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www.ncondezi.com NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED POWER PRODUCER | Investor Presentation December 2012

NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

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Page 1: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

www.ncondezi.com

NCONDEZI – THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED POWER PRODUCER | Investor Presentation

December 2012

Page 2: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

DISCLAIMER

This document, which is personal to the recipient, has been issued by Ncondezi Coal Company Limited (the “Company”). This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of the Company, nor shall any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form part of or be relied on in connection with any contract or investment decision relating thereto, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company. In particular, this document and the information contained herein does not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information. The information in this document has been provided by the Company or obtained from publicly available sources. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information or opinions contained in this document or on its completeness. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by or on behalf of the Company or any of the Company’s directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document and no liability whatsoever is accepted by the Company or any of the Company’s members, directors, officers or employees nor any other person for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of such information or opinions or otherwise arising in connection therewith.

Nothing in this document or in the documents referred to in it should be considered as a profit forecast. Past performance of the Company or its shares cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.

Certain statements, beliefs and opinions in this document are forward-looking, which reflect the Company’s or, as appropriate, the Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and assumptions could adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein. Forward-looking statements contained in this document regarding past trends or activities should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. The Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this document.

This document has been prepared in compliance with English law and English courts will have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising from or connected with this document.

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Page 3: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

OVERVIEW

  Near-term integrated thermal coal mine & power generator

  Large, long life, 1800MW power & export thermal coal operation

  Phased development strategy

  1st Phase targeting 300MW integrated mine & power plan

  100% focused on meeting Mozambican demand

  Power project not dependent on development of coking coal rail & port infrastructure projects

  Strategic Partner Search underway

  Highly experienced team, African power & mining expertise

  Funded for all current corporate initiatives

  Listed on AIM: NCCL

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Page 4: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

STRATEGIC LOCATION IN POWER & EMERGING MINING HUB

Power

 Long history of power generation from Cahora Bassa hydro dam

 Part of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)

 Established relationship of exporting power to South Africa & Zimbabwe

 High demand growth in Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe

 Close to planned STE network for future generation growth

 Close to Malawi & Zambia

 Ncondezi Project well located

- c.90km from existing transmission grid

- Incremental c.25km to then connect to proposed STE network

- c.110km from Malawi substation

Coal

 Developing coking & thermal region

 Regional coal production forecast to reach +30Mtpa by 2020

 Rail & port infrastructure projects under development

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Page 5: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

ROBUST ENERGY DEMAND OUTLOOK IN MOZAMBIQUE

  Mozambique currently has largest % demand growth in southern Africa

  Only 20% of Mozambique electrified

  Accelerating electrification & access to electricity is a strategic imperative for Government

  Higher tariffs trend in region supports viability of IPP projects, up to 50% increase in SAPP

  Mozambique tariffs have increased by 10.3% over past 2 years

Source: Transmission Grid Consulting, forecast excludes Mozal consumption of c.950MW

5

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

MW

CAGR 2016 – 2026: 4%

Mozambique Load Growth: Medium Forecast

Page 6: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

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Small Gas & Hydro

Large Offshore Gas

  Long term potential

  No current transmission capacity

  No infrastructure for development

  Requires billions in upfront capex

  Gas generation currently limited

  Small scale projects of 50 – 140MW

  Majority power exported to South Africa

Coal   Near term potential

  Existing transmission capacity

  High demand

  Ideally positioned to supply STE backbone

Large Hydro

  Established exporter to SA

  “Green” energy

  Receives price premium

Page 7: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

LARGE SCALE, LONG LIFE, PHASED OPPORTUNITY

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Open Pit Mine Power Plant Transmission

  DFS completed   DFS completed   System Optimisation Study completed

  Can support up to 7.2Mtpa domestic coal mine

  1800MW developed in phases of 300W units   Existing transmission capacity

  1-3Mtpa export product, driven by ramp up in power plant   Located adjacent to mine   Only 90kms to transmission network

  +25 years LoM   +25 years LoM   Targeting existing Mozambican demand

  Mine gate costs of $21/t   20% IRR

  Low LOM strip ratio of 1.7 7

Page 8: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

PROJECT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

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Phased development minimises capital outlay

Phased expansion to meet growth in power transmission capacity

Export production will be driven by development of coking coal rail & port

infrastructure

ST

RA

TE

GY

OBJECTIVE To deliver a financeable, capital efficient project which maximises project returns and shareholder value creation

•  Realistic in current market conditions •  Power projects stable cash generators •  Project finance available

•  Increments of 300MW units optimal •  Existing transmission capacity •  Meets growth in demand

•  Major coking coal projects ramping up •  Long term coal seaborne prices expected to

improve

Page 9: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

300MW INTEGRATED MINE & POWER PLANT PROJECT

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Mine Power Plant Transmission

