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11 MAKROEKONOMIJA OTVORENE PRIVREDE
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
3131MAKROEKONOMIJA OTVORENE PRIVREDE –
OSNOVNI KONCEPTI
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
MAKROEKONOMIJA OTVORENE PRIVREDE – OSNOVNI KONCEPTI
• OTVORENA I ZATVORENA PRIVREDA• Zatvorena privreda je ona koja nema razvijene
ekonomske odnose sa drugim zemljama• Nema izvoza uvoza niti kapitalnih transakcija
• Otvorena privreda je ona koja slobodno razmenjuje sa svim drugim zemljama sveta
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Koliko je otvorena Srbija – kako se meri otvorenost
IZVOZ I UVOZ U BRUTO DOMAĆEM PROIZVODU, 2006.
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Belgija Slovačka Mađarska Češka rep Bugarska Srbija
izvozuvoz
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
STVARANJE STRUKTURE
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Robni tokovi: izvoz,uvoz, neto izvoz
• Izvoz (X) čini robA i usluge koje se proizvode u zemlji i prodaju u inostranstvu
• Uvoz (Z) čini robA i usluge koje se proizvode u inostranstvu i prodaju u zemlji
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Srbija
Srbija i Crna Gora: izvoz, uvoz i spoljnotrgovinski bilans, 1965-2005.
-9-7-5-3-113579
111315
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
$ mlrd
uvoz
izvoz
spoljnotrg. deficit esourcegap
Srbija i Crna Gora: izvoz, uvoz i spoljnotrgovinski bilans, 1965-2005.
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
uvoz
izvoz
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Robni tokovi: izvoz,uvoz, neto izvoz
• Neto izvoz (NX) je vrednost izvoza minus vrednost uvoza
• Neto izvoz još nazivamo TRGOVINSKI ILI SPOLJNOTRGOVINSKI BILANS
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Robni tokovi: izvoz,uvoz, neto izvoz
• Trgovinski deficit je situacija u kojoj je neto izvoz (NX) negativan. • Uvoz > Izvoz
• Trgovinski višak – suficit je situacija u kojoj je neto izvoz (NX) pozitivan. • Uvoz < Izvoz
• Uravnotežena razmena nastaje kada je neto izvoz (NX) jednak nuli, dakle kada je robna razmena uravnotežena i izvoz jednak uvozu.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Robni tokovi: izvoz,uvoz, neto izvoz Robni tokovi: izvoz,uvoz, neto izvoz
• Faktori koji utiču na neto izvoz• Ukusi potrošača (ruske cipele!)• Domaće i inostrane cene• Devizni kursevi
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Robni tokovi: izvoz,uvoz, neto izvoz
• Faktori koji utiču na neto izvoz• Dohoci potrošača u zemlji i inostranstvu• Transportni troškovi• Spoljnotrgovinske politike – carine, kvote itd
Slika 1 The Internationalization of the U.S. Economy
Percentof GDP
0
5
10
15
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 19901985 20001995
Exports
Imports
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
NETO ODLIV KAPITALA
• Neto odliv kapitala je kupovina inostrane aktive od strane domaćih rezidenata minus kupovina domaće aktive od strane stranaca• Rezident Srbije kupuje akcije Tojote, a Rumun
kupuje akcije Apatinske pivare• Amerikanac kupupje akcije Tojote a Meksikanac
akcije Ford Motor corporation.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
NETO ODLIV KAPITALA
• Kada Srbin kupuje akcije Forda, Američke kompanije, to povećava neto odliv kapitala iz Srbije
• Kada Japanac kupuje obveznice srpske vlade, to smanjuje neto odliv kapitala iz Srbije
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
NETO ODLIV KAPITALA : Neto odliv kapitala
• Varijable koje utiču na neto odliv kapitala• Realna kamatna stopa na inostranu aktivu.• Realna kamatna stopa na domaću aktivu • Ekonomski i politički rizici držanja aktive u
inostranstvu.• Državne politike koje definišu strano vlasništvo nad
domaćom aktivom• TO JE MIKROEKONOMIJA -
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
http://www.doingbusiness.org/ExploreEconomies/Default.aspx?
