NCSEJ WEEKLY NEWS BRIEF

Washington, D.C. January 22, 2016

U.S., British, French Defense Ministers Criticize Russian Role In Syria

RFE/RL, January 21, 2016

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-role-in-syria-criticized/27500694.html

The U.S., British, and French defense ministers have criticized Russia's role in the Syria conflict and called on

Moscow to stop targeting the opposition forces who are fighting the Islamic State (IS) militant group.

U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said on January 20 that the Russians "are on the wrong track strategically

and also in some cases tactically."

He spoke after a meeting in Paris of the seven defense ministers who are part of a coalition fighting against IS

in Syria and Iraq.

"We don't have a basis for broader cooperation [with Russia]," Carter added.

His British counterpart, Michael Fallon, said that he was "very concerned" by Russia's use of unguided

weapons that have caused "several hundred [civilian] casualties."

"We've seen Russian strikes on [moderate] opposition forces, on towns and villages, particularly in the south of

Syria, which simply prolonging the Syrian war...[and] propping up [Syrian President Bashar al-] Assad," said

Fallon.

Russia's Defense Ministry spokesman, Major General Igor Konashenkov, rejected Fallon's claims as

"slanderous lies."

Russia insists it is bombing "terrorists" in Syria and has not caused any civilian casualties.

French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said Paris hopes that "Russia will concentrate its efforts against

[IS] and stop bombing the groups of the uprising [against Assad] who themselves are fighting [IS]."

Russia displays naval might off Syria’s Mediterranean

By Vladimir Isachenkov

AP, January 21, 2016

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/russia-displays-naval-might-off-syrias-

mediterranean-coast/2016/01/21/ebbff6d0-c026-11e5-98c8-7fab78677d51_story.html

A Russian navy missile cruiser is on duty off Syria’s coast to help protect a Russian air base with an array of

long-range missile systems.

On Thursday, the Russian military put its naval might in the eastern Mediterranean on display, taking a group

of Moscow-based journalists on a rare visit to the Varyag cruiser.

The display of Russia’s military operations in support of Syrian President Bashar Assad comes ahead of

planned peace talks Monday in Geneva, which are meant to pave the way for a political settlement for Syria.

To reach the cruiser, journalists boarded a Russian destroyer in Tartus, where Russia has had a supply and

repair facility for its ships in the Mediterranean since Soviet times. It’s now the only such support facility outside

the former Soviet Union.

US gives Ukraine USD 23 mln in medical equipment and military communications

Ukraine Today, January 1, 2016

http://uatoday.tv/news/us-gives-ukraine-usd-23-mln-in-medical-equipment-and-military-

communications-572965.html

The United States delivered yesterday USD 23 million in vital military communicatioins and medical equipment

to Ukraine, according to the US Embassy in Ukraine.

The shipment included USD 21 million in in secure radio equipment and nearly USD 2 million in battlefield life-

saving medical equipment, the Embassy has reported.

The equipment will be delivered to Ukrainian Army units who take part in the US-led drills at Yavoriv and

Khmelnytskyi.

The US defence budget law for 2016 authorizes USD 300 million assistance for Ukraine to fight Russian-

backed militants. USD 50 million of that could fund lethal aid and counter-artillery radars.

Kazakhstan Moves up Parliamentary Election to March 20

AP, January 20, 2016

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/kazakhstan-moves-parliamentary-election-march-20-

36398727

Kazakhstan has called an early election for parliament, moving up the vote to March 20 instead of waiting until

next year.

In setting the new date Wednesday, President Nursultan Nazarbayev said it would help the Central Asian

country deal with the economic pressures resulting from the low oil price and slowdowns in neighboring China

and Russia.

The early vote also was seen as aimed at getting the election out of the way and a new parliament in place in

case the economic downturn leads to any social discontent.

The current parliament is dominated by Nazarbayev's party Nur Otan, which won 81 percent of the vote in the

2012 election.

Nazarbayev, who has held power since the 1991 Soviet collapse, was last re-elected in 2011 with 96 percent

of the vote.

Latvia to commemorate Holocaust victims with series of January events

Baltic Times, January 18, 2016

http://www.baltictimes.com/latvia_to_commemorate_holocaust_victims_with_series_of_january_event

s/

The Latvian Foreign Ministry announced a number of events will take place across the country between

January 22 and 29, in relation to International Holocaust Remembrance Day on January 27.

The program of the events dedicated to Holocaust remembrance in Latvia includes concerts, exhibitions, the

launch of a book, and a conference.

Movies will also be screened, and admission to all events will be free.

In association with the Embassy of Hungary as the country holding the chairmanship of the International

Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA), other foreign embassies in Riga, the European Commission

Representation in Latvia, the Latvian Culture Ministry, several local governments, the Lauku Avize publishing

house, and the Latvian Foundation invite everybody to attend the events.

In November 2005, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution designating January 27 – the day of

liberation of the Auschwitz-Birkenau concentration camps – as an annual International Day of Commemoration

to honour the victims of the Holocaust.

This took place 60 years after the liberation of the Nazi concentration camps and the end of the Holocaust in

1945.

Since 2005, January 27 sees Holocaust victims remembered across the globe.

Uzbek Foreign Minister, U.S. Officials Hold Talks In Washington

RFE/RL, January 19, 2016

http://www.rferl.org/content/uzbekistan-kamilov-washington-talks/27497477.html

An Uzbek delegation led by the authoritarian Central Asia nation's foreign minister met with senior U.S. officials

in Washington on January 19 for consultations on a range of issues, including human rights and security.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Nisha Desai Biswal welcomed the Uzbek

delegation, led by Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov, for the sixth U.S.-Uzbekistan Annual Bilateral

Consultations.

The two sides were set to address "political developments, regional stability and security, human rights and

labor, education and cultural exchanges, and economic development and trade, and other issues of mutual

interest," a State Department official told RFE/RL.

Autocratic Uzbek President Islam Karimov has been in power since the Soviet era and tolerates little dissent.

International rights groups have long accused his government of rampant abuses, including imprisoning and

torturing political opponents, and have urged Washington to step up pressure on Tashkent over its human

rights record.

The State Department official said the United States "looks forward to broadening and deepening its

relationship with Uzbekistan on the basis of these candid and constructive conversations."

Ukraine threatens sanctions on Israelis doing business in Crimea

Jerusalem Post, January 18, 2016

http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Ukraine-threatens-sanctions-on-Israelis-doing-business-in-Crimea-

441961

Israeli companies doing business in Crimea may be subject to sanctions, the Ukrainian Embassy in Tel Aviv

threatened last week.

