Data source: The Commonwealth Financial Planning Carers in Financial Stress Report.

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

SecondarySolo mum

Post-secondary SecondaryPartnered mum

Post-secondary

Primary carers

Other females

Gross individual income from wages and salaries during the working lives of 30-year old women with two or more children who are primary carers of a child with a disability compared with other females, 2006

NEWSDecember 2008

NATIONAL CENTRE FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC MODELLING ISSN NO. 1320 0046 ISSUE #31

CARERS REWARDEDWITH LESS WAGES AND POORER HEALTH

Home-based care provided by family

members is becoming the preferred model

in Australia for people requiring long-term

care. However, it is becoming increasingly

evident that this model of care comes at

a cost to the family members who take

on the informal carer role. NATSEM was

commissioned by Carers Australia to model

the health and economic consequences

of providing care, focusing specifi cally on

women who are the primary carers.

The study found that the responsibilities and

duties of providing care affect the long-term

health of the carer. Women who are the

primary carers experience poorer health status

later in life when compared with other women

in the Australian population. For example,

on average, 30-year old primary carers can

expect to spend less than 80 per cent of their

remaining 35 years of their working lives in a

healthy state, compared with other women

who will spend 90 per cent of their working

lives in a healthy state.

Women primary carers are less able to

participate in paid jobs. More than half of

women primary carers who are 30–64 years

old are not in paid employment when the

corresponding proportion for other women is

less than a third. Women primary carers who

are in paid employment work fewer hours than

do women with similar characteristics but who

do not have primary carer responsibilities. Only

a fi fth of women primary carers are in full-time

employment compared with nearly two-fi fths

of other women aged 30–64 years.

The fi nancial consequences of lower rates of

workforce participation were clearly evident

when prospective earnings of primary carers

during their working lives were examined.

For example, during her working life a mother

caring for a child with a disability is likely to

earn a quarter to a half of the income earned(continued on page 2)

Some of the participants at the ‘Creating socio-economic data for small areas: Methods and outcomes’ workshop held on 19 September at the University of Canberra. (see page 6 for full story)

FIGURE 1

2 NATSEM NEWS

recently in Paris to the OECD (Organisation

for Economic Co-operation and Development)

and INSEE (French National Institute for

Statistics and Economic Studies), describing

microsimulation modelling efforts at NATSEM.

This was complemented by meetings with

French modellers, with this exceptionally

useful exchange funded through a FEAST

grant from the Academy of the Social

Sciences in Australia and the French Embassy.

Early next year, with funding from the

Australia–Japan Foundation, I will hold a series

of seminars and model demonstrations with

the Japanese Government and associated

institutes. Japan is now constructing both

dynamic and static microsimulation models,

prompted partly by the possible impact of

population ageing on its pension schemes.

The next international gathering of

microsimulators will be on 8–10 June 2009

in Ottawa, Canada, and the strong response

to the call for papers suggests that this

conference will be a signifi cant event. The

abstracts span a very wide range of modelling

approaches and policy issues, and the

conference will provide an important forum for

information exchange. I hope to see you there!

Ann Harding

It has become very clear in recent years

that international collaboration is an

important mechanism for reducing

the cost of building microsimulation

models. Microsimulation models are

so complex that they typically have

high developmental costs. Using

earlier research and techniques as

leverage can pay dividends for those

countries embarking on construction or

enhancement of their models.

One good example is the collaboration

between NATSEM and the University of

Auckland, which has included exchanging

code and technical know-how with Professor

Peter Davis’s team, which is building the

PCASO model of primary care in New

Zealand. This exchange has reduced the time

involved in constructing the model.

Similar information sharing is a product

of NATSEM’s expanded visiting fellows

program. In September two experts in spatial

microsimulation from the University of Leeds

visited NATSEM. Dr Kimberley Edwards

and Dr Mark Birkin were both presenters at

NATSEM’s one-day workshop ‘Small area

estimation and spatial microsimulation’,

allowing other Australians to gain insight

into spatial microsimulation methods in the

United Kingdom.

The importance of knowledge transfer was

also underlined in two seminars I presented

by a women sharing the same characteristics

but who is not a primary carer (Figure 1).

A woman’s level of education plays an

important role in determining the impact of

taking on a primary carer role. For example,

30-year-old mothers who have no higher

than secondary school education, have two

or more children and care for a child with

a disability are expected to earn less than

$100 000 (in 2006 dollars) during their working

lives. Women sharing the same characteristics

but without the primary care responsibilities

would earn four times that amount over their

remaining working lives (Figure 1).

The study also showed that while primary

carers receive more in government benefi ts

than other women, these benefi ts do not

compensate fully for the income from paid work

that they forgo. In addition, women primary

carers who are not able to participate in paid

employment as a consequence of their caring

responsibilities can expect to have, at the age

of 65 years, a fraction of the superannuation

that would typically be available to other

women. Thirty-year-old mothers caring for

children with a disability would expect to have

on average a mere $25 000 (in 2006 dollars) in

superannuation when they turn 65—completely

insuffi cient for a comfortable retirement.

Overall, this study noted that the women

primary carers lag considerably behind other

women in terms of health, employment and

earning prospects over their working lives.

The full report can be accessed on NATSEM’s

website <www.natsem.com.au>.

The study was commissioned by Carers

Australia and funded by Commonwealth

Financial Planning and Eli Lilly Australia Pty

Ltd. The report’s authors are Binod Nepal,

Laurie Brown, Geetha Ranmuthugala and

Richard Percival.

A H di

Professor Ann Harding at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) centre in France, pictured (from left to right) with OECD representatives Dr Michael Forster, Dr Peter Scherer, Professor Chris Heady and Dr Asghar Zaidi (also Vice-President of the International Microsimulation Association).

Professor Ann Harding at the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies, France, in August 2008 with Dr Sophie Pennec (right) and Dr Didier Blanchet.