economyid=206• Serbia• Region: Europe & Central Asia• Income category: Lower middle income• Population: 9,993,904• GNI per capita (US$): 3,280.00• Country laws: see our Law Library•• Ease of... 2006 rank 2005 rank Change in rank• Doing Business 68 95 +27• Starting a Business 60 43 -17• Dealing with Licenses 157 158 +1• Employing Workers 73 43 -30• Registering Property 110 104 -6• Getting Credit 33 96 +63• Protecting Investors 60 58 -2• Paying Taxes 64 65 +1• Trading Across Borders 51 142 +91• Enforcing Contracts 76 74 -2• Closing a Business 103 100 -3• Note: 2005 rankings have been recalculated to reflect changes to the 2006 methodology and the
addition of 20 new countries.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
JEDNAKOST NETO IZVOZA I NETO ODLIVA KAPITALA
• Neto izvoz (NX) i neto odliv kapitala (NCO) veoma su blisko povezani
• Za privredu u celinu oni moraju biti isti tako da je:
NCO = NX• Ovo važi jer svaka transakcija koja utiče na jednu
stranu mora da utiče i na drugu u istom iznosu
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Štednja, investicije i njihov odnos sa međunarodnim tokovima
• Neto izvoz je komponenta GDP:Y = C + I + G + NX
• Nacionalna štednja je dohodak koji preostane nakon što se obavi tekuća privatna potrošnja i tekuća javna potrošnja:
Y - C - G = I + NX
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Štednja, investicije i njihov odnos sa međunarodnim tokovima
• Nacionalna štednja (S) jednaka je Y - C - G te:S = I + NX
ili
Štednja Domaće investicije
Neto odliv kapitala= +
S I NCO= +
Slika 2 National Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign Investment
Percentof GDP
20
18
16
14
12
101960 1965 199519901985198019751970
(a) National Saving and Domestic Investment (as a percentage of GDP)
2000
Domestic investment
National saving
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
–4
–3
–2
–1
0
1
2
3
1960 1965 199519901985198019751970 2000
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
REALNI I NOMINALNI DEVIZNI KURS
• Dve najznačajnije inostrane cene su nominalni i realni devizni kurs.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Nominalni devizni kurs
• Nominalni devizni kurs izražavamo na dva načina:• Količina domaće valute po jedinici strane. • Količina strane valute po jedinici domaće. –
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Nominalni devizni kurs
• Ako je kurs evra 80• To je 80 dinara za evro• . To je 1/80 (0.0125) evra za dinar 1.25
evrocenti za dinar
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Nominalni devizni kurs
• Apresijacija je rast vrednosti domaće valute merene količinom strane valute koja se za nju može kupiti.
• Depresijacija je pad vrednosti domaće valute merene količinom strane valute koja se za nju može kupiti.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Nominalni devizni kurs
• Ako se za dinar može kupiti više strane valute došlo je do apresijacije dinara.• dok je kurs dinara bio 87, za 1 dinar se moglo kupiti 1.15
evrocenti. Sada je kurs dinar 80, te se za dinar kupuje 1.25 evrocenti
• Ako se može kupiti manje, došlo je do depresijacije dinara. Ovo je intuitivno jasno – dinar depresira, manje vredi, pa se za njega može kupiti manje deviza
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Realni devizni kurs
• Realni devizni kurs je odnos (rate, ratio) NIJE RACIO prema kome osoba može razmenjivati dobra i usluge jedne zemlje za dobra i usluge iz druge zemlje.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Realni devizni kurs
• Realni devizni kurs služi za poređenje cena domaćih i stranih dobara u domaćoj privredi.
• Iako je karton nemačkog piva duplo skuplji od kartona američkog priva, onda je realni devizni kurs 1/2 kartona nemačkog piva za karton američkog piva.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Realni devizni kurs
• Realni devizni kurs zavisi od nominalnog kursa i domaćih i inostranih cena
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Realni devizni kurs
• Realni devizni kurs JE KLJUČNA DETERMINANTA IZVOZA I UVOZA
• R. KURS=N. KURS*DOM/INOS. CENE
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Realni devizni kurs
• Depresijacija realnog deviznog kursa znači da su srpska dobra postala jeftinija u odnosu na robu u inostransvu
• Ovo podstiče potrošače, kako u zemlji, tako i u inostranstvu da kupuju srpsku robu (uključujući US Steel – ov čelik), a da manje robe kupuju iz inostranstva
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Realni devizni kurs
• Kao rezultat, srpski izvoz raste a uvoz pada, što sa obe strane deluje na promenu neto izvoza – na pad deficita ili na rast suficita
• Obratno, apresijacija dinara vodi padu neto izvoza Srbije
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Prva teorija određivanja deviznog kursa: Paritet kupovne moći – PPP -
PURCHASING-POWER PARITY• PPP purchasing-power parity je
najjednostavniji i najšire prihvaćeni koncept koji objašnjava devizni kurs jedne valute
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Osnovna logika pariteta kupovne moći
• Teorija pariteta kupovne moći je teorija prema kojoj bi trebalo da se sa jedinicom jedne valute u svim zemljama sveta može kupiti ista količina robe
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Logika PPP koncepta
• Prema PPP teoriji, jedna te ista roba u svim zemljama mora isto da košta
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Logika PPP koncepta
• Teorija pariteta kupovne moći bazira se na principu koji se zove zakon jedne cene• Prema zakonu jedne cene, jedna roba mora se
prodavati po istoj ceni na svim lokacijama• Primer – ulje u Srbiji i Mađarskoj, 1999.
