Upload
others
View
0
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
www.ncondezi.com
NCONDEZI – THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED POWER PRODUCER | Investor Presentation
December 2012
DISCLAIMER
This document, which is personal to the recipient, has been issued by Ncondezi Coal Company Limited (the “Company”). This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of the Company, nor shall any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form part of or be relied on in connection with any contract or investment decision relating thereto, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company. In particular, this document and the information contained herein does not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information. The information in this document has been provided by the Company or obtained from publicly available sources. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information or opinions contained in this document or on its completeness. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by or on behalf of the Company or any of the Company’s directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document and no liability whatsoever is accepted by the Company or any of the Company’s members, directors, officers or employees nor any other person for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of such information or opinions or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
Nothing in this document or in the documents referred to in it should be considered as a profit forecast. Past performance of the Company or its shares cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
Certain statements, beliefs and opinions in this document are forward-looking, which reflect the Company’s or, as appropriate, the Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and assumptions could adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein. Forward-looking statements contained in this document regarding past trends or activities should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. The Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this document.
This document has been prepared in compliance with English law and English courts will have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising from or connected with this document.
2
OVERVIEW
Near-term integrated thermal coal mine & power generator
Large, long life, 1800MW power & export thermal coal operation
Phased development strategy
1st Phase targeting 300MW integrated mine & power plan
100% focused on meeting Mozambican demand
Power project not dependent on development of coking coal rail & port infrastructure projects
Strategic Partner Search underway
Highly experienced team, African power & mining expertise
Funded for all current corporate initiatives
Listed on AIM: NCCL
3
STRATEGIC LOCATION IN POWER & EMERGING MINING HUB
Power
Long history of power generation from Cahora Bassa hydro dam
Part of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)
Established relationship of exporting power to South Africa & Zimbabwe
High demand growth in Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe
Close to planned STE network for future generation growth
Close to Malawi & Zambia
Ncondezi Project well located
- c.90km from existing transmission grid
- Incremental c.25km to then connect to proposed STE network
- c.110km from Malawi substation
Coal
Developing coking & thermal region
Regional coal production forecast to reach +30Mtpa by 2020
Rail & port infrastructure projects under development
4
ROBUST ENERGY DEMAND OUTLOOK IN MOZAMBIQUE
Mozambique currently has largest % demand growth in southern Africa
Only 20% of Mozambique electrified
Accelerating electrification & access to electricity is a strategic imperative for Government
Higher tariffs trend in region supports viability of IPP projects, up to 50% increase in SAPP
Mozambique tariffs have increased by 10.3% over past 2 years
Source: Transmission Grid Consulting, forecast excludes Mozal consumption of c.950MW
5
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
MW
CAGR 2016 – 2026: 4%
Mozambique Load Growth: Medium Forecast
6
Small Gas & Hydro
Large Offshore Gas
Long term potential
No current transmission capacity
No infrastructure for development
Requires billions in upfront capex
Gas generation currently limited
Small scale projects of 50 – 140MW
Majority power exported to South Africa
Coal Near term potential
Existing transmission capacity
High demand
Ideally positioned to supply STE backbone
Large Hydro
Established exporter to SA
“Green” energy
Receives price premium
LARGE SCALE, LONG LIFE, PHASED OPPORTUNITY
7
Open Pit Mine Power Plant Transmission
DFS completed DFS completed System Optimisation Study completed
Can support up to 7.2Mtpa domestic coal mine
1800MW developed in phases of 300W units Existing transmission capacity
1-3Mtpa export product, driven by ramp up in power plant Located adjacent to mine Only 90kms to transmission network
