missions I oil prices say low hroughou
983090983088983089983094 Eurasiarsquos much-vauned auhoriarian sabiliy
could come o a dramaic end
The majoriy o Eurasian leaders have responded wih
measures inended o ensure ha nohing hreaens
heir rule Vladimir Puinrsquos naked embrace o auocracy
since his reurn o he presidency in 983090983088983089983090 deepened
in 983090983088983089983093 wih an ever-harsher crackdown on civil soci-
ey and poliical organizing Applicaion o he ldquooreignagensrdquo law drove civic organizaions abroad or under-
ground and he lis o poliical prisoners coninued o
grow Russian ldquoinnovaionsrdquo in auhoriarianism such
as resricions on nongovernmenal organizaions
spread urher wihin Eurasia in some cases hrough
imiaion and in some cases hrough acive Russian
effors Wih he economic siuaion becoming more
desperae and he chance o success in Ukraine more
disan Puin opened a new ron in his challenge o
he Wes by launching miliary operaions in Syria o
back Presiden Bashar al-Assad
Tajikisan pursued one o he fierces consolidaions
o power he region has seen in he las decade ban-
ning he main opposiion pary and imprisoning is
leadership One opposiion leader Umarali Kuvvaov
was assassinaed in Isanbul Kazakhsanrsquos Presiden
Nursulan Nazarbayev held early elecions o rea-
firm his mandae while signing a new law o increase
conrol over civil sociey Azerbaijan coninued a
crackdown ha began in he summer o 983090983088983089983092 marked
in 983090983088983089983093 by he senencing o he counryrsquos mos
prominen invesigaive journalis Khadija Ismayilova
o seven and a hal years in prison
Showing his ypical Machiavellian flexibiliy Belarusrsquos
Presiden Alyaksandr Lukashenka ook he opposie
ack by reeing poliical prisoners and allowing mild
criicism ahead o a presidenial elecion in Ocober
in an effor o cour he EU and replace he paron-
Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed
by he ac ha vial sae insiuions
have been hollowed ou over decades
Normalized subregional Democracy Scores
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGE IN DEMOCRACY SCOREAVERAGES BY REGION
rsquo04 rsquo05 rsquo06 rsquo07 rsquo08 rsquo09 rsquo10 rsquo11 rsquo12 rsquo13 rsquo14 rsquo15 rsquo16
-040
-035
-030
-025
-020
-015
-010
-005
000
005
010
015
020
CentralEurope
Balkan
Eurasia
Averagechange
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
3
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 627
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 OVERVIEW OF RATINGS CHANGES
COUNTRY DS 2016 (DS 2015 ) EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO
Albania 414
Bosnia and Herzegovina 450 (446)Croatia 368
Kosovo 507 (514)
Macedonia 429 (407)
Montenegro 393 (389)
Serbia 375 (368)
Bulgaria 325 (329)
Czech Republic 221
Estonia 193 (196)Hungary 329 (318)
Latvia 207
Lithuania 232 (236)
Poland 232 (221)
Romania 346
Slovakia 261 (264)
Slovenia 200 (193)
Armenia 536
Azerbaijan 686 (675)
Belarus 664 (671)
Georgia 461 (464)
Kazakhstan 661
Kyrgyzstan 589 (593)
Moldova 489 (486)
Russia 650 (646)
Tajikistan 654 (639)
Turkmenistan 693
Ukraine 468 (475)
Uzbekistan 693
B A L K A N S
C E N T R A L E U R O P E
E U R A S I A
Decline Improvemen Unchanged
The NIT ratings arebased on a scale of 983089 to983095 with 983089 representing
the highest level ofdemocratic progressand 983095 the lowestThe NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from983089 January through 983091983089December 983090983088983089983093
Categories EP ndash Electoral Process CS ndash Civil Society IM ndash Independent Media NDG ndash National Democratic Governance
LDG ndash Local Democratic Governance JFI ndash Judicial Framework and Independence CO ndash Corruption DS ndash Democracy Score
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
4
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 727
age ha Russia can no longer provide The cosmeic
ldquohawrdquo worked The EU has lifed sancions and he
IMF is in alks o prop up he economy
Muddling throughEven in a dark year here are small reasons or hope
Civil socieyndashdriven effors o uproo a corrup sysemin Ukraine showed inermiten progress in 983090983088983089983093 wih
he governmen enjoying relaive sabiliy and laying
he groundwork or insiuional reorms in he judi-
ciary he prosecuorrsquos office and anicorrupion bod-
ies So ar he EU and democraic donor governmens
have remained firm in making assisance condiional
on reorms and i is vial ha his approach coninue
les enrenched elies urn such aid ino ye anoher
embezzlemen scheme Ukraine is and should be he
op prioriy or reorm effors in he region and aid
mus no become a blank check or is leaders The
same is rue or Moldova where he EU and is allies
sill have a chance o build on popular ourage over
he 983090983088983089983092 hef o 983076983089 billion rom he counryrsquos banks
and orce he sae o finally ackle corrupion
In Georgia despie he poliicizaion o high-profile
cases he judiciary has improved a he day-o-day
level offering a posiive sign ha even in a polarized
sysem srucural reorm may sill have momenum
Parliamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983094 will be a major es
o he durabiliy o his rend Kyrgyzsan held on-
schedule elecions in Ocober ha improved mod-
esly on is previous round in 983090983088983089983088 Alhough here is
disurbing evidence o consolidaion o power around
Presiden Almazbek Aambayev he elecoral process
was open enough ha his pary could no secure a
majoriy in he parliamen Kosovo he wors perorm-
er in he Balkans or years made some progress on
insiuion building in 983090983088983089983093 alhough a serious crisis
beween he opposiion and governmen brough he
parliamen o a sandsill lae in he year hreaening
o cripple he governmenrsquos work in 983090983088983089983094
Rising to the challengeIn Europe and Eurasia no o menion he Unied
Saes he poliicians who sand ou oday are he oneswih he paricularis plaorms and he easy answersmdash
build a wall crush he erroriss proec he aherland
I is no enough o say ha hese populiss are doomed
o ail ha heir disregard or checks and balances or
heir dismissal o basic economics will evenually be
heir undoing The damage hey do can live on long
pas heir ime on he poliical sage
Europe mus choose beween creaing accoun-
able mechanisms wih enough power o address
undamenally supranaional issues or waching as
individual member saes ake apar he union piece
by piece On migraion he EUrsquos March 983090983088983089983094 deal wih
Turkey neiher solves he problem nor complies wih
inernaional law By graning accession progress o
Turkeyrsquos deeply auhoriarian governmen in exchangeor a crackdown on reugees he EU has undermined
is moral auhoriy and lef isel vulnerable o black-
mail A leas on his ron he Hungary modelmdasho
unilaeral border conrols dismissal o inernaional
law and sigmaizaion o ousidersmdashappears o be
winning
Paradoxically despie he EUrsquos ailures on migraion
here are signs ha i is gaining asseriveness on good
governmen elsewhere For candidae counries ac-
cession crieria have grown more sringen For mem-
bers he relaive success o he unionrsquos Cooperaion
and Verificaion Mechanism in encouraging Romania
o curb corrupion and he early invocaion o he
EUrsquos new rule-o-law mechanism regarding Poland
show ha here is hope or more accounabiliy wihin
he bloc
Afer an iniial hesiaion he Unied Saes has done
an admirable job o supporing ar-reaching reorms in
Ukraine which is sill he single mos imporan policy
or susaining democraizaion in he region The
decision o deploy more roops in Easern Europe and
he Balics is anoher posiive sign ha Washingon is
responding appropriaely o Moscowrsquos hreas
The Unied Saes is less well prepared for he moresuble challenge of prevening backsliding inside he EU
and in he Balkans The concep of a Europe ldquowhole and
freerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed o recognize
he inernal hreas o Europersquos uniy and libery namely
he reurn of naionalism and he dismanling of checks
and balances o allow sae capure A forward-looking
US policy will suppor Europe no only agains exernal
aggression bu also agains he dangers posed by grand
corrupion and illiberalism a home
The concep o a Europe ldquowhole and
reerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed
o recognize he inernal hreaso Europersquos uniy and libery
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
5
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827
In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished
hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion
and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-
pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-
ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem
solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he
Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland
and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-
rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-
ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades
VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu
he facual poin is ha all he
erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-
graed o he European Unionrdquo
Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-
oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o
score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-
lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o
European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral
European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-
phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir
posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary
poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences
MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being
organized by he Muslim Broh-
erhood using financial means
from a number of saeshellip The
Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-
rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a
growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo
The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries
share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa
o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088
or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in
Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia
and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-
cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir
populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-
Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe
ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism
or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz
pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in
opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical
discourse in boh counries
ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian
counry we canno olerae
an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088
Muslim immigrans who would
like o sar building mosques
all over our land and rying o change he naure
culure and values o he saerdquo
Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries
Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous
in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey
provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech
presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader
Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion
o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a
significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-
back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains
he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope
or he region
JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of
parasites and protozoa which hellip
while not dangerous in the or-
ganisms of these people could
be dangerous hererdquo
The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders
is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified
acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on
liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have
also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-
cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-
raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed
rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin
proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as
an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
6
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927
Hungary drives the decline
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Latvia
EstoniaSlovenia
Czech Republic
Poland
Lithuania
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Hungary
Romania
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10 Regime Type
Consolidated
Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated
Democracy (SCD)
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
7
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027
Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis
A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil
prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced
hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-
ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12 Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES
2013 2014 2015
Source World Bank
TurkmenistanUzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
GeorgiaAzerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
PERCENTAGE OF
REGIONAL GDP
74
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
8
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127
Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013
$20
$30
$110
$120
200
100
0
180
160
140
120
80
60
40
20
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar
SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL
UAH
GEL
AZN
KGS
TJS
KZT
BYR
RUB
MDL
Brent Oil Price
Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks
201520142013
ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan
REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR
Percent decline 2014-2015
Millions of USD
0
$1000
$2000
$3000
$4000
$5000
$6000
$7000
-70
-75
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
9
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227
Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year
The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when
he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced
an associaion agreemen wih he European Union
All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry
oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on
he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how
Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in
he official accession process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
JudicialFrameworkand Independence
Local Democratic
Governance
National
DemocraticGovernance
IndependentMedia
Civil Society
Electoral Process
Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates
How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union
While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o
EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-
ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial
candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen
media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic
governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-
pendence and naional democraic governance wih
he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen
insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas
remain under occupaion
Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-
ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he
judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy
Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen
expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could
sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos
office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-
onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he
counry is o reain US and European suppor
Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which
includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088
percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b
implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h
need or complex consiuional changes o undergird
i These amendmens were submited o he Con-
siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In
addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion
such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-
man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he
proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence
during he revoluion
The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching
Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he
poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-
mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or
economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona
Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he
nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-
ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing
corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress
coninues
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU
Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
10
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327
The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans
Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094
years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-
pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he
appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process
Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and
Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-
orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih
he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where
i was in 983090983088983088983092
The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance
beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans
and pressing or convergence wih European norms
Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu
in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he
hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes
as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he
Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o
naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy
has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an
-03
-02
-01
00
01
02
03
04
05
Average
Serbia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Kosovo
Croatia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Albania
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i
is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible
wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage
ha Dayon encourages
The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or
membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-
naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-
sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made
some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular
inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example
o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing
atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly
hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU
visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like
Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue
In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical
srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook
heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter
choice
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS
Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
11
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427
wwwfreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
13
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
12
The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic
development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy
Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the
2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration
from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime
types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-
consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