(continued from page 1)

FROM THE DIRECTOR’S DESK

NATSEM NEWS 3

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

(continued on page 4)

ADVANCE AUSTRALIA FAIR?

The 20th AMP.NATSEM report examined the

trends in income, unemployment, immigration

and other socioeconomic factors for different

geographic regions of Australia between the

censuses of 2001 and 2006. It found that

the gross income of an average Australian

household grew by 31 per cent during

that period. However, the growth in weekly

household income in the wealthiest suburbs

was 36.5 per cent while that of the poorest

suburbs was only 29 per cent. This helps

to explain the fact that the increase in gross

income of rich households in 2006 was more

than double that of low income households.

Most of the high income areas were in capital

cities, with very few high income areas in rural

areas (Figure 2). Canberra is the richest capital

city in Australia and has more high income

areas than any other city. The few high income

areas in remote regions tended to be mining

towns in Western Australia and Queensland.

In addition to the contrast in gross household

income, housing costs showed big changes

between different regions between the two

censuses. From 2001 to 2006 the housing

cost of the average Australian household

increased by a substantial 62 per cent—from

$123 to $199 a week. The biggest increases

were in Adelaide, Brisbane, Hobart and

Canberra where housing costs increased by

between 63 and 68 per cent. Middle income

areas were the hardest hit, with housing costs

increasing almost 65 per cent compared with

54 per cent for affl uent areas and 48 per cent

for low income areas. However, the high costs

of housing signifi cantly offset the increases

in gross household income in a number of

big cities, such as Sydney and Melbourne.

Despite that, interestingly these two cities

were still the most popular destinations for

migrants, with 30 per cent choosing to live in

Sydney and 24 per cent in Melbourne. Very

few chose to experience Australian life in rural

and regional areas.

The report was prepared by Quoc Ngo Vu,

Ann Harding, Rob Tanton, Binod Nepal and

Yogi Vidyattama and can be found at

<www.amp.com.au/ampnatsemreports>.

APPSIM

Work continues to develop APPSIM,

NATSEM’s new dynamic microsimulation

model. When completed, APPSIM will

simulate the projected distribution of

outcomes to changes in Australian policy.

Earlier this year the designs of a number of

APPSIM components were fi nalised and

approved by the project’s Steering Committee.

This allowed the team to complete the coding

of the education, labour force and earnings

modules. These elements of the model are now

functional within the prototype, and working

papers on the design and development of each

of these components were published.

The team also developed a new interface that

produces a greater range of output statistics,

and the fertility, couple formation and couple

dissolution modules were refi ned and

improved as more data became available and

research was undertaken.

Our research is now concentrated on

developing the equations for the savings

and wealth module, researching health,

social security and taxation, and aligning the

outputs from the labour force, education and

earnings modules.

Dr Sophie Pennec, from INED, the National

Institute of Demographic Studies in France,

returned in early 2008 for six months and was

a major contributor to the fi ne tuning of the

demographics modelling. Sharyn Lymer joined

earlier this year as the second Australian

Postgraduate Award Industry scholar and will

be a major contributor to the modelling

of health.

For further information about the research

being conducted through the APPSIM project,

please contact Ann Harding.

STINMOD

In recent months the STINMOD team has

been working in close cooperation with federal

government clients, particularly Treasury, on

the next versions of STINMOD08. STINMOD08

is based on the 2003–04 and the 2005–06

Survey of Income and Housing undertaken by

the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The latest

available demographic, administrative and

other social and economic data are used for

creating the base fi les, which cover the period

December 2008 to June 2014.

The recently released STINMOD08

incorporates several important changes,

which were announced in the May 2008

budget. There are also some important

enhancements to the outyears and interface

versions. Licences for the STINMOD08

interface version are expected to be available

from late November to early December. For

further information about STINMOD licences,

please contact Quoc Ngu Vu.

The previous version, STINMOD07, was

recently used for important research for

domestic and international conferences.

This work included a study of the top income

2000

1500

1000

500

0NSW

1510

1048

VIC

1026

1356

QLD

1141

1364

SA

992

1148

WA

1215

1358

TAS

945

1118

NT

1460

ACT

1778

AUST

1075

1393

$ pe

r w

eek

Capital CityOther

Average gross household income by state and territory, 2006

Data source: Estimated from Australian Bureau of Statistics 2006 census tables.

FIGURE 2

4 NATSEM NEWS

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

Instant Atlas in action, running the Child Social Exclusion Risk map of south-eastern Victoria.

distribution in Australia during the decade to

2005–06, research on liberalising Family Tax

Benefi ts Part A, and an analysis of poverty

among elderly Australians and the impact

of changes in the Age Pension. This version

was also used for a consultancy project

undertaken with Allen Consulting Group on

the reform of the tax–transfer system

in Australia.

The STINMOD team consists of Annie Abello,

Quoc Ngu Vu and Alicia Payne, and is led by

Jeannie McLellan and Richard Percival.

INSTANT ATLAS FOR SMALL

AREA STATISTICS

NATSEM has introduced interactive online

maps to present small area statistics. The

maps provide users better understanding

and usage of small area statistics through

interactive features such as zooming and

moving to areas of interest. In addition,

users can sort, mark and fi lter the data in the

maps to enhance their understandings of

the statistics’ spatial patterns. These maps

were created using Instant Atlas 5. They can

be viewed in web browsers such as Internet

Explorer and Firefox. Currently, NATSEM

uses double and single map templates for

presenting these maps.

The double map template consists of two

maps, a data table and a correlation graph.

It is used mainly to compare the spatial

distribution of two variables. This template

is suitable for planning purposes, especially

in terms of resource allocation. There are

several maps in the double map template on

NATSEM’s website for the project ’Regional

dimensions: the spatial implications of

population ageing and needs-based planning

of government services’. This project is

supported by the Australian Research Council

and the New South Wales, Queensland,

Victorian and ACT governments.