According to the Ukrainians, Israeli citizens have been traveling to the Black Sea peninsula, which was

annexed by Russia in 2014, without permission from Kiev, and Israelis firms have been engaged in “business

activity in cooperation with the illegal authorities of Crimea without a permit.”

Such activities, the embassy asserted in a statement, are a violation of both Ukrainian and international law,

and should they continue, “relevant information will be transmitted to the competent authorities of Ukraine to

further bring to justice perpetrators of violations of the current legislation.”

Companies that continue operating in Crimea without coordinating with Kiev may be subject to “special

restrictive measures,” such as sanctions.

Speaking with The Jerusalem Post on Monday, embassy press secretary Olena Ivanchuk stated that last

November-December Kiev became aware of a visit to Crimea by a group of Israeli companies in the fields of

agriculture and agro-technologies as well as “cooperation between the illegal occupying authorities of Crimea

and the Israeli company Telecom and Technology Transfer Ltd.”

While the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem declined to comment, representatives of Jewish bodies in both

mainland Ukraine and Crimea issued strong and conflicting statements on the matter.

In an email to the Post, Eduard Dolinsky of the Kiev-based Ukrainian Jewish Committee stated that he fully

agreed with the ultimatum, explaining that “we warned Israelis even at the very beginning of Crimea

annexation that it would be a big mistake to visit or work with them without Ukrainian approval.

“I think that the Israeli government should issue a similar warning for Israeli citizens and companies,” he

added.

In a joint statement Monday evening, several Jewish organizations in Crimea, including the Crimean Jewish

Congress, panned Ukraine, stating that they were “surprised by the threats of the Embassy of Ukraine in the

State of Israel to punish the Jews of Israel, for their communication and connection with the part of our people,

the Jews of the Crimea.”

Ukraine must not “interfere in Russian-Israeli relations,” the Crimean Jewish groups contended, adding that the

embassy’s statement was “aimed at undermining the legitimate right of Israel to carry out cooperation with their

compatriots in Crimea [and] intimidate participants in legitimate economic activity.”

This is not the first time that the Crimean Jewish community has been at odds with Ukraine.

Last month the Crimean Jewish Congress issued a harsh statement lambasting Ukrainian President Petro

Poroshenko, who had accused the Kremlin of stirring up anti-Semitism while addressing the Knesset during a

state visit.

Unrest for 2nd day: 7,000 hold anti-govt protest in Moldova

By Corneliu Rusnac

AP, January 21, 2016

http://news.yahoo.com/moldova-govt-sworn-protesters-storm-parliament-083651944.html

About 7,000 people held an anti-government protest Thursday in the Moldovan capital, a day after

demonstrators stormed the legislature after it approved a new pro-European government.

Protesters gathered outside government offices and Parliament in Chisinau to protest Prime Minister Pavel

Filip, the former technology minister and former candy factory manager, who presented his Cabinet of

politicians and specialists to President Nicolae Timofti late Wednesday.

Scuffles broke out Wednesday between police and the protesters who stormed the Parliament and 15 people

were injured, including nine police officers.

On Thursday, protesters blocked a main artery in the capital as they staged a peaceful protest. Demonstrators

shouted "Down with the government! We are the people!" and "Early elections!"

The vote by Parliament on Wednesday ended a three-month standoff between Timofti and Parliament, which

the president would have dissolved had it not approved a new government by Jan. 29. The previous

government was dismissed in late October over corruption allegations.

Some demonstrators who support opposition political parties want closer links to Russia. Others are

demanding a crackdown on corruption and a thorough investigation into the $1.5 billion went missing from

three banks prior to the November 2014 parliamentary election.

Moldova has been mired in political instability since 2014. Last year, Moldova had five prime ministers and

there were weeks of protests about the missing money.

Romanian President Klaus Iohannis on Thursday urged Moldova's government to undertake reforms.

10,000 protest new government in Moldova as tensions rise

AFP, January 21, 2016

https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/World/2016/Jan-21/333155-moldova-braces-for-more-protests-after-

new-government-sworn-in.ashx

Some 10,000 people massed in the Moldovan capital Chisinau on Thursday as tensions in the pro-Western

nation flared following the secret midnight swearing-in of a new government.

Lawmakers of the impoverished former Soviet republic on Wednesday approved a new government amid

political turmoil, with protesters storming the parliament building and opposition legislators attempting to block

the vote.

The swearing-in of the new cabinet has exacerbated tensions over alleged high-level corruption in the country

of 3.5 million wedged between Ukraine and Romania.

Opposition protesters marched along the capital's main avenues in sub-zero temperatures and rallied in front

of the parliament building, which was cordoned off by a police cordon which was six rows deep.

Clutching state flags, protesters urged the authorities to hold snap elections as they chanted "down with the

government" and "down with parliament."

"Yesterday we were cheated, they trampled on democracy, freedoms, human rights and laws," opposition

leader Andrei Nastase said.

"All of this is happening because Moldova's chief oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc usurped the country," he said,

referring to one of the targets of the protests.

Plahotniuc is one of the country's richest men, and is accused of using his fortune to meddle in politics.

Another opposition leader, Renato Usatii, vowed protesters would "topple this regime."

"Down with thieves and the illegal government!" he said.

Security has been tightened to prevent a repeat of Wednesday's clashes.

Moldova has been locked in political crisis over a $1-billion (910-million-euro) corruption scandal that triggered

mass demonstrations and the arrest of Vlad Filat, who served as prime minister from 2009 to 2013.

President Nicolae Timofti has endorsed the new government despite the rallies.

"I hope that this government, formed following a long period of political instability and the government's

temporary fulfillment of its obligations, can competently and skillfully govern in this difficult situation," Timofti

said in a statement after the swearing-in ceremony.

- Russia, US urge calm -

Several dozen protesters on Wednesday broke through police lines and into the parliament building after the

government was chosen, while police threw smoke grenades and used batons to try to disperse the

demonstrators.

Authorities said that 31 people -- including 27 police -- had been injured in the clashes.

Eleven of them were hospitalised.

General Prosecutor Corneliu Gurin said authorities had launched a criminal probe into the clashes.

In a sign of the tense atmosphere, Vlad Turcanu, the spokesman for the Moldovan president, resigned after

claiming he had mistakenly told reporters the swearing-in of the government had been postponed by a day.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Thursday urged all sides to respect the law and renounce violence.

In a statement released on Wednesday night, the US embassy in Moldova urged all sides to "refrain from acts

that encourage or provoke violence" and called on authorities to immediately address demonstrators'

concerns.

The last government, which was also pro-EU, lost a parliamentary confidence vote in October and was

dismissed.