BELARUS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECH REP
SLOVAKIA
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
MACEDONIA
ALBANIAKOSOVO
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BOSNIA amp HERZ
HUNGARY
SLOVENIACROATIA
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016
SURVEY FINDINGS
Regime Type
Consolidated Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)
Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)
Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)
Total
7
6
6
3
7
29
No of countries
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 527
Eurasia on the brinkIn he Eurasian hal o he Nations in Transit region
he collapse in global commodiy prices especially
oil drove Russia ino recession and riggered similarly
desperae currency crises and budge shoralls in he
perosaes o Azerbaijan Turkmenisan and Kazakh-
san The decline rippled hrough he non-energyeconomies o he Eurasian periphery ha are depen-
den on Russia hrough subsidies and migran labor
Belarus Kyrgyzsan Tajikisan and Uzbekisan
Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed by he ac
ha vial sae insiuions have been hollowed ou
over decades The lack o ransparency accounabiliy
and checks and balances has lef he dicaors o he
region saddled wih bloaed indebed and deeply cor-
rup sae enerprises buil on high commodiy prices
Pety corrupion and official predaion weigh down
weak privae secors As we wrie in early 983090983088983089983094 banksare being shutered and Inernaional Moneary Fund
(IMF) delegaions are ouring he region on emergency
evaluaion missions I oil prices say low hroughou
983090983088983089983094 Eurasiarsquos much-vauned auhoriarian sabiliy
could come o a dramaic end
The majoriy o Eurasian leaders have responded wih
measures inended o ensure ha nohing hreaens
heir rule Vladimir Puinrsquos naked embrace o auocracy
since his reurn o he presidency in 983090983088983089983090 deepened
in 983090983088983089983093 wih an ever-harsher crackdown on civil soci-
ey and poliical organizing Applicaion o he ldquooreignagensrdquo law drove civic organizaions abroad or under-
ground and he lis o poliical prisoners coninued o
grow Russian ldquoinnovaionsrdquo in auhoriarianism such
as resricions on nongovernmenal organizaions
spread urher wihin Eurasia in some cases hrough
imiaion and in some cases hrough acive Russian
effors Wih he economic siuaion becoming more
desperae and he chance o success in Ukraine more
disan Puin opened a new ron in his challenge o
he Wes by launching miliary operaions in Syria o
back Presiden Bashar al-Assad
Tajikisan pursued one o he fierces consolidaions
o power he region has seen in he las decade ban-
ning he main opposiion pary and imprisoning is
leadership One opposiion leader Umarali Kuvvaov
was assassinaed in Isanbul Kazakhsanrsquos Presiden
Nursulan Nazarbayev held early elecions o rea-
firm his mandae while signing a new law o increase
conrol over civil sociey Azerbaijan coninued a
crackdown ha began in he summer o 983090983088983089983092 marked
in 983090983088983089983093 by he senencing o he counryrsquos mos
prominen invesigaive journalis Khadija Ismayilova
o seven and a hal years in prison
Showing his ypical Machiavellian flexibiliy Belarusrsquos
Presiden Alyaksandr Lukashenka ook he opposie
ack by reeing poliical prisoners and allowing mild
criicism ahead o a presidenial elecion in Ocober
in an effor o cour he EU and replace he paron-
Eurasiarsquos economic crisis is exacerbaed
by he ac ha vial sae insiuions
have been hollowed ou over decades
Normalized subregional Democracy Scores
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CHANGE IN DEMOCRACY SCOREAVERAGES BY REGION
rsquo04 rsquo05 rsquo06 rsquo07 rsquo08 rsquo09 rsquo10 rsquo11 rsquo12 rsquo13 rsquo14 rsquo15 rsquo16
-040
-035
-030
-025
-020
-015
-010
-005
000
005
010
015
020
CentralEurope
Balkan
Eurasia
Averagechange
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
3
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 627
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 OVERVIEW OF RATINGS CHANGES
COUNTRY DS 2016 (DS 2015 ) EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO
Albania 414
Bosnia and Herzegovina 450 (446)Croatia 368
Kosovo 507 (514)
Macedonia 429 (407)
Montenegro 393 (389)
Serbia 375 (368)
Bulgaria 325 (329)
Czech Republic 221
Estonia 193 (196)Hungary 329 (318)
Latvia 207
Lithuania 232 (236)
Poland 232 (221)
Romania 346
Slovakia 261 (264)
Slovenia 200 (193)
Armenia 536
Azerbaijan 686 (675)
Belarus 664 (671)
Georgia 461 (464)
Kazakhstan 661
Kyrgyzstan 589 (593)
Moldova 489 (486)
Russia 650 (646)
Tajikistan 654 (639)
Turkmenistan 693
Ukraine 468 (475)
Uzbekistan 693
B A L K A N S
C E N T R A L E U R O P E
E U R A S I A
Decline Improvemen Unchanged
The NIT ratings arebased on a scale of 983089 to983095 with 983089 representing
the highest level ofdemocratic progressand 983095 the lowestThe NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from983089 January through 983091983089December 983090983088983089983093
Categories EP ndash Electoral Process CS ndash Civil Society IM ndash Independent Media NDG ndash National Democratic Governance
LDG ndash Local Democratic Governance JFI ndash Judicial Framework and Independence CO ndash Corruption DS ndash Democracy Score
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
4
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 727
age ha Russia can no longer provide The cosmeic
ldquohawrdquo worked The EU has lifed sancions and he
IMF is in alks o prop up he economy
Muddling throughEven in a dark year here are small reasons or hope
Civil socieyndashdriven effors o uproo a corrup sysemin Ukraine showed inermiten progress in 983090983088983089983093 wih
he governmen enjoying relaive sabiliy and laying
he groundwork or insiuional reorms in he judi-
ciary he prosecuorrsquos office and anicorrupion bod-
ies So ar he EU and democraic donor governmens
have remained firm in making assisance condiional
on reorms and i is vial ha his approach coninue
les enrenched elies urn such aid ino ye anoher
embezzlemen scheme Ukraine is and should be he
op prioriy or reorm effors in he region and aid
mus no become a blank check or is leaders The
same is rue or Moldova where he EU and is allies
sill have a chance o build on popular ourage over
he 983090983088983089983092 hef o 983076983089 billion rom he counryrsquos banks
and orce he sae o finally ackle corrupion
In Georgia despie he poliicizaion o high-profile
cases he judiciary has improved a he day-o-day
level offering a posiive sign ha even in a polarized
sysem srucural reorm may sill have momenum
Parliamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983094 will be a major es
o he durabiliy o his rend Kyrgyzsan held on-
schedule elecions in Ocober ha improved mod-
esly on is previous round in 983090983088983089983088 Alhough here is
disurbing evidence o consolidaion o power around
Presiden Almazbek Aambayev he elecoral process
was open enough ha his pary could no secure a
majoriy in he parliamen Kosovo he wors perorm-
er in he Balkans or years made some progress on
insiuion building in 983090983088983089983093 alhough a serious crisis
beween he opposiion and governmen brough he
parliamen o a sandsill lae in he year hreaening
o cripple he governmenrsquos work in 983090983088983089983094
Rising to the challengeIn Europe and Eurasia no o menion he Unied
Saes he poliicians who sand ou oday are he oneswih he paricularis plaorms and he easy answersmdash
build a wall crush he erroriss proec he aherland
I is no enough o say ha hese populiss are doomed
o ail ha heir disregard or checks and balances or
heir dismissal o basic economics will evenually be
heir undoing The damage hey do can live on long
pas heir ime on he poliical sage
Europe mus choose beween creaing accoun-
able mechanisms wih enough power o address
undamenally supranaional issues or waching as
individual member saes ake apar he union piece
by piece On migraion he EUrsquos March 983090983088983089983094 deal wih
Turkey neiher solves he problem nor complies wih
inernaional law By graning accession progress o
Turkeyrsquos deeply auhoriarian governmen in exchangeor a crackdown on reugees he EU has undermined
is moral auhoriy and lef isel vulnerable o black-
mail A leas on his ron he Hungary modelmdasho
unilaeral border conrols dismissal o inernaional
law and sigmaizaion o ousidersmdashappears o be
winning
Paradoxically despie he EUrsquos ailures on migraion
here are signs ha i is gaining asseriveness on good
governmen elsewhere For candidae counries ac-
cession crieria have grown more sringen For mem-
bers he relaive success o he unionrsquos Cooperaion
and Verificaion Mechanism in encouraging Romania
o curb corrupion and he early invocaion o he
EUrsquos new rule-o-law mechanism regarding Poland
show ha here is hope or more accounabiliy wihin
he bloc
Afer an iniial hesiaion he Unied Saes has done
an admirable job o supporing ar-reaching reorms in
Ukraine which is sill he single mos imporan policy
or susaining democraizaion in he region The
decision o deploy more roops in Easern Europe and
he Balics is anoher posiive sign ha Washingon is
responding appropriaely o Moscowrsquos hreas
The Unied Saes is less well prepared for he moresuble challenge of prevening backsliding inside he EU
and in he Balkans The concep of a Europe ldquowhole and
freerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed o recognize
he inernal hreas o Europersquos uniy and libery namely
he reurn of naionalism and he dismanling of checks
and balances o allow sae capure A forward-looking
US policy will suppor Europe no only agains exernal
aggression bu also agains he dangers posed by grand
corrupion and illiberalism a home
The concep o a Europe ldquowhole and
reerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed
o recognize he inernal hreaso Europersquos uniy and libery
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
5
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827
In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished
hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion
and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-
pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-
ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem
solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he
Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland
and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-
rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-
ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades
VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu
he facual poin is ha all he
erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-
graed o he European Unionrdquo
Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-
oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o
score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-
lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o
European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral
European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-
phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir
posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary
poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences
MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being
organized by he Muslim Broh-
erhood using financial means
from a number of saeshellip The
Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-
rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a
growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo
The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries
share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa
o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088
or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in
Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia
and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-
cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir
populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-
Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe
ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism
or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz
pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in
opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical
discourse in boh counries
ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian
counry we canno olerae
an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088
Muslim immigrans who would
like o sar building mosques
all over our land and rying o change he naure
culure and values o he saerdquo
Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries
Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous
in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey
provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech
presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader
Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion
o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a
significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-
back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains
he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope
or he region
JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of
parasites and protozoa which hellip
while not dangerous in the or-
ganisms of these people could
be dangerous hererdquo
The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders
is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified
acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on
liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have
also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-
cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-
raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed
rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin
proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as
an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
6
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927
Hungary drives the decline
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Latvia
EstoniaSlovenia
Czech Republic
Poland
Lithuania
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Hungary
Romania
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10 Regime Type
Consolidated
Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated
Democracy (SCD)
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
7
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027
Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis
A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil
prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced
hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-
ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12 Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES
2013 2014 2015
Source World Bank
TurkmenistanUzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
GeorgiaAzerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
PERCENTAGE OF
REGIONAL GDP
74
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
8
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127
Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013
$20
$30
$110
$120
200
100
0
180
160
140
120
80
60
40
20
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar
SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL
UAH
GEL
AZN
KGS
TJS
KZT
BYR
RUB
MDL
Brent Oil Price
Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks
201520142013
ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan
REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR
Percent decline 2014-2015
Millions of USD
0
$1000
$2000
$3000
$4000
$5000
$6000
$7000
-70
-75
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
9
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227
Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year
The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when
he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced
an associaion agreemen wih he European Union
All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry
oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on
he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how
Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in
he official accession process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
JudicialFrameworkand Independence
Local Democratic
Governance
National
DemocraticGovernance
IndependentMedia
Civil Society
Electoral Process
Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates
How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union
While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o
EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-
ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial
candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen
media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic
governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-
pendence and naional democraic governance wih
he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen
insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas
remain under occupaion
Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-
ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he
judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy
Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen
expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could
sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos
office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-
onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he
counry is o reain US and European suppor
Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which
includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088
percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b
implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h
need or complex consiuional changes o undergird
i These amendmens were submited o he Con-
siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In
addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion
such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-
man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he
proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence
during he revoluion
The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching
Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he
poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-
mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or
economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona
Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he
nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-
ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing
corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress
coninues
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU
Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
10
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327
The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans
Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094
years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-
pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he
appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process
Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and
Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-
orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih
he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where
i was in 983090983088983088983092
The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance
beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans
and pressing or convergence wih European norms
Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu
in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he
hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes
as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he
Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o
naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy
has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an
-03
-02
-01
00
01
02
03
04
05
Average
Serbia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Kosovo
Croatia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Albania
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i
is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible
wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage
ha Dayon encourages
The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or
membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-
naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-
sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made
some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular
inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example
o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing
atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly
hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU
visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like
Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue
In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical
srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook
heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter
choice
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS
Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
11
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427
wwwfreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
13
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
12
The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic
development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy
Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the
2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration
from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime
types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-
consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
BELARUS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECH REP
SLOVAKIA
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
MACEDONIA
ALBANIAKOSOVO
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BOSNIA amp HERZ
HUNGARY
SLOVENIACROATIA
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016
SURVEY FINDINGS
Regime Type
Consolidated Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)
Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)
Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)
Total
7
6
6
3
7
29
No of countries
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 627
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 OVERVIEW OF RATINGS CHANGES
COUNTRY DS 2016 (DS 2015 ) EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO
Albania 414
Bosnia and Herzegovina 450 (446)Croatia 368
Kosovo 507 (514)
Macedonia 429 (407)
Montenegro 393 (389)
Serbia 375 (368)
Bulgaria 325 (329)
Czech Republic 221
Estonia 193 (196)Hungary 329 (318)
Latvia 207
Lithuania 232 (236)
Poland 232 (221)
Romania 346
Slovakia 261 (264)
Slovenia 200 (193)
Armenia 536
Azerbaijan 686 (675)
Belarus 664 (671)
Georgia 461 (464)
Kazakhstan 661
Kyrgyzstan 589 (593)
Moldova 489 (486)
Russia 650 (646)
Tajikistan 654 (639)
Turkmenistan 693
Ukraine 468 (475)
Uzbekistan 693
B A L K A N S
C E N T R A L E U R O P E
E U R A S I A
Decline Improvemen Unchanged
The NIT ratings arebased on a scale of 983089 to983095 with 983089 representing
the highest level ofdemocratic progressand 983095 the lowestThe NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from983089 January through 983091983089December 983090983088983089983093
Categories EP ndash Electoral Process CS ndash Civil Society IM ndash Independent Media NDG ndash National Democratic Governance
LDG ndash Local Democratic Governance JFI ndash Judicial Framework and Independence CO ndash Corruption DS ndash Democracy Score
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
4
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 727
age ha Russia can no longer provide The cosmeic
ldquohawrdquo worked The EU has lifed sancions and he
IMF is in alks o prop up he economy
Muddling throughEven in a dark year here are small reasons or hope
Civil socieyndashdriven effors o uproo a corrup sysemin Ukraine showed inermiten progress in 983090983088983089983093 wih
he governmen enjoying relaive sabiliy and laying
he groundwork or insiuional reorms in he judi-
ciary he prosecuorrsquos office and anicorrupion bod-
ies So ar he EU and democraic donor governmens
have remained firm in making assisance condiional
on reorms and i is vial ha his approach coninue
les enrenched elies urn such aid ino ye anoher
embezzlemen scheme Ukraine is and should be he
op prioriy or reorm effors in he region and aid
mus no become a blank check or is leaders The
same is rue or Moldova where he EU and is allies
sill have a chance o build on popular ourage over
he 983090983088983089983092 hef o 983076983089 billion rom he counryrsquos banks
and orce he sae o finally ackle corrupion
In Georgia despie he poliicizaion o high-profile
cases he judiciary has improved a he day-o-day
level offering a posiive sign ha even in a polarized
sysem srucural reorm may sill have momenum
Parliamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983094 will be a major es
o he durabiliy o his rend Kyrgyzsan held on-
schedule elecions in Ocober ha improved mod-
esly on is previous round in 983090983088983089983088 Alhough here is
disurbing evidence o consolidaion o power around
Presiden Almazbek Aambayev he elecoral process
was open enough ha his pary could no secure a
majoriy in he parliamen Kosovo he wors perorm-
er in he Balkans or years made some progress on
insiuion building in 983090983088983089983093 alhough a serious crisis
beween he opposiion and governmen brough he
parliamen o a sandsill lae in he year hreaening
o cripple he governmenrsquos work in 983090983088983089983094
Rising to the challengeIn Europe and Eurasia no o menion he Unied
Saes he poliicians who sand ou oday are he oneswih he paricularis plaorms and he easy answersmdash
build a wall crush he erroriss proec he aherland
I is no enough o say ha hese populiss are doomed
o ail ha heir disregard or checks and balances or
heir dismissal o basic economics will evenually be
heir undoing The damage hey do can live on long
pas heir ime on he poliical sage
Europe mus choose beween creaing accoun-
able mechanisms wih enough power o address
undamenally supranaional issues or waching as
individual member saes ake apar he union piece
by piece On migraion he EUrsquos March 983090983088983089983094 deal wih
Turkey neiher solves he problem nor complies wih
inernaional law By graning accession progress o
Turkeyrsquos deeply auhoriarian governmen in exchangeor a crackdown on reugees he EU has undermined
is moral auhoriy and lef isel vulnerable o black-
mail A leas on his ron he Hungary modelmdasho
unilaeral border conrols dismissal o inernaional
law and sigmaizaion o ousidersmdashappears o be
winning
Paradoxically despie he EUrsquos ailures on migraion
here are signs ha i is gaining asseriveness on good
governmen elsewhere For candidae counries ac-
cession crieria have grown more sringen For mem-
bers he relaive success o he unionrsquos Cooperaion
and Verificaion Mechanism in encouraging Romania
o curb corrupion and he early invocaion o he
EUrsquos new rule-o-law mechanism regarding Poland
show ha here is hope or more accounabiliy wihin
he bloc
Afer an iniial hesiaion he Unied Saes has done
an admirable job o supporing ar-reaching reorms in
Ukraine which is sill he single mos imporan policy
or susaining democraizaion in he region The
decision o deploy more roops in Easern Europe and
he Balics is anoher posiive sign ha Washingon is
responding appropriaely o Moscowrsquos hreas
The Unied Saes is less well prepared for he moresuble challenge of prevening backsliding inside he EU
and in he Balkans The concep of a Europe ldquowhole and
freerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed o recognize
he inernal hreas o Europersquos uniy and libery namely
he reurn of naionalism and he dismanling of checks
and balances o allow sae capure A forward-looking
US policy will suppor Europe no only agains exernal
aggression bu also agains he dangers posed by grand
corrupion and illiberalism a home
The concep o a Europe ldquowhole and
reerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed
o recognize he inernal hreaso Europersquos uniy and libery
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
5
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827
In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished
hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion
and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-
pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-
ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem
solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he
Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland
and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-
rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-
ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades
VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu
he facual poin is ha all he
erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-
graed o he European Unionrdquo
Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-
oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o
score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-
lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o
European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral
European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-
phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir
posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary
poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences
MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being
organized by he Muslim Broh-
erhood using financial means
from a number of saeshellip The
Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-
rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a
growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo
The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries
share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa
o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088
or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in
Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia
and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-
cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir
populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-
Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe
ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism
or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz
pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in
opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical
discourse in boh counries
ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian
counry we canno olerae
an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088
Muslim immigrans who would
like o sar building mosques
all over our land and rying o change he naure
culure and values o he saerdquo
Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries
Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous
in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey
provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech
presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader
Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion
o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a
significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-
back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains
he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope
or he region
JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of
parasites and protozoa which hellip
while not dangerous in the or-
ganisms of these people could
be dangerous hererdquo
The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders
is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified
acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on
liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have
also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-
cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-
raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed
rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin
proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as
an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
6
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927
Hungary drives the decline
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Latvia
EstoniaSlovenia
Czech Republic
Poland
Lithuania
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Hungary
Romania
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10 Regime Type
Consolidated
Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated
Democracy (SCD)
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
7
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027
Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis
A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil
prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced
hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-
ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12 Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES
2013 2014 2015
Source World Bank
TurkmenistanUzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
GeorgiaAzerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
PERCENTAGE OF
REGIONAL GDP
74
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
8
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127
Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013
$20
$30
$110
$120
200
100
0
180
160
140
120
80
60
40
20
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar
SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL
UAH
GEL
AZN
KGS
TJS
KZT
BYR
RUB
MDL
Brent Oil Price
Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks
201520142013
ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan
REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR
Percent decline 2014-2015
Millions of USD
0
$1000
$2000
$3000
$4000
$5000
$6000
$7000
-70
-75
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
9
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227
Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year
The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when
he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced
an associaion agreemen wih he European Union
All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry
oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on
he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how
Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in
he official accession process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
JudicialFrameworkand Independence
Local Democratic
Governance
National
DemocraticGovernance
IndependentMedia
Civil Society
Electoral Process
Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates
How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union
While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o
EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-
ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial
candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen
media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic
governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-
pendence and naional democraic governance wih
he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen
insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas
remain under occupaion
Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-
ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he
judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy
Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen
expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could
sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos
office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-
onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he
counry is o reain US and European suppor
Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which
includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088
percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b
implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h
need or complex consiuional changes o undergird
i These amendmens were submited o he Con-
siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In
addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion
such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-
man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he
proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence
during he revoluion
The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching
Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he
poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-
mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or
economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona
Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he
nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-
ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing
corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress
coninues
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU
Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
10
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327
The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans
Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094
years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-
pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he
appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process
Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and
Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-
orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih
he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where
i was in 983090983088983088983092
The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance
beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans
and pressing or convergence wih European norms
Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu
in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he
hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes
as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he
Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o
naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy
has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an
-03
-02
-01
00
01
02
03
04
05
Average
Serbia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Kosovo
Croatia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Albania
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i
is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible
wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage
ha Dayon encourages
The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or
membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-
naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-
sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made
some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular
inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example
o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing
atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly
hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU
visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like
Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue
In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical
srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook
heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter
choice
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS
Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
11
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427
wwwfreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
13
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
12
The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic
development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy
Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the
2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration
from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime
types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-
consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
BELARUS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECH REP
SLOVAKIA
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
MACEDONIA
ALBANIAKOSOVO
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BOSNIA amp HERZ
HUNGARY