  1.2Mtpa open pit 17CV   CFB technology   90kms to grid connection

  Mine DFS   Power DFS & Peer Review by STEAG   300MW Power Evacuation Study

  Optimised capex underway   Power Plant MFS distributed   Power Evacuation MFS distributed

  ESIA underway   ESIA underway   Aerial surveillance of evacuation route

  Signed Framework Agreement   Power Purchase Agreement with EdM   ESIA underway

  Coal Supply Agreement   Power Framework Agreement being negotiated with MoE

  20% IRR

Page 10: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

POWER PLANT SITE SUITABILITY

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Power plant site meets all key criteria:

  Adjacent to coal source   Site topography – no major civil works required

 Using CFB, a proven technology   Land availability – no major settlements in selected area

 Well suited for Ncondezi coal   Access to water – Ncondezi & Revuboe rivers

  Lower SOx & NOx emissions – meeting Mozambique & World Bank standards

Page 11: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

PHASE 1A FOCUSED ON IMMEDIATE MOZAMBICAN DEMAND   Northern Grid currently has c.650MW transmission capacity for in-country demand &

exports to Zimbabwe & South Africa

  Demand forecast to grow to +600MW Source: Transmission Grid Consulting

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-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

MW Northern Region

Medium Forecast High Forecast Low Forecast

Northern Grid

Page 12: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

  Southern Grid not connected to Northern & Central grids

–  Currently imports 1,390MW from South Africa

–  950MW allocated to BHP’s Mozal aluminium smelter

  Responsible for majority of current & future electricity demand

  Further development in southern Mozambique constrained –  No additional power supply from South Africa –  Limited domestic generation potential

  Central grid has limited connection with Northern Grid & Zimbabwe

MOZAMBICAN TRANSMISSION NETWORK

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Central Grid

Southern Grid

Northern Grid

Existing Mozambican transmission network is limited, with 3 separate grids

  Northern region responsible for majority of current & future power generation

  2000MW currently generated at Cahora Bassa hydro

  Northern Grid also has established wheeling path to South Africa & Zimbabwe

  Future potential connections into Malawi and Zambia grids

Page 13: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

LONG TERM SUPPLY POTENTIAL TO MEET DOMESTIC & REGIONAL DEMAND GROWTH

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  Mozambique under significant pressure to expand transmission capacity to meet domestic & regional demand

  The STE Project* is a key Government development project –  Connects all three grids together, from Tete to Maputo –  +3100MW transmission capacity via 2 new transmission

lines –  Estimated total cost of US$1.8 billion –  Commissioning target 2017 - 2020

  Range of potential partners already identified

–  Brazil’s Eletrobras, Portugal’s REN, France’s Electricité de France & South Africa’s Eskom

  Will provide additional transmission capacity into South Africa & Zimbabwe

  Ncondezi well situated to connect to STE in longer term

*Previously known as CESUL

Page 14: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

FINANCING 300 MW PROJECT

  Project financing for power plants is between 70% – 85%

  Strong cash flow generation supports debt financing

–  Highly predictable long term revenue stream

  Significant potential to reduce project costs through debt structure

  Equity requirement can be met with mixture of NCCL equity, IPP, and/or sponsor funding

–  Sponsors generally provide funding for EPC, O&M or IPP rights

  Strong appetite to fund power projects in current environment

–  Strong electricity demand

–  Significant supply gap

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Power Plant capital structure analysis

Gross unit production MW 300 300

Auxiliary consumption MW 30 30

Net unit output MW 270 270

Coal requirement Mtpa 1.2 1.2

Capex1 $m 554 554

Debt % 70% 85%

Debt $m 387.8 470.9

Equity requirement $m 166.2 83.1 1 Capex includes $50m for transmission line

Page 15: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

ROAD MAP TO COMMISSIONING

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Optimised capex for 300MW Project Q1

Mining Concession (Submitted Q4 2012) X

Power Framework Agreement (1st draft received from MoE) X

Coal Supply Agreement X

300MW Power Purchase Agreement X

Appointment of power plant EPC contractor X

Selection of Owners Engineer X

Selection of Operator & Maintenance Contractor X

Power Plant Detailed Engineering X

Power Plant Financing Q2 Q2

Mine construction commences X

Power Plant construction commences X

Mine commissioning X

Power Plant commissioning Q4 Q2

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Page 16: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

NCONDEZI – THE NEXT MOZAMBICAN POWER PRODUCER

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Deliverable

  Phased approached minimises capital outlay

  Phase 1 development uses existing Mozambican infrastructure to meet current demand

  Well positioned for expansion to meet growth in demand & transmission capacity

  Capex optimisation ongoing

Financeable

  Power projects readily financeable as strong cash generators

  Strong expressions of interest from range of EPCs, IPP Power Producers & Developers, financial institutions

