Climate Change

Anca Brookshawon behalf of most of the C3S team

New C3S act iv i t ies

C3S General Assembly, October 2019

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• Reanalysis and data assimilation• Climate predictions and projections• Extreme events and attribution• Environmental predictions and sectoral applications (use cases and

demonstrators)

O u t l i n e

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E R A 5 - L a n dIn the past year:

• Production and verification of Jan 1981- Apr 2019 period

• Construction of landing pages in the CDS• Online documentation• User support enabled• Publication of the period Jan 2001 – Apr 2019

Hourly fieldsMonthly fields 50 surface variables (hydrology, radiation, snow, etc.) 9 km resolution (0.1 degrees in the CDS)

For next GA expected:

• Suite run operationally• Timely updates (reduce delay to 2-3 months)• NRT production implemented• Production and verification of 1950-1980 period• Full validation against independent datasets• Publication of 1981-2000 period (possible back-

extension too)• Peer-reviewed document

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A d d e d v a l u e o f h i g h e r r e s o l u t i o n + t i m e l i n eERA-Interim (79 km) ERA5 (31 km) ERA5-Land (9 km)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Technical developmentsTechnical tests Operational

Production in NRT

Start production 1st period (*)

CalibrationScout runs

Set up

Today

Start production

2nd period (**)

Publication 1st period in the CDS (*)

COPE

RNIC

US

2.0

Start production back-extension (***)

Production Phase

(*) 1st period: 2001-2019(**) 2nd period: 1981-20 (***) back-extension: 1950-1980

ClimateChange • Development of an Ensemble Data Assimilation method for assimilation of ocean

surface variables;• Work involves development of NEMOVAR and implementation in the ECMWF system.

This will improve the future coupled ERA6, and is expected to improved initialization of seasonal forecasts.

• Contract (C3S_321b) - started in 2019; expected to finish in early 2021. Contractors:– French Institute for Research in Computer Science and Automation (INRIA) – Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique

(CERFACS)– UK Met Office– Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation (CMRE)

D a t a a s s i m i l a t i o n f o r o c e a n s u r f a c e v a r i a b l e s

ClimateChange • C3S_34c: Prototype decadal prediction service

• C3S_34d: World-wide CORDEX simulations for the CDS• C3S_34e: Link between CDS toolbox and the ESGF compute nodes: design and

implementation

All bids/contracts currently under evaluation/negotiation.

C l i m a t e p r o j e c t i o n s

ClimateChange • Initiates in response to user requirements collected since beginning of C3S,

and planned following a workshop (held in February) with providers and potential users of such information

• Two main areas of activity: – technical elements: bias correction, verification, data encoding– case studies for user-relevant applications

• Infrastructure/water management • Agriculture (SPEI)• Insurance (tropical and extratropical storms)• Energy

P r o t o t y p e d e c a d a l p r e d i c t i o n s e r v i c e

ClimateChange • World-wide CORDEX simulations for the CDS – non-European regions

– Bring data already at ESGF in line with C3S requirements (paralleling quality control and service implemented for European CORDEX regions)

– Bring in ESGF data not yet available there (usually produced by ‘other’ modelling groups)

– Make available data from multi-region experiments (e.g. CORDEX-CORE)– Establish operational connection with the IPCC climate atlas

• Robust operations on CMIP climate projections through the CDS toolbox– Design interface between CDS toolbox and ESGF compute layer– Develop, test, implement Web Processing Services (WPS) for data volume

reduction– Ensure operational ‘status’ for this facility (reliable availability, parallel use,

scalability…)

N e w d a t a a n d o p e r a t i n g c a p a b i l i t y i n t h e C D S

ClimateChange C3S attribution workshop – held in Prague in October 2017

Request for proposals: Initial attribution roadmap – May-September 2018

Invitation to tender: Extreme events and attribution (C3S_62) – Q2 2019

Communication of extreme events in the context of a changing climate;

‘Slow’ attribution of past events, to refine protocols and standards;

Inclusion of data and tools in the CDS;

Quality Assurance (QA) of methodology, including contribution from

Advisory Board

Possibly ‘fast’ attribution of current events, if QA sufficient

Service evolution

Contract under negotiation

E x t r e m e e v e n t s a n d a t t r i b u t i o n s e r v i c e

ClimateChange

E n v i r o n m e n t a l f o r e c a s t i n g a p p l i c a t i o n s

Aim: provision of data and tools to improve environmental monitoring and forecasting applications

• Current phase: pre-operational status - setting up workflows; to be completed by Dec 2020.• Operational phase, including all produced data available through CDS, planned for next phase

of C3S.• C3S_432 - 3 lots:

– Lot 1: High-resolution global forcing data in near real-time– Lot 2: Global near real-term surface information mapping– Lot 3: Global multi-model hydrological seasonal predictions

Lot 1 and 3 still to be awarded, lot 2 under negotiation.

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E n v i r o n m e n t a l f o r e c a s t i n g a p p l i c a t i o n sLot 1: High-resolution global forcing data in near real-time

– Global, 1 arc min resolution; hourly time resolution, daily update frequency– Variables: include precipitation, radiation, temperature, humidity– 2-3 days latency for timely product; consolidated product with ~1-2 weeks latency; ~2-3

years product – Merge of in-situ and satellite observations and reanalysis

Lot 2: Global near real-term surface information mapping– Global, km-scale resolution; monthly means; 1-2 years latency– Variables: to include e.g. orography, soil texture and depth, land use/ cover including urban,

vegetation state indicators, surface water bodies– Multi-source product

Lot 3: Global multi-model hydrological seasonal predictions– Global, 0.25 deg or finer resolution;– 20-years reforecasts + real time daily forecasts up to 7 months updated monthly – Variables: application-scale bias-corrected precipitation and temperature, evaporation,

runoff, river discharge– Multi-source product

ClimateChange Use cases: develop services based on C3S data and / or toolbox infrastructure.

Use cases aim to demonstrate a sustainable business plan and service specification that clearly showcase the value of C3S in their service offering. The contracts are focused on data integration, capacity building and outreach rather than R&D.

Cases selected include:

• Advanced climate analytics for the agricultural insurance sector on a global scale, based on a suite of crop-specific climate indices

• Climate risk assessment for ports: using predicted changes in sea level rise and tidal range and model sedimentation, determine changes to port access and operability

• Bespoke bias correction and downscaling for wind industry• Applicational of bio pesticides• Services for the infrastructure and finance sectors

U s e a n d d e m o c a s e s

ClimateChange Demonstrators of C3S data and infrastructure: examples aiming to maximise the impact and

visibility of C3S, showing the value across multiple sectors. These examples do not have to be underpinned by a business model, but by communication potential.

Cases selected include:- Soil erosion- Bird migration- African agriculture - Education: in support of UK and International Baccalaureate syllabus, provide climate

projection data for solar radiation, wind and temperature indices designed to allow students to explore the impact of climate change on energy production.

A number of use and demo cases will be showcased at the thematic fair on Tuesday.

U s e a n d d e m o c a s e s