The single map template consists of a map

and a data table. It is a more convenient

template for recognising the pattern of

spatial distribution or browsing the small area

statistics in a database. This template was

introduced to present small area statistics

estimated by several spatial models developed

by NATSEM. Currently, several maps have

been constructed in this template for limited

distribution of estimates of the poverty rate,

housing stress, and child social exclusion

produced by NATSEM.

The online maps are available at <http://www.

canberra.edu.au/centres/natsem/maps>. For

further information about this research, please

contact Robert Tanton.

(continued from page 3)

NATSEM NEWS 5

HEADARESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

NATSEM MOVING FORWARD

WITH RESEARCH ON CHILD

SOCIAL EXCLUSION

In the fi rst half of 2008, major progress was

made at NATSEM in analysing the risk of social

exclusion for children at a small area level.

Previous work had involved producing an index

of that risk for small areas in Australia, with the

Statistical Local Area as the base unit of spatial

analysis and using data from the 2001 Census

of Population and Housing undertaken by the

Australian Bureau of Statistics. The release

of 2006 census data in 2007 allowed us to

update this index, and a paper describing the

development of and fi ndings from the 2006

index was presented in July at the Australian

Institute of Family Studies (AIFS) conference

in Melbourne. This work was funded by an

Australian Research Council Discovery Grant.

In updating the index to 2006, we were able

to incorporate two new variables for which

data had not been available from the 2001

census. These were a variable that captures

whether children live in homes with internet

access, and a variable that describes whether

either of the child’s parents participated in any

volunteer work in the 12 months preceding

the census. Both variables are related to the

underlying concept of social exclusion, and

enhance the index. The 2006 index shows

that there are pronounced spatial differences

in the risk of child social exclusion, with high

risk common in Australia’s rural and regional

areas, and apparent in clusters of outer areas

in most of Australia’s capital cities. Figure 3

shows that children who live in capital cities

have less social exclusion risk than the state

as a whole.

In addition to the 2006 snapshot of the risk of

social exclusion for children, work has been

progressing on developing a version of the

index that can be used to compare trends

in overall child social exclusion, and in the

underlying variables that make up the index.

A paper that describes the methodology

of this approach and the results from a

comparison of 2001 and 2006 regional child

social exclusion data was presented at the

conference of the International Association

for Research in Income and Wealth (IARIW)

in Slovenia in August. This paper was funded

by an Australian Research Council Linkage

Grant, with support from linkage partners—

government partners from New South Wales,

Victorian, Queensland and the ACT, as well as

the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We found

an overall tendency for child social exclusion

risk to persist in small areas, although we

also found some tentative support for a

possible narrowing of the risk gap between

the highest risk and lowest risk areas across

the fi ve years.

Both the AIFS and IARIW papers are available

from NATSEM’s website. Collaborating with

Ann Harding, Robert Tanton and Justine

McNamara from NATSEM on these papers

was Associate Professor Anne Daly from the

University of Canberra, a chief investigator

on the original Australian Research Council

Discovery Grant that funded this work.

In an exciting new development, interactive

online maps of child social exclusion risk

are now available on NATSEM’s website.

These maps allow anyone to view the risk of

social exclusion for children in their area, and

allow users to download the raw data (child

population-weighted quintiles of child social

exclusion risk) in Excel format (see ‘Instant

Atlas for small area statistics’, page 4).

TAKE THE LEAD

Once again NATSEM presented its recent

fi ndings in social and economic trends to

the ACT Government. Rebecca Cassells

and Riyana Miranti gave presentations titled

‘Social and economic trends for the ACT

and Australia’ on 3 and 17 September under

the ACT Public Service ‘Take the Lead’

seminar series, which targets up-and-coming

leadership staff. NATSEM has provided

these presentations for several years. The

presentation covered several contemporary

and topical issues, which included

demographic trends, health and caring,

income and wealth, housing affordability

and housing stress, and poverty and

disadvantage. The presentations were well

received and very interactive as participants

became involved in the discussions.

0

10

20

30

40

% o

f ch

ildre

n

Child social exclusion quintile for children 0–15 years old

Most excluded 20% Least excluded 20%Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4

Capital city

Balance of state

19.4

21.3

13.1

15.5

28.0

23.3

14.6

28.8

4.7

31.5

Proportion of children in CSE quintiles, capital cities vs balance, 2006

Data sources: ABS Census of Population and Housing 2006, authors’ calculations.

FIGURE 3

6 NATSEM NEWS

NATSEM STAFF TRAVEL TO

AUSTRALIA’S CENTRE FOR

THE AUSTRALIAN POPULATION

ASSOCIATION CONFERENCE

NATSEM was represented at the 14th biennial

conference of the Australia Population

Association by Laurie Brown, Binod Nepal

and Riyana Miranti (Mira). The conference

was held in Alice Springs from 30 June to

3 July 2008. Laurie presented three papers

covering health and medical issues linked to

an ageing population—‘Development of a

dynamic microsimulation model to investigate

how to best compress morbidity in older

Australians and optimise ageing’, ‘Projecting

the prevalence and costs of type 2 diabetes

with an ageing population’, and ‘Impact

of population ageing on the use and costs

of government subsidised medicines in

Australia’. Binod gave two presentations—one

on population-level estimates of dementia-

free life expectancy in Australia and the other

on lifetime socioeconomic gaps between

Indigenous and other Australians. Mira’s

presentation investigated the trends in

childlessness among professional women

in Australia.

Health and economic gaps between

Indigenous and non-Indigenous people and

demographic changes associated with ageing

and spatial distribution have become central

themes in contemporary Australian public

policy debate. Research on these themes was

discussed in detail at this conference.

UNDERSTANDING INCOME TAX,

SOCIAL SECURITY AND FAMILY

PAYMENTS PROGRAMS

In June, NATSEM ran a popular two-day

training course, ‘Understanding income

tax, social security and family payments

programs’, designed for those new to social

policy who need to quickly develop an

understanding of Australia’s income tax and

social security programs.

