Navigating Political Currents to Achieve Middle East Peace

8/8/2019 Navigating Political Currents to Achieve Middle East Peace

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Navigating Political Currentsto Achieve Middle East PeaceAmerican Leadership Is Vital

David A. Halperin and Matthew Duss September 2010


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Navigating Political Currentsto Achieve Middle East PeaceAmerican Leadership Is Vital

David A. Halperin and Matthew Duss September 2010


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1 C Amica Pgss | navigaig Piica Cus Aciv Mi eas Pac

Introduction and summary

Te ae o he direc alks beween Israelis and Palesinians will be signicanly

deermined by he exen o which he leaders on each side are able and willing o

navigae he consrains o heir respecive domesic poliics. I is also clear ha

he renewed Israeli-Palesinian negoiaions will require susained and deermined

U.S. involvemen rom he onse even hough he Unied Saes is in he hick o

is own mid-erm elecions.

Israelis and Palesinians launched direc negoiaions on Sepember 1 aer morehan a year o U.S. eors o bring hem o he negoiaing able, including our

monhs o indirec alks aciliaed hrough U.S. mediaion.

Te long awaied re-launch o negoiaions has eecively raised he sakes or

Israelis and Palesinians, demanding ha ocials in Jerusalem and Ramallah make

he poliically dicul decisions ha hey have successully avoided unil now.

I also raises he sakes or Presiden Barack Obama, who has made i clear since

aking oce ha he considers reaching a negoiaed end o he Israeli-Palesinian

conic o be a key U.S. ineres.

We raveled o he region his summer while he Unied Saes worked o

move he paries rom indirec o direc alks. We me wih dozens o Israeli

and Palesinian ocials and analyss rom across he poliical specrum during

he rip, as well as U.S. ocials in he region. Neiher Israelis nor Palesinians

repored a he ime o have a clear undersanding o he U.S. sraegy or uli-

maely achieving a susainable resoluion o he wo-sae conic. Each appeared

o use he salemae preceding he launch o direc alks o srenghen heir polii-

cal sandings wih heir respecive publics. One ormer Israeli ocial old us a

he ime, Israelis and Palesinians are working hard o posiion hemselves orhe ailure o direc alks. Tey wan o show ha he oher side is o blame or

he ailure o he peace process.1


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Now ha he Obama adminisraion has launched direc alks, i will need o work

wih Prime Miniser Benjamin Neanyahu and Palesinian Auhoriy Presiden

Mahmoud Abbas in order o help hem overcome heir respecive poliical

consrains o advance he newly launched alks and build wha will hopeully be

a new and robus sraegy or achieving a lasing resoluion o he conic. Boh

leaders mus avoid esablishing a posiion aimed a shedding blame or he alkspoenial ailure and mus demonsrae poliical courage by ariculaing a vision

ha promoes he esablishmen o wo saes as a realizaion o heir respecive

naional aspiraions and ideals, raher han as a compromise o hem. Neanyahu

and Abbas will a he same ime be challenged o rise above he inuence o

rejecioniss who will undoubedly inensiy heir eors o hwar progress, as he

recen atacks in he Wes Bank indicae. Tis could be heir las chance o do so

given growing quesions abou he viabiliy o he wo-sae soluion.

Teir success will require inensive U.S. suppor and leadership o ensure ha he

dispue over setlemens does no disrup he alks a he sar, o engage he Arabsaes in conribuing o he poliical process, o encourage he leaders o rame a

wo-sae soluion as inegral o heir naional ideals, and o consisenly commu-

nicae Americas sraegic and vesed ineres in he success o his eor.


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Israel: Talks will test

Netanyahus coalition

Te re-launching o direc negoiaions provides he Unied Saes wih an oppor-

uniy o es wheher Israeli Prime Miniser Neanyahus acions will mach his

rheoric in suppor o a wo-sae soluion. Neanyahu had or monhs leading ino

he alks consisenly presened Israel as eager o begin negoiaions, while casing

he Palesinians as rejecioniss. Ye Neanyahu and his governmen have closely

wihheld any public exposure o key posiions Israel migh ake on he core issues

o be negoiaed.

Israelis balked when he Unied Saes called or a complee setlemen reeze las

summer, which would include Eas Jerusalem and he so-called naural growh

o exising setlemens. Israel ulimaely agreed in January o esablish a 10-monh

moraorium on consrucion in he Wes Bank setlemen, bu no in Eas

Jerusalem aer monhs o discussionand a imes ensionbeween he Unied

Saes and Israel. U.S. ocials a he ime hailed he moraorium as an unprec-

edened sep despie having requesed a ull reeze.

