NCARResearch into climate issues

Climate Analysis Section•NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

Global warming is Global warming is “unequivocal”:“unequivocal”:Adaptation to climate changeAdaptation to climate change

Global warming is Global warming is “unequivocal”:“unequivocal”:Adaptation to climate changeAdaptation to climate change• Assess vulnerability• Devise coping strategies• Determine impacts of possible changes• Plan for future changes

Requires information

• Assess vulnerability• Devise coping strategies• Determine impacts of possible changes• Plan for future changes

Requires information

Imperative: A climate information

system

Imperative: A climate information

system Observations: forcings, atmosphere, ocean, land

Analysis: comprehensive, integrated, products Assimilation: model based, initialization Attribution: understanding, causes Assessment: global, regions, impacts, planning Predictions: multiple time scales Decision Making: impacts, adaptation

Observations: forcings, atmosphere, ocean, land

Analysis: comprehensive, integrated, products Assimilation: model based, initialization Attribution: understanding, causes Assessment: global, regions, impacts, planning Predictions: multiple time scales Decision Making: impacts, adaptation

An Integrated Earth System Information SystemAn Integrated Earth System Information System

Climate Information SystemClimate Information System

Trenberth, 2008 WMO Bull Nature 6 December 2007

NCARNCAR

Climate Analysis Section

The mission is to increase the understanding of the atmosphere and climate system through empirical studies and diagnostic analyses of the atmosphere and its interactions with the Earth's surface and oceans on a wide range of scales.

ENSO Climate Change NAO

By increasing understanding, we evaluate and develop datasets, new methods of analysis, new

products, and establish attribution and predictability and the

processes involved, all of which contribute to a climate

information system and climate services

e.g.

CAS ActivitiesCommunity Service and Outreach

• Assessments (IPCC, CCSP SAPs)• WCRP (CLIVAR; GEWEX), GCOS, IGBP (GLOBEC)• NRC (CRC), CCSP, NOAA, other panels, advisory bds• Working with postdocs, students and visitors• E&O (SOARS, K-12 Education; Public lectures) • Media outreach (UCAR contact list)• Congressional testimony

• Editorships• Decision making (WGA, WUCA, …)

Lead Authors

NCARSome Contributing “Authors”

2007 Coordinating Lead Authors

CAS contributed a lot to IPCC

CASCAS

Some metrics

CAS ActivitiesProductivity

Publications: Since 1 January 2004 CAS scientists have authored or coauthored ~234* refereed journal articles

Impact: Publications are highly cited (4 staff members are recognized by ISI as “highly cited researchers”; over 38,700 citations among us (July 2010))

Proposals: 16!: all CAS scientists have 1 or more (usually 2)

Collaborations: Many in universities and other laboratories

Community Service and Outreach: as outlined previously, service is extensive and visibility is high

*D42,D28,F21,H23,M1,P10,S5,T9,T61,W34 (July 2010; incl in press): 301 with Meehl! In place and pending

CAS Activities Web page

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas

Receives many hits:•CAS home page one of most visited in CGD: comparable to CESM1.0•Top section page (by far)•13 of top 20 most visited in CGD are CAS

•For July 1-25: •CAS home page 1800 hits•Scientists: 230 to 466 hits (well above other CGD)

CAS Activities Data Set Development and Community Distribution (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog)

• Acquisition (with DSS) of data (global analyses; reanalyses; satellite; surface)• Reformatting, Evaluation; Improvement• Development of new (value-added) products• Climate Indices• Documentation of methods, metadata, results• Promotion of reprocessing and reanalysis• Web Access and Data Catalogs• Processing and Data Display; Workshops (http://www.ncl.ucar.edu)

CAS Activities Data Set catalog

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog

Has many pages backing it up:Recently redone.

Has 7 of top 20 visits (out of cgd.ucar.edu), mainly for climate indices (3382 hits 1-25 July 2010)

Diagnostic Studies and AttributionDiagnostic Studies and Attribution

Of the real world Of mean, variability and change Phenomena (ENSO, NAO, PDO, AMO, MJO etc) High impacts events (droughts, floods, hurricanes) Processes

Of models Numerical experimentation: mechanisms and attribution

Development of analytical and diagnostic techniques to process observations and model data and facilitate their evaluation

Of the real world Of mean, variability and change Phenomena (ENSO, NAO, PDO, AMO, MJO etc) High impacts events (droughts, floods, hurricanes) Processes

Of models Numerical experimentation: mechanisms and attribution

Development of analytical and diagnostic techniques to process observations and model data and facilitate their evaluation

CCSMObservedRainfall annual cycle

Climate Analysis: Diagnostic, Theoretical and Modeling Studies

Empirical and diagnostic analyses of models and observations

Climate Analysis: Diagnostic, Theoretical and Modeling Studies

Empirical and diagnostic analyses of models and observations

Climate observations Community data sets Community software development Climate predictability Climate sensitivity Paleoclimate Climate change

Climate observations Community data sets Community software development Climate predictability Climate sensitivity Paleoclimate Climate change

Physical constraints: e.g. The energy and water cycles• How they change over time

Physical constraints: e.g. The energy and water cycles• How they change over time

Trenberth et al 2009; Trenberth et al 2007

Water cycle researchWater cycle research• The global water cycle and its response to global warming,

focusing on clouds, precipitation, streamflow, soil moisture droughts, etc.