The fi rst day of the course focused on

Australia’s main income tax and social security

programs, the policy objectives they are

designed to serve, and the challenges facing

the tax–transfer system.

The second day of the course provided an

introduction to microsimulation models and

how policy analysts can use these models

in their work. Participants were given an

overview of STINMOD, NATSEM’s fl agship

microsimulation model of the Australian

income tax and social security system, and

learned how to use the STINMOD interface to

simulate policy changes.

The course attracted 22 participants from

various government agencies including the

Department of Families, Housing, Community

Services and Indigenous Affairs, the Treasury

and the Australian Fair Pay Commission

Secretariat. It was organised and presented

by Ann Harding, Quoc Ngu Vu and Annie

Abello. NATSEM is reviewing demand for a

repeat of the course in 2009.

SMALL AREA ESTIMATION WORKSHOP

On 19 September, NATSEM hosted

the one-day workshop ‘Creating socio-

economic data for small areas: methods

and outcomes’, which was jointly funded by

the Australian Research Council Research

Network on Spatially Integrated Social

Science (ARCRNSISS), NATSEM and the

Australian Research Council ‘Opportunity and

Disadvantage’ Discovery Grant (DP0664429).

The workshop, organised by Ann Harding,

was attended by more than 70 researchers

and policy makers from a very large range of

universities, government departments and

other agencies.

The event provided excellent opportunities for

researchers to share a range of developing

methodologies for producing small area

estimates of data relevant to social policy,

and the results these models produce. The

workshop was opened by Susan Linacre,

Deputy Australian Statistician, and her

presentation was followed by Australian

and international researchers presenting

material demonstrating the applications of

small area estimation to areas as diverse as

health, transport, poverty, disability services,

the labour market, and literacy. Two visiting

NATSEM fellows from the University of Leeds

in the United Kingdom presented spatial

microsimulation models. Professor Mark Birkin

discussed MoSeS (Modelling and Simulation

for e-Social Science) spatial microsimulation

model and its use in transport planning and

Dr Kimberly Edwards presented material from

SimObesity, a spatial microsimulation model

of small area childhood obesity. Statisticians

from the University of Wollongong and the

Australian Bureau of Statistics also presented

papers on statistical models for small area

estimation.

A special edition of Applied Spatial Analysis

and Policy will publish a selection of the

papers from this workshop, and the

workshop presentations are available on

NATSEM’s website.

From left to right, Laurie Brown, Binod Nepal, Riyana Miranti (NATSEM) and Sophie Pennec (National Institute of Demographic Studies, France) at the Australian Population Association conference in Alice Springs.

CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS

NATSEM NEWS 7

Measurement and Small Area Estimation’ and

‘Sub-National and Regional Estimation’.

The conference provided a good opportunity

for NATSEM participants to meet old friends

and make new ones. Quoc Ngu Vu met

with groups of researchers from Korea and

Japan and with a Vietnamese scholar who

is working on social security in Vietnam.

Through these meetings, he was able to

establish a new network with researchers in

Singapore and Hong Kong.

ANNUAL CONFERENCE

OF ECONOMISTS

The 37th Annual Conference of

Economists was held in Surfers Paradise,

Queensland, from 30 September to

3 October. The conference covered a wide

range of topics in economics—theoretical

and applied economics including

international, welfare, health and labour, and

environmental economics.

NATSEM was represented by Ann Harding,

Rebecca Cassells and Riyana Miranti (Mira).

Ann presented ‘Improving work incentives

for mothers: the national and geographic

impact of liberalizing the family tax benefi t

income test’. Her paper tested two reform

options for the Family Tax Benefi t Part A by

reducing the withdrawal rates associated with

the benefi t’s income tests, and examined the

impacts at both the national level and in small

local areas. Rebecca Cassells presented

‘The gender wage gap for generation Y in

Australia’. Using data from the Household

Income and Labour Dynamics Survey of

Australia, Rebecca analysed and compared

the gender wage gap of generation Y in

2002 with the gap in 2006. Mira presented

‘Children with jobless parents: National and

small area trends for Australia in the past

decade’, which examined national and

spatial trends in the number and proportion

of children with jobless parents since 1997

(see page 10 for a snapshot of this paper).

IARIW CONFERENCE IN SLOVENIA

The 30th general conference of the

International Association for Research in

Income and Wealth (IARIW) was held from

24 to 30 August in Potoroz, Slovenia.

The conference attracted a record of 290

delegates—researchers, policy makers and

policy practitioners from 38 countries. The

13 delegates from Australian universities and

federal government departments made up

one of the largest groups from one country.

Ann Harding and Quoc Ngu Vu represented

NATSEM at the conference. Associated

Professor Anne Daley from Department of

Economics at University of Canberra also

attended the conference.

Papers presented at the conference covered

a wide range of theoretical and practical

issues related to income and wealth. The two

NATSEM papers presented were ‘Has the

risk of social exclusion for Australian children

become more geographically concentrated?

Patterns from 2001 to 2006’ by Anne Daly,

Ann Harding, Justine McNamara, Robert

Tanton and Mandy Yap and ‘A growing gap?

Trends in economic wellbeing at the top of

the spectrum in Australia’ by Quoc Ngu Vu,

Ann Harding and Richard Percival. Both

papers received a lot interest from conference

participants. Ann Harding also led two

conference sessions, entitled ‘Regional

AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF FAMILY

STUDIES CONFERENCE

Two NATSEM staff members presented

papers at the 10th Australian Institute of

Family Studies conference held in Melbourne

in July. This conference was attended by

Australian and international researchers

from a broad range of disciplines, as well as

many policy makers and practitioners from

government and non-government agencies.

Alicia Payne’s paper ‘Working (poor) families:

trends in working poverty in Australia

1997–2006’ presented analysis of the

results of the Survey of Income and Housing

2005–06 undertaken by the Australian Bureau

of Statistics and examined trends in working

poverty by analysing the fi ve previous surveys

starting in 1997–98. Drawing on the most

recent data and research, the paper explored

the background to these trends and the

context of working poverty in Australia.