Israeli ocials ha we me wih during our rip poined o he moraorium as an

acion Israel has already aken in order o advance he peace process, providing

evidence o heir good inenions. One Israeli ocial deanly old us, we make

concessionslike he 10-monh setlemen reezeand ge nohing in reurn.2

o be sure, Israels moraorium on Wes Bank consrucion does no represen a

genuine concession, since Israel did commi o hal setlemens under he 2003

Quare Roadmap. Bu he issue o setlemens is one ha coninues o have re-

mendous resonance among he prime minisers coaliion and consiuency.

Te prospec ha Israel will resume setlemen consrucion ollowing he

moraoriums conclusion on Sepember 26 already hreaens o derail he alks.Bu Neanyahu has saed publicly ha he does no inend o renew he reeze.3

A recen poll showed ha only 20 percen o Israelis believe ha building in

he erriories should reeze compleely, wih 39 percen supporing building


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hroughou he Wes Bank and 36 percen supporing consrucion only wihin

he setlemen blocs.4 A poll his summer indicaed, meanwhile, ha he Israeli

public gives Prime Miniser Neanyahu high marks or his job perormance.5

Neanyahu and his governmen have also improved relaions wih he Obama

adminisraion. Te July 6 meeing beween Prime Miniser Neanyahu andPresiden Barack Obama, aer a year o ension over setlemen consrucion se

a new, posiive one in he relaionship beween he wo adminisraions. Te

Israelis we me wih lamened he ricion ha characerized he rs year o he

Obama adminisraion, bu hey lauded he recen warming in relaions as well as

securiy and inelligence cooperaionwhich one ocial described as Even be-

er han under [Presiden] Bush.

Prime Miniser Neanyahu will likely soon ace a momen o ruh, however,

where he has o reveal his posiions on a nal saus agreemen. Can he do so

while minimizing allou rom his ruling coaliion? Or will a new coaliion obe necessary? How Neanyahu addresses hese quesions while advancing he

renewed peace alks could deermine he ae o he negoiaions, as well as

Neanyahus relaionship wih he Obama adminisraion.

As one ocial old us, oday, here is a growing undersanding among Israelis

ha he saus quo wih he Palesinians does no mean a saus quo wih he

Unied Saes and he res o he world.6 Anoher old us ha, while he unda-

menals o he U.S.-Israel relaionship are srong, here is a divergence o ineress

on he Palesinian quesion Presiden Obama wans a [Palesinian] sae; Prime

Miniser Neanyahu wans a coaliion. In a choice beween a coaliion and a con-

ronaion wih he Unied Saes, [Neanyahu] will ake he coaliion.7

Progress is no impossible wih Neanyahu, bu ew Israeli analyss we spoke

o believe ha he Israeli governmen, as currenly consiued, can poliically

conclude and implemen a wo-sae soluion ha addresses he core, nal saus

issues o he conic, especially Jerusalem.

Neanyahus coaliion, which currenly has 74 seas in he 120-sea Knesse, is

dominaed by righ-wing paries: Neanyahus Likud (27 seas), Foreign MiniserAvigdor Liebermans Yisrael Beieinu (15 seas), and he Sephardic-religious Shas

pary (11 seas). Bu he coaliion also includes Deense Miniser Ehud Baraks

cener-le Labor pary, which has 13 seas ha Barak claims will be an inuenial

voice in suppor o peacemaking rom wihin he governmen.


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I is no clear, however, how long he Labor pary can remain in he coaliion.

One Labor miniser old us, I here is no progress by Sepember, here is no

reason or a liberal Zionis pary o be in his curren governmen.8 Ehud Barak

is reporedly relucan o leave he governmen, however, believing ha Labors

paricipaion is criical o he peace process and ha his role as deense miniser

is paricularly signican as concerns regarding Irans nuclear ambiions inensiy.His coninued presence in he governmen could also serve as a hindrance o new

Wes Bank setlemen consrucion, which he deense miniser in heory mus

approvehough setlers have already pledged o overcome such an obsacle. Bu

Barak may have no choice bu o leave he coaliion as he is aced wih growing

opposiion rom groups wihin his pary ha view him as a g lea or he righ-

wing governmen, especially i he alks break down.

Former Foreign Miniser zipi Livni and he Kadima pary (28 seas) meanwhile

remain ouside o he governmen as he opposiion, arguing ha he curren

Neanyahu governmen is no serious abou achieving and implemening a wo-sae soluion.