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Logika PPP koncepta
• Ako bi zakon jedne cene prestao da važi, javila bi se neiskorišćena profitna margina
• Proces iskorišćenja razlike u ceni na različitim trišćtima naziva se ARBITRAŽOM
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Logika PPP koncepta
• Ako dođe do arbitraže, cene na dva tržišta će obavezno konvergirati
• Prema teoriji pariteta kupovne moći, valuta mora imati istu kupovnu moć u svim zemljama, što se realizuje kroz devizni kurs
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Implikacije PPP
• Ako je kupovna moć dolara uvek ista, onda se devizni kurs ne može menjati
• Nominalni kurs odražava različiti nivo cena -PAZI, NE INFLACIJU NEGO NIVO CENA- u dve zemlje
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Implikacije PPP
• Ako CB naštampa veliku količinu novca, novac će izgubiti vrednost kako u odnosu na domaću robu tako i u odnosu na druge valute
Slika 3 Money, Prices, and the nominalni devizni kurs During the German Hyperinflation
10,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000
100,000
1
.00001
.00000000011921 1922 1923 1924
Exchange rate
Money supply
Price level
1925
Indeksis(Jan. 1921 5 100)
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Ograničanja PPP teorije
• Mnoga dobra ne mogu se lako transportovati niti se njima može trgovati (pijaća voda, šišanje, spremanje stana)
• Kada se proizvode u različitim zemljama, razmenljiva dobra nisu uvek savršeni supstituti
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
KRITIKA BIG MAC-A
• Big Mac je - hamburger, ali je i popularni indeks za merenje valutne precenjenosti. Danas se mnogi, pa čak i njegovi tvorci ograđuju od njega...
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3232TEORIJSKI OKVIR MAKROEKONOMIJE
OTVORENE PRIVREDE
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OTVORENA PRIVREDA
• JE ONA KOJA SLOBODNO RAZMENJUJE SA SVIM DRUGIM PRIVREDAMA
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KLJUČNE MAKROEKONOMSKE VARIJABLE U OTVORENOJ PRIVREDI• Važne makroekonomske varijable u otvorenoj
privredi uključuju:• Neto izvoz• Neto inostrane investicije• Nominalni devizni kurs• Realni devizni kurs
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Osnovne pretpostavke makroekonomskog modela otvorene
privrede• BDP je data veličina• Cene su date
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Ponuda i tražnja raspoloživih viškova tržište deviza
• Tržište raspoloživih viškova (zajmovnih sredstava – loanable funds)
S = I + NCO – neto odliv kapitala• Pri ravnotežnoj kamatnoj stopi količina koju ljudi
žele da štede jednaka je zbiru željenih investicija i neto odliva kapitala
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Tržište raspoloživih viškova
• Ponuda raspoloživih viškova dolazi iz nacionalne štednje (S).
• Tražnja potiče od domaćih investicija i (I) i neto odliva kapitala (NCO).
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Tržište raspoloživih viškova
• Ponuda i tražnja za raspoloživim viškovima zavisi od realne kamatne stope.
• Veća realna kamatna stopa podstiče ljude da štede i povećava količinu ponuđenih zajmovnih sredstava.
• Kamatna stopa se menja tako da izjednači ponudu i tražnju na tržištu zajmovnih sredstava
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Slika 1 Tržište raspoloživih viškova
Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning
Količina raspoloživihviškova
realnakamatna
stopaponuda
(iz štednje)
Tražnja za raspoloživim viškovimaIz investicija i NCO
Ravnotežna količina
Ravnotežnarealnanakamatnastopa
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Tržište zajmovnih sredstava
• Pri ravnotežnoj kamatnoj stopi količina koju ljudi žele da štede biće jednaka količini investicija i neto odlivu kapitala
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Devizno tržište
• Dve strane deviznog tržišta čine NCO i NX.• NCO – neto odliv kapitala predstavlja
neravnotežu između kupovine i prodaje aktive• NX predstavlja neravnotežu između izvoza i
uvoza robe i usluga
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Devizno tržište
• Dinari se na deviznom tržištu razmenjuju za inostranu valutu.
• Za privredu u celini NCO i NX moraju biti isti, odnosno:
NCO = NX
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Devizno tržište
• Cena koja dovodi u ravnotežu ponudu i tražnju deviza zove se realni devizni kurs.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Devizno tržište
• Kriva tražnje za devizama je nagnuta nadole a što devizni kurs bude viši domaća roba biće skuplja.
• Kriva ponude je vertikalna jer količina dolara koja stoji na raspolaganju za neto odliv kapitala ne zavisi od realnog deviznog kursa.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Slika 2 Devizno tržište
Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning
količina dolara koja se konvertujeu stranu valutu
realnideviznikurs
Ponuda deviza (iz NCO)
Tražnja za dolarima(za neto izvoz)
Ravnotežnakoličina
Ravnotežnirealni devizni
kurs
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Devizno tržište
• Realni devizni kurs se prilagođava da uravnoteži ponudu i tražnju za dinarima.