Justine McNamara presented a paper

entitled ‘Child social exclusion: an updated

index from the 2006 census’, co-authored

with Ann Harding, Robert Tanton and Anne

Daly and funded by the Australian Research

Council ‘Regional Dimensions’ Linkage Grant

(775396). This paper described the recently

updated version of NATSEM’s child social

exclusion index, based on data from the 2006

Census of Population and Housing.

Ann Harding with some of the discussants from her sessions at the 2008 IARIW conference in Slovenia (from left to right), Dr Steivan Defi lla (State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, Switzerland), Associate Professor Anne Daly (University of Canberra), Professor Lars Osberg (Dalhousie University, Canada), Professor Ann Harding (NATSEM), Professor Holly Sutherland (University of Essex, UK), Kathleen Short (US Census Bureau), Professor Dennis Sullivan (Miami University, United States) and Dr Markus Jantii (Abo Akademi University, Finland).

CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS

8 NATSEM NEWS

HEADARECENT PAPERS AND PRESENTATIONS

CONFERENCE PAPERS/PRESENTATIONS

Harding, A, ‘The implications for social policy

of population ageing’, CEDA State of the

Nation Conference, Hotel Realm, Canberra,

5 June 2008.

Harding, A, ‘Social inclusion: Issues, data

and policy responses’, 3rd BITRE Regional

Perspectives Conference, Parliament House,

Canberra, 17 June 2008.

Nepal, B, Tanton, R, Harding, A, &

McNamara, J, ‘Measuring housing stress at

small area levels: How much do defi nitions

matter?’, 3rd Australasian Housing

Researchers Conference, Melbourne,

18-20 June 2008. (CP118)

Miranti, R, Yap, M, McNamara, J, Tanton, R,

‘Where have all the children gone?: Trends

in the childlessness of professional women

in Australia’, 14th biennial conference of

the Australian Population Association, Alice

Springs, 30 June - 3 July 2008. (CP119)

Brown, L, & Abello, A, ‘Impact of population

ageing on the use and costs of government

subsidised medicines in Australia’, 14th

biennial conference of the Australian

Population Association, Alice Springs,

30 June - 3 July 2008. (P141)

Harding, A, Brown, L, Pennec, S, Booth,

H, & Anstey, K, ‘Development of a dynamic

microsimulation model to investigate how to

best compress morbidity in older Australians

and optimise ageing,’ 14th biennial conference

of the Australian Population Association, Alice

Springs, 30 June - 3 July 2008. (P140)

Miranti, R, Yap, M, McNamara, J, & Tanton,

R, ‘Where have all the children gone?: Trends

in the childlessness of professional women

in Australia’, 14th biennial conference of

the Australian Population Association, Alice

Springs, 30 June - 3 July 2008. (P138)

Nepal, B, & Brown, L, ‘Lifetime socio-

economic disadvantage in the Australian

indigenous population’, 14th biennial

conference of the Australian Population

Association, Alice Springs,

30 June - 3 July 2008. (P135)

Nepal, B, & Brown, L, ‘Wide gaps: Lifetime

economic outcomes for Indigenous and all

Australians’, 14th biennial conference of

the Australian Population Association, Alice

Springs, 30 June - 3 July 2008. (CP121)

Pennec, S, & Bacon, B, ‘Demographics in

the new NATSEM dynamic microsimulation

model (APPSIM)’, 14th biennial conference of

the Australian Population Association, Alice

Springs, 30 June - 3 July 2008. (P136)

McNamara, J, Harding, A, Daly, A, & Tanton,

R, ‘Child social exclusion: an updated index

from the 2006 Census’, Australian Institute of

Family Studies Conference, Melbourne,

July 2008. (CP120)

Cassells, R, ‘Children in housing disadvantage

in Australia: a small area analysis’, European

Network of Housing Researchers Conference,

Dublin, Ireland, 7 July 2008.

Vu, QN, & Harding, A, ‘Winners and losers

from tax-transfer system and other changes

during the Howard years’, Conference

on ‘A Future for the Australian Welfare

State? Continuity and Change from Howard

to Rudd’, Macquarie University,

25 July 2008. (P145)

McNamara, J, Daly, A, Harding, A, &

Tanton, R, ‘Has the risk of social exclusion

for Australian children become more

geographically concentrated?: Patterns from

2001 to 2006’, 30th General Conference of

the International Association for Research

in Income and Wealth, 24-30 August 2008,

Slovenia. (CP123)

Vu, QN, Harding, A, & Percival, R, ‘A growing

gap? Trends in economic wellbeing at the top

of the spectrum in Australia’, 30th General

Conference of the International Association for

Research in Income and Wealth,

24-30 August 2008, Slovenia. (CP122)

Tanton, R, Vidyattama, Y, McNamara, J, Vu,

QN & Harding, A, ‘Old, single and poor: Using

microsimulation and microdata to analyse

poverty and the impact of policy change

among older Australians’, UNU-WIDER

Frontiers of Poverty Analysis, Helsinki,

26-27 September 2008. (CP124)

Cassells, R, ‘The gender wage gap for

generation Y in Australia’, 37th Australian

Conference of Economists, Gold Coast,

30 September – 3 October 2008.

Miranti, R, Harding, A, Vu, QN, McNamara,

J, & Tanton, R, ‘Children with jobless parents:

National and small area trends for Australia in

the past decade’, 37th Australian Conference

of Economists, Gold Coast,

30 September – 3 October 2008. (P158)

Harding, A, Vu, QN, Tanton, R, & Vidyattama,

Y, ‘Improving work incentives for mothers: The

national and geographic impact of liberalising

the Family Tax Benefi t income test’, 37th

Australian Conference of Economists,

Gold Coast, 1 October 2008. (CP125)

Miranti, R, Harding, A, Vu, QN, McNamara,

J, & Tanton, R, ‘Children with jobless parents:

National and small area trends for Australia

in the past decade’, 37th Australian

Conference of Economists, Gold Coast,

1 October 2008. (CP126)

Brown, L, & Abello, A, ‘Recent trends in the

use and costs of government subsidised

medicines in Australia’, 30th Australian

Conference of Health Economists, Adelaide,

2-3 October 2008. (P141)

Thiebaut, S, Brown, L, Abello, A, &

Ranmuthugala, G, ‘Impact of complementary

and alternative medicine use on government

expenditure on the pharmaceuticals benefi t

scheme’, 30th Australian Conference of Health

Economists, Adelaide, 2-3 October 2008.