As one analys pu i, he prospec o Livni coming ino he coaliion has

become [Baraks] lieline. Ta is, i Kadima were o replace Yisrael Beieinu, or

example, he governmen would be ransormed rom a righ-leaning coaliion

skepical o he peace alks o a solidly cenris one espousing srong suppor or

he wo-sae soluion.

Kadima has wo cenral demands o ener he coaliion: a prominen role in he

negoiaing process, and an undersanding o Neanyahus endgame or he con-

ic. Neanyahu has poinedly reused o provide eiher. One Kadima ocial old

us, Wihou a reshufe o he coaliion i is no possible o go orward in a serious

way. o be a leader, you have o be willing o ake risks. [Neanyahu] has o pu

ou a vision, oherwise we will oppose himhas poliics.9

Te direc alks may orce Neanyahu o ake such risks i he wans o mainain his

curren governmen wihou being orced o rely solely on an exreme righwing

coaliion and risk losing his appeal o he cener. Neanyahu will have no one le

ha suppors he wo-sae soluionbeyond elemens o his Likud pary, whichis isel racuredi Labor leaves and Kadima reuses o join. Some analyss posi

ha Foreign Miniser Avigdor Lieberman views he prospec o a Neanyahu

ailure in alks as a chance o poach seas rom he Likud and srenghen his own

posiion or uure elecions.


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A righ-wing dominaed coaliion ha is opposed o pursuing peace would also

likely ace renewed ension wih he Unied Saes a a ime when boh governmens

hope o srenghen heir relaionship oward curbing Irans nuclear ambiions.

Foreign Miniser Lieberman said in an inerview wih Israels Yedioth Ahronoth

newspaper on Sepember 6 ha he believes his job is o serve as a voice o opposi-ion rom wihin he governmen.10 He old he paper we will no resign or bring

down he governmen, regardless o wheher or no Israel renews he curren

setlemen reeze. Lieberman and ohers on he righ are willing o give Prime

Miniser Neanyahu ime in he alks, believing ha genuine movemen oward

a wo-sae soluion is unlikely beyond rheoric. Bu as Israeli columnis Shalom

Yerushalmi wroe inMaariv: Everyone [on he righ] can swallow heir saliva and

keep silen, because we have no ye sared o ake any real acion. Tere is no one

in he governmen who ruly hinks ha Neanyahu will dismanle hundreds o

setlemens in Judea and Samaria and pariion Jerusalem.11

Te conclusion o he setlemen moraorium provides he rs es or he

Neanyahu governmen. Renewing he reeze will already elici a harsh response

rom hose on he righ. As Danny Danon, he chairman o he setler umbrella

organizaion, he Yesha Council, oldMaariv newspaper on Sepember 12, I he

reeze coninues in any way, we promise o make every eor o gh agains he

Neanyahu governmen. I will be he beginning o he end or his governmen.12

Including Labor and Kadima in he Israeli coaliion may ulimaely be necessary o

generae real acion oward an agreemenand o conclude one. Bu Neanyahu

will no marginalize his curren coaliion parners easily. Tose who closely

observe Neanyahu believe ha we can gain more rom him wih an embrace han

a cold shoulder. One ormer ocial old us, I he Unied Saes ries o bend and

no break Neanyahus coaliion, i may nd he is more exible, as he easing o he

Gaza blockade suggess.13

Agains his backdrop, a majoriy o Israelis coninue o suppor a wo-sae solu-

ion (55 percen), bu remain deeply skepical abou he prospec o he negoia-

ions and abou Presiden Obama.14

Tis is he conex wihin which he Obama adminisraion mus work wih

Neanyahu: i mus sucienly advance negoiaions wih a largely righ-wing Israeli

governmen, creaing momenum oward an agreemen, which in urn may require

Neanyahu o bring Kadima ino he governmen in order o conclude he deal.


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10/22


The Palestinians: Abbas needs to

prove his strength in negotiations

Palesinian Auhoriy Presiden Mahmoud Abbas was a relucan paricipan in

he ceremony a he Sae Deparmen on Sepember 2 where Secreary o Sae

Hillary Clinon hosed a press conerence wih Israeli and Palesinian ocials o

ocially launch direc negoiaions.