SLOVENIACROATIA
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016
SURVEY FINDINGS
Regime Type
Consolidated Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)
Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)
Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)
Total
7
6
6
3
7
29
No of countries
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 727
age ha Russia can no longer provide The cosmeic
ldquohawrdquo worked The EU has lifed sancions and he
IMF is in alks o prop up he economy
Muddling throughEven in a dark year here are small reasons or hope
Civil socieyndashdriven effors o uproo a corrup sysemin Ukraine showed inermiten progress in 983090983088983089983093 wih
he governmen enjoying relaive sabiliy and laying
he groundwork or insiuional reorms in he judi-
ciary he prosecuorrsquos office and anicorrupion bod-
ies So ar he EU and democraic donor governmens
have remained firm in making assisance condiional
on reorms and i is vial ha his approach coninue
les enrenched elies urn such aid ino ye anoher
embezzlemen scheme Ukraine is and should be he
op prioriy or reorm effors in he region and aid
mus no become a blank check or is leaders The
same is rue or Moldova where he EU and is allies
sill have a chance o build on popular ourage over
he 983090983088983089983092 hef o 983076983089 billion rom he counryrsquos banks
and orce he sae o finally ackle corrupion
In Georgia despie he poliicizaion o high-profile
cases he judiciary has improved a he day-o-day
level offering a posiive sign ha even in a polarized
sysem srucural reorm may sill have momenum
Parliamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983094 will be a major es
o he durabiliy o his rend Kyrgyzsan held on-
schedule elecions in Ocober ha improved mod-
esly on is previous round in 983090983088983089983088 Alhough here is
disurbing evidence o consolidaion o power around
Presiden Almazbek Aambayev he elecoral process
was open enough ha his pary could no secure a
majoriy in he parliamen Kosovo he wors perorm-
er in he Balkans or years made some progress on
insiuion building in 983090983088983089983093 alhough a serious crisis
beween he opposiion and governmen brough he
parliamen o a sandsill lae in he year hreaening
o cripple he governmenrsquos work in 983090983088983089983094
Rising to the challengeIn Europe and Eurasia no o menion he Unied
Saes he poliicians who sand ou oday are he oneswih he paricularis plaorms and he easy answersmdash
build a wall crush he erroriss proec he aherland
I is no enough o say ha hese populiss are doomed
o ail ha heir disregard or checks and balances or
heir dismissal o basic economics will evenually be
heir undoing The damage hey do can live on long
pas heir ime on he poliical sage
Europe mus choose beween creaing accoun-
able mechanisms wih enough power o address
undamenally supranaional issues or waching as
individual member saes ake apar he union piece
by piece On migraion he EUrsquos March 983090983088983089983094 deal wih
Turkey neiher solves he problem nor complies wih
inernaional law By graning accession progress o
Turkeyrsquos deeply auhoriarian governmen in exchangeor a crackdown on reugees he EU has undermined
is moral auhoriy and lef isel vulnerable o black-
mail A leas on his ron he Hungary modelmdasho
unilaeral border conrols dismissal o inernaional
law and sigmaizaion o ousidersmdashappears o be
winning
Paradoxically despie he EUrsquos ailures on migraion
here are signs ha i is gaining asseriveness on good
governmen elsewhere For candidae counries ac-
cession crieria have grown more sringen For mem-
bers he relaive success o he unionrsquos Cooperaion
and Verificaion Mechanism in encouraging Romania
o curb corrupion and he early invocaion o he
EUrsquos new rule-o-law mechanism regarding Poland
show ha here is hope or more accounabiliy wihin
he bloc
Afer an iniial hesiaion he Unied Saes has done
an admirable job o supporing ar-reaching reorms in
Ukraine which is sill he single mos imporan policy
or susaining democraizaion in he region The
decision o deploy more roops in Easern Europe and
he Balics is anoher posiive sign ha Washingon is
responding appropriaely o Moscowrsquos hreas
The Unied Saes is less well prepared for he moresuble challenge of prevening backsliding inside he EU
and in he Balkans The concep of a Europe ldquowhole and
freerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed o recognize
he inernal hreas o Europersquos uniy and libery namely
he reurn of naionalism and he dismanling of checks
and balances o allow sae capure A forward-looking
US policy will suppor Europe no only agains exernal
aggression bu also agains he dangers posed by grand
corrupion and illiberalism a home
The concep o a Europe ldquowhole and
reerdquo is sill valid bu i mus be updaed
o recognize he inernal hreaso Europersquos uniy and libery
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
5
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827
In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished
hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion
and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-
pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-
ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem
solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he
Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland
and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-
rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-
ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades
VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu
he facual poin is ha all he
erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-
graed o he European Unionrdquo
Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-
oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o
score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-
lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o
European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral
European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-
phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir
posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary
poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences
MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being
organized by he Muslim Broh-
erhood using financial means
from a number of saeshellip The
Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-
rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a
growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo
The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries
share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa
o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088
or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in
Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia
and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-
cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir
populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-
Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe
ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism
or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz
pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in
opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical
discourse in boh counries
ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian
counry we canno olerae
an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088
Muslim immigrans who would
like o sar building mosques
all over our land and rying o change he naure
culure and values o he saerdquo
Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries
Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous
in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey
provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech
presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader
Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion
o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a
significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-
back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains
he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope
or he region
JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of
parasites and protozoa which hellip
while not dangerous in the or-
ganisms of these people could
be dangerous hererdquo
The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders
is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified
acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on
liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have
also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-
cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-
raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed
rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin
proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as
an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
6
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927
Hungary drives the decline
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Latvia
EstoniaSlovenia
Czech Republic
Poland
Lithuania
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Hungary
Romania
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10 Regime Type
Consolidated
Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated
Democracy (SCD)
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
7
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027
Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis
A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil
prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced
hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-
ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12 Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES
2013 2014 2015
Source World Bank
TurkmenistanUzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
GeorgiaAzerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
PERCENTAGE OF
REGIONAL GDP
74
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
8
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127
Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013
$20
$30
$110
$120
200
100
0
180
160
140
120
80
60
40
20
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar
SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL
UAH
GEL
AZN
KGS
TJS
KZT
BYR
RUB
MDL
Brent Oil Price
Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks
201520142013
ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan
REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR
Percent decline 2014-2015
Millions of USD
0
$1000
$2000
$3000
$4000
$5000
$6000
$7000
-70
-75
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
9
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227
Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year
The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when
he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced
an associaion agreemen wih he European Union
All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry
oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on
he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how
Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in
he official accession process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
JudicialFrameworkand Independence
Local Democratic
Governance
National
DemocraticGovernance
IndependentMedia
Civil Society
Electoral Process
Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates
How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union
While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o
EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-
ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial
candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen
media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic
governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-
pendence and naional democraic governance wih
he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen
insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas
remain under occupaion
Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-
ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he
judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy
Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen
expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could
sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos
office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-
onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he
counry is o reain US and European suppor
Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which
includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088
percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b
implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h
need or complex consiuional changes o undergird
i These amendmens were submited o he Con-
siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In
addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion
such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-
man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he
proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence
during he revoluion
The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching
Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he
poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-
mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or
economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona
Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he
nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-
ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing
corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress
coninues
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU
Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
10
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327
The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans
Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094
years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-
pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he
appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process
Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and
Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-
orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih
he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where
i was in 983090983088983088983092
The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance
beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans
and pressing or convergence wih European norms
Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu
in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he
hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes
as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he
Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o
naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy
has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an
-03
-02
-01
00
01
02
03
04
05
Average
Serbia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Kosovo
Croatia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Albania
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i
is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible
wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage
ha Dayon encourages
The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or
membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-
naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-
sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made
some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular
inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example
o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing
atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly
hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU
visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like
Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue
In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical
srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook
heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter
choice
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS
Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
11
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427
wwwfreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
13
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
12
The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic
development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy
Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the
2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration
from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime
types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-
consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
BELARUS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECH REP
SLOVAKIA
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
MACEDONIA
ALBANIAKOSOVO
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BOSNIA amp HERZ
HUNGARY
SLOVENIACROATIA
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016
SURVEY FINDINGS
Regime Type
Consolidated Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)
Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)
Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)
Total
7
6
6
3
7
29
No of countries
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
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NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 827
In 983089983097983097983089 Cenral European leaders disinguished
hemselves wih heir commimen o cooperaion
and democraic pracices afer earing down an op-
pressive sysem In 983090983088983089983093 hey sood ou by consruc-
ing walls and obsrucing supranaional problem
solving Tweny-five years afer he ounding o he
Visegraacuted Group he Czech Republic Hungary Poland
and Slovakia have become he building blocks o a Eu-
rope ha is more naionalisic and more inward look-
ing han a any oher ime in he pas wo decades
VIKTOR ORBAacuteNPrime Minister of HungaryldquoOf course irsquos no acceped bu
he facual poin is ha all he
erroriss are basically migranshellipThe quesion is when hey mi-
graed o he European Unionrdquo
Small pockes o illiberalism have long been devel-
oping in he region as shown by he pas decade o
score declines in Nations in Transit bu he new chal-
lenge o he reugee crisis exposed he rue ragiliy o
European inegraion As he crisis escalaed Cenral
European poliicians led he way in embracing xeno-
phobic rheoric o marshal public suppor or heir
posiions and ore down he barriers o ldquounnecessary
poliical correcnessrdquo even as hey ereced real ences
MILOŠ ZEMANPresident of theCzech RepublicldquoI believe his invasion is being
organized by he Muslim Broh-
erhood using financial means
from a number of saeshellip The
Muslim Broherhood canno sar a war agains Eu-
rope i doesnrsquo have he power bu i can prepare a
growing migran wave and gradually conrol Europerdquo
The European Unionrsquos demand ha member counries
share he burden by acceping a proporional quoa
o reugeesmdashrom 983096983088983091 or Slovakia o abou 983095983088983088983088
or Polandmdashwas me wih significan resisance in
Cenral Europe including lawsuis filed by Slovakia
and Hungary a he European Cour o Jusice Polii-
cal leaders also exploied he crisis o srenghen heir
populis appeal disregarding undamenal humaniar-
Turning to Xenophobia in Central Europe
ian principles and he ideals o democraic pluralism
or shor-erm parisan gain Hungaryrsquos ruling Fidesz
pary and Slovakiarsquos Smer experienced an upsurge in
opinion surveys and he crisis dominaed poliical
discourse in boh counries
ROBERT FICOPrime Minister of SlovakialdquoSince Slovakia is a Chrisian
counry we canno olerae
an influx o 983091983088983088983088983088983088ndash983092983088983088983088983088983088
Muslim immigrans who would
like o sar building mosques
all over our land and rying o change he naure
culure and values o he saerdquo
Poliical orces in he oher wo Visegraacuted counries
Poland and he Czech Republic were less unanimous
in obsrucing collecive acion by he EU bu hey
provided heir air share o hosile rheoric Czech
presiden Miloš Zeman and Polish ruling pary leader
Jarosław Kaczyński ound suppor or heir vilificaion
