2

Natural disasters are extreme geophysical events,

biological processes and widespread

technological accidents

Danger may affect:

People Properties Environment

3

Major natural disasters and anthropogenic accidents are:

Car accidents

Accidents with chemical

compounds

Hunger

Cyclones, hurricanes,

typhoons, storms

Tsunami

Epidemics

Insect invasions

Extreme cold or heat

periods

Avalanches and landslides

Displacement or

movement of people

Flooding

Public unrest

Drought

Fires

Volcanic eruptions

Earthquakes

4

According to the probability of death cases

Damage by natural disasters (1980 - 2008)

Number of

disasters Number of

dead Number of

victims Economic losses,

billions EUR

Drought 410 558 565 1 551 455 112 54, 745

Storms 1 211 402 911 496 639 560 379,460

Earthquakes 706 385 630 136 333 515 249, 771

Tsunami 18 229 551 2 481 879 7,441

Floods 2 887 195 843 2 809 481 489 282,779

Epidemics 1 039 183 278 19 411 394 ?

Heat waves 126 89 889 4 614 411 22,261

Vulcano eruptions 140 25 197 4 080 791 2,042

Landslides 366 20 008 7 031 523 0,004

Tornado 182 4 780 12 710 204 22, 417

Avalanches 73 3 532 69 637 0,626

Fires 294 1 666 5 766 092 30, 453

Invasions of insects 75 0 2 200 0,164

6

Top 10 countries by number of reported events in 2011

7

The number of reported natural disasters in 2012 (357) showed an increase of 2.3% compared to 2011’s number(349). Less people were killed by disasters in 2012 (9,655) compared to 2011 (31,331) and to the 2002-2011 annual average (106 816). This number of people reported killed is also the lowest since 2009, when 10,885 people were reported killed and is far below the peaks of 2010 (297,598), the year of Haiti’s earthquake, 2004 (241,698) year of the Indian Ocean tsunami and 2008 (235,293) when cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar. The number of reported victims in 2012 (124.5million) was the lowest since 2006,when 147.4million victims were registered, and 53.5% below the decade’s annual average of 267.9 million victims. The estimated economic losses from natural disasters in 2012 (US$ 157.3billion) were 9.7% above the damages annual average for years 2002-2011. Damages in 2012 were the fifth highest since 2002, but far below 2011 (2012 US$ 356.6 billion), year of the tsunami in Japan and the large flood in Thailand and 2005 (2012 US$ 253.4 billion), year of the hurricane Katrina. Compared to 2011, the higher number of reported natural disasters in 2012 was mainly due to a greater number of climatological disasters and extreme winter conditions and cold waves in Eastern, Southern and Western countries in Europe and some countries in Central and Southern Asia. The lower number of victims in 2012, compared to 2011, is observed for all disasters types except for tropical cyclones whose number of victims knew an increase of almost 20%. The drop in the reported number of people killed by natural disasters in 2012, compared to the 2011 is mostly explained by a lower number of deaths from geophysical, hydrological and meteorological disasters. The increase in damages in 2012 is mostly attributable to tropical storms and droughts. Three disasters, the hurricane Sandy in the United States (US$ 50 billion), the drought in South-Western and Mid-Western regions of the United States (US$ 20 billion) and the two earthquakes in Ferrare region in Italy (US$ 15.8 billion) accounted for 54% of all damages. Disaster trends are greatly influenced by single, high-impacts events.

How different was 2012 ?

8

Natural disaster impacts by disaster sub-group:

2012 versus 2002-2011annual average

9

Percent share of reported economic damages

by disaster sub-group and continent in 2012

10

The number of reported disasters in Europe (65) was above the annual average disaster occurrence from 2002 to 2011(56). This is largely due to cold waves and extreme winter conditions which affected most European countries in the beginning of the year. The number of such climatological disasters (45) is almost three times superior to its annual average for years 2002-2011 (17).

Inversely, 2012 shows a strong decrease in the number of hydrological disasters (16), compared to an annual average of 23. Such decrease is still more pronounced for meteorological disasters: only one was reported in 2012 –the lowest number ever reported since years 1990 -compared to an annual average of 14 in years 2002-2011.Therefore, compared to the previous decade, 2012 appears, in Europe, as an atypical year, with disasters occurring in proportions distinctly different from those of previous years.

