NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2

8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2

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Economic ProspectsEconomic Prospects

for 2004for 2004--20052005

Secretary Romulo L. NeriNational Economic and Development Authority

17 January 2005


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Outlook for 2004Outlook for 2004(Growth rates, in percent)(Growth rates, in percent)

Q1-Q3 Full Year

Actual As of 22Dec 04

As of 17Jan 05

MTPDPTarget

GDP 6.5 6.1 6.2 4.9 - 5.8

Agri 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.0 - 5.0

Industry 5.2 4.8 5.5 4.4 - 5.2

Services 7.3 7.1 7.1 5.7 - 6.6

Sources: NSCB and NEDA

*as of 17 January 2005


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Growth Indicator: MISSI Value ofGrowth Indicator: MISSI Value ofProduction & SalesProduction & Sales(Growth rate, in percent)(Growth rate, in percent)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1Q03

2Q03

3Q03

4Q03

1Q04

2Q04

3Q04

4Q04

(Oct)

VaPI

VaNet Sales


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-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1 2003 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2004 Q2 Q3 Oct-Nov

Total Exports

Electronics

Agri-based

Mining

Growth Indicator: ExportsGrowth Indicator: Exports(Growth rate, in percent)(Growth rate, in percent)


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Growth Indicator: ImportsGrowth Indicator: Imports(Growth rate, in percent)(Growth rate, in percent)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Q1 2003 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12004 Q2 Q3 Oct

Total ImportsCapital GoodsRaw MaterialsConsumer goods


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Growth Indicator: OFW RemittancesGrowth Indicator: OFW Remittances(Growth rate, in percent)(Growth rate, in percent)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04

(Oct-

Nov)


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Growth Indicator: Volume of TouristGrowth Indicator: Volume of TouristArrivalsArrivals

160000

165000

170000

175000

180000

185000

190000

195000

2003 2004


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Growth Indicator: FDIGrowth Indicator: FDI

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

FY 2002 FY 2003 Q1-Q3 2004

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600Total Approved FDI (P Bil)

FDI Growth (%)


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Growth Indicator: Building PermitsGrowth Indicator: Building Permits(Growth rate, in percent)(Growth rate, in percent)

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

2030

1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04

Value Number


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Fiscal Performance, Emerging FY 2004Fiscal Performance, Emerging FY 2004In billion PesosIn billion Pesos

Emerging Growth Rate

(%)

FY Program

2004

Revenue 695 10.9 676.4

Expenditures 885 7.1 874.2

Deficit

as % of GDP

(190)

(3.9)

(4.9) (197.82)

(4.2)


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Prospects for 2005Prospects for 2005

2005 2005

Assessment asof 17 Jan 05

MTPDP Target

GDP 6.3 5.3 - 6.3

Agriculture 4.2 4.2 - 5.2Industry 7.1 5.4 - 6.4

Services 6.6 5.7- 6.6

*G

rowth rates, in percent*G

rowth rates, in percent


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2005 Growth Drivers2005 Growth Drivers

AgricultureImpact of El Nino will be mild due to governmentinterventions in irrigation and cloud seeding

Support services to increaseproduction/productivity: distribution of HYV and

certified seeds, fingerlings, and bio-agents tocontrol infestation; fertilizer subsidy program(Tipid Abono); rehabilitation of post-harvestfacilities; credit support from Agro-industryModernization Credit and Financing Program

(AMCFP) and GFIs


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2005 Growth Assumptions2005 Growth Assumptions

Agriculture:Palay is projected to grow 3.9 percent in 2005given DAs production target of 15.2 million MT

Corn is projected to grow 9.6 percent given DAscorn production target set at 5.9 million MT

DA and LGUs to jointly fund the subsidy programfor hybrid corn and rice


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IndustryIndustry will be supported by strong growth inconstruction sector with the following majorprojects in 2005:

Northrail

Subic Clark Tarlac RoadSouth Luzon Expressway

Subic Port

Airports of Iloilo, Bacolod, and Cagayan de Oro


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Industry:Exports of services from business processingoutsourcing activities will continue to growat close to 15 percent in 2005

DTI is expecting the country to have 80,000 callcenter agents (or 40,000 seats) in 2005 from35,000 seats in 2004


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Industry:The SC ruling on the constitutionality of theMining Act is expected to revive the miningsector; resumption of operations will boost

the mining sector, while mining explorationswill support the construction and businessservices sectors


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Industry:

Mining production will be boosted by expansionin operations of PASAR and resumption ofoperations in Compostela Valley (Sabina Minesand Apex Mining)DTI reported that Chinese firms are now in talks

with some Philippine companies to revivePhilnico/Nonoc in Surigao del NorteDTI will lead a mission to China to takeadvantage of Chinese firms interest in themining industry


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InflationInflation ProspectsProspects

Inflation is expected to decelerate in 2005 withDecember 2005 inflation down to 5 percent from8.6 percent in December 2004

Dubai oil prices are expected to remain stable in2005 with world demand and world supply in

balance (NEDA forecast assumes $34/barrel Dubaioil price and exchange rate moving in the range ofP55-57/$ or an average of P 56/$)


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Thank YouThank You


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9.5

7.5

4.6

6.5

5.1

6.66.4

9.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Chin Mal Indo Phil S.Kor Taiw Thai Sing

Asian GDP(Q1-Q3 growth rate in %)

Documents

NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2