NERRS Science Collaborative

NERRS Science Collaborative: Climate Change Adaptation Focus

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NERRS Science Collaborative

Special focus area:Climate Change Adaptation Success

Susi Moser, Ph.D.

NERRS Science Collaborative Team Member

Webinar 2 • December 16, 2014

NERRS Science Collaborative

Great Interest Across the System

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Key: • Reserve represented on one of the webinars

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NERRS Science Collaborative

Great Interest from Reserves2 webinars57 sign-ups86% of Reserves6.9% Education Coordinators12.1% Program Managers20.7% CTP Coordinators13.8% Research Coordinators5.2% Stewardship Coordinators17.2% NOAA17.2% Univ. of Mich6.9% Other

NERRS Science Collaborative

Overview

1. Context and Background2. What Does Adaptation Success Look Like?– Simple Question – Complex Answer

3. What Might it Mean for a Reserve?4. Approach to this Focus Area5. A Project Co-Designed6. Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Context and Background• Key Elements of the Science Collaborative– Competitive grants for key research needs

• Collaborative research projects • Science transfer projects• Integrated assessments

– Support for needs identification, collaboration, and end user engagement

– Evaluations– Capacity building– Data management– Special focus on climate change adaptation

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Context and BackgroundFoundation #1 Foundation #2

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

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Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

Successful Adaptation:Key Dimensions of an Elusive Goal

NERRS Science Collaborative

Successful Adaptation to Climate Change in Coastal Environments

West Coast-wide, transdisciplinary research project (2011-14)

Thank YouContext Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

5 Reasons to Think About Adaptation Success

1. Communication and Public Engagement– Communicating hope and

desirable goal to work towards

– Defining a common vision among diverse stakeholders

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Why Think About Adaptation Success?

2. Deliberate planning and decision-making– Setting clear goals, aligning

means and ends (internal consistency)

– Best fit with other policy goals (external consistency)

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Why Think About Adaptation Success?

3. Justification of adaptation expenditures

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Why Think About Adaptation Success?

4. Accountability/good governance

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

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Why Think About Adaptation Success?

5. Support for learning and adaptive management

Source: SCIRO

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

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And Good Reasons NOT to Think About Success

• Political sensitivities• Funding sensitivities• It’s work

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

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What Does Success Look Like?Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

What Does Success Look Like?

“I don’t know many churches that have to put the tide chart on their

Web site” so people know whether they can get to church.”

The Rev. Jennifer Slade, Norfolk, VA

Norfolk, VA

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

What Does Success Look Like?Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

What Does Success Look Like?

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

What Does Success Look Like?Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

What Does Success Look Like?Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

What Does Success Look Like?Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

What Does Success Look Like?Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

What Does Success Look Like?Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

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Some Tough Questions • How much can science help?

• Or is it all subjective and political?

• What is the right scale at which to consider success?

• How and how much do we integrate across sectors? Across scales or levels of government?

• How do we address trade-offs?

• When can we declare success (or not)?

• How should we measure success?

• Who gets to say?

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Dimensions of Adaptation Success

Adaptation Process

• Conduct a “good” assessment and planning process• Continually monitor for adaptation needs

Adaptation Decision-Making• Select a “good”

adaptation option• Make a “good”

adaptation decision

Adaptation Outcomes

• Find adaptation outcomes to be “good”

• Avoid maladaptation

1st wave: 1990s-early 2000s 2nd wave: since IPCC AR4

Based on review of the scientific literature

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

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Why Things Aren’t So Simple (cont.)

• Meaning of adaptation – What to aim for, who to involve, which trade-offs– “Structural interpretation”

(keep what we’ve got)

– “Vulnerability interpretation” (create a better world for all)

– “Resilience interpretation” (social-ecological systems thrive for the long-term)

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

• Adaptation outcomes– Pragmatic challenges

• Few projects set clear goals, establish baseline

• Few projects are far enough along to be assessed

• Few projects include monitoring and evaluation components

– Common evaluation challenges• Timing of assessment of effectiveness• Establishing causality between actions >

outcomes• Inevitable normative aspects of evaluation

Why Things Aren’t So Simple

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Why Things Aren’t So Simple (cont.)

• Adaptation outcomes (cont.)– Climate change adaptation-specific challenges

• No end point; dynamic; possibility of tipping points

• Cross-scale and cross-sector interactions• Focus on one climate risk or multiple risks

(i.e. changing risk profile, net risk)?• Uncertainties about future climate, other

systems, and future society’s values, risk tolerance

• Criteria of what and for what purpose?

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Failure-to-Success Continuum

• Maladaptation

• Inadequate response

• Stabilization of a degrading situation

• Repair and recovery

• Building something better

Source: Expanding on Kasperson et al. (1995)

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

From Adaptation Actions to Adaptation Pathways

Adaptation Pathway

Threshold = indicator (or set of indicators) that suggests course correction

T1

T2

T3

T4

Example 1: Setback ----- Seawall -------- Higher seawall ---- (Un)managed retreat --- ?

What is “failure”?

Time to threshold minus lead time= when to startworking on nextadaptation

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

Example 2: Restoration 1—Sediment input –Restoration 2—Upland purchase------ ?

