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NDE’s Role in a Flat Earth SocietyDon E. Bray, Ph. D., P. E.

Don E. Bray, Inc.

P. O. Box 10315

College Station, Texas USA 77842-0315

V/F 979-693-9301 Cell 979-492-9534

Email debray1@brayengr.com

http://brayengr.com

ICPIIT X Conference, Houston, Texas 20-23 June 2007 ASNT

Keynote Address

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Driving Forces For NDE

• There is Bad Stuff out there!

• No one is going to tell us where it is.

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Opportunities in NDE

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Worldwide NDE Market 1990’s

Industry % Distribution

Aerospace 26

Automotive 15

Metals 15

Utilities 14

Petrochemical 10

Others 20

Source: Wells, C. D., Insight, 36. 1994

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Drivers for NDE Growth• Population growth - energy, aircraft, roads, housing, medical, construction products.

• Extended life for equipment.

• Demand for less waste and cleaner environment.

• Remanufactured industrial components.

• Better quality control in manufactured goods.

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Worldwide Factors Driving NDE Growth

Population projections in billions of people

Country 2006 2025 2050

China 1.3 1.4 1.4

India 1.1 1.4 1.8

United States .30 .35 .42

Source World Almanac 2007

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Major Energy Consumers 2004 Quadrillion Btu

China 59.57

India 15.42

United States 100.41

Source World Almanac 2007

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The opportunity for us is …..

in the fact that all of this growth places increased demands on all of the sectors

where NDE is important.

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Some Local History

1960’s Houston section of ASNT met at the Carousel Motor Inn, across from Gulfgate Mall.

Members mostly from petrochemical, pipeline, utility, railroad industries.

Common equipment names included, Sperry, Automation Industries, Magnaflux, Krautkramer, Branson, Eastman Kodak, Agfa, DuPont

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Demographics of ASNT

1966 1978 2007

Tech Council - Methods 8 9

Tech Council - Industry Div.

8 2

Materials Evaluation Advertisers

30 13 19

Repeat Advertisers from previous

3 1

Individual Members >9,000 8920

Source: Materials Evaluation

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What Changed from 1966 to 2007

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Trends to 2007

• Increasing competition from US organizations.

• Increasing number of non-US organizations

•Increasing number of non-US manufacturers of NDE equipment.

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hence, the World is Flattening

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Definition of New Flat Earth

• Instantaneous voice and data communications

• Anywhere on Earth

• Cheap

• Reliable

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The real game changing events!

• Engineering colleges in India and China and Singapore are turning out large numbers of well educated engineers.

• Colleges and universities in these countries are involved in research that is keeping their best graduates at home.

• The US no longer has the supply of top graduate students from India and China.

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Implications …….• NDE planning and execution in the world

market may be performed by anyone who conforms to the customer’s criteria.

• Applicable Codes and Standards will be whatever the customer specifies.

• Personnel qualifications will be what is dictated by the chosen Code & Standard.

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more implications

• NDE Equipment may be supplied from anywhere on the globe.

• Inspection equipment may be designed by anyone on the globe.

• Inspection crews may be from anywhere on the globe.

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Factors Governing New World NDE

• The laws of physics apply, equally everywhere.• Social and business practices may vary locally.• Economic wealth, natural and resources may vary

locally.• Education may vary locally• Codes and Standards, Personnel Qualifications

and Technical Specs may vary locally.

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How do we as individuals and as companies cope with this

new order?

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Consider the Following

Topic Local Global

Definition of a defect

Type of inspection

Frequency of inspection

Codes & Standard

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And….

Topic Local Global

Availability of personnel

Salaries of personnel

Personnel qualifications

Evaluation of results

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Further….

Topic Local Global

Cost of inspection

Overall quality of the inspection

Accountability of the inspection

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Project to the future…….

•Use 1960’s and 2007 as reference points.

•Where will you as an individual and your company be in 45 years?

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Menu of applicable topics ….• Data analysis techniques

• Design of automated inspection systems.

• Material behavior prediction, i.e. fatigue and fracture.

• Inspectability of the material and the design.

• Revisions in Codes and Standards and Personnel Qualifications

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Predicted Definition of Future NDE jobs

• More robotics

• More remote data analysis

• Increased importance of engineering in NDE (Level III).

• Decreased value of Level I and Level II inspectors

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For an exciting future in NDE

• Increase your education level, continually.

• ___• ___• ___

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Another view…...

“The world is more like it is today than it ever has been

before.”

An anonymous Presidential candidate in the 70’s expressing his uncertainty about the future.

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• America has been successful in the past because we have encouraged dreams which led to innovation.

• In the future we must maintain that ability to dream while competing with other countries that dare to do the same.

Conclusions