Since then the parliament has been deadlocked over its replacement.

In 2014, the government signed a historic EU association agreement despite bitter opposition from former

master Russia.

Around 78 percent of Moldova's population is ethnic Romanian, while Ukrainians and Russians account for

around 14 percent.

Putin's Invitation To European Jews Sparks Mixed Reactions

By Claire Bigg

RFE/RL, January 20, 2016

http://www.rferl.org/content/putin-invitation-european-jews-reaction-mockery/27499866.html

Russian President Vladimir Putin has an unexpected offer for European Jews subjected to what he describes

as rampant persecution in the West -- move to Russia.

"They can come to us," he told a delegation of the European Jewish Congress (EJC) in Moscow on January

19. "They left the Soviet Union. Let them return."

Jews in Europe are "trying to hide their ethnicity," he continued, saying that some of them were "afraid of

wearing a yarmulke in public."

Putin was responding to remarks by the head of the EJC, Russian-born Viatcheslav Moshe Kantor, who

warned that anti-Semitism in Europe had reached World War II levels and that "Jews are fleeing once-

prosperous Europe."

European countries, in particular France, have seen a number of high-profile anti-Semitic attacks in recent

years, including a deadly hostage-taking in a Paris kosher market two days after a shooting rampage at the

satirical Charlie Hebdo magazine in January 2015.

But while the pro-Kremlin broadcaster RT praised Putin for offering "refuge" to European Jews "as a rising

wave of anti-Semitic attacks engulfs Europe," his remarks have met with a good deal of skepticism considering

Russia's own spotty track record in fighting hate crimes.

Authorities in Russia's remote Jewish Autonomous Oblast, which lies close to the Pacific coast on the border

with China, have been quick to back Putin's proposal. Governor Aleksandr Levintal has already extended a

warm welcome to all Jews fleeing from Europe.

The prospect of relocating to Russia, let alone to the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, appears unlikely to appeal to

many European Jews. Most of those who hail from former Soviet republics came to Europe in the late 1980s

and the early 1990s, and have long assimilated into their adopted countries.

"Vladimir Putin's offer was perhaps well-meaning, but personally I'm absolutely not interested," says Diana, a

Moscow native who now lives in Paris. "I've lived in France for more than 20 years. I love France and I feel like

a French citizen."

Despite recent attacks against Jews in France, Diana, a finance specialist, says reports of unbridled anti-

Semitism are greatly exaggerated. "I have never felt threatened or suffered from anti-Semitism in France," she

says. "I have no intention of leaving France; it's not more dangerous here than in Israel, Russia, or elsewhere."

Putin's proposal has generated a lively debate online, with many commentators pointing out that while

Europe's Jewish community has indeed been targeted by a number of attacks in recent years, anti-Semitism

has long been on the rise in Russia, too.

"Nationalists with clubs assault a train passenger in New Moscow," reads another sarcastic comment, referring

to an apparently racially motivated incident reported in Russian media this month. "Jews, come to us."

According to Israeli authorities, nearly 5,000 Russians of Jewish descent moved to Israel in 2014 -- more than

double than in any of the previous 16 years.

US lifts ban on funding ‘neo-Nazi’ Ukrainian militia

By Sam Sokol

Jerusalem Post, January 18, 2016

http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/US-lifts-ban-on-funding-neo-Nazi-Ukrainian-militia-441884

Congress is reported to have recently repealed its ban on a Ukrainian militia accused of being neo-Nazi,

opening the way for American military assistance.

Last June, Congress passed a resolution intended to block American military funding for Ukraine from being

used to provide training or weaponry for the Azov Battalion, an independent unit that had been integrated into

the former Soviet Republic’s national guard and was taking part in operations against Russian- backed rebels.

Called a “neo-Nazi paramilitary militia” by Congressmen John Conyers Jr. and Ted Yoho, who cosponsored

the bipartisan amendment, the battalion has been a source of controversy since its inception.

With the neo-Nazi Wolfsangel symbol on its unit flash – which resembles a black swastika on a yellow

background – and founders drawn from the ranks of the paramilitary national socialist group called “Patriot of

Ukraine,” the group would have been a fringe phenomenon in any Western nation, but with its army

unequipped to face the separatist threat in the east, Kiev actually integrated Azov into its military forces.

According to a report in The Nation, the Pentagon lobbied the House Defense Appropriations Committee to

remove the Conyers-Yoho amendment from the 2016 defense budget, claiming it was unnecessary as such

funding was already prohibited under another law.

However, The Nation asserted that the law in question, known as the Leahy Law, only prohibits funding to

groups that have “committed a gross violation of human rights,” which would not apply in this case.

The news that the Azov Battalion is now legally able to receive American aid has enraged the Simon

Wiesenthal Center, which last week successfully blocked the battalion from holding a recruitment meeting in

Nantes, France.

“This step is hardly surprising to anyone who has been following the growing danger of Holocaust distortion in

post-Communist Europe, and especially in the Baltics, Ukraine and Hungary,” said Wiesenthal Center

Jerusalem office head Efraim Zuroff.

“In recent years, the United States has purposely ignored the glorification of Nazi collaborators, the granting of

financial benefits to those who fought alongside the Nazis, and the systematic promotion of the canard of

equivalency between Communist and Nazi crimes by these countries because of various political interests.”

Likud MK Avraham Neguise also lambasted the decision, telling The Jerusalem Post that “If the ban is lifted,

funds may reach neo-Nazis, and their first target is the Jewish community.”

One of the best ways to combat anti-Semites, he asserted, is “by damaging them economically.”

Not everyone was so upset, however, with the Vaad of Ukraine, a Jewish communal body comprising a

number of different organizations and known for its nationalist stance on many issues, coming out in favor of

the move.

“I appreciate this decision. It must be clearly understood: there is no kind of ‘neo-Nazi Ukrainian militia’ now.

Azov is a regular military unit subordinate to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. It is not irregular division neither a

political group. Its commanders and fighters might have personal political views as individuals, but as an armed

police unit Azov is a part of the system of the Ukrainian defense forces,” said anti-Semitism researcher

Vyacheslav A. Likhachev, speaking on behalf of the Vaad.

Russian “aggression” is a much bigger threat than Azov, Likhachev insisted, adding that “it is necessary to

clearly distinguish between the Azov regiment and political projects related to its former commander.”

“Of course, manifestations of neo-Nazism in Ukraine are unacceptable. But it has nothing to do with the

question of assistance to the Ukrainian armed forces.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

Russia Pushing for An Endgame in Ukraine

By Matthew Bodner

Moscow Times, January 21, 2016

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-pushing-for-an-endgame-in-ukraine/556437.html

The appearance of one of President Vladimir Putin's most enigmatic associates, Vladislav Surkov, at a

meeting with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland last Friday has sparked speculation that

Moscow and Washington are approaching an endgame in Ukraine after two years of conflict.