• U tački ravnoteže tražnja za dinarima koji su potrebni za neto izvoz potpuno se izjednačava sa ponudom dolara koji će biti upotrebljeni za kupovinu aktive u inostranstvu.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
RAVNOTEŽA U OTVORENOJ PRIVREDI
• Na tržištu raspoloživih viškova ponuda se stvara iz nacionalne štednje a tražnja od domaćih investicija i NCO
• Na deviznom tržištu, ponuda je iz NCO a tražnja potiče od neto izvoza
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
RAVNOTEŽA U OTVORENOJ PRIVREDI
• Neto odliv kapitala povezuje tržište zajmovnih sredstava i devizno tržište.• Ključna determinanta NCP je realna kamatna stopa.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Slika 3 Kako neto odliv kapitala kapitala zavisi od kamatne stope
Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning
0 neto odliv kapitalakapitala
neto odliv kapitala kapitalaje negativan.
neto odliv kapitala kapitalaje pozitivan.
realnakamatna
stopa
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RAVNOTEŽA U OTVORENOJ PRIVREDI
• Cene na tržištu zajmovnih sredstava i na deviznom tržištu simultano se menjaju da bi oba tržišta sinhronizovano delovala
• Dok se to dešava, bivaju determinisane makroekonomske varijable kao što su nacionalna štednja, domaće investicije, neto inostrane investicije i neto izvoz.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Slika 4 Ravnoteža u otvorenoj privredi
Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning
(a) Tržište raspoloživih viškova (b) neto odliv kapitala kapitala
neto odliv kapitalaoutflow, NCO
realnakamatna
stopa
realnakamatna
stopa
(c) DEviyno tražite
količinadolara
količinarapoloživih viškova
neto odliv kapitala kapitala
Realnideviznikurs
ponuda
ponuda
tražnja
tražnja
r r
E
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KAKO EKONOMSKA POLITIKA DELUJE NA MAKROEKONOMSKU
RAVNOTEŽU• Najvažnije makroekonomske varijable zavise
od :• Budžetskog deficita• Spoljnotrgovinskih politika• Političke i ekonomske stabilnosti
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Budžetski deficit
• U otvorenoj privredi budžetski deficit . . . • Smanjuje ponudu zajmovnih sredstava,• Podiže kamatnu stopu,• Istiskuje domaće investicije,• Izaziva pad neto inostranih investicija.
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Slika 5 Efekti budžetskog deficita
Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning
(a) Tržište raspoloživih viškova (b) neto odliv kapitala kapitala
realnakamatna
stopa
realnakamatna
stopa
(c) devizno tržište
količinadolara
količinarapoloživih viškova
neto odliv kapitala
RealnaDeviznikurstopa
tražnja
tražnja
r2
NCO
SS
S S
r2
B
E1
r rA
1. Budžetski deficit smanjujeponudu raspoloživih viškova . . .
2. . . . štoo ipovećavarealnu Kamatnustopu
4. Smanjenjeneto odliva kapitalamanjuje Ponudu dolara
5. . . . izazivaApresijacijukursa.
3. . . . Što smanjuje
neto odliv kapitala
E2
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Uticaj budžetskog deficita na tržište zajmovnih sredstava
• Budžetski deficit smanjuje nacionalnu štednju što . . .
• Pomera krivu ponude ulevo, što . . .• Podiže kamatnu stpu
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Budžetski deficit
• Efekat budžetskog deficita na neto inostrane investicije• Više kamatne stope umanjuju neto inostrane
investicije
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Budžetski deficit
• Efekat na devizno tržište• Smanjenje neto inostranih investicija smanjuje
ponudu dolara koja se može konvertovati u stranu valutu.
• To izaziva apresijaciju realnog deviznog kursa.
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Spoljontrgovinska politika
• Spoljnotrgovinska politika je politika vlade da direktno utiče na količinu izvoza i uvoza koji će zemlja obaviti u određenom periodu.. • Carina: to je porez na uvezenu robu.• Uvozna kvota: To je dozvoljeni limit na količinu
uvoza
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Spoljnotrgovinska politika
• Pošto ne menjanju nacionalnu štednju niti domaće investicije, trgovinske politike ne mogu da izmene trgovinski bilans.• Za dati nivo nacionalne štednje i domaćih
investicija, realni devizni kurs će se prilagoditi tako da trgovinski bilans ostane isti.