Abbas does no hink Israel is serious abou a wo-sae soluion, parly because o

Israels coninuing reusal o honor is commimens on setlemens. Bu Abbas,

like Neanyahu, is loah o be depiced as a rejecionis o peace. Ta is why whileAbbas agreed o come o direc alks wihou a ull Israeli setlemen reeze; he has

no given up on he demand, hreaening o leave he alks i Israel does no exend

is moraorium on consrucion beyond he Sepember 26 deadline.

While sanding up o Israel and he Unied Saes is rarely an unpopular posiion

in he region, Abbas has aced even greaer inernal pressure o prove ha he is a

srong leader ha is able o deliver a sae o he Palesinians.

Te Palesinian leader old reporers ha, in opposing direc alks wih Israel

wihou receiving assurances on setlemen consrucion and a ramework or he

negoiaions, I am under a kind o pressure I haven been hrough all my lie. 15

A leaked inernal Palesinian memo conrmed his senimen, saing, Going

o direc alks while he Israeli governmen reuses o sop setlemen aciviies

and reuses o coninue alks where hey le o in December 2008 would be like

poliical suicide.16

Abbass iniial resisance o direc alks wihou a ull setlemen reeze was a

shrewd poliical move as much as i was a acical one in advance o negoiaions.

His insisence since agreeing o ener direc alks ha Israel coninue is setle-men reeze in he Wes Bank in order or he alks o coninue beyond he reezes

Sepember 26 deadline also represens an eecive poliical posure.


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A poll aken aer he launch o direc alks in Washingon indicaes ha 57

percen o Palesinians believe he proximiy alks did no achieve any progress

in he peace process.17 Bu he same poll shows ha 64 percen o Palesinians

would suppor direc negoiaions wih he condiions o a setlemen reeze and

inernaional guaranees.

Ye Abbass own Faah acion remains splinered, ueling public skepicism abou

he alks. Abbas posponed municipal elecions his pas July due o pary rag-

menaion in a number o disrics despie eors a a conerence las summer in

Behlehem o uniy Faah around a pary plaorm. A similar lack o pary discipline

caused various Faah-aliaed candidaes o run agains one anoher in January

2006, spliting voes and enabling Hamas o win a majoriy o he seas in he

Palesinian Legislaive Council, despie only winning 44 percen o he voe com-

pared o a combined 56 percen or Faah and oher naional-secularis paries.

An American ocial old us during one o our meeings ha, Tere is somerevival o people [in Faah] recognizing he need or messaging and o esablish a

rue poliical pary, bu i Faah doesn ge is ac ogeher, ohers will. Ta o-

cial said ha unlike Faah, people know wha Hamas sands or and is vision.18

Te Palesinian leadership is wary o losing heir already enuous poliical man-

dae since presidenial elecions scheduled or January 2010 were also posponed,

providing uel or hose quesioning Abbass legiimacy. Te leadership claims ha

he greaes way o srenghen Abbas and Faah is o show evidence ha he peace

process can indeed succeed.

One Palesinian ocial in Ramallah, describing he challenge presened by

Hamas, old us ha, our opponens [Hamass] sraegy is o show ha negoia-

ions lead nowhere and hey claim ha heir sraegy will bring resuls. We don

wan o ake any seps ha will jusi y skepicism o he negoiaions process

We need o win he public here and in he region.19

Te Unied Saes encouraged he Arab Leagues ocial suppor o he alks in

an eor o provide Abbas wih addiional poliical cover. Some Israelis argue,

however, ha Abbass need o consul he Arab League urher demonsraes ha

he is oo weak o conclude a deal. Palesinian ocials mainain ha suppor o heArab League bolsers heir posiion and links he negoiaions o he Arab Peace

Iniiaive, which calls or he 22 members o he Arab league o normalize rela-

ions wih Israel upon a negoiaed agreemen o he Israeli-Palesinian conic.


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One Palesinian ocial old us in Ramallah, We wan hem engaged, no jus

o announce he [Arab Peace] Iniiaive and walk away. Tey need o share he

responsibiliy wih us sep by sep. Some say where is your poliical indepen-

dence? We say his is our choice o expand he eor.20

Arab suppor or Abbas will be paricularly imporan as Hamas and oher rejec-ioniss seek o disrup he poliical process, as he recen shooing atacks in he

Wes Bank indicae.