+25 years LoM +25 years LoM Targeting existing Mozambican demand
Mine gate costs of $21/t 20% IRR
Low LOM strip ratio of 1.7 7
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
8
Phased development minimises capital outlay
Phased expansion to meet growth in power transmission capacity
Export production will be driven by development of coking coal rail & port
infrastructure
ST
RA
TE
GY
OBJECTIVE To deliver a financeable, capital efficient project which maximises project returns and shareholder value creation
• Realistic in current market conditions • Power projects stable cash generators • Project finance available
• Increments of 300MW units optimal • Existing transmission capacity • Meets growth in demand
• Major coking coal projects ramping up • Long term coal seaborne prices expected to
improve
300MW INTEGRATED MINE & POWER PLANT PROJECT
9
Mine Power Plant Transmission
1.2Mtpa open pit 17CV CFB technology 90kms to grid connection
Mine DFS Power DFS & Peer Review by STEAG 300MW Power Evacuation Study
Optimised capex underway Power Plant MFS distributed Power Evacuation MFS distributed
ESIA underway ESIA underway Aerial surveillance of evacuation route
Signed Framework Agreement Power Purchase Agreement with EdM ESIA underway
Coal Supply Agreement Power Framework Agreement being negotiated with MoE
20% IRR
POWER PLANT SITE SUITABILITY
10
Power plant site meets all key criteria:
Adjacent to coal source Site topography – no major civil works required
Using CFB, a proven technology Land availability – no major settlements in selected area
Well suited for Ncondezi coal Access to water – Ncondezi & Revuboe rivers
Lower SOx & NOx emissions – meeting Mozambique & World Bank standards
PHASE 1A FOCUSED ON IMMEDIATE MOZAMBICAN DEMAND Northern Grid currently has c.650MW transmission capacity for in-country demand &
exports to Zimbabwe & South Africa
Demand forecast to grow to +600MW Source: Transmission Grid Consulting
11
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
MW Northern Region
Medium Forecast High Forecast Low Forecast
Northern Grid
Southern Grid not connected to Northern & Central grids
– Currently imports 1,390MW from South Africa
– 950MW allocated to BHP’s Mozal aluminium smelter
Responsible for majority of current & future electricity demand
Further development in southern Mozambique constrained – No additional power supply from South Africa – Limited domestic generation potential
Central grid has limited connection with Northern Grid & Zimbabwe
MOZAMBICAN TRANSMISSION NETWORK
12
Central Grid
Southern Grid
Northern Grid
Existing Mozambican transmission network is limited, with 3 separate grids
Northern region responsible for majority of current & future power generation
2000MW currently generated at Cahora Bassa hydro
Northern Grid also has established wheeling path to South Africa & Zimbabwe
Future potential connections into Malawi and Zambia grids
LONG TERM SUPPLY POTENTIAL TO MEET DOMESTIC & REGIONAL DEMAND GROWTH
13
Mozambique under significant pressure to expand transmission capacity to meet domestic & regional demand
The STE Project* is a key Government development project – Connects all three grids together, from Tete to Maputo – +3100MW transmission capacity via 2 new transmission
lines – Estimated total cost of US$1.8 billion – Commissioning target 2017 - 2020
Range of potential partners already identified
– Brazil’s Eletrobras, Portugal’s REN, France’s Electricité de France & South Africa’s Eskom
Will provide additional transmission capacity into South Africa & Zimbabwe
Ncondezi well situated to connect to STE in longer term
*Previously known as CESUL
FINANCING 300 MW PROJECT
Project financing for power plants is between 70% – 85%
Strong cash flow generation supports debt financing
– Highly predictable long term revenue stream
Significant potential to reduce project costs through debt structure
Equity requirement can be met with mixture of NCCL equity, IPP, and/or sponsor funding
– Sponsors generally provide funding for EPC, O&M or IPP rights
Strong appetite to fund power projects in current environment
– Strong electricity demand
– Significant supply gap
14
Power Plant capital structure analysis
Gross unit production MW 300 300
Auxiliary consumption MW 30 30
Net unit output MW 270 270
Coal requirement Mtpa 1.2 1.2
Capex1 $m 554 554
Debt % 70% 85%
Debt $m 387.8 470.9
Equity requirement $m 166.2 83.1 1 Capex includes $50m for transmission line
ROAD MAP TO COMMISSIONING
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Optimised capex for 300MW Project Q1
Mining Concession (Submitted Q4 2012) X
Power Framework Agreement (1st draft received from MoE) X
Coal Supply Agreement X
300MW Power Purchase Agreement X
Appointment of power plant EPC contractor X
Selection of Owners Engineer X
Selection of Operator & Maintenance Contractor X
Power Plant Detailed Engineering X
Power Plant Financing Q2 Q2
Mine construction commences X
Power Plant construction commences X
Mine commissioning X
Power Plant commissioning Q4 Q2
15
NCONDEZI – THE NEXT MOZAMBICAN POWER PRODUCER
16
Deliverable
