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Near-Term Solutions for Mitigation of Carbon Dioxide CARB Symposium March 5, 2007. Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission (916) 654-4930 [email protected] http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html or just Google “Art Rosenfeld”. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Near-Term Solutions for Mitigation of Carbon Dioxide
CARB SymposiumMarch 5, 2007
Arthur H. Rosenfeld, CommissionerCalifornia Energy Commission
(916) [email protected]
http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html
or just Google “Art Rosenfeld”
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Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s C
arb
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Dio
xid
e E
qu
iva
len
t
Historical
Projected Business as Usual
To Meet AB 32 Goal
CO2 Emissions in California: Historical and Projected
+1.2%/yr
-0.9%/yr
4
Energy Intensity in the United States 1949 - 2005
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tho
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an
d B
tu/$
(in
$2
00
0) If intensity dropped at pre-1973 rate of 0.4%/year
Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1%/year)
$ 1 T
$1.7T
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Energy Consumption in the United States 1949 - 2005
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25
50
75
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Qu
ads/
Yea
r
$ 1.7 Trillion
$ 1.0 Trillion
New Physical Supply = 25 Q
Avoided Supply = 70 Quads in 2005
If E/GDP had dropped 0.4% per year
Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1% per year)
70 Quads per year saved or avoided corresponds to 1 Billion cars off the road
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Environmental Equivalent of Avoiding 70 Quads
70 Quads = 33 Mbod (Million barrels of oil per day)
= 40% of World oil production of 80 Mbod
70 Quads = 1 Billion cars off the road, impressive since there are only 600 million cars on the road
7
How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency?
Easiest to tease out is cars
– In the early 1970s, only 14 miles per gallons
– Now about 21 miles per gallon
– If still at 14 mpg, we’d consume 75 billion gallons more and pay $225 Billion more at 2006 prices
– But we still pay $450 Billion per year
– If California wins the ”Pavley” suit, and it is implemented nationwide, we’ll save another $150 Billion per year
Commercial Aviation improvements save another $50 Billion per year Appliances and Buildings are more complex
– We must sort out true efficiency gains vs. structural changes (from smokestack to service economy).
8
How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency (cont’d)?
Some examples of estimated savings in 2006 based on 1974 efficiencies minus 2006 efficiencies
Beginning in 2007 in California, reduction of “vampire” or stand-by losses
– This will save $10 Billion when finally implemented, nation-wide
Out of a total $700 Billion, a crude summary is that 1/3 is structural, 1/3 is from transportation, and 1/3 from buildings and industry.
Billion $
Space Heating 40Air Conditioning 30Refrigerators 15Fluorescent Tube Lamps 5Compact Fluorescent Lamps 5Total 95
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Index (1972 = 1.00) of U.S. Energy Use, GDP, Energy Intensity and Carbon Dioxidelast 10-year CO2 growth = 1.3% per year
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e/gdp
quads
gdp
CO2 (combustion)1.37
2.71
1.33 (est.)
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Carbon Dioxide Intensity and Per Capita CO2 Emissions -- 2001 (Fossil Fuel Combustion Only)
0.00
5.00
10.00
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25.00
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
intensity (tons of CO2 per 2000 US Dollar)
To
ns
of
CO
2 p
er p
erso
n
Canada Australia
S. Korea
California
Mexico
United States
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
New Zealand
Switzerland
Japan
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Energy Intensity -- California and the United States
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2019
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year
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nsi
ty (
tho
usa
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Btu
s p
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mea
sure
d in
yea
r 20
00 $
)
US down to 54% of 1973 intensity
California down to 46% of 1973 intensity
54%
46%
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Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person) (2005 to 2008 are forecast data)
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United States
∆= 4,000kWh/yr
= $110/capita
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2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
MP
G C
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Japan
EU
China
Canada California (Pavley)
US (1) dotted lines denote proposed standards(2) MPG = miles per gallon
Australia
~
Comparison of Fuel Economy – Passenger Vehicles
?
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Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards
0
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1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
GW
h/y
ear
Appliance Standards
Building Standards
Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of
~1% of electric bill
~18% of Annual Electricity Use in IOU areas in 200320 MtCO2
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California Must Expand CEC Staff for Standards
California spends ~$1B/year on EE and Renewables to reduce electricity use by ~1%/year,
But CEC Standards Office has only 14 staff ($2M/year) to accelerate building and appliance standards, and thus reduce use by ~1/2%/year.
16
Figure 8Comparison of EE Program Costs to Supply Generation Costs
0.029
0.058
0.118
0.167
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Average Cost of EE Programsfor 2000-2004
Base Load Generation Shoulder Generation Peak Generation
$/kW
h
Demand
Supply Options
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California IOU’s Investment in Energy Efficiency
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$1,00019
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ions
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$200
2 pe
r Y
ear
Forecast
Profits decoupled from sales
Performance Incentives
Market Restructuring
Crisis
IRP2% of 2004
IOU Electric Revenues
Public Goods Charges
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What about Public Utilities – the Other 25% ?