Agains his backdrop, Prime Miniser Salaam Fayyads eor o build he inra-

srucure o a Palesinian sae by nex year comes wih he impliciand some-

imes explicihrea ha he Palesinians plan o seek inernaional suppor or

a Unied Naions resoluion recognizing he esablishmen o a Palesinian sae

even in absence o a nal agreemen.21 Recen polls show ha he Palesinian

public suppors his eor, wih 65 percen o Palesinians reporing suppor or

seeking a UN Securiy Council resoluion o recognize a Palesinian sae, 60 per-cen supporing a unilaerally declared Palesinian sae, and 51 percen suppor-

ing a nonviolen resisance campaign.22 A majoriy o Palesinians a he same ime

believe ha Fayyads governmen has led o a decrease in corrupion (52 percen)

and an increase in poliical reorms (57 percen).23

Te Unied Saes suppors he Palesinian sae-building eors, bu no a uni-

laeral declaraion o saehood. Te hrea o unilaeral acion oen undermines

diplomacy and could ulimaely hreaen a genuine wo-sae arrangemen.

Te Unied Saes sraegy or advancing he peace process has unil now been

based on a botom-up, op-down approach combining economic and securiy

improvemens wih high-level negoiaions. Te botom-up approach has led o

improvemens in Palesinian economic and securiy condiions in he Wes Bank.

Bu many people we spoke o during our recen rip said ha hey believe he

Unied Saes has ailed o eecively communicae how direc alks will provide

a pah o saehood ha will complemen hese botom-up measures. Israelis and

Palesinians alike old us ha wihou a viable poliical process wih clear goals and

merics, hese improvemens only serve o make he occupaion more beauiul.24

I is doubul ha a unilaeral declaraion unsuppored by Israel or he Unied

Saes would subsanially change his dynamic. Wha would help is genuine prog-

ress in he poliical process alongside he sae-building eor. And ha requires

he Palesinians o say a he negoiaing able wih U.S. help.


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Te majoriy o Palesinians coninue o suppor a wo-sae soluion and will

suppor Presiden Abbas and Palesinian leaders i hey are able o achieve ibu

some will do all hey can o see ha hey ail, including acs o errorism. Genuine

progress in he poliical process will inensiy rejecioniss ervor, bu i will pro-

vide Abbas wih ools o urn agains such violence and show ha here is indeed a

peaceul pah o saehood.


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The United States: The Obama

administration must build confidence

Te Unied Saes mus conend wih is own domesic poliics as i works wih he

paries o navigae heirs. Few Israelis or Palesinians have high hopes or he alks.

Only 32 percen o Israelis believe alks wih he Palesinians will lead o peace. 25

wo-hirds o Palesinians do no believe ha he U.S. Presiden Barack Obama

is capable o esablishing a Palesinian sae.26 Americans are equally pessimisic.

Seveny-hree percen o Americans polled a he launch o direc alks indicaed

ha hey do no believe we can achieve Middle Eas peace in he period ahead. 27

Te Whie House engaged in wha some Israeli analyss humorously reerred o

as a love campaign ollowing he ri wih Israel on setlemen consrucion o

quell he ension wih Israelis and he American Jewish communiy. American

conservaives have meanwhile atemped o capialize on hose ensions as

poliical ools or he upcoming miderm congressional elecion, alhough his

eor is highly quesionable.

A recen Gallup poll indicaed ha American Jewish approval o Presiden

Obamas job perormance has dropped consisenly wih he naional average,

bu remains considerably high a 61 percen.28 Bu he Whie Houses olerance

or ension wih Israel and he Palesinians will be challenged as he congres-

sional elecion season inensies, paricularly wih he already wide expecaion

o conservaive gains. Candidaes are likely o ollow public opinion in showing

skepicism o he Obama adminisraions abiliy o succeed in he re-launched

peacemaking eors. Ye he Whie House does no have he luxury o puting he

peace process on hold unil aer he November elecion.

Wheher he Unied Saes can simulaneously maneuver hrough poliics in

he Middle Eas and a home could depend on how much i learned rom issetlemen dispue wih Israel one year ago. Te Obama adminisraion received

criicism las summer or appearing o ocus only on he setlemen dispue, and

has again aken re his year or allowing he same percepion o arise wih regard

o direc alks. Tere is concern ha, jus as he Obama adminisraion seemed


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unprepared o respond o Israels reusal o reeze setlemen consrucion, i also

does no have an eecive Plan B should he direc alks ge bogged down in he

absence o a renewal o Israels setlemen moraorium.

Te Obama adminisraions abiliy o couner hese percepions by eecively

communicaing is sraegy o Israel, he Palesinians, Americans, and he U.S.Congresssaring wih is approach regarding he end o he setlemen reeze on

Sepember 26could make he dierence in he success or ailure o direc alks.