"That is was Surkov, and not [Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory] Karasin — Nuland's counterpart — is very

significant," said foreign affairs expert Vladimir Frolov. "Surkov is a key decision-maker on the Donbass with

the authority to make tactical adjustments to the Russian position."

Though he has allegedly been a major player in the crafting and managing of Russia's Ukraine policy over the

past two years, Surkov tends to operate behind the scenes. He has officially not taken part in any previous

high-level negotiations with the United States, until now.

Analysts said Surkov's involvement indicates Russia is trying now to bring a resolution to the ongoing conflict

in Ukraine as a means of seeking relief from Western sanctions — which have combined with a collapse in

global oil prices to deal real damage to the Russian economy.

Under the Radar

Both the U.S. State Department and the Russian Foreign Ministry have been relatively silent with regards to

the substance of Nuland's meeting with Surkov — a senior Russian government figure and close Putin

associate who was among the first placed on the U.S. sanctions list in 2014.

Surkov told reporters that the meeting was essentially a "brainstorming" session on possible compromises that

would allow the Minsk II agreements, signed in February 2015, to finally be implemented and the crisis drawn

to a close.

State Department spokesman John Kirby said after the meeting on Friday that "[Surkov] is the appropriate

person in [the Russian] government [with whom] to have this discussion about Minsk implementation."

Kirby said only that the two discussed "the situation in eastern Ukraine and the need for a full implementation

of the Minsk agreements," he said, adding that the talks were constructive and designed to support ongoing

international negotiations to bring the crisis to a close.

Endgame on the Horizon?

The nature of Surkov and Nuland's meeting, as well as the lack of official chatter — or even leaks to the media

— about the substance of the discussions, indicates that real negotiations are taking place, according to Dr.

Mark Galeotti, a Russian foreign and security affairs expert.

"Nuland is not one to spare the Russians blushes, so if they felt they got nowhere, either she would have said

so or by now that would have been leaked … and common sense would suggest that Russia ought to be

looking for some kind of exit strategy," Galeotti said.

The Donbass project, comprised of the aspirational Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics, has been an

expensive failure. The Ukrainian government in Kiev remains in power, and Russian involvement in the conflict

has not resulted in any decisive outcome for the rebels.

Cease-fire lines in Eastern Ukraine as envisioned by Minsk agreements

And there are other signals that Russia is now getting serious about a deal, such as the appointment of Boris

Gryzlov — a senior member of the Russian national security council — as Moscow's representative to the

international contact group supervising Minsk implementation.

"[Gryzlov] may not be a decision maker, but he's a trusted executor, and he's someone with a certain amount

of political clout — which is what you'd need to seal the deal," said Galeotti.

Although the Kremlin appears to be positioning itself for a deal with the West, obstacles to the implementation

of the Minsk II agreement remain. Among the list of potential spoilers are the Russian people, who have spent

the last two years watching a media war against neo-fascism in Kiev.

Analysts said that the Kremlin's state media machine would most likely keep Ukraine out of the headlines after

presenting a "mission accomplished" scenario in the Donbass — the fascists were defeated, the region is

ready to integrate with Kiev.

But Kiev itself may yet undermine a deal. As part of the Minsk II agreements, Ukraine agreed to amend their

constitution to provide for the self-governance of the pro-Russian Luhansk and Donetsk regions. In exchange,

Ukraine would be given full control of its border with Russia.

The Ukrainian legislature is expected to vote on these amendments in the next several weeks, but Russia has

already sounded the alarm that Kiev is not fully living up to its end of the bargain — the law as written is only

part of a transitional constitution, Putin said.

According to Alexei Chesnakov, a Russian political analyst and former Kremlin staffer, one of the topics of the

Surkov-Nuland meeting was how to fix a Ukrainian election law and law on self-governance for the Donbass.

As currently written, "the self-proclaimed republics and Russia will not recognize the amendment," he said.

But Frolov argued that Moscow is likely using the meetings to lobby the West to pressure Kiev into settling the

conflict on Moscow's terms — accepting that the regions will remain permanently autonomous in a federalized

Ukraine.

"If that proved impossible, then the second option is to get the West to acknowledge that the whole house of

cards collapsed through no fault of Russia's, but because Ukraine was unreasonable," he said.

Ukraine, according to this logic, would be responsible for Minsk's failure. Russia, therefore, would be off the

hook, and sanctions could be lifted. "My sense is that the latter is more likely than the former," leaving the

Donbass conflict in a deep freeze, Frolov concluded.

But there are already signs that Moscow is abandoning the Donbass rebels in order to bring an end to the

conflict and Western sanctions. A pro-rebel activist, Vladimir Garnachuk, wrote on his Facebook page Tuesday

evening that the Donbass project has lost momentum.

"Already no one is interested in what people there fought and died for. We lost this war. And the bitter

heartburn of this loss will be released in the near future," Garnachuk concluded.

Timothy Ash: Is Ukraine-Russian peace deal brewing behind the scenes?

Kyiv Post, January 18, 2016

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/timothy-ash-is-ukraine-russian-peace-deal-brewing-

behind-the-scenes-406166.html

Something significant might be happening in the Ukraine peace process.

First, we had the appointment of Boris Gryzlov, a real Kremlin heavyweight as Moscow’s representative to

peace talks. One read is that the appointment of a serious Kremlin insider to such a role suggests that Russian

President Vladimir Putin is now willing to seriously negotiate towards some kind of settlement, which might just

be acceptable to Kyiv – rather than the previous policy which seemed to be to demand concessions which

were never really deliverable in Kyiv, and which were just meant to destabilize domestic politics in Ukraine, or

to undermine the security situation and macro stability and financing with it.

Second, President Petro Poroshenko last week spoke about securing control over Ukraine’s borders again this

year – with some suggesting that he would not have made this claim unless he thought there was a reasonable

chance of delivering on it.

Third, the U.S. assistant secretary of state, Victory Nuland, had a meeting late last week in the Russian

enclave of Kaliningrad, with Vladislav Surkov, another close adviser to Putin. The session was described as a

“brainstorming” session over possible resolutions over the crisis in Ukraine, and generally feedback from both

sides was that the discussions were “constructive.” U.S. officials also spoke about the prospect of sanctions on

Ukraine over Donbas being relieved if they see Minsk implementation – albeit retaining those over Crimea.

Fourth, French and German envoys to the Ukrainian “Normandy” peace process are due in Kyiv this week for

high-level discussions.