NERRS Science Collaborative

“Success” in the Real World

• Washington State

• Oregon

• California

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

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Successful Adaptation to Climate Change on the West Coast

• Pre-workshop interviews with adaptation leaders (“practitioners”)

• Workshop with scientists and practitioners– “Fishbowl” of case studies– Group discussions– In-depth exploration of issues in small

groups (process, outcomes, tradeoffs)– Evaluation

• Synthesis

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Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Six Key Dimensions of Adaptation Success

Adaptive Capacity• Establish enabling conditions

• Build up social, technical, human, financial etc. capacities

Adaptation Process

* Conduct the assessment and planning process “right”* Engage in continual assessment of adaptation needs

Adaptation Decision-Making

•Select a “good” adaptation option

•Make a “good” adaptation decision

Adaptation Implementation•Successfully implement specific adaptation actions, next step

•Set up ongoing process

Adaptation Outcomes

•Find adaptation outcomes to be “good”, or “acceptable”

•Avoid maladaptation

Adaptation Barriers• Identify and develop effective strategies to overcome barriers to adaptation

(institutional, motivational, political, financial, scientific etc.)

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Measuring Success – with Purpose!Purpose

Six Dimensions of Adaptation Success

Process Decisions Imple-mentation Outcomes Capacity Barriers

Communica-tion/Engage-ment

Inclusivity,meaningful influence

Transpa-rency

Progress/actions taken

Common

vision Facilitation,

Skill

Deliberate planning & decisions

Standards of good

planning

Use of best avail.

science

Timeliness, decisions

made

Minimizing negative impacts

Justification of $ requests

Conside-ration of

non-$ impacts

Benefit-cost ratio, cost effective-

ness, robust

Timeliness, efficiency

Clear targets

Investment in capacity

Creative financing,

leveraging of funds

Accountability/Governance Inclusivity Transpa-

rency

Progress/actions taken

Accomplish-ments, savings, benefits

Capacity needed/

built

Barriers encountered/overcome

Learning support/Adaptive mgmt.

Monitoring & Evaluation

Transpar-ency

Progress/actions taken

Targets

(not) met No-fear learning culture

Incentives for risk taking,

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

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What Might it Mean for a Reserve?

• Climate change stresses– Exacerbating existing

stressors such as sea level/lake level change, inundation and flooding, drought, and changes to freshwater inflows

– Ocean acidification– Shifting species

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Your climate change work• Monitor and study the impacts of climate change

on estuaries • Work with communities to plan for and adapt to

these changes• Design and implement mitigation and adaptation

practices in the construction of facilities and through stewardship projects

• Provide training and education programs to help communities understand and adapt to anticipated local and regional impacts

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

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How will YOU know you’re succeeding?

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

Protected Places

Science

People

NERRS Science Collaborative

NERRS Working Principles

• Engage local communities and citizens to improve stewardship of coastal resources

• Create strong partnerships to enhance the success of Reserve programs

• Integrate research, education, and stewardship to address complex coastal problems

• Implement best management practices at reserves to lead by example

• Seek regional collaborations to extend the influence of reserve programs and products.

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Approach to this Specific Focus• Overarching NERRS-focused goal: Help reserves – Define “success” for you

– Develop useful, impactful metrics to track progress (along adaptation pathway)

– Learn from each other (through a multiple-site, comparative approach)

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

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Approach to this Specific Focus• Overarching broader goal– Share lessons with regional partners, other

reserves, coastal scientists and managers faced with similar challenges

– Contribute to national indicator system– Contribute to broader “M&E” discussion in the

adaptation community

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Approach• Multiple sites• Comparative• Involving internal and

external stakeholdersCriteria• Geographic representation

across NERRS• Reserves with active

adaptation efforts• Capacity to take on effort

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

NERRS Science Collaborative

Year Work elements

PY1 - 2015

• Identification and selection of Reserve collaborators• Review and background research• Establishment of comparative framework• Reserve visit, visioning workshop, development of initial set of

indicators/metricsPY2 - 2016

• Virtual and in-person check-in, refinement of indicators/metrics• Identification and addressing of challenges• Initial comparative analysis

Out-years

• Virtual and in-person check-in, refinement of indicators/metrics• Identification and addressing of challenges• Deeper comparative analysis• Concluding in-person review and stakeholder workshop• Lesson sharing

ApproachContext Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

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Co-Design• It’s got to work for you and

serve your needs!• It should produce results

that are robust, transferable, useful to others

• We all have constraints– People capacity– Time– Fit with your work plans– Money

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A

Source: Cowell et al. (2013)

NERRS Science Collaborative

A Place to Start

• If you are interested:– Appoint a contact person at your NERR with

whom I could be in contact– Send me information about your climate change

adaptation-related work– Internally discuss your interest and resources for

participating in this– Early next year, let me know your interest

(reasonable date TBD based on discussion here)

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Your Questions

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Thank you!Susi Moser, Ph.D.Susanne Moser Research & Consulting andStanford University

Email: promundi@susannemoser.comWeb: www.susannemoser.com

Book available from:http://www.routledge.com/books/details/9780415525008/

http://www.amazon.com/Successful-Adaptation-Climate-Change-Changing/dp/0415525004

Acknowledgments: Max Boykoff and >40 book contributors; Amy Snover, Hannah Gosnell, Steve Adams, Lara Whitely-Binder, Adina Abeles on project examining Successful Adaptation to Climate Change along the US West Coast; along with project funders (NOAA, Moore Foundation. Stanford University).

Context Success The Challenge Approach Co-Design Q&A