o migrans no jus among exremis groups bu in a
significan percenage o he populaion Sill push-
back rom civil sociey and individual ciizens agains
he urn o illiberal discourse did offer a sliver o hope
or he region
JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKILeader of Polandrsquos Lawand Justice partyMigrants carry ldquoall sorts of
parasites and protozoa which hellip
while not dangerous in the or-
ganisms of these people could
be dangerous hererdquo
The democraic malaise illusraed by hese leaders
is no limied o Cenral Europe The EU as a whole isacing quesions abou is ideniy boh as a unified
acor on crucial policy maters and as a projec buil on
liberal values Many Wesern European poliicians have
also urned o haeul rheoric and many more advo-
cae naionalis soluions Bu he ac ha he Viseg-
raacuted Group 983090983093 years afer is ounding has ransormed
rom an exemplar o uniy and democracy ino a leadin
proponen o selfishness and bigory should serve as
an urgen warning abou where Europe is headed
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
6
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Hungary drives the decline
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Latvia
EstoniaSlovenia
Czech Republic
Poland
Lithuania
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Hungary
Romania
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10 Regime Type
Consolidated
Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated
Democracy (SCD)
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
7
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
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Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis
A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil
prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced
hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-
ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12 Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES
2013 2014 2015
Source World Bank
TurkmenistanUzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
GeorgiaAzerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
PERCENTAGE OF
REGIONAL GDP
74
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
8
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127
Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013
$20
$30
$110
$120
200
100
0
180
160
140
120
80
60
40
20
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar
SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL
UAH
GEL
AZN
KGS
TJS
KZT
BYR
RUB
MDL
Brent Oil Price
Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks
201520142013
ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan
REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR
Percent decline 2014-2015
Millions of USD
0
$1000
$2000
$3000
$4000
$5000
$6000
$7000
-70
-75
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
9
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227
Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year
The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when
he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced
an associaion agreemen wih he European Union
All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry
oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on
he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how
Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in
he official accession process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
JudicialFrameworkand Independence
Local Democratic
Governance
National
DemocraticGovernance
IndependentMedia
Civil Society
Electoral Process
Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates
How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union
While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o
EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-
ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial
candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen
media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic
governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-
pendence and naional democraic governance wih
he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen
insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas
remain under occupaion
Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-
ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he
judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy
Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen
expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could
sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos
office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-
onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he
counry is o reain US and European suppor
Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which
includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088
percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b
implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h
need or complex consiuional changes o undergird
i These amendmens were submited o he Con-
siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In
addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion
such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-
man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he
proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence
during he revoluion
The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching
Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he
poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-
mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or
economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona
Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he
nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-
ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing
corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress
coninues
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU
Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
10
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327
The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans
Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094
years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-
pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he
appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process
Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and
Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-
orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih
he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where
i was in 983090983088983088983092
The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance
beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans
and pressing or convergence wih European norms
Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu
in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he
hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes
as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he
Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o
naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy
has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an
-03
-02
-01
00
01
02
03
04
05
Average
Serbia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Kosovo
Croatia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Albania
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i
is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible
wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage
ha Dayon encourages
The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or
membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-
naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-
sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made
some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular
inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example
o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing
atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly
hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU
visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like
Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue
In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical
srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook
heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter
choice
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS
Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
11
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427
wwwfreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
13
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
12
The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic
development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy
Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the
2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration
from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime
types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-
consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
BELARUS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECH REP
SLOVAKIA
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
MACEDONIA
ALBANIAKOSOVO
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BOSNIA amp HERZ
HUNGARY
SLOVENIACROATIA
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016
SURVEY FINDINGS
Regime Type
Consolidated Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)
Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)
Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)
Total
7
6
6
3
7
29
No of countries
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 927
Hungary drives the decline
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 CENTRAL EUROPE CHANGES IN DEMOCRACY SCORE
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Latvia
EstoniaSlovenia
Czech Republic
Poland
Lithuania
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Hungary
Romania
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10 Regime Type
Consolidated
Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated
Democracy (SCD)
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
7
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
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Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis
A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil
prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced
hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-
ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12 Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES
2013 2014 2015
Source World Bank
TurkmenistanUzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
GeorgiaAzerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
PERCENTAGE OF
REGIONAL GDP
74
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
8
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127
Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013
$20
$30
$110
$120
200
100
0
180
160
140
120
80
60
40
20
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar
SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL
UAH
GEL
AZN
KGS
TJS
KZT
BYR
RUB
MDL
Brent Oil Price
Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks
201520142013
ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan
REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR
Percent decline 2014-2015
Millions of USD
0
$1000
$2000
$3000
$4000
$5000
$6000
$7000
-70
-75
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
9
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227
Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year
The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when
he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced
an associaion agreemen wih he European Union
All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry
oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on
he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how
Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in
he official accession process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
JudicialFrameworkand Independence
Local Democratic
Governance
National
DemocraticGovernance
IndependentMedia
Civil Society
Electoral Process
Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates
How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union
While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o
EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-
ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial
candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen
media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic
governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-
pendence and naional democraic governance wih
he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen
insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas
remain under occupaion
Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-
ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he
judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy
Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen
expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could
sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos
office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-
onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he
counry is o reain US and European suppor
Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which
includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088
percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b
implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h
need or complex consiuional changes o undergird
i These amendmens were submited o he Con-
siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In
addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion
such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-
man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he
proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence
during he revoluion
The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching
Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he
poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-
mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or
economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona
Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he
nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-
ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing
corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress
coninues
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU
Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
10
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327
The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans
Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094
years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-
pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he
appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process
Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and
Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-
orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih
he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where
i was in 983090983088983088983092
The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance
beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans
and pressing or convergence wih European norms
Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu
in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he
hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes
as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he
Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o
naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy
has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an
-03
-02
-01
00
01
02
03
04
05
Average
Serbia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Kosovo
Croatia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Albania
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i
is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible
wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage
ha Dayon encourages
The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or
membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-
naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-
sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made
some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular
inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example
o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing
atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly
hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU
visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like
Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue
In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical
srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook
heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter
choice
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS
Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
11
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427
wwwfreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
13
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
12
The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic
development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy
Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the
2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration
from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime
types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-
consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
BELARUS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECH REP
SLOVAKIA
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
MACEDONIA
ALBANIAKOSOVO
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BOSNIA amp HERZ
HUNGARY
SLOVENIACROATIA
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016
SURVEY FINDINGS
Regime Type
Consolidated Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)
Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)
Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)
Total
7
6
6
3
7
29
No of countries
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1027
Eurasiarsquos Economic Crisis
A combinaion o US and European sancions on Russia Russian counersancions and a collapse in world oil
prices has driven Eurasiarsquos economies o he brink In 983090983088983089983093 he regionrsquos oil-exporing saes increasingly aced
hard decisions abou currencies and budges Oher Eurasian economies ha rely on Russian subsidies or remi-
ances rom migran laborers in Russia were caugh in he downward spiral
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12 Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
GDP GROWTH IN SELECT EURASIAN COUNTRIES
2013 2014 2015
Source World Bank
TurkmenistanUzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Armenia
GeorgiaAzerbaijan
Moldova
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
PERCENTAGE OF
REGIONAL GDP
74
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
8
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127
Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013
$20
$30
$110
$120
200
100
0
180
160
140
120
80
60
40
20
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar
SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL
UAH
GEL
AZN
KGS
TJS
KZT
BYR
RUB
MDL
Brent Oil Price
Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks
201520142013
ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan
REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR
Percent decline 2014-2015
Millions of USD
0
$1000
$2000
$3000
$4000
$5000
$6000
$7000
-70
-75
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
9
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227
Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year
The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when
he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced
an associaion agreemen wih he European Union
All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry
oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on
he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how
Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in
he official accession process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
JudicialFrameworkand Independence
Local Democratic
Governance
National
DemocraticGovernance
IndependentMedia
Civil Society
Electoral Process
Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates
How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union
While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o
EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-
ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial
candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen
media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic
governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-
pendence and naional democraic governance wih
he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen
insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas
remain under occupaion
Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-
ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he
judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy
Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen
expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could
sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos
office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-
onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he
counry is o reain US and European suppor
Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which
includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088
percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b
implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h
need or complex consiuional changes o undergird
i These amendmens were submited o he Con-
siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In
addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion
such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-
man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he
proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence
during he revoluion
The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching
Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he
poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-
mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or
economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona
Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he
nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-
ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing
corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress
coninues
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU
Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
10
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327
The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans
Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094
years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-
pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he
appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process
Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and
Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-
orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih
he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where
i was in 983090983088983088983092
The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance
beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans
and pressing or convergence wih European norms
Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu
in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he
hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes
as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he
Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o
naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy
has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an
-03
-02
-01
00
01
02
03
04
05
Average
Serbia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Kosovo
Croatia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Albania
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i
is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible
wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage
ha Dayon encourages
The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or
membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-
naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-
sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made
some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular
inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example
o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing
atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly
hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU
visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like
Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue
In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical
srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook
heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter
choice
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS
Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
11
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427
wwwfreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
13
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
12
The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic
development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy
Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the
2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration
from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime
types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-
consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
BELARUS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECH REP
SLOVAKIA
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
MACEDONIA
ALBANIAKOSOVO
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BOSNIA amp HERZ
HUNGARY
SLOVENIACROATIA
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016
SURVEY FINDINGS
Regime Type
Consolidated Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)
Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)
Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)
Total
7
6
6
3
7
29
No of countries
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1127
Q4 2015Q3 2015Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2014Q3 2014Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 2013
$20
$30
$110
$120
200
100
0
180
160
140
120
80
60
40
20
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
Brent oil price Increase in value of US dollar
SELECT EURASIAN CURRENCIES AND BRENT PRICE OF OIL
UAH
GEL
AZN
KGS
TJS
KZT
BYR
RUB
MDL
Brent Oil Price
Sources Energy Information Administration regional national banks
201520142013
ArmeniaKyrgyzstanMoldovaTajikistanUzbekistan
REMITTANCES VIA MONEY OPERATORS FROM RUSSIA YEAR ON YEAR
Percent decline 2014-2015
Millions of USD
0
$1000
$2000
$3000
$4000
$5000
$6000
$7000
-70
-75
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
9
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227
Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year
The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when
he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced
an associaion agreemen wih he European Union
All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry
oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on
he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how
Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in
he official accession process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
JudicialFrameworkand Independence
Local Democratic
Governance
National
DemocraticGovernance
IndependentMedia
Civil Society
Electoral Process
Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates
How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union
While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o
EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-
ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial
candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen
media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic
governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-
pendence and naional democraic governance wih
he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen
insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas
remain under occupaion
Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-
ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he
judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy
Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen
expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could
sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos
office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-
onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he
counry is o reain US and European suppor
Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which
includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088
percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b
implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h
need or complex consiuional changes o undergird
i These amendmens were submited o he Con-
siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In
addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion
such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-
man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he
proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence
during he revoluion
The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching
Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he
poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-
mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or
economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona
Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he
nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-
ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing
corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress
coninues
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU
Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
10
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327
The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans
Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094
years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-
pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he
appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process
Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and
Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-
orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih
he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where
i was in 983090983088983088983092
The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance
beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans
and pressing or convergence wih European norms
Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu
in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he
hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes
as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he
Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o
naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy
has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an
-03
-02
-01
00
01
02
03
04
05
Average
Serbia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Kosovo
Croatia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Albania
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i
is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible
wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage
ha Dayon encourages
The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or
membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-
naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-
sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made
some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular
inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example
o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing
atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly
hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU
visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like
Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue
In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical
srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook
heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter
choice
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS
Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
11
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427
wwwfreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
13
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
12
The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic
development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy
Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the
2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration
from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime
types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-
consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
BELARUS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECH REP
SLOVAKIA
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
MACEDONIA
ALBANIAKOSOVO
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BOSNIA amp HERZ
HUNGARY
SLOVENIACROATIA
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016
SURVEY FINDINGS
Regime Type
Consolidated Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)
Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)
Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)
Total
7
6
6
3
7
29
No of countries
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1227
Ukrainersquos Pivotal Year
The 983090983088983089983091ndash983089983092 ldquoEuromaidan Revoluionrdquo began when
he presiden a he ime Vikor Yanukovych rejeced
an associaion agreemen wih he European Union
All o he subsequen reorms under he new adminis-raion have been predicaed on seering he counry
oward Europe Alhough EU membership is no on
he able a his poin i is worhwhile o examine how
Ukraine compares wih counries ha are already in
he official accession process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Corruption
JudicialFrameworkand Independence
Local Democratic
Governance
National
DemocraticGovernance
IndependentMedia
Civil Society
Electoral Process
Ukraine EU members EU official and potential candidates
How Ukraine compares with average country scores in the European Union
While Ukraine alls ar shor o he perormance o
EU members covered by Nations in Transit i acu-
ally ouperorms he average o official and poenial
candidaes in NIT on hree ou o seven indicaorsmdashcivil sociey elecoral process and independen
media Ukraine scores worse on local democraic
governance corrupion judicial ramework and inde-
pendence and naional democraic governance wih
he las o hose indicaors affeced by governmen
insabiliy and he ac ha Crimea and he Donbas
remain under occupaion
Corruption and impunityUkrainersquos mos urgen asks or 983090983088983089983094 are address-
ing corrupion and adoping relaed reorms o he
judiciary and prosecuorrsquos office The poliical crisiso early 983090983088983089983094 which has lef Prime Miniser Arseniy
Yasenyuk essenially a lame duck afer parliamen
expressed rusraion wih he pace o reorms could
sill resul in more rapid progress Bu he presidenrsquos
office and he nex prime miniser will have o dem-
onsrae he poliical will o rejec old pracices i he
counry is o reain US and European suppor
Blueprins or reorm o he prosecuorrsquos office which
includes reducing he number o prosecuors by 983092983088
percen have been signed ino law bu sill need o b
implemened Judicial reorm has been delayed by h
need or complex consiuional changes o undergird
i These amendmens were submited o he Con-
siuional Cour a he end o 983090983088983089983093 or approval In
addiion o heir imporance or fighing corrupion
such reorms are essenial or he observance o hu-
man righs in he judicial and penal sysems and he
proper prosecuion o hose responsible or violence
during he revoluion
The reorms required are subsanial and ar-reaching
Bu given ime and suppor Ukraine cerainly has he
poenial o equal or surpass he democraic peror-
mance o official EU candidae counries in he nearuure Consisen inernaional condiionaliy or
economic and oher aidmdashas seen in he Inernaiona
Moneary Fundrsquos reusal in early 983090983088983089983094 o provide he
nex ranche o financial assisance unil he gov-
ernmen proves ha i is serious abou uprooing
corrupionmdashis he only way o ensure ha progress
coninues
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 UKRAINE AND THE EU
Each spoke of the spider graph represents one category of NIT rated from 983089 to 983095 with 983089representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094 ratingsreflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
10
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327
The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans
Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094
years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-
pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he
appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process
Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and
Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-
orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih
he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where
i was in 983090983088983088983092
The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance
beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans
and pressing or convergence wih European norms
Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu
in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he
hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes
as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he
Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o
naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy
has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an
-03
-02
-01
00
01
02
03
04
05
Average
Serbia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Kosovo
Croatia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Albania
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i
is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible
wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage
ha Dayon encourages
The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or
membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-
naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-
sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made
some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular
inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example
o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing
atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly
hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU
visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like
Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue
In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical
srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook
heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter
choice
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS
Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
11
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427
wwwfreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
13
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
12
The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic
development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy
Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the
2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration
from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime
types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-
consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
BELARUS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECH REP
SLOVAKIA
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
MACEDONIA
ALBANIAKOSOVO