Fifth, Russia seems to be holding back from pursuing the nuclear, legal, card over the $3 billion in monies lent

to the former Yanukovych regime, due in December, but now in effect in default.

Now both sides still seem to be maneuvering for position – e.g. with Russia’s imposition of a transit ban on

Ukrainian exports to Kazakhstan, and Ukraine’s decision to hike gas transit fees on Russian gas transit to

Europe – the latter bringing a tripling of the tariff, and hitting Russian when it is already smarting over the drop

in oil prices. But we have consistently seen some escalation by the sides in the run up to key negotiations, and

it might be the same this time around.

So why the sudden move on the part of Moscow to deal?

First, I think what is clear is that Russia is now facing a much more difficult economic outlook than even a few

months ago. The drop in oil prices over the past month, amid the Saudi-Iran schism, seems to have been the

game-changer for Moscow – and survival of the regime seems to now be the name of the game (or at least

there is serious concern how long Russia’s balance sheet can hold up to ensure social stability).

Remember, only a month ago the budget was being based on the assumption of $50 a barrel average oil

prices, a flat real gross domestic product growth performance, even growth, and the ruble holding at around 63

to the dollar.

Now with oil sub-$30 a barrel, perhaps going lower, but now more likely to stay here or go lower, the Kremlin

seems to have gone into “regime survival” mode.

Imagine, oil at or below the $30 a barrel level likely means a deepening or extension of the recession (minus 2-

3 percent real GDP growth downturn, after 3.5-4 percent loss in 2015), a budget deficit of 5-6 percent of GDP,

the depletion of the Ministry of Finance's’s various reserve funds, and a drop in the ruble to beyond ruble 80 to

the dollar, with unpredictable consequences for consumer and business confidence, capital flight, inflation and

the durability of the banking sector.

GDP has dropped from over $2.1 trillion in 2013 when the crisis over Ukraine started to likely less than $1

trillion this year. This means that per capita GDP has dropped from over $15,000 to just over $7,000. And while

opinion polls still suggest strong popular support for the Putin regime, experience suggests that they do not

take this for granted, and rather are very sensitive to the potential for social and political unrest – and colored

revolutions.

Recent bans on Russian tourist visits to Turkey and Egypt will at least limit the potential for Russia’s middle

and skilled working classes to realise just how far their foreign spending power has been crushed. But

eventually Russians will realise that they are in fact a lot poorer, and the Putin Potemkim village was not built

on very much.

Second, and related therein I think there is recognition by Moscow that the period of high oil and commodity

prices (2000-2013) is gone, and that the Saudi-Iran shism is likely now to usher in an extended period of low oil

prices and hence a much more challenging outlook for Russia – I think only a few weeks back Russian policy

makers were overly sanguine over a speedy “bounce-back” in oil prices, and perhaps were surprised by the

fact that Moscow’s recent Syrian intervention failed to have much impact in terms of oil prices or leverage

extracted for potential concessions over Ukraine. There is now new realism in Moscow over likely oil price

trends, what this means for the Russian economy and the social and political risks now building domestically.

So I think the willingness to partake in high-risk foreign adventures, such as in Ukraine, is now moderating.

Third, recognition that Western sanctions against Russia are working after all – and despite all the skepticism

in the West and elsewhere that they were pointless.

True, they may not have been the main factor forcing Moscow back to the negotiating table over Ukraine (oil

was), but they have made a brutally difficult economic situation for Russia – because of low oil prices – that

much more painful, arguably now to breaking point. So faced by a now acutely difficult domestic economic

situation, Moscow is desperate for some light relief – and does not want to be seen as still being in the

sanctions bad boy corner, while Iran has been let out of detention.

Fourth, perhaps recognition that Moscow’s policy towards Ukraine has essentially failed – Putin might have

secured Crimea, but at the price of the loss of the rest of Ukraine.

The military option largely failed In Donbas – as Moscow was unwilling to deploy the required massive military

deployment to ensure victory and to engage in total war, while the Ukrainians proved willing to fight, and as

time goes by their capability to defend Ukraine (they don’t need an offensive capability) is growing, taking the

military option off the table for Moscow in effect.

Meanwhile, other efforts to extract leverage by Moscow – including the energy, debt and trade accounts are all

weakening over time.

In energy Ukraine has cut imports from Russia – in gas to near zero, while low oil and energy prices reduce

Russia’s leverage further.

The trade channel has similarly been cut off for Moscow, by the collapse in Russia-Ukraine trade over the past

2-3 years, and Russia’s efforts to impose a transit ban is now viewed as somewhat desperate, and trade/transit

bans now threaten to hurt Russia more by threatening key supplies of military inputs.

Even the debt-default channel has been nullified by the private sector restructuring, provision of International

Monetary Fund financing, leaving Moscow now with the prospect of a long-drawn out, and still possibly fruitless

legal battle over the $3 billion in Eurobonds lent to the former Viktor Yanukovych regime.

The harder that Moscow now presses Ukraine in the trade, economy, debt and energy fields, the more

independent of Russia Ukraine becomes, and the weaker foothold that Russia will have for the future in

Ukraine. Thus having lost the battle for “heart and minds” in Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea and the

military intervention in Donbas, there will be little reason for Ukrainians to economically interact with Russia –

and even more to develop other economic relationships Westwards.

Fifth, there is perhaps a final hope that the best way to keep Moscow’s options open now in Ukraine is to adopt

a less confrontational approach and to assume that Ukrainian politicians revert to script over the past 20 years

and self-destruct under their own momentum.

Reviewing the above the question is still whether Russia’s long-term strategic objectives towards Ukraine have

changed – i.e. to bring it back within its sphere of influence – but in the short term Moscow seems to be

signaling a desire to compromise, and to deal.

The question then is how far it is willing to back down over issues stalling Minsk II implementation.

For the US, the key issue remains as Poroshenko says, control over its borders, which for Russia would mean

cutting off military supplies/resupply to the (separatist) regimes, and the potential that these authorities could

collapse when cut from support lines to Moscow.

Ideally Moscow still seems to be pushing for assurances over some form of enhanced autonomy (Kosovo-

style) or a federal-style solution – which are still clearly unacceptable to Kyiv.

But importantly, Moscow seems to be willing to deal – and this was likely the topic of discussion for

Nuland/Surkov, and also for Boris Gryzlov in his recent trip to Kyiv. The question will be how far Poroshenko

wants to push Moscow at this stage, and will the West be cajoling him along to accept a compromise which still

might be difficult for him to sell back home, and could still destabilize domestic politics in Ukraine. Many in

Ukraine would be nervous over the speedy return of (Russian-controlled territories in the Donbas ) to Ukrainian

control over fear that they could act either as a Trojan horse within Ukraine, and/or provide a huge drain again

on an already weak state.