Existing law already requires that IOU electric and gas utilities regulated by the CPUC shall:
1. Meet resource needs through all available energy efficiency and demand reduction resources that are cost-effective, reliable, and feasible and
2. Set energy efficiency goals
AB 2021 (Levine, 2006) now requires that Public Utilities shall follow similar programs and goals, supervised by the CEC
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Non-Combustion (net)15%
Industry Petroleum
8%
Transportation Petroleum
41%
Buildings natural gas7%
Industry electricity
6%
Industry natural gas7%
Buildings electricity
16%
22%
14%
Emissions of CO2 in California by End Use in 2004
Total Emissions = 490 Million metric tons CO2 equivalent
Source: Energy Efficiency in California and the United States -- Chang, Rosenfeld, McAuliffe
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2007publications/CEC-999-2007-007/CEC-999-2007-007.PDF
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1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Mil
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n M
etri
c T
on
s C
arb
on
Dio
xid
e E
qu
iva
len
t
Historical
Projected Business as Usual
To Meet AB 32 Goal
CO2 Emissions in California: Historical and Projected
+1.2%/yr
-0.9%/yr
21
Energy Efficiency, 17%
Renewable Energy, 10%
Cleaner Power Plants, 9%
Clean Cars, 28%
Renewable Fuels, 2%
Smart Growth, 15%
Water Efficiency, 1%
Forestry, 20%
Other Strategies , 4%
Strategies for Meeting California’s CO2 Goals in 2020
Total Reductions = 174 Million metric Tons CO2 equivalent
i.e. 30% of projected 2020 Business As Usual CO2 emissions
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2011 Energy Efficiency Goals for the IOUs
CPUC OIR to implement 2009-2011 energy efficiency goals
– Portfolio development over the next few months
– Should support “significant, bold progress toward measurable market penetration goals”
– Proposed new measures:1. Conversion of general purpose lighting to high efficiency by 2017
2. A specific % of residential construction to exceed 2008 Title 24 by 35% and thereby set new levels for Title 24 updates in 2011
3. A specific % of existing commercial building to improve energy efficiency by 20% (through benchmarking)
4. A specific penetration of 80%-efficient gas water heaters (SEGWHAI) by 2011 and beyond
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Typical
Your Building
Good Practice
Lighting Space Heating
Space Cooling and Ventilation Water Heating
Miscellaneous Not Submetered
0 5 10 15 20
Typical
Your Building
Lighting Retrofit
Good Practice
Electricity End Use Intensity (kWh/ft2-year)
Electricity EUI
Before
After
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Title 20 Appliance Standards
Lighting
– 5% improvement in incandescent lamps already underway
– Eventually, a fleet average of all lighting, measured in lumens/watt• Moving toward very limited use of incandescent bulbs and T-12s
Reductions in Stand-by losses also underway
– Currently running 10% of residential use Clothes washers. In CA, 29% of electr & 30% of nat gas water.
– Less water use leads to reduced energy use
– Department of Energy is considering California petition for waiver of rather weak federal standard
25
Title 24 – Building Standards
White roofs already required in T-24 2005 for ‘flat’ roofs Cool colored roofs will be required in 2008 updates
– Possible utility incentive programs to go beyond colored roof all the way to white
California Solar Initiative. Don’t put expensive PV on a new home which is optimized for relatively cheap grid electricity.
– Rebates will require that new homes beat Title 24 by at least 15%
26
Public Interest Energy Research
Cool colored paints– Not only for use in roofs– But, also on cars
• Reduce fuel use by 2% (of ~100 MtCO2 for gasoline)• Can reduce first costs by reducing AC system size
Working with the EPA to deliver a “benchmark” tools for non-residential buildings called ‘Energy Star Portfolio Manager’– Hand over to utilities for implementation
Hot Dry Air Conditioning Standards– Break up US into three AC climate zones– At no cost, could improve EER up to 20%– Legislation or a waiver is needed though
Super Efficient Gas Hot Water Heater Appliance Initiative-SEGWHAI– Will save >20%
27
From Cool Color Roofs to Cool Color Cars
Toyota experiment (surface temperature 10C = 18F cooler) Ford and Fiat are also working on the technology
28
Replacement Gas Storage Water Heater– Conventional technology: simple but
antiquated design that wastes energy– 85% of water heater sales are replacement
units, 60% of these are emergency replacements
– Current advanced technologies not appropriate for replacement market
SEGWHAI Goals:– 30% increase in efficiency– 70% decrease in NOx
– Cost effective market price, pay back less than 5 years
– Equivalent to standard water heaters for the customer and installing plumber
29
Benefits to California Savings per water heater (over the equipment lifetime):
– 400 - 700 therms– 2.4 – 4.1 metric tons CO2– 13 pounds of NOx
If 50% of existing water heaters in CA are replaced w/ SEGWHAI Tier 1 units: – $154 M in natural gas costs saved each year– 900,000 metric tons of CO2 avoided
each year– 5 M pounds of NOx avoided each year
These emission reductions are valued at more than $30M per year
30
Temperature Rise of Various Materials in SunlightDr. Hashem Akbari, LBNL Heat Island Group
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
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Tem
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e (°
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Galvanized Steel
IR-Refl. Black
Bla
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sph
alt
Sh
ing
le
Red
Cla
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ile
Lt.
Red
Pai
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Lt.
Gre
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ain
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Wh
ite
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hal
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hin
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hal
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Co
at.
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ite
Cem
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Co
at.
Solar Absorptance
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Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight
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Temperature Trends in Downtown Los Angeles
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Potential Savings in LA
Savings for Los Angeles
– Direct, $200M/year
– Indirect, $140M/year
– Smog, $360M/year
– CO2, ~2 MtCO2/year
34
.
This talk available on my web page
Just Google
“Art Rosenfeld”