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The two-state solution is

at a turning point

Te wo-sae soluion may depend on he Unied Saes abiliy o help Israel and

he Palesinians navigae pas hese obsacles. Bu here are alarming signs ha he

viabiliy o he wo-sae concepwhile sill suppored by he majoriy o Israelis

and Palesiniansis increasingly being quesioned on boh sides.

Some on he Israeli righ are becoming more vocal in suppor o a binaional sae.

Former Foreign Miniser Moshe Arens wroe in Haarez ha i is ime or Israel

o look a anoher opion: or Israel o apply is law o Judea and Samaria andgran ciizenship o 1.5 million Palesinians.24 Oher prominen gures share his

view, including he curren Speaker o he Knesse Likuds Reuven Rivlin, who

old reporers Is preerable or he Palesinians o become ciizens o he sae

han or us o divide he counry.29

Te growing Palesinian anipahy o he wo-sae soluion is equally serious.

One recen Palesinian poll indicaes ha Palesinians choose wo-saes (55

percen) over one-sae (27 percen) when presened a choice.30 Bu anoher poll

in June shows ha 52 percen oppose abandon[ing] he wo sae soluion and

demand[ing] he esablishmen o one sae or Palesinians and Israelis. 6 And a

hird poll aken jus prior o he launch o direc alks shows ha as much as 53

percen are willing o suppor, accep or consider he idea o one-join sae in which

Israelis and Palesinians are equal ciizens beween he Jordanian River and he

sea.31 In oher words, Palesinians are hesian o embrace a one-sae soluion, bu

hey are willing o enerain he idea, and some ocials are increasingly doing so.

One ocial old us ha, here are some on he Palesinian side who are emoion-

allyi no inellecuallyready o hrow in he owel on he wo-sae soluion.

Many o hese people are commited o Palesinian naionalism and recognizeha his means he end o i. Some o i is inended o creae a kind o bogeyman

eec in he even ha he peacemaking eors ail, bu some have a genuine con-

vicion ha his is jus no going o work.17 Anoher Palesinian ocial who has

long been supporive o he peace process old us ha, even a he highes levels

[Palesinian] poliicians are giving up on he wo-sae soluion, and ha he oo


17/22


was losing aih. Te mos imporan hing is my digniy, he old us. Give me an

Israeli passpor, Ill ake my digniy. I you wan he land, ake me wih you.32

An Israeli analys we me was even sarker, saying, In wo o hree years he

wo-sae soluion may remain he batle cry o he Palesinian naional move-

men, bu no longer be seen as a real poliical plaorm and agenda.33

Te analysalso prediced ha, I we don make an eor in he Obama adminisraion or

somehing subsanial, i will be oo lae. I we don lock-in Palesinian saehood

now, is over.

Te Unied Saes has succeeded in convincing Israel and he Palesinians o alk

aer more han a year o acive eors o bring boh sides o he negoiaing able.

Ye here are signican obsacles acing his renewed eor, and rejecioniss on

boh sides wield considerable power.


18/22


Recommendations: Sustained

engagement is critical

Overcoming he challenges o his eor will require he Unied Saes o aricu-

lae a vision o how o achieve a wo-sae soluion o he leadership and publics

on each side. Measures aken by boh sides should be viewed no as conces-

sions, bu as sraegic measures aken o realize he ulllmen o heir respecive

naional aspiraions. Te Whie House will need o mainain consisen, clear, and

ransparen communicaion o engender condence among Israelis, Palesinians,

and Americans, as well as debunk myhs abou he renewed peacemaking eor

ha rejecioniss will undoubedly pedal.

Te adminisraion has already made some progress in his regard. Repors ha

he paries will work on a ramework o he wo-sae soluion, Secreary o Sae

Hillary Clinons oureach o Israeli and Palesinian media, and boh sides rejec-

ion o violence a he onse o he alks are all welcome indicaions ha he pieces

may be coming ino place or a genuine eor a advancing he peace process.

Bu as Secreary Clinon saed a he conclusion o he launch ceremony in

Washingon, Now is ime o ge o work.