Cheap oil roils ruble, but Russia bears the pain

By Fred Weir

Christian Science Monitor, January 20, 2016

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2016/0120/Cheap-oil-roils-ruble-but-Russia-bears-the-pain

Russia's beleaguered ruble fell to an all-time low of over 80 per dollar Wednesday. Wags were quick to note

that it will soon meet Vladimir Putin's stratospheric public approval ratings, but going in the opposite direction.

This strange juxtaposition, of Mr. Putin's apparently unshakable popularity against the background of economic

pressures that even he admits are growing worse by the day, has a lot of pundits scratching their heads in

confusion.

The plunging ruble is being driven down by global prices for Russia's main export, oil, that have fallen to 12-

year lows. That's well beneath the Kremlin's own worst-case predictions of $50 per barrel just a few months

ago; some predict government's main revenue generator may fall to $20 or lower, throwing the state budget

into complete disarray. Social spending faces across-the-board cuts of 10 percent this year – with

parliamentary elections due in September – which threatens to hit Putin's electoral base particularly hard.

Recommended: Sochi, Soviets, and czars: How much do you know about Russia?

Russia's economy shrank by almost 4 percent last year, and predictions that it might return to modest growth

this year have been shelved. Consumers were hammered last year by 13 percent inflation – which many say is

much higher for food, transport, and other basic necessities – while business investment has virtually stalled

amid double-digit interest rates.

Yet well over a year into Russia's worst economic recession since the aftermath of the 2008 global financial

crash, there are still no signs of panic in Russian streets, supermarkets, or even currency exchanges.

Though public opinion polls show most Russians are acutely aware of the worsening economic situation and

more than half expect harder times are coming, public approval of Putin's job performance has remained well

over 80 percent through the economic tumult of the past year. And Putin himself remains confident. He even

joked about the country's economy woes at his annual press conference last month.

A few rumblings of discontent have been noted, including a brief truckers' revolt late last year against a new

road tax, and pensioner protests this week in the Olympic city of Sochi over cancellation of free public transport

for senior citizens.

But most experts doubt Russia will see mass protests this year, even amid an increasingly dismal economic

environment.

One explanation offered by pundits is that Russians have been distracted by military successes such as the

annexation of Crimea and the ongoing air war in Syria – amplified by cheerleading Russian media coverage –

which has led most of the population to grudgingly accept lower living standards in exchange for renewed great

power status on the international stage.

Others, however, argue that the Western world views Russia through a distorting lens that registers only the

bad news and fails to note the resilience of the country's economy in the face of what looks to outsiders like a

perfect storm of trouble, including plunging oil prices, Western sanctions, and a significant fall in trade with

China.

These experts point out that Russian oil production actually hit record highs in 2015 and that Russia is well

placed to survive the current slump in oil prices, since it enjoys some of the world's lowest production costs –

which keep going down as the ruble falls. The sliding ruble also benefits other Russian commodity exporters,

such as steel, aluminum, diamonds, and chemicals.

"Russia is dealing with this crisis; it is an opportunity for restructuring; it is an opportunity to reduce state

involvement because of privatizations, so it is a situation that is controllable," Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the

government-created Russian Direct Investment Fund told journalists at the annual Davos World Economic

Forum in Switzerland this week.

Seeking Asylum In Ukraine, Russian Dissidents Get Cold Shoulder

By Claire Bigg and Tetiana Iakubovych

RFE/RL, January 20, 2016

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-russian-dissidents-find-no-asylum/27499333.html

When Russian psychologist Pyotr Lyubchenkov started receiving telephone threats and was detained by the

police for 10 days after posting several online comments denouncing Moscow's support of separatists in

eastern Ukraine, he knew it was time to leave.

In June 2014, he fled Russia for what he thought would be a better, safer life in Ukraine.

But a year and a half later, his successive applications for political asylum have all been rejected and the

Ukrainian authorities are now seeking to extradite him to Russia.

Lyubchenkov, who faces prison on extremism charges in his home country, has a word of warning for other

embattled Russian opposition activists. "I strongly advise them against traveling to Ukraine and asking for

political asylum," he said in a telephone interview from Odesa. "If you are in danger, you had better ask

another country. Ukraine is not a safe place for refugees from Russia.

Amid a deepening Kremlin crackdown on dissent, more than 200 Russians who have fallen afoul of the

authorities in their country have fled to Ukraine since the beginning of 2014, according to the Ukrainian State

Migration Service.

Only a handful have been granted political asylum or other forms of protection by Ukrainian authorities.

For the rest, the apparent freedoms gained since the pro-democracy Maidan protests in Kyiv toppled Ukraine's

Moscow-backed President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014 remain elusive.

Ukraine's migration service insists that its screening procedure for asylum applications is fair and impartial.

"We are open," spokesman Serhiy Hunko told RFE/RL. "If it is the applicant’s wish, we are ready to consider

each case together with the United Nations' refugee agency and human rights organizations, and to listen to

the opinion of independent experts."

Some local rights groups are nonetheless alarmed by the massive legal hurdles facing Russian political

emigres in Ukraine. "It is unacceptable to not provide asylum for people facing persecution for peaceful

opposition activities in their own country," the Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group said last week on its

website.

"Incredibly, given the ongoing imprisonment of [Nadia] Savchenko, [Oleh] Sentsov, Oleksandr Kolchenko, and

other Ukrainians, as well as long sentences passed on Russians for peaceful protest, the Migration Service is

still claiming that Russia is a democratic country to which activists can be returned," it added.

Prisoner Of Conscience

Russian opposition activist Vyacheslav Martynov, who fled to the northeastern city of Kharkiv in 2014, is

among the lucky few. After a protracted legal battle, he was finally granted special protection by Ukrainian

authorities several weeks ago.

Martynov landed in hot water with Russian authorities after attempting to organize a rally demanding broader

autonomy for the part of southern Russia known as the Kuban together with Lyubchenkov and a third activist,

Darya Polyudova.

The three were briefly detained, placed on a terrorist watch list, and charged with extremism.

Polyudova, who chose to stay in Russia, was sentenced to two years in prison in December 2015 on charges

of "calling for Russia's territorial integrity infringement" -- a sentence that sparked an outcry from rights groups

around the world.

Russia's leading Russian rights organization, Memorial, has since declared Polyudova a prisoner of

conscience.

If sent back to Russia, Lyubchenkov risks a similar fate.