• Imaju veći uticaj na mikroekonomska kretanja nego u makroekonomiji.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Spoljnotrgovinska politika
• Uticaj kvote• Pošto su strancima potrebni dinari da bi kupili
srpsku izvoznu robu, raste tražnja za dinarima• To izaziva apresijaciju realnog deviznog kursa.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Spoljnotrgovinska politika
• Uticaj kvote• Kamatna stopa se ne menja jer se ništa ne dešava na
tržištu zajmovnih sredstava.• Nema izmene neto izvoza. • Nema promene u neto inostranim investicijama čak
i ako kvota smanji uvoz.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Spoljnotrgovinska politika
• Uticaj kvote • Apresijacija povećava uvoz i smanjuje izvoz.• To neutrališe inicijalni rast neto izvoza koji nastaje
usled uvođenja uvozne kvote.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Slika 6 Efekti uvoznih restrikcija
Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning
(a) Tržište raspoloživih viškova (b) neto odliv kapitala kapitala
realnakamatna
stopa
realnakamatna
stopa
(c) devizno tržište
količinadolara
količinarapoloživih viškova
neto odliv kapitalaOutflow
Realnikurs
r r
ponuda
ponuda
tražnjaNCO
D
D
3. Neto izvozSe ne menja .
2. . . . Kurs apresira
.
E
E2
1. Raste tražnjaya dolarima
. .
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Spoljnotrgovinska politika
• Trgovinske politike neće uticati na trgovinski bilans
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Politička nestabilnost i beg kapitala
• Beg kapitala je obimno i naglo smanjenje tražnje za aktivom lociranom u zemlji
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Politička nestabilnost i beg kapitala
• Ima najveće posledice na zemlju iz koje kapital beži, ali deluje i na druge zemlje.
• Ako se investitori zabrinu za sigurnost svoje imovine, kapital vrlo brzo može da napusti zemlju.
• Kamatne stope rastu a domaća valuta depresira – samoispunjavajuće proročanstvo.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Politička nestabilnost i beg kapitala
• Kada su svetski investitori 1994. videli da Meksiko ima probleme, prodali su svoju imovinu koju su držali u Meksiku i upotrebili je da kupe aktivu u drugim zemljama.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Politička nestabilnost i beg kapitala
• To je povećalo NCO.• Tražnja za zajmonim sredstvima je porasla, što je
dovelo do rasta kamatne stope.• To je povećalo ponudu pezosa na deviznom tržištu.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Slika 7 Beg kapitala
Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning
(a) Tržište raspoloživih viškovau Meksiku (b) Mexican neto odliv kapitala kapitala
realnakamatna
stopa
realnakamatna
stopa
(c) devizno tržište
količinaPesos
količinarapoloživih viškova
neto odliv kapitala
realnaExchange
stopa
r1 r1
D1
D2
E
tražnja
S S2
ponuda
NCO2NCO1
1. Rast neto odliva kapitala
3. . . . što PovećavaKamatnu sotpu
2. . . . Raste tražnja za Raspoloživim viškovima
4. istovremenoRaste ponuda pezosa
5. . . . Te domaććaValutadepresira .
r2 r2
E
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Zašto možda dohodak neće rasti?• Centralna banka smanjuje ponudu novca
• Depresijacija poskupljuje uvoznu robu i diže nivo domaćih cena, to smanjuje količinu realnog novca M/P
• Potrošači mogu smanjiti potrošnju (nakit, odeća).
Sve navedeno pomera LM* ulevo.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
CASE STUDY: Kriza pezosa
10
15
20
25
30
35
7/10/94 8/29/94 10/18/94 12/7/94 1/26/95 3/17/95 5/6/95
U.S
. Cen
ts p
er M
exic
an P
eso
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
10
15
20
25
30
35
7/10/94 8/29/94 10/18/94 12/7/94 1/26/95 3/17/95 5/6/95
U.S
. Cen
ts p
er M
exic
an P
eso
CASE STUDY:
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Kriza pezosa nije pogodila samo Meksiko
• Američka dobra su postala skuplja• Američke firme izgubile tržište• Hiljade bankrotstva duž granice
• Meksička aktiva vredi manje u dolarima• Uticala na smanjenje štednje miliona američkih
penzionera
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Kako se odvijala krizaRanih 90-ih Meksiko je bio veoma privlačan za investicije. 1994, političke prilike izazivaju rast premije na rizik ( ):• Ustanak seljaka • Ubistvo vodećeg predsedničkog kandidata
Dodatni faktor: FED je podigla kamatnu stopu nekoliko puta da bi sprečila inflaciju u SAD (sledi, r* > 0)
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Razumevanje krize• Ovi događaji vršili su pritisak na pezos da
depresira• CB Meksika je neprestano ponavljala da
neće dozvoliti pad pezosa, tako da je prodavala dolare da bi mogla da povuče pezose i tako sačuva kurs
• To zahteva da zemlja ima dovoljno deviznih rezervi. Ima li?