Phased approached minimises capital outlay
Phase 1 development uses existing Mozambican infrastructure to meet current demand
Well positioned for expansion to meet growth in demand & transmission capacity
Capex optimisation ongoing
Financeable
Power projects readily financeable as strong cash generators
Strong expressions of interest from range of EPCs, IPP Power Producers & Developers, financial institutions
Established demand & existing transmission capacity
Focused on Mozambique
100% focus on supplying Mozambican demand
Aligned with Mozambican Government’s strategy of in-country electrification
Not reliant on third party coking coal related rail & port infrastructure
CONTACT DETAILS
www.ncondezicoal.com
Hanno Pengilly
Chief Development Officer
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7183 5402
Alex Buck
Investor Relations
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7183 5402
www.ncondezi.com
APPENDICES
SUMMARY OF THE MINE DFS
Key Parameters Life of Mine 25 years
Ramp up period 8 years
Construction period 18 months
Blocks mined South & North
RoM 18Mtpa
Strip ratio 1.7 t:t
Yields 45.9%
- Domestic (17CV) 51.0%
- Export (25CV) 28.9%
Product Total 8.2 – 10.2Mtpa
- Domestic 7.2Mtpa
- Export (25CV) 1 – 3Mtpa
Average Life of Mine Costs
- Mine gate 21.3$/t
- Rail & port 30.0$/t
Life of Mine Capex $627m
IRR 17% 19
www.ncondezi.com
SAPP POWER OPPORTUNITY
1Southern African Power Pool Source: SAPP, NERSA, EDM
REGIONAL POWER OPPORTUNITY
Southern African region currently in power capacity shortage – SAPP1 currently has shortfall of 6,000MW – Additional 1,500MW pa required over next 20 years
This situation encourages bilateral trading as a means of ensuring security of power supply between SAPP countries
Mozambique is an increasingly important regional player – Currently sells to South Africa & Zimbabwe
Future average wholesale energy price increases making Independent Power Producer (“IPP”) projects financially viable – Previous policy of artificially low prices resulted in region
short fall
21
South Africa 25.3%
Mozambique 10.3%
Zambia 25.0%
Tanzania 18.5%
Botswana 50.0%
Tariff increase in last 2 years
SAPP Transmission Grid
SOUTH AFRICAN POWER OPPORTUNITY
Largest producer & consumer of power – Current installed capacity of 44,175MW
Electricity market worth $6.5bn in 2010 & expected to grow to $10.3bn by 2014
Faces critical shortage of power in medium to long term – Since 2008, balancing supply & demand has been challenging
and is unsustainable
Government led power generation strategy now being implemented
Requires additional 40,000MW by 2025 – Equivalent to over 130Mtpa coal requirement – Strategy to import power from coal power plants in Mozambique – Supportive of increased role of IPPs
22
Current Electricity Breakdown
South African Grid
92.6%
5.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Coal Nuclear Pumped Hydro Gas
*Source: Eskom, South African Department of Energy
MULTIPLE THERMAL COAL EXPORT OPTIONS
23
Short Term: Sena Railway to Port of Beira Current capacity of 2Mtpa, 1st expansion to 6.5Mtpa due for completion end 2012 Expansion to 20Mtpa by 2017 planned by Mozambican Government
Medium Term: Barge down the Zambezi to Port of Chinde Technical studies confirmed feasibility, environmental studies being led by Rio Tinto 3Mtpa - 20Mtpa target completion 2015
Longer Term: ITD Greenfield Rail & Port Project (Rio Tinto) Targeting low cost rail & port option, shortest distance to port Study identified scalable solution from 25Mtpa up to 100Mtpa Rio Tinto leading feasibility study, due for completion 2015 Ncondezi signed agreement with Rio Tinto for all its export production
Short Term: Nacala railway line & port (Vale) Natural deep water port with potential capacity of +30Mtpa
US$4.4Bn upgrade by Vale for initial capacity of 18Mtpa
Target completion in 2015
Longer Term: Nacala railway line & port (ENRC) 1,010ksm rail line from Moatize to Nacala port 100-125Mtpa target capacity, 3rd party access Consortium to include ENRC & Government
THE NCONDEZI POWER PROJECT: MULTIPLEWIN-WIN BENEFITS
24
• Supports Government’s policy to capitalise on its position as a net export of power to become an important regional energy player.
• Multiplier effect across Mozambique’s industrial & consumer bases
Maximising Mozambique’s Resource Endowment In-Country
• Provides sustainable power generating capacity • Enhances stabilised capability for transmission • Further potential to add additional power generation
Growing Mozambique’s Power Capabilities & Quality of Supply
• Increasing Mozambique people’s access to electricity & improving quality of life
• Direct & indirect job creation & skills transfer & training • Contributor to local, national & regional development
Improving Lives & Creating Long Lasting Development
• Beneficiation of a by-product to electricity • CFB (Circulating Fluidised Bed) is proven technology • Lower SOx & Nox emissions meet Mozambique & World Bank
standards • Reducing environmental impact of discard coal dumps
Providing Power without Comprising on the Environment