Several weeks ago, Russian prosecutors officially asked Ukraine to extradite him at the behest of Russia's

Federal Security Service (FSB).

He says he is now hiding from prosecutors in Odesa, who issued a warrant for his arrest in mid-December.

"Odesa prosecutors are trying to arrest me and hand me over to Russia because I called for the Kuban to join

Ukraine," he said. "This is how absurd the situation is."

Like Martynov, Lyubchenkov has won several court appeals overturning earlier decisions by migration

authorities to deny him political asylum. But under Ukrainian law, judges cannot force migration authorities to

deliver asylum status, only to reconsider applications.

Olga Kurnosova, another Russian opposition activist who is trying to rebuild her life in Ukraine, attributes the

Migration Service's reluctance to help Kremlin critics to what she says is the large number of Moscow

sympathizers still serving in its ranks since Yanukovych's ouster.

"The migration service has not undergone any lustration," she said. "People there already served under

Yanukovych and they are doing their jobs dishonestly, just like they did under Yanukovych."

Chechnya leader calls for war on Putin's critics

By Maria Antonova

AFP, January 19, 2016

http://news.yahoo.com/chechnya-leader-kadyrov-calls-war-putins-critics-132743392.html

The strongman leader of Russia's Chechnya region, Ramzan Kadyrov, on Tuesday threatened to eradicate

"enemy" opposition in Russia, raising more concerns about the fate of Kremlin critics and independent media

in the country.

Kadyrov, who rules with an iron grip the North Caucasus region that was the scene of two separatist wars,

penned a lengthy diatribe in pro-Kremlin daily Izvestiya against the critics of President Vladimir Putin, calling

them a "gang of jackals" who "dream of destroying our state."

"We will save Russia if we don't spare the enemy," Kadyrov wrote, calling himself "Putin's foot soldier" and

offering to put the opposition in a Chechen asylum where "there won't be a shortage of injections."

The latest broadside by former rebel Kadyrov -- accused by human rights groups of overseeing torture,

extrajudicial executions and corruption -- came after he last week called liberal independent media "enemies of

Russia" that seek to sow "chaos" in the Caucasus and beyond.

The remarks caused a furore and several people publicly criticised Kadyrov, with one local lawmaker in

Siberia, Konstantin Senchenko, dubbing him "the shame of Russia" for amassing vast personal wealth and

abusing his political post.

Senchenko later apologised, writing that he "talked to some Chechen people and became convinced in the

authority of the leader of Chechnya," in comments that were interpreted by many as a thinly-veiled

announcement that he had received threats on his life.

Kadyrov's outbursts have sparked an online debate, with supporters responding to the "shame of Russia" jibe

with the hashtag "Kadyrov is the pride of Russia."

"The time has come when the Motherland needs wise and principled decisions" to reign in its enemies, wrote

the speaker of Chechnya's parliament, Magomed Daudov, listing names of several journalists, critics and rights

activists.

- Critics silenced -

The editor of liberal Echo of Moscow radio, which has been targeted by Kadyrov's recent rhetoric, said he is

seeking to beef up security at the station.

Several people who have challenged Kadyrov's grip on power have been killed in the past, including

investigative reporter Anna Politkovskaya and rights activist Natalia Estemirova.

Chechens are also thought to be behind the murder of opposition critic Boris Nemtsov, who was gunned down

last February next to the Kremlin. Two suspects are reportedly linked to an armed squad answerable to

Kadyrov.

Residents of the region that dare to criticise Kadyrov face a tough response, with one woman publicly berated

by Kadyrov on local television for appealing an additional tax Chechen authorities take out of salaries.

After Russia's opposition on Monday announced a planned rally in memory of Nemtsov, Chechen officials said

that they had received many requests to hold a rally in support of Kadyrov and against the "fifth column."

Russian independent media questioned Kadyrov's aggressive criticism, wondering whether he has been

sanctioned by the Kremlin or is playing his own game to secure his position amid an economic crisis and

ahead of legislative elections this year.

"Regardless of the reasons for the Chechen leader's media activity, it's easy to see the gravity of its

consequences," wrote Vedomosti daily, warning that some supporters may view his article as a call for action.

One figure criticised by Kadyrov, opposition leader Alexei Navalny, said the Chechen strongman simply stirs

conflict to convince Moscow he is in control.

"Kadyrov is interested in the growth of anti-Chechen attitudes in the country," he wrote Tuesday. "This creates

instability and brings back memories of war, making his role unique."

The rise of an ultra-Orthodox Ukrainian Jew

AFP, January 17, 2016

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4753900,00.html

Asher Tcherkasski’s life revolved around the traditions of Orthodox Judaism and raising three children to

observe these traditions. But the war in eastern Ukraine changed all that.

Asher joined a battalion of pro-Ukrainian volunteers battling pro-Russian rebels at the start of the conflict. With

his long beard and his glasses, he quickly became one of the most recognizable figures of the conflict, which

enabled him to gain popularity and enter politics.

A native of Feodosia, an historic city in the southeast of the Crimean Peninsula, the 45-year-old who made his

living by doing odd jobs did not hesitate for a second to abandon the peninsula after its annexation by Moscow

in March 2014, considering that the new status of Crimea was "not in line" with his convictions.

He went to Dnipropetrovsk, the bastion of the Jewish community in east-central Ukraine, where he joined the

ranks of the Dnipro battalion which, as of April 2014, became focused on fighting the separatists.

The Dnipro battalion was created by Igor Kolomoïski, a Ukrainian oligarch with a tarnished reputation, know for

using questionable methods. Kolomoïski, also Jewish, was at one time the governor of the Dnipropetrovsk

region, the heart of his financial empire.

"I have to protect my children”, Asher explained regarding his commitment. "If the territorial integrity of your

country is at stake you must defend it."

And countering statements by pro-Russian separatists to the effect that the volunteer pro-Ukrainian battalions

are composed of "fascists", he affirms that he has never encountered anti-Semitism in his unit.

"We act as a single unit, without any suspicion towards one another," he told AFP, but admitted that observing

his religious traditions and eating kosher was hard on the battlefield. "Russia attacked Ukraine. This is a real

war," asserts Asher, referring to the conflict in the east of the country that has left more than 9,000 dead.

A link to the nations

Asher Cherkassky became famous in Ukraine after a video was broadcast in late 2014 showing him in

camouflaged uniform on the front line. With his very long beard, his look clashed with that of the other fighters.

"Cherkassky is one of the symbols of the new Ukraine, he is a link to the nations who see Ukraine as their

motherland," said a local journalist, Dmytro Rozmeritsa, to AFP.