  Established demand & existing transmission capacity

Focused on Mozambique

  100% focus on supplying Mozambican demand

  Aligned with Mozambican Government’s strategy of in-country electrification

  Not reliant on third party coking coal related rail & port infrastructure

Page 17: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

CONTACT DETAILS

www.ncondezicoal.com

Hanno Pengilly

Chief Development Officer

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7183 5402

Alex Buck

Investor Relations

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7183 5402

Page 18: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

www.ncondezi.com

APPENDICES

Page 19: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

SUMMARY OF THE MINE DFS

Key Parameters Life of Mine 25 years

Ramp up period 8 years

Construction period 18 months

Blocks mined South & North

RoM 18Mtpa

Strip ratio 1.7 t:t

Yields 45.9%

-  Domestic (17CV) 51.0%

-  Export (25CV) 28.9%

Product Total 8.2 – 10.2Mtpa

-  Domestic 7.2Mtpa

- Export (25CV) 1 – 3Mtpa

Average Life of Mine Costs

- Mine gate 21.3$/t

- Rail & port 30.0$/t

Life of Mine Capex $627m

IRR 17% 19

Page 20: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

www.ncondezi.com

SAPP POWER OPPORTUNITY

Page 21: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

1Southern African Power Pool Source: SAPP, NERSA, EDM

REGIONAL POWER OPPORTUNITY

  Southern African region currently in power capacity shortage –  SAPP1 currently has shortfall of 6,000MW –  Additional 1,500MW pa required over next 20 years

  This situation encourages bilateral trading as a means of ensuring security of power supply between SAPP countries

  Mozambique is an increasingly important regional player –  Currently sells to South Africa & Zimbabwe

  Future average wholesale energy price increases making Independent Power Producer (“IPP”) projects financially viable –  Previous policy of artificially low prices resulted in region

short fall

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South Africa 25.3%

Mozambique 10.3%

Zambia 25.0%

Tanzania 18.5%

Botswana 50.0%

Tariff increase in last 2 years

SAPP Transmission Grid

Page 22: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

SOUTH AFRICAN POWER OPPORTUNITY

  Largest producer & consumer of power –  Current installed capacity of 44,175MW

  Electricity market worth $6.5bn in 2010 & expected to grow to $10.3bn by 2014

  Faces critical shortage of power in medium to long term –  Since 2008, balancing supply & demand has been challenging

and is unsustainable

  Government led power generation strategy now being implemented

  Requires additional 40,000MW by 2025 –  Equivalent to over 130Mtpa coal requirement –  Strategy to import power from coal power plants in Mozambique –  Supportive of increased role of IPPs

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Current Electricity Breakdown

South African Grid

92.6%

5.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1%

Coal Nuclear Pumped Hydro Gas

*Source: Eskom, South African Department of Energy

Page 23: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

MULTIPLE THERMAL COAL EXPORT OPTIONS

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Short Term: Sena Railway to Port of Beira   Current capacity of 2Mtpa, 1st expansion to 6.5Mtpa due for completion end 2012   Expansion to 20Mtpa by 2017 planned by Mozambican Government

Medium Term: Barge down the Zambezi to Port of Chinde   Technical studies confirmed feasibility, environmental studies being led by Rio Tinto   3Mtpa - 20Mtpa target completion 2015

Longer Term: ITD Greenfield Rail & Port Project (Rio Tinto)   Targeting low cost rail & port option, shortest distance to port   Study identified scalable solution from 25Mtpa up to 100Mtpa   Rio Tinto leading feasibility study, due for completion 2015   Ncondezi signed agreement with Rio Tinto for all its export production

Short Term: Nacala railway line & port (Vale)   Natural deep water port with potential capacity of +30Mtpa

  US$4.4Bn upgrade by Vale for initial capacity of 18Mtpa

  Target completion in 2015

Longer Term: Nacala railway line & port (ENRC)   1,010ksm rail line from Moatize to Nacala port   100-125Mtpa target capacity, 3rd party access   Consortium to include ENRC & Government

Page 24: NCONDEZI THE FIRST MOZAMBIQUE COAL FIRED OWER …€¦ · Company’s directors’ current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements

THE NCONDEZI POWER PROJECT: MULTIPLEWIN-WIN BENEFITS

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•  Supports Government’s policy to capitalise on its position as a net export of power to become an important regional energy player.

•  Multiplier effect across Mozambique’s industrial & consumer bases

Maximising Mozambique’s Resource Endowment In-Country

•  Provides sustainable power generating capacity •  Enhances stabilised capability for transmission •  Further potential to add additional power generation

Growing Mozambique’s Power Capabilities & Quality of Supply

•  Increasing Mozambique people’s access to electricity & improving quality of life

•  Direct & indirect job creation & skills transfer & training •  Contributor to local, national & regional development

Improving Lives & Creating Long Lasting Development

•  Beneficiation of a by-product to electricity •  CFB (Circulating Fluidised Bed) is proven technology •  Lower SOx & Nox emissions meet Mozambique & World Bank

standards •  Reducing environmental impact of discard coal dumps

Providing Power without Comprising on the Environment