Tanton, R, ‘Running on empty’, Anti-Poverty

Week Conference, Launceston,

14 October 2008. (P161)

PROFESSIONAL JOURNALS

Abello, A., Lymer, S, Brown, L, Harding, A, &

Phillips, B, (2008) Enhancing the Australian

national health survey data for use in a

microsimulation model of pharmaceutical drug

usage and cost, Journal of Artifi cial Sciences

and Social Simulation, 11(32). (JA50)

Daly, A, McNamara, J, Tanton, R, Harding,

A, & Yap, M, (2008) Indicators of risk of

social exclusion for children in Australian

households: an analysis by state and age

group, Australasian Journal of Regional

Studies, 14(2). (JA53)

Harding, A, & Percival, R, (2008) The

Australian child support reforms: A case study

of the use of microsimulation modelling in

the policy development process, Australian

Journal of Public Administration, 67(1). (JA49)

Lymer, S, Brown, L, Yap, M, & Harding, A,

(2008) 2001 Regional disability estimates for

New South Wales, Australia, using spatial

microsimulation, Applied Spatial Analysis and

Policy, 1(2), 99-116. (JA54)

NATSEM NEWS 9

HEADARECENT PAPERS AND PRESENTATIONS

Nepal, B, Ranmuthugala, G, Brown, L, &

Budge, M, (2008) Modelling costs of

dementia in Australia: evidence, gaps, and

needs, Australian Health Review,

32(3), 479-487. (JA51)

BOOKS/BOOK CHAPTERS

Harding, A., Payne, A, & Vu, QN, ‘Consumers

in 2020, in Newton, P, (ed.), Transitions:

Pathways Towards Sustainable Urban

Development in Australia, CSIRO Publishing,

Melbourne, 2008. (BC42)

Kelly, S, Australian Trends in Wealth Inequality:

Household Projections Using Microsimulation,

VDM Verlag, Germany, 2008, 212 pages, Size:

229x152 mm, ISBN: 9783639072563,

ISBN-10: 3639072561. (B3)

Rahman, A, Bayesian Predictive Inference for

Some Linear Models under Student-t Errors,

VDM Verlag, Saarbrücken, 2008. (B4)

WORKING PAPER SERIES

Kelly, S, & Keegan, M, Modelling Household

Savings and Wealth, Working Paper No. 9,

NATSEM, May 2008. (WP9)

Payne, A., Percival, R, & Harding, A, APPSIM

- Modelling Education, Working Paper No. 10,

NATSEM, June 2008. (WP10)

OTHER EXTERNAL PUBLICATIONS

Ranmuthugala, G, Brown, L, & Lidbury, B,

The Burden Of Disease Associated With

Respiratory Syncytial Virus In Australia, Online

Discussion Paper, NATSEM, July 2008. (DP64)

Vu, QN, Harding, A, Tanton, R, Nepal, B, &

Vidyattama, Y, Advance Australia fair?, AMP.

NATSM Income and Wealth Report 20, AMP,

Sydney, July 2008. (OP58)

Nepal, B, Brown, L, Ranmuthugala, G, &

Percival, R, ‘The Commonwealth Financial

Planning Women Carers in Financial Stress

Report’, Commonwealth Bank of Australia,

NATSEM research paper, October 2008.

(OP59)

Brown, L, Payne, A, Lymer, S, & Armstrong,

A, Distribution of expenditure on health goods

and services by Australian households,

National Health and Hospitals Reform

Commission discussion paper, NATSEM,

University of Canberra,

November 2008. (OP60)

OTHER PRESENTATIONS/SEMINARS

Harding, A, ‘Creating socio-economic

household data at the small area level: An

introduction to spatial microsimulation’,

Department of Geography Seminar Series,

University of California, Santa Barbara, USA,

12 May 2008.

Laurie, B, ‘The application of microsimulation

models to inform planning and resource

allocation for the provision of supports

for people with a disability’, Disability

Services Divisional Executive, DHS, Victoria,

28 May 2008.

Tanton, R, ‘Housing stress: How, where,

who and why’, ANU RSSS seminar, ANU,

Canberra, June 2008. (P134)

Brown, L, ‘New models for health policy

makers: Introduction and overview’, seminar

for the NHMRC project ‘Modelling the

Economics of the Australian Health Care

System for Policy Analysis’, NATSEM,

Canberra, 3 June 2008. (P133)

Rahman, A, ‘Methodologies, tools and

techniques in small area estimation: An

overview’, ARCRNSISS MTT forum workshop,

Newcastle, 5-6 June, 2008. (P142)

Rahman, A, ‘Policy makers want small area

housing statistics: How do we produce them?,

AHURI Postgraduate Symposium, Melbourne,

15-17 June 2008. (P143)

Harding, A, ‘Introduction to microsimulation’,

Understanding Income Tax, Social Security

and Family Payments Programs Course,

Professional Management Programs,

University of Canberra, 26 June 2008.

Cassells, R, ‘Microsimulation at NATSEM

Australia’, Rural Economy Research Centre,

Teagasc, Ireland, 4 July 2008. (P150)

Cassells, R, ‘The gender wage gap for

generation Y in Australia’, Geary Institute,

University College Dublin, 11 July 2008.