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Dolarske rezerve CB Meksika
December 1993 ……………… $28 billion
August 17, 1994 ……………… $17 billion
December 1, 1994 …………… $ 9 billion
December 15, 1994 ………… $ 7 billion
Tokom 1994, centralna banka Meksika je utajila činjenicu da rezerve naglo padaju
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
katastrofa • Dec. 20: Meksiko devalvira pezos za 13%
(fiksira e na 25 umesto na 29 centi za dolar)
• Investitori su šokiranišokirani ! ! !…i uviđaju da mora da je CB istrošila rezerve…
, investitori beže iz meksičke aktive i izvlače svoj kapital iz Meksika.
• Dec. 22: rezerve CB skoro na izmaku• Napušta se fiksni režim i e pliva.• Pri slabom, e pada za još 30%.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Pojas za spasavanje
• 1995: SAD i MMF otvaraju kreditnu liniju vladi Meksika u vrednosti od 50 milijardi $
• To je povratilo poverenje i smanjilo premiju na rizik.
• Posle velike recesije tokom 1995, Meksiko je počeo sa snažnim oporavkom.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
• Gotovo za danas!
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Danica PopovićFaculty of Economics, University of BelgradeCenter for Liberal-democratic studies
Serbia in Global Economic Crisis
Workshop ‘The Regional Impact of the Global Economic Crisis: Looking into the Black Sea Economies’ (Thessaloniki, 4 December 2009)
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
SAD V. BRITAN NEMACKA FRANCUSKA
- - - -
-18% -7% -12% -15%
-15% -6% -18% -12%
-26% -2% -14% 4%19% 12% 13% -4%
13% 8% 26% -3%
17% 10% 14% 3%
16% 6% 12% 7%
5% 3% 6% -3%
BDP u svetu, % u odnosu na prethodnu godinu BDP u svetu, DP, % u odnosu na prethodnu godinu
Developing countries
Developed countries
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
30405060708090
100110120
130
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1928 1929 1930Indu
strjs
ka p
roiz
vodn
ja 1
929(
89) =
100 SAD
NemačkaVelika Britanija
Francuska
Great Depression and current Financial Crisis
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
3 measures
Fiscal expansionMonetary relaxationNo foreign trade restrictions /beggar thy
neighbour policy
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
The data
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
• Like in the previous three quarters, the decline in domestic demand was influenced the most by the major slowdown in loans to enterprises and households.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
greater insolvency of companies has also curbed economic activity
The number of companies whose accounts were blocked grew again in Q2 by around 6,000
and exceeded 66,000 at the end of July.
Around 25,000 companies had on average been insolvent before the crisis escalated in Serbia.
the increase in monetary expansiveness may lead to a reversal in the trend of the rise in the number of insolvent companies.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
The state needs to borrow money for two reasons: to cover the budget deficit
and to fund state projects
.
the borrowing would have to selectively target indisputably useful investment projects, such as road and energy
infrastructure construction.
government borrowing abroad is a measure limited both in terms of time and value and must be accompanied by constant monitoring of the level of public debt and rate of its repayment.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Unemployment
Srbija 16-18%
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Balance of payments
• In 2009 exceptionally low current account deficit• improvement is primarily a consequence of a year-on-year
fall in imports,• which dropped by more than exports did over the same
period,• as well as high remittance inflows
• The IMF loan arrangement has resulted in a major increase in foreign currency reserves held by the National Bank of Serbia (by €880 mn in Q2),
• but has also substantially increased long-term foreign debt.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
bop
• Improvements to the current and foreign trade accounts are, on the other hand, merely a reflection of issues raised by domestic recession;
• obviously, any recovery in production could again lead to a large deficit.
• the fact that raw materials and capital goods were the main components that recorded falls confirms the fact that Serbia’s economy is in recession.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
IMPORTS AND EXPORTS FALLING
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Remittances
• Average quarterly values of remittance income during the crisis stood at €660 mn (average of the three quarters mentioned above),
• as opposed to average quarterly values amounted to €400 mn.
• Even with the caveat that remittance data are not completely accurate, we can note that remittance inflows have risen during the crisis – or, rather, that they certainly have not fallen.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
30405060708090
100110
120130
1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937
Indu
strjs
ka p
roiz
vodn
ja 1
929(
89) =
100
SAD
NemačkaVelika Britanija
Francuska
Srbija, 1989-2009
Serbia in war and embargo 1990-2001
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Wages average growth 15% economic growth 5%
Plate u Srbiji, 1987-2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
dec. '90 - 752 DEM
dec. '93 - 21 DEM okt. '00 - 97 DEM
sep. '08 - 434 EUR
342€
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Unit labor costs
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
• Since these data are for 2008, it should be borne in mind that the period since the beginning of the crisis is characterized by
• further foreign borrowing in both Serbia and the region, • as well as a simultaneous fall in GDP and exports. • Since September (when the crisis began) Serbia’s debt grew by €1.2 bn,
or 10.4 percentage points of GDP. This suggests that risks facing the Serbian economy in this respect are growing quickly.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
IMF forecasts for Serbia (as of May 2009)
• very high values of both indebtedness indicators are expected over the coming several years.