Dont let settlements derail talks

Addressing he Sepember 26 deadline o Israels setlemen moraorium is

clearly he mos pressing challenge o he alks. I is imporan ha he Unied

Saes coninue o publicly reer o he erms o he 2003 Quare Road Map,

which called or Israel o reeze all setlemen aciviy, consisen wih he 2001

Michell Repor. A useul way o saisy he poliical requiremens o boh sides

and jumpsar serious negoiaions could be o make a aci acknowledgmen o

he plan se-orh by Israels Miniser Dan Meridor, which calls or Israel o buildonly in he Wes Bank setlemen blocs ha i inends o keep and compensae he

res hrough land swaps. Te Meridor plan could be viable i i were o serve as a

poin o deparure or dening he exen o he setlemen blocs ha will remain

in Israel, which would require subsanive negoiaions regarding borders and,

ulimaely, Jerusalem.


19/22


Progress in he alks prior o he Sepember 26 deadline could provide Prime

Miniser Neanyahu wih he impeus o coninue he reeze and or Abbas o

remain a he negoiaing able, bu ensions will rise as he deadline looms. Te

issue should be addressed as early as possible so ha he reeze does no remain an

elephan siting a he negoiaing able. Repors ha Prime Miniser Neanyahu

has begun o acknowledge ha ull-scale building hroughou he Wes Bank willno coninue are a welcome sign.

Engage the Arab states

Secreary Clinons inclusion o Egyp and Jordan in he launch o direc alks

was an imporan gesure o he criical role each mus play in implemening any

agreemen. Egyp hosing he nex round o alks in Sharm-el-Sheikh is anoher

posiive sign. Te Unied Saes could uilize heir involvemen as co-chairs o he

Arab Leagues ollow-up commitee on he Arab Peace Iniiaive o more publiclyrecognize he signicance o he iniiaive.

Te Unied Saes atemps o gain goodwill gesures rom he Arab saesmos

noably Saudi Arabiaailed early in he adminisraion. Bu heir conribuions

will be criical going orward.

Presiden Obamas remark a he launch o direc alks on Sepember 1 ha A lo

o imes I hear rom hose who insis ha his is a op prioriy and ye do very litle

o acually suppor eors ha could bring abou a Palesinian sae was a hinly

disguised reerence o his poin. And Secreary Clinon echoed he remark a he

Sae Deparmen press conerence he nex day.

We should coninue o challenge he Arab saes o make helpul conribuions o

he process, and work o incorporae he Arab Peace Iniiaive ino he ramework

o he negoiaions, as well as encourage Prime Miniser Neanyahu o recognize

he signicance i represens.

King Abdullah o Jordans recen visi o Syria o brie Presiden Basher Assad on

he launch o direc alks is a welcome signal ha we migh be able o uilize Jordanas a condui o promoe he Israel-Syria rack.34 Teir join saemen ha he mee-

ing emphasized ha resolving he Palesinian- Israeli conic on he basis o he

wo-sae vision requires he regaining o all Arab righs in accordance wih ... he

Arab Peace Iniiaive, is a reminder o he poenial ha he iniiaive represens.


20/22


Frame two-state solution as a victory

Te alks began wih no precondiions, bu he conours o an agreemen are well

known. Previous experience shows ha hese alks can indeed advance quickly i boh

sides recognize he imporance o compromising on core issues or he sake o ullling

heir naional aspiraions. Recognizing ha each side mus ulimaely ake such mea-sures will be criical as he alks address issues such as Jerusalem, reugees, and borders.

Presiden Obama should encourage Prime Miniser Neanyahu and Presiden Abbas

o publicly ariculae a vision o a susainable wo-sae soluion as represening he

ulllmen o Jewish and Palesinian naional ideals, raher han as heir berayal. I is

unlikely ha he Israeli and Palesinian publics will be prepared in he absence o such

a vision o accep he compromises necessary o end he conic, or o have con-

dence ha a nal agreemen would represen he end o heir respecive claims.

Communicate Americas interests

Presiden Obama repeaed he o-heard phrase in launching direc alks ha, he

Unied Saes canno impose a soluion, and we canno wan i more han he paries

hemselves. Tis is rue. Bu achieving a wo-sae soluion is no only in he ineres o

Israelis and Palesiniansi is a key objecive o Americas oreign policy and naional

securiy agenda in he Middle Eas. Presiden Obama undersands his, which is why

he is spending considerable poliical capial in promoing an Israeli-Palesinian peace

agreemen amid a holy conesed congressional elecion season, concerns abou he

economy, and he end o comba operaions in Iraq.

Communicaing he imporance o succeeding on Arab-Israeli peace or U.S. ineress

will be criical boh o shore up suppor a home and send a message o he paries

ha he Whie House is commited o ackling he challenges ha lie ahead and suc-

ceeding where ohers have ailed.