Miranti, R, & Cassells, R, ‘Social and

economic trends for the ACT and Australia’,

ACT Public Service ‘Take The Lead’,

Canberra, 3 & 17 September 2008. (P149)

Lymer, S, Brown, L, & Harding, A, ‘Small area

estimates of the need for care among the

aged population using the CAREMOD model’,

NATSEM Small Area Estimation Workshop,

Canberra, 19 September 2008. (P159)

Miranti, R, McNamara, J, Tanton, R, &

Harding, A, ‘Poverty at the local level: National

and small area poverty estimates by family

type for Australia in 2006’, NATSEM Small

Area Estimation Workshop,

19 September 2008. (P156)

ACCESSING NATSEM’S

PUBLICATIONS ONLINE

NATSEM’s publications can be accessed

at our website <www.natsem.com.au>.

It contains all of NATSEM’s published

reports and many of the presentations given

by staff at conferences and to government

and non-government organisations.

The numbers listed with the publications

above (e.g. OP54 or P120) can be used to

easily access publications online using the

search engine.

WANT TO KNOW THE LATEST?

Are you interested in keeping up to date on

such topics as:

> income inequality

> wealth

> poverty

> superannuation

> distributional impacts of government

services

> changes to the tax–transfer system

> the future shape of Australian society?

If so, join NATSEM’s free email listing

and receive automatic notifi cation of all

new NATSEM publications. To join,

email ‘subscribe’ to

hotline@natsem.canberra.edu.au.

10 NATSEM NEWS

NATSEM RESEARCH FINDINGS

LESS CHILDREN IN JOBLESS FAMILIES

In October 2008, Riyana Miranti presented

the fi ndings of research into children in

jobless families at the 37th annual Australian

Conference of Economists on the Gold Coast.

The research conducted collectively by Riyana

Miranti, Ann Harding, Vu Quoc Ngu, Justine

McNamara and Robert Tanton, compared the

number of children living in jobless families in

the decade between 1995–96 and 2005–06

at a national and between 2001 and 2006

at a spatial level. They found that between

1995–96 and 2005–06, the proportion of

dependent children living in jobless families in

Australia declined from 15.6 per cent to 13.8

per cent. Nationally, in 2005–06, around 1 in

every 7 children lived with jobless parents and

in single parent families, around 1 in every 2

children were living with a jobless parent.

The spatial analysis of children in jobless

families found that in three quarters of the

areas considered (1049 small local areas),

covering 80 per cent of all children–children

in jobless families fell between 2001–2006.

Over a quarter of children in jobless families

lived in areas where the risk fell by more than

4.1 percentage points between 2001–2006.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Num

ber

Chi

ldre

n in

Jo

ble

ss F

amili

es b

y S

tate

NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT Australia

2001

2006

The risk by capital city and balance of state

FIGURE 4

Figure 4 shows a rural/urban breakdown

of children in jobless families and the

changes between 2001 and 2006. It

illustrates that a greater proportion of

children in rural areas were more likely to

be living in jobless families than their capital

city counterparts. The highest proportion

of children in jobless families was in the

Northern Territory for both 2001 and

2006, with 35% and 32% (respectively)

of children living in jobless households for

those periods. The full conference paper

can be found on NATSEM’s website.

OLD, SINGLE AND POOR

Recent research from NATSEM highlights

the power behind linking a tax/transfer

microsimulation model (STINMOD) with a

spatial microsimulation model (SPATIALMSM).

This work was presented to the United

Nations University WIDER conference in

Helsinki in September.

The paper looked at the effect of increasing

the single age pension from 60 per cent to 66

per cent of the couple age pension (Figure 5).

The policy change was modeled in STINMOD,

and the research found that the change would

affect all 824,000 single age pensioners, and

the gain would be $28.90 per week. The

proportion of lone older people in poverty

(earning less than half the median equivalised

disposable income) would fall from 46.5 per

cent to 36.5 per cent, and it would cost the

Government an extra $1.3 billion to implement

this policy alone. The spatial analysis found

that below average decreases in poverty

tended to occur in capital cities, with rural

areas experiencing mixed results.

The analysis also found that 73.1 per cent of

lone older person households were female;

60 per cent lived in capital cities; 57 per cent

owned their house and 15 per cent were

renting; 64 per cent were aged 75 and over;

and 73 per cent received government benefi ts

as their main source of income.

The results are published in the paper ‘Old,

Single and Poor: Using Microsimulation and

Microdata to Analyse Poverty and the Impact

of Policy Change Among Older Australians’

by Robert Tanton, Yogi Vidyattama, Justine

McNamara, Quoc Ngu Vu and Ann Harding

and is available on the NATSEM website.

Estimated change in poverty rates from changing single age pension from 60 to 66 percent of couple pension, lone older persons, by SLA, 2008–09

FIGURE 5

Data source: SpatialMSM/08B applied to STINMOD/07.

NATSEM NEWS 11

NATSEM HOSTS TWO VISITING

RESEARCHERS

Dr Kimberley Edwards and Dr Mark Birkin

from the University of Leeds in the United

Kingdom visited NATSEM in September as

part of NATSEM’s visiting fellowship program.

Kim and Mark gave a presentation to all

NATSEM staff on the methods they use for

spatial microsimulation in the United

Kingdom, and the sorts of results they get

from their models.

One of the main reasons for their visit was to

speak at NATSEM’s Small Area Estimation

Workshop on Friday 19 September (see

page 7). Both Mark and Kim gave excellent

presentations, and wrapped up the workshop

with a summary of possible collaborations,

including an International Microsimulation

Association conference paper to be written by

Kim Edwards, Robert Tanton, Paul Williamson

and Yogi Vidyattama.

Another key output from their visit was

the sharing of code and experiences

on microsimulation models. This was a

particularly fruitful aspect of the visits, with

many NATSEM staff taking up the opportunity

to talk ‘one on one’ with Mark and Kim.