According to the leaders of Ukraine’s Jewish leaders, the Ukrainian Jewish communities have they have

mainly supported their country against the pro-Russian insurgency.

"We are all Ukrainian citizens and we have to fight for our country," declared Yosef Zissels, President of the

Association of Jewish organizations and communities of Ukraine. However, "the stature of Asher Tcherkasski

is not really typical," he acknowledges.

Few Orthodox Jews have joined the fight, many of them avoiding, as everywhere in the world, any military

service which could get in the way of their religious practices.

Corruption, the new enemy

After several cease-fires went into effect in eastern Ukraine, the intensity of fighting has dropped significantly,

though sporadic incidents still occur regularly along the front line.

And Asher Tcherkasski has abandoned the fight. His commitment and his fame allowed him to win a seat in

Dnipropetrovsk’s municipal council, in the process beating powerful businessmen and local politicals.

He now fights another enemy: corruption. "We can stop these things," he said.

"The money will not go into the pockets of bureaucrats but to the city’s social programs to improve quality of

life," he added.

Although still a member of the Dnipro battalion, his new mission has become his priority. "If I feel that military

service prevents me from being an effective elected official, I'd rather stay in this position as I believe I can

accomplish more in this capacity," he concluded.

By Bread Alone: Why Poor Russians Aren't Protesting

By Andrei Kolesnikov

Carnegie Moscow Center, January 18, 2016

http://carnegie.ru/commentary/?fa=62491&mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRousq%2FIZKXonjHpfsX54%2B

gqUaGzlMI%2F0ER3fOvrPUfGjI4JS8drI%2BSLDwEYGJlv6SgFSrnAMbBwzLgFWhI%3D

Russians are tightening their belts and forgoing luxuries to cope with the new economic crisis. But they are

conditioned to avoid protest. The government has little to fear, but the result is systemic poverty and economic

stagnation.

Wherever Russians eat, they always look for the bread on the table. Russia has a cultural stereotype of bread

as something of great value and the stuff of life. Yet, in reality, the cult of bread—and the Russian superstition

against wasting it or throwing it out—is a historical consequence of decades of hunger.

As Russia's economy falls on hard times, a significant segment of the Russian population is turning again to

subsistence on bread. This doesn’t affect the entire population, just those who have long been mired in poverty

and those in the lower middle class who are now joining them. Today, Russia’s social pyramid looks a lot more

like a drainpipe than a trampoline.

These people must rely on what historian Oleg Khlevniuk calls an old Russian combination of bread, potatoes,

and vodka. Khlevniuk's triad was the nutritional core during the Stalin years and remained so even in later,

somewhat more prosperous years.

The third product, vodka, has persisted as a universal currency (one could call it a hard currency, despite its

liquid state). It remains the easiest way to escape reality, and a source of revenue for the state budget. It says

a lot about the state of Russia that official vodka output grew at a staggering rate in the Stalin era, from 30

million deciliters in 1924–1925, to 81 million deciliters in 1952.

Russians’ subsistence on the breadline acts as a substitute for more radical action, such as taking to the

streets in political protest.

Natalia Zubarevich, an expert in economic geography, argues that as the Russian periphery tries to adjust to

the economic crisis, people living there will grow dependent on subsistence farming (plus foraging for berries,

mushrooms, and nuts).

At the same time, the revenue potential of traditional sources of extra income—moonlighting, seasonal work,

construction gigs, and the like—is falling because the downturn is affecting the informal economy as well as

the formal one.

This economic crisis also has a new element that makes it more challenging than previous crises: a palpable

drop in the real value of pensions. Economist Tatyana Maleva estimates that half of the Russian population

depends heavily on pensions. They are the sole source of stable income not just for the pensioners

themselves, but often for entire households they live in.

Maleva also highlights another further problem for Russia that is unknown in developed countries: a high

number of poor people are keeping their jobs, rather than slipping into unemployment. The current crisis is

replicating the peculiar model of the Russian labor market, where economic misfortune leads not to rising

unemployment and structural adjustments, but to declining salaries and shrinking workdays (and workweeks).

Moreover, as Marina Krasilnikova of the Levada Center notes, we are seeing an "anchoring of poverty."

Households are increasingly focusing on everyday consumption and key priorities, postponing major

purchases, transitioning to cheaper products, and spending money primarily on food and clothing.

People are adapting to the current crisis (the onset of which caught them off guard as badly as it did the

government) by resorting to survival tactics, a more primitive lifestyle, reduced expectations of oneself and the

surrounding world, and declining labor productivity.

In November 2015, the index of positive consumer sentiments, as calculated by the independent Levada

polling center, dropped to 64 percent of its record high it reached in March 2008. In a survey conducted in the

same month, two thirds of respondents said they expected the economic crisis to last more than two years.

The same proportion said they expected annual inflation to reach 30 percent. (It was just 13 percent in 2015.)

This begs the question of how the Russian public, which is now properly aware of the full extent of the crisis,

will react in 2016.

Naturally, the government will seek to avoid mass protests by fighting the illusory "fifth columns" of alleged

would-be revolutionaries, trying to distract the public with all sorts of foreign conflicts, especially trade wars and

information campaigns against Russia's alleged enemies.

And yet, even though the crisis is all too reminiscent of the rabbit hole in Alice in Wonderland and is likely to

get only deeper, the Russian government's fears of a "color revolution" such as the one that took place in

Ukraine are groundless.

Instead, ordinary people will tighten their belts, as they did under the Soviet regime. As the average Russian

turns to bread, potatoes, and vodka (and occasionally berries, mushrooms, and nuts), he will go into standby

mode, adapting to the “new normal.” He will pare down his expectations of life, of the government, and of

everything else, as well as reduce any personal consumption.

Indeed, Krasilnikova believes that the average Russian actively hopes for the absence of major changes.

This scenario fits the analysis of sociologist Seymour Lipset, who argued that citizens make political demands

and permit themselves the luxury of analyzing political situation only once they have reached a certain level of

well-being. Lipset's hypothesis was borne out by the nature of Russia's last major opposition protests in 2011–

2012, led by middle-class Russians who benefited from the prosperity of the preceding decade.

The Russian government also benefits from the fact that most of the population tends to view the state as the

provider of symbolic benefits, such as the takeover of Crimea, rather than as a source of tangible benefits or

fair arbitration. Russians have got used to surviving without the government's intervention, and even learned to

endure its “regulations.”

The “Putin stability” which was the much-heralded achievement of the president’s first two terms in office, has

given way to negative stabilization. This new, suffocating stability is endangering the development and mindset

of a country that is turning again figuratively—and sometimes literally—to its traditional diet of bread and

potatoes.