• Model evaluation and diagnostics

Drought is increasing most placesDai et al 2004

Land precipitation closely matches river discharge

Large ENSO effects Mt Pinatubo effectsTrenberth and Dai 2007Dai et al 2009

AttributionCAS has carried out many studies on mechanisms and modes of variability

that have contributed to observed climate anomalies.

CAS helps develop capabilities that contribute to an operational attribution activity by pioneering studies and numerical experimentation that might be used in near real time to allow reliable statements to be made not only about what the state of the climate is, but also why it is the way it is.

Studies involve the atmosphere and the fully coupled system.

All forcing: (SST+GHG+O3)(pattern correlation with nature = 0.8)

GHG+O3 Forcing

Sea Level Pressure Trend Simulated by CAM3: 1950-2000

SST forcing only

Deser and Phillips (J. Climate)

Reanalysis Horiz.Res Dates Vintage Status

NCEP/NCAR R1 T62 1948-present 1995 ongoing

NCEP-DOE R2 T62 1979-present 2001 ongoing

CFSR (NCEP) T382 1979-present 2009 thru 2009, ongoing

C20r (NOAA) T62 1875-2008 2009 Complete, in progress

ERA-40 T159 1957-2002 2004 done

ERA-Interim T255 1989-present 2009 ongoing

JRA-25 T106 1979-present 2006 ongoing

JRA-55 T319 1958-2012 2009 underway

MERRA (NASA) 0.5 1979-present 2009 thru 2010, ongoing

Current atmospheric reanalyses, with the horizontal resolution (latitude; T159 is equivalent to about 0.8 ), the starting and ending dates, the approximate vintage of the model and analysis system, and current status.

Atmospheric ReanalysesCAS Activities

•Transport•E-P_ocean•P-E_land

CCSM4 1990s vs Trenberth et al for 2000-2005

Lower as the 1990s

include Pinatubo

Change in Winter Sea Level Pressure (1980-2008)•(hPa)•Dec-Mar

•Pressure Falls

•Pressure Rises

Decadal Climate Variability

•1900-2009

•1900-2009

Hurrell et al. (2010)

e.g.

SST product for AMIP integrations• Updated frequently (supports attribution)• Available through Community Data Portal• Used by major modeling groups

Leadership of and involvement in CESM WGs• Leadership of overall project, CCWG and CVWG• Many experiments for community use: (http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/working_groups/Variability/experiments.html)

• Coordinated experiments addressing role of SSTs and soil moisture in regional drought• 40-member CCSM ensemble (2000-2061: A1B)

Evaluation of CESM and component models• Comparisons among models and with observations and evaluations to score the results, including in multi-model ensembles

CAS: CESM Numerical Experiments and Data Sets

Pacific Cold and Atlantic Warm

CAS Activities

e.g.

Initialized Decadal Prediction

Studies to assess the predictability associated with the initial state and thermal inertia, modes of variability, internal mechanisms and coupling among climate system components and forcings

Nested Regional Climate Modeling

CAS ActivitiesPrediction and Predictability

North Atlantic MOC PredictabilityTrend (1st “Decade”) Trend (2nd “Decade”)

Develop two-way nesting capability (WRF/ROMS and CAM/POP)

Apply to investigate scale-interactions and develop approaches to address systematic CGCM biases

Provide community support for the modeling system

Apply the models for climate change research involving extremeevents such as hurricanes

Develop unified global modeling system representing a wide range of scales

An Informed Guide to Climate Datasets with Relevance to Earth System Model

Evaluation(proposal submitted to NSF 10-554 EaSM)

Objectives:• Evaluate and assess selected climate datasets• Provide “expert-user” guidance addressing strengths & limitations• Fills and major community gap and an immediate need within CESM

Features:• Facilitate and enhance access to relevant datasets for diagnostic analyses and model evaluation (including CMIP5/AR5)

• Web-based guide, including a means for enabling additional informed commentary and datasets outside of our own expertise• Atmosphere, Ocean, Land, Cryosphere, Biosphere• Expertise within CAS well positioned for this task

Prototype of the “Informed Guide”

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NESL Imperatives (paraphrased)NESL Imperatives (paraphrased)

• promote innovation and creativity• improve prediction and attribution of variations and changes

in climate; assessment of impacts; and communicating results;• advance our world-leading numerical modeling systems of the

atmosphere and earth system, and support their wide community use;

• advanced supercomputing and data services;• support earth system research and understanding through

development and support of observational facilities, and leadership of focused observational studies; and,

• attract diverse students and early career scientists, and provide them with exciting opportunities for educational and professional development.

• promote innovation and creativity• improve prediction and attribution of variations and changes

in climate; assessment of impacts; and communicating results;• advance our world-leading numerical modeling systems of the

atmosphere and earth system, and support their wide community use;

• advanced supercomputing and data services;• support earth system research and understanding through

development and support of observational facilities, and leadership of focused observational studies; and,

• attract diverse students and early career scientists, and provide them with exciting opportunities for educational and professional development.

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Future needs: Observations and Analysis

Future needs: Observations and Analysis

Observations: in situ and from space (that satisfy the climate observing principles);

A performance tracking system; Climate Data Records (CDRs) The ingest, archival, stewardship of data,

data management; Access to data Data processing and analysis The analysis and reanalysis of the

observations and derivation of products, Data assimilation and model initialization

Observations: in situ and from space (that satisfy the climate observing principles);

A performance tracking system; Climate Data Records (CDRs) The ingest, archival, stewardship of data,

data management; Access to data Data processing and analysis The analysis and reanalysis of the

observations and derivation of products, Data assimilation and model initialization