21/22


About the authors

David A. Halperin is Assisan Direcor o Israel Policy Forum.

Matthew Duss is a Naional Securiy Edior a he Cener or American Progress.

Endnotes

1 Piva big wi Isai aays i Jusam, Ju 2010.

2 Piva big wi Isai cia i Jusam, Ju 2010.

3 Baak ravi a Avi Issacaf, nayau: exig S-m Fz Wi Caus Gvm Caps haaz, Juy 27,2010, avaiab a p://www.aaz.cm/pi-ii/ws/ayau-xig-sm-z-wi-caus-gvm--caps-1.304671.

4 P cuc by tnS /tsk pubis i Maaiv wspap,Spmb 8, 2010, p. B4.

5 Ju 7, 2010 Isai P o Ama Sip Baig: tp lirsus Pc Mi eas Ps, Ju 8, 2010, avaiab a p://sis.gg.cm/a/pcps.g/pcps/i--ws/ju-72010isaipamasipbaig.


7 Piva big wi Isai aays i t Aviv, Ju 2010.


9 Ibi.

10 Yuva Kai, libma: W W tpp Gvm, YiA, Spmb 6, 2010.

11 Sam Yusami, Impass, Maaiv, Spmb 6, 2010.

12 Amiai Aai, Ss nayau: Ciuai Fz WiMa a e Yu tm, Maaiv, Spmb 13, 2010.

13 Piva big wi m Isai cia i Jusam, Ju 2010.

14 Abbas rsiss Pus dic taks Wi Isa huiy daiy nws,Juy 29, 2010, avaiab a p://www.uiyaiyws.cm/.pp?=abbas-siss-pus--ic-aks-wi-isa-2010-07-29.

15 Kai laub, US Psss Abbas rsum dic Pac taks,Ya! nws, Juy 26, 2010, avaiab a p://ws.ya.cm/s/ap/20100726/ap___mi_a/m_isa_pasiias.

16 Pasiia C Picy a Suvy rsac, Ji Isai-Pas-iia P, Ju 2010 , Pss as, Ju 29, 2010, avaiab a p://www.pcps.g/suvy/ps/2010/p36ji.m.

17 Piva big wi Amica cia i Jusam, Ju 2010.

18 Piva big wi Pasiia cia i ramaa, Ju 2010.

19 Cispia Bam, Iic taks Wi Isa n Pgssig-Fayaa,rus, Juy 2, 2010, avaiab a p://i.us.cm/aic/iInI-ia-49824720100702.

20 Pasiia C Pubic opii, P n. 172 (2010), avaiaba p://www.pcp.ps/ps.m.

21 t Isa dmcacy Isiu, Pac Ix, Juy 2010 (2010), avai-ab a p://www.ii.g.i/rsacAPgams/pac_ix/dcums/%d7%99%d7%95%d7%9C%d7%99%202010/Pac%20Ix-Juy-as.p.

22 Cnn/opii rsac Cpai P, Pigp.cm, Spm-b 1-2, 2010, avaiab ap://www.pigp.cm/isa.m.

23 Fak nwp, Musims Giv obama higs Jb Appva;Mms, lws, Gaup, Augus 27,2010, avaiab a p://www.gaup.cm/p/142700/musims-giv-bama-igs-jb-appva-mms-ws.aspx.

24 Ms As, Is a pi?,Haaretz, Ju 2, 2010.

25 nam Siza, egam,Haaretz, Juy 15, 2010.

26 d. na Sai, t Mi eas Pac Pcss: oppuiy i Fac dspai (ramaa: Aab W rsac a dvp-m, 2010), Augus 28, 2010, avaiab ap://www.awa.g/ps/egis%20pa1%20pac%20Augus%202010.p.

27 dPA, Ja a Syia ca Isai wiawa m a Aab as,Haaretz, Spmb 8, 2010, avaiab a p://www.aaz.cm/ws/ipmacy-s/ja-a-syia-ca--isai-wiawa-m-a-aab-as-1.312585.

28 Fak nwp, Musims Giv obama higs Jb Appva; M-ms, lws.

29 nam Siza, egam.

30 Pasiia C Pubic opii, P n. 172.

31 d. na Sai, t Mi eas Pac Pcss: oppuiy i Fac dspai.

32 Piva big wi Pasiia cia i ramaa, Ju 2010.

33 Piva big wi Isai aays i Jusam, Ju 2010.

34 dPA, Ja a Syia ca Isai wiawa m a Aab as.
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