• The share of foreign debt in GDP will stand at • 76.3% by the end of 2009• and is to rise to 85.6% in 2010 • peaking at 90.4% in 2011 • and gradually declining afterwards.
• Similarly, the IMF’s forecasts for Serbia with respect to the other indicator, the ratio of foreign debt to exports of goods and services, are as follows – 282.2% in 2009; 302.8% in 2010; and 306.3% in 2011, after which a gradual decline is expected
• (see http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2009/cr09158.pdf).
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
The outcome?
• cutting the fiscal deficit to 3.5% involves savings in current public spending of more than the 2% percentage points
• The overvalued dinar will prevent exports
• The greatest tensions lie in fiscal policy. • In the short term, it is fiscal policy that should
stimulate economic activity, but…
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
• Monetary policy should assist • But major reforms lie ahead
• Pension system• Bancruptcy law• Healt system reform• Privatisation of public enterprises
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Srbija je zatvorena
Glavni izvozni proizvodi , mil. USD.
0 100 200 300 400 500
Gv ožđe i čelik
Voće i pov rće
Obojeni metali
Gotov i proizv odi
Guma
Šećer
Odeća
Metalni proizv odi
Proizv odi od plastike
Organska hemija
IZVOZ I UVOZ U BRUTO DOMAĆEM PROIZVODU, 2003.
78 79
68 6862
48
8278
65 65
54
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Belgija Slovačka Mađarska Češka rep Bugarska Srbija
prirast u 2004.
39
izvozuvoz
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
6.8% 6.8% 3.2% 6.8%
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Bruto plate u evrima i prema PPP
350 400 470 505 570680 680 690
925
1140
193012
0
150 210
230
220
420
420
390
320 39
0
920
800
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
Bulgaria
Rom
ania
Litvanija
Letonija
Estonia
Slovakia
Poland
Hungary
Serbia
Czech R
.
Slovenia
EU 15
Izvor: Galgoczi, 2003 PPP Nominal wage
Srbija
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
I moralna dilema
• Pola miliona ljudi radi u državnom sektoru• Izvoznici čine su 1/5 GDP
• 4/5 GDP je “mirno”• Niko ne ide u stečaj• Posao se ne gubi zbog krize i dnevnih
ekonomskih razloga• Vredi li štrajkovati?
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Zašto se ne spusti referentna kamatna stopa
• Zato što bi onda kurs skočio na mnogo viši nivo!!!!
• MMF- 3 mlrd upravo u te svrhe• Rizik ostaje • Prelazak na evro• Ključ je u fiskalnoj politici
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
• Pravosuđe – reforma• Zero tolerance
• Zakoni (stečaj)
• Ukidanje partijske svojine nad javnim preduzećima
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Danica PopovićFaculty of Economics, University of BelgradeCenter for Liberal-democratic studies
Serbia in Global Economic Crisis
Workshop ‘The Regional Impact of the Global Economic Crisis: Looking into the Black Sea Economies’ (Thessaloniki, 4 December 2009)
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
SAD V. BRITAN NEMACKA FRANCUSKA
- - - -
-18% -7% -12% -15%
-15% -6% -18% -12%
-26% -2% -14% 4%19% 12% 13% -4%
13% 8% 26% -3%
17% 10% 14% 3%
16% 6% 12% 7%
5% 3% 6% -3%
BDP u svetu, % u odnosu na prethodnu godinu BDP u svetu, DP, % u odnosu na prethodnu godinu
Developing countries
Developed countries
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
30405060708090
100110120
130
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1928 1929 1930Indu
strjs
ka p
roiz
vodn
ja 1
929(
89) =
100 SAD
NemačkaVelika Britanija
Francuska
Great Depression and current Financial Crisis
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
3 measures
Fiscal expansionMonetary relaxationNo foreign trade restrictions /beggar thy
neighbour policy
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
The data
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
• Like in the previous three quarters, the decline in domestic demand was influenced the most by the major slowdown in loans to enterprises and households.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
greater insolvency of companies has also curbed economic activity
The number of companies whose accounts were blocked grew again in Q2 by around 6,000
and exceeded 66,000 at the end of July.