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BOSNIA amp HERZ
HUNGARY
SLOVENIACROATIA
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016
SURVEY FINDINGS
Regime Type
Consolidated Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)
Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)
Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)
Total
7
6
6
3
7
29
No of countries
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1327
The EUrsquos Dilemma in the Balkans
Tweny years afer he Dayon Peace Accords and 983089983094
years afer he NATO inervenion in Kosovo he Euro-
pean Unionrsquos policies in he Wesern Balkans have he
appearance o success There is no war Serbia andMonenegro have begun he EU accession process
Albania and Macedonia are official candidaes and
Bosnia and Kosovo are poenial candidaes Bu re-
orm in he region has slowed and now rereaed wih
he regionrsquos average Democracy Score back o where
i was in 983090983088983088983092
The EUrsquos core dilemma is how o srike a balance
beween ensuring shor-erm sabiliy in he Balkans
and pressing or convergence wih European norms
Dayon brough an end o he war in Bosnia bu pu
in place an excruciaingly complex poliical sysemha has crippled he Bosnian sae and led o he
hardening o ehnic divisions The counry operaes
as a se o ehnic fiedoms and one o is eniies he
Republika Srpska squarely rejecs he legiimacy o
naional insiuions The EUrsquos enlargemen sraegy
has pu off dealing wih hese issues in avor o an
-03
-02
-01
00
01
02
03
04
05
Average
Serbia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Kosovo
Croatia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Albania
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
approach ocused on socioeconomic reorms bu i
is quesionable wheher progress on hese is possible
wihou unangling he sysem o poliical paronage
ha Dayon encourages
The EU recognizes Kosovo as a poenial candidae or
membership bu i coninues o avoid a final deermi-
naion abou he counryrsquos saehood While he ldquoBrus-
sels dialoguerdquo beween Kosovo and Serbia has made
some progress he resuls are increasingly unpopular
inside Kosovo especially given he negaive example
o Bosnia afer Dayon The issue is now disracing
atenion rom much-needed reorms paricularly
hose relaed o fighing corrupion The salling o EU
visa liberalizaion or Kosovo even as counries like
Ukraine wih equally deep governance problems moveahead has urher soured ciizens on he dialogue
In Macedonia Monenegro and Serbia poliical
srongmen have been pressing he EU o overlook
heir bad behavior by arguing ha here is no beter
choice
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 983090983088983089983094 BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN THE BALKANS
Chart shows Democracy Scores for all Balkan countries normalized so that 983090983088983088983092 scores equal zero
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
11
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427
wwwfreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
13
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
12
The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic
development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy
Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the
2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration
from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime
types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-
consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
BELARUS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECH REP
SLOVAKIA
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
MACEDONIA
ALBANIAKOSOVO
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BOSNIA amp HERZ
HUNGARY
SLOVENIACROATIA
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016
SURVEY FINDINGS
Regime Type
Consolidated Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)
Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)
Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)
Total
7
6
6
3
7
29
No of countries
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1427
wwwfreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
13
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
12
The map reflects the findings of Freedom Housersquos Nations in Transit 2016 survey which assesses the status of democratic
development in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia during 2015 Freedom House i ntroduced a Democracy
Scoremdashan average of each countryrsquos ratings on all of the indicators covered by Nations in Transitmdashbeginning with the
2004 edition The Democracy Score is designe d to simplify analysis of the countriesrsquo overall progress or deterioration
from year to year Based on the Democracy Score and its scale of 1 to 7 Freedom House has defined the following regime
types consolidated democracy (1ndash2) semi-consolidated democracy (3) transitional governmenthybrid regime (4) semi-
consolidated authoritarian regime (5) and consolidated authoritarian regime (6ndash7)
RUSSIA
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
BELARUS
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
CZECH REP
SLOVAKIA
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
MACEDONIA
ALBANIAKOSOVO
MONTENEGRO
SERBIA
BOSNIA amp HERZ
HUNGARY
SLOVENIACROATIA
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016
SURVEY FINDINGS
Regime Type
Consolidated Democracy (CD)
Semi-Consolidated Democracy (SCD)
Transitional Government or Hybrid Regime (TH)
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (SCA)
Consolidated Authoritarian Regime (CA)
Total
7
6
6
3
7
29
No of countries
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1527
The EU expended huge amouns o poliical capial
in 983090983088983089983093 o bring he Macedonian governmen o he
able wih he opposiion and o broker early elec-
ions Afer conceding o an agreemen in he summer
o 983090983088983089983093 he ruling pary salled invesigaions and
reorms ha were needed o make he early elecionsree and air EU leverage is weakened by he ongoing
name dispue wih Greece which prevens he open-
ing o accession alks
In relaions wih Serbia mainaining he ldquoBrussels
dialoguerdquo wih Kosovo rumped oher consideraions
hroughou 983090983088983089983093 Righ-wing prime miniser Alek-
sandar Vučić was able o argue ha only he can keep
more radical naionaliss in check so he EU was loah
o challenge him when he denounced is suppor
or independen media Cooperaion on managing
reugee and migran flows has given Vučić addiional
negoiaing power wih he EU
Monenegrin prime miniser Milo ETHukanović who has
effecively ruled since 983089983097983097983089 brough he counry ino
NATO and coninues o open new chapers or ac-
cession o he EU even as he governmen makes no
progress on genuine independence or anicorrupion
bodies or ransparency in public procuremen Oppo-siion orces wih a mixure o righ-wing and good-
governmen agendas ried o challenge ETHukanović
hrough proess in he second hal o he year bu
hey were unsuccessul
Durable peace in he Balkans is no small achievemen
Bu peace wihou progress has led o a fesering and po
enially dangerous sagnaion Crippling unemploymen
raes especially for youh sill push ens of housands of
migrans each monh o seek work in he EU A susain-
able soluion will require he bloc o prioriize media inde
pendence rule of law and good governance wihin hes
counries over any shor-erm geopoliical objecive
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Youth Unemployment
Unemployment
MacedoniaMontenegroAlbaniaKosovoSerbiaBosnia
58
50
61
29
40
51
TOTAL amp YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN T HE WESTERN BALKANS 983090983088983089983092
Source World Ban
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
14
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1627
MIGRATION FROM AND THROUGH THE BALKANS DOUBLE STRAINThe movemen o Middle Easern and Arican reugees and migrans ino Europe was he coninenrsquos bigges news sory in 983090983088983089983093 I
is easy o orge however ha a he beginning o he year i was ouward migraion rom he Balkans especially rom Kosovo ha
made he headlines In he firs hree monhs o 983090983088983089983093 alone more han 983093983088983088983088983088 Kosovars sough asylum in he European Union
As he number o Balkans applicans apered off during he
spring he number o Middle Easern reugees rose By May
asylum applicaions rom Syrians alone equaled hose rom all
o he Wesern Balkans In oal more han 983095983093983088983088983088 people filed
or asylum ha monh wih one-hird o hem coming rom
Syria Iraq and Aghanisan These numbers more han doubled
by he summer when Germany announced ha i would no
depor Syrian reugees arriving on is erriory
In early Sepember he European Commission proposed adding
all Balkan counries and Turkey o is lis o ldquosae counries o
originrdquo meaning asylum applicans rom hose saes could be
reurned auomaically In he nex ew monhs he flow rom
he Balkans shrunk o a rickle
By yearrsquos end Hungarian prime miniser Vikor Orbaacutenrsquos sraegy
o imposing sric naional border conrols hough iniially
derided had become he norm across he EU as he union
ailed o develop a shared policy or managing he movemen
and setlemen o reugees In December Ausria and Slovenia
announced he srenghening o border conrols and sared
building heir own ences While he flow slowed somewha dur-
ing he winer monhs he EU is acing he ull consequences o
is ailure o ac in coordinaion his spring
Passing he responsibiliy or managing reugees and proecing
EU borders on o he Wesern Balkans is neiher air nor wihou
is own dangers The massive ouflow o migrans rom Balkan
counries in he firs hal o 983090983088983089983093 should sand as a warning
abou he economic and poliical ragiliy o his region which is
increasingly rapped beween Greece and he res o he EU
Montenegro
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Macedonia
Serbia
Albania
Kosovo
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JULY
JUNE
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
2015 JAN
Other
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Balkans
NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONS TO EUROPEANCOUNTRIES SUBMITTED BY BALKANS RESIDENTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF ASYLUM APPLICATIONSTO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Source EurostatSource Eurostat
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
15
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1727
served as depuy mayor o Asana he capial beore
sepping down in March 983090983088983089983094 Her oher son Aisulan
Nazarbayev works in Kazakhsanrsquos Deense Minisry
Kanye Wes perormed a Aisulanrsquos wedding in 983090983088983089983091
Nazarbayevrsquos second daugher Dinara is married o
Timur Kulibayev previously he chairman o he sae
holding company Samruk-Kazyna Through he con-
glomerae Almex hey conrol a majoriy sake in he
counryrsquos mos profiable bank Halyk They are numbe
983090 on he 983090983088983089983094 Forbes Billionaires Lis or Kazakhsan
wih a ne worh o 983076983090983089 billion
Nazarbayev promoed his nephew Sama Abish o
he posiion o firs depuy chairman o he Naional
Securiy Commitee (KNB) in December 983090983088983089983093
Sources Halyk Bank Forbes Eurasianet
Kazakhstan Nursultan NazarbayevBorn July 983094 983089983097983092983088 (age 983095983093)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Kazakhsan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Kazakh-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Daugher Dari-
ga Nazarbayeva has
served as a lawmaker
and depuy speaker o
he parliamenrsquos lower
house She became
depuy prime miniser in Sepember 983090983088983089983093 and is also
an amaeur opera singer Darigarsquos son Nurali Aliyev
From Dictatorship to Dynasty
Russia Vladimir PutinBorn Ocober 983095 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power Prime
Miniser 983089983097983097983097ndash983090983088983088983088
Presiden 983090983088983088983088ndash983090983088983088983096
Prime Miniser 983090983088983088983096ndash
983090983088983089983090 Presiden 983090983088983089983090ndash
presen
Family According o
Reuers in 983090983088983089983091 Puinrsquosdaugher Kaerina
Tikhonova married Kirill
Shamalov a vice
presiden a he gas and
perochemical processor Sibur and he son o close
Puin associae Nikolay Shamalov In Sepember 983090983088983089983092
Kirill Shamalov acquired an addiional 983089983095 percen o
Sibur increasing his oal sake o 983090983089983091 percen worh
an esimaed 983076983090983096983093 billion Tikhonova holds a high
posiion a Moscow Sae Universiy and is helping
o direc a 983076983089983095 billion projec or he expansion o is
campus
Source Reuters
Belarus Alyaksandr LukashenkaBorn Augus 983091983088 983089983097983093983092 (age 983094983089)
Years in power Presi-
den 983089983097983097983092ndashpresen
Family Lukashenka
has wo sons wih his
esranged wie Galina
Lukashenka Vikor
and Dmiriy Vikor is
reporedly a naionalsecuriy aide engaged
in overseeing Belarusrsquos
lucraive erilizer
expors while Dmiriy
is a businessman and head o he Presidenial Spors
Club Anoher son Nikolay or ldquoKolyardquo has been atend-
ing poliical uncions wih his aher since 983090983088983088983096 when
he was jus our years old He has atended meeings
wih ormer Venezuelan presiden Hugo Chaacutevez Arme
nian leader Serzh Sargsyan Pope Benedic XVI curren
Russian presiden Vladimir Puin and hen presiden
Dmiriy Medvedev who gave him a golden pisol
Sources Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty Belarus in Focus
Seven o he 983089983093 counries o he ormer Sovie Union are now consolidaed auhoriarian regimes a he very bo-
om o he Nations in Transit scale wih Democracy Scores approaching he wors-possible 983095983088983088 Over 983090983090983092 millio
people live in hese counries accouning or 983095983095 percen o he oal populaion o he ormer Sovie Union and
983093983093 percen o he oal populaion o he Nations in Transit coverage area The rulers o he seven counries have
enriched hemselves and heir amiliesmdashand in some cases may be laying he groundwork or herediary rule
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
16
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1827
Tajikistan Emomali RahmonBorn Ocober 983093 983089983097983093983090 (age 983094983091)
Years in power head
o sae 983089983097983097983090ndash983097983092
Presiden 983089983097983097983092ndashpres-
en
Family Rahmonrsquos
daugher Ozoda
Emomali previously
firs depuy oreign
miniser was appoin-
ed her aherrsquos chie
o saff in January
983090983088983089983094 Her husband Jamoliddin Nuraliev is firs depuy
chairman o he Naional Bank o Tajikisan Rahmon
appoined his 983090983096-year-old son Rusam Emomali
as head o he sae anicorrupion agency in 983090983088983089983093
Rusam has also run Tajikisanrsquos Cusoms Agency and
served as a member o he Dushanbe Ciy Council
and leader o Tajikisanrsquos Fooball Federaion
Rahmonrsquos broher-in-law Hasan Asadullozoda owns
he counryrsquos mos imporan business he aluminum
plan TALCO
Rahmonrsquos son-in-law Ashra Gulov is Tajikisanrsquos
consul general o he Russian Federaion Anoher
son-in-law is rade represenaive o Briain Rahmonrsquos
nephew Sirojiddin Gulmorodov is chie o he ax
service in his naive Khalon Province
Sources Eurasianet National Bank of Tajikistan Asia Plus
Uzbekistan Islam KarimovBorn January 983091983088 983089983097983091983096 (age 983095983096)
Years in power Firs
Secreary o he
Communis Pary o
Uzbekisan 983089983097983096983097ndash983097983089
Presiden o Uzbeki-
san 983089983097983097983089ndashpresen
Family Karimovrsquos
eldes daugherGulnara Karimova
has held several dip-
lomaic posiions in-
cluding ambassador o he Unied Naions in Geneva
and depuy oreign miniser She was also known as a
businesswoman and pop singer Previously rumored
o be a possible successor o her aher Karimova has
been under house arres since February 983090983088983089983092 as par
o an embezzlemen case in which she is accused
o aking more han 983076983089 billion in bribes or access o
Uzbekisanrsquos elecommunicaions secor
Karimovrsquos second daugher Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva
is Uzbekisanrsquos ambassador o UNESCO and he head
o several major chariies She and her husband have
purchased homes worh ens o millions o dollars in
Caliornia and Swizerland In 983090983088983089983089 she sued a French
websie or libel afer i called her a ldquodicaorrsquos daugh-
errdquo She los he case
Sources Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)
New York Times Daily Mail
Years
in power
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IlhamAliyev
AlyaksandrLukashenka
IslamKarimov
EmomaliRahmon
VladimirPutin
GurbangulyBerdimuhamedow
NursultanNazarbayev
27 years
10 years
16 years
24 years
27 years
22 years
13 years
EURASIArsquoS OLD GUARD
Photographs PutiniStock Other leadersCreative Commons
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
17
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 1927
Elections 2016TurkmenistanGurbanguly BerdimuhamedowBorn June 983090983097 983089983097983093983095 (age 983093983096)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983094ndashpresen
Family Alhough
Berdimuhamedowrsquosgrandson Kerimguly
has appeared alongside
his grandaher on sae
elevision several imes
here is also specula-
ion ha he presiden is
grooming his son Serdar
o succeed him
Source Radio Free EuropeRadio Liberty
Azerbaijan Ilham AliyevBorn December 983090983092 983089983097983094983089 (age 983093983092)
Years in power Presiden 983090983088983088983091ndashpresen
FamilyAliyev has been
married o Mehriban Ali-
yeva since 983089983097983096983091 She has
served as he presiden o
he Heydar Aliyev Founda-
ion since is creaion in
983090983088983088983092 depuy chairperson
o he ruling New Azerbai-
jan Pary since 983090983088983089983091 anda member o parliamen
since 983090983088983088983093 She is also a
longime member o he Execuive Commitee o he
Naional Olympic Commitee o Azerbaijan and was
chairperson o he Organizing Commitee or he 983090983088983089983093
European Games in Baku
The Aliyevs have hree children Leyla Arzu and
Heydar According o OCCRP reporing hey own real
esae in Dubai worh abou 983076983095983093 million Heydar alone
bough nine waerron mansions in Dubai oaling 983076983092983092
million in 983090983088983089983088 when he was jus 983089983089 years old OCCRPalso ound ha Leyla and Arzu Aliyeva own or are close-
ly conneced o a leas six five-sar hoels in Baku as
well as wo mounain resors
The Aliyev amily conrols asses worh more han 983076983091
billion in a leas eigh major Azerbaijani banks in ad-
diion o sakes in he elecommunicaions consruc-
ion ransporaion mining gas and oil secors
Source OCCRP
April
Serbia early parliamentaryelections
Prime Miniser Aleksandar
Vučić has called early elec-
ions despie his governmen
having an absolue majoriy
in parliamen Vučić says he elecions are
needed o mainain momenum or reorms
in line wih European Union accession bu
hey appear o be jus anoher means o keep
he opposiion on he back oo and urher
consolidae personal power
May
Tajikistan constitutionalreferendum
Afer he eradicaion o he
legal opposiion in 983090983088983089983093
ciizens are being asked
o voe on amendmens
ha will allow Presiden Emomali Rahmon
o remain in office or lie or permi his
983090983097-year-old son Rusam o ake office in
he nex presidenial elecion in 983090983088983090983088 Theonly uncerainy surrounding he ighly
conrolled balloing is how close he ldquoyesrdquo
voe will come o 983089983088983088 percen
June
Macedonia earlyparliamentary elections
The early elecions are he resul
o a June 983090983088983089983093 EU-brokered deal
beween he ruling VMRO-DPMN
pary and he opposiion in hewake o bombshell revelaions o widespread
governmen corrupion and voe rigging Originally
scheduled or April 983090983092 he elecions were delayed
afer he EU and he Unied Saes boh said here
had been inadequae reorms o ensure ree and
air balloing Polls sill show VMRO-DPMNE in he
lead even as a special prosecuor is invesigaing
cases involving he paryrsquos officials
983090983088983089983094 JAN FEB MAR
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
18
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
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NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2027
November