In 2012, the decrease in the number of victims (0.58 million) compared to their 2002-2011 annual average (0.66 million) is largely explained by the decrease of their number in meteorological disasters (-99.7% in 2012 compared to the 2002-2011 annual average) and in hydrological disasters (-62.2%). In contrast, compared to annual average of the years 2002-2011, the number of victims of geophysical disasters increased of 76.6% and of climatological disasters of 68.2%. Two earthquakes in Emilia-Romagna and in the Ferrare region made 14,367 and 11,057 victims, respectively. Extreme winter conditions made 230,005 victims in Albania and 18,243 in Serbia. Cold waves made 87,612 victims in Ukraine, 70,010 in Serbia and 10,351 in Bosnia-Hercegovenia. These five climatological disasters account for 71.7% of the total of victims of disasters in Europe.

Whereas per year on average from 2002to 2011,hydrological disasters took the largest share of total disaster victims in Europe (41.5%), followed by climatological (40.3%), meteorological (16.0%) and geophysical (2.2%) disasters, in 2012the picture is different. Climatological disasters took the largest share (77.6%) and hydrological disasters took a share of 18.0%, only followed by geophysical disasters with 4.4% and meteorolological disasters with 0.1%.

Damages from natural disasters in Europe in 2012 (US$ 24.2 billion) were the highest of the decade, more than two times the annual average damages for 2002-2011 (US$ 11.7billion), largely explained by the cost associated with the Ferrare region earthquake in Italia (US$ 15.8 billion)which is the highest cost ever reported in Europe for a geophysical disaster since the year 1990 and is thirty times higher than the 2002-2011 annual damages average for such disasters.

The costs associated with the other Italian earthquake are, actually, not reported. Damages from climatological disasters (US$ 4.2 billion) are 1.5 higher than the 2002-2011 annual damages average for these disasters and are explained by damages from three droughts in Ukraine (US$ 1.7 billion), Italia (US$ 1.2 billion) and Russia (US$ 1.1 billion). Damages from hydrological disasters (US$ 4.2 billion) are close to their 2002-2011 annual average (US$ 4.7 billion) and are largely explained by four floods in the United Kingdom which cost a total of US$ 2.9 billion or 69% of all damages caused by hydrological disasters.

The damage arising from the only meteorological disaster reported in Europe in 2012 is directly attributable to a tornado which occurred in Poland and cost US$ 0.006 billion.

Europe, 2012

11

Natural disasters, the annual average economic loss due to natural disasters, 1980-2008

12

In subsequent decades, the increase of the global temperature will cause significant

climate changes that

will be bigger and stronger than ever in the past 10 000 years

The hardest will suffer those countries which existence is highly dependent on intensive use of

natural resources

13

World population in 2011 exceeded 7 billion people, mainly due to the population

growth in developing countries

Urbanization - migration of population from rural to urban areas, caused by depletion

of agricultural conditions and due to global economic forces, resulted with excessive growth

of urban population

14

Media aware

Dead

Injuries

Homeless

Disrupted

Tax payers

Inconvenienced

Aid donors

Region

Place of disaster

Country

World

Impact of natural disasters affect a wide range of persons not only direct victims in the disaster area

15

Environmental risk studies become more

complex, but also narrower and more detailed in some subsectors

Natural scientists are focused

more on the natural

processes, the nature of

developments in the mechanism and frequency

Social sciences are looking for

answers exploring public

reaction and behaviours in

critical circumstances

But decision-makers need real

recommendations for solving a

problem rather than just a theoretical

discussion

?

16

Even if a considerable damage is caused to property or the

environment, direct danger to people lives is

perceived as the most dangerous effect

People's vulnerability and sensitivity is often caused by a lack of emergency management

17

Natural and anthropogenic accidents may be

classified by the inducing factors:

Atmospheric factors

Hydrologic factors

Geological factors

Biological factors

Technological factors

Social violence

Complicated danger factors

18

Tangible effects are those for which it is possible to estimate losses in monetary

terms, such as the damaged property to restore the necessary resources

Undetectable effects – actual effects, but impossible to determine in monetary

expression:

loss of life can be detectable medically and legally, but economical or financial loss

value calculation is very complex

Direct effects are effects

that appear immediately after the disaster

Indirect effects appear later and

sometimes can be difficult to identify and link up with a disaster

Natural disasters can cause direct

and indirect effects:

19

Natural disasters recurrence time is the average

time between two following natural disasters

Most natural hazards can be measured by some physical parameters

within a specific scale

20

The most dangerous places are around the tectonic fractures - usually in high mountains or on coastal areas