Around 25,000 companies had on average been insolvent before the crisis escalated in Serbia.
the increase in monetary expansiveness may lead to a reversal in the trend of the rise in the number of insolvent companies.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
The state needs to borrow money for two reasons: to cover the budget deficit
and to fund state projects
.
the borrowing would have to selectively target indisputably useful investment projects, such as road and energy
infrastructure construction.
government borrowing abroad is a measure limited both in terms of time and value and must be accompanied by constant monitoring of the level of public debt and rate of its repayment.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Unemployment
Srbija 16-18%
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Balance of payments
• In 2009 exceptionally low current account deficit• improvement is primarily a consequence of a year-on-year
fall in imports,• which dropped by more than exports did over the same
period,• as well as high remittance inflows
• The IMF loan arrangement has resulted in a major increase in foreign currency reserves held by the National Bank of Serbia (by €880 mn in Q2),
• but has also substantially increased long-term foreign debt.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
bop
• Improvements to the current and foreign trade accounts are, on the other hand, merely a reflection of issues raised by domestic recession;
• obviously, any recovery in production could again lead to a large deficit.
• the fact that raw materials and capital goods were the main components that recorded falls confirms the fact that Serbia’s economy is in recession.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
IMPORTS AND EXPORTS FALLING
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Remittances
• Average quarterly values of remittance income during the crisis stood at €660 mn (average of the three quarters mentioned above),
• as opposed to average quarterly values amounted to €400 mn.
• Even with the caveat that remittance data are not completely accurate, we can note that remittance inflows have risen during the crisis – or, rather, that they certainly have not fallen.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
30405060708090
100110
120130
1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937
Indu
strjs
ka p
roiz
vodn
ja 1
929(
89) =
100
SAD
NemačkaVelika Britanija
Francuska
Srbija, 1989-2009
Serbia in war and embargo 1990-2001
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Wages average growth 15% economic growth 5%
Plate u Srbiji, 1987-2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
dec. '90 - 752 DEM
dec. '93 - 21 DEM okt. '00 - 97 DEM
sep. '08 - 434 EUR
342€
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Unit labor costs
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
• Since these data are for 2008, it should be borne in mind that the period since the beginning of the crisis is characterized by
• further foreign borrowing in both Serbia and the region, • as well as a simultaneous fall in GDP and exports. • Since September (when the crisis began) Serbia’s debt grew by €1.2 bn,
or 10.4 percentage points of GDP. This suggests that risks facing the Serbian economy in this respect are growing quickly.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
IMF forecasts for Serbia (as of May 2009)
• very high values of both indebtedness indicators are expected over the coming several years.
• The share of foreign debt in GDP will stand at • 76.3% by the end of 2009• and is to rise to 85.6% in 2010 • peaking at 90.4% in 2011 • and gradually declining afterwards.
• Similarly, the IMF’s forecasts for Serbia with respect to the other indicator, the ratio of foreign debt to exports of goods and services, are as follows – 282.2% in 2009; 302.8% in 2010; and 306.3% in 2011, after which a gradual decline is expected
• (see http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2009/cr09158.pdf).
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
The outcome?
• cutting the fiscal deficit to 3.5% involves savings in current public spending of more than the 2% percentage points
• The overvalued dinar will prevent exports
• The greatest tensions lie in fiscal policy. • In the short term, it is fiscal policy that should
stimulate economic activity, but…
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
• Monetary policy should assist • But major reforms lie ahead
• Pension system• Bancruptcy law• Healt system reform• Privatisation of public enterprises
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Srbija je zatvorena
Glavni izvozni proizvodi , mil. USD.
0 100 200 300 400 500
Gv ožđe i čelik
Voće i pov rće
Obojeni metali
Gotov i proizv odi
Guma
Šećer
Odeća
Metalni proizv odi
Proizv odi od plastike
Organska hemija
IZVOZ I UVOZ U BRUTO DOMAĆEM PROIZVODU, 2003.
78 79
68 6862
48
8278
65 65
54
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Belgija Slovačka Mađarska Češka rep Bugarska Srbija
prirast u 2004.
39
izvozuvoz
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
6.8% 6.8% 3.2% 6.8%
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Bruto plate u evrima i prema PPP
350 400 470 505 570680 680 690
925
1140
193012
0
150 210
230
220
420
420
390
320 39
0
920
800
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
Bulgaria
Rom
ania
Litvanija
Letonija
Estonia
Slovakia
Poland
Hungary
Serbia
Czech R
.
Slovenia
EU 15
Izvor: Galgoczi, 2003 PPP Nominal wage
Srbija
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
I moralna dilema
• Pola miliona ljudi radi u državnom sektoru• Izvoznici čine su 1/5 GDP
• 4/5 GDP je “mirno”• Niko ne ide u stečaj• Posao se ne gubi zbog krize i dnevnih
ekonomskih razloga• Vredi li štrajkovati?
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Zašto se ne spusti referentna kamatna stopa
• Zato što bi onda kurs skočio na mnogo viši nivo!!!!
• MMF- 3 mlrd upravo u te svrhe• Rizik ostaje • Prelazak na evro• Ključ je u fiskalnoj politici
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
• Pravosuđe – reforma• Zero tolerance
• Zakoni (stečaj)
• Ukidanje partijske svojine nad javnim preduzećima