Romania parliamentaryand local elections
Simulaneous elecions will be
held naionwide or parliamen
and local offices This will mark
he firs implemenaion o a
reormed voing sysem and he cones comes
amid popular rusraion wih he main paries
over corrupion and impuniy which drove Prime
Miniser Vicor Pona ou o office in lae 983090983088983089983093
September
Russia parliamentaryelections
The elecions will be a
es o he populariy o
Presiden Vladimir Pu-
inrsquos Unied Russia pary
and o is abiliy o round up voes by anymeans a a ime o economic crisis Wide-
spread raud in he December 983090983088983089983089 elec-
ions led o huge sree proess agains
he governmen and a fierce crackdown
ha coninues o his day
September
Belarus parliamentary electionsThe year will show wheh-
er Presiden Alyaksandr
Lukashenka mainains he
mild ldquohawrdquo o 983090983088983089983093mdashin
which he mended ences wih he EU
wihou hreaening his own powermdashby
allowing some compeiion or seas in
he lower house o parliamen Opposiion
paries currenly have no represenaion inhe body
October
Lithuania parliamentary electionsThe cener-lef Lihuanian
Social Democraic Pary
is he avorie o reain ispluraliy in he parliamen
and orm a governmen again bu corrupion
scandals could increase suppor or he Lib-
eral Movemen and he cener-righ Home-
land UnionndashLihuanian Chrisian Democras
October
Georgia parliamentary electionsThe ruling Georgian Dream
(GD) and opposiion Unied
Naional Movemen (UNM)
have been posiioning or
hese elecions since early 983090983088983089983093 The las par-
liamenary elecions in 983090983088983089983090 oppled he UNMand brough he GD o power Frusraion wih
boh he GD and he UNM could produce gains
or pro-Russian paries despie overall suppor
or Georgiarsquos long-sanding policy orienaion
oward Europe and he Unied Saes
October
Montenegro parliamentary electionsWih he excepion o wo ldquoreiremensrdquo
in 983090983088983088983094ndash983088983096 and 983090983088983089983088ndash983089983090 Prime MiniserMilo ETHukanović has held he premiership
or he presidency since 983089983097983097983089 Lae 983090983088983089983093
eaured proess by naionaliss opposed o membership
n NATO and civic aciviss rusraed wih lack o progress
n fighing corrupion The ruling Democraic Pary o So-
ialiss will likely reain is pluraliy in he parliamen bu
here could be pressure on ETHukanović o reire or good
ow ha NATO membership has been achieved
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
19
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2127
MethodologyNations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 measures progress and se-
backs or democraizaion in 983090983097 counries rom Cenral
Europe o Cenral Asia The 983090983089s ediion o his annual
sudy covers evens rom January 983089 hrough December
983091983089 983090983088983089983093 In consulaion wih counry repor auhors
a panel o academic advisers and a group o regional
exper reviewers Freedom House provides numerical
raings or each counry on seven indicaors
bull National Democratic Governance Consid-
ers he democraic characer and sabiliy o he
governmenal sysem he independence e-
eciveness and accounabiliy o legislaive and
execuive branches and he democraic oversigh
o miliary and securiy services
bull Electoral Process Examines naional execuiveand legislaive elecions elecoral processes he
developmen o mulipary sysems and popular
paricipaion in he poliical process
bull Civil Society Assesses he growh o nongov-
ernmenal organizaions (NGOs) heir organiza-
ional capaciy and financial susainabiliy and he
legal and poliical environmen in which hey unc-
ion he developmen o ree rade unions and
ineres group paricipaion in he policy process
bull
Independent Media Addresses he currensae o press reedom including libel laws harass-
men o journaliss and ediorial independence
he emergence o a financially viable privae press
and inerne access or privae ciizens
bull Local Democratic Governance Considers he
decenralizaion o power he responsibiliies
elecion and capaciy o local governmenal bod-
ies and he ransparency and accounabiliy o
local auhoriies
bull Judicial Framework and Independence High-
lighs consiuional reorm human righs proec-
ions criminal code reorm judicial independence
he saus o ehnic minoriy righs guaranees o
equaliy beore he law reamen o suspecs and
prisoners and compliance wih judicial decisions
bull Corruption Focuses on public percepions of cor-
rupion he business ineress of op policymakers
laws on financial disclosure and conflic of ineres
and he efficacy of anicorrupion mechanisms
The raings are based on a scale o 983089 o 983095 wih 983089 repre
sening he highes and 983095 he lowes level o demo-
craic progress Minor o moderae developmens
ypically warran a posiive or negaive change o a
quarer poin (983088983090983093) while significan developmens
warran a hal poin (983088983093983088) I is rare or any caegory o
change by more han a hal poin in a single year
A counryrsquos Democracy Score is he average of is raings
on all seven indicaors covered by Nations in Transit
Based on he Democracy Score Freedom House assign
each counry o one of he following regime ypes
Consolidated Democracies (983089983088983088-983090983097983097) Counrie
receiving his score embody he bes policies and
pracices o liberal democracy bu may ace chal-
lengesmdashofen associaed wih corrupionmdashha
conribue o a slighly lower score
Semi-Consolidated Democracies (983091983088983088-983091983097983097) Counries receiving his score are elecoral democ
racies ha mee relaively high sandards or he se
lecion o naional leaders bu exhibi weaknesses
in heir deense o poliical righs and civil liberies
Transitional or Hybrid Regimes (983092983088983088-983092983097983097) Coun
ries receiving his score are ypically elecoral
democracies where democraic insiuions are
ragile and subsanial challenges o he proec-
ion o poliical righs and civil liberies exis
Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983093983088983088-
983093983097983097) Counries receiving his score atemp o mas
auhoriarianism or rely on informal power srucure
wih limied respec for he insiuions and pracice
of democracy They ypically fail o mee even he
minimum sandards of elecoral democracy
Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes (983094983088983088-983095983088983088)Counries receiving his score are closed socieie
in which dicaors preven poliical compeiion
and pluralism and are responsible or widespread
violaions o basic poliical civil and human righ
Nations in Transit does no rae governmens per se no
does i rae counries based on governmenal inenion
or legislaion alone Raher a counryrsquos raings are de-
ermined by considering he pracical effec of he sae
and nongovernmenal acors on an individualrsquos righs
and freedoms A more deailed descripion of he meh-
odology including complee checklis quesions for eac
democracy indicaor can be found a htpsfreedom-
houseorgrepornaions-ransi-983090983088983089983094mehodology
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
20
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2227
CATEGORIESCountry EP CS IM NDG LDG JFI CO DS
Estonia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983090983093 983090983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983093983088 983089983097983091
Slovenia 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088 983089983093983088 983090983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983088983088
Latvia 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983090983088983088 983090983088983088 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983090983088983095
Czech Republic 983089983090983093 983089983095983093 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983095983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983090983089
Lithuania 983090983088983088 983089983095983093 983090983090983093 983090983095983093 983090983090983093 983089983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Poland 983089983093983088 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983090983095983093 983089983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983093983088 983090983091983090
Slovakia 983089983093983088 983089983095983093 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983090983093983088 983090983095983093 983091983095983093 983090983094983089
Bulgaria 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983090983093
Hungary 983090983095983093 983090983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983088983088 983091983088983088 983092983088983088 983091983090983097
Romania 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983091983095983093 983091983095983093 983091983092983094
Croatia 983091983088983088 983090983095983093 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983094983096
Serbia 983091983090983093 983090983090983093 983092983093983088 983092983088983088 983091983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983095983093
Montenegro 983091983093983088 983090983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983088983088 983093983088983088 983091983097983091
Albania 983091983095983093 983091983088983088 983092983090983093 983092983093983088 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983090983093 983092983089983092
Macedonia 983091983095983093 983091983090983093 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983093983088 983092983090983097
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983091983090983093 983091983093983088 983092983095983093 983093983095983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983093983088
Georgia 983092983093983088 983091983095983093 983092983088983088 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983092983093983088 983092983094983089
Ukraine 983091983093983088 983090983090983093 983092983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983090983093 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983092983094983096
Moldova 983092983088983088 983091983090983093 983093983088983088 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983092983096983097
Kosovo 983092983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983090983093 983093983093983088 983092983093983088 983093983095983093 983094983088983088 983093983088983095
Armenia 983093983095983093 983091983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983095983093 983093983093983088 983093983090983093 983093983091983094
Kyrgyzstan 983093983090983093 983092983095983093 983094983088983088 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983093983096983097
Russia 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983090983093 983095983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983092
Kazakhstan 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983093983088 983094983094983089
Belarus 983094983095983093 983094983090983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983094983092
Azerbaijan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983093983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Turkmenistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Uzbekistan 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983095983088983088 983094983095983093 983094983097983091
Average 983091983097983096 983091983094983089 983092983093983097 983092983095983095 983092983090983097 983092983093983092 983092983097983090 983092983091983097
Median 983091983093983088 983091983088983088 983092983093983088 983092983095983093 983092983088983088 983092983093983088 983093983088983088 983092983090983097
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 CATEGORY AND DEMOCRACY SCORE SUMMARY
CategoriesEP - Electoral ProcessCS - Civil Society
IM - Independent Media
Countries are rated on a scale of 1 to 7
with 1 representing the highest and 7 thelowest level of democratic progress The
average of these ratings is each countryrsquos
Democracy Score (DS)
NDG - National Democratic GovernanceLDG - Local Democratic GovernanceJFI - Judicial Framework and Independence
CO - Corruption
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
21
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2327
Country 983090983088983088983095 983090983088983088983096 983090983088983088983097 983090983088983089983088 983090983088983089983089 983090983088983089983090 983090983088983089983091 983090983088983089983092 983090983088983089983093 983090983088983089983094
Central Europe
Bulgaria 983090983096983097 983090983096983094 983091983088983092 983091983088983092 983091983088983095 983091983089983092 983091983089983096 983091983090983093 983091983090983097 983091983090983093
Czech Republic 983090983090983093 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983090983093 983090983090983089 983090983090983089
Estonia 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983094 983089983097983091Hungary 983090983089983092 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983091983097 983090983094983089 983090983096983094 983090983096983097 983090983097983094 983091983089983096 983091983090983097
Latvia 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983089983092 983090983089983089 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095 983090983088983095
Lithuania 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983090983093 983090983090983093 983090983090983097 983090983091983090 983090983091983094 983090983091983094 983090983091983090
Poland 983090983091983094 983090983091983097 983090983090983093 983090983091983090 983090983090983089 983090983089983092 983090983089983096 983090983089983096 983090983090983089 983090983091983090
Romania 983091983090983097 983091983091983094 983091983091983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983091 983091983092983091 983091983093 983091983092983094 983091983092983094 983091983092983094
Slovakia 983090983089983092 983090983090983097 983090983092983094 983090983094983096 983090983093983092 983090983093 983090983093983095 983090983094983089 983090983094983092 983090983094983089
Slovenia 983089983096983090 983089983096983094 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983089983096983097 983089983096983097 983089983097983091 983089983097983091 983090983088983088
Average 983090983091983090 983090983091983091 983090983091983097 983090983092983092 983090983092983091 983090983092983093 983090983092983095 983090983093983088 983090983093983091 983090983093983093
Median 983090983090983088 983090983090983088 983090983090983095 983090983090983097 983090983090983091 983090983090983092 983090983090983093 983090983091983089 983090983090983097 983090983091983090
BalkansAlbania 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983097983091 983092983088983092 983092983089983092 983092983090983093 983092983089983096 983092983089983092 983092983089983092
Bosnia-Herzegovina 983092983088983092 983092983089983089 983092983089983096 983092983090983093 983092983091983090 983092983091983094 983092983091983097 983092983092983091 983092983092983094 983092983093983088
Croatia 983091983095983093 983091983094983092 983091983095983089 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983089 983091983094983089 983091983094983096 983091983094983096 983091983094983096
Kosovo 983093983091983094 983093983090983089 983093983089983092 983093983088983095 983093983089983096 983093983089983096 983093983090983093 983093983089983092 983093983089983092 983093983088983095
Macedonia 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983094 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092 983092983088983095 983092983090983097
Montenegro 983091983097983091 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983094 983091983096983097 983091983097983091
Serbia 983091983094983096 983091983095983097 983091983095983097 983091983095983089 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983092 983091983094983096 983091983095983093
Average 983092983088983094 983092983088983091 983092983088983092 983092983088983092 983092983088983095 983092983088983097 983092983089983091 983092983089983091 983092983089983093 983092983089983097
Median 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983096983090 983091983095983097 983091983096983090 983091983096983097 983091983097983091 983092983088983088 983092983088983095 983092983089983092
Eurasia
Armenia 983093983090983089 983093983090983089 983093983091983097 983093983091983097 983093983092983091 983093983091983097 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094 983093983091983094
Azerbaijan 983094983088983088 983094983088983088 983094983090983093 983094983091983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983095 983094983094983092 983094983094983096 983094983095983093 983094983096983094
Belarus 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983093983095 983094983093 983094983093983095 983094983094983096 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983095983089 983094983094983092
Georgia 983092983094983096 983092983095983097 983092983097983091 983092983097983091 983092983096983094 983092983096983090 983092983095983093 983092983094983096 983092983094983092 983092983094983089
Kazakhstan 983094983091983097 983094983091983097 983094983091983090 983094983092983091 983094983092983091 983094983093983092 983094983093983095 983094983094983089 983094983094983089 983094983094983089
Kyrgyzstan 983093983094983096 983093983097983091 983094983088983092 983094983090983089 983094983089983089 983094983088983088 983093983097983094 983093983096983097 983093983097983091 983093983096983097
Moldova 983092983097983094 983093983088983088 983093983088983095 983093983089983092 983092983097983094 983092983096983097 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983096983094 983092983096983097
Russia 983093983096983094 983093983097983094 983094983089983089 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983089983096 983094983090983089 983094983090983097 983094983092983094 983094983093983088
Tajikistan 983093983097983094 983094983088983095 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983092 983094983089983096 983094983090983093 983094983091983090 983094983091983097 983094983093983092
Turkmenistan 983094983097983094 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Ukraine 983092983090983093 983092983090983093 983092983091983097 983092983091983097 983092983094983089 983092983096983090 983092983096983094 983092983097983091 983092983095983093 983092983094983096
Uzbekistan 983094983096983090 983094983096983094 983094983096983097 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091 983094983097983091
Average 983093983095983097 983093983096983092 983093983097983090 983093983097983094 983093983097983095 983093983097983097 983094983088983088 983094983088983090 983094983088983091 983094983088983092
Median 983093983097983089 983093983097983096 983094983089983091 983094983089983096 983094983089983094 983094983089983096 983094983090983091 983094983091983089 983094983092983091 983094983093983090
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 DEMOCRACY SCORE HISTORY BY REGION
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
22
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2427
NATIONS IN TRANSIT 2016 AVERAGE REGIONAL CATEGORY SCORES
Corruption
JudicialFramework andIndependence
LocalDemocraticGovernance
NationalDemocraticGovernance
IndependenMedi
CivilSociety
Electoral Process
6
7
5
4
3
2
1
Central Europe
Balkans
Eurasia
The NIT ratings are based on a scale of 983089 to 983095 with 983089 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 983095 the lowest The NIT 983090983088983089983094ratings reflect the period from 983089 January through 983091983089 December 983090983088983089983093
wwwreedomhouseorg
Freedom House
23
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2527
Notes
Nations in Transit 2016 Europe and Eurasia Brace for Impact
24
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2627
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen
8182019 Nations in Transit 2016
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullnations-in-transit-2016 2727
Freedom House is a nonprofinonparisan organizaion hasuppors democraic change
i d d d
983089983096983093983088 M Sree NW 983089983089h Floor Washingon DC 983090983088983088983091983094
wwwreedomhouseorgFacebookcomFreedomHouseDCreedomhouseDC983090983088983090 983090983097983094 983093983089983088983089983090983088 ll S 983090983094 h l
Nations in Transit 983090983088983089983094 was made pos-
sible wih he generous suppor o he US
Agency or Inernaional Developmen