Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters for a Safer Region Yoshio Kajitani Professor, Faculty of Engineering and Design, Program of Disaster and Crisis Management Background Economic Losses from 1998 to 2017 due to natural disasters (stock losses) were estimated as 300 trillion dollars (U.N.), doubled from the losses in previous 20 years. However, this estimate excludes flow losses (e.g. income, GDP). 102.4 103.5 69.8 70.4 86.3 93.7 92.8 95 97 96 95.9 98.5 102 102.6 87.5 89.5 94.4 97.8 99.2 100.9 99.7 101.8 99.3 101.3 Index and Industrial Production Severely Damaged Area Outside the Severely Damaged Area Economic Losses (stock losses) from 1998 to 2017 Impacts on industrial production after the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (a part of flow losses) Model ・(modeling) damages To infrastructures and Industrial facilities ・Impacts of Infrastructure damages To industrial activities ・Interregional and Interindustry impacts (general equilibrium model for disaster conditions ) (Cited from Earthquake Spectra, 2009 Economic Systems Research, 2014,2018) Applicability (validation of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake) ・the estimates well agree with the observation ⇒Risk assessment for other Natural disasters, cost-benefit analysis is a Promising application. Production Capacity Losses (supply shock) Hazard (Ground motion, Tsunami) Interregional and intersectoral impacts (incl. supply-chain damages) Time Disaster Production Capacity Facility Damage Facility Damage +Recovery +Lifeline Impact Facility Damage+Recovery Facility Damage+ Lifeline Impact Firms Household Export Labor Market Goods Market Import Region A (Damaged Region) Goods Market Household Firms Region B Region C ．．．． Exports Imports (Transportation Cost) input

Natural Disasters for a Safer Region 102.4 102 102.6 103.5

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Page 1: Natural Disasters for a Safer Region 102.4 102 102.6 103.5

Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts ofNatural Disasters for a Safer RegionYoshio KajitaniProfessor, Faculty of Engineering and Design, Program of Disaster and Crisis Management

Background

Economic Losses from 1998 to 2017 due to natural disasters (stock losses) were estimated as300 trillion dollars (U.N.), doubled from the losses in previous 20 years. However, this estimate excludes flow losses (e.g. income, GDP).

102.4 103.5

69.8 70.4

86.3

93.7 92.895

97 96 95.998.5

102 102.6

87.589.5

94.497.8 99.2 100.9 99.7

101.899.3

101.3

Ind

and

Ind

ust

rial

Pro

ctio

Severely Damaged Area Outside the Severely Damaged Area

Economic Losses (stock losses) from 1998 to 2017Impacts on industrial production after the 2011Tohoku Earthquake (a part of flow losses)

Model

・(modeling) damagesTo infrastructures andIndustrial facilities・Impacts ofInfrastructure damagesTo industrial activities・Interregional and Interindustry impacts(general equilibrium model for disaster conditions )

(Cited fromEarthquakeSpectra, 2009Economic Systems Research,2014,2018)

Applicability(validation of the2011 Tohoku Earthquake)

・the estimates well agreewith the observation⇒Risk assessment for otherNatural disasters, cost-benefit analysis is a Promising application.

Production Capacity Losses(supply shock)

Hazard(Ground motion,

Tsunami)

Interregional and intersectoralimpacts (incl. supply-chain

damages)

TimeDisaster

Pro

ctio

n C