About the half of the world's population is living in 60 km

coastal area near the river deltas or at the seaside

About 25% of the world population are exposed to natural

disasters, the majority of them live in developing countries

21

Sensitivity is a critical factor, that can be

increased by people poverty, age, health and human physical abilities

Well equipped societies and families with access to

resources can more easily survive if natural disasters occur

Access to the information and social communication

networks also is very important

22

Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur

mainly around the borders of the

lithosphere plates

Lithosphere plates are from 6 km to 200 km thick, solid Earth's outer shell that consists of different sized boards, which are:

In some places moving away from each other – divergence

Other moving towards one another – convergence

Or slipping one beneath the other or one moving along the second

Convergence Divergence

23

San Andreas fault in California

25

Earthquake strength can be measured using the Richter scale:

earthquakes, power is expressed in terms of the size of the output

energy, which can be measured by seismograph amplitude ratio scale

For earthquake intensity determination Mercalli scale is used, with the

scores from I to XII determine the impact the earthquake has had on

people, buildings and the environment

Minor: up to magnitude 4

Little: magnitude 4-5

Harmful: magnitude 5-6

Destructive: magnitude 6-7 balles Strong: magnitude 7-8

Disruptive: more as magnitude 8

26

Earthquakes

primary effects are

associated with the

earth shake, and

vertical or horizontal

ground movements

This leads to a strong

impact on people and

structures

Secondary effects of

earthquakes are

associated with rock

mass movement,

such as rock falls and

landslides

Earthquakes are characterized by primary and secondary effects:

Tsunami

On December 26, 2004 India ocean earthquake (9.1 magnitude) with epicentre at

Sumatra, Indonesia aroused huge tsunami wave, which killed approximately 230 000

persons in 11 countries, mainly in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand.

Tsunami, India ocean, 26.12.2004.

29

30

Flooding is irregular water level rise at any time and

place, which occurs in floodplain and other areas

Due to the origin of nature there can be separated

floods and flooding:

Flood is a river water treatment

phase characterized by the seasonal

largest watering that occurs yearly

or seasonally, and usually at the floodplain areas

Flooding can be characterized by

intermittent (at any time and place)

and a sharp but temporary rise of

water level, which occurs during floodplain or other areas

Flooding or flood is usually associated with rivers, and

less with lakes or other water bodies

North Sea

October 11. - 12.,

1634.

32

Flood risk can also

be a result of

human economic activities

Extreme flood situations is often

associated with heavy rain, which

causes storms, or rapid melting of snow

In some cases flooding occur

when natural or man-made dams are broken

Earthquakes in the

ocean can cause catastrophic

floods, by releasing of massive tsunami waves

Threat of flooding:

Flooding in urban areas present more difficulties

because of natural ground surface is built with a water-

tight materials

33

Flooding primary physical effects

Secondary effects result in decrease of water quality

Flooding effects can be primary and

secondary:

However, flooding may also give beneficial effects on river ecosystems –

by groundwater recharge and increase of soil fertility by bringing fertile mud into soils

34

In Europe flooding occurs

mostly in central and southern

part and is caused mostly by

rainfalls and may affects about

1.5% of the population

However, 70% of the world

flooding occurs in Asia

Floods in Bangladesh

36

In flooding risk areas risk assessment is very important

therefore the flooding frequency should be detected over

a specified period

Flooding hazard mitigation can be implemented in various ways:

Betterments, creating of

channels, straightening of river beds etc.

Creating of wetlands, which

work as water sponges during flooding

Flooding prevention barriers

helps to keep and store a certain

volume of flooding waters to

dissipate later steadily

Building of permanent or

temporary embankments

along the river banks certain in places

37

Territory of Latvia is divided into four river basin

management areas - Venta, Lielupe, Daugava and Gauja

38

Daugava River flood is seasonal, mainly formed in the spring, when

snow melts, rivers are rising water levels and ice jams.

Strong wind affects the water flow from the Gulf of Riga - water can be

blown into the Daugava River, raising the water level and threatening the city of Riga.