Dr Kimberley Edwards is a lecturer in

epidemiology at the University of Leeds in

the United Kingdom, based in the Cancer

Epidemiology Group of the School of

Medicine. Kim, who has a BSc in maths

from the University of Essex, spent 12 years

in corporate banking in London, before

undertaking a MMedSci in human nutrition

at the University of Sheffi eld (2004) and a

PhD entitled ‘Measuring the obesogenic

environment of childhood obesity’ at the

University of Leeds (2007), leading to her

current role.

Her research interests include epidemiology,

the geography of obesity and cancer,

geographical information systems, applied

spatial modelling, small area estimation and

spatial microsimulation modelling.

Current research projects include:

> longitudinal spatial analysis of obesity in

11 year olds in Leeds

> the relationship between fast food

outlet locations, consumption of that

food and obesity

> the association between the environment

and cancers associated with obesity

(e.g. endometrium)

> the association between travel time from

home to primary and secondary care

facilities and cancer treatment/survival

> optimisation of cancer treatment centres.

Dr Mark Birkin is a Senior Lecturer in the

School of Geography at the University of

Leeds. Previously he was Director of the

Institute for Interdisciplinary Informatics at the

University of Leeds (2001–05) and Managing

Director of GMAP Limited (1996–2001).

Mark has longstanding research interests in

geographical information systems, spatial

microsimulation, geodemographics, and

‘what if’ predictive modelling. He is currently

the principal investigator of MoSeS, a r

esearch node of the UK e-social science

programme (www.ncess.ac.uk). MoSeS

aims to construct a dynamic individual-level

simulation of UK cities and regions into the

medium-term future.

Mark is the co-editor of Applied Spatial

Analysis and Policy, and a member of the

editorial board of Transactions in GIS.

2009 VISITING

FELLOWSHIP APPLICATIONS

NATSEM is offering two visiting fellowships

a year to international academics and

professionals keen to further their research in

the fi eld of microsimulation. Each fellowship

is valued at up to $10,500. For further details,

please go to http://www.canberra.edu.au/

centres/natsem/about/visiting-fellowships.

2008 Visiting Fellow Mark Birkin presenting at the Small Area Estimation Workshop in September.

NATSEM UPDATE

12 NATSEM NEWS

HEADA

Congratulations go to Lucie Marshall, winner for the April–June quarter,

and to Justine McNamara, winner for the July–September quarter.

EMPLOYEE OF THE QUARTER

ABOUTNATSEM

The National Centre for Social and Economic

Modelling, an affi liated research centre of the

University of Canberra, has an international

reputation as a centre of excellence for

analysing microdata and constructing

microsimulation models. Its work is funded

through research grants and consultancy

income. For further information, log onto

NATSEM’s website <www.natsem.com.au>.

NATSEM aims to be a key contributor to

social and economic policy debate and

analysis in Australia, by developing models of

the highest quality, undertaking independent

and impartial research, and supplying valued

consultancy services.

In a large proportion of NATSEM’s research,

analysis typically begins by looking at either

the characteristics or the impact of a

policy change on an individual household,

building up to the bigger picture by looking

at many individual cases through the use of

large datasets.

NATSEM’S EXECUTIVE

Ann Harding

Director

(02) 6201 2780

Jeannie McLellan

Deputy Director

(02) 6201 2780

Other staff

A full listing of NATSEM staff, their contact

details and profi les are available on

NATSEM’s website:

www.natsem.canberra.edu.au

TO CONTACT NATSEM

Phone: (+61 2) 6201 2780

Fax: (+61 2) 6201 2751

Email: hotline@natsem.canberra.edu.au

Post: University of Canberra ACT 2601

Australia

Visit: 170 Haydon Drive Bruce ACT 2617

Australian Government

Higher Education (CRICOS)

Registered Provider number: #00212K

NATSEM SEMINAR SERIES

Dr Phillip Clarke, School of Public Health,

University of Sydney, ‘Using utilities derived

from the EQ-5D as predictors of outcomes

in patients with type 2 diabetes’,

22 May 2008. (P122)

NATSEM Special Seminar presentations

related to the project ‘Modelling the

economics of the Australian health care

system for policy analysis’, funded by the

National Health and Medical Research

Council, 3 June 2008. (P128, P129, P130,

P131, P133)

Dr Lixin Cai, Senior Research Fellow,

Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and

Social Research, University of Melbourne,

‘Effects of health on wages of Australian men’,

19 June 2008. (P126)

Dr Carol Jagger, Professor of Epidemiology,

University of Leicester, United Kingdom, ‘How

will changing disease patterns affect the future

burden of disability at older ages?’, 15 July

2008. (P137)

Linping Xiong, PhD candidate at NATSEM,

‘Modelling medical insurance reform in China

and its infl uence on socio-economic status of

urban employees and residents’,

5 August 2008. (P144)

Dr Peng Yu, Senior research analyst, Research

and Analysis Branch, Australian Department

of Families, Housing, Community Services and

Indigenous Affairs, ‘Parental income support

receipt and child mortality: a close look with

a cohort of Australian children’, 9 September

2008. (P148)

Dr Peter Davis, Professor of Sociology,

and Director, Social Statistics Research

Group COMPASS, University of Auckland,

New Zealand, ‘Primary care in an ageing

society—building a micro-simulation model’,

14 October 2008.

NATSEM STAFF MEMBER RECEIVES PHD

Congratulations to Riyana (Mira) Miranti on

being awarded her PhD in economics from the

Australian National University in July 2008. Her

thesis was titled ‘The determinants of regional

poverty in Indonesia 1984–2002’.

LONG-TERM SERVICE AWARDS

Two of NATSEM’s staff were recognised at the

University of Canberra’s 40th anniversary staff

awards ceremony. Ann Harding (Director) and

Richard Percival (Principal Research Fellow)

received the Vice-Chancellor’s award for

15 years service and were thanked for their

tremendous contributions to NATSEM and the

University of Canberra.

NATSEM UPDATE