39

Biological factors or agents, which can lead to disasters:

Different nature of the diseases

and epidemics or pandemics

Undesirable, harmful or noxious

plant and animal invasions

Insect invasion with its

consequences on people,

environment and agriculture

Predatory animal attacks

Fish, crustaceans and molluscs

pollution

Forest fires

Bacteria Viruses Fungi Protozoan

Algae Plants Insects Animals

Biological agents can cause:

40

Epidemic expands

when in the

population appears

more and more new

cases of certain

disease in a short period of time

If an epidemic is covering

very large areas, it is called a pandemic

Simple diseases

that are a little

variable but rather

in a small scale,

can be called as endemic

Infectious diseases are characterized by several specific terms:

Nowadays, the world is concerned

about the wide spread of such

diseases as malaria,

tuberculosis, influenza strains

Malaria

41

Anopheles albimanus mosquito

feeding on a human arm

An estimated 655,000 people died from malaria in

2010, a decrease from the 781,000 who died in 2009,

according to the World Health organisation’s 2011

World Malaria Report, accounting for 2.23% of

deaths worldwide.

However, a 2012 meta-study from the University of

Washington and University of Queensland

estimates that malaria deaths are significantly

higher - the study estimates that 1,238,000 people

died from malaria in 2010.

42

Fire is the uncontrolled spread of fire which may

occur in populated areas or in natural areas

Characteristic parameters of fires are:

Distribution speed

Quantity of material burning

Topography

Geographic location

Cause of the outbreak

Weather conditions

43

Adapting occur after fires

including the appearance of

plant physical protection from

heat and increased growth

after the fires

Fires cause considerable

damage to people as well

as for property and material assets

Fires can be characterized by both, negative and positive effects:

Fires sometimes give the benefits,

especially for some species in areas

where the conditions for growth and

proliferation can only occur due to fires

44

Natural causes of fires are:

Large fires can affect both, climate and weather, they

create a regional and even global pollution, fires also

release greenhouse gas emissions

However, many fires occur from human inattention

(dropped cigarette, spark from engine) or from

deliberate abuse

Lightning

Volcanic eruptions

Sparks rock spark

Spontaneous ignition

Smoldering of underground coal or peat layers

45

An important element is the rapid forest fire detection

that can be realized by observation, as follows:

Satellite and aeral monitoring allows to

obtain information, as well as provide insight

into the events of a very broad and even low-risk areas

Forest observations from towers

equipped with surveillance equipment and communication systems

Observations from space

46

Heat periods are long periods of hot weather which expression is dependent on site-specific climatic conditions

Strong heat periods which are very

rare and can lead to:

Power supply disruption

from the increased air conditioning use

Catastrophic

damage to

agricultural crops

Death of thousands

of people from

hyperthermia or overheating

47

In summer of 2003, over the western Europe was spread a

stable anticyclone and temperature contributed to the increase of 20-30% above average

48

Drought can cause the following effects:

Massive people migration

Famine, poverty and diseases

Decline in electricity production,

Drastically reduce crop yields

and livestock survival

Sand and dust storms, causing

desertification, soil erosion

Damage to both terrestrial and

aquatic ecosystems and species

Social unrest and even lead to

war for natural resources, food

and water

49

1973

2001

1997 1987

Lake Chad in Africa from 1965 has been reduced

for 95%

50

Storms occur when rapidly rising or falling atmospheric

pressure areas are crossed by large cyclone or tornado, as

well during a local or frontal a lightning storms

Storm is a very strong wind for which the cumulative

speed over 10 minutes is at least 24 m/s and gusts can

reach up to 100 m/s (360 km/h)

51

Tornado is a devastating and rapidly tapered atmospheric

vortex with the rain and the storm, which usually occurs

when a cool, dry air mass meet the warm, moist air mass,

forcing the warm air to rise to the top suddenly

Hurricane reminds huge gyratory plate

with a diameter can reach up to 500 km,

but in rare cases up to 1000 km

Hurricanes never ! occur over land, just over the

sea or ocean in tropical zone, where

temperatures in the upper layers is at least +27 °C

52

TORNADO

* Character Wind speed; km/h * Character Wind speed; km/h

Tropical

depression 0–62 3. category 178–209

Tropiskā vētra 63–117 4. category 210–249

1. category 119–153 5. category ≥250

2. category 154–177 Have not

information Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale

Hurricane “Katrina” in 2005, USA

54

During the storms, strong air mass collisions cause raindrops

and hail grain collisions in the clouds, creating an electrical

charge, resulting in huge fires spark – lightning

From the enormous heat that is

released as a result of lightning,

nearby air rapidly expands

causing thunder

Most typical type of lightning - lines

that spark discharges in the branches,

whose length is usually 2-3 km